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Thread: Conservative leadership election.

  1. #1

    Default Conservative leadership election.

    Theresa May has resigned as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party; her leadership will formally cease on 7 June. She will remain as the Prime Minster of the United Kingdom until her successor is chosen as per Conservative Party regulations. May's premiership, which lasted almost three years, will be defined by her failure to secure a Conservative Party majority in the 2017 general election and her subsequent inability to achieve a Parliamentary consensus on the nature of the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union.

    The race to find her replacement will formally begin on 10 June and is expected to be concluded in July. The first stage of the leadership contest involves Conservative Party MP's declaring their candidacies. Each person who nominates themselves needs two "proposers" (other Conservative Party MP's) to support their candidacy. Once the nomination period is closed (within a week of the contest beginning), Tory MP's will then vote in a series of elections to reduce the number of nominees down to two, with the nominee with the smallest number of votes being eliminated each round. The second stage of the contest involves a final round election between the two remaining candidates in which all Conservative Party members are entitled to vote.

    Here is a brief analysis of how Conservative Party leadership elections and a useful chart from the BBC.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    Boris Johnson, a favourite of the party's grassroots and Brexiteer, is currently odds on to win the contest, although it is plausible that his candidacy will be derailed by Conservative MP's prior to the final round. Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt also have reasonably favourable odds of winning.

    The declared candidates so far are: Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom, Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart, Matthew Hancock, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, James Cleverly, Mark Harper, Kit Malthouse Sam Gyimah, and Esther McVey. Other candidates expected to stand are:Amber Rudd Priti Patel, Penny Mordaunt, Sir Graham Brady, Liz Truss, Nicky Morgan, Justine Greening and George Freeman.

    In this thread we discuss the, candidates, the competition the direction of the Tory Party. Whilst there will be some crossover with the Brexit discussion, I thought it was appropriate to open a thread on this particular issue.
    Last edited by Cope; June 02, 2019 at 10:58 AM. Reason: Updating candidate list 2/6/19



  2. #2

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    An assortment of short videos from the Mail featuring some of the candidates:

    General
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    Rory Stewart
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



    Boris Johnson
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    Matt Hancock
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  3. #3
    Jom's Avatar A Place of Greater Safety
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    An interesting question is whether the DUP view themselves as having made a deal with the Conservative government or with Theresa May personally. Any potential leader will need to court them as well as Conservative MPs and members.

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  4. #4
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jom View Post
    An interesting question is whether the DUP view themselves as having made a deal with the Conservative government or with Theresa May personally. Any potential leader will need to court them as well as Conservative MPs and members.
    Indeed, i suspect the DUP will see this as a way of getting further concessions in return for their support as it may imply a very different change in circumstances.

    Another interesting point is that i doubt this leadership battle will actually increase Conservative unity, i suspect it might actually make the factions more hostile to one another than they were under May. We already have Conservative 'moderates' launching a 'Stop Boris' campaign:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...hnson-campaign

    Both in terms of him getting to the leadership, but also its been stated here and previously that significant numbers of Conservative MP's would be willing to vote down a Boris government if he pursued a 'hard brexit'.

    They are helped in this by Labour, who are considering the idea that any new Conservative leader who does not immediately call a GE to gain a mandate, will be face a vote of no confidence initiated by Labour.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...john-mcdonnell

    This presents a major issue for any Conservative candidate who does not unify all parts of their party (Which Boris does not), as it would plunge them into a new GE, which most opinion polls currently have Labour on a clear lead.
    It's also why in terms of leadership prospects, while Boris is the favourite, i don't think he will be allowed to get to the membership vote. He'll split the party too much (And indeed see open revolt potentially it seems). The same though goes for any other Brexiteer or remainer/Soft brexiteer who is taking a hardline approach. This isn't going to be pretty for the Conservatives, and will definitely cause more problems both for their political position, and their party unity than it resolves, it certainly will put internal pressure on any new leader to try and gain a real majority as its not clear they'll have the entire support of the party behind them, they may even be worse-off than May was in this regard. (This all pending some new unifying candidate, who i can't actually see at the moment).

