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Thread: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

  1. #61

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Iran will likely double down on its efforts to take over Iraq. I expect a substantial attack against USA targets in Iraq through militias. Trump likely welcomes any aggression from Iran. It provides him a new enemy to take a stand against to play the tough guy role. He likely thinks it will help him in the upcoming elections. Yesterday, given how the crowd in Baghdad stopped short of taking the last step into the USA's embassy, it smelled like the assault was somewhat directed. A day later this happens.
    The Armenian Issue

  2. #62

    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    Hey American citizen, last I checked this didn't happen in Texas or in Tel Aviv. This has implications for the whole world, and the whole world is reacting to it. And yeah, it's not a random act of violence, it's an act of war. Also you're one to talk while projecting your Israeli sensibilities on the poor Arab allies, aka the house of Saud. Aww.
    How many acts of war are you going to get worked up about before you just accept there is an ongoing conflict? The sky is truly falling this time?

    Anyway, I wasn't referring to the official positions of our Arab allies. I live in a country that's something like 21% Arab and have somewhat of a grasp of the language. I see what is shared on Facebook, etc.
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  3. #63
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    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    Yeah nothing happened in Libya, nothing happened in Iraq.
    The Americans aren't involved in Yemen either, nor are they sponsoring the MEK in Iran.
    They have also been zero involved in Syria, etc. etc. etc. etc.

    If a bomb isn't dropped every 5 minutes, everyone gets giddy. So it's important they keep doing that for peace on middle earth.

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  4. #64
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    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    What was Soleimani's role in Iraq? Was he there at the invitation of the Iraqi government?

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  5. #65

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Yesterday, given how the crowd in Baghdad stopped short of taking the last step into the USA's embassy, it smelled like the assault was somewhat directed.
    Who directed the assault?

  6. #66
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    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Van Zandt View Post
    What was Soleimani's role in Iraq? Was he there at the invitation of the Iraqi government?
    Well as head of Quds force presumably organizing the activity of all the Iranian backed militias in Iraq or meeting with ones from other areas. Certainly good to be on the ground. After all the US/Iranian cooperation to whack ISIS in Iraq is certainly a non thing anymore. Trumps actions in Syria probably mean the Kurds are feeling a bit unsettled. So why not push the US and if Trump will not act but I doubt the Iraq government (or at least those most friendly to Iran) wanted that kind of decision to come from an errand boy.

    I should say I'm not shedding a tear for the guy but it seems like a car bomb or IED would have provided plausible deniability which can be useful when actually assassinating a official of a government and not some militia blokes.

    Interesting walk through from of all places a french journalist (point 5 is one I had not considered)

    https://twitter.com/RymMomtaz/status...e5d32bdf4815f7
    Last edited by conon394; January 03, 2020 at 08:49 AM.
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  7. #67

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Who directed the assault?
    Iraqi security forces.
    The Armenian Issue

  8. #68
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    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Well as head of Quds force presumably organizing the activity of all the Iranian backed militias in Iraq or meeting with ones from other areas. Certainly good to be on the ground.
    Organizing Iraqi militias would seem to be the job of the Iraqi government. Arming them would certainly be a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

    I should say I'm not shedding a tear for the guy but it seems like a car bomb or IED would have provided plausible deniability which can be useful when actually assassinating a official of a government and not some militia blokes.
    I agree, an IED would have been ironic, but perhaps this was a target of opportunity, reasonably isolated next to the airport without any civilians nearby.

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  9. #69

    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    Those damn idiots. What have they done? Watching CNN directly afterwards it seems to me that even the so called experts have no clue. There will be no war they say. I am not even sure if they knew Suleimani was there to begin with. It might have been purely accidental, after all he was on its gulf course and didn't proclaim responsibility at first, he a guy who loves himself more than anyone else...

    I think the US might find themself isolated pretty soon. The UK and France are angry because they were not informed, French-UN personal is already saying that this is most most likely a breach of International Law which they rarely say against the US and the Iraqi government is furius that they were not told but also that their own people were killed. That PMU Commander was after all a member of the Iraqi Army. We can be pretty sure that this will lead in the ousting of the Americans by the Iraqi Government. Also Al-Badr who kept quite and distanced himself from Iran in the last 10 years proclaimed that his followers which count around 100k are called to support Iran again.

    Which strategic mastermind orchestrated this mess? My guess is that they had no idea at all and are totally plan-less.

    The best analysis of the situation i read on the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...aunt-quds-iran

    Everything less seems pretty optimistic in my opinion. The US created a martyr who created those shiite alliances all his life and now with his death this alliances are stronger than ever, actually they grow in their support and with Badre coming in they have support they didn't even expected.

