Turkey Kicked Out Of F-35 Program, NATO Compromised By Turkish Treachery

[dogukan]

There is a lot of childish silly nationalism going around about this in Turkey.

Its crazy how much nationalism can blind people and steer them away from a common good for all.

I am not fan of American military-industry complex, but anybody with a bit of understanding of IR would know that this is a HUGE symbolic step.

My theory is that the West had not given up on Turkey yet, and that is why the EU is not going loco on Turkey and we are still in NATO. They think that this is a temporary crisis because of Erdoğan and that in a generation or so, more pro-west leaders would eventually take over. So the west thinks that there is no need to push Turkey towards "other" poles that fast. They seem to think that Turkey is not lost yet, and I sort of agree with this.

On the other hand, Turkish leadership and many political positions are foolish to think that Russia or China can be an ALTERNATIVE to the West.

What people do not seem to understand is that, the whole NATO alliance and the global economic system revolved around giving the security tasks/control to USA in return for trade and economic growth. If you grow under an American-led global economic system, using its military expenses to freely trade, grow and have access to finance/capital, you should listen to it when it comes to security issues. At least that is how Americans see it.

This was sort of an unofficial contract.
The only major country that remained outside this was Russia with a completely different world outlook. Even China grew under an American trade system.

Now, Turkey, a country that had its whole military set up by Americans, organized, trained, given manuals and institutional guidance as well as technological partnerships for decades by Americans and its Western alliance ...suddenly, when it can take a couple steps on its own, starts challenging the USA (I am not talking about this in a normative way mind you, I am just describing the picture).
That, for the USA, is going too far. Getting close with Russians beyond economic-ties is a big no no for the American perspective, when your security and military owes so much to its support for decades. You are essentially telling USA that you were using it to grow and turn your back when you are strong enough. (and when you show your colors "before" you are ready, you'll be in trouble, which is what is going on in Turkey imo)

The "nationalists" who boast about Turkey's "ballsy" move do not realize a lot of things.

1. Before ALL, neither Russia nor China can be an alternative to West. And if the West is pushed to its limits, it can MUCH MORE EASILY afford to lose hopes of integrating Turkey. Turkey CANNOT afford to lose West, no matter what nationalists talk about. The numbers speak otherwise.

2. China and Russia are not IDEAL trade partners, because our productions are similar to them. The West is an IDEAL CONSUMER economy for cheaper, lower quality goods that allows Turkey to export and grow while tapping into their production chains to improve our technology and firm quality. Chinese and Russian production is largely a COMPETITOR to Turkish economy, and there is nothing to be gained from their corrupt economic systems. Even ifChina/Russia/Turkey was to develop to the point of doing Intra-industry Trade like in EU, the leadership in those countries are highly against sharing such dependence, unlike EU. This would mean that if these countries grew together, they'd be HOSTILE/COMPETING to each other, not integrating.

3. Russia and China are not market economies, so are their spheres. They are not interested in allowing trade integration that allows growth and wealth generation. They are HOSTILE to foreign economic activity, and they want to control them to simply nurture their own nationalist-economic outlook.

4. Russia and China are faaaar from having deep enough economies to have sophisticated financial markets that can sustain the needs of a country like Turkey. Both try to build reserves through exports. They are uninterested in liquidfying global economy, and are incapable of doing so. Turkey is a capital-hungry country and its interest lie largely in access to capital, which only the west can provide in a meaningful way. An average nationalist is incapable of understanding the complexity of global economic relations, and think that its easy to build .
Lets be clear here, Russia has a lower gdp-per capita than Turkey, and this is despite their massive OIL exports. Sure they have their own military-platforms which is a remnant of the USSR's power, but it is not enough to build a wealthy world.

It will be these nationalists who talk who will get hurt when people are incapable of spending and investing, and their Purchasing Power declines.
I am more interested in living a quality life personally, than having an unnecessary air defence system. There are no AIR THREATS to me anyways. On the other hand, trade with West, and integration with them brings modern institutions and economic growth space. Meanwhile, integration to Russia-China will only deepen the anti-democratic barbaric lynch culture in Turkey. The choice is easy.