    EDIT: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1558867636

    We not have Raab trying to 'out-do' his rival Boris (as both share essentially the same base-support group). His statement here though will further antagonize the 'moderates', with Hammond also now floating the idea of toppling his own party in the case of a 'hard brexiteer. This is especially the case as Raab has stated no GE until 2022 (for obvious polling reasons and to put as much distance between a GE and brexit as possible, especially as it is apparent he is hoping of re-capturing the majority of Farage's support back to the Conservative fold).
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; May 26, 2019 at 07:17 AM.
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  5. #5

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Indeed, i suspect the DUP will see this as a way of getting further concessions in return for their support as it may imply a very different change in circumstances.

    Another interesting point is that i doubt this leadership battle will actually increase Conservative unity, i suspect it might actually make the factions more hostile to one another than they were under May. We already have Conservative 'moderates' launching a 'Stop Boris' campaign:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...hnson-campaign

    Both in terms of him getting to the leadership, but also its been stated here and previously that significant numbers of Conservative MP's would be willing to vote down a Boris government if he pursued a 'hard brexit'.

    They are helped in this by Labour, who are considering the idea that any new Conservative leader who does not immediately call a GE to gain a mandate, will be face a vote of no confidence initiated by Labour.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...john-mcdonnell

    This presents a major issue for any Conservative candidate who does not unify all parts of their party (Which Boris does not), as it would plunge them into a new GE, which most opinion polls currently have Labour on a clear lead.
    It's also why in terms of leadership prospects, while Boris is the favourite, i don't think he will be allowed to get to the membership vote. He'll split the party too much (And indeed see open revolt potentially it seems). The same though goes for any other Brexiteer or remainer/Soft brexiteer who is taking a hardline approach. This isn't going to be pretty for the Conservatives, and will definitely cause more problems both for their political position, and their party unity than it resolves, it certainly will put internal pressure on any new leader to try and gain a real majority as its not clear they'll have the entire support of the party behind them, they may even be worse-off than May was in this regard. (This all pending some new unifying candidate, who i can't actually see at the moment).
    The most fundamental problem facing the Tory Party is its identity crisis. Cameron's conservatism, being little more than a miserly branch of Blairism, never enthused anyone: its electoral "successes" can be explained almost entirely by the damage to Labour's image that was inflicted by the financial crisis. In my view, unless the party embraces its roots - which includes Euroscepticism by default - it will be continue to hemorrhage votes to Faragism. It needs a leader who can draw a line under the past ten years, and can accept that the Brexit fiasco is a symptom of the party's failures to represent conservative values through their policies or rhetoric.
    Last edited by Cope; May 26, 2019 at 11:07 AM.



  6. #6
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Indeed, Cameron thoroughly copied Tony Blair, which in the long run has alienated many small c conservatives, who are now turning to the Brexit Party.

    However, it’s hard to see how this can be remedied if candidates popular with the membership are unpopular with the parliamentary Tories.
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  7. #7

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Sajid Javid announces his intention to challenge for the leadership. Short video from the Guardian.




  8. #8
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Sajid would be my personal favourite. He’s eurosceptic, seems to have integrity (taking a 96% pay cut in order to become an MP), I don’t like Boris and know nothing about Raab.
    Patronised by Pontifex Maximus
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  9. #9

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Sajid would be my personal favourite. He’s eurosceptic, seems to have integrity (taking a 96% pay cut in order to become an MP), I don’t like Boris and know nothing about Raab.
    1. He might be Eurosceptic, but he voted to remain. Do we really want a PM who refused to support the leave campaign because he thought it would be too complicated for the United Kingdom to extricate itself from the European Union?

