UK election thread

[mongrel]

As it says on the tin, anything relating to the election, points of interest , polls and what have you.

To kick off , Jacob Reees Mogg almost single-handedly kicked the Tory Campaign in the nuts.


On discussing the Grenfell fire report on LBC radio (part one of two) he suggested that the 72 victims of the disaster lacked common sense.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-50302573

Not helped by MP Andrew Bridgen, who suggested that Rees-Mogg was indeed cleverer than the victims of the fire.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...suggests-video


. Stormzy is incandescent. (Twitter account contains bad language)

Stormzy
This ain’t about politics it’s about the people who govern us lacking the most BASIC level of humanity or empathy it’s nuts to me. Then this same bruddah gonna be deciding the laws and decisions that affect us lmao off.These man are the REAL LIFE evil villains from the films

Fair summary I say. Curious to see how the opposition make use of this free gift.We won't be seeing Rees-Mogg again for the next few weeks, thats for sure.

[TheLeft]

It seems that there are a sizeable chunk of the British electorate that has something approaching 'Stockholm Syndrome' where working class people who admit they have been adversely effected by Austerity still slavishly vote Tory. Why?? It's great news for Boris, he knows that he can do literally anything (crash the economy, punish the poor even more & kick down against minorities etc), and yet his 'Stockholm Syndromers' will still vote for him. It's also the reason why we'll see the Tories returned to power.

Imagine actually thinking that Boris and his Conservative Party give a single solitary flying feck about anything other than themselves.

[Elmetiacos]

Alun Cairns, Secretary of State for Wales, has resigned having been caught obviously lying about an attempt to collapse a rape trial by his friend and candidate. I said months ago that the Conservatives couldn't possibly run as bad a campaign as they did with Theresa May, but they are so far making a good attempt at it. Although Joe Public will have forgotten about it by the weekend, if this sort of thing keeps on happening, it won't do their cause any good. It strikes me as an odd strategy that's being embarked upon, ostensibly winning by taking seats in the Northeast and the West Midlands which voted Leave the most, when this risks losing seats in London and the South... if there's one thing we Northerners are painfully aware of, it's how few votes we are worth compared to the folk down South. Capturing 20 Leave seats from Labour only to lose 30 Remain seats to the Lib-Dems is not going to be a win.

[Aexodus]

Well the conservative's own ineptitude has stunted their own campaign, I wanna talk about the video they edited of Keir Starmer on GMB in which they show an out of context clip of him to make it appear as though he was struggling to answer the question. They don't even need to do things that desperate considering who they are up against in this election and that they are 7 points or so clear in the polls.https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...-tv-appearance

[mongrel]

Given all the above the Tories have made a poor start, if it continues, a repeat of 2017 is on the cards methinks. Very concerned that the Tories are using deepfakes rather than promote their cause properly, but they are clearly too inept to get away with it.

Talking of which, Jo Swinson's bottom needs a good spanking. This is not a sexist or fetish dream but rather my view on her party's decision to publish leaflets featuring data suggesting they are ahead of other parties in various constituencies, when they damned well are not. For example they are recommending that the best way to remove the Tories in York Outer is to vote LibDem despite Labour coming second in the last general election with over 4 times the votes received for the LibDems. Disgraceful.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ction-material



I'm puzzled by Farage's decision not to stand for Parlaiment. UKIP nearly won Thurrock last time (1,000 votes short) . I find it inconceivable that Farage could not take the seat under the present circumstances. I get his reasoning, that he wants to campaign across the UK, but effectively the first question he will have to answer every time is why he turned down the chance to face the electorate himself.


I'll take it as read that UKIP will be a no show again, their leader, the aptly named Dick Braine having resigned recently.

[caratacus]

Talking of which, Jo Swinson's bottom needs a good spanking. This is not a sexist or fetish dream but rather my view on her party's decision to publish leaflets featuring data suggesting they are ahead of other parties in various constituencies, when they damned well are not.

Sure if you say so Mongrel, but would you have said the same about Vince Cable or even Nicola Sturgeon though?

