Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #2041
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    These two points go hand in hand. You have been reluctant to address them and continued to argue as if since only people with such conditions are in danger there is nothing to worry about. That is obviously a false assessment. It's no wonder why you're once again trying to deflect instead of talking about the actual points. You're not really addressing these points. It shouldn't have been this hard if your position had any merit.
    What's your point? What are you actually even talking about here?



    It's not a study. It's a blog post by a controversial self-described climate scientist who is know to be using faulty data in his writing.
    Its an analysis. Look at the reference list he provides and follow-up the references- you might actually learn something.



    You have repeatedly argued that COVID19 deaths are comparable to influenza. You did that over and over and over and over again. Pretty much every word you utter is wrong there. For starters, you're not basing your number on a study but on a blog post.
    Yes, Covid19 is comparable to influenza and again you deflect, you haven't been able to refute anything in the analysis paper here. that clearly states the following:

    "In th
    e absence of a change in trends, it seems likely that the epidemic will peter out after a thousand or so more deaths, implying an overall infection fatality rate of 0.06% of the population (0.04% excluding COVID-19 deaths of people in care homes). This is broadly comparable to excess deaths from influenza infections over two successive above-average seasons, such as 2016–17 plus 2017–18."



    The Covid19 analysis that also provides a huge reference list that you can look up and follow-up on. Again follow-up on the reference list; you might learn something.


    Nope. You kinda have as you said no to me pointing out that Sweden utilized many lock down measure. This has been a point you consistently ignored. Sweden closed all schools except primary schools and that was done to keep healthcare workers away from their homes. Restaurants and bars have restricted to table service only at at least 1 meter distance which greatly diminished their capacity. Many establishments that have violated social distancing measures were shut down right away. Gatherings over 50 people were banned as well. So, no, what you say is not a fact. It's a distortion of facts. Google reveals as such.
    Again shops, bars, restaurants, and most schools etc, remained open. Sweden did not go into total 'lockdown' and that's a fact... GOOGLE is your best friend!

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus
    There are 502 deaths registered in the database representing an overall lethality of 2.5% of all infected cases at that point (note that cases registered later in the database may not have their final outcome yet). A total of 14.7% of patients needed hospitalization, associated with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 11.1%, while 1.3% were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with an associated CFR of 10.3%. No, the society has not over-reacted. I bet you don't work in an hospital, Stario. You probably live in a parallel universe
    This seems to me to be a relatively mild epidemic according to historical standards, AND it raises the question of why we have gone through the mass panic attack that we have gone through. In the context of Sweden, the IFR for those under 70yo is less than 0.1%, this shows that for most people, covid19 is comparable or even less serious than the flu.
    To a large extent, I blame the hyper-partisan and dishonest media. They have consistently portrayed high CFR rates (often above 10%), as meaningful when scientists know they are not - they do this for 'global warming' & 'natural disasters' too.
    AND yes I currently manage a Covid19 clinic funded by a large hospital; but now I am digressing.
    Last edited by Stario; August 05, 2020 at 09:04 AM.

  2. #2042

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    What's your point? What are you actually even talking about here?
    My points:

    • Diabetes, obesity, hyper tension and other conditions are not rare in the public. They are present in the majority.
    • 2.Such conditions, while present in a great chunk of COVID19 related deaths, are manageable conditions with simple medicine.



    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Its an analysis. Look at the reference list he provides and follow-up the references- you might actually learn something.
    Not my job. It's yours. You've been hiding behind that blog post as if its been the holy grail. If you actually attempted to address points raised against you I might have been in a better mood to indulge you.


    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Yes, Covid19 is comparable to influenza and again you deflect, you haven't been able to refute anything in the analysis paper here. that clearly states the following:

    "In th
    e absence of a change in trends, it seems likely that the epidemic will peter out after a thousand or so more deaths, implying an overall infection fatality rate of 0.06% of the population (0.04% excluding COVID-19 deaths of people in care homes). This is broadly comparable to excess deaths from influenza infections over two successive above-average seasons, such as 2016–17 plus 2017–18."


