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Thread: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    That's not entirely true, given that the exorbitant military spending is part of that same architecture (even though some of it surely is due to lobbying), and that money is lacking elsewhere. Military is a good stepping stone for poor people to get ahead, but other than that, spending on military is the worst way to help your economy. Much better would be to invest into a crumbling infastructure. This would automatically help not only the middle class, but also commerce in general. But as I surely don't have to lay out for you, said infrastructure is left to rot. Often quite literally. Point being that, and the same was true for the Roman empire, over-extension and economic decay come hand in hand.
    Hmm the 'exorbitant' military spending was a long term result of the great power rivalry with the USSR post WW2. The conflict was very much joined by both side with equal willingness. In that context NATO as such was hardly overreach. Also in general the US could sustain that spending. Neither the Korean war of the Vietnam war (the large scale military build up instituted by JFK) caused US debt to GDP ratios to do anything but decline. That's because the US used to tax itself.
    Over that time day post war to 1980 the US could afford both types of spending.

    If there was overreach it was started by Regan. Although not obviously and immediatly. After Vietnam and several years of not extravagant spending the US could afford the Reagan build up. After all if you not really fighting and expending war levels of ammo and equipment the cost was bearable. Problematically however Regan chose debt as his tool and not taxes (and pushed cut taxes in fact). That was deeply harmful. The FED seeing what amount double constant fiscal stimulus even during positive GDP growth kept rates high. Very negative impact on investments in the US vs oversees. Notably of course you can also see the internal investment get crowded out of the US budget.

    https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/54/item/19029

    page 6

    https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/54/item/18994

    https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/54/item/19032

    page 7

    As you can see defense spending did not really alter. Its juts other US spending (internal investments) was crowded out by debt payments and policy choice. Had the US maintained the 1970 tax code and had Regan say announced a surtax for his military plans no doubt the US budget would look much like the late 70s in the 80s.

    But in any case when the cold war ended the Busch and Clinton did act responsibly so the was not persistent budgetary overreach.

    Realistically the profound overreach was Bush. Fighting a endless war on terror and adding Iraq with debt and with his tax cut... well that was overreach but nothing to do with NATO or the budgets of it European members. Sad thing is if you net out the permanent Bush tax cuts, but keep just his temporary stimulus, keep the war in A -stan, but not Iraq and its quite likely the US would have been running a possible small surplus by his second term.
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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Funniest thing is that for a middle class American, your taxes aren't really lower than much of Europe. And if you count in the health insurance you ought to have and pay for, it's more.

    But this isn't the place to discuss any of that. I agree with you on Reaganomics and all that. My point is however, that NATO is part of that global architecture that's at least partly the cause of the gigantic American military spending. Reagan and even Bush aren't that great explanations as to why they have to continue this path.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    NATO is a voluntary organization. If France wants to leave, they're free to do so. I'm sure Eastern Europe is of a different mind, though. Even with Trump as president, an alliance with the US via NATO is still a more reliable shield against Russian aggression than whatever scheme Macron is cooking up.

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Yup, now do the same with Iran trying to "leave the US" 1953, all those Latin American states trying to "leave the US" (as your meme puts it so succinctly, albeit incorrectly), etc. etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cookiegod View Post
    From Socrates over Jesus to me it has always been the lot of any true visionary to be rejected by the reactionary bourgeoisie
    Qualis noncives pereo! #justiceforcookie #egalitéfraternitécookié #CLM

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post

    A NATO member state has been attacked exactly TWICE since it was established. In 1982 Argentina attacked the soveriegn territory of the UK, no NATO state provided significant military assistance.
    Isn't that the point though? A strong NATO force is just as much a deterent to war with the west as it would be an alliance of forces in a war.

    I don't agree with the brain dead french president, nor did I vote for Trump, but most Americans I know agree with Trump on one thing: the other NATO members (specifically those not meeting the minimum budget for defense) need to pick up the slack.

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Lord Ismay

    Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay was NATO’s first Secretary General, a position he was initially reluctant to accept. By the end of his tenure however, Ismay had become the biggest advocate of the organisation he had famously said earlier on in his political career, was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”


    I can't see how a increasing of the german military spending from 49,5 billion $ to 80-90 billion $ would not destroy the balance of power in Europe and make the european economical hegemon to the local military one.