    2. Not that I disagree with your comment about his integrity, but most MP's aren't in it for the money.



  10. #10
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    The most fundamental problem facing the Tory Party is its identity crisis. Cameron's conservatism, being little more than a miserly branch of Blairism, never enthused anyone: its electoral "successes" can be explained almost entirely by the damage to Labour's image that was inflicted by the financial crisis. In my view, unless the party embraces its roots - which includes Euroscepticism by default - it will be continue to hemorrhage votes to Faragism. It needs a leader who can draw a line under the past ten years, and can accept that the Brexit fiasco is a symptom of the party's failures to represent conservative values through their policies or rhetoric.

    A fair analysis i think, i'd also add though the Conservatives are going through another problem, which is essentially is the divide between 'One Nation' conservatism (historically the dominant Conservative faction) with the legacy of Thatcher's neoliberalism. You see this bubbling as the surface- when for instance the idea of Rent controls, or Energy price caps were raised as 'communist', but now have been begrudgingly (by some Tories) adopted. Its an aspect to the current leadership contest that has been overshadowed by Brexit, but which actually has more long-term importance than if a candidate was remain or brexit, as two brexit candidates might have very different (and internally controversial) positions regarding society and the economy based on the rival One Nation, Thatcherites (and i forget the other 3 main strands ). Cameron by essentially becoming 'Blair the lesser' was able to smooth over these historic sources of contention, i'm not sure they can be so easily swept under the rug again.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    The most fundamental problem facing the Tory Party is its identity crisis. Cameron's conservatism, being little more than a miserly branch of Blairism, never enthused anyone: its electoral "successes" can be explained almost entirely by the damage to Labour's image that was inflicted by the financial crisis. In my view, unless the party embraces its roots - which includes Euroscepticism by default - it will be continue to hemorrhage votes to Faragism. It needs a leader who can draw a line under the past ten years, and can accept that the Brexit fiasco is a symptom of the party's failures to represent conservative values through their policies or rhetoric.

    A fair analysis i think, i'd also add though the Conservatives are going through another problem, which is essentially is the divide between 'One Nation' conservatism (historically the dominant Conservative faction) with the legacy of Thatcher's neoliberalism. You see this bubbling as the surface- when for instance the idea of Rent controls, or Energy price caps were raised as 'communist', but now have been begrudgingly (by some Tories) adopted. Its an aspect to the current leadership contest that has been overshadowed by Brexit, but which actually has more long-term importance than if a candidate was remain or brexit, as two brexit candidates might have very different (and internally controversial) positions regarding society and the economy based on the rival One Nation, Thatcherites (and i forget the other 3 main strands ). Cameron by essentially becoming 'Blair the lesser' was able to smooth over these historic sources of contention, i'm not sure they can be so easily swept under the rug again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Sajid would be my personal favourite. He’s eurosceptic, seems to have integrity (taking a 96% pay cut in order to become an MP), I don’t like Boris and know nothing about Raab.
    He'd be interesting, but i don't think he's a front-runner. I'll try and dig up the stuff, but apparently he is not well liked in the Conservative party, and is deemed something of a mess-up. Though in fairness there are very few candidates running who haven't been screw ups in their respective positions- Look at Hunt and Gove...
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  11. #11

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.




    This is the level of coverage of the topic by liberal media.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...rvative-leader

    Here are a list of the latest odds. As expected Johnson is out in front with Gove in second place and Leadsom in third.



  13. #13

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    This whole thing is pointless, they're trying to decide who the next captain is on the Titanic after it's already hit the iceberg. The Conservative party is done, they failed at the only job they were elected to do in 2017, though their own incompetence and mendacity. They are the party of the 9%. Worse still, that wretch May is still in post, still able to do all sorts of damage to try to ram her awful "deal" through at all costs.

    Until this year, I had voted Conservative at every single election for almost two decades. At the locals and Europeans this May, I didn't. This wasn't a "protest vote" as the delusional SW1 bubble-dwellers think, I've switched for good. None of the shower they have on show could persuade me to go back; anyone who voted Remain, or voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at any of the three junctures lacks the requisite conviction to take the UK out of the EU as far as I'm concerned. No one currently in the Cabinet deserves to be anywhere near the leadership.

