View Poll Results: In the broadest of terms, which of the following most closely describes your geopolitical expectations for the post-US world order?

Voters
45. You may not vote on this poll
  • A truly multipolar reorientation of geopolitics with few or no globally dominant “great powers.”

    10 22.22%
  • A division of the world into “spheres of influence” dominated by authoritarian powers (China, Russia, Iran, for example)

    11 24.44%
  • The US will remain globally dominant thanks to King Dollar and its sheer size, even if politically or militarily weaker relative to its turn of the century peak.

    14 31.11%
  • The EU will pull itself together, emerge from the US’ shadow, neutralize Russian interests on its doorstep, and Europe will once again carry the torch of the liberal/western world order.

    3 6.67%
  • Other (please explain)

    7 15.56%
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Thread: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

  1. #141

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Consider taking your own advice. Since you began and ended the discussion as a debate, it follows that my position is affirmative, detailed and fully sourced, whereas you began the discussion from the explicitly negative view in response to my position, rather than in affirmation of long term stagnation concerns. That’s obviously not problematic, but you’ve yet to substantiate anything that is mutually exclusive to my position, as I’ve explained in response to each of your various avenues of ostensible criticism.
    This faux indignationis really getting old. I've addressed your points, and you're annoyed that you have to keep revisiting your argument as it gets debunked over and over again.

    For example, your comments about supply and low demand were addressed in post 114, commodity prices and deflation in post 119, the last substantive post in our original discussion. I again summarized my position in post 128, and I addressed your comparison to 2008 directly in post 130, almost verbatim from existing source material.
    Your "rebuttal" consisted of suggesting that there is a risk of a supply shock which could trigger inflation. This was thoroughly debunked by several facts. First, oil prices are negative and are likely to remain low for a long time. This is due to several things. First, the supply of oil has already exceeded demand for quite some time now. That, couple with current low demand due to lockdown measures, and future low demand to the economic damage caused by lockdown measures, (businesses going out of business for example), is unlikely to budge prices up. This behavior is mirrored in other commodity markets, which was backed up by a link to a World Bank page tracking these goods.

    Your comments about supply shocks were also addressed. As mentioned before, the glut in supply is due to lockdown measures, not because COVID-19 has killed off many people. Or because machinery broke down. Or because a hurricane has devastated coastal states. In other words, as the challenges of the pandemic solved, there will not be constraints on the supply. There aren't any serious underlying issues, it's all about the lockdown and COVID-19.

    Again, your post 119 doesn't support your point as it emphasizes that both demand and supply curves fell. The article you linked doesn't support your theory of possible stagflation. Stagflation would require the supply curve to start shifting inward, a topic the article offers no commentary on.

    You may continue to deny all this I suppose, but that is the sum total of your “critique,” which leaves no room for further discussion, as I said in post 123. If you have something new you’d like to address, go ahead. In the interim, I’ve repeated myself as much as any good faith observance of forum rules might allow.
    You can repeat yourself but you haven't addressed the main point. There is no inherent reason to believe that there is a significant risk of stagflation, and the economic data reflects that. To visualize, we moved from point E' to point E.



    Your suggestion now, is that the supply curve will shift further inward, without any explanation for why it would do so.

  2. #142

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    This faux indignationis really getting old. I've addressed your points, and you're annoyed that you have to keep revisiting your argument as it gets debunked over and over again.
    More projection on your part. If you don’t have an argument it’s best not to start one.
    Your "rebuttal" consisted of suggesting that there is a risk of a supply shock which could trigger inflation. This was thoroughly debunked by several facts. First, oil prices are negative and are likely to remain low for a long time.

    This behavior is mirrored in other commodity markets, which was backed up by a link to a World Bank page tracking these goods.
    Post 119:
    Meanwhile, as all too usual in a crisis, international cooperation has given way to national sauve qui peut. What this represents is a self-imposed supply shock of immense magnitude. Such a supply shock reduces output and raises prices. Nor is the demand from this period entirely recoverable. Particularly when it comes to services, some of the consumption is permanently lost.

    In the short run, the inflationary consequences of this massive adverse supply shock may be counter-balanced by a collapse in non-food commodity prices, much aggravated by the disastrously timed oil war. It will also be matched by the commensurate decline in demand, some voluntary, some enforced, some permanent, some simply delayed. In any case, at a time when the basket of goods and services that we buy has so suddenly been distorted out of all recognition, it will become almost impossible over the next few months to put together sensible and meaningful data for CPI, RPI, or any other inflation series.

    But what will then happen as the lockdown gets lifted and recovery ensues, following a period of massive fiscal and monetary expansion (Baldwin and Weder di Mauro 2020)? The answer, as in the aftermath of wars, will be a surge in inflation....

    https://voxeu.org/article/future-imp...er-coronavirus
    Post 112:
    What will come in the aftermath of coronavirus for economy? I’d worry about stagflation

    Inflation was well contained up until the middle of last year, with consumer prices rising below 2% in January 2019 and giving the Fed room to pause hiking interest rates. However, CPI inflation has risen steadily over the past six months, from an annual rate of under 2% to nearly 2.5%. Similarly, core CPI, which removes the more volatile food and energy prices, bottomed out in mid-2019 and is now running consistently above the 2% Fed target rate. Over this same period, the Fed has cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, and this was before anyone had ever heard of the coronavirus.

    The coronavirus crisis has created a perfect storm. In addition to the health consequences and human costs, it is leading to a severe economic crisis. On the one hand, by preventing people from going to work, causing them to be ill and disrupting supply chains, it is a huge shock to productivity. Similar to an oil price shock or a natural disaster, the limited supply of labor and production will create inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the need for social distancing has led to the cancellation of large events, ravaged the travel industry, and closed businesses, restaurants, and shopping centers, leading to a large negative demand shock.

    The combination of both shocks will rapidly increase the unemployment rate and trigger a large economic recession. However, the decline of both demand and supply means that we should not expect to see the falling prices and deflation that occurred during the Great Recession and Great Depression.

    While the benefits of cutting a federal funds rate already close to zero is limited, there will be risks associated with the Fed’s policy in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. In particular, when containment is achieved, production will still be restrained by those infected and unable to work and by those displaced by unemployment and struggling to find other jobs that may not fit their qualifications. However, there will be a surge in demand as fear abates, customers return to shopping centers and restaurants, and businesses and consumers look to borrow at historically low interest rates. Ultimately, the imbalance will create a lopsided recovery with slow output growth with accelerating prices and inflation; in other words, stagflation.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what...agflation.html
    You’re the one ostensibly attempting rebuttal of the above affirmative position vis a vis stagflation risk. Now, you can obviously disagree with the above assessments to whatever extent you like, or continue to call them absurd, but the trends you account for do not preclude nor debunk them, and certainly not to any extent that would establish categorical dismissal based on your appeal to absurdity. Accordingly:
    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain
    Your comments about supply shocks were also addressed. As mentioned before, the glut in supply is due to lockdown measures, not because COVID-19 has killed off many people. Or because machinery broke down. Or because a hurricane has devastated coastal states. In other words, as the challenges of the pandemic solved, there will not be constraints on the supply. There aren't any serious underlying issues, it's all about the lockdown and COVID-19.

    Again, your post 119 doesn't support your point as it emphasizes that both demand and supply curves fell. The article you linked doesn't support your theory of possible stagflation. Stagflation would require the supply curve to start shifting inward, a topic the article offers no commentary on.

    You can repeat yourself but you haven't addressed the main point. There is no inherent reason to believe that there is a significant risk of stagflation, and the economic data reflects that. To visualize, we moved from point E' to point E.

    Your suggestion now, is that the supply curve will shift further inward, without any explanation for why it would do so.
    Your assertions here were false dichotomies the first time you made them, and still are no matter how many times you demand concession to them. Supply was addressed directly from the source material. Mere denial of underlying issues is not a rebuttal. As indicated 20-30 posts ago, none of what you’ve pointed out here precludes stagflation risk.

    Pre-virus supply constraints:
    Post 114:
    Top strategists warn about stagflation risk as China trade tensions remain

    While not yet sounding an alarm, top strategists at BlackRock are starting to worry about the possibility of U.S. stagflation — high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand.