On the military-side, people seem to talk of switching to Sukhois like its a game. This is really a childish thing to say. These people have no idea how military infrastructure works. NATO is a sophisticatedly tied network of technological platforms that are build in compatability with each other throughout decades. The whole military industry in Turkey, all of its software development, all of the missiles and electronics it produces are a product of a NATO-compatible eco-system.
Russians have a COMPLETELY SEPERATE system.
Swtiching to Sukhoi means things ranging from changing whole DOCTRINES , Air-Ground Coordination systems being distrupted (for instance, afaik, the new Corvette was designed according to electronics of F-35), making of the indigenously developed systems/weapons to software redundant/obsolete. Pilots have to be completely retrained and gain experience/handle of the new places for many many years to come.
A lot of local production-eco-system, some of Turkey's best industries will be massively harmed.

Some people seem to think that Turkey can coop with EU instead...this has to be a joke. If push comes the shove, you think BAE will work with Turkey and share technology for the TFX project? Economic partnership is one thing, miltiary partnership is another. USA calls the shot in the Western miltiary alliance, and if Turkey is becoming a threat, there won't be any "European Partners".


Honestly, I think Turkey is acting like a spoiled brat thinking it can have everything and do as it wills. You have to make a choice. I say this as a Turk with a Turkish saying "ekmeğini yediğin kaba sıçmak"...Our economy and military grew immensely under the Western alliance despite problems here and there, and now when alternatives pop up, we go to others and threaten the West with our alternatives. IF this is how we act, we should not be suprised if the West takes precautions that go a lot further.
We cannot act like there is no West- China/Russia competition in the world and try to get best of the both worlds. We have to make a choice.

I'd rather be with West than be with Russia-China.

And furthermore, neither Russians nor Chinese are "culturally" pro-Turkey, nor the Turks are fond of these peoples. I am not even mentioning these factors, but Russia-China and Turkey are more like natural rivals than allies. All countries have a lot of baggage between. (Muslims vs Russia conflicts, Russia-Armenia Relations, Russian Pro-Orthodox stance which makes them naturally closer to Greeks when it comes down to it, millions of Muslims in Russia being a potential threat if Turkey's power grows....etc.)

Furthermore, since Turkey keeps moving like a bellydancer, our record and respectability in IR is in tattters. Putin is not blind. He is not going to go all in on Turkey. He knows that Turkey can be lost with one election. It is largely based on Erdoğan's personal ambitions than Turkey's natural political trajectory...

So we are neither close to west nor east now. We wanted best of the both worlds, we'll get worst of the both worlds.

[ioannis76]

As always, your comments are spot-on. Personally, being hostile to Turkey, I am grateful that the current leadership is as it is, and acts as it does. In fact, if we were to look at history, the Ottoman Empire was by far an easier opponent than the Kemalic (fascist) State.
To add to what you are saying regarding military technology, thanks to the US, now the sale of the Mangusta (which Turkey refers to as T129) to Pakistan has been stalled, since Turkey can't find engines for the helicopter:

https://ahvalnews.com/atak/turkeys-a...ng-engines-sol

Turkey’s ATAK helicopter sale to Pakistan stalled over missing engines - SoL

On my part, I would urge Greek pilots to push their turkish counterparts harder in the Aegean dogfights, since Turkey seems to be short on spare parts for the F16s. Hopefully, something will give in the enemy planes.

[Tureuki]

When your only hope to gain upper hand againts your opponent is the possibility of them getting sanctioned by a third party and gradually run out of your spare parts in the following decades.

[Vanoi]

When your only hope to gain upper hand againts your opponent is the possibility of them getting sanctioned by a third party and gradually run out of your spare parts in the following decades.

Greece will probably never compete on a military level with Turkey anyways. Turkey can still decline militarily though.

[conon394]

Although the helicopter link is interesting its already delayed one sale and could presumably effect the gulf sale as well.

What I surprised is the Russian willing to do tech transfer (which seemed to have been the sticking point for the Patriot). They done the same somewhat foolish with China as well. The Czar seems to favoring deals now at the cost of giving up Russian tech.

[PointOfViewGun]

Yep no agency by anyone in Turkey on those coups. But Common Soldier is more or less right Turkey and NATO the EU were driven together by the cold war its its increasing clear they are drifting apart. You could and can bring on complaints on all sides. All reasonably valid from everyone's own point of view. In this case Turkey is still a supplier for components of the F-35 it will be interesting to see in the US disengages there as well - that would no doubt cost the US (in finding alternatives) but would be a stronger signal of separation. Turkey could then of course eject the US from Incirlik. Who knows Trump might like that I'm sure he thinks Turkey is not paying enough to have a US airbase.

