View Poll Results: In the broadest of terms, which of the following most closely describes your geopolitical expectations for the post-US world order?

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  • A truly multipolar reorientation of geopolitics with few or no globally dominant “great powers.”

    10 22.22%
  • A division of the world into “spheres of influence” dominated by authoritarian powers (China, Russia, Iran, for example)

    11 24.44%
  • The US will remain globally dominant thanks to King Dollar and its sheer size, even if politically or militarily weaker relative to its turn of the century peak.

    14 31.11%
  • The EU will pull itself together, emerge from the US’ shadow, neutralize Russian interests on its doorstep, and Europe will once again carry the torch of the liberal/western world order.

    3 6.67%
  • Other (please explain)

    7 15.56%
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Thread: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

  1. #181

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    Take your own advice. The selections in question that you quoted.



    In other words, it is a published paper that's exploratory in nature, and none of the "gene-editing" nonsense Ratcliffe or the scientists in question are drawing the attention to, has actually happened, or even planned to happen by the Chinese government. These are hypothetical developments, hence why they are not listed in any major report that deals with China.

    Or take the other article's quote, which you again you took out of context.



    Despite the alarmist language, all major powers invest into CRISPR, and the fact that China is heavily invested in the field isn't out of norm. Also, the said scientist, He Jianqui, was denounced within days by the Chinese government. In short, the original Ratcliffe claim,



    Has absolutely no parallels to the articles in question and do not support his allegation in any way. Presumably, Ratcliffe has access to information none of us have, including the large scientific community. Considering his record so far, it is likely as distorted as your narrative of the entire issue in question.



    Try what? Actually reading relevant informaiton on China? Following the China watcher community, and credible defense think tanks like RAND, STRATFOR, CSIS, and the Pentagon? Here's a hint, when you're defending a DNI who's underqualified, frantically googling fringe genetic research in an attempt to defend an alarmist article by said DNI, and mis-interpreting the articles you did find, you are in no position to lecture me about making claims. Especially when you're the one who brought up a fairly awful article that has no relevant information on the great power competition between United States and China. And yes, that is the accepted terminology used in the field to describe this topic.



    The said articles do not support DNI's claims, nor do the articles themselves justify DNI's decision to include hysteria over China's genetic research in his article. In fact, the articles themselves are proof that the DNI doesn't know what he is talking about and the aforementioned hysteria is hardly justified.
    Gainsaying isn’t an argument. It’s ok to admit you didn’t really have a point beyond “muh Trump” and then had to pick out something in the article to make baseless claims about when pressed; this despite not knowing parallel observations had been made by independent sources over a year prior by experts that would fit anyone’s definition of qualified.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; December 10, 2020 at 06:58 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  2. #182

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Gainsaying isn’t an argument. It’s ok to admit you didn’t really have a point beyond “muh Trump” and then had to pick out something in the article to make baseless claims about when pressed; this despite not knowing parallel observations had been made by independent sources over a year prior by experts that would fit anyone’s definition of qualified.
    Non-sequitur. I'm not sure what your point here is, besides complaining about my argumentation. You haven't pointed out a flaw in my reasoning, you haven't addressed the points I raised, and you still haven't established why my criticism of Tump's DNI appointments are wrong.

  3. #183

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    The world would be sucked into a dark ages vortex, with no america. Russia's economy is smaller than the US state of texas or even italy, china would go isolationist, aside from being the clear dominant global economic power. America haters, trust me you do not want a no america world. EU would become weaker and small populated countries like Canada, Aussie and New Zealand will be the only safe havens on earth with a decent economy. If you don't mind freezing your buns off in canada or dealing with spiders the size of my fist in Aussie, I guess the future is good for you. I think Joe Biden's win came just in the knick of time, Trump's twitter insanity shows our uh "stable genius" and how we would of been destroyed individually or nationally if he had won reelection. The trumper's have disintegrated into proud boys and racists. Joe biden has a 2008, barrack obama challenge waiting for him. But his carefully selected cabinet and spirit of unity will pull us through, IMO.
    Last edited by Gaul; December 14, 2020 at 12:29 PM.
    "Run to the rescue with love and peace will follow"

  4. #184
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Food for thought.Not recommended for fanatic, myopic minds.
    Kishore Mahbubani
    The geopolitical showdown between the United States and China is both inevitable, and avoidable.You need to have a fundamental strategic reboot in America thinking
    Very interesting and enlightening discussion between Professor Mahbubani of the National University of Singapore and Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) President, Rob Johnson

    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  5. #185
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    It used to be that the US alone could face off the whole world (think the 90s), but now that China is here, the US are trying to rally their vassals to fight China. In any way you see it, the US has declined in power considerably.

    Any future short of nuclear armageddon is going to require some level of compromise and climb down by the US and their FVEYEs anglo supremacists.

  6. #186

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    It’s certainly true that Trump’s lack of any strategic planning was a massive gift to Beijing. However, the mindset of the inevitable righteousness of democracy is not what fuels confrontation, but rather, what facilitated Wall Street’s role in China’s rise, without which the latter would still be an impoverished, autarkic, closed system. It is capitalism itself which broke the indefinite malaise of the feudal Chinese peasantry. Other East Asian economies saw a similar growth spurt of modernization. Comparing China’s export driven growth model to the US consumption-based model is hardly a representation of some problematic trend for the US. Income inequality is also higher in China - and growing - than in the US.

    We document a rapid increase in income inequality in China’s recent past, capitalizing on newly available survey data collected by several Chinese university survey organizations. By now, China’s income inequality not only surpasses that of the United States by a large margin but also ranks among the highest in the world, especially in comparison with countries with comparable or higher standards of living. We argue that China’s current high income inequality is significantly driven by structural factors attributable to the Chinese political system, the main structural determinants being the rural-urban divide and the regional variation in economic well-being.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/111/19/6928
    Noting a meritocratic concentration of economic power in the hands of an educated, urban elite as a liability for the US while praising it as a key attribute of Chinese success doesn’t really make epistemological sense. The idea that China is a meritocracy and the US is a plutocracy is a purely ideological interpretation. Given his role as an establishment figure in Singapore’s authoritarian government where basic individual freedoms are heavily restricted and political control is maintained by a wealthy elite associated with the dominant political party, I can only guess that background may inform Mahbubani’s praise for the Chinese model relative to the US. One needn’t go down the rabbit hole of mass surveillance, prison camps, information control, Xi Jinping’s de facto dictatorship, etc, to find logical contradictions with this idea of Chinese strength and stability afforded by a happy and prosperous people, juxtaposed with alleged US weakness brought about by sheer concentration of wealth. If the Chinese people were so happy with the CCP, one wonders why the latter is so utterly determined to protect itself against them. This false framing leads to the classic false dichotomy between military spending and economic growth as a systemic Achilles’ heel for the US, which Mahbubani reiterated in the interview; going so far as to compare the US to the USSR.