    Despite a recent armistice between the U.S. and China on the trade war, BII strategists believe the tensions are underpinned by "structural" issues, reducing the likelihood of a meaningful deal and keeping the trade war brewing for some time.
    * "U.S. growth could fall materially below trend in coming quarters," Pyle says. And with China slowing and Europe struggling, the U.S. is "unlikely to get much help from the rest of the world."
    The bottom line: "Trade tensions pose the risk of slowing growth and rising inflation — a potential threat to stock and bond markets alike."
    https://www.axios.com/stagflation-in...d18c14b8f.html
    Early virus supply constraints:
    Post 114:
    "Even if the virus does not turn into a pandemic, to think it isn't going to impact what's going on in the world is irrational," Scott Minerd, global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, wrote in a research note last week. "The impact of all this on corporate profits and free cash flow will be dramatic."

    "The biggest problem is lack of workers as they are subjected to travel restrictions and quarantines," Ker Gibbs, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, said in a statement earlier this week, noting that "most factories have a severe shortage of workers, even after they are allowed to open."

    "This is going to have a severe impact on global supply chains that is only beginning to show up," he said.

    "Many firms may be in a better position to withstand some short-term supply chain disruptions," Vitner said, pointing to inventory surpluses that some companies built up to cushion against last year's U.S.-China trade tension. "At the end of the day, though, a critical part is a critical part. If you're only impacted in a small way, that still could have a significant impact."

    https://www.usnews.com/news/the-repo...he-coronavirus
    Current/future supply constraints:
    Post 119:
    The lion’s share of the 2008 collapse was driven by a massive demand shock which was in the first instance caused by the wait-and-see reaction.2 At first, the supply sides of most economies were unscathed. This is a key difference to today’s shock, so it’s worth taking a closer look.

    In today’s COVID Crisis, we have all the makings of the 2008-2009 demand side shock, but on top of that we have massive, supply-side shocks across most sectors of most major economies. Taking just the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, and Italy, the stricken economies account for 60% of world supply and demand (GDP), 65% of world manufacturing, and 41% of world manufacturing exports.

    Supply-chain contagion was not a major amplifier of the 2009-08 trade catastrophe since the demand shock back then was globally synchronised; producers everywhere shut down together. This time, the fact that the pandemic first struck ‘Factor Asia’, then struck ‘Factory Europe’, and then struck ‘Factory North America’ is creating a separate cause of collapse (Baldwin 2020). Manufacturing sectors in less-affected nations are finding it harder and/or more expensive to acquire the necessary imported industrial inputs from the hard-hit nations, and subsequently from each other.

    https://voxeu.org/article/greater-trade-collapse-2020
    Post 128:
    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Precisely. As discussed earlier, hyperinflation isn’t a threat to the US so much as stagflation. You’re correct to assume some natural recovery in aggregate supply and demand going forward. To assert a “Japanification” or stagnation thesis is to assume supply either will recover more quickly than demand, or that demand simply will not recover to the extent supply will at all.

    However, the collapse of world trade and the rise in production costs, actual if not nominal, points to systemic supply constraints that will transcend the corresponding drop in aggregate demand, and weigh on recovery. Low demand doesn’t preclude this. It need only recover faster/more robustly than supply, which is more likely than the opposite scenario under the circumstances, independently of the shape of recovery (U, V, J, etc). Short term deflationary impacts are a given, and I could be wrong in the medium to long term of course. That said, to dismiss potential effects of the increased money supply based on low demand or short term price movement doesn’t logically follow from its own premise.
    Accordingly:
    Fed Vice Chair Clarida says more support may be needed, but economy to rebound next quarter

    “Our policies we think will be very important in making sure that the rebound will be as robust as possible. We’re in a period of some very, very, very hard and difficult data that we’ve just not seen for the economy in our lifetimes, that’s for sure,” Clarida said.

    But a third-quarter rebound “is one possibility. That is personally my baseline forecast,” he added.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/fed-...d-quarter.html
    Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America, said on Sunday that analysts at his financial institution do not expect the economy to rebound to the level it was at prior to the coronavirus pandemic until late in 2021

    "Our estimates, our experts think it's late next year when the economy gets back to the same size it was prior to this," the bank CEO explained. He noted that there are already some signs that certain businesses are starting to come back and spending has increased.

    "That actually provides some hope that as the economy opens up in pieces and safely, you'll see that consumer spending continue to grow, which will help fuel the U.S. economy," Moynihan said. He suggested that the efforts from Congress to shore-up unemployment benefits, provide stimulus checks to most Americns, and offer assistance to struggling businesses appears to have had a positive impact.

    But an economic analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which was published on Friday, suggested that unemployment could remain close to 10 percent by the end of 2021. The report projected that unemployment is currently close to 14 percent and will rise to 16 percent.

    To put that in perspective, during the peak of the Great Recession, unemployment rose to a high of 9.9 percent in 2009. Other economic experts have projected that unemployment could rise substantially higher, with some even suggesting it could hit 30 percent. The highest level of unemployment recorded in U.S. history came during the Great Depression, when it rose to 24.9 percent in 1933.

    https://www.newsweek.com/bank-americ...t-year-1500279
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 06, 2020 at 06:14 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  3. #143

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Post 119:
    This isn't a strong argument to support your point.

    "Meanwhile, as all too usual in a crisis, international cooperation has given way to national sauve qui peut. What this represents is a self-imposed supply shock of immense magnitude. Such a supply shock reduces output and raises prices. Nor is the demand from this period entirely recoverable. Particularly when it comes to services, some of the consumption is permanently lost."

    "In the short run, the inflationary consequences of this massive adverse supply shock may be counter-balanced by a collapse in non-food commodity prices, much aggravated by the disastrously timed oil war. It will also be matched by the commensurate decline in demand, some voluntary, some enforced, some permanent, some simply delayed. In any case, at a time when the basket of goods and services that we buy has so suddenly been distorted out of all recognition, it will become almost impossible over the next few months to put together sensible and meaningful data for CPI, RPI, or any other inflation series."


    This is the following scenario.



    We've moved from point A to point B due to demand and supply shock from the virus/lockdown.

    "But what will then happen as the lockdown gets lifted and recovery ensues, following a period of massive fiscal and monetary expansion (Baldwin and Weder di Mauro 2020)? The answer, as in the aftermath of wars, will be a surge in inflation...."



    And that's after fiscal and monetary expansion. Demand and Supply recovers, we've moved from point B to point C. Prices rise, hence inflation, but quantity has also increased, thus an increase in real GDP. That's not stagflation, that's economic expansion. The scale of inflation will depend on how fast supply increases. So again, this article doesn't support your warnings of stagflation.

    Post 112:

    You’re the one ostensibly attempting rebuttal of the above affirmative position vis a vis stagflation risk. Now, you can obviously disagree with the above assessments to whatever extent you like, or continue to call them absurd, but the trends you account for do not preclude nor debunk them, and certainly not to any extent that would establish categorical dismissal based on your appeal to absurdity. Accordingly:

    Your assertions here were false dichotomies the first time you made them, and still are no matter how many times you demand concession to them. Supply was addressed directly from the source material. Mere denial of underlying issues is not a rebuttal. As indicated 20-30 posts ago, none of what you’ve pointed out here precludes stagflation risk.
    You have yet to substantiate "evidence" for stagflation, let alone fending off my rebuttal and my evidence that shows the contrary.

    Pre-virus supply constraints:
    Post 114:
    This is not evidence. This is essentially an opinion from one of the world's largest investment firms and none of what they say makes any sense, especially in the context of September. For example,

    "Mike Pyle, chief investment strategist for the BlackRock Investment Institute, sees inflation as set to pick up "thanks to more tariffs and faster wage growth in the face of a tight labor market," he says in a note to clients."

    And wage growth accelerated due to full employment. This is anathema to stagflation risks. The same can be said of the trade war. That's not a supply shock, an unexpected tariff would be a supply shock, but the posturing of this White House and trade policy of the last two years have signaled the obvious to the entire economy. Expectations for possible tariffs and existing tariffs area already priced into the supply. As we've seen over the last two years, neither inflation nor CPI has been significantly affected by the trade war. This is due to the limited scope of the tariffs and the market pricing expectations in.


    Early virus supply constraints:
    Post 114:

    Current/future supply constraints:
    Post 119:

    Post 128:
    I've been over this. Repeatedly. Demand is unlikely to be high post corona-virus due to the economic damage incurred. Moreover, there is little evidence that there were supply constraints pre-corona as I've already mentioned. And as the article you yourself linked, the massive shift in Aggregate Supply has been more than offset by the massive drop in Aggregate Demand. This is why the supply shock post in 2008, produced next to no inflation despite trillions being pumped into the money supply.

    As I've said before, and I'll repeat it for emphasis, if you want to make a case that there is a credible stagflation risk you have to show us the evidence on why the supply is not going to recover faster than demand.