The alliance and the cooperation that follows is an illusion. It would be like if Turkey harbored a fifth column communist organization of USA citizens that act as if they're regular Republicans to take over key government positions to one day take over the USA government to establish their own order. Imagine you have the believed leader of that organization on tape telling his followers to keep their extremist ideologies secret till they are powerful enough to take over the government. Say that person lives in a mansion in outskirts of Konya, that his resident permit was sponsored by a high ranking MIT (like CIA but Turkish) individual. What kind of ally is that?

Gullen only became a problem with Erdogan needed a scape goat. Stop blaming the US for the coups when Turks were more than willing to coup their own government.

Thats the problem. Turkey's interests do not go above the interests of NATO.

Gülen was always a problem for Turkey. Whether it became a problem for Erdoğan doesn't change that. USA actively harbored an individual who was at least the face of an organization that had the goal of taking over control of Turkey through clandestine manners. That's a fact. The defense that there was local support for foreign meddling does not justify foreign meddling. It's ridiculous that you'd even consider such an argument.

Although the helicopter link is interesting its already delayed one sale and could presumably effect the gulf sale as well.

What I surprised is the Russian willing to do tech transfer (which seemed to have been the sticking point for the Patriot). They done the same somewhat foolish with China as well. The Czar seems to favoring deals now at the cost of giving up Russian tech.

Patriot systems was also much more expensive and known to be less effective. The USA congress at the time was also not willing to approve the sale.

[ioannis76]

When your only hope to gain upper hand againts your opponent is the possibility of them getting sanctioned by a third party and gradually run out of your spare parts in the following decades.

Well, with the administration(s) that Greece has, they will very seldom (if at all) allow the Greek pilots to push that little button in the middle of the stick. On the few occasions they were allowed to, the opponent was soundly defeated. Therefore, why not push the opponent to the limits of his aircraft and take advantage of the fact that eventually his aircraft will suffer such damage that it will make the aircraft prone to failure? No diplomatic incident, plus we save up on missiles.
Anyway, it's called using a strategic advantage. Turkey has done that by threatening with their numbers and their population. If the turkish army were to fight one vs one, then Turkey would have the right to complain about "fair play".

Now, Erdogan has helped Greece in two ways, first of all he managed to remove his most competent pilots, and secondly he managed to create a shortage of spare parts for the turkish air force. Sometimes I wonder if he's really an agent working for Greece, but I don't believe that the Greek secret service has such competent agents.

Now, to our American friends, this is the part where I say "I told you so". I just love it when I get to say that. NATO should break Turkey in three independent states. One should be Constantinople (and perhaps the Aegean coast, under international/western control), the second should be a Kurdish state (SE Turkey, allied to the US) and the third should be Central minor asia (geopolitically irrelevant).

[PointOfViewGun]

Turkey does not have a shortage of parts for F-16s. They've been stockpiling them for quite some time. They have enough to go for years. It's pathetic to bank on that for some nationalistic gain.

[dogukan]

Although the helicopter link is interesting its already delayed one sale and could presumably effect the gulf sale as well.

What I surprised is the Russian willing to do tech transfer (which seemed to have been the sticking point for the Patriot). They done the same somewhat foolish with China as well. The Czar seems to favoring deals now at the cost of giving up Russian tech.

I HIGHLY doubt there'll be any serious tech-transfer. Russians always sort out an export-version of their systems.

Lets be real, Russia is well known for its SAM systems. They heavily bet on SAMs because of their disadvantage in air superiority against west. SAMs are easier to maintain and upgrade than a full fleet capable of taking on the West. Their other asset are their missle capabilities.

These 2 are what keeps Russia in the game. Losing the edge in their SAM tech is a huge threat to them, just like USA losing its Air Superiority capabilities.

Now, I doubt Putin is blind. Turkey might be getting close to Russia, but that is largely Erdoğan's and his advisor's personal ambitions. It is not the natural trajectory of Turkey. It is a forced trajectory. It is only happening thanks to personal efforts of Erdoğan. And even there, Erdoğan has shown many times how FAST he can turn to the other side. Within the last 10 years, Turkey has had given so much mixed messages even us Turks have no idea what we will do tomorrow. We were at the edge war with Russians not so long ago and declaring them the murderers of Muslims.
A good message from the West and Erdoğan rapidly changes his discourse...etc

Russian administration can easily see this. The ties of Turkey-Russia are not as natural as say, ties of Syria-Russia.
Erdoğan's loss of power or his death even can reverse everything. For Russia, Turkey is not WORTH going all in and investing so much. There is no natural alliance in between.

