There is a lot of childish silly nationalism going around about this in Turkey.
Its crazy how much nationalism can blind people and steer them away from a common good for all.
I am not fan of American military-industry complex, but anybody with a bit of understanding of IR would know that this is a HUGE symbolic step.
My theory is that the West had not given up on Turkey yet, and that is why the EU is not going loco on Turkey and we are still in NATO. They think that this is a temporary crisis because of Erdoğan and that in a generation or so, more pro-west leaders would eventually take over. So the west thinks that there is no need to push Turkey towards "other" poles that fast. They seem to think that Turkey is not lost yet, and I sort of agree with this.
On the other hand, Turkish leadership and many political positions are foolish to think that Russia or China can be an ALTERNATIVE to the West.
What people do not seem to understand is that, the whole NATO alliance and the global economic system revolved around giving the security tasks/control to USA in return for trade and economic growth. If you grow under an American-led global economic system, using its military expenses to freely trade, grow and have access to finance/capital, you should listen to it when it comes to security issues. At least that is how Americans see it.
This was sort of an unofficial contract.
The only major country that remained outside this was Russia with a completely different world outlook. Even China grew under an American trade system.
Now, Turkey, a country that had its whole military set up by Americans, organized, trained, given manuals and institutional guidance as well as technological partnerships for decades by Americans and its Western alliance ...suddenly, when it can take a couple steps on its own, starts challenging the USA (I am not talking about this in a normative way mind you, I am just describing the picture).
That, for the USA, is going too far. Getting close with Russians beyond economic-ties is a big no no for the American perspective, when your security and military owes so much to its support for decades. You are essentially telling USA that you were using it to grow and turn your back when you are strong enough. (and when you show your colors "before" you are ready, you'll be in trouble, which is what is going on in Turkey imo)
The "nationalists" who boast about Turkey's "ballsy" move do not realize a lot of things.
1. Before ALL, neither Russia nor China can be an alternative to West. And if the West is pushed to its limits, it can MUCH MORE EASILY afford to lose hopes of integrating Turkey. Turkey CANNOT afford to lose West, no matter what nationalists talk about. The numbers speak otherwise.
2. China and Russia are not IDEAL trade partners, because our productions are similar to them. The West is an IDEAL CONSUMER economy for cheaper, lower quality goods that allows Turkey to export and grow while tapping into their production chains to improve our technology and firm quality. Chinese and Russian production is largely a COMPETITOR to Turkish economy, and there is nothing to be gained from their corrupt economic systems. Even ifChina/Russia/Turkey was to develop to the point of doing Intra-industry Trade like in EU, the leadership in those countries are highly against sharing such dependence, unlike EU. This would mean that if these countries grew together, they'd be HOSTILE/COMPETING to each other, not integrating.
3. Russia and China are not market economies, so are their spheres. They are not interested in allowing trade integration that allows growth and wealth generation. They are HOSTILE to foreign economic activity, and they want to control them to simply nurture their own nationalist-economic outlook.
4. Russia and China are faaaar from having deep enough economies to have sophisticated financial markets that can sustain the needs of a country like Turkey. Both try to build reserves through exports. They are uninterested in liquidfying global economy, and are incapable of doing so. Turkey is a capital-hungry country and its interest lie largely in access to capital, which only the west can provide in a meaningful way. An average nationalist is incapable of understanding the complexity of global economic relations, and think that its easy to build .
Lets be clear here, Russia has a lower gdp-per capita than Turkey, and this is despite their massive OIL exports. Sure they have their own military-platforms which is a remnant of the USSR's power, but it is not enough to build a wealthy world.
It will be these nationalists who talk who will get hurt when people are incapable of spending and investing, and their Purchasing Power declines.
I am more interested in living a quality life personally, than having an unnecessary air defence system. There are no AIR THREATS to me anyways. On the other hand, trade with West, and integration with them brings modern institutions and economic growth space. Meanwhile, integration to Russia-China will only deepen the anti-democratic barbaric lynch culture in Turkey. The choice is easy.
On the military-side, people seem to talk of switching to Sukhois like its a game. This is really a childish thing to say. These people have no idea how military infrastructure works. NATO is a sophisticatedly tied network of technological platforms that are build in compatability with each other throughout decades. The whole military industry in Turkey, all of its software development, all of the missiles and electronics it produces are a product of a NATO-compatible eco-system.
Russians have a COMPLETELY SEPERATE system.
Swtiching to Sukhoi means things ranging from changing whole DOCTRINES , Air-Ground Coordination systems being distrupted (for instance, afaik, the new Corvette was designed according to electronics of F-35), making of the indigenously developed systems/weapons to software redundant/obsolete. Pilots have to be completely retrained and gain experience/handle of the new places for many many years to come.
A lot of local production-eco-system, some of Turkey's best industries will be massively harmed.
Some people seem to think that Turkey can coop with EU instead...this has to be a joke. If push comes the shove, you think BAE will work with Turkey and share technology for the TFX project? Economic partnership is one thing, miltiary partnership is another. USA calls the shot in the Western miltiary alliance, and if Turkey is becoming a threat, there won't be any "European Partners".
Honestly, I think Turkey is acting like a spoiled brat thinking it can have everything and do as it wills. You have to make a choice. I say this as a Turk with a Turkish saying "ekmeğini yediğin kaba sıçmak"...Our economy and military grew immensely under the Western alliance despite problems here and there, and now when alternatives pop up, we go to others and threaten the West with our alternatives. IF this is how we act, we should not be suprised if the West takes precautions that go a lot further.
We cannot act like there is no West- China/Russia competition in the world and try to get best of the both worlds. We have to make a choice.
I'd rather be with West than be with Russia-China.
And furthermore, neither Russians nor Chinese are "culturally" pro-Turkey, nor the Turks are fond of these peoples. I am not even mentioning these factors, but Russia-China and Turkey are more like natural rivals than allies. All countries have a lot of baggage between. (Muslims vs Russia conflicts, Russia-Armenia Relations, Russian Pro-Orthodox stance which makes them naturally closer to Greeks when it comes down to it, millions of Muslims in Russia being a potential threat if Turkey's power grows....etc.)
Furthermore, since Turkey keeps moving like a bellydancer, our record and respectability in IR is in tattters. Putin is not blind. He is not going to go all in on Turkey. He knows that Turkey can be lost with one election. It is largely based on Erdoğan's personal ambitions than Turkey's natural political trajectory...
So we are neither close to west nor east now. We wanted best of the both worlds, we'll get worst of the both worlds.