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Thread: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    Yes because Republicans are notorious for answering polls based on facts rather than party politics and feeeeeelings. Let's look at some examples, shall we?

    A long list of proof
    Man, I wish I could rep you again. That was an awesome find, awesome! It clearly and undeniably points out to what extend Trump's cult has permeated the Republican base. I was aware of this to a degree, but not to that extend. Even if those polls are just the "worst" and there are others that present moderate changes in Republican base, these are important issues.

    Still... Republicans being "meh" on gun control before Obama? Are you sure about that?

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Another poll from Frox News from January puts Sanders with a 6 point lead over Trump. So, no, Sanders continuously polled over Trump with more than an margin of error percentage.
    Interesting... Still Trump is closing the gap.
    Last edited by alhoon; February 02, 2020 at 12:30 PM.
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  2. #62
    Akar's Avatar I am not a clever man
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    I think it's fairly obvious that Republicans, for better or worse, are more willing/quicker to adapt their beliefs to those of whatever their "team" or party is currently advocating for.
    Quote Originally Posted by Barber & Pope
    "Using a research design that employs both "conservative and "liberal" Trump cues we find that the low-knowledge respondents, strong Republicans, Trump-approving respondents, and self-described "conservatives" are the most likely to behave like party loyalists and simply accept the Trump cue - in either direction"
    So essentially the deciding factors for whether or not you put party over ideology is if you are a Republican, a Conservative, or simply uninformed (this could go for either Democrats or Republicans).

    Quote Originally Posted by Barber & Pope
    "These results suggest that there are a large number of party loyalists in the United States, that their claims to being a self-defined “conservative” are suspect, and that group loyalty is the much more profound motivator of opinion than are any ideological principles."
    In one of the passages following your excerpt from the Barber & Pope paper

    Quote Originally Posted by Barber & Pope
    "Self-described ideological conservatives were very quick to respond to the treatment of liberal Trump cues, moving an average of twelve points in a liberal direction across the issues. The results for more moderate and liberal Republicans were negligible."
    It seems that whether or not you define yourself as a "Conservative" or as a "Republican" is the deciding factor of whether or not you are more likely to be susceptible to partisan politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barber & Pope
    "It is also worth noting that we find very little evidence of “negative partisanship” in these results (Abramowitz and Webster, 2016). It does not appear to be the case that Democrats react against Trump by simply taking the opposite stance."
    It's hard to say whether or not Democrats would be as susceptible to the influence of a controversial demagogue but it's easy to say if Republicans would be, because it's happening right now and we can see how susceptible they are. The point of the article is not to tear down either side, it's point is to tear down partisanship. If it just so happens that Conservatives are the primary partisans these days then perhaps that's why the article seems to attack them so strongly.

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Man, I wish I could rep you again. That was an awesome find, awesome! It clearly and undeniably points out to what extend Trump's cult has permeated the Republican base. I was aware of this to a degree, but not to that extend. Even if those polls are just the "worst" and there are others that present moderate changes in Republican base, these are important issues.

    Still... Republicans being "meh" on gun control before Obama? Are you sure about that?



    Interesting... Still Trump is closing the gap.
    When I say that they were "meh on gun control" what I mean is that if you were to describe the aspects of gun control to the majority of people, they would support it regardless of political affiliation. As soon as you start calling things "gun control" and you have idiots like Beto O'Rourke saying nonsense like "Yes, I'm coming for your guns" people get scared, and rightfully so. There's a reason that the right to bear arms is the second amendment and I wouldn't stand to see any president, Democrat or Republican, infringe on my constitutional rights. People forget that before Obama was elected we successfully banned fully automatic weapons and enacted the Brady bill, requiring anyone purchasing a firearm from a federally licensed firearm retailer to submit for a background check through the NICS. We've already been on the slow and steady road to defining how we want to regulate weapons in the future, and the vast majority of people are okay with the essential concepts of gun regulation once it's explained to them properly. i.e, not "they're takin' ma' gunnnnnnns"
    Last edited by alhoon; February 09, 2020 at 04:19 AM. Reason: double post

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  3. #63

    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Interesting... Still Trump is closing the gap.
    Emerson poll that showed Trump being +2% over Sanders in September shows Sanders being +2% over Trump in January.
    CNN poll that showed Sanders being +4% over Trump in December shows Sanders being +7% over Trump in January.

