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Thread: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

  1. #21
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    1) The right vs left divide in Latin America is a constant. As is US involvement in these fights. So already from that perspective one has to be extremely optimistic/naive to think they weren't. Apart from the fact that you've literally got their fingerprints all over everything.

    2) For the same reason one can be sure the right wingerz would have thrown a tantrum no matter what, even with another candidate instead of Morales. Because their main problem isn't with Morales, but with his policies. Anyone elected in his place with the same agenda would have triggered some reaction.

    3) As for how much worse Morales made it by wanting to stay, no one truly knows. At least I don't. The fact of the matter is that he won the election.

    Sure, you can believe the OAS when they claim there to have been manipulations, but that would be beyond naive:
    Quote Originally Posted by Wiki on OAS
    During the Cold War, this meant opposing leftism as a European influence; since the 1990s, the organization has focused on election monitoring. Headquartered in the United States' capital Washington, D.C., [...]
    Whups. Did I mention the US pays 60% of its budget too?

    If Morales manipulated the election results, that would make this a very special case of election manipulation. As in one-of-a-kind.

    The election results agree with the polls, and the actual beef isn't even as to whether or not Morales received the most votes, it's whether or not he received more than a 10% lead. The quick election results didn't indicate him having that lead, but that's not surprising at all. Poor areas have worse infrastructure are slower to give their results and that's where he has his voter base.

    As to this here:
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    People have agency
    Well let's take a look of one opposition "leader", shall we?
    This post from him on July 9th calling for a strike received 11 likes, 3 retweets and 20 views (before alternative media picked up on this now again, so right now it's at a whopping 122 views).

    Then, this happened:
    Quote Originally Posted by The Grayzone
    It was not until after the election that Camacho was thrust into the limelight and transformed into a celebrity by corporate media conglomerates like the local right-wing network Unitel, Telemundo, and CNN en Español.

    All of a sudden, Camacho’s tweets calling for Morales to resign were lighting up with thousands of retweets. The coup machinery had been activated.

    Mainstream outlets like the New York Times and Reuters followed by anointing the unelected Camacho as the “leader” of Bolivia’s opposition. But even as he lapped up international attention, key portions of the far-right activist’s background were omitted.

    Left unmentioned were Camacho’s deep and well-established connections to Christian extremist paramilitaries notorious for racist violence and local business cartels, as well as the right-wing governments across the region.

    https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/11/b...ho/#more-16456
    This is just one example of a general phenomenon. This is how leaders are made.


    Probably the best run down of all the media coverage is this one here:
    Quote Originally Posted by FAIR
    Army generals appearing on television to demand the resignation and arrest of an elected civilian head of state seems like a textbook example of a coup. And yet that is certainly not how corporate media are presenting the weekend’s events in Bolivia.

    No establishment outlet framed the action as a coup; instead, President Evo Morales “resigned” (ABC News, 11/10/19), amid widespread “protests” (CBS News, 11/10/19) from an “infuriated population” (New York Times, 11/10/19) angry at the “election fraud” (Fox News, 11/10/19) of the “full-blown dictatorship” (Miami Herald, 11/9/19). When the word “coup” is used at all, it comes only as an accusation from Morales or another official from his government, which corporate media have been demonizing since his election in 2006 (FAIR.org, 5/6/09, 8/1/12, 4/11/19).

    [...]

    In contrast, there was no coverage at all in US corporate media of the detailed new report from the independent Washington-based think tank CEPR, which claimed that the election results were “consistent” with the win totals announced. There was also scant mention of the kidnapping and torture of elected officials, the ransacking of Morales’ house, the burning of public buildings and of the indigenous Wiphala flag, all of which were widely shared on social media and would have suggested a very different interpretation of events.

    Words have power. And framing an event is a powerful method of conveying legitimacy and suggesting action. “Coups,” almost by definition, cannot be supported, while “protests” generally should be. Chilean President Sebastian Piñera, a conservative US-backed billionaire, has literally declared war on over a million people demonstrating against his rule. Corporate media, however, have framed that uprising not as a protest, but rather a “riot” (e.g., NBC News, 10/20/19; Reuters, 11/9/19; Toronto Sun, 11/9/19). In fact, Reuters (11/8/19) described the events as Piñera responding to “vandals” and “looters.” Who would possibly oppose that?

    [...]

    The media message from the Bolivia case is clear: A coup is not a coup if we like the outcome.

    https://fair.org/home/the-bolivian-c...-it-to-happen/
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  2. #22
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    He may have won the election (thats disputed) but he wasn't allowed to run for a fourth term and the referendum to change the term limits was defeated. The people of Bolivia spoke and they said no to increased term limits. He should have never ran.