    And personal i give a about what Americans think and want, when their President is increasing tensions in Near East with the global recognition of Israeli settlements in the West Jordan Area. The actual US government spits on european security interests, as new refugees from an increased near east conflict will not migrate to US, but instead reach european coasts.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; November 20, 2019 at 09:09 AM.
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  7. #47

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Lord Ismay

    Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay was NATO’s first Secretary General, a position he was initially reluctant to accept. By the end of his tenure however, Ismay had become the biggest advocate of the organisation he had famously said earlier on in his political career, was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”
    Quote Originally Posted by NATO
    Ismay realised that one of his most important duties would be to publicise NATO as much as possible so that the populations of member states would support the fledging organisation. A warm, good natured, and informal speaker fond of illustrating his points with anecdotes, Ismay rarely passed on an opportunity to speak publicly and travelled widely throughout the member countries. During his term, a NATO flag was developed – a four point compass on a dark blue background – providing a recognisable symbol of the Alliance.

    The formerly reluctant Secretary General retired in 1957 but continued to promote NATO. Ismay’s publication NATO: The First Five Years remains an excellent explanation of why the Treaty was signed, how the civilian and military machinery worked, and what was accomplished from 1949 to 1954.

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/d...ied_137930.htm
    As the late great Paul Harvey always said, “and now you know the rest of the story.”

    I can't see how a increasing of the german military spending from 49,5 billion $ to 80-90 billion $ would not destroy the balance of power in Europe and make the european economical hegemon to the local military one.

    And personal i give a about what Americans think and want, when their President is increasing tensions in Near East with the global recognition of Israeli settlements in the West Jordan Area. The actual US government spits on european security interests, as new refugees from an increased near east conflict will not migrate to US, but instead reach european coasts.
    Well, based on just this post, it seems you share some affinity for the worldview espoused by the US administration responsible for increasing those tensions; namely, the view that organizations like NATO are useless or even tyrannical. I won’t use the words “child-like” to describe that view because, as you are European, I’m sure you have a different perspective that could be more excusable compared to an American that espouses the same limited thinking.

    I suppose 30 years of relative peace and prosperity in the West is enough time for some to forget how the world community as we know it was built. “European security” exists as a concept because of projects like NATO, and they’ve been far more successful at achieving their stated goals than your framing would indicate. If Macron wants to play Napoleon and help create a real European Army to counter Russia and fight Islamic terrorism, I think you might be hard pressed to find a random American who disagrees with the principle. I for one would be happy if the concept worked out and US resources could shift more decidedly to Asia. As of now, it appears European leaders are content to continue outsourcing most of their defense to the US, which means NATO is and will continue to be vital to European security for the foreseeable future. Also, blaming the failures (or total lack) of EU migration policy on the US isn’t very compelling.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Statement to the typical conservative US propaganda above:

    Till 1990 the Bundeswehr was with 495.000 soldiers and more than 2000 heavy battle tanks the meatshield of the Nato. We defended ourself.

    Since then the US defended in two gulf wars and the war on terror their oil interests in the Gulf, especially the autocratic, allied Gulf monarchies there, not Europe.

    Especially the instability caused by the unjustified, failed US invasion of 2002/2003 led to the rise of ISIS and millions of refugees from Iraq and Syria to Europe.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; November 20, 2019 at 02:27 PM.
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  9. #49

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Statement to the typical conservative US propaganda above:


    Till 1990 the Bundeswehr was with 495.000 soldiers and more than 2000 heavy battle tanks the meatshield of the Nato. We defended ourself.


    Since then the US defended in two gulf wars and the war on terror their oil interests in the Gulf, especially the autocratic, allied Gulf monarchies there, not Europe.


    Especially the instability caused by the unjustified, failed US invasion of 2002/2003 led to the rise of ISIS and millions of refugees from Iraq and Syria to Europe.

