As time goes on, it is becoming increasingly clear that the US will, one way or another, join the rest of the world in dramatically increasing the government’s role in the healthcare and education sectors. Apart from the political faction on the right which essentially wants to keep things the way they are, most of the country and therefore political momentum is behind substantial government intervention in these areas of the economy. Like it or not, the discussion is no longer a question of whether or not to engage in a European-style overhaul of these sectors, but how.
Based on the following, I think most of the country does not understand that question, nor have the politicians promising sweeping reforms provided convincing details on how to approach the answers. On both education and healthcare, numerous solutions have been implemented over the years, and more are being proposed as 2020 approaches. Here’s where I think these solutions and proposals miss the mark, and where I’d like to focus discussion:
Healthcare:
Whether reforms take the shape of a public option or medicare for all, these take aim at reducing the cost to the end user while doing comparatively little to address the causes of rising costs. We know Medicare itself is one of the biggest drivers of rising healthcare costs, and that reducing costs to the consumer will increase consumption.
The argument is that expanding Medicare coverage to most or all of the US population will reduce administrative costs and force healthcare providers to reduce their costs to meet the price Medicare is willing to pay. While the latter makes intuitive sense, it doesn’t square with what Medicare has actually done to the healthcare sector for decades - balloon costs and elicit fraud, because the government is a buyer with unlimited money in a fee-for-service system.
It’s also worth noting that the healthcare coverage expansions under discussion in the US are not like the Canadian and European counterparts they are supposedly based on. Even in the most general terms, a US Medicare for All or income based public option system would have virtually no coverage maximums, personal savings requirements, or hard limits to the types of services covered. Providers would seemingly continue to bill Medicare based on the existing fee-for-service model that engenders fraud, waste, and price inflation. Everyone, not just the super-wealthy, would have to pay much higher taxes, and those would presumably continue to rise with the overall cost of care, which is a political minefield unto itself. Even under the current system, taxes will need to increase significantly in the near future to cover Medicare’s existing liabilities.
Question: Where is the cost control mechanism? Some countries, like Britain, draw a clear line between public and private health systems to centralize control over costs and services for which the government is ultimately responsible. Others, like Singapore, require minimum personal health savings and offer tiered services based on whether the provider is public or private. In a proposed US public insurance system, where is the line? Proposals for universal healthcare coverage in the US don’t account for the same issues which plagued the ACA/Obamacare: How to deal with legislative sabotage, how to deal with the causes of rising costs, and how building on a broken system - Medicare - is going to achieve the desired results without significant or even crippling externalities.
Education:
Similar to healthcare, proposed plans to subsidize or entirely cover all levels of education in the US face the same questions. As demand for post-secondary education has increased, so too have costs. Federal student aid and increased access to loans for education have ballooned along with those costs, and there is substantial evidence for a causal link between government intervention in the education sector, and price inflation.
The US already has a public university system administered by the states. While proposals to increase federal funding to the states for education would ostensibly lower the costs to students by placing additional restrictions on what the funds can be used for, there are few specific controls here either. There are also few details as to whether only public universities would be eligible for increased aid and subsidies, or if the same benefits would apply to private “non-profits” currently eligible for federal student aid and subsidized loans. Increased taxes is also a reality no politician seems eager to discuss.
Question: Where is the cost control mechanism? Tackling ballooning education costs means addressing the causes. Making education free for the end user is certainly achievable, but without restricting access to consumer credit and federal funding/subsidies, the current proposals seem doomed to build on a broken system of runaway price inflation. Just because the consumer wouldn’t be paying for it up front doesn’t mean someone else isn’t in the end.
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