Saudi Arabia: Drone attack against world's largest crude oil refinery

[Abdülmecid I]

In 14 September, two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were subject to a drone attack, which temporarily put them out of action. The refineries in Khurais and Abqaiq are extremely large, which means that the oil production of the Kingdom dropped by more than 50%. As a result, oil prices essentially experienced their sharpest increase since the times of Saddam's occupation of Kuwait, while the damage, despite the rosy promises of Saudi officials, is not expected to get repaired very quickly. The details of the affair are still unclear, as the official investigation has not yet been published, with Saudi and American sources even claiming that, apart from the drones, Cruise missiles were also employed in the bombing.



The Houthis, the Yemeni organisation that controls the north-western portion of the country, which is currently blockaded and invaded by a Saudi-led coalition immediately assumed the responsibility, but their statement has been rejected by the United States, which considers the Iranian Republic to have orchestrated the operation. However, no proof confirming these accusations has been presented so far, while Tehran has unambiguously denied them. Middle East Eye even suggested, based on anonymous sources, that the attack was launched by Shiite militias from Iraq, but their implications have been doubted by both Baghdad and Washington. Of course, Donald Trump tweeted that he's ready to retaliate violently against the presumed culprit, only waiting for the royal authorities of Saudi Arabia to verify his suspicions.



In my opinion, in what concerns the mysterious identity of the perpetrator, neither Iran nor America/Saudi Arabia are reliable, given that the former would be interested in disassociating herself from a potential casus belli, while, for the latter, blaming their geopolitical adversary, is a convenient tool for undermining the international reputation of Iran and painting it as an unprovoked aggressor. On the contrary, the prestige of the Houthis would be reinforced, thanks to the surprising humiliation they inflicted on the much wealthier and more powerful Riyadh. In what concerns the "geographical" argument about the distance between the targeted refineries, situated near the Persian Gulf and Qatar, and Houthi-controlled Yemen, the Houthis have actually managed to attack oil fields and pipelines in eastern and central Saudi Arabia several times already, but the precision of the strikes is less easily explained. Unless the Houthis have been equipped by Iran with technologically more advanced weaponry. There is an interesting analysis over the subject I discovered in the Internet.

So, what do you think? Who are the perpetrators and the mastermind behind the attack and which would be its consequences for the region? Taking into account the American President's bellicose stance towards Iran, is the prospect of a dramatic escalation likely or not?

[PointOfViewGun]

Based on the aerial images I've seen so far the attack was extremely precise. Houthis are definitely not capable enough to do this. Iran? Maybe. Still impressive for them. Who else could it be?

[Vanoi]

I still think it was just the Houthis using Iranian weapons and technology probably backed up with some kind of Iranian support.

Its an escalation for sure though. And this kind of incident is bound to start pissing off Iran's own allies like Russia who condemned the attack and China who does import a lot of oil from the Saudis themselves.

[Daruwind]

This looks really like highly precise strike. It seems out of Houthis capabilities at the time. Unless somebody sold them such equipment but still training,operating it, everything pointing to Iran...Still if it was USA/Saudi themselves, they would opt out to do just minor damage. They definitely don´t want prizes skyrocket due to Russia, Venezuela..actually USA wants too keep prizes down to keep Saudis in check.

Plus given latest playing with tankers from all sides, this could be move from Iran to show they are capable to hit vulnerable spot...So real question is, who is making troubles in area lately? Ships,missiles....Iran

[Alastor]

Whoever it was, giving those deplorable Saudis a bloody nose is I believe a good opportunity as any for some well-deserved schadenfreude.

[RandomPerson2000]

Tad bit surprised that the attack was able to happen to this extent without a good few drones and missiles being shot down. One would think that the air defences for one of, if not the most economically important region/s for Saudi Arabia would be quite strong. If's that the case, well it makes the attack even more of a massive humiliation for the Saudis.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I'm sure, it are the Houthi with iranian technical support.