    U.S. overseas security commitments have a positive, statistically significant effect on U.S. bilateral trade. Doubling U.S. security treaties would expand U.S. bilateral trade by an estimated 34 percent, and doubling U.S. troop commitments overseas would expand such trade by up to 15 percent.

    Trade losses from a 50-percent retrenchment in overseas commitments would reduce U.S. trade in goods and services by approximately $577 billion per year. This reduction in trade would likely reduce U.S. gross domestic product by $490 billion per year.

    The economic losses from retrenchment are conservatively estimated to be more than three times any potential gains.

    https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9912.html
    The US has not “slapped China.” The US has finally been forced by sheer geopolitical reality to confront the threat of Chinese authoritarian expansionism for the sake of maintaining any hope of long term peace and stability in the world, much to the chagrin of the business community, which is normally all too happy to continue its love affair with the Politburo. Confrontation represents a long overdue realization that communist expansionism will not magically disappear via showers of cash and generous trade terms. It must be contained and starved, or else the world will suffer for America’s failure to do so. The idea that geopolitical conflict may be avoidable, as it was against Germany or Russia, is a moot point, and thus by extension, the textbook reference to the Thucydides trap. Beijing has waged a long and skillful war against the US for decades now, and it has gotten to the point where US institutions may be too compromised to fight back in an appropriately strategic manner. The latent reaction by the US and its allies is inherently defensive.

    As the Party has driven Chinese society toward more state-sponsored ideological conformity to create a lasting basis for authoritarian Party rule, it also desires greater ideological control abroad.16 Despite increased efforts to limit “infiltration” of outside values and ideas, Chinese have growing access to Western news, content, and culture.17 The CCP judges that, as China continues to “open up” to reap the benefits of playing a more central role in the global economy, it will need to “sanitize” the external information environment to ensure that such opening does not invite ideological challenges to Party control. Among developing countries, China is most concerned about its “periphery,” where it fears ideological contagion from democratization and “color revolution” might cross into China. Deng Xiaoping, commenting on allowing dangerous foreign influences to circulate in China as it opened to the world, once remarked, “If you open the window for fresh air, you have to expect some flies to blow in.” The CCP is now looking to kill as many flies as possible inside developing countries as it deepens engagement with them.

    Lastly, the CCP shapes information in developing countries as part of an effort to legitimize the Party and China’s authoritarian system on the global stage. China’s promised rise and rejuvenation as a great power, a key pillar of the Party’s legitimacy, requires expanding its normative power abroad. Chinese leaders recognize that to achieve legitimacy as a responsible great power without democratizing—a prospect not welcomed by the developed West—they must first popularize China’s model in the developing world.18 These efforts also support China’s economic goals. Gaining widespread support for its model has become more important as China depends more on a favorable climate for Chinese investments. The CCP conducts large-scale trainings of foreign officials about its development methods and provides increasingly sophisticated technology to authoritarian governments.19 China frequently reprints in domestic official media the “positive China stories” told in foreign media, using reflections of China’s rejuvenation and responsible global role to stoke patriotic sentiment to CCP benefit.20

    The CCP’s approach to influence in the developing world is driven by deep-seated and intensifying concern about regime survival. From the outset of Xi’s tenure, he declared an intent to forcefully restore Party control, prevent a Soviet-style collapse, and prepare for the next phase of “reform and opening up” and China’s rise to great power status. These enduring imperatives will ensure an aggressive Chinese approach to securing leverage over developing countries even after Xi has stepped down. To prevent the resulting spread of authoritarianism and defend its interests, the United States will need to recommit to the hard work of defending democracy around the world.

    https://www.brookings.edu/articles/p...eloping-world/
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; December 22, 2020 at 04:25 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  7. #187

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Exarch View Post
    It used to be that the US alone could face off the whole world (think the 90s), but now that China is here, the US are trying to rally their vassals to fight China. In any way you see it, the US has declined in power considerably.

    Any future short of nuclear armageddon is going to require some level of compromise and climb down by the US and their FVEYEs anglo supremacists.
    This depends greatly on how China manages their factors of production. United States has several key advantages over any potential competitors.

    Land; As one of the biggest nations on the globe, United States has enormous physical resources. Arable land, water, energy, mineral resources. There are very, very few things that United States lacks in this regard.

    Labour; Unlike other developed economies in Europe (or elsewhere), our age demographics are drastically slowed down. Look at places like Poland, or extreme cases like Japan. We don't have a similar problem despite being a developed country for far longer. Labour flocks to United States. The best, prime-age talent wants to come to America to start their lives. Low-skill or high-skill labor all wants to come to America. You look at economies with great potential like China, India, Iran, Mexico etc... and many best parts of their human capital flees their countries. In 50 years I don't doubt that United States will still be a nation of immigrants with fairly healthy demographics. I cannot say the same for China.

    Capital; The US Dollar is the world reserve currency. Our central bank is a respected and independent institution. New York is the financial hub of the globe and everybody knows that United States is mostly dominated by rules of free enterprise with very little interference from the State. Naturally, capital inflows are partly responsible for the perpetual trade deficit that United States carries with the rest of the world. That's a sign of strength, not weakness, despite what Trump and the CCP want you to believe.

    Freedom; Underrated by some, overrated by others, but nonetheless an important component of why USA #1.

  8. #188
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    This depends greatly on how China manages their factors of production. United States has several key advantages over any potential competitors.
    The United States has squandered those advantages; it is rather like 4th c. Rome which had all the resources and tech and advantages and still declined and collapsed.

    Land; As one of the biggest nations on the globe, United States has enormous physical resources. Arable land, water, energy, mineral resources. There are very, very few things that United States lacks in this regard.
    Energy resources only matter if it can be brought to market and US shale oil for eg is simply not economically feasible, compared to russian oil-hence the need for the US to use its CIA and State Department to pressure governments in europe to buy US shale.

    Labour; Unlike other developed economies in Europe (or elsewhere), our age demographics are drastically slowed down. Look at places like Poland, or extreme cases like Japan. We don't have a similar problem despite being a developed country for far longer. Labour flocks to United States. The best, prime-age talent wants to come to America to start their lives. Low-skill or high-skill labor all wants to come to America. You look at economies with great potential like China, India, Iran, Mexico etc... and many best parts of their human capital flees their countries. In 50 years I don't doubt that United States will still be a nation of immigrants with fairly healthy demographics. I cannot say the same for China.
    Several things:

    One, is marketing of the american dream enough to compel foreign talent to come to the US and stay, even as the US descends into fascism and civil war?

    Civil order in the US is collapsing due to rising inequality and the the plethora of unmarried, under employed young males of military age who are susceptible to fascists street gangs like the Proud Boys.