Conservatives playing a real gammy wicket in the election campaign so far despite ther lead in the polls. Both Labour and Conservative seem to be trying to pay a game of damage limitation wth a bunch of lame candidates by appearing almost subdued in their initial approach. Neither party want to make Brexit the focus of the election for fear of alienating either for or leave amongst their voters. Its like 2017 all over again, despite this election being held because of Brexit.

Lets not pretend though that it is only the Conservatives that have flawed and problematic MPs, the House of Commons is packed with them and Labour have a fair good share.

General Election 2019: Labour bans candidates from standing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50319044

Labour to debate whether Keith Vaz will stand as MP at election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...mp-at-election
Shadow ministers fear his candidature could become distraction during campaign

General election 2019: Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson stands down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50325666

[mongrel]

Sure if you say so Mongrel, but would you have said the same about Vince Cable or even Nicola Sturgeon though?

Conservatives playing a real gammy wicket in the election campaign so far despite ther lead in the polls. Both Labour and Conservative seem to be trying to pay a game of damage limitation wth a bunch of lame candidates by appearing almost subdued in their initial approach. Neither party want to make Brexit the focus of the election for fear of alienating either for or leave amongst their voters. Its like 2017 all over again, despite this election being held because of Brexit.

Lets not pretend though that it is only the Conservatives that have flawed and problematic MPs, the House of Commons is packed with them and Labour have a fair good share.

I can't imagine Vince or Nicola being that naughty. There's times when I thought Tom Watson deserved a spanking, not for his views, but because of his lousy timing. He's gone now, as have a lot of One Nation Tories, which is perhaps an indication that the Major/Blair/Brown/Cameron concensus is truly dead.

[Elmetiacos]

The call by Ian Austin to vote Conservative doesn't really deserve headline status, since he's already taken several steps down the Melanie Phillips path and had de facto switched to the Tories by accepting a post from Theresa May in the Summer, but what is interesting was Rebecca Long-Bailey's response on the Today programme this morning. He is a man eminently bashable, having got caught up in the expenses scandal back in 2009 and having being reprimanded by the Speaker on numerous occasions (he was the one described as a "boot boy" by David Cameron) but she instead praised his work as an MP and said he didn't get on with Jeremy Corbyn... so we have a "when they go low, we go higher" response on one hand and thinly veiled class war on the other with "I wasn't born to rule". Hmm.

[Cyclops]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50333167

I guess the banks have a fair idea how the election will pan out.

Its a lot of noise and two general elections to throw out a plebiscite and admit the financial elite matter more than the nominal will of the people.

Personally I think any kind of a free trade deal (Remain or soft Brexit) with Europe (including as it necessarily does a the erosion of sovereignty rejected by the Brexit vote) is the smart pragmatic move. While people generally only benefit a little from increased prosperity they bear the entire brunt of austerity.

I don't think the British people have any sovereignty to lose in any case. After the initial shock of the stupid decision to leave Europe (where the answer was definitely a Hard Brexit) the debate has been rapidly shuffled over too "yes but what sort of soft Brexit do we want?" and even "hmm, I think they reeeeaaaaalllly meant Remain after all".

Is Corbyn a sort-of Clinton albatross around the neck of Labour? We had an unlikely conservative victory here in Australia earlier this year where a boring and babbling Labor leader lost a pretty winnable election. Basically he dealt a massive hand of policy promises that made him a huge target, had he kept shtum the accumulation of fallout from savage infighting among Liberal PMs would have let victory fall into his lap.

I guess Corbyn's case is pretty distinct from the other two, he's seen as hard left rather than centrist and this is pretty much a single issue election. Ho does he deliver prosperity and happy banks while stabbing popular will in the back?

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Well the conservative's own ineptitude has stunted their own campaign, I wanna talk about the video they edited of Keir Starmer on GMB in which they show an out of context clip of him to make it appear as though he was struggling to answer the question. They don't even need to do things that desperate considering who they are up against in this election and that they are 7 points or so clear in the polls.https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...-tv-appearance

It appears such an own goal with this indeed- they literally created controversy out of nothing- they're doing the same yesterday too with the Corbyn=Stalin and then refusing to say that being executed is worse than paying extra tax (The Andrew Neil Interview was amazing to watch).