    The Covid19 analysis that also provides a huge reference list that you can look up and follow-up on. Again follow-up on the reference list; you might learn something.
    It's really pointless for you to accuse me of deflecting when you're not addressing a single point regarding this part. What can I say? You're banking on ignoring anything that puts a big hole in your claims.


    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Again shops, bars, restaurants, and most schools etc, remained open. Sweden did not go into total 'lockdown' and that's a fact... GOOGLE is your best friend!
    Nice to see you changing your arguments from Sweden not taking any lock down measures to Sweden not going in total lock down. Sure, it's a fact that Sweden didn't go into full lock down mode. Fortunately, nobody argued that they did.
    The Armenian Issue

  3. #2043

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Interviewer:
    Do you have a view on the lockdown skeptics [blah blah Sweden] do you have any truck with the belief the lockdown strategy itself has been a colossal error?
    Special Envoy on Covid-19 to WHO:
    Well we would in the WHO invite countries to do everything possible not to have these complete lockdowns. It is a very blunt tool. That's why we've said right from the beginning [have good strategy, testing, tracing, isolation, support vulnerable]. We would much rather that that's the approach adopted and that therefore lockdowns are not used. So yes we think the Swedish approach has a lot going for it. If lockdowns are going to be applied keep them short [test trace isolate]
    Starts about 29:30:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4LCC7DDn8w

    And:
    Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison
    Christian Bjørnskov
    Aarhus University - Department of Economics and Business; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Center for Political Studies; Institute for Corruption Studies
    Date Written: August 2, 2020
    Abstract
    I explore the association between the severity of lockdown policies in the first half of 2020 and mortality rates. Using two indices from the Blavatnik Centre’s Covid 19 policy measures and comparing weekly mortality rates from 24 European countries in the first halves of 2017-2020, and addressing policy endogeneity in two different ways, I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....tp7b4ByKSlVIUI
    (Under review)

  4. #2044
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointofVieGun
    Not my job. It's yours. You've been hiding behind that blog post
    Here's one more reference for you while you enjoy being a prisoner of your own home (hint click on the blue text to see the report), I am guessing you will have plenty of spare time in the next few months, maybe years (who really knows how long), enjoy the read:->


    "For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020."

    So the CDC now estimates, the IFR of coronavirus to be approximately 0.26%. To put that in contrast, a bad flu season kills 0.2% of people who catch it and we don't annihilate the economy and giveaway our freedoms + liberties over that.

    It's looking more and more like Sweden got it right. The press, which has acted as a 'Pravda' like supporter of lockdowns and medical bureaucracies must really hate Sweden. Sweden did not lockdown -shops, businesses, bars, restaurants, etc remained largely open, Sweden did also not drive a truck through civil liberties.
    PS. I am now accepting reputation points
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; August 06, 2020 at 05:45 AM. Reason: Name-calling.

  5. #2045

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Here's one more reference for you while you enjoy being a prisoner of your own home (hint click on the blue text to see the report), I am guessing you will have plenty of spare time in the next few months, maybe years (who really knows how long), enjoy the read:->
    "For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020."
    So the CDC now estimates, the IFR of coronavirus to be approximately 0.26%. To put that in contrast, a bad flu season kills 0.2% of people who catch it and we don't annihilate the economy and giveaway our freedoms + liberties over that.
    It's looking more and more like Sweden got it right. The press, which has acted as a 'Pravda' like supporter of lockdowns and medical bureaucracies must really hate Sweden. Sweden did not lockdown -shops, businesses, bars, restaurants, etc remained largely open, Sweden did also not drive a truck through civil liberties.
    PS. I am now accepting reputation points
    I see that you continue to deflect from addressing points. However, I'm baffled by the apparent failure to use simple sources. Lets take it at face value and lets take the numbers as you understand them. You're saying that overall infection fatality rate is 0.26% for all people with COVID19 while you're saying that influenza infection fatality rate is 0.2%. That's 0.26% of COVID19 with extreme measures worldwide compared to 0.2% of influenza with relatively free reign for its spread. Do you understand the difference between the two?