    Two, the demographics of the US point towards growing ethnic infighting, as we saw with the Floyd protests as previously especially with the white anglo demographic growing increasingly insecure and needing to cater to 'white hispanics' to retain democratic relevance. It certainly does not help when Washington has a policy of race war to maintain order at home.

    and finally,
    Capital; The US Dollar is the world reserve currency. Our central bank is a respected and independent institution. New York is the financial hub of the globe and everybody knows that United States is mostly dominated by rules of free enterprise with very little interference from the State. Naturally, capital inflows are partly responsible for the perpetual trade deficit that United States carries with the rest of the world. That's a sign of strength, not weakness, despite what Trump and the CCP want you to believe.
    the growing irrelevance of the USD as the reserve currency will only increase in the years to come. Losing China as the main buyer of Treasuries is going to have a bigger impact on US living standards and social order than the mass printing and hyperinflation and poor governance of the United States.

    Hell, we can even see this in the field of sci/tech research; China already surpasses the US in tech and research so much so that the USG openly said to China that they would cease the trade war if China promised not to do high science and make white anglo americans feel insecure. It's why Trump and Co. are so intent on a race war to keep the US from falling apart.

  9. #189

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Exarch View Post
    Energy resources only matter if it can be brought to market and US shale oil for eg is simply not economically feasible, compared to russian oil-hence the need for the US to use its CIA and State Department to pressure governments in europe to buy US shale.
    "Economic feasibility" these days is a matter of environmental regulations. If we were truly pressed for energy, we have enormous coal and natural gas reserves. Enormous hydroelectric potential, and great potential for wind, solar, and geothermal power. The reason why we don't need shale is because we balance the environment vs immediate economic concerns. Weaning off fossil fuels is as much a strategic concern now as it is an environmental one.

    Several things:

    One, is marketing of the american dream enough to compel foreign talent to come to the US and stay, even as the US descends into fascism and civil war?
    We just survived our closest call with fascism and rejected it.

    Civil order in the US is collapsing due to rising inequality and the the plethora of unmarried, under employed young males of military age who are susceptible to fascists street gangs like the Proud Boys.
    They said the same thing during the Civil Rights Era.

    Two, the demographics of the US point towards growing ethnic infighting, as we saw with the Floyd protests as previously especially with the white anglo demographic growing increasingly insecure and needing to cater to 'white hispanics' to retain democratic relevance. It certainly does not help when Washington has a policy of race war to maintain order at home.
    United States is based on civic nationalism. The faster people realize that, the faster we can put ethnic nationalism behind us. "White" doesn't even mean anything aside from skin color. A large portion of "White Americans" are descendants of immigrants who faced the same persecution many illegal immigrants face today. A rejuvenated belief and a reminder that United States is a nation of immigrants is indeed overdue, and what you perceive as a "weakness" is actually the source of strength when it comes to demographics.

    and finally,

    the growing irrelevance of the USD as the reserve currency will only increase in the years to come. Losing China as the main buyer of Treasuries is going to have a bigger impact on US living standards and social order than the mass printing and hyperinflation and poor governance of the United States.
    Countries have flocked towards the US Dollars in recent years, not away from it.

    Hell, we can even see this in the field of sci/tech research; China already surpasses the US in tech and research so much so that the USG openly said to China that they would cease the trade war if China promised not to do high science and make white anglo americans feel insecure. It's why Trump and Co. are so intent on a race war to keep the US from falling apart.
    China is desperately trying to catch up and develop domestic industries. They did not surpass us. Consumer Goods =/= Technology. Note that an enormous quantity of Intellectual Property is produced in the West, not in the East. You are also looking at the wrong thing. Instead of looking at "technology and research", you are really looking at capitalization and industrial capacity. What is also noteworthy is that some of the biggest technological hubs, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, are staunch US allies. China is desperately trying to entice these countries to join their economic bloc. China is so blatantly suspicious that they are also attempting economic coercion, but everybody knows, that the US security umbrella is far too lucrative to abandon.

  10. #190
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    "Economic feasibility" these days is a matter of environmental regulations. If we were truly pressed for energy, we have enormous coal and natural gas reserves. Enormous hydroelectric potential, and great potential for wind, solar, and geothermal power. The reason why we don't need shale is because we balance the environment vs immediate economic concerns. Weaning off fossil fuels is as much a strategic concern now as it is an environmental one.
    Oh without a doubt, the north american continent is blessed with many mineral and natural resources, but environmental regulations didn't just come about for no reason. Looking at US society in the 70s prior to the EPA, you had a LOT of Americans complaining about something needing to be done to clean up the air and rivers. The US could actually benefit from Chinese investment and tech know how eg the proposed high speed rail in California but the outgoing administration was more concerned with a new cold and race war to maintain hegemony.

    We just survived our closest call with fascism and rejected it.
    Good luck with the aftermath, it won't be easy to ensure Trump's toxicity is relegated to the dustbin of history, but here's hoping.

    They said the same thing during the Civil Rights Era.
    The US was saved by the petrodollar and the FBI destroying the Black Panthers as a potential insurgency. Nothing fundamentally changed else wise we would not have the Floyd protests or even the Rodney King riots decades prior.


    United States is based on civic nationalism. The faster people realize that, the faster we can put ethnic nationalism behind us. "White" doesn't even mean anything aside from skin color. A large portion of "White Americans" are descendants of immigrants who faced the same persecution many illegal immigrants face today. A rejuvenated belief and a reminder that United States is a nation of immigrants is indeed overdue, and what you perceive as a "weakness" is actually the source of strength when it comes to demographics.
    Well the United States is advertised as being based on civic nationalism but in practice, it is fundamentally a race based apartheid caste system. The move by Trump to end birthright citizenship is merely formalising the intent of the white american power structure: that of making the United States a white western nation and only a white western nation, with a few "honorary whites" (your civic nationalists).


    Countries have flocked towards the US Dollars in recent years, not away from it.
    In previous years yes; not this year. More fund managers flocked into Chinese Yuan despite the un-convertibility of it, especially with the ongoing devaluing QE-infinity fiasco of the Treasury.

    China is desperately trying to catch up and develop domestic industries. They did not surpass us. Consumer Goods =/= Technology. Note that an enormous quantity of Intellectual Property is produced in the West, not in the East. You are also looking at the wrong thing. Instead of looking at "technology and research", you are really looking at capitalization and industrial capacity. What is also noteworthy is that some of the biggest technological hubs, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, are staunch US allies. China is desperately trying to entice these countries to join their economic bloc. China is so blatantly suspicious that they are also attempting economic coercion, but everybody knows, that the US security umbrella is far too lucrative to abandon.
    China already surpasses the US in a few core technologies eg 5G, hypersonic glide vehicles, genetic engineering and is merely years away from surpassing the few remaining leads the US still retains: semiconductors and software.

