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Thread: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

  1. #81
    Gigantus's Avatar The trouble with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and trying to put things in it
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Bit of a thread revival, but then it's kinda self prophetic.




  2. #82
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Trump’s campaign pledges to not be hawkish have basically been betrayed at this point. Either he never meant it or the hawks in DC have gotten to him (John Bolton etc)
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    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There is nothing to suggest dramatically that his heart is giving out. His heart attack is a testament to how well he can recover from something like that.

  3. #83

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Trumpís campaign pledges to not be hawkish have basically been betrayed at this point. Either he never meant it or the hawks in DC have gotten to him (John Bolton etc)
    I'd guess it's mostly the latter. IMO the thing with Trump is that he's driven by ego and emotions, not rational, strategic thinking about how to benefit the US the most.

    Hence concerning the Iran deal specifically, he's always just been taking the opposite view of Obama. His ego simply always wanted to "beat" Obama. So if Obama had taken a tough line on Iran 5 years ago instead, Trump would try to soften it. But when it comes to him previously championing general non-inteference in other countries, I'm convinced he actually believed in it -- the narcissist was probs thinking he'll be like Jesus and bring peace to everyone. But the issue is of course that he's clearly extremely easy to manipulate, and hence after two years of the likes of Bolton whispering shite into his ear, he has completely forgotten everything he's said.
    Last edited by Nikitn; June 17, 2019 at 06:43 AM.

  4. #84

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    The pressure being put on Iran is typical of Trump's negotiating style. It's the same he did with North Korea, the same he did with Mexico, the same he's doing with the Palestinian Authority. Use "maximum pressure" and "be prepared to walk away" are two of his mantras.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  5. #85

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    The pressure being put on Iran is typical of Trump's negotiating style. It's the same he did with North Korea, the same he did with Mexico, the same he's doing with the Palestinian Authority. Use "maximum pressure" and "be prepared to walk away" are two of his mantras.
    There weren't multiple elements in his administration trying to start a war with NK. And in general, it's only gotten crazier since then. US aggression against Iran is a very real danger.

  6. #86

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Nikitn View Post
    There weren't multiple elements in his administration trying to start a war with NK. And in general, it's only gotten crazier since then. US aggression against Iran is a very real danger.
    I doubt there will be war, unless the Iranians force Trump's hand. I don't think they're crazy or foolish enough to do so in any serious way. They know he doesn't actually want war, or at least they said as much publicly. Even if they go too far, and call his bluff, I expect something like the strikes in Syria as a response.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  7. #87
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    The pressure being put on Iran is typical of Trump's negotiating style. It's the same he did with North Korea, the same he did with Mexico, the same he's doing with the Palestinian Authority. Use "maximum pressure" and "be prepared to walk away" are two of his mantras.
    Being a poor negotiator should be his third mantra. He got more less nothing out Mexico for a bully play that damages a key economic relationship. He certainly not one thing out of Kim, he alienates our closest friends the man is idiot.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  8. #88
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    It is already very far fetched to call him a negotiator and his behaviour "negotiation style"....

  9. #89

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I doubt there will be war, unless the Iranians force Trump's hand. I don't think they're crazy or foolish enough to do so in any serious way. They know he doesn't actually want war, or at least they said as much publicly. Even if they go too far, and call his bluff, I expect something like the strikes in Syria as a response.
    Fair enough, there are hardliners on both sides -- including Iran of course. Still, while maybe Trump in principle didn't want any wars when he was elected, it's very unclear how lucid he is right now (you seem to be presenting him as some kind of rational "negotiator") vs how much influence psycopaths like Bolton have over him. And I don't think these people would be content with just a missile strike...
    Last edited by Nikitn; June 17, 2019 at 11:06 AM.

  10. #90
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I doubt there will be war, unless the Iranians force Trump's hand. I don't think they're crazy or foolish enough to do so in any serious way. They know he doesn't actually want war, or at least they said as much publicly. Even if they go too far, and call his bluff, I expect something like the strikes in Syria as a response.
    I don't think the mullahs are using the same playbook, there's a chance some of them actually believe in paradise.

    The tanker attacks are Gulf of Tonkin level bulldust and IMHO damage US alliances by testing credibility.

