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Thread: Conservative leadership election.

  1. #21
    QuintusSertorius's Avatar EBII Hod Carrier
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    How do you know how I vote? Not that it is a matter for debate. And feck the old scrotes who call themselves the Tory grassroots, I deal with actual Parliamentarians. Its axiomatic that tacking to the wrong direction has parties losing voters in both directions. Only a true racist can satisfy racists but at the expense of civilised voters. Only a true Brexiteer and in my view there is only one that is credible, Farage can be 'convincing' on this issue, Anyone aping him will not only fall short, restrained by Parliamentary procedure, they will lose much of the remain element of their party. It happened to Labour when they tacked rightwards in panic over the BNP in the early 2000s to the benefit of the Liberals (where are the BNP now?)It's clearly happened with the Tories. Brexit would not have been an issue if Camoron had not panicked over one Euro election result.

    If Gove got the job the Tories would be finished because he's a hate figure, almost designed to take a milkshake. But he is also relatively competent and if he can find a way to buy time to get an effective solution to the clusterfeck that is Brexit, I am satified he will make the effort. That is the best hope to save the rest of the party. The more unthinking Brexiteers are lost to the party and will die off in a few years in any event. Someone needs to tell the electorate the truth, Brexit isn't happening until the Parliamentary arithmatic changes.
    Your metropolitan, Guardianista sneer comes through clearly in everything you post, don't worry. Which is no doubt why you hold such contempt for the people who make political parties actually win elections. How do you expect your vaunted Parliamentarian chums are going to win their seats without any activists? Have you heard how wonderfully things are going in Peterborough for the Conservatives and Labour?

    You really don't get it, Cameron only won the 2015 election, breaking the clear pattern for hung Parliaments we returned to in 2017, because he promised a referendum. Had he not "panicked" we'd have been right back to 2010, instead of a surprise majority that May threw away (and what a relief she did).

    Gove isn't competent, he just talks a good game and has no principles. I've had the misfortune to meet him, an utterly forgettable experience it was, too. As for Parliamentary arithmetic, I think you overstate the supposed conviction of the hardline Remainers in the Conservative party. Faced with losing their jobs at a snap election (which many of them will), they'll suddenly find a way to accommodate a real Brexit and hanging on to their seat til 2022.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; June 04, 2019 at 05:08 AM. Reason: Unnecessary.

  2. #22

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Your metropolitan, Guardianista sneer comes through clearly in everything you post, don't worry. You sound just like a bubble-dweller, which is no doubt why you hold such contempt for the people who make political parties actually win elections. How do you expect your vaunted Parliamentarian chums are going to win their seats without any activists? Have you heard how wonderfully things are going in Peterborough for the Conservatives and Labour?
    I'm not sure this is a fair representation of his arguments; most of them strike me as belonging to the old Labour left.

    You really don't get it, Cameron only won the 2015 election, breaking the clear pattern for hung Parliaments we returned to in 2017, because he promised a referendum. Had he not "panicked" we'd have been right back to 2010, instead of a surprise majority that May threw away (and what a relief she did).
    Mongrel appears to believe that Euroscepticsm began in 2014 and that Brexit, far from being the culmination of 25 years worth of tension over the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union, was solely engineered by the Cameron administration. This being despite the fact that the United Kingdom (and England before her) has had uniquely turbulent relations with pan-European treaties and institutions for centuries.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; June 03, 2019 at 06:33 PM.

  3. #23

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Your metropolitan, Guardianista sneer comes through clearly in everything you post, don't worry. You sound just like a bubble-dweller, which is no doubt why you hold such contempt for the people who make political parties actually win elections. How do you expect your vaunted Parliamentarian chums are going to win their seats without any activists? Have you heard how wonderfully things are going in Peterborough for the Conservatives and Labour?

    You really don't get it, Cameron only won the 2015 election, breaking the clear pattern for hung Parliaments we returned to in 2017, because he promised a referendum. Had he not "panicked" we'd have been right back to 2010, instead of a surprise majority that May threw away (and what a relief she did).

