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Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #21
    Genava's Avatar Centenarius
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeft View Post
    Not calling the Coronavirus the 'Hong Kong Fluey' seems like a wasted opportunity to me...
    I prefer calling it the Kung-Flu.
    Open Access Defenders Step Up to Save ‘Pirate Bay of Science’
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  2. #22
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    A few days ago, Gauden Galea, the WHO's representative in China, declared that,
    To my knowledge, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science. It has not been tried before as a public health measure. We cannot at this stage say it will or it will not work
    Since then, at least 10 cities have been put on lockdown (40 million or more).
    update: 13 cities from the epicenter.
    --
    As a side note-China banned the trade of wild animals,alive or dead, in markets, supermarkets, restaurants, etc. SARS epidemics was traced to consumption of wild animals (the source of the disease) in Guangzhou.A temporary ban isn't enough.
    Edit, just a few minutes ago-the European Commission said it had activated the EU civil protection mechanism following a request from France (3 confirmed cases)
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 28, 2020 at 11:41 AM.
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  3. #23
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Typically in Australia we respond pretty effectively: if anything we over-react because of the potential of transgenic viruses to develop into much deadlier forms, and our history of introducing destructive bioforms.

    There were heaps of temporary clinics set up in preparation for the swine flu outbreak in 2009, mandatory isolation periods for anyone with any flu symptoms and critical assets like health professionals were monitored hard. Plenty of people were given a weeks leave to break infection chains. At the time I was involved in some education institutions and was largely unaffected, but I saw some colleagues disappear for a couple of weeks (typically if their kid got a runny nose) and the cost did not match to actual body count.

    Australia's biosecurity systems have performed well over time. We're largely free of plague, rabies and few other Old World blights (officially zero Ebola cases). However there's little defence against diseases which are infectious during incubation: two weeks is an eternity given we have direct flights from Wuhan and a large Chinese population, student and resident. China has the will and infrastructure to impose draconian centralised controls and its failing to contain the spread at present, so I guess this one has some play left in it.

    Its funny how that silly game Plague Inc has given people a decent grasp of the issues, such as the progression and mutation of a virus as it spreads. Just chatting with a few of the younger ones in my family and at work and they are all over it. I played it a few times and while hardly GOAT material it at least gives a taste of a set of real world problems.
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  4. #24

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    One must factor in the likelihood that the Politburo kept a lid on information about the outbreak, scale, dangers, etc, until the situation became too severe to control. If unconfirmed reports on the ground are to be believed, the Chinese government is still far from transparent in the information allowed to be published. The proof is in the pudding: it seems unreasonable that the Politburo would lock down whole cities and areas containing millions of people, risking mass panic and confusion, if the situation weren’t of equivalent gravity.
    Given the relatively long incubation period (14 days?) and its highly infectious nature, even before symptoms emerge, China's actions are very prudent to prevent the current infection from being much worse. While not as lethal as SARS, it has the potential to spread much a lot more, and ultimately, result in a higher death count.

    I think it shows that the Chinese government has the courage to take the tough actions to prevent the spread of the disease, I wonder if the US or other governments would have the courage to quarantine LA or New York during New Years to prevent the spread of a similar disease.

  5. #25

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Who would have thought that socialist public healthcare, overpopulation and globalism are a recipe for disaster.

  6. #26

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Madagascar at least will be completely safe.
    "When I die, I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like Fidel Castro, not screaming in terror, like his victims."

    My shameful truth.

  7. #27
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Common Soldier View Post
    Given the relatively long incubation period (14 days?) and its highly infectious nature, even before symptoms emerge, China's actions are very prudent to prevent the current infection from being much worse. While not as lethal as SARS, it has the potential to spread much a lot more, and ultimately, result in a higher death count.