On the edited video though- i suspect it might have been an attempt at being very clever (and still might have been)they've employed Sean Topham and Ben Guerin from Australia who ran an election strategy for the Aus libds called 'Boomer memes'- essentially they take controversial/false data that has a core message that essentially is 'trash' and put it up on social media. The idea is (and it worked in Australia) that it's so stupid/controversial that opponents share it to mock it, and due to the discussion/attention- even mostly negative it manipulates twitter, Facebook and google algorithms to appear frequently. Through this re-sharing and 'going viral' few people then actually check the actual source to see the apology/correction/to see if its edited/dumb.

The message then may 'resonate' with some voters, simply through exposure and get the basic/underling point across regardless of how it was delivered. Again worked really well in Australia- however this edit, i think has been so poorly handled i just can't see the political capital being worth the sleaze accusations their now heaped with. Saying that though- i've still seen the edited video shared online with the commentators genuinely believing it and laughing at Starmer for having no answers- when in fact he did respond.

@All- but generally aye, i think i can't add much that ya'll haven't said- Currently it's looking very much like a repeat of 2017 for the Tories, something i thought would be unimaginable. Just an hour ago there was this- https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1573156450

Another Tory candidate found to have made really stupid remarks about rape that forced Boris to distance himself. A fair few parties seem to be having trouble with their candidate vetting process (Its like both big parties have given up on retaining any presence in Scotland- they're all over the place there)- the difference being so far is that the Conservatives are still letting there guys stand.

Does anyone know by the way the status of the Conservative activist base? In 2017 aftermath the reports were essentially unless something radical was done (Which it wasn't), they would suffer huge manpower shortages due to a lack of activists and poor organization. I can't find any info on if this is fixed or not, but it could be decisive. I know its not the same issue directly, but it might also be why the Conservatives are 'faking' their rallies. Boris's launch campaign when a picture of the room was actually taken, held around 50 odd people, i'm guessing they are either trying to run a very tightly controlled public appearance campaign for him (hence no real questions and select audiences that use clever camera work to hide the spareness- this would see this election as a May 2.0 indeed), or they just can't spare the people.

EDIT: @Cyclops - How Labour tackles Corbyn will be interesting, last time around Corbyn appeared in places where he could seize the young vote or had resonance (hence the rise in Labour vote share in urban areas and Uni towns), whereas many other Labour MP's essentially at the doorstop pretended he did not exist- they removed him from their local constituency leaflets and made a big show of 'vote for me, forget him'.

This accidentally was actually quite a good strategy. I'm not sure whether they'll be able to get away with it again though, or indeed with Corbyn's control of the party being now far more firmly established, if he'll let them do a decentralized campaign.

[caratacus]

This election is turning into a game of Trump cards between the Tories and Labour over who has the most stupidist candidate. And lets face it, with so many to chosse from, it will make for some interesting few days until 14th November the closing date for candidate completed nomination forms. Tonnight the Conservatives played a keen card with the selection and deselection of Nick Conrad.

General election 2019: Nick Conrad quits as Tory candidate over rape comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50341292

Hopefully tomorrow it will be Zarah Sultana who seems like another example of "what are on earth are they doing there"! I think the Conservatives will certainly make it so after their own gaff.

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-50292235

EDIT - No need to wait for tomorrow here is another

Labour candidate in Aberdeenshire quits in anti-Semitism row
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-50338256

I would be very surprised if there aren't some major upheavals in the next few days seeing what is going on, especially in the Labour camp. Could his shadow cabinet rebel again by walking out at the last minute, in a calculated move to undermine and ruin Corbyn's chances.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Aexodus]

It appears such an own goal with this indeed- they literally created controversy out of nothing- they're doing the same yesterday too with the Corbyn=Stalin and then refusing to say that being executed is worse than paying extra tax (The Andrew Neil Interview was amazing to watch).

Ohhhhhhhhh boiiiiiiiii I loved that interview. First time I laughed out loud on a political programme.