    Gove isn't competent, he just talks a good game and has no principles. I've had the misfortune to meet him, an utterly forgettable experience it was, too. As for Parliamentary arithmetic, I think you overstate the supposed conviction of the hardline Remainers in the Conservative party. Faced with losing their jobs at a snap election (which many of them will), they'll suddenly find a way to accommodate a real Brexit and hanging on to their seat til 2022.
    Again a content free personal attack to start the day. One would suggest things like bedroom tax, a decade old pay freeze for public sector workers, low pay generally, cuts in benefits for working people, the disabled and the unwaged, cuts in the Police, Armed forces, schools , social housing, the unlawful deportation of actual UK citizens for no reason and pointless privatisation (have I missed anything out) is the reason why the age of the average Tory activists being around 57. THe party is literally dying.

    Cameron did indeed promise a referendum and people were daft enough to buy it. Had Ed won, austerity would have been done with, and the rampant bigotfest that is Brexit could have been avoided. But there again, I've found Brexit quite lucrative so I'm conflicted.

    I didn't say Gove was a nice man, but he knows his briefs and how to run a department, certainly more than Boris Johnson.

    It was the so-called conviction of Brexit hsardliners who prevented May from getting a Brexit deal through Parliament, or have you forgotten? The is no time to renegotiate, not that the EU will do so and Parliament has insisted that no-deal is ruled out. A herd of unicorns isn't going to magically appear on 31 October. Only revocation or a referendum will buy the Tories enough time to find a solution to their dilemna.


    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post



    Mongrel appears to believe that Euroscepticsm began in 2014 and that Brexit, far from being the culmination of 25 years worth of tension over the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union, was solely engineered by the Cameron administration. This being despite the fact that the United Kingdom (and England before her) has had uniquely turbulent relations with pan-European treaties and institutions for centuries.
    Mongrel is old enough to remember when the Eurosceptic was led by one Tony Benn. As Mongrel is not a Tory leadership candidate he'd rather these fairy tales about his opinions stop now.
    Last edited by mongrel; June 03, 2019 at 09:51 PM.
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  4. #24

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    I remember when Corbyn had a shred of integrity and campaigned from the backbench to leave the EU. Funny how the sniff of power brings out the hypocritical tyrant

  5. #25
    QuintusSertorius's Avatar EBII Hod Carrier
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Again a content free personal attack to start the day. One would suggest things like bedroom tax, a decade old pay freeze for public sector workers, low pay generally, cuts in benefits for working people, the disabled and the unwaged, cuts in the Police, Armed forces, schools , social housing, the unlawful deportation of actual UK citizens for no reason and pointless privatisation (have I missed anything out) is the reason why the age of the average Tory activists being around 57. THe party is literally dying.

    Cameron did indeed promise a referendum and people were daft enough to buy it. Had Ed won, austerity would have been done with, and the rampant bigotfest that is Brexit could have been avoided. But there again, I've found Brexit quite lucrative so I'm conflicted.

    I didn't say Gove was a nice man, but he knows his briefs and how to run a department, certainly more than Boris Johnson.
    Your every post is dripping with condescension and snide swipes at anyone who dares have a different opinion, attempts to tar with guilt by association, along with liberal projection of your hatred of "bigots" all around the country, yet you're precious about being called on it? Get over yourself.

    Sorry, what austerity? You keep repeating that Labour stand-by without substantiating it beyond the soundbite. Brown was merrily p*ssing money away to buy votes, by the time he was done an economy once on sound footing was one of the worst basket cases in Europe. The credit crunch was only the straw the broke the camel's back.

    "Bedroom tax", "Tory", "austerity", "pointless privatisation", your heavy use of the Guardian as a primary source - Blairite (or is it Brownite/Millibandite?) all over.

    Wow, Gove runs a department better than Johnson. What a ringing endorsement that is. But I notice you've given him the technocrat's thumbs up because you think he's "competent".

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    It was the so-called conviction of Brexit hsardliners who prevented May from getting a Brexit deal through Parliament, or have you forgotten? The is no time to renegotiate, not that the EU will do so and Parliament has insisted that no-deal is ruled out. A herd of unicorns isn't going to magically appear on 31 October. Only revocation or a referendum will buy the Tories enough time to find a solution to their dilemna.
    I can only assume if you really believe the Withdrawal Agreement dictated to May is a "Brexit deal", that you're either never read it, or you're just disingenuous for fun. May's steaming turd isn't Brexit, isn't a good "deal" and isn't even anything more than the first stage of a deliberately protracted process designed to make the UK recant. Doesn't surprise me that a bubble-dweller believes the nonsense coming out of Number 10 in framing the problem as you have.