    Accordingly:
    Accordingly what? Neither article offers prognosis or possibility of high inflation. When the risk is actually significant, and possible, you'll hear about it.

  4. #144

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    This isn't a strong argument to support your point.

    So again, this article doesn't support your warnings of stagflation.

    You have yet to substantiate "evidence" for stagflation, let alone fending off my rebuttal and my evidence that shows the contrary.

    This is not evidence. This is essentially an opinion from one of the world's largest investment firms and none of what they say makes any sense, especially in the context of September. For example,

    "Mike Pyle, chief investment strategist for the BlackRock Investment Institute, sees inflation as set to pick up "thanks to more tariffs and faster wage growth in the face of a tight labor market," he says in a note to clients."

    And wage growth accelerated due to full employment. This is anathema to stagflation risks. The same can be said of the trade war. That's not a supply shock, an unexpected tariff would be a supply shock, but the posturing of this White House and trade policy of the last two years have signaled the obvious to the entire economy. Expectations for possible tariffs and existing tariffs area already priced into the supply. As we've seen over the last two years, neither inflation nor CPI has been significantly affected by the trade war. This is due to the limited scope of the tariffs and the market pricing expectations in.

    I've been over this. Repeatedly. Demand is unlikely to be high post corona-virus due to the economic damage incurred. Moreover, there is little evidence that there were supply constraints pre-corona as I've already mentioned. And as the article you yourself linked, the massive shift in Aggregate Supply has been more than offset by the massive drop in Aggregate Demand. This is why the supply shock post in 2008, produced next to no inflation despite trillions being pumped into the money supply.

    As I've said before, and I'll repeat it for emphasis, if you want to make a case that there is a credible stagflation risk you have to show us the evidence on why the supply is not going to recover faster than demand.

    Accordingly what? Neither article offers prognosis or possibility of high inflation. When the risk is actually significant, and possible, you'll hear about it.
    Post 119,142:
    However, warnings about inflation were also sounded when quantitative easing (QE) was launched in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. Those fears weren’t realised, why should they be any more real now? For three reasons. First, the design of QE meant that most of the injections remained within the banking system in the form of excess reserves. They were never able to filter through to broader aggregates of money which matter for inflation. Today’s policy measures are injecting cash flows that will directly raise the broader measures of money. The second reason is the speed with which the global economy could recover to the level of output just before the outbreak. The stronger the recovery, the more these policy injections will look procyclical. Third, China’s role in the global economy has now changed from being an exporter of deflation to a more neutral one now and increasingly inflationary into the future.

    What will the response of the authorities then be? First, and foremost, they will claim that this is a temporary, and once-for-all blip. Second, the monetary authorities will state that this is a, quite desirable, counterbalance to the years of prior undershooting of targets, entirely consistent with average inflation or price-level targeting. Third, the disruption will have been so great that it will take time to bring unemployment back down towards 2019 levels and large swathes of industry (airlines, cruise ships, hotels, etc.) may still be in difficulties. Does it make any sense, having propped up industry in such a widespread manner in 2020, to let much of that same industry go to the wall in 2021 as a result to rising interest rates and fiscal retrenchment? In any case, the borrowing lobby (government, industry, those with mortgages) is much more politically powerful than the savings lobby.

    Next time, can we reform capitalism so that we do not encourage excessive debt expansion every time that our economy hits a soft spot?

    https://voxeu.org/article/future-imp...er-coronavirus
    This is entirely consistent with the “lopsided recovery” stagflation risk prognosis amid monetary expansion, stagnant demand, high unemployment, and the supply constraints of collapsing world trade, your continued denials notwithstanding. I’ve repeated myself enough times. Your repeated claims here regarding my position as it relates to the source material are nothing short of bald faced lies at this point. Not only that, you continue to assert that the sources don’t support my point by deliberately ignoring, misconstruing and lying about them to fit your false dichotomies, other times attacking their credibility, all so that you don’t have to “rebut” what they actually indicate. Yet another “de-facto concession” on your part.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 07, 2020 at 10:06 AM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  5. #145

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Post 119,142:

    This is entirely consistent with the “lopsided recovery” stagflation risk prognosis amid monetary expansion, stagnant demand, high unemployment,
    Nonsensical, as a lopsided recovery implies lower aggregate demand. Lower aggregate demand suppresses expansion the aggregate supply of the money supply in the short-term. They can Nostradamus high inflation all they want, but the article offers little evidence besides professional opinion. Opposing professional opinion that's just as easily sourced from Economists more prominent and more accomplished.

    and the supply constraints of collapsing world trade, your continued denials notwithstanding.
    The same "collapsing world trade" that caused massive inflation in 2009, I'm sure.

    I’ve repeated myself enough times. Your repeated claims here regarding my position as it relates to the source material are nothing short of bald faced lies at this point. Not only that, you continue to assert that the sources don’t support my point by deliberately ignoring, misconstruing and lying about them to fit your false dichotomies, other times attacking their credibility, all so that you don’t have to “rebut” what they actually indicate. Yet another “de-facto concession” on your part.
    I'll echo what I've said earlier. Your indignation does you no favors, neither does your earlier claim that I'm "projecting". On the contrary, I'm happy to revisit your points as many times as you wish, without complaining about having to repeat myself.

    Your article on supply constraints due to collapsing world trade hold little water, as the decline in world trade in 2009, and in real time right now, has not coincided in either, a rise in US CPI, nor USD exchange rates. Nor have any of your claims about stagflation been corroborated by economic data. Considering that your prediction is that aggregate demand will recover faster than aggregate supply, the quantity of data points you need to bring up, is considerably high.

  6. #146

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    Nonsensical, as a lopsided recovery implies lower aggregate demand. Lower aggregate demand suppresses expansion the aggregate supply of the money supply in the short-term. They can Nostradamus high inflation all they want, but the article offers little evidence besides professional opinion. Opposing professional opinion that's just as easily sourced from Economists more prominent and more accomplished.

    The same "collapsing world trade" that caused massive inflation in 2009, I'm sure.

    I'll echo what I've said earlier. Your indignation does you no favors, neither does your earlier claim that I'm "projecting". On the contrary, I'm happy to revisit your points as many times as you wish, without complaining about having to repeat myself.

    Your article on supply constraints due to collapsing world trade hold little water, as the decline in world trade in 2009, and in real time right now, has not coincided in either, a rise in US CPI, nor USD exchange rates. Nor have any of your claims about stagflation been corroborated by economic data. Considering that your prediction is that aggregate demand will recover faster than aggregate supply, the quantity of data points you need to bring up, is considerably high.
    Again, arguing with the source material on the grounds it doesn’t conflate with your view is not a rebuttal. No one has denied that you disagree. Demanding that I revisit presented evidence for stagflation risk ad infinitum as a condition of good faith argumentation requires that your appeal to absurdity as an argument against stagflation risk is likewise based on evidence. So far, it isn’t. You can continue to insist it is, or that there’s no evidence for stagflation risk, and dismiss the evidence presented for any reason you wish. Nevertheless, your perennial claim to have identified trends preclusive of stagflation concerns is just plain false, not indicative of “faux indignation” on my part for having called it false.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  7. #147

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order




  8. #148

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Again, arguing with the source material on the grounds it doesn’t conflate with your view is not a rebuttal. No one has denied that you disagree.
    It is when some of the source material consists entirely of opinion. Professional opinion, but opinion nonetheless. That's not evidence, especially when I can just as easily find professional opinion arguing against inflation hawks.

    Demanding that I revisit presented evidence for stagflation risk ad infinitum as a condition of good faith argumentation requires that your appeal to absurdity as an argument against stagflation risk is likewise based on evidence.
    My argument wasn't an "appeal to absurdity". My argument was pointing out current low inflation despite massive monetary expansion, pointing out the massive drop in commodity prices, pointing out that supply issues are COVID related, rather than underlying issues that preceded the pandemic, and that demand isn't likely to recover quickly due to massive economic damage. All of those factors are likely to suppress inflation in the short-medium term, AKA the next 12 months. Your challenge lies in proving that there are significant inflation risks within or beyond that time span, you've failed to do so.

    So far, it isn’t. You can continue to insist it is, or that there’s no evidence for stagflation risk, and dismiss the evidence presented for any reason you wish. Nevertheless, your perennial claim to have identified trends preclusive of stagflation concerns is just plain false, not indicative of “faux indignation” on my part for having called it false.
    Lack of inflation is by definition preclsuive as stagflation requires high inflation. If you don't have reliable data points that suggest it, then you don't have proof.