    You are likely mistaken about the infection fatality rate of a bad flu season as well. Its closer to case fatality rate. Let's look at 2017-2018 influenza numbers since as far as I remember you mentioned this as a bad flu season. The fatality rate of estimated symptomatic cases was 0.14%. When you consider asymptomatic cases this number is likely to go much lower. Some estimates put asymptomatic influenza cases as high as 75%. That puts infection fatality rate as low as 0.035%. That puts COVID19 7.5 more deadly compared to influenza.

    Now, lets look at data that uses no estimation. According to CDC, influenza related deaths in USA in 2017 was 2 deaths per 100 thousand people. Meanwhile, for COVID19, we have 158,256 deaths in USA as of today. With a population of 328 million people, that is about 48 deaths per 100 thousand people. Once again, that is influenza with free reign vs COVID19 with a lot of measures. If the public followed your train of thought that number of 48 would rise by a lot.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; August 06, 2020 at 05:46 AM. Reason: Continuity.
    The Armenian Issue

  6. #2046

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    ^ to clarify, by POV's own stats you are more likely to be murdered by a black person that to die of flu or covid-19. I consider his professed stats as highly racist and I suggest that perhaps his advancement of disgusting white supremacist stats should be ignored by all and simply cancelled as being disgustingly racist. I am personally offended by these white supremacist and overtly racist opinions.

  7. #2047

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pontifex Maximus View Post
    ^ to clarify, by POV's own stats you are more likely to be murdered by a black person that to die of flu or covid-19. I consider his professed stats as highly racist and I suggest that perhaps his advancement of disgusting white supremacist stats should be ignored by all and simply cancelled as being disgustingly racist. I am personally offended by these white supremacist and overtly racist opinions.
    How did you manage to connect influenza vs COVID19 deaths per capita data to black crime? And how did you manage to get it so wrong? The data for being murdered by a black man per 100,000 population in USA is about 0.9 which is quite lower than being killed by COVID19. About 53 times less to be exact. If you're gonna make such a salty post at least make it intelligent.
    The Armenian Issue

  8. #2048
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pontifex Maximus View Post
    ^ to clarify, by POV's own stats you are more likely to be murdered by a black person that to die of flu or covid-19. I consider his professed stats as highly racist and I suggest that perhaps his advancement of disgusting white supremacist stats should be ignored by all and simply cancelled as being disgustingly racist. I am personally offended by these white supremacist and overtly racist opinions.
    Not even trying to hide the projection.
    Fact:Apples taste good, and you can throw them at people if you're being attacked
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  9. #2049

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Well, easily. You take stats and then you compare them, and then you talk about them. Then, sadly, inevitably people carrying water for the leftist democrat party call you a neo-nazi white supremacist bigot anti-science moron and they try to whitewash you, which is exactly what has happened here, soooo....

  10. #2050

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    If the shoe fits.

  11. #2051

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pontifex Maximus View Post
    Well, easily. You take stats and then you compare them, and then you talk about them. Then, sadly, inevitably people carrying water for the leftist democrat party call you a neo-nazi white supremacist bigot anti-science moron and they try to whitewash you, which is exactly what has happened here, soooo....
    Nobody called you a neo-Nazi white supremacist bigot anti-science moron here. That's just you failing miserably to stand by your assertion.
    The Armenian Issue

  12. #2052

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nobody called you a neo-Nazi white supremacist bigot anti-science moron here. That's just you failing miserably to stand by your assertion.
    Well, I mean, when he doesn't really realize the numbers are that disparaging and throws them out anyway, he doesn't yet realize he's calling himself one.
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
    -Neil deGrasse Tyson

    Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable. Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if we may not eff it after all.

  13. #2053

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nobody called you a neo-Nazi white supremacist bigot anti-science moron here. That's just you failing miserably to stand by your assertion.
    Your lack of argument is telling.

    Though I should thank you for providing me with proof of the liberal bona fides of non-neo nazi anti science white surpremacist. Thanks for that at least. The next time a liberal is like "PAPIEREN" at a checkpoint, I'll show your bone fides.
    Last edited by Lifthrasir; August 09, 2020 at 12:59 AM. Reason: Off-topic part removed

  14. #2054

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    When you say liberal do you mean it as a derogatory term or a compliment?