    Parliament can try to "rule out" whatever it likes, the law is that we leave with or without a deal on 31st October. I'm also looking with interest to Robin Tilbrook's case, we may have already left given May's request for extension could have been illegal.

    Funny that the supposedly immovable WA suddenly becomes mutable again whenever no deal rises in possibility. Never mind that the whole process of negotiation has been utterly pointless when led by someone who just wants to give in, since they don't actually want to go through with leaving.
    Last edited by QuintusSertorius; June 04, 2019 at 04:45 AM.

  6. #26
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    I didn't say Gove was a nice man, but he knows his briefs and how to run a department, certainly more than Boris Johnson.
    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Wow, Gove runs a department better than Johnson. What a ringing endorsement that is. But I notice you've given him the technocrat's thumbs up because you think he's "competent".
    I see Michael Gove feels his past drug taking 20 years ago, needs to be divulged as part of his campaign to be Tory leader.
    Michael Gove: Cocaine 'mistake' a 'deep regret'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48564722
    Drug use and especially cocaine is one of the biggest threats to our society both in the UK and increasingly now across Europe.

    If Mr Gove's confession had come with any ideas to tackle it, perhaps his public expression of regret would have some merit. But I fail to see what this does to his campaign to be PM or the problem of class A drug trafficking. In fact if anything, it can only do harm by making drug use less stigmatising in the public eye, despite his confessional like expressions of regret. I'm astounded to hear some reporters say it shoudn't do any harm to his standing because we are a more "progressive society" I wonder what is progressive about a habit that damages your health and feeds a huge rise in organised crime and associated violence. I can only summise that he knows of person or persons involved in the race to be leader who are practrising users., who knows what the motive!

    What it certainly does show again, is what an absolute shower many of these candidates are and where this country is going. I can only hope if Michael Gove does eventually became leader, he sets out an agenda for takling the evil substance that he dabbled in when a youth. Although given the lack of dialogue about the drug problem right across all the established parties, it would be very surprising indeed. Meanwhile gangland violence continues to escalate and its victims mount up on Britain's streets in order to feed the dirty habitat of affluent progressive metropolitan types.
    Middle-class cocaine users are hypocrites, says Met chief
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-cressida-dick
    Cressida Dick criticises people with progressive politics whose drug use fuels violence.

    The Metropolitan police commissioner has criticised hypocritical middle-class cocaine users who care about fair trade and organic food, but who she said are fuelling the drug trade.
    Last edited by caratacus; June 08, 2019 at 10:40 AM.

  7. #27
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    I see Michael Gove feels his past drug taking 20 years ago, needs to be divulged as part of his campaign to be Tory leader.
    Drug use and especially cocaine is one of the biggest threats to our society both in the UK and increasingly now across Europe.

    If Mr Gove's confession had come with any ideas to tackle it, perhaps his public expression of regret would have some merit. But I fail to see what this does to his campaign to be PM or the problem of class A drug trafficking. In fact if anything, it can only do harm by making drug use less stigmatising in the public eye, despite his confessional like expressions of regret. I'm astounded to hear some reporters say it shoudn't do any harm to his standing because we are a more "progressive society" I wonder what is progressive about a habit that damages your health and feeds a huge rise in organised crime and associated violence. I can only summise that he knows of person or persons involved in the race to be leader who are practrising users., who knows what the motive!

    What it certainly does show again, is what an absolute shower many of these candidates are and where this country is going. I can only hope if Michael Gove does eventually became leader, he sets out an agenda for takling the evil substance that he dabbled in when a youth. Although given the lack of dialogue about the drug problem right across all the established parties, it would be very surprising indeed. Meanwhile gangland violence continues to escalate and its victims mount up on Britain's streets in order to feed the dirty habitat of affluent progressive metropolitan types.
    I suspect his admission has something to do with the book coming out soon about him, indeed just found that confirmed -

    Mr Gove made the confession ahead of a publication of a book about him by journalist Owen Bennett. The book “Michael Gove: A Man in a Hurry” makes the claim that he owned up to use of the Class A substance when put through his paces by advisors during the last leadership contest in 2016
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...Prime-Minister

    So he's essentially trying to 'own' the narrative on his own terms, hoping it won't do too much damage compared to if he just left the book to be published and the media storm to develop.