    Given the pogroms against Chinese Americans in the US in the recent years, you are going to see more and more Chinese Americans (who currently and previously formed the backbone of US tech/research) returning to China with their own ideas, innovation and technical know-how.

    Finally, you pin too much hope in the political of S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan; even with the DPP at the helm, taiwan is going to be absorbed into the PRC sooner or later, and south korea and japan could have joined trump and pompeo's trade and race cold war, and yet they hung back, stayed out of the way and continued working with China. Only Australia signed up hook line and sinker for this race war and is now currently suffering the consequences of their actions.

    RCEP has merely re-inforced the integration of China into the east and south east asian economies. China is here to stay and even Biden has come to grudgingly accept it.

  11. #191

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Exarch View Post
    Oh without a doubt, the north american continent is blessed with many mineral and natural resources, but environmental regulations didn't just come about for no reason. Looking at US society in the 70s prior to the EPA, you had a LOT of Americans complaining about something needing to be done to clean up the air and rivers. The US could actually benefit from Chinese investment and tech know how eg the proposed high speed rail in California but the outgoing administration was more concerned with a new cold and race war to maintain hegemony.
    High speed rail is impeded by geography and rail ownership. Rail is mostly privatized in United States, and used for freight. it also makes little sense to use rail from San Francisco to New York, for instance. Where rail is actually useful is in places where it can connect suburbia to metropolitan centers. Take Seattle Light Rail and SountTransit for instance, which connects Tacoma to Seattle and all of the suburbs along the way. Such projects are well underway in places where they make sense, but infrastructure is obviously a complicated business in America.

    As for environmental regulations, I wouldn't be tooting China's horn whatsoever on that front. In fact, China banned import of plastics precisely because they realized that sorting, re-using, and ultimately dumping it into their own rivers and landfills, is screwing with their environment. I mean, this is a country where it's own citizens had to rely on air quality monitors on the US Embassy in Beijing, to realize that their government was lying to them about air pollution. China is so far behind in this regard, it's laughable.

    Good luck with the aftermath, it won't be easy to ensure Trump's toxicity is relegated to the dustbin of history, but here's hoping.
    Every crisis is an opportunity.

    The US was saved by the petrodollar and the FBI destroying the Black Panthers as a potential insurgency. Nothing fundamentally changed else wise we would not have the Floyd protests or even the Rodney King riots decades prior.
    The petrodollar isn't really a thing, and the Civil Rights Act fundamentally changed the topic of racism in this country. There are ways to go before institutional racism is eliminated in United States, but significant progress has been made. Certainly more than in China which is currently regressing in that regard.

    Well the United States is advertised as being based on civic nationalism but in practice, it is fundamentally a race based apartheid caste system. The move by Trump to end birthright citizenship is merely formalising the intent of the white american power structure: that of making the United States a white western nation and only a white western nation, with a few "honorary whites" (your civic nationalists).
    This is certainly not true. Racial disparities and institutional racism certainly exists, but United States is fundamentally based on citizenship. Fact is, minority political groups in United States can be disproportionally powerful, and White Americans, have been steadily declining as a share of total population. Of course skin color itself is becoming increasingly meaningless, to the dismay of many racists and nationalists out there. Though the GOP has started to increasingly embrace racism as a tool, they are going to have to slide towards a values based platform. It is not a coincidence that the GOP is increasingly turning towards minority candidates and women. We all know where the wing is blowing and party platforms reflect it.

    In previous years yes; not this year. More fund managers flocked into Chinese Yuan despite the un-convertibility of it, especially with the ongoing devaluing QE-infinity fiasco of the Treasury.
    This is not a reflection of a "devaluation fiasco" and a reflection of China's outward looking foreign policy. China is increasingly investing in other countries as they proceed with BRI. China is actually doing the correct thing, macroeconomically and geopolitically in terms of BRI, but they're also turning towards centralization rather than economic liberalization. So it's a mixed bag. Relatively speaking however, the USD is quite strong and inflation is lower than it needs to be. Current inflation is too low relative to the economic downturn.

    China already surpasses the US in a few core technologies eg 5G, hypersonic glide vehicles, genetic engineering and is merely years away from surpassing the few remaining leads the US still retains: semiconductors and software.
    Again, 5G is not really something China "surpass" us on. This isn't a matter of technological inferiority. It's a matter of infrastructure investment. China spends money on infrastructure while US Congress is deliberating on whether the stimulus checks should be 600$ or 1200$. As far as hypersonics go, the DF-17 is fairly boring. Current AEGIS umbrella is pretty well equipped against such threats. China's missile armament is simply inferior to the US Navy's. SM-3 and SPY-6 are as close to space magic as you can get, and they've been delivered. China's current armament is still mostly, Russian systems repackaged and improved for Chinese use.

    I'm not knocking on China for that. China put together a lot of fairly impressive ships (on paper), and they've put out a lot of them. But even their next-gen stuff is about a generation to half a generation behind ours. This is reminiscent of when Japan was catching up to United States in the 80s and 90s. What happened is what happens to any country approaching cutting edge technology. It's much harder to innovate than it is to catch up. And Japan did actually surpass United States in many industries, but they are still far behind overall no? Japan is arguably ahead in many sensor and semiconductor technologies. They certainly make better cars and many other high end products (pens, knives, metallurgy, chalk), but even without their demographic crisis, they are far behind in terms of intellectual property.

    Given the pogroms against Chinese Americans in the US in the recent years, you are going to see more and more Chinese Americans (who currently and previously formed the backbone of US tech/research) returning to China with their own ideas, innovation and technical know-how.

    Finally, you pin too much hope in the political of S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan; even with the DPP at the helm, taiwan is going to be absorbed into the PRC sooner or later, and south korea and japan could have joined trump and pompeo's trade and race cold war, and yet they hung back, stayed out of the way and continued working with China. Only Australia signed up hook line and sinker for this race war and is now currently suffering the consequences of their actions.

    RCEP has merely re-inforced the integration of China into the east and south east asian economies. China is here to stay and even Biden has come to grudgingly accept it.
    Well in terms of who stays and who goes as far as foreign students are concerned, I'm not too worried. As I said before, United States tends to attract the best talent for a good reason.

    Second, Japan has made clear commitments to be a staunch US ally during the Trump administration. Taiwan's anti-China sentiment is actually at an all time high at the moment, Kuomintang is an increasingly spent force in Taiwanese politics. Something you yourself should know Exarch. It's 2020 performance was arguably even more disappointing than the 2016 one. It's also very hard to see any South Korea/China alliance while N. Korea exists in its current form.