  15. #2055

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pontifex Maximus View Post
    Your lack of argument is telling.
    Though I should thank you for providing me with proof of the liberal bona fides of non-neo nazi anti science white surpremacist. Thanks for that at least. The next time a liberal is like "PAPIEREN" at a checkpoint, I'll show your bone fides.
    Nobody is getting fooled by your projection.
    The Armenian Issue

  16. #2056

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Neo Nazi Anti Science White Supremacists are all too common.

  17. #2057
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    You are likely mistaken about the infection fatality rate of a bad flu season as well. Its closer to case fatality rate. Let's look at 2017-2018 influenza numbers since as far as I remember you mentioned this as a bad flu season. The fatality rate of estimated symptomatic cases was 0.14%.
    The problem is that the press likes to inflate Covid19 IFR% by including the 80/90/100+ age groups in the count in order to make the virus scarier that it really is. The reality is if you're under 70yo your % chance of dying from civid19 is insignificant/close to zero.

    Under 70 years of age; Covid IFR% drops to 0.09%,
    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391be54f5d959ead9131edb771/infection-fatality-rate-covid-19-stockholm-technical-report.pdf

    And this is in a country like Sweden that didn't drive a truck through civil liberties and whereby shops, restaurants, bars, etc. remained open. This proofs the "draconian lock-downs" that the majority implemented is/was a complete waste of time as it makes little difference apart from 'pooping' on civil liberties and ruining the world's economy.

    Reality is only the old and those in nursing homes are dying. We should have instead done a better job in locking-down/restricting access (IE. who goes in and out), to nursing homes to protect their residence.

    With that said the median length of stay in a nursing home before death was 5 months; so most of these deaths would have occurred anyway by the time this year was over. We are basically ruining the economy for the next 10 years; destroying people's livelihoods, and 'pooping' on civil liberties to increase very old persons (the majority of them with comorbidities such as cancer, heart disease, lung disease ect.), life expectancy by around 5 months. :-<
    This is the classic case of "the cure being worse than the disease"...
    Last edited by Stario; August 09, 2020 at 11:14 AM.

  18. #2058

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    You're doing a great job showing it's not death I have to worry about Stario. You're doing a piss poor job accounting for the crapton of other things this virus has been shown to do to many other age-ranges.

    There's a whole grey range of symptoms this thing will do to you ranging from nothing, but still infected(rather light) to requiring ICU but not kill(dark grey) to kill(hilariously dark). But, you are just accounting for two things. Kill, not kill. You are going after this thing as if I don't have to worry about this thing if I'm under the age of 70. There's a lot of people that get hit pretty hard by it in my age-range.

    Why should I risk letting myself get that sick Stario?
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
    -Neil deGrasse Tyson

    Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable. Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if we may not eff it after all.

  19. #2059

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    For me the issue is never how can I keep myself safe but how can I avoid being one of the trash narcissists who endangers others. I have faith I would survive but I don’t have faith my idiocy if I refused to take simple non intrusive steps wouldn’t kill
    others. But I don’t want to be a murderer. Some people relish the thought of such an achievement so they find reasons why they should be.

  20. #2060
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin
    You're doing a great job showing it's not death I have to worry about Stario. You're doing a piss poor job accounting for the crapton of other things this virus has been shown to do to many other age-ranges.
    90%-95% of deaths have at least one other co-morbidity; I bet it's the cancers, obesity, diabetes, heart disease, COPD, and/or the combination of all the former, etc. that are doing "crapton" of other things.

    Why should I risk letting myself get that sick Stario?
    Why should I not be able to go outside and exercise (this is what many Victorians are facing right now, they are not allowed to leave the house even for exercise), because you're at risk -due to you having one or more comorbidities IE. obesity, COPD, diabetes (because this is a fact 90-95% of people in ICU and/or dying have at least one or more comorbidity- i already pointed this out and gave links in previous posts).
    If you're at high risk (most likely due too poor lifestyle choices IE. lack of exercise, poor diet, too much smoking etc.) than by all means stay at home...
    If you're unwilling to take the 0.09% risk of dying (assuming you're under 70), by all means stay at home -but you ought to be scared getting inside/operating a motor vehicle and/or crossing a pedestrian crossing too in that case...
    Last edited by Stario; August 09, 2020 at 10:50 PM.

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