    This is just crazy. Those damn morons in the White House.

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  10. #70
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    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post

    Interesting walk through from of all places a french journalist (point 5 is one I had not considered).
    Is it really such a major intelligence coup to know the location and travel plans of one of the highest political figures in Iran, and to stage an attack in a country where you have been operating militarily for over a decade, and have free reign to fly attack helicopters around the place without anyone batting an eyelid? It seems to me the only way to prevent this attack would have been through a series of convincing decoys following him around everywhere, which is not a level of security routinely given to anyone except presidents of great powers.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

  11. #71
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    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I'd say that you were at least correct in noting that it was a move right out of the Israeli playbook. In fact, Israel publicly threatened to kill Soleimani somewhat recently.
    I am honestly surprised it wasn't the Israelis. US beat them to it.

    They will feel honor-bound to retaliate in some way, but I don't expect there will be any more of a war than there already is. From the perspective of not expecting any sort of reconciliation in the foreseeable future, I'd say it's a fairly effective approach. That's exactly why the Israelis use it. If anything, the US just gained a degree of respect in the region. I suspect even begrudgingly from the Iranians.
    I could definitely see more militia attacks in Syria and Iraq. Another Israeli-Hezbollah war is also possible.

  12. #72

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Copperknickers II View Post
    Is it really such a major intelligence coup to know the location and travel plans of one of the highest political figures in Iran, and to stage an attack in a country where you have been operating militarily for over a decade, and have free reign to fly attack helicopters around the place without anyone batting an eyelid? It seems to me the only way to prevent this attack would have been through a series of convincing decoys following him around everywhere, which is not a level of security routinely given to anyone except presidents of great powers.
    His locations were never a big secret. He was in north iraq during the Anti-IS Campaign often enough. He was protected by international law and a lot of red lines so his locations didn't need to be kept more secret than a western defense minister traveling to troublesome countries like Afghanistan. There was always a chance of roughe attacks by non-state combatants but not this. This means that the US is theoretically willing to kill Assad or Putin or any other state offical or head of state of other countries if they desire so. Even more troubling is that neither the allies nor the US-Congress or Senate intelligence boards were informed of this action. That's all mind blowing and a big gamechanger by the worst, because now, once the bottle is opened, a lot of rules that held the world together became obsolete.

    Edit: It is more and more clear that Trump and his people have no clue at all what they have done. In his recent tweet he calls the Iraqi government ungrateful for what the Americans have done in the past and especially now. He doesn't seem to realize that again he has killed people that were Iraqi officials and is now surprised that the Iraqi government isn't celebrating the US-breach of Iraqi-souveranity. Just stunning.
    Last edited by Marcus Aemilius Lepidus; January 03, 2020 at 09:38 AM.

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  13. #73

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phier View Post
    This puts Iran on notice that we are not putzing around this administration. This is what happened with Isis when he first took over. Lets these asses know that the ones giving the orders are not safe and we will kill them like any other terrorist leader.
    Why do you label Soleimani as a terrorist leader? Has the Quds Force ever targeted American civilians? To my knowledge, Iran and her affiliates have always been very careful to threaten only military American targets, from Lebanon to Iraq, something that cannot be easily said for the US and its extrajudicial activities inside Iran and her immediate periphery. In this war, America cannot really claim the moral high ground.
    Quote Originally Posted by Copperknickers II View Post
    What a story to wake up to. Soleimani, as most here are aware, was essentially the third highest figure in Iranian politics, after Khamenei and Rouhani.
    General Qasem Soleimani was a child of the great Revolution, from a poor construction worker in Kerman to his homeland's military elite, but he was not the third highest figure in Iranian politics. This is a very west-orientated view and completely ignores all the actors and groups that shape the Republic's foreign and domestic policy. Soleimani enjoyed a lot of prestige, thanks to his alleged involvement in the Karbala operation and the obsession of mainstream media, with what they perceive as mysterious, obscure figures of exotic, oriental empires. He was a talented comander, a gifted diplomat and intermediary and the head of the Quds force, but I would argue that he was not even the third most important persion in the hierarchy of the Revolutionary Guards.