  12. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    High speed rail is impeded by geography and rail ownership. Rail is mostly privatized in United States, and used for freight. it also makes little sense to use rail from San Francisco to New York, for instance. Where rail is actually useful is in places where it can connect suburbia to metropolitan centers. Take Seattle Light Rail and SountTransit for instance, which connects Tacoma to Seattle and all of the suburbs along the way. Such projects are well underway in places where they make sense, but infrastructure is obviously a complicated business in America.
    Therein lies the root of america's rot: over-privatisation of state assets leading to the stagnancy of US infrastructure. It requires political will and vision to invest in infrastructure that will benefit one's descendants.
    Take the foil of the US: China, they are building infrastructure that they may not need right now but will in the future; all those 'ghost cities' that were all the rage in the western propaganda outlets a few years ago? They are now thriving with life.
    High speed rail is another area which while expensive for a private company, is acceptable and even far sighted for the Chinese Communist Party for the wellbeing of China.
    Look at this:
    https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1341632651212386305
    That's the future, HSR run cargo zipping across China and the BRI and RCEP.

    The reason why the US won't have the same goes back to the root of america's rot: over-privatisation and corruption. US airliner lobbyists will prevent HSR from being implemented in the US because it cuts into their profits; prior to COVID for eg the LA-Chicago-NY route would have been money makers for the shareholders of US companies. Losing that to HSR would be as devastating as COVID now is to the airline industry.


    As for environmental regulations, I wouldn't be tooting China's horn whatsoever on that front. In fact, China banned import of plastics precisely because they realized that sorting, re-using, and ultimately dumping it into their own rivers and landfills, is screwing with their environment. I mean, this is a country where it's own citizens had to rely on air quality monitors on the US Embassy in Beijing, to realize that their government was lying to them about air pollution. China is so far behind in this regard, it's laughable.
    Your information is at least 9 years out of date; environmentalism goes hand in hand with Xi's 'moderately prosperous society' and dual circulation economy; that's why there was such a political furore over China rejecting waste from the West, such that Trump threatened the Chinese government if they didn't take in the trash.

    Secondly, China has committed to zero emission by 2060 and has committed to the Paris climate agreements along with the EU.

    The US is startlingly absent, although we hope Biden will bring the US back into the fold.



    The petrodollar isn't really a thing, and the Civil Rights Act fundamentally changed the topic of racism in this country. There are ways to go before institutional racism is eliminated in United States, but significant progress has been made. Certainly more than in China which is currently regressing in that regard.
    I'm sorry, but that's patently false.

    Racism is as much of a problem in the US as it was in the 60s-70s. Perhaps much worse given the worsening levels of inequality. Ascribing western style racism with its history of apartheid and slavery, to China is not just absurd, it is insulting to those who suffered from slavery and jim crow laws, and even to the african american community who are being ethnically cleansed from the united states.

    At least in China, they mandate all 56 ethnicities as being a core part of the PRC-even having other ethnic minority languages on the currency. Where oh where is harriet tubman or frederik douglass on US bank notes?
    More pointedly, what happened to the german and norwegian migrants who came to america in the 19th-20th centuries and why do they not speak german or norwegian at all? they have been ethnically cleansed and culturally genocided to become part of the anglo power structure.


    This is not a reflection of a "devaluation fiasco" and a reflection of China's outward looking foreign policy. China is increasingly investing in other countries as they proceed with BRI. China is actually doing the correct thing, macroeconomically and geopolitically in terms of BRI, but they're also turning towards centralization rather than economic liberalization. So it's a mixed bag. Relatively speaking however, the USD is quite strong and inflation is lower than it needs to be. Current inflation is too low relative to the economic downturn.
    The US has no choice but to keep spending-which leads to more debt; in fact, the US is headed for its own lost decade and 70s style stagflation. This is going to do nothing for the increasing unrest that is to come.

    The 70mln Trump supporters may well diminish due to covid but they are certainly around enough to present a national security threat.


    Well in terms of who stays and who goes as far as foreign students are concerned, I'm not too worried. As I said before, United States tends to attract the best talent for a good reason.
    100 million africans as some americans may want, is not going to have the preferred outcome when it comes to maintaining US dominance.

    Already the backbone of US tech research: Chinese students, are already returning back to China given the pogroms and red menace from the FBI.

    Second, Japan has made clear commitments to be a staunch US ally during the Trump administration. Taiwan's anti-China sentiment is actually at an all time high at the moment, Kuomintang is an increasingly spent force in Taiwanese politics. Something you yourself should know Exarch. It's 2020 performance was arguably even more disappointing than the 2016 one. It's also very hard to see any South Korea/China alliance while N. Korea exists in its current form.
    KMT is done for, a corrupt dictatorship which will be relegated to the dustbin of history; the DPP are going nowhere and are merely inviting the liberation of the island sooner rather than later.

    No american will die for taiwan, any american military action in the strait will result in an american defeat and cement the US' Suez moment. A defeat in the strait (because all analysis points to a Chinese victory unless trump wants to go nuclear) would send the message across the world that the US is a spent force. Iran may well decide to rid itself of US bases in its vicinity, and so too may any of the other countries around the world.

    Finally, you misunderstand China; China doesn't need South Korea to side with it against the US; it simply needs South Korea to stay out of the fight which by all indications the koreans are willing to heed, as are the japanese who appear to be playing both sides.

  13. #193

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Exarch View Post
    Therein lies the root of america's rot: over-privatisation of state assets leading to the stagnancy of US infrastructure. It requires political will and vision to invest in infrastructure that will benefit one's descendants.
    Take the foil of the US: China, they are building infrastructure that they may not need right now but will in the future; all those 'ghost cities' that were all the rage in the western propaganda outlets a few years ago? They are now thriving with life.
    High speed rail is another area which while expensive for a private company, is acceptable and even far sighted for the Chinese Communist Party for the wellbeing of China.
    Look at this:
    https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1341632651212386305
    That's the future, HSR run cargo zipping across China and the BRI and RCEP.

    The reason why the US won't have the same goes back to the root of america's rot: over-privatisation and corruption. US airliner lobbyists will prevent HSR from being implemented in the US because it cuts into their profits; prior to COVID for eg the LA-Chicago-NY route would have been money makers for the shareholders of US companies. Losing that to HSR would be as devastating as COVID now is to the airline industry.
    Sub-standard investment into infrastructure is indeed a major problem for United States. But it's only one factor out of many. One cannot justify a prediction, that United States will fall simply because it's infrastructure investment falls behind China's. The biggest barrier to High Speed Rail isn't an airline executive. The biggest barriers are permits and sheer cost. Do you have any idea how expensive it is to buy strips of land in order to build rail across downtown? You probably have an idea now that I've brought it up. Suffice to say, spending billions alone just to buy up some land, is a fairly expensive ordeal. Even with eminent domain. Moreover, it makes absolutely no sense to build rail from say, Los Angeles to Austin, Texas. The airport infrastructure is already there, and there is very little reason for people to commute between the two economic hubs on the daily. And that's really one of the cornerstones of why High Speed Rail doesn't compete with Airline travel. They are two different markets, used by two different types of customers. Mass transit is typically for commuters, people who work. Airline travel is for tourists or business travelers. These are different demographics that don't have a ton of overlap.

