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Thread: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

  1. #1

    Default 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Apparently, Trump ordered a strike on Iran and called it off last minute. This can be the day thousands of people from USA and Iran didn't end up dying. There is little detail so far but war drums on an attack from USA on Iran is getting louder, especially with the latest attacks on two tankers. We know Trump is not exactly on board to attack Iran like this but people in his administration, National Security Adviser John Bolton or Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to be exact, are seemingly rooting for it.

    Donald Trump 'cancelled Iran strikes with planes in the air'
    Donald Trump reportedly gave initial approval for the US military to launch strikes on Iran in retaliation for Tehran shooting down an American drone, before pulling back at the last minute.
    Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down on Thursday night, the New York Times quoted an unnamed official as saying.
    Earlier, Iran shot down a USA drone claiming that the drone entered their airspace while USA objected to the claim. The aircraft that was shot down was a Global Hawk drone. The fact that Iran could shoot down a highly advanced drone like this one is a whole issue in itself.

    Are we on the last steps of a hot conflict between Iran and USA?

    EDIT: Damn... This became the 30,001st post...
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  2. #2
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Earlier, Iran shot down a USA drone claiming that the drone entered their airspace while USA objected to the claim. The aircraft that was shot down was a Global Hawk drone. The fact that Iran could shoot down a highly advanced drone like this one is a whole issue in itself.
    Not really, or rather it was obvious it would happen. Firs as far as I can tell drones do not carry counter measures similar to warplanes. Second they are slow. Finally that basically came of age fighting the forever war on global terror. Jihad joe in Astan or Iraq or Sudan does not have AA more sophisticated than maybe a 50 cal or a small auto cannon. Facing a peer or even organized second tier power they were always going to get swatted out of the sky like passenger pidgins

    Are we on the last steps of a hot conflict between Iran and USA?
    Assuming Iran is really to provoke and all attacks are there. I assume the Hardliners will give it another go and now Trump will not be able to back down. It seems his communications attempts were rebuffed as well - funny that after walking away from Obama's deal. So I don't see war Bolton might want regime change but I don'k the republican senate will stomach war. But the US will likely go with like Operation Praying mantis drive the Iranians into port, sink ships, probably attack missile sites, etc. I pretty sure the Pentagon will be choosy and look to avoid any PR disaster civilian deaths. And then I guess we how Iran reacts. I the USN is keeping an eye on their subs
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  3. #3
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Well it's been a while since the last significant conflict. The US military-industrial complex needs to get rid of some stock, how else can it keep recycling money.

    So yes, it's possible.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Looks like Trump blinked first.

  5. #5

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    I don't know how popular a Middle Eastern war will be with Trump's base, which is what I think his "blinking" is about. That said, they seem to forgive him for everything else, so I don't see why a war would be any different.
    They give birth astride of a grave, the light gleams an instant, then it's night once more.

  6. #6

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Well it's been a while since the last significant conflict. The US military-industrial complex needs to get rid of some stock, how else can it keep recycling money.

    So yes, it's possible.
    I'm not sure if 17 years and still running can't be called insignificant...
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  7. #7

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    War with Iran is ing insane. There is no justification for it.

  8. #8

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Is this what America has become?

    Afraid of attacking a third rate power? My god, America is truly in decline, lacking the stones to even go to war.

  9. #9

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Looks like Trump canceled the attack 10 minutes before the missile fires. Why did he green light the attacks and why did he cancel them in the last minute?
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  10. #10
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Looks like trump is trying to avoid a war, and the neo cons and war mongers are fighting this decision and will probably be already in the midst of preparing a declaration of war, but trump will not go down without a fight guaranteed. Three years ago he promised the people not to engage in pointless wars and it seems he is probably honouring this, although I am firmly in doubt.

