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Thread: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

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    Default Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    The Algerian anti-government protests have been going for almost one year, as they firstly started in February 2019. The spark that ignited the fire was the announcement of the incumbent 82-years old president Abdelaziz Bouteflika to run for the elections. The fact that Bouteflika has been ruling over Algeria since 1999 and that he's incapable of speaking, as a result of a stroke, encouraged many Algerians to revolt against a nomination justifiably perceived as suspicious and authoritarian. The violent demonstrations continued until the army, headed by the 79-years old general Ahmed Gaid Salah decided to intervene "in favour of the Algerian people", so that Bouteflika's candidacy was retracted and his little brother, together with a couple of corrupt officials, were arrested. One of them was the 80-years old former director of the intelligence services, Mohamed Mediène, somewhat worryingly nicknamed the Eradicator, because of his views regarding how the Islamist fighters should be treated by their captors.



    The army, essentially the cornerstone behind Algeria's despotic regime, has a brilliant history of maintaining public order, which were demonstrated 1992, when the Islamic Front unfortunately won the elections. Consequently, the military launched a coup, provoked a bloody civil war and order was restored, at the price of democracy and thousands of deaths and human rights abuses. Salah's initiative should therefore be interpreted not as a genuine concern for popular will, but as a rather successful effort to protect the beneficial for him and his associates establishment. Finally, the presidential elections were held, despite massive abstention, in December and casually won by 74-years old Abdelmadjid (no relation whatsoever with the Ottoman Sultan Abdülmecid I) Tebboune, who boasts a remarkable career in administration, as he had also been provincial governor, Minister and Prime-Minister...



    Meanwhile, just when the new President celebrated his fourth day in office, the aged and rather corpulent chief of staff, His Excellency, Ahmed Gaid Salah, inconveniently died, because his heart betrayed him. The unexpected loss of the chubby puppetmaster indicates that the grip on power of the 30's and 40's generation that greatly profited from the independence movement against France, is seriously threatened by their fragile health. However, the main cause of the uprising probably lies in the diminishing prosperity of the Algerian state, whose treasury has severely declined (her currency reserves have been halved), because of the oil price reduction. Algerian economy heavily on energy exports, a domain which was, until recently, monopolised by the state company Sonatrach (Société nationale pour la recherche, la production, le transport, la transformation, et la commercialisation des hydrocarbures). However, interestingly enough, in autumn, the government has allowed foreign companies (like French Total), to also invest and exploit the natural resources of the country. In my opinion, this measure is not coincidental, but instead aims to gain international sympathy, in a time when the government is domestically quite vulnerable. Anyway, the loss of revenue has mainly affected the Algerian people, as quality of life has been seriously undermined by the subsequent austerity reforms taken by Bouteflika and co..

    So, what do you believe about Algerian future? Will it follow the positive example of Tunisia or the negative fate of Egypt, where el-Sisi has basically evolved into the dictatorial successor of Mubarak? In my opinion, given the conditions of the Algerian society and the power of the military authorities, the second scenario is much likelier.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Sounds like Trump's second presidency will be marked by tradition, starting yet another war with oil rich country.

  3. #3
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    To be fair, general Sisi is good news for Egypt.
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    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Quote Originally Posted by Abdülmecid I View Post
    ...

    So, what do you believe about Algerian future? Will it follow the positive example of Tunisia or the negative fate of Egypt, where el-Sisi has basically evolved into the dictatorial successor of Mubarak? In my opinion, given the conditions of the Algerian society and the power of the military authorities, the second scenario is much likelier.
    I think Algeria will follow the egyptian example, as Algeria has a much bigger population, a weak oil price dependent economy, while Tunisia has the benefit of having a smaller population and a more modern, tourism focussed economy and even more important a functioning democracy the last years.
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    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


