Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

**~~swabian~~** · January 21, 2021, 08:45 PM

@PontifexMaximus

The world around you is struggling for you (included) to adapt to it? Even though you don't really deserve it. Does that make you feel proud of yourself?

**PointOfViewGun** · January 22, 2021, 01:54 AM

Originally Posted by Pontifex Maximus

Doom. Doom. Really? This disease has a 99.6% recovery rate. You want to destroy economies and risk even more detrimental effects related to depression, isolation, suicide, etc over a disease in which 99.6% of people who get it recover. And you think your position is the intelligent one. lol

This is the same mentality that says in a country with 15% unemployment rate enjoys an 85% employment. It also incorrectly assumes that lack of lock down measures means people continue their lives as if nothing is happening.

Originally Posted by Legio_Italica

This has been known in principle for years, even considering diseases that are less infectious than Covid.
This comports with the findings we are seeing emerge from the current crisis, which is why so many experts are sounding the alarm:

The containment approach in New Zealand was not costly (compared to other alternatives). It was sustainable as it was very practical helping New Zealanders enjoy normalcy that allowed them to support their economy with much less disrupted production and service. Inflexibility is not a valid concern to have here. Basically, these articles are either misguided or just dead wrong.

**sumskilz** · January 22, 2021, 03:33 AM

Originally Posted by Ludicus

It depends, Medical Research Council Advises on How to Anonymise ...
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Alon Kaufman holds a PhD. in Computational Neuroscience and machine learning from the Hebrew University and an MBA from Tel Aviv University. He is CEO and Co-Founder at Duality Technologies.
He says,
“The ability to connect between vaccination outcomes and longitudinal patient records is crucial for researchers seeking to understand the vaccine’s long-term impact and its correlation with pre-existing conditions and other health parameters. And while reports suggest that Israel is only sharing statistical data, there is understandable concern about the effects of such data sharing on individual citizens’ privacy.”

When I said that I consider the privacy concern paranoid, I assumed that they were sharing personal health records rather than statistical data alone. I also assumed that the personal health records were anonymized as they would be in any trial. This will be a huge benefit to Pfizer and to scientific understanding of this vaccine in particular and of mRNA vaccines in general.

The fact of the matter is that the personal records already exist in a national database attached to people's real names and real IDs, which medical professionals and administrative staff have access to. Of course this serves an important function, and of course there are rules about when and how it is accessed, but if one feels inclined to get paranoid about medical records, there is certainly more potential for abuse in the national health database itself as compared to the anonymized version Pfizer might have received, even if imperfectly anonymized.

The deal benefits Israelis and the data sharing benefits everyone. I can't see why Pfizer would want to spent time or money trying to somehow connect anonymized data to real people, but the slim risk that if could happen seems like a tiny price to pay for ending the pandemic in Israel months early. If wartime-like justifications can be used to restrict citizens' movements and close their businesses, certainly it is a lesser issue to share anonymized versions of citizens' medical records for the purpose of combating the virus.

I don't mind that people feel the need to discuss the issue, since public awareness is part of what keeps a system honest, but I don't think there is anything to be concerned about. Google almost certainly knows considerably more about each and every Israeli citizen (and nearly everyone else) than any government database does.

**Infidel144** · January 22, 2021, 05:25 AM

Originally Posted by Ludicus

Schools were closed today, but its not enough. Aumento “notável” de casos em Portugal ligado ao ... - Público
Use the google translator.

Haven't you been calling for schools to be re-opened?

**Lord Thesaurian** · January 22, 2021, 07:13 AM

Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun

The containment approach in New Zealand was not costly (compared to other alternatives). It was sustainable as it was very practical helping New Zealanders enjoy normalcy that allowed them to support their economy with much less disrupted production and service. Inflexibility is not a valid concern to have here. Basically, these articles are either misguided or just dead wrong.