A country that is very likely to revert back to its old position in geopolitics is not a country worth giving all your tech to. Especially if you do not have anything that suggests a sustainable alliance. And believe me, there are a LOT of potential problems between Russia-Turkey. From economics, politics to cultural/religious issues.

Meanwhile, West has realized that they cannot support Turkey unconditionally. This is also an opportunity for Kurds and Cypriots. Things that West was silent about for the sake of not angering Turkey are now coming to the table as geopolitical cards.
Mind you, Russians NEVER took a hostile attitude against Kurds, they do not even recognize PKK as a terrorist organization still.

So I think both the West and Russians are playing it safe. It is Turkey that gets all excited about any sign of global hegemonic shifts. And at the speed we are turning in our position, all I can say is that we destroyed Turkey's respectability/reputation as a country with stable policies. And we have shown that we are ready to burn the world when it comes to tackling the Kurdish issue.

[PointOfViewGun]

Russians are working on their S-500s. There is no real reason why they would stay away from transferring technology to Turkey.

[dogukan]

Russians are working on their S-500s. There is no real reason why they would stay away from transferring technology to Turkey.

The only reason Turkey-russia gets close is due to Turkey's urgent desire for an alternative.
Russian giving anything meaningful to Turkey to make it self-sufficient, especially given that Turkey is more likely to be an adversary on the long-run against Russia, is unlikely.

Turkey is a capable country despite a horrible management. I believe it is far from its potential, but it has a strong state-tradition that is capapble of developing military means.

That is something turkey did at the expense of everything else for decades. Despite all the brain drain, we have dedicated young engineers and a lively military-industry eco-system.

In military, you want dependent partners. Not partners that will go on their own way on the long run.

I personally do not believe Russia wll give any meaningful tech to Turkey.

But this is just my logic-speculation. So take it as you will..

[Tureuki]

Sputnik Turkiye keep advertising Su-35 like a phone salesman lol. They are really hoping for it, but it would be a stupid move to take another step. S-400 was a message and it is received by the west as it is intended, but anything beyond that is danger zone for Turkey's future, unless of course if the west forces Turkey into it.

[conon394]

Sputnik Turkiye keep advertising Su-35 like a phone salesman lol. They are really hoping for it, but it would be a stupid move to take another step. S-400 was a message and it is received by the west as it is intended, but anything beyond that is danger zone for Turkey's future, unless of course if the west forces Turkey into it.

How was it intended. It got turkey booted off the f-35, lost in Helicopter engines and did not make the US cave of tech transfer as part of a Patriot deal... if it was a threat it seems to have failed.

[Love Mountain]

The reason why Russia has been more forthcoming with sales of S-400s and S-300s, is because China is rapidly catching up in that department. They already passed Russian arms manufacturing in construction of large surface combatants for example, and they are rapidly catching up in other areas as well. While it's unlikely that China will leapfrog Russian rocketry and radar capabilities, they can offer comparable systems at a steep discount. Which means Russia has to get as much market share sooner, rather than later. It's also one of the reasons why they sold the S-400s to China. If they didn't sell it soon, they never would because China would simply build their own version eventually.

Russians are working on their S-500s. There is no real reason why they would stay away from transferring technology to Turkey.

It's unlikely to see its full potential within the next 5 years. S-400 was largely a product of Cold War legacy theory and engineering. Russia has been having trouble advancing beyond their Soviet legacy. The current crop of Russian modern equipment, like the Su-34, Borei subs, and S-400, all have roots stemming from the Cold War. Even the current T-14 Armata, has a lot of heritage from the Soviet past. Su-57, which has been in development, a problematic one at that, for 15+ years now and still had to compromise on a lot of features simply because the engineering capability isn't there.

In fact, the S-400's long-range 400km+ missile, has only been recently approved for service. The S-500 is likely to be iterative, rather than innovative, and I doubt that many of its theoretical features will be ready at launch.

I HIGHLY doubt there'll be any serious tech-transfer. Russians always sort out an export-version of their systems.

Lets be real, Russia is well known for its SAM systems. They heavily bet on SAMs because of their disadvantage in air superiority against west. SAMs are easier to maintain and upgrade than a full fleet capable of taking on the West. Their other asset are their missle capabilities.

