Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[Ludicus]

Trump, the idiot, March 9.

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

Sure.That's the reason why the U.S. government has now taken unprecedented steps with respect to travel. That's the reason why on March 10, CDC issued updated infection control guidance for healthcare settings, including guidance on the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during a shortage.
That's the reason why the UK asks Rolls- make us ventilators.

No country has healthcare system that can hospitalize 20% of its population at one time. Not even close.

Obviously.

[Genava]

Getting those 80% infected to gain immunity would more than likely spread to the 20% who are at risk. Your plan could lead to thousands of deaths.

Maybe his liberty is above everything. Even thousands of deaths do not reach the value of a very slight limitation on his liberty for a short time.

No country has healthcare system that can hospitalize 20% of its population at one time. Not even close.

If the situation degenerates in Australia, maybe he will understand it.

[Stario]

Geesus Geneva;

Do do you even bother to look at the links i post- I already discussed the CFR & why 3-4% is likely an overestimation due to the biased way CFR is calculated.

But I will add:

Seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on Capitol Hill, estimates that the fatality rate of flu is closer to 0.1%. But even accounting for the mild, yet undiagnosed cases of COVID-19, he said Wednesday, it would still make it “roughly 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”
...Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%

That is ironic because the same guy you just used above -'Anthony Fauci' also estimated the CFR for COVID-19 will prove to be about 1 percent not 3-4% https://reason.com/2020/03/12/is-a-1...-or-good-news/

Interestingly, the individual US driver's odds of dying as a result of an injury sustained in an automobile (which include pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists involved in car crashes) is about 1 in 77 or 1.3 percent.
https://www.cars.com/articles/are-th...1420682154567/

According to your draconian logic, therefore we should also ban all motor vehicles or would it be better to "lock-down/house arrest" the pedestrians? Maybe even deploy the Army to enforce these 'lock-downs'.

[Genava]

Do do you even bother to look at the links i post- I already discussed the CFR & why 3-4% is likely an overestimation due to the biased way CFR is calculated.

Even 1% is 10 times higher than the flu mortality rate (which is really around 0.1%).

According to tour draconian logic we should also ban all motor vehicles or would it be better to "lock-down/house arrest" the pedestrians? Maybe even deploy the Army to enforce these 'lock-downs'.

Even if the mortality rate of the COVID-19 would have been 10%, you still could argue that cancer mortality rate was around 30% before the 1990s.

There is no end in fallacy and sophistic arguing.

[sumskilz]

Interestingly, the individual US driver's odds of dying as a result of an injury sustained in an automobile (which include pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists involved in car crashes) is about 1 in 77 or 1.3 percent.
https://www.cars.com/articles/are-th...1420682154567/

According to your draconian logic, therefore we should also ban all motor vehicles or would it be better to "lock-down/house arrest" the pedestrians? Maybe even deploy the Army to enforce these 'lock-downs'.

I imagine there would be some concern if 50 to 70% of the population were projected to be in an automobile accident over the course of the next few months.

[Stario]

Originally Posted by Sar1n

No country has healthcare system that can hospitalize 20% of its population at one time. Not even close.

As I said these 20% would not be new cases -as I said the mean of covid-19 requiring admission to hospital was around 75-80 all having existing health Mhx of respiratory disease, heart disease, obesity, diabetes, cancer etc.
So most of these 20% would present/have multiple yearly presentations anyways due to their vast medical issues such as diabetes, respiratory disease, hear disease etc anyways (regardless of covid-19 -patient X will frequently present due to COPD/SOB etc anyways).

[Aexodus]

1.3% is still a worrying fatality rate Stario.

[Stario]

Even 1% is 10 times higher than the flu mortality rate (which is really around 0.1%).

So what if its higher than the flu. 1% is so low that it puts it on par with dying as a result of an injury sustained in an automobile (which include pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists involved in car crashes) odds are about 1 in 77 or 1.3 percent.
Yet we don't go banning automobiles or prohibiting people from driving etc.1% CFR is really nothing panic about; you see now, this really is not as bad as the scaremongers + media make it out to be and the approach from the Dutch Prime Minister (was he Dutch going from memory here) seems the more sensible one.