    From my perspective as an individual with no particular sympathy for American geopolitical supremacy and interests in the Middle East, I am disappointed with this sad event, as it was an illegal act that violated the sovereignty of Iraq and would probably lead into more deaths of innocent civilians, just when the situation began to deescalate. However, from the point of view of the US government, this risky move could have a fruitful result. Frankly, Iran was caught off guard here and, given its fundamental weakness, in comparison to its main antagonists, I don't see how it can retaliate in a convincing manner. Some rockets will be doubtlessly dropped, but I doubt about whether they will cause any substantial casualties. Tehran will probably boast that she replied to American provocation decisively, but Washington will still have demonstrated that she holds the upper hand. Hopefully, the situation may improve, as both Iran and the US might be discouraged from continuing the vicious circle of unnecessary and costful conflict. Meanwhile, Donald is determined to rival Saddam Hussein and co. in extravagant propaganda:
    Quote Originally Posted by Twitter
    [General Qasem Soleimani] was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people...
    Let's see if Soleimani's successor will surpass his former master. He's certainly performing beyond normal expectations in the sardonic smirk department:
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; January 03, 2020 at 09:49 AM. Reason: Esmail Ghaani, the Penumbra commander?

  14. #74
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    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    I am disappointed with this sad event, as it was an illegal act that violated the sovereignty of Iraq and would probably lead into more deaths of innocent civilians, just when the situation began to deescalate.
    As you and Lepidus already said this is the most notable point in the whole affair.

    But as the sanctions against North Stream II have shown lately, the US don't care about foreign souvereignty, if it stands in the way of own economical and political interests.
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  15. #75

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Abdülmecid I View Post
    Why do you label Soleimani as a terrorist leader? Has the Quds Force ever targeted American civilians? To my knowledge, Iran and her affiliates have always been very careful to threaten only military American targets, from Lebanon to Iraq, something that cannot be easily said for the US and its extrajudicial activities inside Iran and her immediate periphery. In this war, America cannot really claim the moral high ground.
    The Quds Force is a unit in Iran's Revolutionary Guards directed to carry out unconventional warfare and intelligence activities. Responsible for extraterritorial operations, the Quds Force supports non-state actors in many countries, including Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Yemeni Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan.
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  16. #76

    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    So, what terrorists attacks are you referring to? Pretty much every regular army has been involved in dealings with non-state actors with a shady record, but that doesn't mean they should be labelled as terrorists. Do you think that the Iranians are justified to classify the US army as a terrorist group, because of its close cooperation with militias that do not respect the laws of war?

  17. #77

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    None of the groups the Quds Forces supported and that you quoted acted as terrorists in a manner that they organized terrorattacks on European or American soil (Hizbollah did this 30 years ago, but thats it.). The majority of terror attacks in the world were organized by sunni arabs coming from countries we call our allies like Pakistan or Saudi-Arabia. So much for that. I understand that we don't like Hamas, Hiszbollah and Iraqi PMU's but the thing is that they all fight in their sense independence or defense wars in their own countries and support each other. Non of those fight on other continents than their own and non of thous has forts and bases in front of america.

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  18. #78
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    Default Re: Iraqi protesters storm U.S. embassy in Baghdad

    Quote Originally Posted by Abdülmecid I View Post
    So, what terrorists attacks are you referring to? Pretty much every regular army has been involved in dealings with non-state actors with a shady record, but that doesn't mean they should be labelled as terrorists. Do you think that the Iranians are justified to classify the US army as a terrorist group, because of its close cooperation with militias that do not respect the laws of war?
    We can always dive into the history of Iran's support for Hezbollah and the IJO in Lebanon.

  19. #79
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    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marcus Aemilius Lepidus View Post
    None of the groups the Quds Forces supported and that you quoted acted as terrorists in a manner that they organized terrorattacks on European or American soil (Hizbollah did this 30 years ago, but thats it.).
    Jesus Christ, talk about a lack of self awareness. Starts off suggesting they aren't terrorists and then cites terrorism with a "so what."

    The majority of terror attacks in the world were organized by sunni arabs coming from countries we call our allies like Pakistan or Saudi-Arabia. So much for that. I understand that we don't like Hamas, Hiszbollah and Iraqi PMU's but the thing is that they all fight in their sense independence or defense wars in their own countries and support each other. Non of those fight on other continents than their own and non of thous has forts and bases in front of america.
    This doesn't make any sense. Maybe language barrier? Weird incoherent statement to blanket Sunnis with, and then give examples of Iranian backed groups. And then something about forts? Odd.
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

  20. #80

    Default Re: Qassem Soleimani is dead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Copperknickers II View Post
    What a story to wake up to. Soleimani, as most here are aware, was essentially the third highest figure in Iranian politics, after Khamenei and Rouhani. Since he was a military target and the attack was on Iraqi soil, this attack is not quite 'a declaration of war' on Iran, but it's pretty close. I'm interested to hear opinions on the following things:

    1. How will Iran respond to this? Anything less than a Benghazi 2012-style attack will seem quite muted. But Iran is hardly in a position to go in all guns blazing against the Americans - without their top general, in the wake of more massive street protests against the government in recent weeks, and with the Israelis and Saudis just waiting for any excuse to cripple Iranian operations in the Gulf and Syria/Lebanon, they stand to lose quite a lot in the event of a major escalation. My guess is we'll just see more of the same as we have seen recently with the ship seizures and missile attacks in Saudi Arabia, and perhaps some kind of embassy attack, as well as a ramp up of nuclear program rhetoric. In the long term, we may see a major government-sanctioned terror plot somewhere unexpected (but probably not on American soil). The UAE, perhaps.
    Tehran has been sponsoring terror attacks around the world for decades. They operate jihadist militias throughout the Middle East with relative impunity. In 2018, an Iranian diplomat helmed a failed bomb plot in Paris. Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia, threatened to close off the Persian Gulf and recently pirated a British-flag vessel just to show off. Any tit for tat retaliation for Soleimani will only expose more of their capabilities; there’s only so much more they can do. Meanwhile, all the US did was conduct air strikes in Iraq in response to an attack on our embassy and rocket attacks that killed an American, all directed by Tehran/Hezbollah. To save face, Tehran will have to further erode the victim narrative they have tried to maintain after the collapse of the JCPOA; a narrative that has already been steadily damaged in the wake of escalating desperate attacks and the massacre of Iranian protestors.
    2. What will happen in Iraq? I've not been following events there closely, but I know they're at a moment of very high political tension in the wake of protests and the resignation of the PM. Interesting that this BBC video from last week puts the spotlight firmly on Soleimani as the bogeyman for anti-government protestors there. I wonder if this is the prelude for an American attempt to take back control of affairs in Iraq from the Iranians. But it's a dangerous game to be playing, considering the role Soleimani played in suppressing IS, the flagrancy of the attack on Iraqi government personnel, and the level of tensions on both sides. Will we see a major civil war breaking out, maybe even another refugee crisis?
    Iranian militias will no doubt have to step up attacks on US and allied personnel in Iraq, but that risks exposing just how much or how little control Tehran has over her proxies there, as well as their capabilities. These attacks also can’t be so destructive or wild as to kill too many Iraqi civilians, since Tehran needs to make the US out to be the enemy in order to maintain any support for its militias in the region. Tehran is continually operating from a position of weakness by being obliged to launch more and more aggressive attacks. By maintaining consistency, defending existing objectives and backing up our allies in the region, the US is projecting strength. This is underscored by Soleimani’s death and the limited options it leaves Tehran.
    3. What is Trump's strategy here? One always wonders how much his decisions are based on advice and long-term strategy, or just his own 'smart' ideas. Republicans are celebrating the killing, as you'd expect. Of course, his domestic situation must be a major motivating factor here - coming out of an impeachment, and into a reelection campaign. But perhaps it's part of a strategy to initiate a counteroffensive on Iranian hegemony in the Middle East and try to get back on the front foot on the world stage, demonstrating that America still has teeth even if they don't want to get involved in foreign wars. Or perhaps it was just a dumb decision whose consequences were not thought through. Or indeed, all of the above.
    Trump is along for the ride. I’m sure we’ll learn more about how the operation unfolded in the coming weeks. Congress is owed a detailed explanation, and our allies are justified to feel outrage at having been kept in the dark as well. Any competent admin would have made this an allied effort, even if it meant executing the operation over objections. Going by the experience of Trump’s management style, it’s likely he knew nothing of it until someone asked him to sign off as commander in chief. His “strategy” is to claim responsibility for things he thinks will help him politically and distance himself from everything else.

    Pelosi is right to criticize the constitutional issues with this sudden move against a sovereign nation without the prior consent of Congress, but the AUMF makes that a much more opaque issue than it otherwise would be, unfortunately. In light of the impeachment proceedings, it’s more likely Democrat criticism is merely creating an option for future contingencies, hence why it is relatively muted. There’s no denying Soleimani was a legitimate military target in terms of Iran’s direction of proxy attacks on US and allied personnel in Iraq, not to mention this latest failed ploy to goad the US into murdering protestors after Iranian proxies directed an attack on our embassy. He was killed in Baghdad, after all, not Tehran.

    European nations are warning their citizens to beware of counterattacks from Iran or its terror proxies, which reveals alot about which party everyone regards as the antagonist, regardless of any political narrative about US foreign policy, or face-saving protests by our allies. There may well be legal or constitutional issues with the strike on Soleimani, but the people calling the strike a wild escalation by the US didn’t seem to use the same language when Tehran directed an attack on our embassy or tried to bomb Paris.
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