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    hellheaven1987's Avatar Comes Domesticorum
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    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    To be fair, general Sisi is good news for Egypt.
    He just still could not solve the same economic problems that forced Mubarak down; although Algeria "may be" can intervene Libya just like Turkey did in order to hide its falling economy.
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    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Another excellent thread by OP, although in the interest of balance he needs to post something boring and irrelevant for change

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    To be fair, general Sisi is good news for Egypt.
    I take the point he's there to keep the Islamists from taking over and invading Israel/genociding the Copts etc so that's a good thing, but he's also an indication Egypt does not have the maturity to rule itself by popular participatory government. Is it fair to say he's the least worst option?
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  7. #7

    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    I take the point he's there to keep the Islamists from taking over and invading Israel/genociding the Copts etc so that's a good thing, but he's also an indication Egypt does not have the maturity to rule itself by popular participatory government. Is it fair to say he's the least worst option?
    I don't know, those sound like reasonably popular propositions. At least we can say, a solid majority of Egyptians support cancelling the peace treaty with Israel and endorse a form of law that would officially make Copts second class citizens. Though to be fair, Morsi didn't do either.

    In any case, the main issue is tyranny of the majority, which isn't so unusual. Shadi Hamid writing in 2014:

    After the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, a debate raged among Egyptians and Tunisians over the very nature of their societies. How much of the ongoing “Islamization” was imposed and manufactured, and how much of it was an “authentic” representation of society? Without the stifling yoke of dictatorship, some reasoned, Arabs would finally be able to express their true sentiments without fear of persecution.

    The ensuing—and increasingly charged—debate over the role of religion in public life put Western analysts and policymakers in the uncomfortable position of having to prioritize some values they hold dear over others. In the Western experience, democracy and liberalism usually went hand in hand, to the extent that “democracy” in popular usage became shorthand for liberal democracy. Liberalism preceded democracy, allowing the latter to flourish. As the political scientists Richard Rose and Doh Chull Shin point out, “Countries in the first wave [of democracy], such as Britain and Sweden, initially became modern states, establishing the rule of law, institutions of civil society, and horizontal accountability to aristocratic parliaments. Democratization followed in Britain as the government became accountable to members of parliament elected by a franchise that gradually broadened until universal suffrage was achieved.” In contrast, they write, “third-wave democracies have begun democratization backwards.”

    Getting democracy backwards has led to the rise of “illiberal democracies,” a distinctly modern creation that Fareed Zakaria documents in his book The Future of Freedom. Zakaria seeks to disentangle liberalism and democracy, arguing that democratization is, in fact, “directly related” to illiberalism. On the other hand, “constitutional liberalism,” as he terms it, is a political system “marked not only by free and fair elections but also by the rule of law, a separation of powers, and the protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property.” “This bundle of freedoms,” he goes on, “has nothing intrinsically to do with democracy.”

    Michael Signer makes a similar argument in his book charting the rise of “demagogues,” who accumulate popularity and power through the ballot box. Like Zakaria, Signer acknowledges the inherent tensions between liberalism and democracy, noting that early generations of Americans were particularly attuned to these threats. He writes, for instance, about Elbridge Gerry, a representative from Massachusetts who declared that “allowing ordinary Americans to vote for the president was madness.” Drawing on such examples, Signer argues that “at its simplest level, democracy is a political system that grants power based on what large groups of people want.” And what these large groups want may not be good for constitutional liberalism, which is more about the ends of democracy rather than the means.

    The emergence of illiberal democracy in the developing world saw democratically elected leaders using popular mandates to infringe upon basic liberties. Elections were still largely free and fair, and opposition parties were fractious but viable. But ruling parties, seeing their opponents more as enemies than competitors, sought to restrict media freedoms and pack state bureaucracies with loyalists. They used their control of the democratic process to rig the system to their advantage. In some cases, as in Venezuela under Hugo Chávez, a cult of personality became central to the consolidation of illiberal democracy. Sometimes it bordered on self-parody, taking the form of highway billboards announcing that “Chávez is the people.”