    Yeah, interesting...
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  4. #64
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    It's hard to say whether or not Democrats would be as susceptible to the influence of a controversial demagogue but it's easy to say if Republicans would be, because it's happening right now and we can see how susceptible they are. The point of the article is not to tear down either side, it's point is to tear down partisanship. If it just so happens that Conservatives are the primary partisans these days then perhaps that's why the article seems to attack them so strongly.
    There is no basis for arguing (according to the B&P study) that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to "adapt their beliefs" to their party or party leader. The study does not provide the necessary comparison between Democratic and Republican respondents to make such a claim. What it found was that liberal/moderate minded Republicans were less likely to be Trump loyalists than self-proclaimed conservatives or strong Republicans (not a wholly unexpected outcome) and that political partisanship was a significant factor in understanding Republican voter behavior. What the authors argued was that Trump's supposedly unique flexibility on policy positions helped to "disentangle" the cross over between ideological commitment and party loyalty to an extent which enabled them to make this judgement.

    However, and as I highlighted before, the study also expected similar results had they tested Democrats under similar circumstances. Considering that Trump's approval rating among Republicans mirrors Obama's rating among Democrats (~80-90%) I see no reason to imagine that Democrats would not have responded in a comparable fashion had the study been directed at Democrats during the Obama era.

    To extend the excerpt which you cited:

    Quote Originally Posted by B&P
    It is also worth noting that we find very little evidence of “negative partisanship” in these results (Abramowitz and Webster, 2016). It does not appear to be the case that Democrats react against Trump by simply taking the opposite stance. In some sense this is support for the ideathat Democrats are more likely to be ideologues, although that runs counter to existing findings inthe literature (Grossmann and Hopkins, 2016). Alternatively, it seems more likely that Democratsmay not respond to the Trump cue but would perhaps respond to other cues, perhaps especially cues from Democratic leaders.
    Last edited by Cope; February 02, 2020 at 02:32 PM.

  5. #65
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Another poll I just saw that indicates that Trump has significantly closed the gap with most democrats. https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo...171601673.html
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Well yeah you can make anyone look good when you totally disregard how numbers work.

    "Yet when the playing field was narrowed to the 10 states that were closest in the 2016 presidential election and that will likely decide 2020 — Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, North Carolina and Arizona — Sanders’s lead over Trump was slashed in half (48 percent to 45 percent)."
    "we took the 10 states where Trump would perform best, and if we only count those, then it looks like Trump is not going to lose by as much"

    Try an unbiased poll, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

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  7. #67
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    Well yeah you can make anyone look good when you totally disregard how numbers work.



    "we took the 10 states where Trump would perform best, and if we only count those, then it looks like Trump is not going to lose by as much"

    Try an unbiased poll, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/
    Those polls are actually more important than an "unbiased" national poll.

    Those aren't the states where Trump does the best, they are the battleground states where the election will be won.

    Sanders is still looking pretty good in those states though, I'd say he's got a decent shot.
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  8. #68
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Sure, that's all well and good and I won't disagree. BUT, I do have an issue when you try to suggest his polling numbers in those states as reflective of the national stage. It seems disingenuous to say "Biden shows edge against Bernie with Trump". I mean, just read the first sentence of the article and you clearly can see they're already against Bernie.

    Is Bernie Sanders “electable”? It’s a question that’s been troubling many Democrats, who fear that despite his strong showings in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the self-described democratic socialist from Vermont would lose to President Trump in November.

    No one outside of the DNC and moderate democrats who already don't support Bernie are saying stupid stuff like that. Really? You're worried that despite Bernie making history by winning the popular vote in the first 3 states that someone he's still going to lose to Trump in November? Bernie has been polling to beat Trump since the primaries of the 2016 election and throughout the entirety of this election. It's obvious once you read the article that they're not trying to make a nuanced point about how the battleground states will be an important and tough fight for Bernie. They're trying to make it seem like he has no chance at all in the general election against Trump.

    Alhoon's statement that this poll somehow "indicates that Trump has significantly closed the gap with most democrats" is completely untrue and intentionally misleading by Yahoo.

