View Poll Results: In the broadest of terms, which of the following most closely describes your geopolitical expectations for the post-US world order?

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45. You may not vote on this poll
  • A truly multipolar reorientation of geopolitics with few or no globally dominant “great powers.”

    10 22.22%
  • A division of the world into “spheres of influence” dominated by authoritarian powers (China, Russia, Iran, for example)

    11 24.44%
  • The US will remain globally dominant thanks to King Dollar and its sheer size, even if politically or militarily weaker relative to its turn of the century peak.

    14 31.11%
  • The EU will pull itself together, emerge from the US’ shadow, neutralize Russian interests on its doorstep, and Europe will once again carry the torch of the liberal/western world order.

    3 6.67%
  • Other (please explain)

    7 15.56%
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Thread: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

  1. #61
    Akar's Avatar I am not a clever man
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order






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  2. #62

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post




    First picture is 2014, Obama. (You, no doubt, vociferously spoke up at the time...).
    Second is 2018, Trump.
    Not sure on the third.

  3. #63
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    So if Obama started them (which he did, but didn't utilize them to the extent the Trump Admin has. Read up on catch and release) then why hasn't Trump shut them down? Is it maybe because he actually completely supports the idea?

    I have always been against detaining immigrants, legal or illegal, upon entry. These are people who have gone through the LEGAL means to enter the country and seek asylum and they are being detained. Even illegally entering the country is a misdemeanor on par with unpaid parking tickets.

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  4. #64

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    I have always been against detaining immigrants, legal or illegal, upon entry.
    Will you provide a link to you speaking up against the practice when it was Obama?

  5. #65

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    People being detained for breaking laws that were established long before Trump ran for president is sure morally equivalent to Obama making slave-trade possible in Libya by helping theocratic terrorists take it over.

  6. #66
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Will you provide a link to you speaking up against the practice when it was Obama?
    Do you really expect me to source anopinion I had 4+ years ago? Can you provide sources of you defending the practice when it was Obama?

    No?

    Then you see how ridiculous of a demand that is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    People being detained for breaking laws that were established long before Trump ran for president is sure morally equivalent to Obama making slave-trade possible in Libya by helping theocratic terrorists take it over.
    It is the equivalent of jailing someone for not paying a parking ticket.

    Also, once against I enjoy your whataboutism.

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  7. #67

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    I don't think term "Whataboutism" means what you think it means. Also illegally crossing the border is a far more serious crime then not paying a parking ticket.

  8. #68
    Akar's Avatar I am not a clever man
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    You sure about that?

    Quote Originally Posted by 8 U.S. Code Section 1325. Improper entry by alien.

    (b) Improper time or place; civil penalties: Any alien who is apprehended while entering (or attempting to enter) the United States at a time or place other than as designated by immigration officers shall be subject to a civil penalty of—

    (1) at least $50 and not more than $250 for each such entry (or attempted entry)



    Literally less than a parking ticket.

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  9. #69

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Not during the bustling cartel activity. Opening borders is something that would greatly benefit... organized crime, especially human traffickers.

  10. #70

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    Do you really expect me to source anopinion I had 4+ years ago? Can you provide sources of you defending the practice when it was Obama?

    No?

    Then you see how ridiculous of a demand that is.
    No. You are the one making the claim. I rather suspect that when Obama was doing it, you were either ignorant of it (hence why you post Obama era pics and claim it was Trump) or simply did not care, as long as it was done by someone you did not oppose.

  11. #71
    Akar's Avatar I am not a clever man
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    It's not a ridiculous claim to make nor is it expected of people to provide sources for opinions they held in the past. I understand that it might be hard for you to understand people with ideological consistencies because your side flip flops so often you can't keep it straight.

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  12. #72

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    It's not a ridiculous claim to make nor is it expected of people to provide sources for opinions they held in the past. I understand that it might be hard for you to understand people with ideological consistencies because your side flip flops so often you can't keep it straight.
    So you cant or wont provide a source, and I have no reason to believe you...
    And:
    My side? You'd have to show me 'flip-flopping so often' for your assertion to have any relevance.

  13. #73

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Spheres of influence I've been thinking since Trump took office. It's like you read my mind. China only cares about China, not Russia, not pointy nosed EU members. They would have a small sphere of influence in Vietnam, south east Asia and the Koreas. Russia would influence central Asia. Europe (EU) would hold it's own internally, but have no political sway. South america and Africa would be no go zones of tribal warfare, Canada, Australia and N.Z. would be much like Europe. USA would be around but not influencial, gutting 70% of it's military budget to pay off federal debt. I'M SCARED, but this is the way I see it.
    "Run to the rescue with love and peace will follow"

  14. #74

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Gutting military spending wouldn't solve the federal debt. The deficit in the federal budget for the year 2018 was around $800 billion. Defense spending was 700$ billion. Around a third of that is usually payroll and maintenance. The deficit is not really the problem. The problem is that this deficit was cause by tax cuts and increased spending. Spending that didn't even go to Trump's infrastructure plan that hasn't particularly materialized.