    Johnson is a flip-flopper who talks a good game but lacks the balls to take on the Remainers in the party. Never mind that his entire family are Remainers, which makes his principles suspect. Gove is an unprincipled snake interested only in power, and was never a real Leaver. Leadsome flaked in 2017 at one hatchet job in the press and gave us May (plus she voted for the WA every time) and didn't resign after Chequers or even in December. Raab voted for the WA at MV3, and has already ruled out repealing the stupid law setting aid at 0.7% of GDP. Javid is a Remainer. Hancock is a buffoon and a Remainer. Harper who? Malthouse - Remainer. McVey - voted for the WA at MV3. Stewart - the BBC's favourite fantasist, Remainer who advocates in favour of the WA. Cleverley - Remainer who has voted for the WA repeatedly. Baker - the only real Leaver in the entire race, but won't get anywhere near the membership. Gyimah - Remainer with delusions of adequacy, must be hoping to drive that 9% down lower still. Brady - faux-Leaver who has presided over May's premiership and left her in post long past her sell-by date.

    So a pox on all their houses, I'll be voting for the Brexit Party at the next general election. Especially because my faux-Brexiteer MP is a knob.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    It seems that Michael Gove is the current favorite for leader. Interesting because his stance is to delay no deal until the UK is properly prepared for it ( he also acknowledges that no-deal Brexit could fail if imposed before 31 October, leading to a general election and oblivion). In my view however, he'll lose the final round if he gets that far.

    Most other candidates are BmB. I can't see that approach working. No-one is more Brexit than Farage and his followers. The Tories will be as relevant as UKIP if they put all their eggs in the no-deal basket.

    One can't say better than this:
    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    , I'll be voting for the Brexit Party at the next general election. Especially because my faux-Brexiteer MP is a knob.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...er-theresa-may

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rexit-kool-aid


    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    An assortment of short videos from the Mail featuring some of the candidates:

    Damn I thought it was that other Hancock. That would be interesting..............

    Matt Hancock
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Last edited by mongrel; June 03, 2019 at 01:15 AM.
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  15. #15

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    It seems that Michael Gove is the current favorite for leader. Interesting because his stance is to delay no deal until the UK is properly prepared for it ( he also acknowledges that no-deal Brexit could fail if imposed before 31 October, leading to a general election and oblivion). In my view however, he'll lose the final round if he gets that far.

    Most other candidates are BmB. I can't see that approach working. No-one is more Brexit than Farage and his followers. The Tories will be as relevant as UKIP if they put all their eggs in the no-deal basket.

    One can't say better than this:


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...er-theresa-may

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rexit-kool-aid
    You're not a Conservative voter, and probably don't know any, so I'll forgive you not having the first clue about why people would have voted Conservative in the first place. The only reason the Brexit Party exists is because of the utter failure of the Conservatives to get the UK out of the EU. Not to vote for May's turd of a deal (which isn't leaving), but to actually leave.

    If Gove or any other Remainer gets the job, they are finished. Not just because their voters will desert them, but their local activists too. Difficult to win elections without a ground force, and the Conservative grassroots is in revolt, many defecting to the Brexit Party. I'll take actual voting in real elections over polling nonsense, that's just froth for the papers. In the real election, one that didn't even matter, a third of the people voting opted for a new party, and the overwhelming majority of those voters were former Conservatives. Those in favour of May's turd, like Gove, managed a whole 9%.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    You're not a Conservative voter, and probably don't know any, so I'll forgive you not having the first clue about why people would have voted Conservative in the first place. The only reason the Brexit Party exists is because of the utter failure of the Conservatives to get the UK out of the EU. Not to vote for May's turd of a deal (which isn't leaving), but to actually leave.

