Ambush 95% chance, fails every time

[ABullishBear]

I'm trying to ambush an army, at a spot with 95% chance of success, yet it fails every single time I reload.
I am certain the dice gets rolled on every reload, as I've had an ambush that failed not fail upon reload.

What item/skills/traits/whatever else could be responsible for turning an almost 100% chance into a maybe 0% but likely just really low chance instead?
I've tried 20 times now, so the odds must be incredibly low or nonexistant.

Thank you for your time.

[ZhongBoy]

I don’t know if this is helpful, but I believe that the game rolls many things ahead of time to prevent save-scumming. You could probably move to the save before you went into ambush mode and try again to reroll.

[ABullishBear]

I've moved the troops over and over, then went back into ambush mode, fails everytime.
The moving to a different location should solve the preroll thing if that is the case, however no change whatsoever.
It's something specifically about that army.

I've captured and recruited their commanding general however there is nothing in his skills or items to explain this.

Perhaps it was one or both of the other generals, but they died.

[ZhongBoy]

I've moved the troops over and over, then went back into ambush mode, fails everytime.
The moving to a different location should solve the preroll thing if that is the case, however no change whatsoever.
It's something specifically about that army.

I've captured and recruited their commanding general however there is nothing in his skills or items to explain this.

Perhaps it was one or both of the other generals, but they died.

In previous Total War games, I’ve heard that the game generated a seed for the game that would predetermine some things in the game. I’m not sure if it happened here, but it could be possible that the game had already determined whether or not your ambush stance would fail well before you attempted to ambush them. I think this roll could’ve been generated when you changed your chance to successfully ambush to 95%, but I’m not sure.

[ABullishBear]

Looks like you are right, and I am wrong.

I've tried to verify wether or not ambushes are pre rolled, with a 70% chance ambush that originally succeeded.
I've reloaded about 10-15 times, with a 70% chance that should provide a scenario where the ambush fails.
However, it did not.

Which raises more questions:

1:
If I originally was in a 70% chance ambush area, and I reload and move into a 95% chance area, how can the game justify using the same roll it did for 70% chance?
That doesn't make any sense, whatsoever.

2:
How is it any concern of CA wether or not someone save-scums?
You're playing a campaign where you spend 10's or even hundreds of hours building up your thing, if you can avoid a seriously bad outcome, quite possibly to save your campaign(though unlikely that it would matter),
why would CA rather have the player not be able to change the outcome, or take an alternate path in a campaign?

With how moddable the game is, there is no such thing as a "correct way to play the game", nor any verified integrity of the challenge of it.

Thank you very much for your time ZhongBoy,
and have a brilliant day

[Gaius Baltar]

In past series sometimes if you performed an action somewhere else on the map, for example, moved an army or character, this would have an effect on autocalc possibilities ( I assume because it affected calculations).

[ABullishBear]

I'll have a look when I find some time

[A Barbarian]

What VanZandt said. You have to trigger the game engine to use the current 'random' number somewhere else in the game. After that you have a 95% chance that the next 'random' number is 95 or lower.