    I think it shows that the Chinese government has the courage to take the tough actions to prevent the spread of the disease, I wonder if the US or other governments would have the courage to quarantine LA or New York during New Years to prevent the spread of a similar disease.
    I guess the definition of “courage” is different for some. For one thing, quarantines tend to backfire, if only because their punitive nature incentivizes people to work against them. For another, I would say initially attempting to keep information about the disease on lockdown so as to protect the Politburo’s public image, just like they did with SARS years back, isn’t very courageous. The outbreak began in early December as far as anyone knows, and the Chinese government routinely arrested courageous people for trying to get the word out. The most generous assessment of these actions could be blamed on the inevitable tendency of authoritarian systems. Local officials tried to keep the situation under wraps to avoid the wrath of their superiors.
    During this time, the city was hosting annual meetings for top municipal and provincial officials (January 7-17). Dali Yang, an expert on Chinese bureaucracy at the University of Chicago, told the Financial Times that this event was most certainly a factor in the toned-down government response.

    "This is a major factor that the authorities in Wuhan city sought to project an air of calm and most likely delayed taking action to stop the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus," Yang said.

    A public-health expert, who asked not to be named, told the Financial Times: "There is a question of whether the alert [was] in place sufficiently quickly this time."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...navirus-2020-1
    Once the cat was out of the bag, the regime has now switched gears to launch a massive response. The reason for both these approaches is political. The Politburo’s first reaction was to hide information that might make the regime look bad or cause public discontent. Once that strategy was no longer viable, they are now trying to cover up the cover up and reassure the Chinese citizenry that the situation is being handled by all means available.

    So to answer your question, no, the US probably wouldn’t quarantine major cities, for the same reason they didn’t close the border with Mexico during the H1N1 outbreak. Mitigation through transparency and public information renders drastic measures like quarantines, that have mixed effectiveness in the first place, counterproductive under most circumstances. This is all the more apparent as we are entering the phase when countries will need to coordinate information and response to meet surge capacity.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Rather than seek to contain the spread of the virus, the US government and health authorities focused their energy and resources on strengthening surge capacity to treat the increasing number of cases and diminish the virus spread. According to a report of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), there were four critical pillars to the mitigation effort: vaccines antivirals medical care and non-medical interventions. Particular attention was focused on ‘decisions that could reduce instances of severe disease and death by accelerating the delivery and use of vaccines; developing integrated plans to protect especially vulnerable populations; and ensuring access to intensive care facilities.

    While the Politburo’s heavy-handed approach was not scientifically grounded, it made perfect political sense. Chinese leaders had strong political incentives to pursue an excessive approach not informed by science and epidemiology. Given the initial mismanagement of the SARS crisis, they were more interested in creating an impression that the government was acting differently this time around, that they indeed cared about the people’s health and wellbeing. On the eve of the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen crackdown on the democracy movement, and in the months leading up to the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic, forceful government action against H1N1 was shown to have helped shore up its legitimacy. Indeed, a survey conducted by the China Youth Daily found that 85 per cent of Chinese people supported the draconian government measures.

    As Caijing magazine noted, the cost borne by public health personnel, H1N1 patients and those who had close contact with them were secondary to the issue of social and economic stability. True, Party leaders emphasised ‘science’ and the ‘rule by law’ in undertaking the anti-H1N1 measures. Yet, when they made H1N1 prevention and control a top priority, and warned that it would punish any failures to contain the spread of the disease, non-scientific and heavy- handed measures became more appealing to local government officials, who found it safer to be overzealous than to be seen as ‘soft’.

    What can we learn from these two countries’ responses to the H1N1 pandemic? A comparison of the effectiveness of the two strategies clearly points to the inferiority of the containment strategy in handling the H1N1 pandemic. The containment approach is costly, unsustainable, inflexible and impractical. When adopted at the very beginning of the outbreak, it may help slow down the transmission of the virus. But, against the backdrop of globalisation, it is impossible to institute barriers against such spread. Moreover, it may complicate efforts of surge capacity building when a shift to mitigation becomes necessary. Interestingly, China looked to a centuries-old approach to contain the rapid spread of the H1N1 flu pandemic, even though both scientific data and historical evidence suggested the limits of this approach.

    https://www.cfr.org › contentPDFWeb resultsComparing the H1N1 Crises and Responses in the US and China - Council on Foreign Relations

  8. #28

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Ah yes, the “courageous” Chinese response of arresting journalists who reported the virus, how brave.