  9. #149

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    It is when some of the source material consists entirely of opinion. Professional opinion, but opinion nonetheless. That's not evidence, especially when I can just as easily find professional opinion arguing against inflation hawks.
    Again, you haven’t rebutted any matters of opinion expressed in the source material, professional or otherwise. Neither is anything you’ve asserted so far indicative of their alleged “absurdity,” as you’ve referred to it, particularly when those same opinions fully account for the trends you claim preclude them.
    My argument wasn't an "appeal to absurdity". My argument was pointing out current low inflation despite massive monetary expansion, pointing out the massive drop in commodity prices, pointing out that supply issues are COVID related, rather than underlying issues that preceded the pandemic, and that demand isn't likely to recover quickly due to massive economic damage. All of those factors are likely to suppress inflation in the short-medium term, AKA the next 12 months. Your challenge lies in proving that there are significant inflation risks within or beyond that time span, you've failed to do so.
    As you’ve shown repeatedly, the actual trends you’ve observed do not preclude post-lockdown stagflation risk. Claims like these:
    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain
    Aggregate supply does not have underlying issues.

    The information you’ve cited doesn’t support your point.
    are objectively inaccurate. No one is denying you’ve made specific assertions and have opinions about them. You’re challenging my affirmative position on the negative basis that stagflation concerns are inherently absurd.
    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain
    The suggestion that there is a stagflation risk is almost absurd.
    Lack of inflation is by definition preclsuive as stagflation requires high inflation. If you don't have reliable data points that suggest it, then you don't have proof.
    Demonstrable monetary and supply constraint pressures amid low growth, and now high unemployment and stagnant demand, were objectively identified and explained throughout the source material, indicating stagflation risk. Denial of the evidence is not a lack of it on my part, any more than is your disagreement with the conclusions drawn.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 08, 2020 at 10:47 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  10. #150

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Again, you haven’t rebutted any matters of opinion expressed in the source material, professional or otherwise. Neither is anything you’ve asserted so far indicative of their alleged “absurdity,” as you’ve referred to it, particularly when those same opinions fully account for the trends you claim preclude them.
    This is simply a statement that says, "You have not convinced me".

    As you’ve shown repeatedly, the actual trends you’ve observed do not preclude post-lockdown stagflation risk. Claims like these:

    are objectively inaccurate. No one is denying you’ve made specific assertions and have opinions about them. You’re challenging my affirmative position on the negative basis that stagflation concerns are inherently absurd.
    I am challenging your assertion on the basis that to get stagflation, one would have to experience inflation. There is no inflation, and as I've shown multiple times, the trends do not indicate that there will be future inflation. If you're suspecting that aggregate demand will recover faster than aggregate supply, you will have to show me why and what numbers support it. You have not done so.

    Demonstrable monetary and supply constraint pressures amid low growth, and now high unemployment and stagnant demand, were objectively identified and explained throughout the source material, indicating stagflation risk. Denial of the evidence is not a lack of it on my part, any more than is your disagreement with the conclusions drawn.
    Sluggish supply and sluggish means inflation will be low. In order for inflation to appear, demand would have to rise faster than supply. You have not identified why that would happen.

  11. #151

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    This is simply a statement that says, "You have not convinced me".



    I am challenging your assertion on the basis that to get stagflation, one would have to experience inflation. There is no inflation, and as I've shown multiple times, the trends do not indicate that there will be future inflation. If you're suspecting that aggregate demand will recover faster than aggregate supply, you will have to show me why and what numbers support it. You have not done so.



    Sluggish supply and sluggish means inflation will be low. In order for inflation to appear, demand would have to rise faster than supply. You have not identified why that would happen.
    Your denials here are objectively and observably untrue. If you’d like to continue the discussion, you can begin with something that hasn’t already been addressed umpteen times.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  12. #152

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Your denials here are objectively and observably untrue. If you’d like to continue the discussion, you can begin with something that hasn’t already been addressed umpteen times.
    What would cause inflation to rise to the level of stagflation?

  13. #153

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    A glimpse at a post-US future:

    China's Changing of International Norms Could Lead to Chaos

    It takes a lot of horror to embolden protest in China. Yet the CCP’s mismanagement of past disasters has sometimes been so egregious as to lead aggrieved citizens to take to the streets. The regime’s handling of the 2003 SARS outbreak and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake rose to that level, although the resulting protests were limited and easily stifled. But another CCP misadventure gave the world a particularly tragic demonstration of how Beijing’s suppression of rights could create serious health risks that would spread beyond China’s borders.

    In 2005, a television station aired dairy worker Jiang Weisuo’s concerns about his company adding unauthorized substances to its infant milk formula. Chinese food safety officials said they could not find evidence of wrongdoing but three years later a urologist in a pediatric hospital flagged the unusual appearance of kidney stones in children.

    That same month, July 2008, a journalist at China’s Southern Weekend newspaper reported that infants had been sickened by baby formula. That report was promptly suppressed by authorities, due to the Beijing Olympics which were to be held in August.
    The weekly’s editor, Fu, later confessed that the CCP had ordered the media to report only positive news and declared the topic of food safety to be off-limits. “We couldn’t do any investigation on an issue like this, at that time, because of the need to be ‘harmonious,’” Fu wrote.

    By the time another Chinese reporter broke the news about the dangerous product on September 11, an estimated three hundred thousand babies had been sickened and fifty-four thousand had been hospitalized. Six ultimately died.

    Zhao Lianhai, a journalist whose own son was sickened, began publicly questioning the safety of the widely distributed Sanlu milk formula. He organized other angry parents through a website called “Kidney Stone Babies” but official retribution was swift. He was detained and ultimately sentenced to two and a half years in prison on charges of “disturbing social order,” “gathering illegally,” holding up signs and speaking to reporters.
    Other parents were detained to prevent them from holding a press conference, and some were sent to labor camps. Authorities harassed their lawyers, threatening them with professional discipline, and ordered courts not to hear cases from the parents. Ultimately, the CCP’s censorship of dissent stifled the protests.

    This is standard operating procedure for a totalitarian regime. It’s captured well in the Chinese adage: “Kill the chicken to scare the monkey.” By severely punishing small actors—a few journalists, some parents and their advocates—the government intimidated the masses, preventing additional criticism and protests.

    The WHO called the scandal “a large-scale intentional activity to deceive consumers for simple, basic, short-term profits.” But with this denunciation, the WHO followed the lead of the Chinese government. It focused solely on the milk producers’ culpability, without examining Beijing’s interference in suppressing critical information.

    But, by quashing freedom inside China—and in the absence of a serious investigation from the UN—the CCP never faced accountability for its role in the tainted formula scandal. Unfortunately, it was no “one-off.” Stories of tainted pet food, tainted eggs, tainted toothpaste, and lead-painted toys emerged both before and after the 2008 scandal. But nothing so clearly revealed the critical connection between freedom of speech, government censorship, and public health as the baby formula scandal did. That is, until the coronavirus.

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature...d-chaos-155016
    Over and over and over again.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  14. #154

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Xi Jinping tells Chinese army to step up combat readiness as budget rise is blamed on security threats

    The Chinese army must step up combat readiness, Chinese President Xi Jinping has said, as the country increases defence spending to tackle “security threats from Taiwan independence forces”.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mili...-combat-budget
    The virus has torn the mask from the Politburo’s geopolitical designs. The US must also prepare to defend and deepen our commitment to allies in the Asia-Pacific region as they face a growing and truly existential threat from Beijing.
    Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, released his latest proposal to charter and resource an Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative (IPDI) which identifies the specific resources required to enhance U.S. deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific region, similar to what the European Deterrence Initiative has done for Europe against Russia. The bill enhances United States presence in the region, improves infrastructure and logistics, builds allied and partner capacity to deter aggression, strengthens ally and partner interoperability, allows for additional training and exercises, and demonstrates United States commitment to Indo-Pacific nations to address operational challenges in the Indo- Pacific region. Thornberry’s proposal provides a benchmark with which to measure progress and allows for greater transparency and oversight. This funding builds on the President’s own budget request for the region with the additional requirements identified by our regional commanders and service secretaries. It also utilizes the information in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s investment plan required by Congress and delivered last month.

    https://republicans-armedservices.ho...20Sheet%20.pdf
    This slipped past my newsfeed at the time apparently. Legislation of this kind is long overdue. Better late than never I suppose. It doesn’t appear to have progressed since April, though it’s garnering high profile support:
    THE PACIFIC DETERRENCE INITIATIVE: PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

    The credibility of American deterrence rests on a simple foundation. America prevents wars by convincing its adversaries they cannot win. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis said it succinctly: Deterrence is achieved when the enemy decides, “Not today. You, militarily, cannot win it, so don’t even try it.” Currently, in the Indo-Pacific, that foundation of deterrence is crumbling as an increasingly aggressive China continues its comprehensive military modernization.