    Its interesting that Rory Stuart has also admitted to taking Opiates at a wedding he went to in Iran. (Are they trying to one up each other? ). This was more out of the blue, though i suspect with the Tory whips beginning to take sides, their is a lot of 'dirt' potential out there, in what is shaping up to possibly be one of the bloodiest leadership contests in recent Tory history (Indeed it may well end up as i think we've all heard and commented- fracturing the party even further, rather than any candidate being able to unify it). So its best to air the dirty laundry yourself, and early on in the hope as things develop, it'll be less damaging down the road nearer to the votes that count.
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  8. #28

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Your every post is dripping with condescension and snide swipes at anyone who dares have a different opinion, attempts to tar with guilt by association, along with liberal projection of your hatred of "bigots" all around the country, yet you're precious about being called on it? Get over yourself.

    Sorry, what austerity? You keep repeating that Labour stand-by without substantiating it beyond the soundbite. Brown was merrily p*ssing money away to buy votes, by the time he was done an economy once on sound footing was one of the worst basket cases in Europe. The credit crunch was only the straw the broke the camel's back.

    "Bedroom tax", "Tory", "austerity", "pointless privatisation", your heavy use of the Guardian as a primary source - Blairite (or is it Brownite/Millibandite?) all over.

    Wow, Gove runs a department better than Johnson. What a ringing endorsement that is. But I notice you've given him the technocrat's thumbs up because you think he's "competent".
    More content free ranting. As regards austerity, the Guardian didn't appoint Chris Failing to make a hash of our transport system. It's not the Guardian who markitised social housing so that millions working people cannot afford rent without recourse to state benefits. It's not the Guardian that has cut support for the disabled but spends millions on Brexit. I can quite literally riff from and old 60s song for your instruction.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    I can only assume if you really believe the Withdrawal Agreement dictated to May is a "Brexit deal", that you're either never read it, or you're just disingenuous for fun..
    It wasn't dictated to her. I can safety say I was one of the first to read the published article and I was aware of part of the draft. But again why are you discussing my daytime reading material in athread about Tory leaders?


    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    May's steaming turd isn't Brexit, isn't a good "deal" and isn't even anything more than the first stage of a deliberately protracted process designed to make the UK recant. Doesn't surprise me that a bubble-dweller believes the nonsense coming out of Number 10 in framing the problem as you have...

    [Disclaimer Mongrel does not imply 'ownership' of thread.] Should this be in the Brexit thread? I consider May's deal undeliverable, indeed I opened a whole thread on that very point. How hard is that to understand?


    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Parliament can try to "rule out" whatever it likes, the law is that we leave with or without a deal on 31st October. I'm also looking with interest to Robin Tilbrook's case, we may have already left given May's request for extension could have been illegal...
    Parliament has already decided that no-deal is not in the UK's interest. Parliament is sovereign is it not? What's the point of pulling out of the EU otherwise?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    PFunny that the supposedly immovable WA suddenly becomes mutable again whenever no deal rises in possibility. Never mind that the whole process of negotiation has been utterly pointless when led by someone who just wants to give in, since they don't actually want to go through with leaving.
    It would take real balls for the next Tory leader to tell the truth about Brexit. It simply isn't deliverable at this time. Not without giving away Northern Ireland.


    caratacus.


    I think that any Tory leader seriously aspiring to have the UK leave the EU any time soon would be on some kind of banned substance or be hitting the brandy reserves.

    I can image a Tory cabinet minister on Blockbusters, 'Give me an E, Bob'




    Troubled by all this drug revelation stuff. If it ends up knocking out key candidates, the election will end up as farcical as the one that appointed Mrs May.
    Last edited by mongrel; June 09, 2019 at 03:14 PM.
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  9. #29
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    The race is on-

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ader-live-news

    Boris in a clear lead as the others will have to 'build up' to meet him. What is certain is that Boris will be one of the final two as he is passed the 105 line needed to assure that (and thus likely to win if it goes to the membership).

    Rory Stuart surprised some by making it through this first round. Gove didn't do as well as hoped. Hunt is currently second.

