View Poll Results: In the broadest of terms, which of the following most closely describes your geopolitical expectations for the post-US world order?

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  • A truly multipolar reorientation of geopolitics with few or no globally dominant “great powers.”

    10 22.22%
  • A division of the world into “spheres of influence” dominated by authoritarian powers (China, Russia, Iran, for example)

    11 24.44%
  • The US will remain globally dominant thanks to King Dollar and its sheer size, even if politically or militarily weaker relative to its turn of the century peak.

    14 31.11%
  • The EU will pull itself together, emerge from the US’ shadow, neutralize Russian interests on its doorstep, and Europe will once again carry the torch of the liberal/western world order.

    3 6.67%
  • Other (please explain)

    7 15.56%
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Thread: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

  1. #241

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    As the US finds itself trying to play catch up against an increasingly capable, large and assertive PLA, the reassurances of America’s superior innovation capacity run up against the reality that the US military has been hamstrung for years by arbitrary budget restrictions that have undermined medium to longer term planning and investment in modernization and infrastructure. The cost of the Covid 19 pandemic, trillions and trillions of dollars, will amplify these ongoing restrictions, and almost certainly necessitate further cuts as the Biden Admin rams through trillions of dollars in new domestic spending. Inflation, and the rising tax burden the Admin says is needed to pay for the new spending, will continue to weigh on growth and purchasing power. Thus, at a time when the US must be more prepared than ever for an existential struggle, its investments in military capabilities suggest the opposite. The DoD has tried to sound the alarm for a long time now. Even if, by some miracle, US leadership ever wakes up and tries to reverse the problem, it will be too little, too late.
    The uncertain and restrictive budget environment is forcing the Army to make tough choices, the vice chief of staff of the Army, Gen. Daniel B. Allyn, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

    Allyn and his counterparts from the Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps spoke at a hearing on the current state of readiness of U.S. forces.

    The Army is accepting considerable risk by reducing its end strength while deferring modernization programs and infrastructure investments, he said.

    "The ripple effect of that goes through the years,” the admiral said. “You not only lose the maintenance time, but you lose qualification time for people, and that experience set can never be bought back."

    https://www.defense.gov/News/News-St...y-leaders-say/
    Many DoD facilities have degraded significantly from reduced investments, and the department has a $116 billion backlog in facilities requiring attention, Niemeyer said. “A lot of our facilities are either in fail or poor condition,” he told the House panel. “This will ultimately result in the DoD facing larger bills in the future to go ahead to restore or replace facilities that deteriorate prematurely. The stark reality is that it is too costly to buy ourselves out of this this backlog.”

    https://www.defense.gov/News/News-St...larger-budget/
    If the military struggles to maintain the force and infrastructure it has, how can it hope to sustain and replace losses in even a limited war with China?
    Therefore, even if the budget were to hold constant, the ability to purchase defense items is likely to fall. Scenarios only become worse if one considers compounded effects from pandemic-related economic slowing and additional stimulus costs.

    But, in our view, it seems very likely that the cuts are coming. As with the Budget Control Act (PDF), these reductions could be an opportunity for the DoD to make needed changes and reforms, but only if they can be executed thoughtfully and appropriately. In this regard, the Budget Control Act also provides a cautionary tale of what can go wrong if there is not adequate planning and preparation, as the “salami slice” cuts of sequestration (which mandated across-the-board cuts that would impact programs of all types, essential or not, if agreement on reductions could not be achieved) could have been avoided.

    https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/de...-pandemic.html
    People speculate about whether the US can or even would intervene to defend Taiwan when the PLA invades in the near future. Even if defense is successful to a degree, it would mark the beginning, not the end, of an escalating conflict. Soft power and economic power will have their impact, but as Bejing’s growing investments in the rapid modernization and expansion of the PLA demonstrate, the implications of hard power will grow with it. A key advantage of the US during the last world war was that we could replace losses faster than the enemy could inflict them; so much so that we materially sustained not only our own war effort but those of key allies. The US will not have that same productive advantage in the next great power conflict, and in many ways, we are already losing.
    This cycle — persistent demand on an aging and shrinking force, combined with the impact of across-the-board budget cuts caused by budget sequestration in 2013 — has had a lasting impact on the readiness of key elements of American air power. This readiness crisis was at its worst from 2015-2017 when senior leaders testified that less than 50 per cent of the Air Force was ready, or “fully mission capable”, to conduct the full-spectrum of combat tasks including nuclear deterrence missions, supporting counterterrorism operations and engaging in potential conflict with a peer adversary.210 Specific air power assets that are key to the conventional balance in the Indo-Pacific were under strain, including fifth generation F-22s and B-2 bombers.211 Over the same period, the Navy’s carrier air wings and strike aircraft were also struggling, with 62 per cent of its F-18s reportedly “out of service” and not ready for combat.212