“Scientific studies are wrong because I like New Zealand” isn’t even an argument in its own right. Even if it were, it doesn’t hold up to a basic country comparison. Taiwan has thus far reported the lowest Covid death rate per million of any populous country in the world and a far lower incidence rate compared with NZ, despite the former having no lockdown. The contrast is even more stark when considering Taipei’s metro area alone is nearly 50% larger than NZ’s entire population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

**PointOfViewGun** · January 22, 2021, 08:03 AM

Originally Posted by Legio_Italica

No, you are. Even as you’re busy holding up NZ as a model rather than an outlier, you apparently don’t even know what you’re talking about. Taiwan has thus far reported the lowest Covid death rate per million of any populous country in the world and a far lower incidence rate compared with NZ, despite the former having no lockdown. The contrast is even more stark when considering Taipei’s metro area alone is nearly 50% larger than NZ’s entire population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

How does this prove me wrong? If you're gonna throw a "no, you" quality argument you should at least try to be remotely sensible. You can not claim New Zealand to be an outlier by using an actual outlier, Taiwan. Taiwan, thanks to the previous SARS outbreak, got many things right and moved very quickly. You can certainly argue that a pandemic can be battled with without severe lock down measures. There is nothing wrong with that other than the fact that it's not really feasible for USA and Europe. To argue that lock downs collectively provide no benefit is outright false. Nonetheless, Taiwan's experience says nothing about New Zealand's experience.

**antaeus** · January 22, 2021, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by Legio_Italica

“Scientific studies are wrong because I like New Zealand” isn’t even an argument in its own right. Even if it were, it doesn’t hold up to a basic country comparison. Taiwan has thus far reported the lowest Covid death rate per million of any populous country in the world and a far lower incidence rate compared with NZ, despite the former having no lockdown. The contrast is even more stark when considering Taipei’s metro area alone is nearly 50% larger than NZ’s entire population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You're both right to a degree.

New Zealand's success (so far) is evidence of the effectiveness a lockdown approach can have (Australia has had similar success) - both countries are largely open for business and lockdown free currently (I just got back from a week long road trip holiday - was great), and in a much better position to recover than most of Europe or North America. But it isn't the only successful approach. And lockdowns have failed noticeably elsewhere.

Again, the effectiveness of any of these approaches seems to stem from the effectiveness of communication from government, and the buy-in from the population (and the two are entirely linked). Any study that seeks to show how well an approach works without including detailed investigation into trust in government and effective communications, is a flawed study.

**Lord Thesaurian** · January 22, 2021, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun

How does this prove me wrong? If you're gonna throw a "no, you" quality argument you should at least try to be remotely sensible. You can not claim New Zealand to be an outlier by using an actual outlier, Taiwan. Taiwan, thanks to the previous SARS outbreak, got many things right and moved very quickly. You can certainly argue that a pandemic can be battled with without severe lock down measures. There is nothing wrong with that other than the fact that it's not really feasible for USA and Europe. To argue that lock downs collectively provide no benefit is outright false. Nonetheless, Taiwan's experience says nothing about New Zealand's experience.

It proves you wrong because A) you’ve repeatedly rejected globally comprehensive scientific studies based solely on your preference for one specific case and B) Even on such a reductive, case by case basis, NZ didn’t achieve objectively superior results due to their lockdown strategy when compared to another island nation that had no lockdown. You have no argument and are shifting goalposts from one post to the next to cheerlead lockdowns for whatever bizarre reason. If NZ’s experience is not an outlier, neither is Taiwan. You can’t have it both ways.

**PointOfViewGun** · January 22, 2021, 08:46 AM

Originally Posted by Legio_Italica

It proves you wrong because A) you’ve repeatedly rejected globally comprehensive scientific studies based solely on your preference for one specific case and B) Even on such a reductive, case by case basis, NZ didn’t achieve objectively superior results due to their lockdown strategy when compared to another island nation that had no lockdown. You have no argument and are shifting goalposts from one post to the next to cheerlead lockdowns for whatever bizarre reason. If NZ’s experience is not an outlier, neither is Taiwan. You can’t have it both ways.

Yes, I've repeatedly pointed out the shortcoming of studied you claimed to be comprehensive when they didn't include New Zealand. You might wanna check what comprehensive means. I am directly addressing what you and your sources claim. Making you stick to them is not goal post moving. New Zealand is an example for how lock downs are done largely effectively that limited economic toll of a pandemic. Your studies ignore it while passing judgment on lock down measures categorically. Still, none of that says anything about whether what I said was false or not. You need to make your arguments little more coherent than that. You also can't claim that something proves me wrong and then say that I have no argument. Your accusations need to be coherent as well.