These 2 are what keeps Russia in the game. Losing the edge in their SAM tech is a huge threat to them, just like USA losing its Air Superiority capabilities.

Now, I doubt Putin is blind. Turkey might be getting close to Russia, but that is largely Erdoğan's and his advisor's personal ambitions. It is not the natural trajectory of Turkey. It is a forced trajectory. It is only happening thanks to personal efforts of Erdoğan. And even there, Erdoğan has shown many times how FAST he can turn to the other side. Within the last 10 years, Turkey has had given so much mixed messages even us Turks have no idea what we will do tomorrow. We were at the edge war with Russians not so long ago and declaring them the murderers of Muslims.
A good message from the West and Erdoğan rapidly changes his discourse...etc

Russian administration can easily see this. The ties of Turkey-Russia are not as natural as say, ties of Syria-Russia.
Erdoğan's loss of power or his death even can reverse everything. For Russia, Turkey is not WORTH going all in and investing so much. There is no natural alliance in between.

A country that is very likely to revert back to its old position in geopolitics is not a country worth giving all your tech to. Especially if you do not have anything that suggests a sustainable alliance. And believe me, there are a LOT of potential problems between Russia-Turkey. From economics, politics to cultural/religious issues.

Meanwhile, West has realized that they cannot support Turkey unconditionally. This is also an opportunity for Kurds and Cypriots. Things that West was silent about for the sake of not angering Turkey are now coming to the table as geopolitical cards.
Mind you, Russians NEVER took a hostile attitude against Kurds, they do not even recognize PKK as a terrorist organization still.

So I think both the West and Russians are playing it safe. It is Turkey that gets all excited about any sign of global hegemonic shifts. And at the speed we are turning in our position, all I can say is that we destroyed Turkey's respectability/reputation as a country with stable policies. And we have shown that we are ready to burn the world when it comes to tackling the Kurdish issue.

There is nothing natural about Russia and the Middle East at all. The only thing maintaining Russian influence in the Middle East, is competition between local powers. The only real cultural affinity in the region is between Russia and Israel.

[Nebaki]

This is good news for everyone. Turks and the West can finally go their own separate ways. This is another sign that NATO needs to evolve and change or perhaps be disintegrated entirely. Article 5, can be picked up by a successor, like an EU army. Another thing, the S-400 is inferior to it's Western counterpart, the Aegis combat system. Sukhois are inferior for an army that relies or wants to rely heavily on air power. In any case, Su-57 is an inferior LO platform compared to the F-35. Still, for a country like Turkey, it's arguably more important to have a good air defense network rather than a super plane.

What kind of BS is this? Turkish Forces relies on NATO Standards and Infrastructure and how in the Hell is the S-400 superior against the Aegis Combat System? Turkey is part of NATO and relies on NATO Air Defense Network then just owning some Batteries of S-400´s and Russian Air Defense Network also just didn´t work with only some S-Series Batteries/SAM´s. You did not decide Purchase of Next-Gen Fighters just over the Night - But i guess this happened on the Part of S-400´s.

This is Bad for Turkey and in my Opinion also for the USA - the winner of this rumble in any case is Russia.

Turkey does not have a shortage of parts for F-16s. They've been stockpiling them for quite some time. They have enough to go for years. It's pathetic to bank on that for some nationalistic gain.

This is not True - If we just look at the Parts of how an F-16 being assembled we will clearly see that Turkey will definitely lack of some Important Parts for their F-16 Fleet and furthermore Turkish Fleet has just a few new F-16s of Block 50 Series - some others old ones got a life extension but their Fuselage are old.

US will even not Sell some F16 Block 70 Series to Turkey and you cannot use oldtimers all the time without the Fact getting outclassed from the Competition.

Finally. This was a project Turkey should have stepped away from from the beginning. They should have investigated in a European project. The S-400s was an exhaust for that. Nonetheless, it's an undesirable outcome for both parties. It will be interesting to see if the money Turkey investigated in the F-35 project will come back. In any scenario, this move will likely strengthen the already ongoing tactic to invest in a domestic project backed by foreign suppliers; TAI TF-X. There are already a number of serious participants. The plane was designed by BAE. The engine is built by Eurojet or GE subsidiaries. It will take years to develop this plane and the plane won't be near as good as F-35 but all the agreements are done with technology transfer in mind. In the long run, Turkey gets hell of a lot more from that.