And do you know what? They have every right to hit Saudi Arabia, where it hurts economical.

After 10000's Jemenites were killed by bombs of the saudiarabian millitary coalition there and by famine as consequence of the blockade of jemenitic ports by Saudi-Arabia.

And for the records: no attack on the civilian population instead attack on a militaric/economic target.

[B. W.]

There doesn't appear to be any stray strikes; i.e.: very precise.

On reflection, I remember back in the early 70s when OPEC led by the Saudis screwed the US and people were waiting in lines to buy gas. At the same time the Saudis were spending billions funding extremist groups around the world which are much responsible for the current instability in the middle east. It seems the Saudis are finally reaping the benefits of their largess.

Luckily for the US Trump came along and made the US economy independent of any middle east oil shortages.

[Ἀπολλόδοτος Α΄ ὁ Σωτήρ]

Don't know who did it, don't even care... Pompeo claims, without evidence as usual, that Iran did it. Of course if the Iranians did it then they're having some ethereal strategy where a much weaker party (Iran) goads an overwhelmingly stronger party (US) into war and then... I don't know how but wins.

a massive humiliation for the Saudis.

Yes, yes it is...

well-deserved schadenfreude.

That is indeed how I feel about it.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

The distance is what seems most suspicious to me, the nearest Houthi controlled territory to one of those refineries is just over 1,000km away, and it's just some empty desert so it was unlikely to have come from there. I just don't see how they could fly a drone such a massive distance with no issues. Iran is much closer.

[Common Soldier]

The distance is what seems most suspicious to me, the nearest Houthi controlled territory to one of those refineries is just over 1,000km away, and it's just some empty desert so it was unlikely to have come from there. I just don't see how they could fly a drone such a massive distance with no issues. Iran is much closer.

If it was a drone attack, I am skeptical that the Yemen rebels would have the capability on their own to launch the attack, and Iran is the most likely candidate who has the technology andnexpertise to launch a drone attack.

Note, if the space is mostly empty desert to the nearest Houthi territory, they might have traveled a long way to launch a special attack, and they might not have been detected. However, I believe some drones have a long range, as long as a 1000 km.


The Houthi could have launched the attack, but if so, they did so with Iranian aid.

[Love Mountain]

If it was a drone attack, I am skeptical that the Yemen rebels would have the capability on their own to launch the attack, and Iran is the most likely candidate who has the technology andnexpertise to launch a drone attack.

Note, if the space is mostly empty desert to the nearest Houthi territory, they might have traveled a long way to launch a special attack, and they might not have been detected. However, I believe some drones have a long range, as long as a 1000 km.


The Houthi could have launched the attack, but if so, they did so with Iranian aid.

The distance is what seems most suspicious to me, the nearest Houthi controlled territory to one of those refineries is just over 1,000km away, and it's just some empty desert so it was unlikely to have come from there. I just don't see how they could fly a drone such a massive distance with no issues. Iran is much closer.

Distance of this magnitude is irrelevant if this attack was as sophisticated and well-planned as KSA and USA claim. There's not a lot one can do if the enemy is determined and well-organized. It'd be akin to contemplating that Moroccans were behind 9/11 since they are the closest muslim country. So, I wouldn't speculate on the identity of the attackers without concrete information. I also don't trust a single word coming out of Pompeo's or Trump's mouth. Until I see proof, or something coming out of the pentagon, I'm skeptical of any unsubstantiated claims of who's behind this.

Bil Salman needs to find a way out of this regional fiasco. The only thing the war has done, is dig the hole 50 feet deeper. Now that both UAE and KSA are committed to the conflict, they cannot credibly withdraw without either admitting defeat or framing a victory of some sort.

[Heathen Hammer]

I'm sure, it are the Houthi with iranian technical support.

And do you know what? They have every right to hit Saudi Arabia, where it hurts economical.