    The best way to protect U.S. security and prosperity in Asia is to maintain a credible balance of military power. But America’s ability to do so is at risk. And it’s not just U.S. interests at stake. Allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific are watching closely, and wondering whether they will be able to count on America.

    With the stakes so high, the time for action is now. That’s why this year we intend to establish a Pacific Deterrence Initiative in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative will enhance budgetary transparency and oversight, and focus resources on key military capabilities to deter China. The initiative will also reassure U.S. allies and partners, and send a strong signal to the Chinese Communist Party that the American people are committed to defending U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific.

    https://warontherocks.com/2020/05/th...-indo-pacific/
    House of Representatives Contact Directory
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  15. #155

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    At the moment, for example, we are all of us much exercised about the quality of life in our American urban civilization. I have no intention, at this time, of analyzing the numerous problems which make up what we familiarly call the “crisis of our cities.” Instead, I should like to focus on the apparent incapacity of our democratic and urban civilization to come to grips with these problems. In other words, if it is proper to say that we experience the crisis of our cities, it is equally proper to say that we are the urban crisis. And what I want to suggest further is that one of the main reasons we are so problematic to ourselves is the fact that we are creating a democratic, urban civilization while stubbornly refusing to think clearly about the relation of urbanity to democracy.

    And here, I think, we have at last come to what I would consider the heart of the matter. For the overwhelming fact of American life today, whether this life be lived in a central city or a suburb or a small city—or even in those rural areas where something like a third of our population still resides—is that it is life in an urban civilization. In terms of the quality of American life, the United States is now one vast metropolis. Cities are nothing new; the problems of cities are nothing new; but an urban civilization is very new indeed, and the problems of an urban civilization are without precedent in human history.

    It was because the founding fathers did not see how such a population could be capable of self-government that they took so dim a view of large cities. The “mob,” as it was then to be seen in London and Paris, and even incipiently in New York or Boston, seemed to them the very antithesis of a democratic citizenry: a citizenry self-reliant, self-determining, and at least firmly touched by, if not thoroughly infused with, republican morality. It takes a transcendental-populist faith of truly enormous dimensions to find in this attitude a mere “agrarian bias.” The founding fathers were philosophic men, of no such populist faith, and they had no qualms about insisting that popular government was sustained by “a people” as distinct from a mob.

    For something very odd and unexpected has, in the past decade, been happening to the bourgeois masses who inhabit our new urban civilization. Though bourgeois in condition and lifestyle, they have become less bourgeois in ethos, and strikingly more mob-like in action. Perhaps this has something to do with a change in the economic character of our bourgeois civilization. Many critics have noted the shift from a producer’s ethic (the so-called Protestant ethic) to a consumer’s ethic, and go on to affirm that a bourgeois society of widespread affluence is in its essence radically different from a bourgeois society where scarcity automatically imposes a rigorous discipline of its own. This explanation is all the more plausible in that it echoes, in an academic way, the wisdom of the ages as to the corrupting effects of material prosperity upon the social order.

    The ways in which various strata of our citizenry—from the relatively poor to the relatively affluent—are beginning to behave like a bourgeois urban mob are familiar to anyone who reads his newspaper, and I do not propose to elaborate upon them. The interesting consideration is the extent to which a mob is not simply a physical presence but also, and above everything else, a state of mind. It is, to be precise, that state of mind which lacks all of those qualities that, in the opinion of the founding fathers, added up to republican morality: steadiness of character, deliberativeness of mind, and a mild predisposition to subordinate one’s own special interests to the public interest. Since the founding fathers could not envisage a nation of bourgeois—a nation of urbanized, prosperous, and strongly acquisitive citizens—they located republican morality in the agrarian sector of American life. We, in this century, have relocated it in the suburban and small-city sector of American life—our contemporary version of America’s “grass roots.” And it now appears that our anticipations may be treated as roughly by history as were those of the founding fathers.

    It is this startling absence of values that represents the authentic “urban crisis” of our democratic, urban nation. The fact that the word “urbanity” applies both to a condition of urban things and a state of urban mind may be an accident of philology—but if so it is a happy accident, for it reminds us of the interdependence of mind and thing. That same interdependence is to be found in the word, “democracy,” referring as it does simultaneously to a political system and to the spirit—the idea—that animates this system. The challenge to our urban democracy is to evolve a set of values and a conception of democracy that can function as the equivalent of the “republican morality” of yesteryear. This is our fundamental urban problem. Or, in the immortal words of Pogo: “I have seen the enemy and he is us.”

    https://www.commentarymagazine.com/a...s-discontents/
    As urban civilization in the United States centers itself in the narrative of American life as a whole, it seems anticipation has turned to observation with the passage of time. The challenge is the same, but we have increasingly replaced these “republican values” with introspection as its own virtue, and the courage of leadership with the politics of rent seeking. This is the paralysis underpinning our grinding malaise, as manifested in our directionless instability.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  16. #156

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    I know a downed america has some people saying the world will be more peaceful, but our GDP will go with it. I constantly insist no america ruins all countries. I mean after all, there is no 5 trillion dollar prize for taking us out, you don't inherit our military by taking us out, you just remove the money and the global economy will be saying WTF do we do next? 2/3 of the earth's wealth is here and that will go down with us. Dark ages/stone age round 2. Our money is intergraded globally, our NATO allies are bought and we still reinvest our wealth in other countries, all be it greedily but we do give alot away. If the universal currency is the american dollar (not yet cryptic) what happens when america the country goes? This would than truely be a nightmare scenario.

    Forgive me if i don't know all my facts, I'm a thinker but I'm not much of a reader, ADD and s#.
    "Run to the rescue with love and peace will follow"

  17. #157

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.

    The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9615581.html
    Whatever the significance of formalizing cooperation between the emergent Axis powers may be, Chinese and European economic and political interests in Iran will persist by the looks of it, effectively undermining the post-WW2 system designed to quarantine expansionist authoritarian powers. This will cap decades of paradigm-shifting US foreign policy failures that have hollowed out American soft power.

    It does not appear there is any sense of firm, clear-eyed leadership in the US that could rally the level of sustained commitment from global partners needed to break the new Axis which effectively controls most of Asia from sea to sea - but then, we’ve been in that predicament for a long time now, hence how we are where we are. At a time when the political establishment has weaponized the fringes against its binary rivals, the faint glimmer of unified action against our enemies in the wake of the pandemic and HK protests has evaporated in favor of the usual brinkmanship, with the added bonus of economic collapse, historic levels of public debt, and Marxists weaponizing social unrest to attack from within. The feckless despots who are charged with protecting American interests can only mask their rigor mortis with mass media, financial parlor tricks and naval parades for so long. We were warned.

    “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” - John Adams
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  18. #158

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    As the #Defund madness spreads to national defense, a voice of reason:

    While threats have increased in number and severity, progressives in the House of Representatives are renewing their demands to slash defense spending. Here’s the choice they’re giving us: cut defense spending—and not by just a little—in a short-sighted attempt to funnel more and more money into liberal domestic priorities, or responsibly fund and invest in our national defense to protect American families
    .
    To me, this is an easy choice.

    The National Defense Strategy, which debuted in late 2018, was designed for our current reality. This multiyear strategy acknowledges that our threats aren’t just military—they are political, economic, and technological as well.

    Defense spending isn’t the end-all and be-all, and there are also plenty of conservatives who bemoan the size of the federal budget. No matter what, we’ve got to make sure we’re getting a good bang for our buck—literally—and not give a carte blanche to the Pentagon.

    That said, I would remind everyone about an old document no one reads anymore called the Constitution. It says what we’re supposed to be doing here: defending America. This is why annual defense authorization and funding bills garner strong bipartisan support year after year—it’s something we can all agree on, Democrats and Republicans alike.

    We can’t allow a vocal, fringe minority to rearrange these long-held priorities and put our national security at risk.

    https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/07/...e-investments/
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  19. #159

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    As the decades-long status quo of deficit spending adds up, the US is on unsteady footing as she launches headlong into the lazy experiment to determine how many societal and geopolitical problems can be alleviated with debt and USD in place of policy or leadership. It’s a luxury won as a result of being the world’s safe asset; an assumption that’s changing fast. The ceiling may be closer than we think. Why it’s different this time:
    Deficit hawks have warned for years that a day of reckoning is coming, exposing the United States to the kind of economic crisis that overtook profligate borrowers in the past like Greece or Argentina.