    New numbers released have the disease overtaking SARS in total infections. 5,974 confirmed cases of Coronavirus vs 5,327 SARS confirmed. Less deaths though.

    One thing for sure: Chinese economy is going to get a serious haymaker to the face from this virus.

  9. #29

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    One thing for sure: Chinese economy is going to get a serious haymaker to the face from this virus.
    In short term, yeah.

    I've heard wacky conspiracy theories that the virus was intentionally released to kill off the elderly Chinese who are becoming a burden to their economy.

    Anyway, looks like Wuhan coronavirus is about to become a new member of the flu viruses. Odds are that between vaccines and resistance developed by those who survive, mortality will significantly go down, but the virus will be here to stay.

    Of course, there's still the possibility of a nasty mutation developing as the virus spreads rapidly.

  10. #30
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    The Politburo’s first reaction..
    U.S. officials praise Chinese transparency on virus
    -------
    In my country,Francisco George, ex-Director General of Health,defends constitutional amendment to allow mandatory internment. Reflexão sobre a nova epidemia de coronavírus | Opinião ...
    He is quite right. WHO's update, two hours ago,



    Dr Michael Ryan, the head of the World Health Organization Health Emergencies Programme praised China's response to the deadly outbreak, saying: "The challenge is great but the response has been massive."

    Edit, Nature Medicine China's response to a novel coronavirus stands in stark contrast to the 2002 SARS outbreak response
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 29, 2020 at 12:41 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  11. #31
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    It would be foolhardy to trust China’s word on an issue such as this. They have proven themselves untrustworthy time and again in the past.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Himster View Post
    The trick is to never be honest. That's what this social phenomenon is engineering: publicly conform, or else.

  12. #32
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    It would be foolhardy to trust China’s word on an issue such as this. They have proven themselves untrustworthy time and again in the past.
    What you are saying doesn't make any sense.Think twice before posting.
    Edit,International community praises China's efforts to contain ...
    China Doing Good Job in Combating Virus, German Minister ...
    Wuhan Mayor offers to resign after admitting slow response to ...
    We locked down the city to cut the spread of virus, but it’s likely we’ll leave a bad reputation in history,” Mr Zhou told China Central Television, while wearing a blue surgical face mask. As long as it helps contain the spread of virus, I’m willing to resign as a form of apology. As a local government, after I got the information, I must ask for authorisation before I could disclose it. Many people didn’t understand this at the time.” He said that the response was “no longer belated” after the State Council declared the coronavirus a category B infectious disease subject to category A control on January 20.
    ------
    None of these 195 countries — the U.S. included — is fully prepared...

    The United States ranks 19th — after Australia, Canada, Singapore and more than a half-dozen European countries — in measures that assess the overall risk environment and vulnerability to biological threats.
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 29, 2020 at 01:16 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  13. #33
    Legio_Italica's Avatar Lost in Limbo
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    @Ludicus: from your article:

    U.S. officials praise Chinese transparency on virus — up to a point
    The country has been far more open than during the SARS crisis — but scientists want to know more.

    Gaps in China's transparency are hampering U.S. efforts to get a grip on the spreading Wuhan coronavirus — even as politicians and scientists alike are praising China for being far more forthcoming compared with previous disease outbreaks like SARS.
    China is under intense scrutiny following its poor track record in alerting the international community to other potential global health pandemics. During the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, China was criticized for failing to share information quickly and transparently.

  14. #34
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    China says spread of virus is declining:

    https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/...fying-experts/

    It was fun reading the article comments on this one.

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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    ...
    Once the cat was out of the bag, the regime has now switched gears to launch a massive response. The reason for both these approaches is political. The Politburo’s first reaction was to hide information that might make the regime look bad or cause public discontent. Once that strategy was no longer viable, they are now trying to cover up the cover up and reassure the Chinese citizenry that the situation is being handled by all means available. ...
    Very good points.