  11. #11

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Quote Originally Posted by GasMask View Post
    Looks like trump is trying to avoid a war, and the neo cons and war mongers are fighting this decision and will probably be already in the midst of preparing a declaration of war, but trump will not go down without a fight guaranteed. Three years ago he promised the people not to engage in pointless wars and it seems he is probably honouring this, although I am firmly in doubt.
    Why did he ordered the strikes in the first place before canceling them? Was he lied to by his own administration?
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  12. #12
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Why did he ordered the strikes in the first place before canceling them? Was he lied to by his own administration?
    My guess is his generals probably asked for permission to strike and trump agreed, but shortly after questioned the impact on life and potential war and decided to force his generals to abort?.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Quote Originally Posted by GasMask View Post
    My guess is his generals probably asked for permission to strike and trump agreed, but shortly after questioned the impact on life and potential war and decided to force his generals to abort?.

    Except that is just Trump's narrative the one from officials is that an estimated the impact and loss of life is always part of briefing, maybe he was taking a nap and missed it.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  14. #14

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    It looks like Trump is actually first president in decades to consider human casualties before "exporting democracy".

  15. #15
    Gigantus's Avatar The trouble with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and trying to put things in it
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    LOl, what happened to the sign on Donald's desk? You know: 'the buck stops here'.

    That said: his comment why the attack got stopped minutes before execution is probably the scariest thing yet in my opinion:

    1. the commander in chief needs to sign off on attacks like that
    2. every operation description\summary has a collateral damage estimate by default

    That leave two options:

    A. he didn't read the attack brief before ordering the attack
    B. he read the brief and wasn't bothered about the CDE (he isn't exactly emphatic if prior actions\reactions are anything to go by)

    Let's all then give praise to the unnamed, lucid staffer that must have gotten through to him that after the 'if it had been a manned vehicle..' comment to go and kill approximately 150 Iranian personnel would be a PR night mare of FUBAR proportions. Given the above that would seem the only plausible scenario of what happened.

    And what's with the 'obliteration' remark? Does the man have a dick problem that he has to compensate by swinging around the government's dick all the time? On the other hand that's one step closer to the 'beautiful' letter level, if the North Korean development is anything to go by.



  16. #16

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/22/u...n-strikes.html

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  17. #17

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Just posturing. In truth, Iran is more useful for USA as bogeyman than as a crater.

  18. #18
    Cookiegod's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    It looks like Trump is actually first president in decades to consider human casualties before "exporting democracy".
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/22/u...n-strikes.html

    From my phone so I don’t have much room to say more than you’re wrong.
    True. He doesn't care about human casualties either. It's the economy, stupid!

    In all seriousness: I am very sceptical Trump actually planned on carrying out air strikes on Iran in this particular instance.
    Thing is: He started out characterising the drone shot down as a "mistake", thereby giving the Iranians an opportunity to wiggle themselves out of this.
    But Iran didn't play ball. They clarified AFTER Trumps initial statements that they knew fully well what they were doing.
    And it really doesn't matter where the drone was shot down. The Iranian claim has a higher likelihood of being correct, since they published their data quicker and the US published erroneous flight data; but at the end of the day, the signals from both countries were the same: The US was flying armed along the Iranian coast as a posturing move and doing reconnaissance. Any information gathered by it would have likely be used in possible US airstrikes. Iran showed clearly the country will not accept such threats.

    I do not think Trump wants the war. But a big chunk of his administration undeniably does, as well as some of its key allies in that region (especially Israel & Saudi Arabia).
    Iran on the other hand doesn't want the war either, but has changed its attitude significantly, showing there are only so many punches to the nose it is willing to take.

    One final thing to note: The loss of lives in this military stand-off has so far been much lower than the body count from the US sanctions against the country.
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  19. #19

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    The USA shouldn't be flying drones over Iranian airspace anyways. I don't know what makes Iran so special, why is America so obsessed with attacking/sanctioning them? It's definitely not a great regime but other countries shouldn't meddle in other countries politics unless there is a genocide going on or something. War with Iran is not going to solve anything, look at Iraq and Afghanistan.

  20. #20

    Default Re: 2019 Iran - USA War... Almost

    God Bless Trump the Merciful. Pompeo, Bolton, Ben Shapiro and the rest of the Neocon garbage.

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