What if D day had failed

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

MacArthur's real failures were in not defending the Philippines. Other than this the Pacific campaign was fine in my opinion. Granted I have criticized MacArthur for wanting to invade the Philippines and Indonesia in 1944 instead of Taiwan. I don't think that this was really a game changing decision.

Part of me thinks that there is no point in attacking Philippines and Indonesia since the Japanese didn't seem to be capable of sending convoys of resources back to Japan and could easily be intercepted by the USN, especially if they had just taken Taiwan and cut off the Japanese.

On the other hand I kind of get the feeling that the decision to invade the Philippines and Indonesia was calculated not only to give the Army time to prepare for Operation Downfall but also to give a psychological shock to the Japanese. Taking Taiwan would be helpful in the Pacific but the Army never intended to engage the Japanese on mainland China, especially when they could just attack Japan directly. Neither Chiang nor Mao showed any indications that they would roll up the IJA on the mainland either. So I'm not sure that taking Taiwan would be very helpful to the Chinese, but it is often part of the Formosa argument. When in fact FDR had largely shifted his policy with regards to China, recalling Stilwell, believing that USA could come to an agreement with Mao and generally just giving Chiang equipment. Chiang was not willing to fight by FDR's rules and he was not willing to carry out massive and costly offensives to retake China, when he could just wait for the USN to blockade Japan.

Actually I think that MacArthur gets way too much criticism, especially later on for Korea. When not enough criticism is directed towards the civilian authorities. Truman probably was as impotent as they claim.

All of these questions are worth investigating. Crucial to the argument would be what sort of preparations the Japanese made to defend Taiwan. For all I know the Americans would be in for another Okinawa and Iwo Jima type of scenario. So the Philippines and a few areas of Indonesia probably were much easier targets at least operationally and in terms of IJA troop deployments and dispersals. Also it isn't like the USN didn't want to wipe out what remained of the USN which was largely concentrated around the Philippines.

[Gaidin]

Actually I think that MacArthur gets way too much criticism, especially later on for Korea. When not enough criticism is directed towards the civilian authorities. Truman probably was as impotent as they claim.

MacArthur only felt deployment of nuclear weapons was the General's decision, not the President. He also felt a land war in Asia against China was a good idea. That's uhh...brilliant.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

That isn't even what I'm referring to though. The actual defeat at the hands of the Chinese had less to do with MacArthur and more to do with MacArthur having to follow orders from Truman. At the very least MacArthur could have tried to block off the Chinese from entering North Korea, but Truman not only underestimated Mao's resolve, he also completely misread Mao's intentions. So the end result was Truman ordering MacArthur not to antagonize the Chinese in any way and basically languishing in North Korea until they were hit in the weak spot by a concentrated Chinese offensive. It is worth noting that MacArthur had also advocated conventional means to attack Chinese depots in Manchuria, which were being used to supply the DPRK troops and would of course be used to allow the Chinese entry into Korea. Mao had already taken the decision to intervene in Korea since July/August 1950. A war with China would not necessarily have to escalate into a war on mainland China itself. The USN and USAF would have no trouble blockading China and the actual war could be fought on Korean soil. Just like it was done anyway.

[Gaidin]

That isn't even what I'm referring to though. The actual defeat at the hands of the Chinese had less to do with MacArthur and more to do with MacArthur having to follow orders from Truman. At the very least MacArthur could have tried to block off the Chinese from entering North Korea, but Truman not only underestimated Mao's resolve, he also completely misread Mao's intentions. So the end result was Truman ordering MacArthur not to antagonize the Chinese in any way and basically languishing in North Korea until they were hit in the weak spot by a concentrated Chinese offensive. It is worth noting that MacArthur had also advocated conventional means to attack Chinese depots in Manchuria, which were being used to supply the DPRK troops and would of course be used to allow the Chinese entry into Korea. Mao had already taken the decision to intervene in Korea since July/August 1950. A war with China would not necessarily have to escalate into a war on mainland China itself. The USN and USAF would have no trouble blockading China and the actual war could be fought on Korean soil. Just like it was done anyway.

And yet when you get down to it, the Chinese held back in Korea in much the same way we held back against them. Much post-historical analysis believes that not only if we pushed to far would the Chinese have come down like a huge cinderblock but about 500,000 Soviet troops(nevermind the Soviet submarines that could've torn apart our navy) would've as well. On top of that, the Chinese spent the entire time helping the North Koreans with the peninsula and only the peninsula. If we well and truly provoked the Chinese they could've expanded their operations to use air-power against front-line troops, communications lines, ports, naval air forces, or staging bases in Japan. Simply fighting on the peninsula had already tied down our air power. What the living hell do you think MacArthur's desire for a Total Victory would've done? Mac was properly relieved for fighting Korea in the WW2 fashion.

What you need to do is go over all the congressional testimony about this sometime. Especially once you learn that Mac ran Korea from Tokyo, not once setting foot on the damn peninsula and not having a good experience what was going on there.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

It didn't have to be a "Total Victory" is my point though. Even assuming the war isn't expanded into China, it makes sense to hit Chinese supply depots and infrastructure to prevent them from staging the advance into Korea. It didn't have to be a response like waging war in China or nuking China.

No way, I can't see any chance for the PLAAF to retaliate against US assets. Especially because the PRC air fleet was not created until 1949 and was largely flying old WW2 Soviet planes. A few MiG-15 wouldn't significantly change Chinese capabilities either. Also keeping in mind that the PRC was simultaneously fighting in Tibet, insurgencies all across their western provinces, several campaigns in the South China Sea. Then Eisenhower almost escalating with China during the Taiwan Straits Crisis in 1954. It is pretty clear that Chinese capabilities were limited and that China was not willing to outright engage America, much less the West as a whole, in an open conflict.

[Gaidin]

So you're telling me that people lied during testimony regarding Chinese capabilities during the Korean War. Or...they purposely misled Truman during the war as to what they believed those capabilities to be in order to derive a certain decision from Truman? Or that, Mac didn't really want Total Victory even though it's well known that's really what he wanted?

Well...which? Personally I think it's impressive they maintained this supposed facade in front of BOTH the legislative and executive. Must be some truth they're dancing around then... Harder to maintain such a wall of lies than you think.

No matter what, at the end of the day, when it comes down to it. Mac broke Constitutional law and defied Presidential orders. Thus he was removed from command.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

OR they were wrong about Chinese capabilities? So you be saying that the Chinese couldn't even win the island campaign against Taiwan in 1954 or in 1958 and somehow the PLA is supposed to btfo the Americans if the Korean War escalated? Can't even hit Taiwan but they could somehow wipe out positions in Japan?

Not sure what Constitution has to do with what I'm talking about. That is basically a different matter.

[Gaidin]

I didn't say they couldn't be wrong. I'm asking you if they intentionally misled both the Executive(in advising Truman) and the Legislature(in later testimony) to bring about certain decisions. Were they advising as to what they legitimately believed facts were? Or were they lying the entire time? Pick one.

One thing is certain. No matter what, Mac broke Constitutional law and defied Presidential Orders. Thus he was removed from command.