There will be no TAI TF-X Project since neither BAE (UK) nor any serious Company in this Business are Part of the Project anymore for some known Reasons. TF-X was also not really designed to replace the F-35 - moreover the TF-X Project would gain more from the Experience of an F-35 then not having it. Even some manufacturing of the F-35 Parts was made in Turkey - now this is gone.

That's likely baseless conspiracy talk as Turkey did try to buy the Patriot system but the price was much more expensive and the USA congress was not willing to sell it to Turkey.

That´s not true and we do also not clearly not knew what the US Package that was offered to Turkey included - Turkey wanted firstly chinese System since it got also offered with some serious Technology Sharing and Turkey and China did those Military Business also in the past. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...e-choice-24921

Turkey even got offer to participate on the THAAD Project and some known one refused it - long time ago.

The Real Question here are:

1. Did Turkey even made an serious move to Purchase Patriots from US? Can someone here clearly provide us an Source in this case?
2. What was the Reason not choosing the European Counterpart? As i know there was no struggling between supplier-customer.
3. Which S-400 Version Turkey now get? Will they even able to use as it´s known to be effective or will it only some junk for Political Shows?
4. Russia even don´t really wanted Sell to China those Systems for known reasons, why they would give this to an Official Ally of your archenemy which even was in the past your Enemy?

[Odenat]

What people do not seem to understand is that, the whole NATO alliance and the global economic system revolved around giving the security tasks/control to USA in return for trade and economic growth. If you grow under an American-led global economic system, using its military expenses to freely trade, grow and have access to finance/capital, you should listen to it when it comes to security issues. At least that is how Americans see it.

Well, i read your comments and there are a lot of things you are wrong. First of all, today's USA is very different than USA of 1950s, 1960s. And the world changed too. USA does not care about free trade or economic growth of its allies. Today USA does not want allies, it wants colonies who does what it orders. Do you know that any country buying arms from Russia will get embargoed according to USA laws? This subject is not about F-35s. If some country want to buy old WW2 tanks, they will get embargoed too! India is trying to buy Russian missiles and they are the target of sanctions too. Even buying simple grenade launchers like in Philippines case could result in sanctions.

There is no free trade nor economic growth anymore because USA or EU does not care about it. Those countries does not care about freedom, read the latest news from USA, they are trying to kick out Muslim congresswomen, they are doing raids against refugees. English ships stop Iran tankers on Gibraltar strait and than they say there must be freedom of navigation at Gulf! West is nothing but hypocrisy today.

Do you accept this? Do you accept being a colony who does what USA says, who asks how high when USA says jump? You say our economy grow with Western alliance. Things change. Asia is growing economically while West is becoming stagnant. NO one in Turkey says we must cut all relations with the West and stop trading with them. What Turkish says is that we have the right to trade with whoever we want because we are a free country. We Turkish does not accept being a colony. If you want to live in an American colony, you can go live at Northern Irak.

[dogukan]

There is nothing natural about Russia and the Middle East at all. The only thing maintaining Russian influence in the Middle East, is competition between local powers. The only real cultural affinity in the region is between Russia and Israel.

Your chinese competition argument makes a lot of sense. I agree with it to a large extend. In a way, they want to squeze the best out of a product cycle process with what they got.

Russia is in many ways, especially economically, a regressing machine. Especially as they lose edge in enery dependency of west.
They are getting old, capital poor and human capital poor. Their economy and military is still reliant on old soviet edge and even engineers from the old soviet generation who are dying out. (And not bng replaced afaik due to a bad education system)
They are unlikely to keep up with the Soviet capability to keep an edge like before the in the new generations.



On the other hand, you misunderstood my "natural ally" concept.
It isnt so much about cultural affinity (though arguably, Shia are quiet pro-Russian and vice versa and they all consider themselves the "resistance axis" against West)

There are
1-geographic
2- institutional
3- political
4-historical
5-demographic

Reasons for the "natural" alliance

For instance, Turkey and Russia are in competing geographies. Turkey as a relatively strong nation, is bulwark against Russian expansion. It is always a potential threat as a strong economy with a large population. It controls the bosphorus and contains Russia in that space.

Russia has a massive muslim population which islamo-nationalist turkey can gain a lot of influence on.

Turkish people are pro-caucusian independence while russian people are pro-armenia and greece

In historical memory, these nations had always been at war. There is a general dislike of the russians from distant history to recent history(from USSR's demanding of land from Turkey in cold war which led us to NATO in the first place to Russian affinity to Serbs, the "butchers of muslim brothers".)