After 10000's Jemenites were killed by bombs of the saudiarabian millitary coalition there and by famine as consequence of the blockade of jemenitic ports by Saudi-Arabia.

And for the records: no attack on the civilian population instead attack on a militaric/economic target.

Pretty much this. I don't really see any reason to condemn a perfectly legitimate attack on economic/military facilities of a brutal theocratic dictatorship of Saudi Arabia that murdered tens of thousands of civilians and caused a famine in Yemen.
Heck, I wouldn't even be surprised if Saudi regime decided to pull a false flag to pull US into a military confrontation with Iran. But in any case, Saudi regime got humiliated, which is a good thing, and hopefully it will weaken and eventually collapse.

[sumskilz]

Heck, I wouldn't even be surprised if Saudi regime decided to pull a false flag to pull US into a military confrontation with Iran.

I'm skeptical that the Saudi military is competent enough to pull off an attack with that degree of precision against their own facilities.

[95thrifleman]

How desperate is Trump to start a war for a second term?

[Morifea]

@Heathen Hammer & Carmen Sylva: totally correct. The best target any attacker on the Saudis could get.

@sumskilz: True words.

@topic: What kind of Cruise Missiles has Israel? Wouldn`t Bibi like some action between Saudis and Iran? (tinfoilhat-modus activated)

[95thrifleman]

Kill a bunch of civilians: Nobody cares

Target a legitimate military/economic target: Everyone loses their .

[Common Soldier]

Based on the aerial images I've seen so far the attack was extremely precise. Houthis are definitely not capable enough to do this. Iran? Maybe. Still impressive for them. Who else could it be?

Iranians could have gotten help from others, like the Chinese, to obtain the expertise, but don't count them out. The Iranians have done some pretty impressive things.

I seem to recall reading how the Iranians captured a US drone. Even if the Iranians couldn't reverse engineer it themselves, I am sure they could have gotten help from the Chinese inexchange for turning over the drone to them. The Iranian are the most likely candidate to pull it odf the drone attack, and even if they did not personally conduct the attack. It was pulled off with their help. Iranian technicians might have helped the Houthi to actually conduct the attack. Most of the so.called 'impdoved explosive devices" in Iraq were nothing of the kind, they were weapons built with the aid of Iranian experts. This method fits in well with Iran's method of using surrogates to perform their attacks for them. Next to the US, the Sunni Saudi's are the Shiite Iranians main opponents.

[Alastor]

@95thrifleman
You see killing a bunch of civvies in the middle of who-cares-where has no direct impact on you. Increased oil prices on the other hand do.

But to jump on the conspiracy theory bandwagon, how about the Texan oil barons? They definitely stand to gain from increased oil demand. And they do have a reckless buffoon for a president, desperate for a second term. I would imagine the US would have the "know-how" to execute such an attack. No?

[95thrifleman]

Iranians could have gotten help from others, like the Chinese, to obtain the expertise, but don't count them out. The Iranians have done some pretty impressive things.

I seem to recall reading how the Iranians captured a US drone. Even if the Iranians couldn't reverse engineer it themselves, I am sure they could have gotten help from the Chinese inexchange for turning over the drone to them. The Iranian are the most likely candidate to pull it odf the drone attack, and even if they did not personally conduct the attack. It was pulled off with their help. Iranian technicians might have helped the Houthi to actually conduct the attack. Most of the so.called 'impdoved explosive devices" in Iraq were nothing of the kind, they were weapons built with the aid of Iranian experts. This method fits in well with Iran's method of using surrogates to perform their attacks for them. Next to the US, the Sunni Saudi's are the Shiite Iranians main opponents.

No different to the support America and other powers give their various proxies.

The tech we are talking about isn't all that special, gps-based, pinpoint tech goes back to the 90's. There is a certain arrogance that only the west has the shiny tech toys, the number of nations that could of supplied the tech required, assuming the Iranians don't have the capability independently, is quite broad.