[Copperknickers II]

@Ludicus,
WHO is saying that that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic. So I don't see why heard immunity would not work here. Immunise 80% of the population while isolate & if needed treat the other 20%.
If the UK Health care system cant handle 20% than there is something seriously wrong with it. Besides I am willing to bet out of those 20% most already frequently get admitted anyways with other complications such as COPD, heart disease; Diabetes, obesity. So they would not be new to the system (they most likely already have multiple presentations/admissions every year anyways regardless of contracting covid-19).

It doesn't matter whether they are 'new to the system' or not, it matters whether they require oxygen and respiration in ICU. ICU beds are a tiny proportion of hospital beds - there are only a few thousand in the whole country. The UK healthcare system is one of the best in the world but the idea of adding one million or more new patients in need of ICU beds is totally unthinkable. Unlike everyone else on the internet, I don't have a PhD in Epidemiology, so I really can't judge, but the message from most actual experts I've seen is that herd immunity is a tactic for use over a long time period when you already have an effective treatment, so it does not make sense for acute, fast-spreading illnesses with no cure. Even if you think that the current death rate is exaggerated, we're still talking about a situation where the fast spread of the disease will lead to the health system being totally overwhelmed, thus resulting in a much higher death rate than we have now.

So what if its higher than the flu. 1% is so low that it puts it on par with dying as a result of an injury sustained in an automobile (which include pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists involved in car crashes) odds are about 1 in 77 or 1.3 percent.
Yet we don't go banning automobiles or prohibiting people from driving etc.1% CFR is really nothing panic about; you see now, this really is not as bad as the scaremongers + media make it out to be and the approach from the Dutch Prime Minister (was he Dutch going from memory here) seems the more sensible one.

That is already priced in to the existing health system. And by the way, we DO prohibit driving quite heavily - you can't drive if you don't have a license or if you are under 17, or if you have consumed alcohol. You can only drive on roads. You must have lights on at night... and so on. You can't drive in other countries unless you do a shitton of paperwork (notwithstanding free movement areas). The controls on driving are really way stricter than the controls on walking in public implemented by most European countries so far.

[Genava]

and the approach from the Dutch Prime Minister (was he Dutch going from memory here) seems the more sensible one.

1. Netherlands are closing bars, restaurants, schools etc. So it is still an active policy.
2. I bet Mark Rutte will change his mind in a few days.

[Genava]

Unlike everyone else on the internet, I don't have a PhD in Epidemiology, so I really can't judge, but the message from most actual experts I've seen is that herd immunity is a tactic for use over a long time period when you already have an effective treatment, so it does not make sense for acute, fast-spreading illnesses with no cure.

Exactly, this is why everybody is speaking of "flatten the curve".

“People have misinterpreted the phrase herd immunity as meaning that we’re going to have an epidemic to get people infected,” says Graham Medley at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Medley chairs a group of scientists who model the spread of infectious diseases and advise the government on pandemic responses. He says that the actual goal is the same as that of other countries: flatten the curve by staggering the onset of infections. As a consequence, the nation may achieve herd immunity; it’s a side effect, not an aim. Indeed, yesterday, U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock stated, “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy.” The government’s actual coronavirus action plan, available online, doesn’t mention herd immunity at all. “The messaging has been really confusing, and I think that was really unfortunate,” says Petra Klepac, who is also an infectious-disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “It’s been a case of how not to communicate during an outbreak,” says Devi Sridhar, a public-health specialist at the University of Edinburgh.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/

[Stario]

It doesn't matter whether they are 'new to the system' or not, it matters whether they require oxygen and respiration in ICU

I doubt all 20% admitted would require ICU bed or Invasive Ventilation etc. Oxygen therapy can also be admitted in the wards etc.

[Ludicus]

I imagine there would be some concern if 50 to 70% of the population were projected to be in an automobile accident over the course of the next few months.

Well said +1
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Edit. Meanwhile, Trump sparks anger by calling coronavirus the 'Chinese virus"
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For those who understand Portuguese,


In Brazil, Bishop Macedo said that the coronavirus is nothing more than a strategy by Satan and the media to induce people to panic. I quote,
"My friend and my friend, don’t worry about the coronavirus. Because this is Satan’s tactic, or one more tactic. Satan works with fear, dread. It works with doubt. And when people are terrified, afraid, in doubt, people are weak, weak and susceptible. Any wind they have is pneumonia for them"

There is a pattern here...Bolsonaro, blessed by Bishop Edir Macedo in front of a crowd of nearly 10,000 faithful at the Temple of Solomon





Bolsonaro insists: coronavírus crisis? BS, pure hysteria!