    Eliminated- Harper, Mcvey (apparently even the rather...weird...step of sticking a picture of Maraget Thatcher to your podium does not work) and Leadsom.

    What is showing though is this will not restore Tory unity, combined with Hammonds comments about 'bringing down' his own government to prevent 'no-deal', Grieves yesterday for the first time publicly announced he would indeed vote to bring down his own government too if the same line is following. Currently it would only take three Conservatives, based on yesterday's vote there are 11 Conservatives who may be prepared to VoNC any new leader they have to force a GE. There are also rumours that Boris may actually call a GE himself regardless (Either because he feels the parliamentary arithmetic is just not workable, and it really isn't, but also because it would see the Tories lose, and thus prevent brexit from ripping apart the party, and he needs the time to 'reform' the party in his image to be coherent at a future jab at governance in 5 years). A key question mark is Farage's Brexit party. It has been mooted that Farage might step his party down if someone like Boris was elected at any GE, to prevent Labour storming ahead (thanks to FPTP), however this is not from Farage at all and would be a big gamble, as even with Boris, the Brexit Party has the potential to get 'a' parliamentary presence (FPTP makes the extent of this presence essentially unpredictable, as even with their current high vote share, it will not necessarily translate to 'secure' seats).

    EDIT: Now we have Rory Stuart threatening also to split the Tories in the face of the 'winner' (if it isn't him) attempting to take radical measures to delivery brexit:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1560439027

    So, yep. Its rather looking that essentially whoever is Tory leader, does not matter now really, as its increasingly likely their rivals will seek to bring down the entire government, and GE territory at the moment is not a confident or happy prospect for the Tories under any new leader.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; June 13, 2019 at 11:37 AM.
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  10. #30
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    So, yep. Its rather looking that essentially whoever is Tory leader, does not matter now really, as its increasingly likely their rivals will seek to bring down the entire government, and GE territory at the moment is not a confident or happy prospect for the Tories under any new leader.
    Despite the Opposition parties attempt to usurp the government in adminstering parliamentary proceedings loosing yesterday in a vote. It is undoubtably the case that many Remainers within the Tory ranks wil press the self destruct button to thwart leaving the EU without a deal., which is really the only realistic prospect at this stage. I don't know what the bookies odds are an election by December, but I certainly think it would be a favourable bet, because everybodies attention (through the media) is focussed on the Conservative party leadership contest. Johnson's probably is the only realistic chance they have of salvaging what could be an election disaster. If they select any of the others, especially a Remainer like Hunt, they are toast.

    Manwhile one of those parties gearing up for any potential election should this contest end up triggering an election, has been forced to change its name to "The Independent Group for Change."
    However, if they opt for the initials IGC they might be confused for being something to do with the International Growth Centre (IGC) an economic research centre based at the London School of Economics. I'm sure they wouldn't welcome that.
    A much better one would have been the ASP, the Anna Soubry Party

    Change UK applies to change name after legal dispute

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48629838
    Change UK has applied to the Electoral Commission to change its name following a dispute with the petitions website Change.org.
    Last edited by caratacus; June 13, 2019 at 01:56 PM.

  11. #31

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    The race is on-

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ader-live-news

    Boris in a clear lead as the others will have to 'build up' to meet him. What is certain is that Boris will be one of the final two as he is passed the 105 line needed to assure that (and thus likely to win if it goes to the membership).

    Rory Stuart surprised some by making it through this first round. Gove didn't do as well as hoped. Hunt is currently second.

    Eliminated- Harper, Mcvey (apparently even the rather...weird...step of sticking a picture of Maraget Thatcher to your podium does not work) and Leadsom.

    What is showing though is this will not restore Tory unity, combined with Hammonds comments about 'bringing down' his own government to prevent 'no-deal', Grieves yesterday for the first time publicly announced he would indeed vote to bring down his own government too if the same line is following. Currently it would only take three Conservatives, based on yesterday's vote there are 11 Conservatives who may be prepared to VoNC any new leader they have to force a GE. There are also rumours that Boris may actually call a GE himself regardless (Either because he feels the parliamentary arithmetic is just not workable, and it really isn't, but also because it would see the Tories lose, and thus prevent brexit from ripping apart the party, and he needs the time to 'reform' the party in his image to be coherent at a future jab at governance in 5 years). A key question mark is Farage's Brexit party. It has been mooted that Farage might step his party down if someone like Boris was elected at any GE, to prevent Labour storming ahead (thanks to FPTP), however this is not from Farage at all and would be a big gamble, as even with Boris, the Brexit Party has the potential to get 'a' parliamentary presence (FPTP makes the extent of this presence essentially unpredictable, as even with their current high vote share, it will not necessarily translate to 'secure' seats).