    Your retort is a strawman. The only comment I have regarding anti-US handwringing you’ve espoused here is that you should elect leaders who share your isolationist enthusiasm for a return to national as opposed to international defense, and live with the consequences. So far, said leaders mostly do not. This could be due to the fact that, thanks to US/European cooperation exemplified by NATO, that “meatshield” as you’ve described it never needed to be used.

    I can think of at least two reasons why neighboring countries would be highly uncomfortable relying on the Bundeswehr for defense, but if the Germans can pull it off, more power to them. If they can do a better job than the US at making sure Islamic radicals and local petty dictators can’t put a chokehold on the Persian Gulf, one of the world’s most vital energy and shipping arteries, then that would be even cooler.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  10. #50

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Your retort is a strawman. The only comment I have regarding anti-US handwringing you’ve espoused here is that you should elect leaders who share your isolationist enthusiasm for a return to national as opposed to international defense, and live with the consequences. So far, said leaders mostly do not. This could be due to the fact that, thanks to US/European cooperation exemplified by NATO, that “meatshield” as you’ve described it never needed to be used.
    Or it was just never needed because of MAD and nukes.
    an think of at least two reasons why neighboring countries would be highly uncomfortable relying on the Bundeswehr for defense, but if the Germans can pull it off, more power to them. If they can do a better job than the US at making sure Islamic radicals and local petty dictators can’t put a chokehold on the Persian Gulf, one of the world’s most vital energy and shipping arteries, then that would be even cooler.
    Last time I checked, a huge chunk of Persian Gulf is occupied by Saudi Arabia, which is quite literally a dictatorship of Islamist radicals. Who, along with their American and Israeli allies tended to be the main destabilizing force in the region.
    Plus it is fair to point out that leaving Middle East altogether seems like most sensible option. After all, it is Iran's backyard, so it would make sense to leave it Iranians to keep the region in order.

  11. #51

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    So France joins and leaves it´s support to NATO whenever it wants? https://augengeradeaus.net/2015/06/f...o-air-defense/

  12. #52

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Or it was just never needed because of MAD and nukes.
    US nukes were placed all over Europe as part of defense agreements like NATO nuclear sharing policies. There is no “or.”
    Last time I checked, a huge chunk of Persian Gulf is occupied by Saudi Arabia, which is quite literally a dictatorship of Islamist radicals. Who, along with their American and Israeli allies tended to be the main destabilizing force in the region.
    Plus it is fair to point out that leaving Middle East altogether seems like most sensible option. After all, it is Iran's backyard, so it would make sense to leave it Iranians to keep the region in order.
    Israeli theocracy bad. Saudi theocracy bad. Iranian theocracy good.

    NATO has very little to do with “leaving the Middle East.” NATO’s role in the Middle East has expanded as a broader approach to collective security of NATO member states to fight global Islamic terrorism. The context, as I said, is that blaming the situation in the region for the EU’s lack of migration policy and enforcement is nonsensical. The US manages millions of legal immigrants and their subsequent offspring every year, with miscellaneous failed Latin American states sending fresh batches every now and again. We manage. The Europeans can too.

    Iran is engaged in proxy wars across the region just as actively as other Gulf States, if not more so, including an escalating war against her own people more recently. If you want to empower Iran to build a regional empire, set up proxies across the Middle East, export the “Global Islamic Revolution” around the world with suicide bombers in Paris, and close the Gulf to extort the entire planet the way Tehran is trying to do with “nuclear energy,” vote for leaders who share your worldview. I hope you lose.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Statement to the typical conservative US propaganda above:

    Till 1990 the Bundeswehr was with 495.000 soldiers and more than 2000 heavy battle tanks the meatshield of the Nato. We defended ourself.
    I don't disagree with you that Germany represented the front line of any cold war potentially going hot. I know this because my father was stationed on the border as part of the sizable American military force guarding that front line. The American and British (NATO) contribution was hardly insignificant. West Germany did not defend itself on its own.

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by pchalk View Post
    I don't disagree with you that Germany represented the front line of any cold war potentially going hot. I know this because my father was stationed on the border as part of the sizable American military force guarding that front line. The American and British (NATO) contribution was hardly insignificant. West Germany did not defend itself on its own.
    Germany was a tripline for a outbreak of war back then, these days it's the american bases in the baltics and Poland that are the deterrent. That's probably a part of the reason why Germany's military has gotten so shambolic now that they're not on the frontlines to to speak.