    But most experts say that isn’t likely because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As a result, the United States still has plenty of borrowing capacity left because the Fed can print money with fewer consequences than other central banks.

    And interest rates plunged over the last decade, even as the government turned to the market for trillions each year after the recession. That’s because Treasury bonds are still the favored port of international investors in any economic storm.

    “We exported a financial crisis a decade ago, and the world responded by sending us money,” said William G. Gale, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

    But that privileged position has allowed politicians in both parties to avoid politically painful steps like cutting spending or raising taxes.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/25/b...-interest.html
    “There’s a trade war, there’s a technology war, there’s a geopolitical war and there could be a capital war — that’s the reality,” Dalio said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “If you say by law, don’t invest in China or even possibly withholding the payment of bonds that the United States owes payment on in China, these things are possibilities and they have big implications, such as for the value of the dollar because premarket investors are not used to having those things dictated by the government,” he said. The Bridgewater Associates founder added that these difficult questions had to be “well-addressed” and it was a challenge for the government to get the policy right. The hedge fund firm laid off several dozen employees across the company this month.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/stor...lar-2020-07-27
    “They [the Goldman analysts] estimate that the USD may fall more than 20% from its recent peak,” the report state. That means it could drop to 84, a level it hasn’t seen in the last five years.

    Why should investors care? In the first place, a weaker dollar tends to make the economy grow slower than it otherwise would. The reason is that when a currency is declining or at least isn’t stable investors tend to invest their money elsewhere.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonco...-says-goldman/
    And where is elsewhere, you may ask? The post-US future is now:
    When things cannot go on forever, they stop. And so it is with China’s support of the US dollar. Foreigners sold more than $500bn of US government bonds during the second quarter, and perhaps one-third of that was unloaded by Chinese entities. The trend is worth watching.

    Ever since 2001, when China was allowed unfettered entry into the World Trade Organization, the country has played a huge behind-the-scenes role in pushing up the value of the US currency and suppressing US bond yields.

    If we are correct that China and the eurozone team up, then investors should knuckle down for a weaker US dollar, a stronger than expected eurozone recovery and further gains in the stock market.

    https://www.ft.com/content/8e7379c5-...b-fd1e7bc621b0
    While global markets continue to teeter and traditional safe havens like treasuries and gold spring leaks and face questions, the Chinese bond market has become a sanctuary for investors seeking stable returns with limited risk.

    In fact, as investors drove the yield on the 10-year down to record levels, its counterpart in China is offering an almost a 2% higher yield. As of this writing, 10-year treasuries are at 0.807% and the 10-year Chinese bond is paying 2.703%. This is the largest spread in almost a decade.

    What’s more, we are not seeing a temporary shift. Instead it is a harbinger of things to come.

    According to Hayden Briscoe, Asia-Pacific head of fixed income at UBS Asset Management, “This is going to be the single largest change in capital markets in anybody’s lifetime.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevene...ew-safe-haven/
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  20. #160

    Default Re: On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

    Sporadic riots and looting continue with no end in sight. The political establishment is too weak and incompetent to lead and so embraces “trained Marxists” and “the language of the unheard” out of short term political expediency. Our institutions have become part and parcel of their own destruction in service to the revolutionaries. Meanwhile, foreign adversaries capitalize on the internal weakness and degeneracy plaguing the US to carve out their own interests from the crumbling liberal world order.

    The ideologies and factions at play are not new; neither are their respective goals and ambitions. What has changed? Surely the latter didn’t begin with the pandemic. Is the synergetic acceleration of this transition to a post-American, post-liberal world a mere accident of history? Or is this a particular pathway towards some goal or end? There may be no simple answer to these questions, but there’s nothing accidental about the forces at work. For them, this work has always been about material competition:

    Marxist Teleology - Historical Progress

    Marx himself does not talk of an end to history, nor are there good grounds for thinking his philosophy is committed to such an idea. He describes communist society of the future not as the end of “history,” but rather as the end of “prehistory” (Marx, 1978c). With this phrase he is clearly alluding to the Hegelian picture of history, but it should not be interpreted as expressing a teleological thought. For what Marx is referring to is the end only of this present, blind, stage of historical development — the end of the era of development governed by the clash of blind forces. He is not saying that communism will be the final, teleological, end of history. Rather, it will mark the beginning of a new era which will be made possible “when a great social revolution shall have mastered the results of the bourgeois epoch, the market of the world and the modern powers of production, and subjected them to . . . common control” (Marx, 1978b, 664).22

    This is the thought that is also embodied in the idea of the over- coming of alienation (Sayers, 2011). It certainly implies a conception of historical progress and, as I have been arguing, Marx’s picture can also be interpreted as implying a purely naturalistic teleological pattern of development, but not one that culminates in a final end. Engels expresses this idea as follows:

    Man’s own social organization, which has hitherto confronted him as a pro- cess dictated by nature and history, now becomes a process resulting from his own voluntary action. The objective extraneous forces which have hitherto dominated history now pass under the control of man himself. It is only from this point that man will himself make his own history fully consciously, it is only from this point that the social causes he sets in motion will preponder- antly and ever increasingly have the effects he wills. It is humanity’s leap from the realm of necessity into the realm of freedom. (Engels, 1962, 388–389.)

    What is envisaged here is not the final end of history but the beginning of a new — conscious and free — stage of historical development in which, at last, the pursuit of consciously chosen historical ends will become a possibility for mankind.

    https://guilfordjournals.com/doi/pdf...o.2019.83.1.37

    Conflict is inherent to this Marxist conceptualization of historical progress, and is borne out in the related theories of alienation and the eventual supersession of the latter by communism.

    Marx and Alienation in Capitalist Society

    Marx’s account of alienation draws explicitly and directly on Hegel’s work. He uses the term to refer to a situation in which our own activities and products take on an independent existence and become hostile powers working against us (Marx, 1975e; cf. Elster, 1985, 100). Marx’s main use of the concept is in reference to the form of labour in capital- ist society, but he also talks of ‘alienation’ in the spheres of social and economic relations (division of labour, ‘fetishism of commodities’), the state and religion (Marx, 1975e; Marx and Engels, 1978b; Marx, 1961a).

    Marx’s ideas in this area are directly inherited from Hegel, and there is a considerable congruence between their social theories. Marx agrees with Hegel in regarding the self as a social and historical creation. He regards self-alienation as a social and historical phenomenon which is destined to be overcome with historical development and progress. Thus in Marx, as in Hegel, the social and spiritual aspects of alienation and its overcoming are united.

    However, as mentioned already, Marx rejects the Hegelian view that alienation has already been overcome in present society. He also crit- icises Hegel’s account of history as the self-development of spirit for its idealism and instead propounds a materialist theory. Present capitalist society is characterised by alienation. This has an economic and social basis. Alienation will be overcome only when this is changed. Alien- ation thus serves as a critical concept pointing towards the material transformation of the existing order.

    Thus, the concept of alienation is not a purely critical one in Marx. For Marx, like Hegel, gives a historical account of the self and society. He does not regard the alienation and disharmony of modern society as a merely negative condition. Rather its impact is contradictory. Although it results in the division and fragmentation of people, at the same time it is also the means by which individuality, subjectivity, and freedom develop. It is a necessary stage in the process of self-development and self-realisation – necessary in that human development occurs only in and through it (Sayers, 1998, 138ff, 88f). Up to now these tendencies have appeared to be alien and hostile influences, operating as if they were uncontrollable forces of nature. With human historical development, however, people collectively can eventually come to understand them and bring them under their conscious control. Only then will they cease to be experi- enced as alien and hostile powers and be controlled and put to work for human good.

    As I have shown, Marx, like Hegel, conceives of economic work as on a continuum with free artistic creation, with the implication that such work, although it is always a means to meeting material needs, is also potentially a self-realising activity and an end in itself.