    Illiberal democracy has risen to prominence in part because Western Europe’s careful sequencing of liberalism first and democracy later is no longer tenable—and hasn’t been for some time. Knowing that democracy, or something resembling it, is within reach, citizens have no interest in waiting indefinitely for something their leaders say they aren’t ready for. Democracy has become such an uncontested, normative good that the arguments of Zakaria seem decidedly out of step with the times. Zakaria argues, for instance, that “the absence of free and fair elections should be viewed as one flaw, not the definition of tyranny…. It is important that governments be judged by yardsticks related to constitutional liberalism.” Interestingly, he points to countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Jordan, and Morocco as models. “Despite the limited political choice they offer,” he writes, “[they] provide a better environment for life, liberty, and happiness of citizens than do … the illiberal democracies of Venezuela, Russia, or Ghana.”

    The phenomenon of Islamists seeking, or being in, power forces us to rethink the relationship between liberalism and democracy. Illiberal democracy under Islamist rule is different from the Venezuelan or Russian varieties for a number of reasons. In the latter cases, illiberal democracy is not intrinsically linked to the respective ideologies of Hugo Chávez or Vladimir Putin. Their illiberalism is largely a byproduct of a more basic, naked desire to consolidate power. In the case of Islamists, however, their illiberalism is a product of their Islamism, particularly in the social arena. For Islamists, illiberal democracy is not an unfortunate fact of life but something to believe in and aspire to. Although they may struggle to define what exactly it entails, Islamist parties have a distinctive intellectual and ideological “project.” This is why they are Islamist.
    Full article is worth reading (if they let you): The Future of Democracy in the Middle East: Islamist and Illiberal

    Skipping to the end:

    Where it is allowed to proceed, democratization will reorient political life in Arab societies. But how? In a country like Tunisia, the center of Arab politics shifted to the right. In Egypt, it shifted to the right before retreating in the face of mounting opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamists more generally.

    Some “liberal” Islamists have made the case that religion should no longer be such a divisive issue. During his insurgent campaign for president, former Brotherhood leader Abdel Moneim Abul Futouh explained it this way to a Salafi television channel: “Today those who call themselves liberals or leftists, this is just a political name, but most of them understand and respect Islamic values. They support the sharia and are no longer against it.” In a creative attempt at redefinition, Abul Futouh noted that all Muslims are, by definition, Salafi, in the sense that they are loyal to the Salaf, the earliest, most pious generations of Muslims. He seemed to be saying: We are all, in effect, Islamists, so why fight over it?

    Abul Futouh, for all his purported liberalism, believed that the Egyptian people (and perhaps all Muslim-majority populations) had a natural inclination toward Islam. Here, the tensions between liberalism and majoritarianism became more evident. When I asked Abul Futouh in 2006 what Islamists would do if parliament passed an “un-Islamic” law, he dismissed the concern: “Parliament won’t grant rights to gays because that goes against the prevailing culture of society, and if [members of parliament] did that, they’d lose the next election,” he said. “Whether you are a communist, socialist, or whatever, you can’t go against the prevailing culture. There is already a built-in respect for sharia.”

    Over the course of my interviews in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia—both before and after the Arab Spring—this particular sentiment was repeated so often that it began to sound like a cliche: freedom and Islamization were not opposed but rather went hand in hand. As Salem Falahat, the former general overseer of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood, once told me, “If they have the opportunity to think and choose, [the Arab and Muslim people] will choose Islam. Every time freedom expands among them, they choose Islam.” In other words, Islam didn’t need to be enforced. The people, to the extent they needed to, would enforce it themselves—through the binding nature of the democratic process.