  15. #55

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by pchalk View Post
    I don't disagree with you that Germany represented the front line of any cold war potentially going hot. I know this because my father was stationed on the border as part of the sizable American military force guarding that front line. The American and British (NATO) contribution was hardly insignificant. West Germany did not defend itself on its own.

    During the height of the Cold War the British Army on the Rhine (BAOR) constituted around 53,000 men.

    The problem today is nobody believes they will ever have to fight a conventional war against an equal foe anymore. All the wars since WW2 have been proxy wars involving minor nations.

  16. #56

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    US nukes were placed all over Europe as part of defense agreements like NATO nuclear sharing policies. There is no “or.”
    If NATO never existed and there were no American nukes in Europe, many European nations would still have their own and so would US on its own territory, making any Soviet plans to invade Western Europe just as promising as invading Europe under NATO, but at much smaller cost to taxpayers of Western nations. That a pretty big "or".
    Israeli theocracy bad. Saudi theocracy bad. Iranian theocracy good.

    NATO has very little to do with “leaving the Middle East.” NATO’s role in the Middle East has expanded as a broader approach to collective security of NATO member states to fight global Islamic terrorism. The context, as I said, is that blaming the situation in the region for the EU’s lack of migration policy and enforcement is nonsensical. The US manages millions of legal immigrants and their subsequent offspring every year, with miscellaneous failed Latin American states sending fresh batches every now and again. We manage. The Europeans can too.

    Iran is engaged in proxy wars across the region just as actively as other Gulf States, if not more so, including an escalating war against her own people more recently. If you want to empower Iran to build a regional empire, set up proxies across the Middle East, export the “Global Islamic Revolution” around the world with suicide bombers in Paris, and close the Gulf to extort the entire planet the way Tehran is trying to do with “nuclear energy,” vote for leaders who share your worldview. I hope you lose.
    Iran was a major factor behind defeating ISIS. Which happens to be mainly result of US invasion of Iraq, along with Saudi Arabia throwing cash and resources to various Islamist factions. Israel's foreign policy in the region is simply irrational and will heavily bite them in the ass. I'm sure that if their plan worked and ISIS defeated Assad, "caliphate" would gladly leave them alone.
    The only problem with European migration policy is that there is too much immigration. Interests of taxpayers, just like in case with US, should come first over any alleged external humanitarian concerns, especially if such concerns are generated mainly due to harmful and dangerous foreign policies of other countries. Might as well clip the rose at the bud and leave the Middle Eastern people alone.
    Iran's policy is merely a reaction to hostile foreign policy of US-Saudi-Israeli Axis. Iran wouldn't have to quite legitimately react to these countries backing Islamist radicals, bombing and invading sovereign countries and trying to put nation's economy into full nelson for alleged plans to obtain weaponry that US and Israel already have and Saudis are on their way to acquire. As much as I hate to debunk this neoconservative narrative (just kidding, I don't), Iran and its allies are simply the lesser evil from pragmatic perspective.

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    If NATO never existed and there were no American nukes in Europe, many European nations would still have their own and so would US on its own territory, making any Soviet plans to invade Western Europe just as promising as invading Europe under NATO, but at much smaller cost to taxpayers of Western nations. That a pretty big "or".
    More promising. The Soviets already could smash through NATO defenses as they were. Without NATO Soviets would have had a much easier time invading Western Europe.

    Only two European nations developed nuclear weapons and considering Soviets were willing to invade Western Europe even with the threat of nuclear attack by NATO i seriously doubt they'd be scared of the couple hundred nukes the UK and France possessed. The Soviets themselves planned on using nukes to help their armies advance anyways.

  18. #58

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    More promising. The Soviets already could smash through NATO defenses as they were. Without NATO Soviets would have had a much easier time invading Western Europe.
    Again, what deterred Soviets was presence of large nuclear arsenal on both sides. If nukes weren't there, then both US and USSR would have had a "hot war" regardless of existence of NATO.
    Only two European nations developed nuclear weapons and considering Soviets were willing to invade Western Europe even with the threat of nuclear attack by NATO i seriously doubt they'd be scared of the couple hundred nukes the UK and France possessed. The Soviets themselves planned on using nukes to help their armies advance anyways.
    That's a pretty hot take, given how now power after WW2 was nuke-happy, even the only one that used them for military purposes.