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    He may have won the election (thats disputed) but he wasn't allowed to run for a fourth term and the referendum to change the term limits was defeated. The people of Bolivia spoke and they said no to increased term limits. He should have never ran.
    don't think it was smart either. Especially since his government was the one to introduce this rule in the first place. I am saying though that it likely didn't make a difference. And he was allowed to run by the constitutional court.
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    don't think it was smart either. Especially since his government was the one to introduce this rule in the first place. I am saying though that it likely didn't make a difference. And he was allowed to run by the constitutional court.
    Did he pack the constitutional court as was claimed on the previous page?

  5. #25

    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    So just going to ignore the economic data showing not failing but extremely successful???.

    So rather a successful socialist administration. A leader that made the not uncommon mistake of thinking he was the indispensable man. A population particularly the indigenous (and historically oppressed) feeling confident he was not (indispensable). Being Latin America can't say military involvement is a good thing. Read couple things suggesting his base was getting a bit conflicted over development first at the cost of environmentalism. That is the economy had improved so dramatically for the poor a fair percentage did think national wildlife reserves or parks needed more exploitation.
    Then why did Bolivians voted against letting him run again?

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Then why did Bolivians voted against letting him run again?
    Perhaps because they did not the path he was going down. In any case he did win subsequent presidential election the election and seeming with few irregularities. But notably his victory percentage looked to be only ~10% not the previous over 30%.

    http://cepr.net/publications/reports...ctions-2019-11
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Heh. So let's get back to this "people have agency" shtick:

    So here's the new president with no legitimacy except for the backing of the military (see the guy who's fastening her ribbon?) and the police (look to the right of her), and she's not even hiding it.

    So naturally people will have a right to go protest her, when the other side was allowed to protest the one with the legitimacy?


    Hmm... I do wonder what will happen next.



    Whoops! Totally not a coup.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Then why did Bolivians voted against letting him run again?
    Just to get it straight: Your claim that Morales' government was a "failing socialist regime" was debunked before you even made it. And we gave you the numbers of his performance across a wide range of metrics, and you're still not backing down? How about you back your claim up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Did he pack the constitutional court as was claimed on the previous page?
    You should ask those who made the claim to back it up, not me to refute/disprove everything.
    Last edited by Cookiegod; November 14, 2019 at 06:05 AM.
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    don't think it was smart either. Especially since his government was the one to introduce this rule in the first place. I am saying though that it likely didn't make a difference. And he was allowed to run by the constitutional court.
    The Bolivian Supreme Court allowed him to run on the basis of UN law. They pretty much just ignored the Bolivian Constitution and the 2016 referendum. There's nothing constitutional about their ruling.

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Just to get it straight: Your claim that Morales' government was a "failing socialist regime" was debunked before you even made it. And we gave you the numbers of his performance across a wide range of metrics, and you're still not backing down? How about you back your claim up?
    You keep dodging the question of why did he lose the referendum.

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    You keep dodging the question of why did he lose the referendum.
    So in other words you admit you've got nothing.
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    You keep dodging the question of why did he lose the referendum.
    Not three posts above Conan answered you.

    I ain't jokin' when it comes to mah paintings ಠ_ಠ

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    You keep dodging the question of why did he lose the referendum
    And yet he won the election and the OAS has not produced anything to back its hysteria of about the quick count stoppage (1), and the figures match the pre-election polling. And seeing as his new replacement is starting the day bending the rules as well I not sure Bolivia is really looking at a great new world of right rule. Let's see if that election gets delayed shall we or even really scheduled?

    1. Yep I saw that mumbo jumbo they spit out. But honestly I worked multiple election for Harris county as both It support on call and just grunt set and take down work.... On the grounds they site they could not have certified any election I worked on. I so no data showing a significant difference in count out of these marginal failures. Did level of cited mistakes rise to a significantly different amount than in past elections, because some always go wrong?

    Here I'll ad one - election officials routinely removed usb data sticks from computer with out first unmounting the device via software. A flagrant violation of best practices.
    Last edited by conon394; November 14, 2019 at 02:28 PM.
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    And yet he won the election and the OAS has not produced anything to back its hysteria of about the quick count stoppage,
    Does that really matter? Its not going to change he's not legally allowed to run for a fourth term nor change the results of the 2016 referendum. If you want to ignore constitutional law and referendums thats fine but in doing so you may end up being overthrown or worse set a very dangerous precedent for the opposition to ignore constitutional law and such in kind.

    If we are going to champion democracy and the rule of law, that means following it. Not picking and choosing when to.

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    Does that really matter? Its not going to change he's not legally allowed to run for a fourth term nor change the results of the 2016 referendum. If you want to ignore constitutional law and referendums thats fine but in doing so you may end up being overthrown or worse set a very dangerous precedent for the opposition to ignore constitutional law and such in kind.