    There's a zombie apocalypse novel called World War Z (nothing like the crappy movie) where the outbreak is detected in China but they cover it up at first for political reasons and the succesion of botched responses ensure the disease spreads: its the same with the US.

    It was an oddly perceptive novel, it saw a cynical US VP (Cheney-like) and incompetent President (Jr) ignore the problem in favour of forever wars and then the new president is "one of those people" (they never say he's black but its implied, so Obama) with a dopey grinning VP (basically Biden without the groping)-this was published in 2006 before Obama appeared on the scene, so the author saw a potential for a shift in US politics that did happen. Hopefully Brooks didn't get everything right.
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  16. #36
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    @Ludicus: from your article:
    Gaps in China's transparency are hampering U.S. efforts to get a grip on the spreading Wuhan coronavirus
    That's the worst part of the article, politically biased.
    Assuming this to be the case,can someone explain why in the US, sanitary authorities ask evacuees to stay just three days in a military base. " the risk is very low, they are not in quarantine order". Watch the video. https://youtu.be/uz_1vNLuKyw
    An optimistic approach.
    -------
    Christmas Island quarantine for Aussie evacuee

    ...Victorian health authorities are warning that diners at a Melbourne Chinese restaurant may have been exposed to the coronavirus after a man who ate there tested positive for the virus
    UK govt says Wuhan evacuees to be 'isolated for 14 days'
    Anyone who returns from Wuhan will be safely isolated for 14 days, with all necessary medical attention," Once back on British soil, evacuees will be held at a facility likely on a military base".
    As I said before,
    "However, the Wuhan virus is more dangerous than the SARS. Why? unlike SARS, the new virus is infectious during its incubation period.Add to that the incubation period, the Wuhan virus can be contagious for as many 14 days before the first clinical symptoms. SARS virus was contagious only when patients have symptoms- such as fever or cough. In fact, no cases of SARS were reported among persons who were exposed to a SARS patient before the onset of the patient's symptoms"
    Mark Harris, Professor of Virology, University of Leeds:
    The plans for an organised quarantine of people evacuated from Wuhan makes much more sense than a proposal that people would quarantine themselves. There is now very good scientific evidence that the incubation period before symptoms appear can be as long as 14 days. In addition, there is some limited evidence of spread from people who are not yet showing symptoms. Both of these issues highlight the need for quarantine. Although there are appropriately some concerns raised about the human rights issue, these need to be considered in the light of the wider risk to the population of the potential spread of the virus. Restricting person-to-person contact is the most effective way of preventing this spreading.
    Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham,
    "Given the level of coronavirus infection, it makes sense to quarantine and test people being evacuated form Wuhan City. But we might lose sight of the fact that the outbreak seems more widespread than that and at some time, probably soon, a decision will have to be made about all Britons located in Hubei province and China in general, especially if the virus outbreak continues to escalate. If these people also need to be brought back, then the task in hand would probably become unmanageable.

    The rapidity of this outbreak is startling and certainly much more rapid than Sars. The reasons for this are unclear, but clearly the larger the outbreak grows the more difficult it becomes to contain it using usual infection control measures – identifying then isolating infected people and tracing and monitoring their contacts.
    At the moment, virus that has been exported from China to other countries has not led to significant onward transmission, although the identification of infected individuals in some of those countries that have not had direct contact with China is concerning as it reminds us that the virus has the capability of being passed on.

    There are still too many unknowns – the true scale of the problem, the frequency of symptomless infection, the amount of transmission that occurs by people with and without symptoms, the extent at which infected individuals have travelled and their destination – to be certain. It is certainly possible for this virus to become widespread and eventually become just another circulating human respiratory virus, but it’s still very early days and with little onward transmission in other parts of the world, this might not happen. If this scenario did play out, however, then we need to get a better handle on the relative frequency of severe disease and death so that healthcare structures are able to deal with it."
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  17. #37

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    It often takes a leadership a while to fully understand realize the full.scope qnd seriousness of a problem. A leader's fist response after the first cases that are reported isn't "we must havs a major crisis on our hands!". There is a tme lag for reports ro work their way up.to the people in charge, and for it to dawn on the people in charge that they have a major crisis.