The 2 countries are more of competitors in many fields rather than having complementary relations. Their relatively level power prevents a stable relation like in the Us-led Western alliance both in military and economics.

On the other hand, the political structure, say in Syria are deeply tied to Russia for decades.
While Turkey adopted western instutions/ideals for DECADES, as it absorbed cultural affinity(at least in the developed and economic centres of country -which voted against erdoğan in the last municipal elections-, urban populations and among big-capital business)
Even the conservative turks are much more prone to sending their kids to europe rather than russia or china as polls still suggest.

Syria's bureaucracy/military and political culture on the other hand comes from decades of pro-Russian influences. Baathist model evolved by taking Russia as an example.
Their "deep" state ideology and political culture feels a lot closer to Russian way of doing things than Western.
While Erdoğan is pushing the limits, in Turkey, people, institutions, big capital, scivil society etc even Erdoğan supporters still take EU as an example of ideal governance.
It will be odd to say this but even democracy has a longer history in Turkey(19th century) than in Russia(pretty much never ).

While not in an ideal way, Turkish people still put a lot of faith in a ballotbox compared to Russia who is used to rule of oligarchic groups...much like in Syria.

I am not even going to mention decades of Soviet military doctrine in Syria vs Nato doctrine in Turkey among military elite and local inflential military-industrial complexes which deeply impact the identity of a state in international positioning.

Syrians(the baathist regime-culture that is) and Russians can benefit each other sustainably a lot more than Turkey-Russia.

[PointOfViewGun]

The only reason Turkey-russia gets close is due to Turkey's urgent desire for an alternative.
Russian giving anything meaningful to Turkey to make it self-sufficient, especially given that Turkey is more likely to be an adversary on the long-run against Russia, is unlikely.
Turkey is a capable country despite a horrible management. I believe it is far from its potential, but it has a strong state-tradition that is capapble of developing military means.
That is something turkey did at the expense of everything else for decades. Despite all the brain drain, we have dedicated young engineers and a lively military-industry eco-system.
In military, you want dependent partners. Not partners that will go on their own way on the long run.
I personally do not believe Russia wll give any meaningful tech to Turkey.
But this is just my logic-speculation. So take it as you will..

Russia giving off S-400s while it's developing S-500s is worth a lot for Russia as it steps its military industry to the next step.

What kind of BS is this? Turkish Forces relies on NATO Standards and Infrastructure and how in the Hell is the S-400 superior against the Aegis Combat System? Turkey is part of NATO and relies on NATO Air Defense Network then just owning some Batteries of S-400´s and Russian Air Defense Network also just didn´t work with only some S-Series Batteries/SAM´s. You did not decide Purchase of Next-Gen Fighters just over the Night - But i guess this happened on the Part of S-400´s.

This is Bad for Turkey and in my Opinion also for the USA - the winner of this rumble in any case is Russia.

This is not True - If we just look at the Parts of how an F-16 being assembled we will clearly see that Turkey will definitely lack of some Important Parts for their F-16 Fleet and furthermore Turkish Fleet has just a few new F-16s of Block 50 Series - some others old ones got a life extension but their Fuselage are old.

US will even not Sell some F16 Block 70 Series to Turkey and you cannot use oldtimers all the time without the Fact getting outclassed from the Competition.

There will be no TAI TF-X Project since neither BAE (UK) nor any serious Company in this Business are Part of the Project anymore for some known Reasons. TF-X was also not really designed to replace the F-35 - moreover the TF-X Project would gain more from the Experience of an F-35 then not having it. Even some manufacturing of the F-35 Parts was made in Turkey - now this is gone.

That´s not true and we do also not clearly not knew what the US Package that was offered to Turkey included - Turkey wanted firstly chinese System since it got also offered with some serious Technology Sharing and Turkey and China did those Military Business also in the past. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...e-choice-24921

Turkey even got offer to participate on the THAAD Project and some known one refused it - long time ago.

The Real Question here are:

1. Did Turkey even made an serious move to Purchase Patriots from US? Can someone here clearly provide us an Source in this case?
2. What was the Reason not choosing the European Counterpart? As i know there was no struggling between supplier-customer.
3. Which S-400 Version Turkey now get? Will they even able to use as it´s known to be effective or will it only some junk for Political Shows?
4. Russia even don´t really wanted Sell to China those Systems for known reasons, why they would give this to an Official Ally of your archenemy which even was in the past your Enemy?