    Marx’s account of alienation is a critical and radical version of the Hegelian ideas that I have been describing. Under conditions of alienation, ‘labour, life activity, productive life itself’ is perverted so that it is, external to the worker, i.e. does not belong to his essential being; that he therefore does not confirm himself in his work, but denies himself, feels miserable and not happy, does not develop free mental and physical energy, but mortifies his flesh and ruins his mind.... His labour is therefore not voluntary but forced. (Marx, 1975e, 326)

    Crucially, therefore, Marx’s critique of modern society is aimed at capitalism and not at industry per se. Indeed, for Marx, one of the great achievements of capitalism is that it has led to the development of modern industry to the point where it can provide the basis for a new, communist society – a society in which alienation can finally be over- come and in which human beings can at last be at home in world.

    http://seansayers.com/wp-content/upl...ian_Themes.pdf

    I’ll refrain from calling this view utopian, as the conflict inherent to Marxist ideology has of course had real world impact in the name of violent struggle. If modern society is fundamentally flawed and therefore must be purged in order to reach “the final stage,” there’s little that can’t or shouldn’t be logically justified in order to reach it, and that’s precisely what we’ve seen today and over the last century through any number of communist regimes. Perhaps more importantly for modern observers, this mentality of systemic grievance underpins the rationale behind today’s “trained Marxists” taking to the streets to “loot back.” But what does this “final stage” look like, anyway? No one can say for certain of course, but the revolutionary forces erasing and reconstructing American national identity under the auspices of “anti-racism” are part of a longstanding ideological tradition:

    Maoism-Third Worldism and the American Radical Left
    Maoism-Third Worldism According to A Convert

    The Western left has actually drifted away from this understanding of exploitation or at least its scientific understanding. This is because many of the ‘workers’ in the First World not only perform unproductive labor, as it is termed, but are not even exploited. This is because many ‘workers’ in Amerika and Europe already receive wages above the value of their labor. This phenomena has created not only a labor aristocracy (the higher rungs of the working class), and a false consciousness, but a labor nobility. Meaning ‘workers’ who, by definition, are net-exploiters. Their lavish standard of living is quite literally built on the exploitation of the global proletariat. This difference in the price of labor power is what is called ‘imperialist rent’. Meaning these ‘workers’ within the imperialist nations are direct beneficiaries of capitalist exploitation and in fact may hold little material interest in an actual world socialist revolution.

    Now, upon hearing this, many people, even socialists, may get offended. No one here is implying that those in the First World do not “work hard”. For the most part First Worlder’s take pride and effort in their work. The question is not one of effort, it is the question of contradiction. The contradiction between the core and periphery nations. That the price of labor power with identical productivity is significantly lower in the periphery than in the core. As we know, profit is made not at exchange, but during the labor process. Meaning that if one group of workers are receiving more, others are receiving less. This is a contradiction that socialist revolution would solve in the most proletarian of ways: by compensating labor to a wage conceived under a common plan.

    This is only one example of how M-TW answers questions that the establishment Western Marxists have left untouched.

    Now, regarding some of the more common criticisms of M-TW coming especially from the Western Marxists. The assertions of racism, chauvinism, and revisionism surrounding M-TW are simply baseless.

    First, the perceived ‘anti-White’ analysis of M-TW is not some racial supremacy garbage but a factual understanding of how Whiteness functions socially and the ‘White proletariat’ are privileged above international non-’whites’(see this for more information). It is factual, not racist, to point out that ‘white’ families have as much as ten times the net worth of Black families in Amerika. It is correct, not biased, to point out that ‘whites’ comprise a vast majority of the petty-bourgeois and bourgeois in Amerika. These claims of racism are reactionary defensive mechanisms based on a false conscious; ignoring material conditions, class struggle, and accepting a completely bourgeois identity rather than realizing a proletarian solidarity. The real racism comes from trying to make Amerikan ‘whites’ into the exploited masses; creating an entirely false racial identity and class character.

    Second, there is no chauvinism in M-TW. There is chauvinism in suggesting that a select minority of the worlds populace should live lavishly while the rest of the world anguishes. The opulent life-style of the Amerikan consumerist cannot be safely replicated internationally. Suggesting that the worlds resources serve the use-values of the world’s toiling masses is not chauvinism but actual socialism. The idea that some First World college students are the center of revolutionary potential while half the world lives on 2 USD a day is complete and utter nonsense. To accept this bourgeois individualism means rejecting proletarian internationalism.

    Third, M-TW is not revisionist, rather it is only a reassertion of the already established Marxist-Leninist line. Fundamentally there are no new contributions brought out by Maoist-Third Worldists. Maoism-Third Worldism should properly be called Marxism-Leninism or simply Maoism as it only reanalyzes the contemporary world under the same line; paying close attention to the class struggle and the inner mechanisms of global capitalism-imperialism. The goal remains the same. To promote proletarian internationalism, national liberation, and socialist revolution. With all of this said, M-TW can be understood as the truly consistent and non-revisionist application of Marxism.

    https://anti-imperialism.org/2013/07...hird-worldist/

    If white western workers are merely overpaid lumpenproles exploiting the misery of other ethnic groups, it follows that said “First World” workers are not or at least significantly less exploited compared to other kinds of workers, and are therefore part of the problem, not the solution.

    Chinese Communism and Radical Left Identity Politics in the US

    How black radicals came to see China as a beacon of Third World revolu- tion and Mao Zedong thought as a guidepost is a complicated and fascinat- ing story involving literally dozens of organizations and covering much of the world—from the ghettos of North America to the African countryside. The text following thus does not pretend to be comprehensive;∏ instead, we have set out in this essay to explore the impact that Maoist thought and, more generally, the People’s Republic of China have had on black radical movements from the 1950s through at least the mid-1970s. In addition, our aim is to explore how radical black nationalism has shaped debates within Maoist or ‘‘anti-revisionist’’ organizations in the United States. It is our contention that China o√ered black radicals a ‘‘colored’’ or Third World Marxist model that enabled them to challenge a white and Western vision of class struggle—a model that they shaped and reshaped to suit their own cultural and political realities. Although China’s role was contradictory and problematic in many respects, the fact that Chinese peasants, as opposed to the European proletariat, made a socialist revolution and carved out a posi- tion in world politics distinct from the Soviet and U.S. camps endowed black radicals with a deeper sense of revolutionary importance and power. Finally, not only did Mao prove to blacks the world over that they need not wait for ‘‘objective conditions’’ to make revolution, but also his elevation of cultural struggle profoundly shaped debates surrounding black arts and politics.

    By most accounts, an explicit Maoist ideology and movement did not emerge on the U.S. political landscape until Mao initiated the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution in 1966. A precursor to the revolution had erupted in China nine years earlier, when Mao appealed to his countrymen to ‘‘let a hundred flowers blossom’’ and ‘‘let a hundred schools of thought contend.’’ That campaign was just a flash in the pan, however, and it was quickly silenced after too many flowers openly criticized the Chinese Communist Party.

    But the Cultural Revolution was different. Hierarchies in the party and in the Red Army were ostensibly eliminated. Criticism and self-criticism was encouraged—as long as it coincided with Mao Zedong thought. Com- munists suspected of supporting a capitalist road were brought to trial. Bourgeois intellectuals in the academy and government were expected to perform manual labor, to work among the people as a way of breaking down social hierarchies. And all vestiges of the old order were to be elimi- nated. The youth, now the vanguard, attacked tradition with a vengeance and sought to create new cultural forms to promote the revolution. The people of China were now called on to educate themselves. The Cultural Revolution intensified the constituent elements of Maoism: the idea of con- stant rebellion and conflict; the concept of the centrality of people over economic laws or productive forces; the notion of revolutionary morality.

    For many in the New Left, African Americans were not only ‘‘the people’’ but also the most revolutionary sector of the working class. The Cultural Revolution’s emphasis on eliminating hierarchies and empowering the op- pressed reinforced the idea that black liberation lay at the heart of the new American revolution. Mao Zedong himself gave credence to this view in his widely circulated April 1968 statement ‘‘In Support of the Afro-American Struggle Against Violent Repression.’’ The statement was delivered during a massive demonstration in China protesting the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., at which Robert Williams and Vicki Garvin were among the featured speakers. According to Garvin, ‘‘millions of Chinese demonstra tors’’ marched in the pouring rain to denounce American racism.

    Re- sponding to the rebellions touched off by King’s assassination, Mao charac- terized these urban uprisings as ‘‘a new clarion call to all the exploited and oppressed people of the United States to fight against the barbarous rule of the monopoly capitalist class.’’ Even more than the 1963 statement, Mao’s words endowed the urban riots with historic importance in the world of revolutionary upheaval. His statement, as well as the general logic of Lin Biao’s ‘‘theory of the new democratic revolution’’ justified support for black nationalist movements and their right of self-determination.