    As for privatization, the airline industry is one of the biggest success stories about how privatization and de-regulation made airline cheap and accessible to everyone. Before the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, air fares were steadily increasing. After? A steady decrease to rock bottom rates we see today. So if you want to talk about over-privatization and corruption, the airline industry is really the wrong one to look at. This is an industry that has razor-thin margins and extreme competition. All thanks to privatization. I mean if you want to see what a state-run airline looks like, look at Aeroflot. It's a miracle the Russian government didn't run it into the ground.

    Your information is at least 9 years out of date; environmentalism goes hand in hand with Xi's 'moderately prosperous society' and dual circulation economy; that's why there was such a political furore over China rejecting waste from the West, such that Trump threatened the Chinese government if they didn't take in the trash.

    Secondly, China has committed to zero emission by 2060 and has committed to the Paris climate agreements along with the EU.

    The US is startlingly absent, although we hope Biden will bring the US back into the fold.
    I'm not saying that China is anti-environment. I'm simply saying they're way behind the curve on United States. That's even with Trump. Virtually every Republican before 2016, and every Democrat since 2000, has made environmentalism a part of their platform. While the relatively new anti-science and anti-environment GOP position is disappointing, the economics and the majority of the political establishment knows which way the wind is blowing. China's advantage is being a world leader in manufacturing wind turbines and solar panels or whatever. But they are so far behind in basically everything else, that's it's a bit of a wash. China still has enormous amounts of pollution and the Chinese know it. They're not making big environmental goals out of altruism.


    I'm sorry, but that's patently false.

    Racism is as much of a problem in the US as it was in the 60s-70s. Perhaps much worse given the worsening levels of inequality. Ascribing western style racism with its history of apartheid and slavery, to China is not just absurd, it is insulting to those who suffered from slavery and jim crow laws, and even to the african american community who are being ethnically cleansed from the united states.

    At least in China, they mandate all 56 ethnicities as being a core part of the PRC-even having other ethnic minority languages on the currency. Where oh where is harriet tubman or frederik douglass on US bank notes?
    More pointedly, what happened to the german and norwegian migrants who came to america in the 19th-20th centuries and why do they not speak german or norwegian at all? they have been ethnically cleansed and culturally genocided to become part of the anglo power structure.
    Economic conditions for African Americans have factually improved. Considering just how stifling systemic racism was before the 60s and 70s, that's a massive improvement on the back of civil rights reform.

    I don't really wanna hear about how understanding and multicultural China is when you are keeping Uighurs in camps, without due process, under surveillances akin to a modern neo-nazi state. That's a fact, and it will remain to be a big, black blot on anything the CCP does in the same way that America is forever tarnished by slavery, racism, segregation, and Indian reservations.

    The US has no choice but to keep spending-which leads to more debt; in fact, the US is headed for its own lost decade and 70s style stagflation. This is going to do nothing for the increasing unrest that is to come.

    The 70mln Trump supporters may well diminish due to covid but they are certainly around enough to present a national security threat.
    United States is not headed for stagflation, I've heard these worries before and I debunked them. Is it possible? Of course, everything is possible. However, deflation and stagnation are far bigger threats than stagflation.

    100 million africans as some americans may want, is not going to have the preferred outcome when it comes to maintaining US dominance.

    Already the backbone of US tech research: Chinese students, are already returning back to China given the pogroms and red menace from the FBI.
    That's quite a bit insulting to the extremely diverse population of STEM graduates. The engine of all US tech research are prestigious universities, startups and corporations that invest the resources and manpower to produce intellectual property. The iPhone was introduced by a the son of a Muslim. Google was founded by a Russian immigrant and a Jew. Tesla is led by a South African. United States will continue to be a technological powerhouse because we attract the talent and have the conditions necessary to foster such innovation.

    KMT is done for, a corrupt dictatorship which will be relegated to the dustbin of history; the DPP are going nowhere and are merely inviting the liberation of the island sooner rather than later.

    No american will die for taiwan, any american military action in the strait will result in an american defeat and cement the US' Suez moment. A defeat in the strait (because all analysis points to a Chinese victory unless trump wants to go nuclear) would send the message across the world that the US is a spent force. Iran may well decide to rid itself of US bases in its vicinity, and so too may any of the other countries around the world.

    Finally, you misunderstand China; China doesn't need South Korea to side with it against the US; it simply needs South Korea to stay out of the fight which by all indications the koreans are willing to heed, as are the japanese who appear to be playing both sides.
    The DPP is fiercely opposed to China. They have their own issues, but Taiwan is currently drifting away from China rather than towards it.

    Americans died for Muslims in Iraq, they died for Pashtuns in Afghanistan, and they almost got into a ramming war with Russia just a few weeks ago. I'm pretty confident that American troops will die wherever they're told to die and that's unlikely to change anytime soon.

    Current analyses that predict the balance of power tipping towards China, always operate under assumption that United States is fighting alone and unilaterally. Not only is that an increasingly unlikely scenario, it's also the worst case scenario. There are three U.S. fleets operating in Asia Pacific currently. That's much more military tonnage than China has in terms of carriers, then you add in the qualitative difference, then you add U.S. allies, and the deck is stacked heavily against China for the next 20 years. We can revisit this topic when I'm 46, but as it stands right now, United States is unlikely to lose if things come to a fight.

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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post


    Economic conditions for African Americans have factually improved. Considering just how stifling systemic racism was before the 60s and 70s, that's a massive improvement on the back of civil rights reform. .
    You could also say that material standards of living have improved for all americans irrespective of class or race since the 70s, and yet african americans are overwhelmingly represented in prisons and police murder statistics, so much so that it has created a mass social movement that could turn to Revolution: Black Lives Matter.

    If social conditions for african americans had truly improved to be on par with white americans, there would be no need for BLM or the countless murders of african american 'joggers' that have now become as commonplace as mobile phone footage.


    I don't really wanna hear about how understanding and multicultural China is when you are keeping Uighurs in camps, without due process, under surveillances akin to a modern neo-nazi state. That's a fact, and it will remain to be a big, black blot on anything the CCP does in the same way that America is forever tarnished by slavery, racism, segregation, and Indian reservations.
    Gonna have to stop you right there, bub cuz you're just repeating anglo media propaganda talking points as opposed to factual information. Ever wonder why all western media source all their information from the same source? Adrian Zenz? The christian fundamentalist who believes homosexuals are to burn in hell?
    Why would observers from islamic nations who have visited xinjiang praised the CCP's handling of radicals and yet the US refuses, even upon invitation to visit Xinjiang and check out these vocation centres?