15 March, Palácio do Planalto, the official workplace of the President of Brazil, located in the national capital of Brasília.

[Stario]

Herd immunity is a tactic for use over a long time period when you already have an effective treatment, it does not make sense for acute, fast-spreading illnesses with no cure

It can be risky. You'd have to know enough about the virus. Covid-19 seems to be mild - WHO reports 80% of people don't need hospitalisation and show only mild symptoms to asymptomatic.
It only seems to be deadly to the elderly/weak. (obviously you would still try to isolate the vulnerable groups) while encouraging herd immunity in the rest of the population.
Certainly what I've seen personally also seem consistent with the WHO report.
Then once a cure/vaccine is available used on the rest of the population/the vulnerable groups/anyone that wishes to get vaccinated etc.
Hopefully by this stage 50-60% of population is also immune due to herd immunity- this hopefully should ease the burden etc.
But ye it would be heard immunity in the context of 'flattening the curve'.

[Genava]

The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...hat-to-expect/

What does a case load of this size mean for health care system? That’s a big question, but just two facets — hospital beds and masks — can gauge how Covid-19 will affect resources.

The U.S. has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people (South Korea and Japan, two countries that have seemingly thwarted the exponential case growth trajectory, have more than 12 hospital beds per 1,000 people; even China has 4.3 per 1,000). With a population of 330 million, this is about 1 million hospital beds. At any given time, about 68% of them are occupied. That leaves about 300,000 beds available nationwide.

The majority of people with Covid-19 can be managed at home. But among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/...wers-covid-19/

Hospitals don’t survive financially in the United States by keeping beds open and equipment idle. They have enough equipment to be cost-effective, but still retain capacity to care for extra people in emergencies. But those emergencies do not account for what we are seeing now. It’s very possible that many of the ventilators are being used right now for patients with other illnesses. They’re also not mobile, and local outbreaks will quickly surpass the numbers of ventilators and respiratory therapists.
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/world...us/ar-BB115P9m

[Stario]

the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three.https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...hat-to-expect/

Ah well there you go, so it's even better that the 20% WHO reported -only 5% need hospitalisation; 2% ICU; 1% Ventilation (I assume this includes both invasive & non-invasive- non-invasive again can be done on the wards or even at home).

[Genava]

Ah well there you go, so it's even better that the 20% WHO reported -only 5% need hospitalisation; 2% ICU; 1% Ventilation (I assume this includes both invasive & non-invasive- non-invasive again can be done on the wards or even at home).

You are confusing numbers here. WHO says 80% are mild or asymptomatic. By the way, here are the numbers from a model extrapolated to the whole population. If the disease targets mainly elderly and sick people, the rate of hospitalization is higher, like in Italy and China.

And all these numbers are showing you why it is nothing like the flu.

(I assume this includes both invasive & non-invasive- non-invasive again can be done on the wards or even at home).

You are assuming a lot of things to keep your opinion.

[Stario]

You are confusing numbers here. WHO says 80% are mild or asymptomatic.

Yeah was going from memory; i remembered 80% (when i read report few day ago) so I must have assumed 20% need hospitalisation. It's good to know it much less- only 5%. Another reason why all this panic/draconian laws are unnecessary.

So lets see now we have thus far established:
1. CFR for COVID-19 will prove to be only about 1% (roughly equivalent to the odds of dying due to injury as a result of automobile accident). Yet we don't impose "lock-out" laws for pedestrians...hmmm go figure...

2. 5% need hospitalisation; 2% ICU, 1% Ventilation. So what on earth is going on in Italy? Is it politics/draconian laws/poor legislation getting in the way?!

3. Maybe Dutch PM is on the right track after all.

[Genava]

So what on earth is going on in Italy?

You mean what's going on everywhere? Why do you think ALL the European countries are trying to flatten the curve?

[Stario]

You mean what's going on everywhere? Why do you think ALL the European countries are trying to flatten the curve?

Hopefully the Dutch can show'zem howsit done!!!