    This growing arsenal of accurate long-range missiles poses a major threat to almost all American, allied and partner bases, airstrips, ports and military installations in the Western Pacific.57 As these facilities could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict, the PLA missile threat challenges America’s ability to freely operate its forces from forward locations throughout the region. Alongside China’s broader A2/AD capabilities — including large numbers of fourth-generation fighter jets, advanced C4ISR systems, modern attack submarines, electronic warfare capabilities and dense arrays of sophisticated surface-to-air missiles — it permits the PLA to hold US and allied expeditionary forces at risk, preventing them from operating effectively at sea or in the air within combat range of Chinese targets.58 Following Beijing’s construction of a network of military outposts in the South China Sea that can support sophisticated radars, missile batteries and forward-based aircraft, the A2/AD threat is further intensifying in this critical waterway.

    https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/ave...e-indo-pacific
    Perhaps the biggest problem is that war often comes down to the will to win, especially since neither the US nor China can destroy each other short of nuclear war. The US has been inundated for years by popular and academic institutions with the narrative that the US a white supremacist evil empire built on fraud and lies that must be destroyed from the inside. In China, the dominant narrative is, conversely, that the country is ascendant and the whole nation must work inexorably to achieve its destiny at all costs. When push comes to shove, it’s more and more clear which side would be likely to blink first and retreat from its objectives in such a conflict, as the US has already begun to do in the Middle East.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  2. #242

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    While I do think US should intervene if China attacks Taiwan, I find that intervention highly unlikely. The primary factor here are not even budget reasons, but the fact that American political and military leadership has been largely polluted with Chinese 5th column, general Milley being a perfect example. In order for America to be able to counter PLA's inevitable attempts at expansion, they'd need to basically go full McCarthy on the PLA assets in their own political and military brass, and I see it as highly unlikely, given how Milley got away with essentially committing treason and didn't even lose his post.
    The most likely scenario in the event of CCP attack on Taiwan is that Democrat politicians, a lot of them being Chinese assets, will do everything to block any intervention efforts in the government, while military leaders like Milley will actively provide CCP with intel and maybe aid and albeit them in other ways as well.

  3. #243

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 





    Mahbubani citing George Kennan was as funny as his assertion that China is inherently averse to using military power. I think Mearsheimer makes an important point that realism is the dominant ethos of the Chinese foreign policy establishment, and I would go further to speculate realism is/will come back into fashion in the US as the leadership is forced to confront the realities of great power politics and the relevance of US-built international institutions fades. What is necessarily outmoded by those realities is the norms of a formerly unipolar world. And that’s why the world will accordingly become a less peaceful, less free and less prosperous place to live for most, the weaker the US becomes relative to other powers.

    I think the fundamental point that the speakers implicitly or explicitly agree on is that A) China will continue to rise, B) the twin failures to liberalize the Middle East and China through engagement and force represent the end of the liberal international order, and countries now have to decide at some point whether they will join the US order or the Russian/Chinese order. Mearsheimer made the interesting comparison that even at its height, the Soviet economy was a fraction the size of the US, and Moscow still waged the Cold War toe to toe with the US. Thus regardless of relative size, the US/China conflict will continue in earnest for the foreseeable future, and marks the end of the liberal international order by default.

    For most people, it will also mark an end to the transformative growth and relative prosperity that characterized the era. For countries like China, Russia, or Iran, it could mark the beginning of their comparative rise, which has implications for great power conflict on its own. The US has the capacity to reassert itself and emerge victorious over time. However that depends on a level of competent leadership and policy I think is unlikely, and it’s unclear if the US would try to fully reconstruct whatever is left of the liberal world order, if and when that happens. Mearsheimer points to the World Wars and the Cold War as evidence the US does not tolerate peer competitors. I hope he’s right in that sense, but I have my doubts about America’s commitment after the way our leadership has squandered the unipolar moment, because Red China is far and away the most powerful of any previous adversaries.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  4. #244

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    As American power declines and enemies circle like hungry jackals, it’s easy to feel a sense of resignation. A sense that maybe the naysayers are right and America should go gently into that good night like all the other great powers of history. This isn’t the first time Americans have felt this way, and it won’t be the end, unless We the People allow it. True then, true now.



    “Either we will profit from the errors of their ways, or it follows as the the night the day, our children are gonna have to relive the Dark Ages. What is the secret of our success? Well I think it had to do with a basic American’s creed. Perhaps it never passed the pioneer’s lips in this form, but if it had I think he would have said something like this: ‘I believe in my God, and my Country, and Myself.’ We’ve got it made, if we just keep on keeping on. And if we don’t, we will follow those other great nation states of history into the graveyard of ignominious oblivion. History promises only this for certain: we will get exactly what we deserve.”

