Saudi Arabia: Drone attack against world's largest crude oil refinery
In 14 September, two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were subject to a drone attack, which temporarily put them out of action. The refineries in Khurais and Abqaiq are extremely large, which means that the oil production of the Kingdom dropped by more than 50%. As a result, oil prices essentially experienced their sharpest increase since the times of Saddam's occupation of Kuwait, while the damage, despite the rosy promises of Saudi officials, is not expected to get repaired very quickly. The details of the affair are still unclear, as the official investigation has not yet been published, with Saudi and American sources even claiming that, apart from the drones, Cruise missiles were also employed in the bombing.
The Houthis, the Yemeni organisation that controls the north-western portion of the country, which is currently blockaded and invaded by a Saudi-led coalition immediately assumed the responsibility, but their statement has been rejected by the United States, which considers the Iranian Republic to have orchestrated the operation. However, no proof confirming these accusations has been presented so far, while Tehran has unambiguously denied them. Middle East Eye even suggested, based on anonymous sources, that the attack was launched by Shiite militias from Iraq, but their implications have been doubted by both Baghdad and Washington. Of course, Donald Trump tweeted that he's ready to retaliate violently against the presumed culprit, only waiting for the royal authorities of Saudi Arabia to verify his suspicions.
In my opinion, in what concerns the mysterious identity of the perpetrator, neither Iran nor America/Saudi Arabia are reliable, given that the former would be interested in disassociating herself from a potential casus belli, while, for the latter, blaming their geopolitical adversary, is a convenient tool for undermining the international reputation of Iran and painting it as an unprovoked aggressor. On the contrary, the prestige of the Houthis would be reinforced, thanks to the surprising humiliation they inflicted on the much wealthier and more powerful Riyadh. In what concerns the "geographical" argument about the distance between the targeted refineries, situated near the Persian Gulf and Qatar, and Houthi-controlled Yemen, the Houthis have actually managed to attack oil fields and pipelines in eastern and central Saudi Arabia several times already, but the precision of the strikes is less easily explained. Unless the Houthis have been equipped by Iran with technologically more advanced weaponry. There is an interesting analysis over the subject I discovered in the Internet.
So, what do you think? Who are the perpetrators and the mastermind behind the attack and which would be its consequences for the region? Taking into account the American President's bellicose stance towards Iran, is the prospect of a dramatic escalation likely or not?