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  9. #69
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...agement-138570

    Well... I am not sure that turning the opinion of the Majority of Americans to approve Trump's coronavirus management should count as a success for Trump since it's mostly a failure of Pelosi, but I guess "Doing less bad than the other side" is a kind of success.
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  10. #70

    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...agement-138570

    Well... I am not sure that turning the opinion of the Majority of Americans to approve Trump's coronavirus management should count as a success for Trump since it's mostly a failure of Pelosi, but I guess "Doing less bad than the other side" is a kind of success.
    There is no other side in this. There is only the Trump administration. 55% approval of Trump's handling of the corona virus crisis is not a success story.
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  11. #71
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    There is no other side in this. There is only the Trump administration. 55% approval of Trump's handling of the corona virus crisis is not a success story.
    It should be 35% approval, and that's only because Trump's fanatics are ~35%.
    The success here is that 55% approve and Trump's ratings are growing while his management of the crisis was... subpar to say the least (catastrophic would be better).

    But... he managed to turn it around somehow. I don't understand how it is possible to turn such mismanagement to "Approval" but he did. So... it kinda is a success for him, although I think that's a failure of the opposition to bring to light how much more Trump could have done or how earlier.
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  12. #72

    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    It should be 35% approval, and that's only because Trump's fanatics are ~35%.
    The success here is that 55% approve and Trump's ratings are growing while his management of the crisis was... subpar to say the least (catastrophic would be better).

    But... he managed to turn it around somehow. I don't understand how it is possible to turn such mismanagement to "Approval" but he did. So... it kinda is a success for him, although I think that's a failure of the opposition to bring to light how much more Trump could have done or how earlier.
    No, 55% approval does not show success. He'd need to get over 70% to be successful with respect to a crisis like this. People are susceptible to siding with the authorities in times of crisis like this one. No, Trump's rating are not growing either.
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  13. #73
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    No, 55% approval does not show success. He'd need to get over 70% to be successful with respect to a crisis like this. People are susceptible to siding with the authorities in times of crisis like this one.
    55% is better, much better than the 38%-43% he had a few days ago. It bogs my mind that suddenly his approval of the crisis jumped by 15% or so. Also, while indeed people are susceptible to sliding with authorities in times of crisis... it doesn't change the fact that he is seen as successful by over half the population.
    The 70% measure is arbitrary; yes, a really successful reaction would have got 70-75%. That doesn't mean that Trump's reaction is not mindbogglingly perceived as successful by more than half the population. That in itself, is a success. He managed to get a spin on this. Perhaps it was not that hard (all he had to do was sign a bill for the voters to get money) but it happened and it is a successful spin.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    No, Trump's rating are not growing either.
    Yes they are. Here's an aggregate, not a single poll.
    You can see there's an uptick to Trump's popularity since March 13, that goes past March 13.
    Will it hold? We will see. However, Trump is more popular now that he was a week ago.
    Last edited by alhoon; March 22, 2020 at 06:11 AM.
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  14. #74

    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    55% is better, much better than the 38%-43% he had a few days ago. It bogs my mind that suddenly his approval of the crisis jumped by 15% or so. Also, while indeed people are susceptible to sliding with authorities in times of crisis... it doesn't change the fact that he is seen as successful by over half the population.
    The 70% measure is arbitrary; yes, a really successful reaction would have got 70-75%. That doesn't mean that Trump's reaction is not mindbogglingly perceived as successful by more than half the population. That in itself, is a success. He managed to get a spin on this. Perhaps it was not that hard (all he had to do was sign a bill for the voters to get money) but it happened and it is a successful spin.

    Yes they are. Here's an aggregate, not a single poll.
    You can see there's an uptick to Trump's popularity since March 13, that goes past March 13.
    Will it hold? We will see. However, Trump is more popular now that he was a week ago.
    Sigh... 55% is of approval for his handling of corona virus crisis. It's not his overall approval. Hence, its pointless to compare it to his overall approval ratings. There is no 15% jump. You're just failing at analyzing simple statistics. Common sense would dictate that a successful handling of a crisis would require vast majority support which wouldn't even be 70% but 75%. 55% is no success. Even by your faulty analysis, after 9/11, Bush received an approval rating of over 80% from around 50%.

    Why is aggregate numbers better in this case? Why would I take into account every little poll, not knowing how reliable they are? Even so, you're still talking about gains within the margin of error.
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  15. #75
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Sigh... 55% is of approval for his handling of corona virus crisis. It's not his overall approval. Hence, its pointless to compare it to his overall approval ratings. There is no 15% jump. You're just failing at analyzing simple statistics. Common sense would dictate that a successful handling of a crisis would require vast majority support which wouldn't even be 70% but 75%. 55% is no success. Even by your faulty analysis, after 9/11, Bush received an approval rating of over 80% from around 50%.