''Is he [Corbyn] going to have them shot" (speaking about wealthy people)

"I don't know"

Everyone please watch this video plssss it's so good.



Hey has anyone talked about this yet

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/tories-back-candidate-francesca-o-brien-benefits-street-remarks-gower

Tories back candidate who said benefits claimants should be 'put down'



Work and pensions secretary says electing Francesca O’Brien a ‘matter for people of Gower’

[Dante Von Hespburg]

This election is turning into a game of Trump cards between the Tories and Labour over who has the most stupidist candidate. And lets face it, with so many to chosse from, it will make for some interesting few days until 14th November the closing date for candidate completed nomination forms. Tonnight the Conservatives played a keen card with the selection and deselection of Nick Conrad.

Hopefully tomorrow it will be Zarah Sultana who seems like another example of "what are on earth are they doing there"! I think the Conservatives will certainly make it so after their own gaff.

EDIT - No need to wait for tomorrow here is another

I would be very surprised if there aren't some major upheavals in the next few days seeing what is going on, especially in the Labour camp. Could his shadow cabinet rebel again by walking out at the last minute, in a calculated move to undermine and ruin Corbyn's chances.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I am truly wondering currently if the problem maybe isn't that both parties vetting processes have fallen apart, but genuinely if there is a lack of candidates for both parties available that fit some specific requirements, especially as the 'center' of both groups seems to have been kicked out. For instance- Corbyn, its a radical (for the UK at least) left-wing platform... and ironically the Conservatives have also shifted to the left with their spending plans- the FT analysis of both parties budgets so far came to the conclusion we're essentially no matter who gets in overturning Thatcher's reforms completely regarding finance and the states role as both parties are promising state-led spending and direction on a scale that we haven't seen since the 1970s.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

This election is turning into a game of Trump cards between the Tories and Labour over who has the most stupidist candidate. And lets face it, with so many to chosse from, it will make for some interesting few days until 14th November the closing date for candidate completed nomination forms. Tonnight the Conservatives played a keen card with the selection and deselection of Nick Conrad.

Hopefully tomorrow it will be Zarah Sultana who seems like another example of "what are on earth are they doing there"! I think the Conservatives will certainly make it so after their own gaff.

EDIT - No need to wait for tomorrow here is another

I would be very surprised if there aren't some major upheavals in the next few days seeing what is going on, especially in the Labour camp. Could his shadow cabinet rebel again by walking out at the last minute, in a calculated move to undermine and ruin Corbyn's chances.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I am truly wondering currently if the problem maybe isn't that both parties vetting processes have fallen apart, but genuinely if there is a lack of candidates for both parties available that fit some specific requirements, especially as the 'center' of both groups seems to have been kicked out. For instance- Corbyn, its a radical (for the UK at least) left-wing platform... and ironically the Conservatives are also running on a very radical platform that essentially is center left in terms of economics (and certainly Keynes is back in force) as they have also shifted to the left with their spending plans- the FT analysis of both parties budgets so far came to the conclusion we're essentially no matter who gets in overturning Thatcher's reforms completely regarding finance and the states role as both parties are promising state-led spending and direction on a scale that we haven't seen since the 1970s- the main difference is partly of course the overall amounts on offer (though actually there is not that much between them relatively) and of course 'how' the state will intervene- i.e. through doing it itself or taking the lead and directing the private sector.

The point of this for the Conservatives is that anyone who wants a small-tax, small-state can forget it. Even with the Conservatives actively looking to borrow, the limits they have put on that mean there is literally no space for tax cuts of any kind to any group because the money is all spoken for in extra investment- if they offer them we're looking at an expanding deficit, something they've said they would not do as well.

https://www.ft.com/content/0ebe442e-...EtKrmsSVhQKfSE

What i find really interesting is the amazing use of double-speak by Savid Javid in his speech (if anyone saw it)- essentially the Chancellor adopted a Keynesian approach and admitted it works and that borrowing is a fantastic idea to invest, and the state has a role in this- a direct contradiction of austerity, while also promoting how austerity had been great in the sentence just before.