    If we are going to champion democracy and the rule of law, that means following it. Not picking and choosing when to.
    Yes. You're the supreme authority on the Bolivian constitution. Not the Bolivian supreme court with several judges with careers spanning several decades each.
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    Yes. You're the supreme authority on the Bolivian constitution. Not the Bolivian supreme court with several judges with careers spanning several decades each.
    Except once again Bolivia's Supreme Court cited international law, not the Bolivian Constitution.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1DS2ZX


    In the decision, the court cited the American Convention on Human Rights, a multilateral treaty signed by many countries in the Americas.
    The secretary general of the Organization of American States, which is responsible for enforcing the treaty, said the clause cited in the decision “does not mean the right to perpetual power.”


    “Besides, presidential re-election was rejected by popular will in a referendum in 2016,” Luis Almagro wrote on Twitter late on Tuesday.
    The Bolivian Constitution remains unchanged. Nor does that change at all the Bolivian people spoke in 2016. They determined by a majority that the two-term limit shall remain meaning Eva should not have been able to run.

    You can try to ignore the referendum all you want but the people spoke in 2016. How about respecting the referendum?

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    Heh. So let's get back to this "people have agency" shtick:

    So here's the new president with no legitimacy except for the backing of the military (see the guy who's fastening her ribbon?) and the police (look to the right of her), and she's not even hiding it.

    So naturally people will have a right to go protest her, when the other side was allowed to protest the one with the legitimacy?
    She is assuming interim presidency as caretaker until fresh elections are held. Is that a problem?

    You should ask those who made the claim to back it up, not me to refute/disprove everything.
    Easy google search

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1XO2C8
    Morales, despite a 2016 referendum against lifting term limits, stood again after a court packed with loyalists gave him a green light to run indefinitely, citing his “human rights.”
    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    Yes. You're the supreme authority on the Bolivian constitution. Not the Bolivian supreme court with several judges with careers spanning several decades each.
    It is unlikely they were an independent court. They claimed term limits breached his human rights. Nothing to do with Bolivian law.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/29/...rily-dismissed
    Bolivian authorities have arbitrarily dismissed almost 100 judges since 2017, seriously undermining judicial independence in the country, Human Rights Watch said today. The Organization of American States (OAS) should convene a meeting of its Permanent Council to address ongoing justice system changes in Bolivia that are weakening the rule of law.
    President Evo Morales has repeatedly rejected judicial independence as a key component of democracy. In October 2018, for example, he said that judicial independence was a “doctrine of North America,” meaning the United States, and of “capitalism.”
    Lol this dumbass thinks separation of powers is capitalism.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There is nothing to suggest dramatically that his heart is giving out. His heart attack is a testament to how well he can recover from something like that.

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    She is assuming interim presidency as caretaker until fresh elections are held. Is that a problem?
    She lacked a sufficient number lawmakers present to that. Being south America I will be curious to see if the elections happen or maybe 'security' issues delay them.
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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I really so not seeing much US backing in this one. Again its not always the US. I doubt the Trump administration has enough focus to think of anything in South America beyond Venezuela and I am betting Trump can't even remember the guy he recognized there.
    Latin America is a US playground and they started a nuclear stopwatch on the Russians when they tried to establish bases there.

    There's a strong tradition of socialist/left leaning leaders battling right wing elites. The Right Wing elites often invoke US intervention (CIA, Marines, "War on Drugs" etc) to topple these, and this may be why the left wing guys have to satisfy the locals more (to have actual support in the face of foreign intervention), whereas the right wing guys tend to be monsters.

    I have no doubt the left wing leaders are also evil, but its more about how they behave than what my feelings are. looks like Bolivia had a regime that was forced to look after its people to generate consent. Its a knee jerk reaction to say "the Yanks did it" but when you look at the region its a reasonable assumption, and its hard to imagine they weren't aware and interested.

    I'm not sure who runs South America in the US system. Obviously the CIA has enormous reach, I guess the military is on call and there are various trade and diplomatic agencies involved too enforcing US economic hegemony. Big Oil has an ongoing private war with Venezuela paid for by US taxpayers. I'm sure the various agencies tread on one anothers' toes from time to time, IIRC Noriega was tipped out in a departmental contretemps (the "War on drugs" faction got sick of the CIA pawn trading coke into Miami or something like that).

    No doubt trump has no idea, but there are interested agencies and factions invested in having their people in Latin America.
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    She is assuming interim presidency as caretaker until fresh elections are held. Is that a problem?
    The interim caretakers of Chile in 1973.
    Is that a problem?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    Except once again Bolivia's Supreme Court cited international law, not the Bolivian Constitution.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1DS2ZX



    The Bolivian Constitution remains unchanged. Nor does that change at all the Bolivian people spoke in 2016. They determined by a majority that the two-term limit shall remain meaning Eva should not have been able to run.