    EDIT: Now we have Rory Stuart threatening also to split the Tories in the face of the 'winner' (if it isn't him) attempting to take radical measures to delivery brexit:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1560439027

    So, yep. Its rather looking that essentially whoever is Tory leader, does not matter now really, as its increasingly likely their rivals will seek to bring down the entire government, and GE territory at the moment is not a confident or happy prospect for the Tories under any new leader.
    My impression is that the threats of holding a no-confidence vote are mostly hot air. The GE polling numbers are bad enough as it is, but if Tory MP's were to instigate a collapse of their own government, they'd achieve nothing other than the transition of power to Corbyn and the official entry of Faragism into Westminster.

  12. #32
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    Despite the Opposition parties attempt to usurp the government in adminstering parliamentary proceedings loosing yesterday in a vote. It is undoubtably the case that many Remainers within the Tory ranks wil press the self destruct button to thwart leaving the EU without a deal., which is really the only realistic prospect at this stage. I don't know what the bookies odds are an election by December, but I certainly think it would be a favourable bet, because everybodies attention (through the media) is focussed on the Conservative party leadership contest. Johnson's probably is the only realistic chance they have of salvaging what could be an election disaster. If they select any of the others, especially a Remainer like Hunt, they are toast.
    Indeed, this is my current bet that a snap-GE will either be instigated or forced fairly soon after the leadership.

    Manwhile one of those parties gearing up for any potential election should this contest end up triggering an election, has been forced to change its name to "The Independent Group for Change."
    However, if they opt for the initials IGC they might be confused for being something to do with the International Growth Centre (IGC) an economic research centre based at the London School of Economics. I'm sure they wouldn't welcome that.
    A much better one would have been the ASP, the Anna Soubry Party
    Absolutely love this... i think for certain they take the title of 'worst party in British politics' for the sheer screw-up that has been their existence thus far , its something i'd expect to see referenced in 'The Thick of It' (I so miss that show..), not see actually play out. I'd write in to them with that name change, it certainly will help them avoid the legal entanglements they seem set on having .

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    My impression is that the threats of holding a no-confidence vote are mostly hot air. The GE polling numbers are bad enough as it is, but if Tory MP's were to instigate a collapse of their own government, they'd achieve nothing other than the transition of power to Corbyn and the official entry of Faragism into Westminster.
    Normally i would agree, but the arithmetic for the majority is so tight that it would only take a small number of those seemingly prepared to pull the curtain on their own party for it to happen. The Conservatives have exacerbated this by several local party associations attempting to de-select/no select again their candidates at a GE due to their remain stance- essentially many of those who have threatened to topple the Party, are looking at their own political careers being over no matter what, and if they perceive a Boris 'No-deal' as equally bad as Corbyn, they'll probably do it. At least (in their minds, i make no comment here) five years of Corbyn they probably feel will be enough to see a new, re-invigorated Conservative party back in Office (after Corbyn taking the post-brexit political fallout which will be considerable no matter what happens). They may indeed 'save' their own careers by bringing down the government, as a snap-Ge will mean their associations may not have had the time to properly give them the boot and find another candidate, and moreover a Tory 'loss' will see their new leader (probably Boris) given the boot, or become a 'May-like' figure.

    So for me at least, i think its more up in the air currently.

    It also depends i think on Farage, while i haven't seen it said directly by him (Though their are interviews where he's sorta nodded he might), if Boris or a leaver gets the Tory leadership, Farage might stand his own party down (I'd say this is unlikely though), but if he does, any GE becomes a traditional contest. One in which i would say Boris is by no means sure to win, the problem for the Tories is they lack any candidate currently who can bridge electoral divides to secure a real majority (especially with the loss of needed Tory remain voting electorate). Boris's domestic platform of tax-cuts for the 'wealthy' and embracement of trickle down (which sure he may not follow through on) isn't exactly going to go down well at a GE either, but it will go down well with the Tory membership who he needs to get to be leader.