    If anything, the Chinese Communist Party is humanity's last and best hope for rising above the petty squabbles of Holy Terra; Anglo America and the Five Eyes lack the human and technological capital for humanity to become an interstellar species.


    United States is not headed for stagflation, I've heard these worries before and I debunked them. Is it possible? Of course, everything is possible. However, deflation and stagnation are far bigger threats than stagflation.
    2020 has indicators that portend stagflation:
    Stagflation will challenge the president in 2021
    Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...21-11604274618
    Why Stagflation Is Back on Some TradersÂ’ Radars
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...dars-quicktake

    That's quite a bit insulting to the extremely diverse population of STEM graduates. The engine of all US tech research are prestigious universities, startups and corporations that invest the resources and manpower to produce intellectual property. The iPhone was introduced by a the son of a Muslim
    .
    A Syrian adoptee who was raised as an anglo white american, and entering the privileged class of the apartheid caste system of america.

    Google was founded by a Russian immigrant and a Jew.
    A member of the white privileged class in the apartheid caste system of america.

    Tesla is led by a South African.
    A member of the white privileged class in the apartheid caste system of america.


    United States will continue to be a technological powerhouse because we attract the talent and have the conditions necessary to foster such innovation.
    Only if the US can continue to attract asian talent and innovation; Silicon Valley is practically run by asian engineers.

    The DPP is fiercely opposed to China. They have their own issues, but Taiwan is currently drifting away from China rather than towards it.
    What taiwan wants doesn't matter; what decides the matter is force of arms and power and as time goes by, the power balance shifts ever more towards the PRC.

    Already, American policymakers are preparing for the political fallout for not fighting for taiwan when the moment comes.


    Americans died for Muslims in Iraq, they died for Pashtuns in Afghanistan, and they almost got into a ramming war with Russia just a few weeks ago. I'm pretty confident that American troops will die wherever they're told to die and that's unlikely to change anytime soon.
    Americans died for muslims in Iraq? Maybe that's why Iraqis love anglo americans and will willingly fight and die for anglo america then eh?

    Maybe this is what anglo american propaganda tells its people to get them to sign up to foreign wars to become future applicants for limb prosthetics and opioids.

    Current analyses that predict the balance of power tipping towards China, always operate under assumption that United States is fighting alone and unilaterally. Not only is that an increasingly unlikely scenario, it's also the worst case scenario. There are three U.S. fleets operating in Asia Pacific currently. That's much more military tonnage than China has in terms of carriers, then you add in the qualitative difference, then you add U.S. allies, and the deck is stacked heavily against China for the next 20 years. We can revisit this topic when I'm 46, but as it stands right now, United States is unlikely to lose if things come to a fight
    Chinese are willing to kill to recover taiwan; are anglo americans prepared to lose Hawaii, Alaska and Australia for taiwan?

    the anglo american power structure like to milk the taiwan issue for pork barreling for their donors (hundred million dollars for a single missile!) but have proven to lack the cojones to start a war with China.

  15. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    the classic false dichotomy between military spending and economic growth
    Even common sense says the opposite.
    Generally speaking, there is a negative correlation between military spending and social growth.The military spending contributes nothing to output in the short-run.

    IMF eLibrary- -The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic
    I quote,
    V.Summary and Conclusion

    There is a number of good reasons to expect that military spending cuts associated with improved international security would be likely to enhance long-run economic growth performance.

    Thus it is surprising that the empirical literature, taken as a whole, yelds an ambigous answer to the question whether military spending cuts have a positive impact on growth.

    This paper was motivated by our suspicion that the ambighous results of past studies may reflect weakness in estimation methodology, particularly the failure to exploit the cross-sectional and time series dimensions of available data using appropriate econometric techniques.

    (...) Given this considerations, the key policy implication of this study is straightforward. Although the effects of military spending may accumulate gradually over many years, the peace dividend is likely to be very substantial in long term.Thus, for policemakers who can exercise sufficient patience, reductions in military spending should be attractive structural policy elements of economic reform designed to enhance economic growth performance.
    Let's keep in mind Eisenhower's farewell address, known for its warnings about the growing power of the military-industrial complex,


    ---
    The Military-Industrial Complex and US Military Spending ...

    In short, the balance of institutional and economic power has tilted aggressively in favorof the military-industrial complex, to the point where numerous corporate, executive branch,Congressional and bureaucratic allies are linked in favoring the maintenance of relatively highlevels of military spending. It will take a vigorous political response to dislodge such an embedded political force.
    Last edited by Ludicus; December 23, 2020 at 10:40 AM.
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Gainsaying the Rand analysis isn’t really an argument, though, and the IMF study does not do so, unlike your argument. Speculating as to the potential long term benefits of a peace dividend is also based on the assumption that global economic and security trends would not be negatively impacted by a military retrenchment.
    It is also relevant to note that these simulation results may actually tend to understate the positive output-growth effects of enhanced international security. First, a sustained global peace might eventually reduce the world military spending ratio by more than our simulations assume. Universal peace, after all, would be a classic example of a public good. Furthermore, although our simulations explicitly assume that all determinants of invest* ment and growth other than military spending would remain unchanged even if a generalized peace were achieved, it is likely that there would be positive synergies in the evolution of productive technology. Since improved security would allow a greater proportion of research and devel* opment expenditures to be devoted to nonmilitary goals, it would stimulate market-oriented technological innovation, thus enhancing the growth of total factor productivity.
    Thus the Rand study comports with the latter caveat to the IMF study by analyzing not only the gains of monetary reallocation, but also the economic benefits of international security and the losses associated with retrenchment. I understand the facts contradict a very popular narrative about the big bad “military industrial complex,” but reality is not subject to political preference.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; December 23, 2020 at 11:01 AM.
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    @Excharch

    Could you not have two more weak argument for got stagflation made up panic.

    Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...21-11604274618

    This one is beyond funny

    "During June, July and August, the CPI rose at a 6.3% annual pace as compared with the prices the prior three months. In September, inflation calmed down to a 2.5% pace"

    2020


    J 2.5
    F 2.3
    M 1.5
    A 0.3
    M 0.1
    J 0.6
    J 1.0
    A 1.3
    S 1.4
    O 1.2
    N 1.2

    https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atla...l_us_table.htm


    Yep just runaway inflation. As far as I can the hack move you fail to notice is miss repenting the change from March actual .01 % to June .06% as a percentage so imply an actual month CPI of 6% which is false and of course ignoring it promptly returning to a lower number
    Last edited by conon394; December 23, 2020 at 11:49 AM.
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Let's keep in mind Eisenhower's farewell address, known for its warnings about the growing power of the military-industrial complex,



    Another warning in there:
    "we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

  19. #199
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Another warning in there:
    "we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
    Yes. More exactly, in latu sensu, I would say that the public policy is captive of the economic sphere.