    If Gove or any other Remainer gets the job, they are finished. Not just because their voters will desert them, but their local activists too. Difficult to win elections without a ground force, and the Conservative grassroots is in revolt, many defecting to the Brexit Party. I'll take actual voting in real elections over polling nonsense, that's just froth for the papers. In the real election, one that didn't even matter, a third of the people voting opted for a new party, and the overwhelming majority of those voters were former Conservatives. Those in favour of May's turd, like Gove, managed a whole 9%.
    If one takes the view - as I do - that the Tory party's institutionalized alignment with corporatist economics and socialite progressivism prevents it from properly representing conservative values, then perhaps its final demise is to be encouraged. The problem is the lack of a viable long term alternative: the Brexit Party is a single-issue movement which lacks the philosophical foundations and maturity to govern.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    If one takes the view - as I do - that the Tory party's institutionalized alignment with corporatist economics and socialite progressivism prevents it from properly representing conservative values, then perhaps its final demise is to be encouraged. The problem is the lack of a viable long term alternative: the Brexit Party is a single-issue movement which lacks the philosophical foundations and maturity to govern.
    The party of Cameron, the inheritors of Blair, cannot survive. It is disconnected form activists and voters alike. The Remain majority in the Commons doesn't get it; if they put one of their own in Number 10, they will merely hasten this demise.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    You're not a Conservative voter, and probably don't know any, so I'll forgive you not having the first clue about why people would have voted Conservative in the first place. The only reason the Brexit Party exists is because of the utter failure of the Conservatives to get the UK out of the EU. Not to vote for May's turd of a deal (which isn't leaving), but to actually leave.

    If Gove or any other Remainer gets the job, they are finished. Not just because their voters will desert them, but their local activists too. Difficult to win elections without a ground force, and the Conservative grassroots is in revolt, many defecting to the Brexit Party. I'll take actual voting in real elections over polling nonsense, that's just froth for the papers. In the real election, one that didn't even matter, a third of the people voting opted for a new party, and the overwhelming majority of those voters were former Conservatives. Those in favour of May's turd, like Gove, managed a whole 9%.
    How do you know how I vote? Not that it is a matter for debate. And feck the old scrotes who call themselves the Tory grassroots, I deal with actual Parliamentarians. Its axiomatic that tacking to the wrong direction has parties losing voters in both directions. Only a true racist can satisfy racists but at the expense of civilised voters. Only a true Brexiteer and in my view there is only one that is credible, Farage can be 'convincing' on this issue, Anyone aping him will not only fall short, restrained by Parliamentary procedure, they will lose much of the remain element of their party. It happened to Labour when they tacked rightwards in panic over the BNP in the early 2000s to the benefit of the Liberals (where are the BNP now?)It's clearly happened with the Tories. Brexit would not have been an issue if Camoron had not panicked over one Euro election result.

    If Gove got the job the Tories would be finished because he's a hate figure, almost designed to take a milkshake. But he is also relatively competent and if he can find a way to buy time to get an effective solution to the that is Brexit, I am satified he will make the effort. That is the best hope to save the rest of the party. The more unthinking Brexiteers are lost to the party and will die off in a few years in any event. Someone needs to tell the electorate the truth, Brexit isn't happening until the Parliamentary arithmatic changes.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    If one takes the view - as I do - that the Tory party's institutionalized alignment with corporatist economics and socialite progressivism prevents it from properly representing conservative values, then perhaps its final demise is to be encouraged. The problem is the lack of a viable long term alternative: the Brexit Party is a single-issue movement which lacks the philosophical foundations and maturity to govern.
    I think the term 'values' is a misnomer given the material damage austerity and Brexit have caused.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; June 04, 2019 at 05:06 AM. Reason: Censor bypass.
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  19. #19

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    The party of Cameron, the inheritors of Blair, cannot survive. It is disconnected form activists and voters alike. The Remain majority in the Commons doesn't get it; if they put one of their own in Number 10, they will merely hasten this demise.
    As I say, the problem is the lack of an alternative. There isn't a coherent, intellectual conservative movement which is in a position to absorb the Tory Party.



  20. #20

    Default Re: Conservative leadership election.

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    I think the term 'values' is a misnomer given the material damage austerity and Brexit have caused.
    Tory Party policies are not a reflection of conservative values. The point of my post was to highlight that.



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