    Finish the work.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  5. #245
    ggggtotalwarrior's Avatar hey it geg
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Honestly, I do sometimes wonder if this is how a Roman in the late 300s felt
    Rep me and I'll rep you back.

    UNDER THE PATRONAGE OF THE KING POSTER AKAR

  6. #246

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order



    I think it’s telling the debate ultimately centered on whether American leadership can be recovered.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  7. #247

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post


    I think it’s telling the debate ultimately centered on whether American leadership can be recovered.

    I'd take the retreat if survival was guaranteed. We can't afford to be a global leader in any form of the matter. Revenge of the USSR. But in this time, with so many challenges, so many things going bad and wrong, is this the time for it? My unreal but lovely daydream is Russia and the US team up and tackle these hard issues of today. Like what can feel better than making someone else's life easier? Giving them a higher standard and in turn they think thank you is so trivial? If you really want to know what's music to the heart
    "Run to the rescue with love and peace will follow"

  8. #248

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Critiques of America’s hypersonic weapons programs have also frequently and forcefully centered on the pace and success rate of DoD’s hypersonic testing. It is true that the handful of flight tests that have taken place in 2020 and 2021 are not enough.

    As former Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Michael Griffin noted last year, “We need to be doing one test a week and not one test a quarter.” Any bureaucratic challenges slowing testing are compounded by a lack of sufficient availability of testing ranges, according to a recent internal DoD report obtained by Bloomberg News.

    It is also true that several tests have failed, which notionally is not necessarily a poor outcome. As a Pentagon statement following an October 2021 failed test pointed out, “experiments and tests both successful and unsuccessful are the backbone of developing highly complex and critical technologies at tremendous speed, as the department is doing with hypersonic technologies.”

    However, nearly all these failures have been due to problems unrelated to the hypersonic technologies, meaning that the hypersonic technology was not deployed and lessons about it were not yet learned.

    To focus exclusively on these failures and call for a more deliberate approach to hypersonic development, though, is to ignore or discount the progress DoD has made and the successful tests that have occurred, as well as the DoD’s increasing use of high-performance computing modeling and simulation capabilities in conjunction with testing.

    https://breakingdefense.com/2022/02/...race-risk-now/
    The high price of complacency and cowardice.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  9. #249

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=imsGSSwKSsw

    The CCP has successfully undermined the unipolar, neoliberal world order and it will continue to disintegrate as China and Russia hack away and Americans turn inward. What follows is far from certain. However, based on Beijing’s continued sponsorship of and alignment with authoritarian regimes friendly to its interests, it’s clear that the kind of big tent multilateralism that has characterized American foreign policy since 1989 will no longer be a strategically viable option for the US.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  10. #250

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    IT’S OVER
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  11. #251

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    The CCP has successfully undermined the unipolar, neoliberal world order and it will continue to disintegrate as China and Russia hack away and Americans turn inward.
    Same world order that made CCP strong enough to do that in the first place. Play neoliberal games, win neoliberal prizes.

  12. #252
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Play neoliberal games, win neoliberal prizes.
    If "neoliberal" these days means "anti-Russian", cool. But i don't think it does. I do in fact think that this dread "neoliberalism" is very Russian.

  13. #253

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    I mean neoliberalism is when fiscal oligarchy is in power, so it applies to Russia as much as it does to USA or Canada or any random EU country, my point is that decades of American outsourcing and investments led to China's economic growth. All while dumb Western elitoids thought China is "changing for them" or something, it was slowly building up to finish what Axis started.
    Now we see neoliberal human fossils "realize" that China is "bad after all" or something, and its kinda hilarious.

  14. #254
    Roma_Victrix's Avatar Call me Ishmael
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    The US government just shifted seven thousand additional US troops to Germany in the wake of Russia invading Ukraine. Certainly doesn't really sound like the US has abandoned the world yet or its NATO allies. As for the overall premise of this thread, though, yes, the US is arguably in decline while other powers like the EU and China are rising. The decline is not a sharp one, though, considering how the US is still the largest military superpower on the planet capable of power projection that no other country is able to match.

  15. #255

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order



    “Sweat is the fertilizer of civilization.” As the West seems to be reacquainting with itself, it’s past time Americans remembered who we are.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  16. #256
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post

    “Sweat is the fertilizer of civilization.” As the West seems to be reacquainting with itself, it’s past time Americans remembered who we are.
    As an individual, I have no doubt that sweat is what build up his indestructible confidence. He was a powerful person in his own right, sure. But - forgive me - that is only him.

    It's one thing to thrive on ones own hard work and honorable sacrifice, but it is another to externalize these very individual and often intimate experiences to everyone else. And with this obnoxious grin on top of that.

    Civilisation is built on the capacity of a few to make the majority work for them. Hard. That is how it is done.

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