So radical policies for both the big guys i suspect would effect the quantity and perhaps quality of 'acceptable' candidates.

Its literally the only thing i can think of as to why we're getting as Aexodus has just posted above- frankly politically toxic people being put up by their parties. Its insane.

Ohhhhhhhhh boiiiiiiiii I loved that interview. First time I laughed out loud on a political programme.

''Is he [Corbyn] going to have them shot" (speaking about wealthy people)

"I don't know"

Everyone please watch this video plssss it's so good.



Hey has anyone talked about this yet

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/tories-back-candidate-francesca-o-brien-benefits-street-remarks-gower

Lol! Second time it gets so much better as i'm not just looking at him just incredulously . I guess we're now into turbo-smears, because your standard smears were just not good enough. I personally can't wait for the next politician to say 'Well i'm not comfortable saying that Corbyn won't build Gulags for the rich, i just don't know'.

In terms of the candidate aye, i get that Labour has also had set-backs, but again unlike the Conservatives they as far as i've kept abreast with are actually making these people quit and replacing them- the fact the Conservatives are mostly keeping these politically toxic figures as candidates, and worse that as with the Cairn rather defending them.. it's like they don't really want to win this election, an election in which every seat now counts. It's weird and again i can only go back to my above explanation that due to their current stances they have a dearth of acceptable candidates to them.


In similar gaffe territory- a wild Boris has appeared-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1573209054

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9194476.html

He was caught on what looks like a candid camera, extolling the benefits of the EU's single market as the best to a group of Conservatives in Northern Ireland, and pointing out how his deal gives them access to that awesome trading block, as well as giving them access to any FTA's the rUK makes.

-This is not so bad in my view- While arguably it undermines his brexit credentials (which if the opposition parties use it, could give a boost to the Brexit Party vote), it is sort of true in some lights- single market access plus extra lee-way of FTA's is good thing.

What's bad is again, he's contradicting his own Government, his own Brexit Secretary and his own N.Ireland Secretary when he claims there will be no customs checks, no paperwork, nothing- which contradicts his own Government admitted there would have to be. I think there is an element of truth now when Boris's critics say that he does not understand his own trade deal, the alternative is he was stupid enough to think he can tell different people different things to get their votes- essentially lie. Which would come back to bite him on the arse quite badly.

The gaffes thus keep coming. 2017 is starting to look really well organized by all sides .

[Aexodus]

Recent polling by Yougov has the conservatives winning by a 106 seat majority https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-



Labour and the Tories have taken losses in all areas, with the Lib Dems, Brexit Party and Greens gaining seats. Labour have lost most of the North due to losing seats to the smaller parties, leaving Conservatives with the most votes in the Northwest and Yorkshire and Humber.

To be honest I'm not entirely sure why Labour are set to have lost so many more seats than the Conservatives since 2017, they have largely the same platform.

And would it be possible to add more Northern Ireland parties to the poll, thanks.

[Alwyn]

That's an interesting poll, Aexodus. Of course the situation might change, but it looks like the Conservatives are on course for a similar outcome to Labour's win in the 2005 election - in both 2005 and 2019, a decent majority for the winners with 35% of the vote. It's interesting that the 12% predicted Brexit Party voters would be represented by no-one in Parliament while a tripling of the Green percentage vote would make no difference to their number of MPs (even though it would bring their support close to the percentage of Lib Dem support in 2017 and they got 12 MPs). Will this election will lead to calls for electoral reform? Of course, the party which won an election under the current system would probably want to keep it! If a Johnson government firmly rejects calls for electoral reform and a Scottish independence referendum (which I imagine they would), would that make a Yes vote in a Scottish independence referendum more likely, in the late 2020s or the 30s?

You asked why Labour are predicted to lose so many seats. My guess is that it's a combination of several things. People who feel very strongly for or against Brexit will be put off by what seems like a lukewarm view by Labour's leader. The taint of Liberal Democrat support for the 2010 coalition (from the viewpoint of voters who are angry about austerity) seems to be wearing off, while the anti-semitism allegations about Jeremy Corbyn may cause many to switch to the Lib Dems or Greens. Boris Johnson, despite his history and his gaffes, seems to be a more effective campaigner than his predecessor.