    So its rather up in the air i think. We'll see though, the Televised leadership debates will be interest, though currently for whatever reason Boris has not committed to them. Its an interesting move, as these sort of public debates can have far reach effects as we've seen indeed with Clegg- propelling a write-off to levels of support beyond what they could ever have wished for. Clegg's boom was to a great extent down to how he came across in the TV debates, so if Boris 'pulls a May' he might be leaving it wide open to another candidate- which would be a mistake as he is lets face, the most charismatic candidate out of all of them.

    EDIT: Just as a general comment on Boris though, what does everyone think of him? For me, i don't see him as 'Leave' or 'Remain', i think he'll switch (as he has done indeed) between both depending on which suits him at the time. So i think if...well when he does win the leadership, there's not really a guarantee currently (given parliamentary arithmetic too) that he'll do the 'hard-brexit' he's advocated previously. I'm not even sure Boris is pro-Conservative necessarily. As Mayor of London, who was pro-service, pro-immigration, liberal SJ and economic champion. Brexit, he adopted a very different line from that which he took to win London. I think he is 'Pro-Boris', so i think it'll be interesting having said all that we have currently, if his election will lead to the kind of brexit he's previously advocated at all, and if his policies will be remotely the same.

    But i don't know, how does everyone feel? For leave voters do you see him as the 'best hope' for brexit currently? Or are you disenchanted/ do not care for him? Or indeed do you see any support for Boris from leavers as being an alliance of convenience so long as Boris is (currently at least) espousing a position you support. From my gut, i would actually have thought Raab (in a purely brexit context) would have been the better man to back (But i get that its unlikely given Boris is running that Raab would stand a chance with the MP's).
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; June 13, 2019 at 03:18 PM.
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  13. #33
    Carmen Sylva's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Has Rory Stuart a chance? At least he's touring through the country to hear the Peoples voice?
    Last edited by Carmen Sylva; June 13, 2019 at 05:36 PM.
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    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Has Rory Stuart a chance? At least he's touring through the country to hear the Peoples voice?
    Rory Stuart is seen in polling as actually tied with Johnson on who the public think would be a good PM. They are both rather low scores though.
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...nson-joint-top

    The caveat being that none of this (yet) is about the wider electorate. The only ones who matter are Tory MP's and their membership who get the final say. If the wider country was a consideration, then none of the candidates are great, as none can bridge the electoral divides needed to get a majority currently, and its highly questionable if they could even hold onto power if the face of a snap GE.

    Saying that Rory Stuart is the second favourite among the party members after Johnson-
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-members-says/

    However, its not a close second by any means, 11% to Johnsons 54%. It does mean he has a better chance than Gove, Hunt etc currently. Though its unlikely those 'big guns' will step aside and give the support needed to get Stuart into second place. However, as we've seen in past leadership contests a lot can change. If Johnson flunks out of the public debates, he might take a hit, especially if someone else is able to 'pull a Clegg'. I don't think its likely though anyone will be able to. Essentially this is very much Johnson's to lose.
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    Carmen Sylva's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    @Dante: Thank you very much for your explanation.

    Matt Hancock has given up. 6 left.

    https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/tories-121.html

    Perhaps because he want to support Stuart?

    By the way Stuart? Is he a Scotsman?
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  16. #36
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Has Rory Stuart a chance? At least he's touring through the country to hear the Peoples voice?
    In Brexit land, the most likely thing to happen is the thing that makes things even messier than they were before. So, based on that alone I'd rule Stewart out. He's the only one of these candidates with some shot at achieving an 'orderly exit'. Boris is also out, because he's the only one who might win a GE if it came to it. The rest are in no-mans-land. They want to renegotiate the deal and won't be able to deliver, and they can't win a GE against Farage: The best combo for enduring chaos and indecision. Between them, it's difficult to choose who would make the biggest mess. Gove would probably fit the bill. His ideas are as daft as any, but with his seemingly innate capacity to engender antipathy and ridicule he's best placed to send the Tory party further down the rabbit hole.
    Last edited by Muizer; June 14, 2019 at 01:17 PM.
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