  15. #75

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Tax cuts with no real job growth, I agree. We had 1 trillion deficit last year and fiscal year 2020 is estimated at 1.5 trillion. Runaway borrowing with no idea how to begin to pay it all off. How many trillions in debt crack a nation? In a couple decades we will find out.
    "Run to the rescue with love and peace will follow"

  16. #76

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Job growth is real. I'd agree with a broad assertion that there are underlying issues in the U.S. economy, but that's true of every economy in the world. The actual number on the national debt is not particularly relevant. It's really the Debt to GDP ratio that's more important, again, in broad terms. Details matter.

    The most concerning issue for the future of the economy is the lack of tools in the economic toolbox.

    1. Interest rates are one of the most powerful Federal Reserve tools to battle recession. They are near zero which means they don't have interest rates to cut during a recession. Maybe negative interest rates? But that's a big question mark for most people, including some prominent economists.

    2. The Republican Party styles itself as fiscal conservatives. They campaigned tirelessly against fiscal stimulus during the Obama administration. It's a total wildcard as to whether they can design an effective stimulus package to battle a major recession.

    3. The global economy is already characterized as stagnant by many economists. Another major recession might "finish the job" that the 2008 recession started.

  17. #77

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    1. Interest rates are one of the most powerful Federal Reserve tools to battle recession. They are near zero which means they don't have interest rates to cut during a recession. Maybe negative interest rates? But that's a big question mark for most people, including some prominent economists.
    Ahem, negative interest rates.

    2. The Republican Party styles itself as fiscal conservatives. They campaigned tirelessly against fiscal stimulus during the Obama administration. It's a total wildcard as to whether they can design an effective stimulus package to battle a major recession.
    You should be glad that Trump isn't a "fiscal conservative". I don't think there'll be any difficulty getting a generous deal past him.

    3. The global economy is already characterized as stagnant by many economists. Another major recession might "finish the job" that the 2008 recession started.
    We will have to see how deep the corona crisis actually is. Assuming it recedes during the warmer months, a brief period of recession could be reversed in short order. Then again, there is always the possibility that structural weaknesses and insecurities could bring the whole house down.



  18. #78

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    What about them? I acknowledged they exist, but they are not a universally accepted policy tool like low interest rates, that has a track record of being effective.

    You should be glad that Trump isn't a "fiscal conservative". I don't think there'll be any difficulty getting a generous deal past him.
    The issue isn't so much him as it is the GOP and what argument Trump might get into with Dems.

    We will have to see how deep the corona crisis actually is. Assuming it recedes during the warmer months, a brief period of recession could be reversed in short order. Then again, there is always the possibility that structural weaknesses and insecurities could bring the whole house down.
    If we assume that the fundamentals of the world economy are solid (which I doubt), then the virus actually came at the best time possible. Q1-Q2 is pretty slow. There's still time for suppliers to build up inventory for the busier parts of the year. Of course if the coronavirus lasts the better part of the year with production being impeded all the way to mid-summer or beyond, then this could be a real issue. Especially if people don't factor in inventory shortages for Q4. Also, the Dow took another hit today thanks to the oil producers, so that's another wonderful bit of news.

  19. #79

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    US failure goes far beyond Trump’s toxic political style: American supremacy in the world since the Second World War has been rooted in its unique capacity to get things done internationally by persuasion or by the threat or use of force. But the inability of Washington to respond adequately to Covid-19 shows that this is no longer the case and crystallises a perception that American competence is vanishing. The change in attitude is important because superpowers, such as the British Empire, the Soviet Union in the recent past or the US today, depend on a degree of bluff. They cannot afford to put their all-powerful image to the test too often because they cannot be seen to fail: an exaggerated picture of British strength was shattered by the Suez Crisis in 1956, as was that of the Soviet Union by the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

    The reason why the US is weaker as a country is because it is divided and these divisions will get deeper as long as Trump is in power. Hitherto he has avoided provoking serious crises, and his mishandling of the coronavirus epidemic shows that he was wise to do so. He is polarising an already divided country and this is the real reason for the decline of the US.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a9430566.html
    In this latest episode, we see again the ruinous acceleration of US decline brought by Trump’s non-response to the pandemic. He has survived mortal political crises on bluff and bluster, but political smokescreens can’t outrun a disease.

    America’s geopolitical edge has historically manifested in the ability to unite people and rapidly scale up in response to grave global threats, taking a leadership position that no other power can or would dare to match. We see the same utter abdication of US power that we have in Trump’s previous corrupt geopolitical machinations, bungled initiatives, and dismantled international frameworks, this time leaving yet another lane wide open for authoritarian propaganda to seize the initiative. Trump’s characteristic blame game isn’t going to salvage the narrative this time, and as always, it’s the American people that will foot the bill for Teflon Don’s shameless and self-serving race to the bottom.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  20. #80

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    There was no non-response from Trump, in fact his early response to the outbreak drew criticism from Democrats who called people to join large public gatherings just barely over a month ago. Funny how desperately establishment propaganda is trying to do a 180. Also American decline has been going on long before Trump even considered a political career, and it isn't something necessarily bad. The future where US is a regional power with limited military capability would be beneficial not just to the rest of the world, no longer terrorized by "importations of democracy", but to American citizens who would no longer have to have their money wasted on parasitic military-industrial complex.

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