    China today is closer to Britain in the 19th century. In fact, there is a certain degree of hypocrisy in the way how we westerns/ the west looks at at China.What we are seeing now in China is a process similar to the one we had during the Industrial revolution.They are doing we did in the 19th century.
    We also tend to associate liberalism with democracy, and that’s a mistake, historically. What we have today is not a true democracy. What we have are mountains of debt and mountains of idle cash failing to cancel each other out the normal operation of markets. In consequence, the result is stagnant wages, unemployed people,more than a quarter of 25 to 45 years old in our western countries (Europe, Japan, America).The decline in wealth leads to lower aggregate demand and inequality matters for poverty. All this idle cash should be used to improve lives.

    The ancient Greek democracy, albeit excluding some groups (women, migrants, and slaves, of course), even today gives us a shining example- and that was the inclusion of the working poor in the political process. They acquired the rights to political judgments that were afforded equal weight in the decision making of the Athenian state. The Athenian democracy soon disappeared, in fact our liberal democracies don’t have their roots in Athenas.
    The roots are in the Magna carta, in the 1688 revolution, and indeed in the American constitution. The Athenian democracy was empowering the poor, our liberal democracies are founded- as already said- in a charter for masters, the Magna carta tradition.
    Liberal democracy was born when it became possible to separate fully the political sphere from the economic sphere, leaving the economic sphere a completely democracy-free zone. What we see today is the economic sphere colonizing the political sphere, almost completely devouring its power.

    Its also true that we cant not dispense a true democracy, and that’s were, in my opinion, the CCP is wrong. And yes, we can also dispense illiberal democracies and authoritarian, populist regimes.
    But it must be said that nowdays, our western liberal democracy-as it is today- is almost powerless, confined to the political sphere. For example, in Europe, particularly in Greece- we all remember well- in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007/8 the Greeks were told that the nations’s democratic process , the Greek elections, could not be allowed to interfere with economic policies that were being implemented in the country.
    In short, history teaches that political power has migrated from the political to the economic sphere, and politicans and people are relatively powerless. To make it worse, psichology and research teaches that feeling powerless can lead people to support systems that disadvantage them.
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    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Exarch View Post
    You could also say that material standards of living have improved for all americans irrespective of class or race since the 70s, and yet african americans are overwhelmingly represented in prisons and police murder statistics, so much so that it has created a mass social movement that could turn to Revolution: Black Lives Matter.

    If social conditions for african americans had truly improved to be on par with white americans, there would be no need for BLM or the countless murders of african american 'joggers' that have now become as commonplace as mobile phone footage.
    Economic conditions are rather meaningless in the absence of racial equality. The fact that civil rights and economic conditions have massively improved, doesn't mean there aren't ways to go and that African Americans shouldn't continue their activism.

    Gonna have to stop you right there, bub cuz you're just repeating anglo media propaganda talking points as opposed to factual information. Ever wonder why all western media source all their information from the same source? Adrian Zenz? The christian fundamentalist who believes homosexuals are to burn in hell?
    Why would observers from islamic nations who have visited xinjiang praised the CCP's handling of radicals and yet the US refuses, even upon invitation to visit Xinjiang and check out these vocation centres?

    If anything, the Chinese Communist Party is humanity's last and best hope for rising above the petty squabbles of Holy Terra; Anglo America and the Five Eyes lack the human and technological capital for humanity to become an interstellar species.
    So to make it clear, you're denying the existing of Chinese Uighur camps? And if you aren't, are you claiming they are humane and appropriate?

    For reference, Market Watch will publish just about anything, regardless of how credible it is, but to address the articles in question;

    First, the majority of unemployment isn't structural, it's cyclical. In fact, the article even goes through the hassle of explaining how the unemployment was caused by the economic downturn, rather than changes in the composition of the economy. Second, the cited inflation under section "Jekyll and Hyde" is a fundamental misinterpretation of the data. The only large changes in CPI are under "Energy" according to the official BLS figures that the article linked. The reason for those large numbers, is because before July and August, energy prices actually heavily dropped and oil even went into negative prices. High CPI changes in July and August reflect a stabilization of prices, rather than a massive change in the Supply/Demand equilibrium.
    Third, "Skilled Workers Needed" describes what has already been the case for years. New Economy jobs are in far higher demand than Old Economy jobs. That's just as true in 2020 as it was in 2008, you know, during the other big recession.

    As for the Bloomberg article Exarch, I'll go ahead and paste its last section;



    An annual reminder that it wasn't actually Weimar hyperinflation that brought Hitler to power, but the devastating deflation that was incredibly destructive.

    A Syrian adoptee who was raised as an anglo white american, and entering the privileged class of the apartheid caste system of america.


    A member of the white privileged class in the apartheid caste system of america.


    A member of the white privileged class in the apartheid caste system of america.
    Not sure what your point here is. If you're trying to tell me that various ethnicities and nationalities can come to America, become incredibly successful, and be accepted into the "anglo american privileged class" on the back of their achievements and contributions, that's a powerful point towards United States. Our only true religion is money, and intellectual property is always the most lucrative product.

    Only if the US can continue to attract asian talent and innovation; Silicon Valley is practically run by asian engineers.
    Okay, so? We don't have any issue attracting such talent.

    What taiwan wants doesn't matter; what decides the matter is force of arms and power and as time goes by, the power balance shifts ever more towards the PRC.

    Already, American policymakers are preparing for the political fallout for not fighting for taiwan when the moment comes.
    This is patently false owing to the fact that the PRC has always had the strength to forcibly invade Taiwan. They haven't, because nobody wants to rule a pile of ashes.

    Americans died for muslims in Iraq? Maybe that's why Iraqis love anglo americans and will willingly fight and die for anglo america then eh?

    Maybe this is what anglo american propaganda tells its people to get them to sign up to foreign wars to become future applicants for limb prosthetics and opioids.
    There's a reason why both Iraq and Afghanistan like having US bases and troops on their soil. We aren't holding either country at gunpoint.

    Chinese are willing to kill to recover taiwan; are anglo americans prepared to lose Hawaii, Alaska and Australia for taiwan?

    the anglo american power structure like to milk the taiwan issue for pork barreling for their donors (hundred million dollars for a single missile!) but have proven to lack the cojones to start a war with China.
    I'll believe it when I see it. As it stands right now, China is desperately trying to sweet talk everyone, rather than threatening anything.

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