    This notion has a long pedigree in Islamic thought: The Prophet Muhammad is reported to have said, “My umma [community] will not agree on an error.” Depending on where exactly you stand on the political spectrum, this sort of belief in the wisdom of crowds is either reassuring and somewhat banal or mildly frightening. It either hints at a new conservative consensus or at an exclusionary politics that has little space for liberal dissent.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  8. #8

    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    To be fair, general Sisi is good news for Egypt.
    I'm not a fan of the Muslim Brotherhood either, but that's a rather cynical statement, given the record of el-Sisi: Despite being one of its members, the Egyptian general overthrew the first democratically government of the country, indirectly murdering its President and causing the deaths of thousands of protestors at the hands of the police and the army. Even an Italian PhD student, who investigated the shady relations between trade unions and the regime, is included in his victims. Sumskilz raises a valid point about the tyranny of the majority, but I doubt that the solution to the problem is the establishment of a dictatorship opposed to sectarianism. In my opinion, the principal reason behind el-Sisi's considerably more positive coverage in mainstream media than Assad, for example, despite the fact that the opposition to his Syrian colleague is far more extreme and barbaric than the Muslim Brotherhood, is simply the former's diplomatic position.

    Anyway, in what concerns Algeria, justifying coups or military juntas for the greater good, sets up a dangerous precedent, even if their main target is, for now, limited to religious fanatics. Besides, regardless of any moral objections, authoritarianism seems as a very short-term answer to the question, since it probably delays the inevitable and actually radicalises the fundamentalists. Urbanisation, decline of illiteracy, modernisation and cultural globalisation mean that piety is in retreat in Muslim countries, like Algeria, as well. The change will be gradual and the demographics can be temporarily reversed, as rural populations move to the city's outskirts, but I am personally confident that Algeria, together with societies like Iran or Turkey, will progressively grow more secular, liberal and tolerant. This trend confirmed by scientific data can be slowed down by financial crisis (and especially income inequality) or the imposition of a despotic regime, with zero respect over its citizen's rights.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    So-called “moderate” autocrats are no long-term solution, but kicking the can down the road has a certain political appeal, especially when it’s not your country. Besides, US policy makers have their own ill-informed ideas about how to combat extremism in North Africa in collaboration with friendly autocrats. For example: The Flawed Hope of Sufi Promotion in North Africa

    One might speculatively conclude that the ultimate success of democracy in such places depends to some degree upon the diplomatic orientation of the newly elected government. Nobody ever ruled in Egypt without the permission and/or support of the military, which in recent memory has been beholden to the US. One might further conclude that Egypt’s short-lived experiment was at least in part due to pressure from the Obama administration followed by a realization that it hadn’t really worked out as had been hoped. On the other hand, US economic and military aid to Tunisia has steadily risen since 2011, up to $194 million in the most recent fully reported year.
    Last edited by sumskilz; January 02, 2020 at 02:36 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


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    hellheaven1987's Avatar Comes Domesticorum
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    Default Re: Algerian Gerontocracy Rejects Retirement Plan

    Quote Originally Posted by Abdülmecid I View Post
    Anyway, in what concerns Algeria, justifying coups or military juntas for the greater good, sets up a dangerous precedent, even if their main target is, for now, limited to religious fanatics. Besides, regardless of any moral objections, authoritarianism seems as a very short-term answer to the question, since it probably delays the inevitable and actually radicalises the fundamentalists. Urbanisation, decline of illiteracy, modernisation and cultural globalisation mean that piety is in retreat in Muslim countries, like Algeria, as well. The change will be gradual and the demographics can be temporarily reversed, as rural populations move to the city's outskirts, but I am personally confident that Algeria, together with societies like Iran or Turkey, will progressively grow more secular, liberal and tolerant. This trend confirmed by scientific data can be slowed down by financial crisis (and especially income inequality) or the imposition of a despotic regime, with zero respect over its citizen's rights.
    Secularism would not solve Algeria's economic inbalance between inland and coastal regions anyway, a serious issue that can trace back to Roman time. The truth is, Algeria, a French created state, would probably break into three to four smaller states if the military did not forcefully hold it together.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diocle View Post
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