    It was in the context of the urban rebellions that several streams of black radicalism, including ram, converged and gave birth in Oakland, Califor- nia, to the Black Panther Party for Self-Defense. Perhaps the most visible black organization promoting Mao Zedong thought, by some accounts they also were probably the least serious about reading Marxist, Leninist, or Maoist writings and developing a revolutionary ideology. Founded by Huey Newton and Bobby Seale, a former ram member, the Black Panther Party went well beyond the boundaries of Merritt College and recruited the ‘‘lum- penproletariat.’’ Much of the rank-and-file engaged in sloganeering more than anything else, and their bible was the Little Red Book.

    https://politicaleducation.org/wp-co...y-and-Esch.pdf

    MTW and BLM

    Operating within this Maoist framework critical race theory, that animates groups like BLM, presents world history as a dialectical struggle between a systemic white racism upholding the capitalist order and an anti-racism that identifies the black race as the universal victim of oppression. Race conflict replaces class conflict in this political melodrama.

    From this Manichaean perspective we must necessarily choose a side. Indifference is not an option. Those failing to identify with BLM whether white or black are by that fact racist. None of these propositions, it should be stated, are based on the rigorous development of arguments based on evidence, let alone subject to any Popperian principle of falsification.

    The lack of reasoned premises underlying critical race theory partly explains the BLM movement’s predilection for melodramatic posturing and monument sacking. Rage rather than reason fuels the latest outbreak of millennial iconoclasm. Indignation is, as the philosopher Alasdair McIntyre remarked, a predominantly modern emotion and protest its distinctive mode of expression ‘a reaction to the alleged invasion of someone’s rights in the name of someone else’s utility’. The self-assertive shrillness of modern protest conceals behind the ‘masks of morality what are in fact the preferences of arbitrary will and desire’. It is not surprising therefore that ‘the utterance of protest is characteristically addressed to those who already share the protestors’ premise’.

    To what end, then, is this shrill ‘will and desire’ directed? If we look at the fanatical image-breaking of the Red Guards in the Cultural Revolution for guidance, we can say that the goal is historical amnesia and the creation of the perfect super-revolutionary persona, one free of all constraints and inhibition, one that has no duty but to the principles of socialist purity. In order to accomplish this task Mao sought to shape not just the outward behaviour of the people but to control their inner world as well. The prerequisite for this was cultural erasure. Mao wrote approvingly of the personality as a tabula rasa on to which could be inscribed an unadulterated ideological consciousness: ‘A blank sheet of paper has no blotches, and so the newest and most beautiful words can be written on it, the newest and most beautiful pictures can be painted on it’.

    And what was the ultimate purpose of the sublime revolutionist? Jung Chang in recounting her family’s experiences of the Cultural Revolution in Wild Swans (1991) best captures the instrumental value of the Red Guards when she wrote: ‘Mao had managed to turn the people into the ultimate weapon of dictatorship. That was why under him there was no real equivalent of the KGB in China. There was no need. In bringing out and nourishing the worst in people, Mao had created a moral wasteland and a land of hatred’.

    https://www.cieo.org.uk/research/maoist-moment/


    Beyond the riots or BLM’s “trained Marxist” founders, from examples like the 1619 Project, or the Smithsonian web series on Whiteness, to contemporary media and academia, the Cultural Revolution has arrived in the US. The pluralistic democratic norms predicated on individual rights and liberties born of the American Revolution, are now a matter of debate and controversy, as they conflict with the new and increasingly enforced orthodoxy of race realism and racial clientelism. Indeed, American civic nationalism itself is targeted as a racist construct to be erased (as we’ve seen, repeatedly vandalized, torn down, removed and destroyed) and replaced with a new teleology centered on the British Empire and the resistance against the Empire by non-white and especially black people groups, in order to fit the premise of global class/race struggle and liberation.
    Quote Originally Posted by BLM UK Fundraiser
    We’re guided by a commitment to dismantle imperialism, capitalism, white-supremacy, patriarchy and the state structures that disproportionately harm black people in Britain and around the world. We build deep relationships across the diaspora and strategise to challenge the rise of the authoritarian right-wing across the world, from Brazil to Britain.

    https://www.gofundme.com/f/ukblm-fund
    Quote Originally Posted by BLM Official Statement
    The Black Lives Matter Global Network is as powerful as it is because of our membership, our partners, our supporters, our staff, and you. Our continued commitment to liberation for all Black people means we are continuing the work of our ancestors and fighting for our collective freedom because it is our duty.

    We are unapologetically Black in our positioning. In affirming that Black Lives Matter, we need not qualify our position. To love and desire freedom and justice for ourselves is a prerequisite for wanting the same for others.

    We see ourselves as part of the global Black family, and we are aware of the different ways we are impacted or privileged as Black people who exist in different parts of the world.

    We disrupt the Western-prescribed nuclear family structure requirement by supporting each other as extended families and “villages” that collectively care for one another, especially our children, to the degree that mothers, parents, and children are comfortable.

    https://blacklivesmatter.com/what-we-believe/
    This ideological framing carries through seamlessly to mainstream society, thanks to unprecedented institutional support and decades of decline in normative consensus that had kept it at bay, exposed by the grave crisis of the pandemic.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    “To be neutral, to be passive in a situation,” the historian Howard Zinn tells us, “is to collaborate with whatever is going on.” If the history of black political struggle in the US – something Zinn, a white ex-soldier, actively participated in – teaches us one thing, it is that meaningful political change happens not just when black and brown people take a stand against racism, but when the wider society moves from being neutral to becoming actively anti-racist.

    For these reasons, nearly all anti-racist mass movements worth their salt have recited tirelessly: ending racism, root and branch, would mean ending a global economic order predicated upon it. Anti-racism is anti-capitalist, and vice versa. There are no two ways around it. To be an anti-racist must demand a complete rejection of business as usual. An end to racism demands transformation of the global political-economic setup. This would mean paying workers fair wages across supply chains and ending the ethnicity pay gap, which flies in the face of the primary corporate objective of profit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ge-floyd-death
    United States was formed through rebellion against the British empire, but well after the Revolutionary War ended in 1783, resistance to that empire continued to shape America’s history. The civil rights movement, for instance, was not only deeply influenced by the thought and practices of the Indian anticolonial movement, but it was also part of a wider antiracist struggle in the era of decolonization that connected activists across Asia, Africa and beyond, mobilizing the global diasporas of Asians and Africans that colonialism had created.

    Those diasporas extended to the United States. The British shipped enslaved Africans to the Americas starting in the 17th century. Indians were also in the United States from the start, such as the Bengali woman Mary Emmons, who was Aaron Burr’s servant and mother of two of his children. More Indians, many of them refugees from colonialism, arrived from the 19th century.

    And so, freedom struggles abroad merged with the struggles of people of color in the United States. If Martin Luther King Jr. was inspired by Mohandas K. Gandhi, Indian anticolonial activists in the United States, like Lala Lajpat Rai, found inspiration in the Black struggle there from the early 20th century.

    These intertwined histories of displacement and struggle have profoundly affected America’s current political moment. Two of the most powerful politicians in the Democratic Party, Barack Obama and Kamala Harris, are the product of families shaped by the global anticolonial and antiracial optimism of the 1960s, by the bonds of progressive young people around the globe who attempted to make new kinds of societies at a moment in which empire seemed to be completing the process of disintegration that had begun in 1776. As Kamala Harris vies for the Vice Presidency, a complete recounting of her formation requires recognizing her as both a quintessentially American politician—because of, not despite, her being a child of immigrants—and part of a global story of the former British empire.

    https://time.com/5881343/kamala-harris-global-history/
    The response to this crisis has made it even more clear that party politics are a sham, and the real political affinity lies within class and race. While we’re working to abolish the police, we must also work to dismantle what the police were put here to protect: property. What is more evident of the legacy of settler colonialism and its violence than the idea of the ownership of land? What helped shape the unequal distribution of wealth and enduring segregation of our cities quite like centuries of racist property laws?

    As millions of people, particularly Black and Latinx Americans, are on the verge of eviction, it is time that we look at the idea of private housing and the role it plays in maintaining economic violence in those communities.

    There’s a disconnect between those in political office and the general public. That disconnect is wealth and class. The constitution was created by landowning white men, who were the only people who could vote for decades after this country’s founding. This legacy still guides the government’s funding priorities.

    Instead of seeing housing as a right and something that should not be commodified, the state enlists its own armed forces — sheriffs and police — to remove occupants from residences if they cannot pay rent. The lack of protections for non-landowners should be to no surprise from a country founded on the genocide and colonization of indigenous peoples.

    We need a housing movement based on a rejection of the construct that any one person should own this earth’s land.

    https://www.teenvogue.com/story/evic...virus-pandemic

    What can be made of this new normal in a declining America? Perhaps more of the same. Perhaps a point of ignominious stasis. In any case, the US will not and cannot be the guarantor of the liberal world order she created while her violently reforged identity is borrowed directly from her ascendant authoritarian competitors, and committed to her own destruction.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

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