    You can try to ignore the referendum all you want but the people spoke in 2016. How about respecting the referendum?
    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Easy google search

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1XO2C8

    It is unlikely they were an independent court. They claimed term limits breached his human rights. Nothing to do with Bolivian law.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/29/...rily-dismissed
    See, the arguments you two are giving are dumb for two reasons.
    Every country I know of on earth has the supreme court judges selected by its government. The US Republicans for example selected Kavanaugh as a judge because his interpretation of international law is in agreement with theirs. That doesn't make you two the arbiters of the American constitution. What's constitutional or not is decided by them and not by you. So accusing Morales of anything in this regard is already dumb.

    Secondly, the OAS (which, again, is a US proxy and not the independent body you guys against all evidence to the contrary pretend it is) has no international court like the EU has. The interpretation of international law still falls upon the individual supreme courts, not to the boss of the organisation.

    And thirdly for international treaties to be applicable, they have to be ratified and pass the legislative body of the country signing it.

    Without ever having studied law and without ever even having looked at the Bolivian constitution I am willing to bet with you that whatever treaty the supreme court based its decision on is probably included in the Bolivian constitution itself.

    You two are making an unfounded claim, so it's up to you to back it up. But I'm making it easy for you. Especially since I'm sure you two did your homework before deciding to back up a military takeover against the popular wishes. All you have to do is look up the Bolivian constitution and check if the relevant treaty is referenced there. Only if it's not, does your claim of it being unconstitutional even have the slightest merit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Lol this dumbass thinks separation of powers is capitalism.
    Yeah, which is why with a modicum of critical thought you ought to be sceptical about quotes framed that way.




    But more importantly, and this is the funniest/bizarrest thing here: You two defend a military take-over against the popular wishes. Of a candidate who in spite of her deletion of much of her twitter history still goes out of her way to tell the natives to go f** themselves. A woman whose legitimacy isn't just contentious but outright wrong. She did not even have the necessary number of senators present to be elected leader of the senate. Most likely because they made sure no one from the MAS could come in without fearing for their lives.
    Less than two thirds of the senate were present as she proclaimed herself president.

    And here you see the lower house announcing that it still doesn't recognise as president.

    It's actually something rare for me to see people supporting military coups installing a natives hating racist and beating down on civilians.
    Fascinating.







    Oh btw: This is the nephew of the dictator when he was caught smuggling half a ton (!) of Cocaine into Brazil on a plane.

    So go figure that the Cartels are in on this as well.

    Times really haven't changed since the Contras, have they?

    I sometimes wonder about the old people, if they ever think back to those days and think: Heh it's great that I supported the Contras/Mujahedeen/Juntas in this and that fight.
    If you have any self-awareness, you'll be doing that in a couple of years.

    Actually, you can do it now. Say it now and say it proudly:
    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus & Vanoi
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    Default Re: Bolivia president resigns. Danger of civil war ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    See, the arguments you two are giving are dumb for two reasons.
    Every country I know of on earth has the supreme court judges selected by its government. The US Republicans for example selected Kavanaugh as a judge because his interpretation of international law is in agreement with theirs. That doesn't make you two the arbiters of the American constitution. What's constitutional or not is decided by them and not by you. So accusing Morales of anything in this regard is already dumb.
    Did the Republicans also purposely pack the court like Axedous just proved Eva did? When the US Supreme court makes its various rulings, does it rule based on the US Constitution or international law?

    He has violated the Bolivian Constitution and defied the popular will of Bolivia by running in the first place.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    Without ever having studied law and without ever even having looked at the Bolivian constitution I am willing to bet with you that whatever treaty the supreme court based its decision on is probably included in the Bolivian constitution itself.
    Ok i'll take your bet. I'll wait for you to prove this claim. funny enough if the treaty was included in the Bolivian Constitution then why didn't the Bolivian supreme Court cite the Bolivian Constitution in its decision?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    You two are making an unfounded claim, so it's up to you to back it up. But I'm making it easy for you. Especially since I'm sure you two did your homework before deciding to back up a military takeover against the popular wishes.
    My source makes it clear the Bolivian Court ruled based on an international treaty. You have not provided any evidence to the contrary. Keep talking about popular will all you want but eva ignored a popular referendum so your point is moot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    All you have to do is look up the Bolivian constitution and check if the relevant treaty is referenced there. Only if it's not, does your claim of it being unconstitutional even have the slightest merit.
    Yeah, which is why with a modicum of critical thought you ought to be sceptical about quotes framed that way.
    again my source proves my claim. You are moving the goalposts and i'm not falling for that fallacy. I do wait for you to prove your bet you just made.




    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    But more importantly, and this is the funniest/bizarrest thing here: You two defend a military take-over against the popular wishes
    Whats bizarre is you complaining about popular will but having no problem with Eva ignoring the 2016 referendum to extend his term limits. Does popular will only count when it suits your bias?

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