    ?!?!?
    I said, 55% see his handling of the Coronavirus successful and that's a mindblogging jump. A few weeks ago, 38% approved of his handling of the Coronavirus. His generic job performance approval ratings were ~42%-43% back then, but only 38% approved of his handling of the virus.
    Fast forward to a few days ago and we're at 55% approval for Trump's handling of the virus and his generic approval ratings at 43%-44% i.e. 1% higher than a week ago.

    55% approving his handling of Coronavirus as I have said is much better than 38% approving his crisis-management. Sure, not as good as it would have been if he did a good management but still much better than 38% that was just a few days ago.

    All these are quite clear in my posts I would think...

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...agement-138570 [<=== article about how the majority asked suddenly approves of Trump's handling of the Coronavirus]

    Well... I am not sure that turning the opinion of the Majority of Americans to approve Trump's coronavirus management ...

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Why is aggregate numbers better in this case? Why would I take into account every little poll, not knowing how reliable they are? Even so, you're still talking about gains within the margin of error.
    Because aggregate numbers decrease the margin of error (divided by square root of observations).
    Also you posted a poll from before the mindboggling spin that saw 55% of the public suddenly approve Trump's handling of the Coronavirus compared to the 38% that approved just a few days ago (and 43% just a week before).
    Further more, that research shows the main polls not every tiny poll and it also adjusts for reliability of such polls. They do good enough work there if you check the methodology.

    If you check the polls below the graph, you would see that Trump's ratings were dropping March 6-13, but after March 13 (your poll is from March 12) they started going up again.
    Last edited by alhoon; March 22, 2020 at 08:40 AM.
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  16. #76
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

    Trump's nearly at the top ratings of his career and still the media downplay his surge focusing on his persistent unpopularity. But he was less popular when he won the election in 2016 and the democratic establishment is again becoming complacent and underestimates him, or better, overestimates a lot (not all) of the American voters. Apologies for taking that to the voters, but regardless of media attention etc etc it's at least partially their fault that they have Trump now.

    Anyway, that aside, it's a success for Trump to be surging while his handling of a catastrophic infestation has been subpar and it is under-reported by the media. Reading many if not most of the headlines you would not even come close to guess that Trump is more popular than ever.
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  17. #77

    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

    Trump's nearly at the top ratings of his career and still the media downplay his surge focusing on his persistent unpopularity. But he was less popular when he won the election in 2016 and the democratic establishment is again becoming complacent and underestimates him, or better, overestimates a lot (not all) of the American voters. Apologies for taking that to the voters, but regardless of media attention etc etc it's at least partially their fault that they have Trump now.

    Anyway, that aside, it's a success for Trump to be surging while his handling of a catastrophic infestation has been subpar and it is under-reported by the media. Reading many if not most of the headlines you would not even come close to guess that Trump is more popular than ever.
    Your own source shows him starting on Day 4 at 45.5% approval, and Day 1161 at 44.6%. I would recommend checking a dictionary for what a surge is as well.
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  18. #78
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Hence I said "nearly at the top ratings of his career". He hasn't seen those numbers for years. PS. His rating is at 44.8% now, so over the 44.6%.
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  19. #79

    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Hence I said "nearly at the top ratings of his career". He hasn't seen those numbers for years. PS. His rating is at 44.8% now, so over the 44.6%.
    "But he was less popular when he won the election in 2016" is also what you said. Your link doesn't show him at 44.8%.
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  20. #80
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    Default Re: The successes of President Donald Trump and their under-reporting by the media (please, no flaming)

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    "But he was less popular when he won the election in 2016" is also what you said.
    Yeap, back in November 2016 his approval ratings with the not-my-president etc was abysmal. 39-40% or something, perhaps lower. I don't recall the numbers. They are somewhere in the threads of 2016 when Trump won and the other "Hillary would win a landslide" posters disappeared letting me face the conservatives laughing at our predictions. The reason we made those predictions were because Trump was so unpopular.

    My link today doesn't show it at 44.8% but 44.7%. They probably added an extra poll or something. My point that he's at the near highest of his career still stands whether it is 44.8% or 44.5%. The issue here is that Trump soars after mishandling a very serious crisis, not small stuff like extended draughts and fires in California, or petty wars in the middle east that are in their 20th year or something etc.
    Last edited by alhoon; March 26, 2020 at 11:46 AM.
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