**Lord Thesaurian** · January 22, 2021, 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun

Yes, I've repeatedly pointed out the shortcoming of studied you claimed to be comprehensive when they didn't include New Zealand. You might wanna check what comprehensive means. I am directly addressing what you and your sources claim. Making you stick to them is not goal post moving. New Zealand is an example for how lock downs are done largely effectively that limited economic toll of a pandemic. Your studies ignore it while passing judgment on lock down measures categorically. Still, none of that says anything about whether what I said was false or not. You need to make your arguments little more coherent than that. You also can't claim that something proves me wrong and then say that I have no argument. Your accusations need to be coherent as well.

Again, you haven’t pointed out any methodological shortcomings in the studies I’ve cited nor argued against their conclusions, and insisting otherwise just underscores the baseless dishonesty of your argumentation. Debunking your ad hoc arguments doesn’t make my consistent and empirically proven conclusions incoherent just because you say so.

**Ludicus** · January 22, 2021, 12:53 PM

Originally Posted by sumskilz

The deal benefits Israelis

I’m trying to understand the reason why Israel pays more, and on top of that, in exchange for vaccine, shares data with Pfizer. No, it does not seem a win-win situation. Regarding the compensation scheme, Israel should be paying less, not more. Well, extorsion is a ugly word.
Israel will reportedly pay much more than US, EU for Pfizer ...

American government will be charged $39 for each two-shot dose, and the European bloc even less, but Jerusalem said to agree to pay $56

And I just finished reading ...
Successes and failures in Israel's vaccination efforts. | MIT ...
Hadas Ziv, head of policy and ethics at Physicians for Human Rights-Israel. She was part of the expert team that presented covid-19 vaccine policy recommendations to the Israeli government. She says about the deal,

If indeed Israel is leading in vaccinating its population, and you do want to learn about the efficacy and adverse effects, why not give this information for free for all the health ministries and systems and laboratories? It's a global challenge. Why make Pfizer the only one with this knowledge? I don't know. This is something that we are trying to look into.

In Europe, we are following a different approach. On Twitter,Ursula von der Leyen,

We're launching an EU-wide platform for scientists/researchers to store, share & analyse #coronavirus data. By working together to improve testing+treatment & sharing expertise to develop a vaccine, we'll overcome this virus. I invite all researchers to join the EU data platform.

And... Israel-Pfizer vaccine deal points to 'data for doses ... - France 24

Altshuler has also raised concern about data security and what she terms "sub-group analysis" -- meaning information sharing with Pfizer based on categories that are more detailed than simply age and gender.

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About Palestinians vs. covid vaccination, Hadas Ziv writes,

We do not give the vaccinations to the Palestinians in the occupied territories. The [Israelis and Palestinians] are in constant movement and they meet each other. And so not only morally—I speak mostly about the moral obligation to give them vaccinations—but also from a utilitarian public health aspect, we must.

Citizens and permanent residents of Israel are eligible for vaccination according to the age groups. However, Israel also controls the West Bank and Gaza Strip. There’s lots of arguments whether it’s occupation or not, whether it’s apartheid or not. But I look at it from, what power we have, and what responsibility we have.

If we control how much water they [Palestinians] have, what they are allowed to bring in or out from Gaza, what equipment, what people, or what expertise, we have a tremendous effect on the economy, on their health system, and of course, on their capacity to deal with public health crises. I think Israel is obligated to take the Palestinians as part of their responsibility.

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On the other side, Israel has a difficult task ahead of it, Officials concerned by low vaccination rate among Arab Israelis

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Changing the subject.
Here and everywhere, young people hospitalized with COVID-19 face substantial adverse outcomes. On January 18, hospitalization by age rate, General Infirmary and UCI intensive care (Registo de doentes covid-19 internados de enfermaria geral e UCI por grupo etário no dia 18 de janeiro de 2021 © DGS)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

Today, a new record: ICU,715. General infirmary, 5779 -and numbers are rising at an alarming rate.

EDIT - New coronavirus variant 'may be more deadly', UK warns

Patrick Vallance, the UK's Chief Scientific Adviser, said the new variant could be around 30 percent more deadly, although he stressed that only sparse data was available.
"There is evidence that there's an increased risk for those who have the new variant, compared to the old virus," Vallance said.
Among men aged 60, around 10 in 1,000 would be expected to die after catching the original strain, he said, whereas the number rises to "13 or 14" for the new strain.
"You will see that across the different age groups as well, a similar sort of relative increase in the risk," added the scientific adviser.