S-400s are much better than the Patriot system. That's pretty much an established fact. The fact that Turkey uses NATO standards doesn't really change that.

F-16s getting old is one thing, lacking spare parts is an other. Neither you nor I have inventory on what parts Turkey possess but even foreign media picked up on the stories of Turkey hoarding F-16 parts for some time now. I know that to be a fact from my personal contacts.

You have sources on foreign participants on TAI TF-X project abandoning the project? TAI TF-X doesn't need to replace F-35s. In all likelihood, Turkey will not have to combat F-35s in the next decade or so. Turkey simply needs a capable fighter.

The Chinese system was selected initially as it was the cheapest and allowed full technology transfer. It was not cancelled for the pleasure of Erdoğan but it was cancelled because the company that was selling the system was on the black list.

Patriot systems does cost a lot more, twice as more, and Turkey did try to buy them before.

THAAD system is an anti-ballistic missile defense system. It's irrelevant in this discussion.

[Love Mountain]

On the other hand, you misunderstood my "natural ally" concept.
It isnt so much about cultural affinity (though arguably, Shia are quiet pro-Russian and vice versa and they all consider themselves the "resistance axis" against West)

There are
1-geographic
2- institutional
3- political
4-historical
5-demographic

Reasons for the "natural" alliance

For instance, Turkey and Russia are in competing geographies. Turkey as a relatively strong nation, is bulwark against Russian expansion. It is always a potential threat as a strong economy with a large population. It controls the bosphorus and contains Russia in that space.

Russia has a massive muslim population which islamo-nationalist turkey can gain a lot of influence on.

Turkish people are pro-caucusian independence while russian people are pro-armenia and greece

In historical memory, these nations had always been at war. There is a general dislike of the russians from distant history to recent history(from USSR's demanding of land from Turkey in cold war which led us to NATO in the first place to Russian affinity to Serbs, the "butchers of muslim brothers".)

The 2 countries are more of competitors in many fields rather than having complementary relations. Their relatively level power prevents a stable relation like in the Us-led Western alliance both in military and economics.

On the other hand, the political structure, say in Syria are deeply tied to Russia for decades.
While Turkey adopted western instutions/ideals for DECADES, as it absorbed cultural affinity(at least in the developed and economic centres of country -which voted against erdoğan in the last municipal elections-, urban populations and among big-capital business)
Even the conservative turks are much more prone to sending their kids to europe rather than russia or china as polls still suggest.

Syria's bureaucracy/military and political culture on the other hand comes from decades of pro-Russian influences. Baathist model evolved by taking Russia as an example.
Their "deep" state ideology and political culture feels a lot closer to Russian way of doing things than Western.
While Erdoğan is pushing the limits, in Turkey, people, institutions, big capital, scivil society etc even Erdoğan supporters still take EU as an example of ideal governance.
It will be odd to say this but even democracy has a longer history in Turkey(19th century) than in Russia(pretty much never ).

While not in an ideal way, Turkish people still put a lot of faith in a ballotbox compared to Russia who is used to rule of oligarchic groups...much like in Syria.

I am not even going to mention decades of Soviet military doctrine in Syria vs Nato doctrine in Turkey among military elite and local inflential military-industrial complexes which deeply impact the identity of a state in international positioning.

Syrians(the baathist regime-culture that is) and Russians can benefit each other sustainably a lot more than Turkey-Russia.

Well I don't disagree with you here. I merely don't think that any Middle Eastern country has any affinity for Russia, except for Israel. The only reason Russia is making headway in the Middle East, is because there are many, many states that are limited by US presence in the Middle East. Russia serves as an important counterbalance and has shown a willingness to use force in order to rearrange the board there. China has not displayed that willingness to fight.

But, if for example there was no Syrian Civil War, Russia could've been kicked out of Middle East entirely and its arms exports replaced by China. If United States pulled out of the Middle East tomorrow and forgot about the area, Russia would probably be kicked out. Probably not out of Syria, but likely from everywhere else.

[Kyriakos]

I think it makes sense for Turkey to leave Nato. Moreover when it can rely on a traditional ally like Russia - in a US-Turkey war, you can be sure Russia will give af. Maybe also seek China as an ally, given the Chinese world always likes muslims and turkics in particular.
I am being sarcastic, obviously.
Anyway, Turkey can barely defeat some militants in the desert, it is in no position to wage war on any half-serious military power.