As you said, it would be good to see some meaningful information on support for different parties in Northern Ireland!

[Elmetiacos]

Farage has panicked and told his candidates in Conservative seats they will not be standing. He's scared that, already having angered many of his supporters, if Boris Johnson didn't win a majority, he would take the blame for splitting the vote. Talking heads have assessed this as most damaging to the Liberal Democrats, where a split Leave vote would increase their chances of capturing Tory seats. So far, Brexit Party candidates are still going to be fielded in all the other seats. If there was ever any chance of the two parties making some kind of deal, it has all but disappeared: this is political oblivion for Farage and his remaining minions.

[caratacus]

UK election news LIVE: Huge boost for Boris Johnson as Nigel Farage stands down Brexit Party candidates
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4283571.html
Nigel Farage has announced the Brexit Party will not contest the 317 seats won by the Conservatives at the last general election.

In a huge boost for Boris Johnson, Mr Farage said he would be focusing the Brexit Party’s efforts on Labour-held seats in the December 12 poll. The Prime Minister welcomed the move, hailing Mr Farage on Twitter for his "recognition that another gridlocked hung Parliament is the greatest threat to getting Brexit done".

This move by Farage was really expected. In the most recent bi elections, both the Conservatives lost out to the Lib Dems because of a split Brexit vote. Johnson really couldn't enter any form of pact with the Brexit party because there are far too many Remain supporters amongst his MPs and the Tories need to win in remain supporting constituencies in the South East of England. Therefore the Brexit party needed to stand aside and let the Conservative shore up their existing vote to have any chance of Brexit happening.

Fresh into another week, and the vying of worst candidate continues between the two main parties. Labour easily topped it though, with Keith Vaz, whose dalliances with drugs and rent boys forced an honourable with drawl.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50369905

Meanwhile Labour's Jarrow Candidate looks set to follow him, with the local party very unhappy about why she is even being considered.

Jarrow Labour hopeful Kate Osborne sorry over 'May at gunpoint' post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-50366661
A Labour Party candidate has apologised for sharing an image of former Conservative prime minister Theresa May with a gun pointed at her head. Kate Osborne posted a parody image of a wincing Mrs May alongside a gun-holding Samuel L Jackson in the film Pulp Fiction, on social media in 2017. She has been chosen for the safe seat of Jarrow after the suspension of Stephen Hepburn.

Others contenders have beat her to it though.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Tory candidate stands down after racist and sexist Facebook posts emerge
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9196451.html

Labour candidate pulls out of election over 'Shylock' remarks
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...hylock-remarks
Gideon Bull, who was to stand for Labour in Clacton, denies intention to insult councillor

Wakefield Tory candidate Antony Calvert quits over Facebook comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50365354
A Conservative election candidate has stepped down over historic social media posts about a Labour MP and Colonel Gaddafi. Antony Calvert, who was standing to be MP for Wakefield, also made comments about food poverty, as reported by the Sunday Times.
The 41-year-old said the Facebook posts were more than 10 years old.Mr Calvert said his comments were "certainly not intended to cause any offence".

So when we see MPs sitting in the House of Commons texting on their mobile phones instead of concentrating on the debates, which is why they are there presumably. It is because they are busy trolling someone or making some stupid immature remark on social media? Little wonder the Country is where it is. You could say this is trial by social media, but standing as a member of parliament is an honourable role in public office. You cannot fulfil that role if you tweet language unconducive to that position. However, I think it reflects more on the political parties they represent in putting them in those positions, than their own shortcomings as candidates.

[TheLeft]

That moment when you realise that 'good old Nigel' has sold you down the river and trousered your money, all in exchange for a peerage...

It's almost as if a supposed political party that was setup as a limited company with no democratic processes was as shady as hell...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1194020457772658690

I'm sure that Farage went from Boris's deal being 'the worst deal in history' to meekly moving aside for the Tories was purely out of his sense of duty and nothing to do with him being promised a peerage at all.