  19. #59

    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    If NATO never existed and there were no American nukes in Europe, many European nations would still have their own and so would US on its own territory, making any Soviet plans to invade Western Europe just as promising as invading Europe under NATO, but at much smaller cost to taxpayers of Western nations. That a pretty big "or".

    Iran was a major factor behind defeating ISIS. Which happens to be mainly result of US invasion of Iraq, along with Saudi Arabia throwing cash and resources to various Islamist factions. Israel's foreign policy in the region is simply irrational and will heavily bite them in the ass. I'm sure that if their plan worked and ISIS defeated Assad, "caliphate" would gladly leave them alone.

    The only problem with European migration policy is that there is too much immigration. Interests of taxpayers, just like in case with US, should come first over any alleged external humanitarian concerns, especially if such concerns are generated mainly due to harmful and dangerous foreign policies of other countries. Might as well clip the rose at the bud and leave the Middle Eastern people alone.

    Iran's policy is merely a reaction to hostile foreign policy of US-Saudi-Israeli Axis. Iran wouldn't have to quite legitimately react to these countries backing Islamist radicals, bombing and invading sovereign countries and trying to put nation's economy into full nelson for alleged plans to obtain weaponry that US and Israel already have and Saudis are on their way to acquire. As much as I hate to debunk this neoconservative narrative (just kidding, I don't), Iran and its allies are simply the lesser evil from pragmatic perspective.
    You do love your self-congratulatory, evidence-free non-sequiturs, don’t you? Your alternate historical fiction sans NATO is irrelevant, as is your off-topic sermonizing about “pragmatism” in the Middle East.

    Debunking your wildly counterfactual Iran narrative, which has nothing to do with NATO:
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    As I said, all major players native to the region engage in the unsavory things you’ve attempted to pin on “the US-Saudi-Israeli Axis.” Iran has been doing it for as long and as aggressively as any other, if not more so. Trump defied standing US policy to deliver nuclear tech and resources to his Saudi masters for the financial benefit of his political donors/supporters’ clandestine commercial interests. If Israel has it, she’s at least smart enough not to advertise and give her neighbors cause to wage total war against her.

    Iran fought ISIS because the latter was local Sunni competition. The Ayatollah’s regime is, after all, the Shia ISIS. Tehran’s foreign policy is defined by the internal weakness of her fragile regime, jealousy of her neighbors’ position as the oil barons of the world, and Islamic fanaticism. It is not a defensive reaction. It is a core component of Iranian Islamist Revolutionary doctrine, including, for example, attempts to “defensively” bomb civilian dissidents in Paris last year.

    Tehran is so terrified of perceived political threats to her Islamist regime, she was willing to bomb civilians in one of the few relatively powerful western countries openly taking her side and assisting her against the US. As we’ve seen from Tehran’s ongoing master class in total and utter repression and nuclear extortion unto the present day, your apologism and deflections are merely the standard disgusting fare of the tankie interwebs. They’re also visibly counterfactual at this point, demonstrated openly by Tehran’s own actions.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; November 22, 2019 at 08:41 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

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    Default Re: Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Again, what deterred Soviets was presence of large nuclear arsenal on both sides. If nukes weren't there, then both US and USSR would have had a "hot war" regardless of existence of NATO.
    If there is no NATO then how would nukes deter the Soviets again? Remember its MAD that made nuclear war unwinnable. Without the US's arsenal then what would stop the Soviets? Again France and the UK are the only ones with nuclear weapons. They don't have enough to ensure MAD with the Soviets and the Warsaw Pact and plenty of European nations don't possess any nuclear weapons. What stops the Soviets from invading them?


    That's a pretty hot take, given how now power after WW2 was nuke-happy, even the only one that used them for military purposes.
    So your saying that no one would have used nukes? Because that means the Soviets could definitely take Western Europe with ease without NATO.

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