    Nor is the Chinee government rhe only one to tey to kwep quiet about a major.health crisis, that is a common tendency of governments to prevent "panic" by the general population. The Japanese initially were not very transparent or forth coming with infomation on thr Fukushima disaster, and I woule say the Chinese did a better job communicating than the Japanese were initially on Fukushima, and their response was better than the US state and local governments were wih regard to Flint, Michigan's water crisis.


    Maybe China's response wasn't perfect, but it was an improvement over its response to SARS, which shows it learned something. I am not convinced the US response would have been any better.

  18. #38
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    That's the worst part of the article, politically biased.
    Assuming this to be the case,can someone explain why in the US, sanitary authorities ask evacuees to stay just three days in a military base. " the risk is very low, they are not in quarantine order". Watch the video. https://youtu.be/uz_1vNLuKyw
    An optimistic approach.
    Acknowledging the facts gathered so far regarding the failed coverup, subsequent political theater, and continued lack of transparency on the part of the Politburo is not politically biased. If anything, the bias would be found in giving an authoritarian regime a gold star for marginal improvements against the metric of its own abysmal record.

    I suppose the mea culpas are underway and heads will roll as lower ranking officials like the Wuhan mayor are now thrown under the bus for doing what was expected of them - deny, censor, arrest, control. Protect the Party at all costs.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Very good points.

    There's a zombie apocalypse novel called World War Z (nothing like the crappy movie) where the outbreak is detected in China but they cover it up at first for political reasons and the succesion of botched responses ensure the disease spreads: its the same with the US.

    It was an oddly perceptive novel, it saw a cynical US VP (Cheney-like) and incompetent President (Jr) ignore the problem in favour of forever wars and then the new president is "one of those people" (they never say he's black but its implied, so Obama) with a dopey grinning VP (basically Biden without the groping)-this was published in 2006 before Obama appeared on the scene, so the author saw a potential for a shift in US politics that did happen. Hopefully Brooks didn't get everything right.
    I’ve heard that book was uncomfortably prescient in some aspects. With any potential vaccine months away, and the Politburo only now allowing limited outside assessment of the situation on the ground, there’s no way to know at this point how severe the situation will turn out to be. It’s too early to be chicken little, and too late to assume the worst is over.
    Quote Originally Posted by Common Soldier View Post
    Maybe China's response wasn't perfect, but it was an improvement over its response to SARS, which shows it learned something. I am not convinced the US response would have been any better.
    Per the CFR assessment and direct comparison between Chinese vs US methods employed during the last “pandemic,” one doesn’t need to be convinced. It’s not about who’s better or worse. The Politburo has time and again been deliberately opaque and restrictive about these things, employing unscientific, politicized measures that are objectively less effective than those employed by more transparent and science-based systems like in the US. None of this is new information to be “learned.”

  19. #39
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I’m honestly not sure everyone in this discussion, beyond this board as well as on TWC, really understands what kind of a country China is. It is a one party state, with dystopian mass surveillance, secret police and propaganda like ‘my mother only gave me my body, but the Party gave me my soul’, inferring the Party is more important than your own mother. The only priority is the continued rule and domination of the CCP. I highly doubt they actually care about keeping the public safe in national crises any further than that it helps preserve their reputation and therefore their authority. Thus the scapegoating on local officials, or on other issues the West, America, Muslims or whatever. Thus the censorship, the downplaying, all of it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Himster View Post
    The trick is to never be honest. That's what this social phenomenon is engineering: publicly conform, or else.

  20. #40
    B. W.'s Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Whether it is warranted or not, the virus is certainly becoming an inconvenience for a lot of people:

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...navirus-fears/

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