[Cyclops]

It appears such an own goal with this indeed- they literally created controversy out of nothing- they're doing the same yesterday too with the Corbyn=Stalin and then refusing to say that being executed is worse than paying extra tax (The Andrew Neil Interview was amazing to watch).

On the edited video though- i suspect it might have been an attempt at being very clever (and still might have been)they've employed Sean Topham and Ben Guerin from Australia who ran an election strategy for the Aus libds called 'Boomer memes'- essentially they take controversial/false data that has a core message that essentially is 'trash' and put it up on social media. The idea is (and it worked in Australia) that it's so stupid/controversial that opponents share it to mock it, and due to the discussion/attention- even mostly negative it manipulates twitter, Facebook and google algorithms to appear frequently. Through this re-sharing and 'going viral' few people then actually check the actual source to see the apology/correction/to see if its edited/dumb.

The message then may 'resonate' with some voters, simply through exposure and get the basic/underling point across regardless of how it was delivered. Again worked really well in Australia- however this edit, i think has been so poorly handled i just can't see the political capital being worth the sleaze accusations their now heaped with. Saying that though- i've still seen the edited video shared online with the commentators genuinely believing it and laughing at Starmer for having no answers- when in fact he did respond.

@All- but generally aye, i think i can't add much that ya'll haven't said- Currently it's looking very much like a repeat of 2017 for the Tories, something i thought would be unimaginable. Just an hour ago there was this- https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1573156450

Another Tory candidate found to have made really stupid remarks about rape that forced Boris to distance himself. A fair few parties seem to be having trouble with their candidate vetting process (Its like both big parties have given up on retaining any presence in Scotland- they're all over the place there)- the difference being so far is that the Conservatives are still letting there guys stand.

Does anyone know by the way the status of the Conservative activist base? In 2017 aftermath the reports were essentially unless something radical was done (Which it wasn't), they would suffer huge manpower shortages due to a lack of activists and poor organization. I can't find any info on if this is fixed or not, but it could be decisive. I know its not the same issue directly, but it might also be why the Conservatives are 'faking' their rallies. Boris's launch campaign when a picture of the room was actually taken, held around 50 odd people, i'm guessing they are either trying to run a very tightly controlled public appearance campaign for him (hence no real questions and select audiences that use clever camera work to hide the spareness- this would see this election as a May 2.0 indeed), or they just can't spare the people.

I wouldn't give too much credit to "Boomer memes" for the result in Australia, its not in the top three elements. Its nice for these boys the be getting a paycheck though, bu they do tend to lower the tone.

The most important detail was a mining "billionaire" spending more than the two major parties combined on advertising to start a "third party" that preferenced the conservative side, and ran a completely false campaign. Essentially Clive Palmer more than tripled the conservative advertising budget. The payback has been nice treatment by the current government in his legal battles with Chinese and other investors.

The second issue was the choice of "Boring Bill" Shorten, a typical shonky Union boss as leader. He was meant to be a bland choice offering few points of attack, but he's actually knifed two Labour PMs so that policy was a bust, and was also incongruent with the policy pitch, which brings us to the third point.

The third element was the choice of policy profile: Labor gambled on a big statement with lots of details which opened them up to heaps of criticism, the Conservatives went small and just said "we're doing a great job and we will keep doing that". Between Labor blunders and Palmer's enormous intervention the Liberals snuck in.

EDIT: @Cyclops - How Labour tackles Corbyn will be interesting, last time around Corbyn appeared in places where he could seize the young vote or had resonance (hence the rise in Labour vote share in urban areas and Uni towns), whereas many other Labour MP's essentially at the doorstop pretended he did not exist- they removed him from their local constituency leaflets and made a big show of 'vote for me, forget him'.

This accidentally was actually quite a good strategy. I'm not sure whether they'll be able to get away with it again though, or indeed with Corbyn's control of the party being now far more firmly established, if he'll let them do a decentralized campaign.

Thx for the details. Is the UK so regionally divided that no one leader can unify enough electorates?