I hope they are wrong.
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The situation in the US. A must read, long article to read right now.
Where the Pandemic Will Take America in 2021 - The Atlantic

It’s worth quoting,

Already, conspiracy theorists, QAnon supporters, and far-right groups believe COVID-19 to be a hoax or a nonissue, and this network, alongside traditional anti-vaccine activists, will downplay or disparage the vaccines...Meanwhile, some 42 percent of Republicans currently say they would refuse a vaccine. (1)

(1) KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020 | KFF

The Denialist Playbook - Scientific American

...is now erupting around the coronavirus. Attitudes and behaviors concerning the threat posed by the coronavirus (doubting the science), the efficacy of lockdowns and mask wearing (freedoms being eroded) and alternative treatments (gadflies over experts) are being driven as much or more by rhetoric than by evidence.

Another seminal article. It’s about the global and regional trends in the US, Western Europe, Western Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe- From the Fringes to the Forefront: How Far-Right Movements Across the Globe Have Reacted to Covid-19.

Just to conclude- its also worth remembering that the term "negationism" emerged 30 years ago, after the French neologism "negationnisme" coined by Henry Rousso, to designate the stance of those who denied the industrial scale extermination of the Jews by the nazis...

**sumskilz** · January 22, 2021, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by Ludicus

I’m trying to understand the reason why Israel pays more, and on top of that, in exchange for vaccine, shares data with Pfizer. No, it does not seem a win-win situation. Regarding the compensation scheme, Israel should be paying less, not more. Well, extorsion is a ugly word.
Israel will reportedly pay much more than US, EU for Pfizer ...

They paid extra to move to the front of the line. I expect they'll recoup the money via a faster economic rebound.

Regarding what Hadas Ziv has to say, I appreciate that living in an idealistic world of make-believe makes her well-suited for her job. The Palestinian Authority has a deal with Russia to import their Sputnik V vaccine.

**Lord Thesaurian** · January 22, 2021, 02:52 PM

Imagine invoking Godwin’s law to disparage scientific findings that objectively validate objections to lockdown policies. Top kek.

**sumskilz** · January 23, 2021, 05:35 AM

Vaccination doses administered per 100 population (leading countries):

You can see recent data for most countries here.

**PointOfViewGun** · January 23, 2021, 05:42 AM

Originally Posted by sumskilz

Vaccination doses administered per 100 population (leading countries):
You can see recent data for most countries here.

Is there a breakdown of which vaccines Israel applied so far?

**sumskilz** · January 23, 2021, 06:02 AM

Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun

Is there a breakdown of which vaccines Israel applied so far?

No, but if I recall correctly Israel has only received 100,000 doses of Moderna so far, in which case only slightly more than 1 per 100 could be Moderna. The rest would be Pfizer. As far as first versus second dose, both the first and second dose appointments are scheduled at the same time 21 days apart, so that gives a rough idea as to how many of those doses are second doses, assuming people are mostly showing up.

EDIT: Regarding my last sentence, the same website apparently does have this data:

**Infidel144** · January 24, 2021, 07:43 AM

"California keeps key virus data out of public sight
[...]
State health officials said they rely on a very complex set of measurements that would confuse and potentially mislead the public if they were made public."

https://apnews.com/article/sacrament...6f6c621daeaf10

**Infidel144** · January 24, 2021, 10:53 AM

Corona Ordinance Unconstitutional : a landmark judgement in Weimar District Court
Working English translation by Howard Steen (using DeepL) of item reported on German Corona Committee news pages: Amtsrichter in Weimar: Corona-VO verfassungswidrig - 2020 NEWS posted Jan 21st, 2021

A district judge in Weimar has acquitted a man who was to be fined for violating the Corona contact ban by celebrating his birthday with at least seven other parties from a total of eight households, six guests too many under Thuringia's Corona ordinance. The judge's verdict is scathing: The Corona Ordinance is unconstitutional and materially objectionable.

For the first time, a judge has dealt intensively with the medical facts, the economic consequences and the effects of the specific policy.

http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/weimar_ruling/