    Maximum pressure here is not on an x-y xis, there's the internal game in Iran, the Saudi rivalry, bonus points for killing Jewish Israelis, increasingly incredulous allies etc. I don't think the threat of another Iraq is plausible. His only chip is actually attacking, and that will cost him at home.

    My own guess this is not even Trump's show. I think the Koch boys have bought the subcontract on State and put Pompeo in there to exert pressure on oil prices at the right time for their portfolios. Trump makes a noise when he gets a text from his masters telling him too as per his election agreement (he throws out the odd rude text to prove he's not a slave though so its all good). Pompeo's been working on oil rich nations not run by Big Oil, and making sure the Saudis get to collect their debt for crashing the world oil market (one Yemeni genocide, I think the Saudis got the better of that deal).
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  11. #91
    Cookiegod's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    There's no proof that Iran did those attacks. And countries such as, and especially the US have a habit of false flags. Not only do they lack so much credibility that no one is really believing them, but they are also prime suspects in any such case.

    Yet, in this case I do not believe them to have been in the US' interest - it's rather obvious the US isn't prepared for war with Iran and the rather minor US military build-up there is mostly for posturing towards home. And even the usually hawkish mass media do not have the stomach for such a war, as can be seen from their reporting on this. I wish they'd been this critical in 2001, 2003, etc. etc.

    However, even though I do not view Iran as a particularly aggressive country and do see them as being in the right in this conflict overall, and even though they have avoided almost any escalation so far, it is conceivable they'd do these actions. Mostly because Iran can put the US in a tight spot. Oil prices rise immediately, and shipping to and from the Persian gulf becomes more expensive due to increased insurance costs.
    But neither can they be blamed with any amount of certainty, because this escalation is also in the interest of those hardliners (both state actors, and non-state actors) in the west pushing for war. And for a great many of them it's conceivable they'd have these abilities, or have been able to develop them.
    Last edited by Cookiegod; June 19, 2019 at 02:30 AM.
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    No one cares what Derc has to say.

  12. #92
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    I really doubt a US false flag. Its not really Trump's thing and while I believe Bolton does what a strike he not really in a position to orchestrate such a thing. I would think the best candidates are Israel the House of Saud and Hardliners in Iran operating off book to provoke a US response. The last is interesting to consider given Iran has seen the kind of tepid and week responses Trump took in Syria. It might worth it to to provoke a similar few dozen cruise missiles to help marginalize moderates at home for ever trusting the US (and by extension the west).

    If there was a defense secretary that was ideologically aligned with Bolton I could see the US ramping some kind of tit for tat provocations that might lead to conflict. But realistically Trump's attentions span is low and he really only seems to focus on his ethnic cleansing here in the states for any long span of time and his rally crack. The work of running a war would probably appall him.
    Last edited by conon394; June 19, 2019 at 01:07 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  13. #93

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    But realistically Trump's attentions span is low and he really only seems to focus on his ethnic cleansing here in the states for any long span of time and his rally crack. The work of running a war would probably appall him.
    What ethnic cleansing?

  14. #94

    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Apparently Iranians shot down a US spy drone that was illegally trespassing Iran's air-space. Neocons are foaming form their mouths and "progressive" liberals are throwing a tantrum and demanding war. Hopefully, Trump will disregard both groups of lunatics.
    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    What ethnic cleansing?
    He is probably referring to extradition of illegal aliens.

  15. #95
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Where are you getting that it was in Iranian airspace?

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/20/middl...ntl/index.html

    A US official confirmed to CNN a drone had been shot down, but said the incident occurred in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most vital shipping routes.

    US Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, said in a statement Thursday that the drone that was shot down by Iran was a RQ-4A Global Hawk High-Altitude, Long, Endurance (HALE) Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS).

    Reuters quoted Cap. Bill Urban, a spokesman for the US Central Command, as saying "no US aircraft were operating in Iranian airspace" Thursday.
    The ships Iran keeps attacking aren't in Iranian territory, either. The warmongering very much seems to be on the Iranian side.

    War Would Serve Iranís Interests, and the White House Knows It

    The White House recently imposed sanctions on Iranís steel, aluminum, copper, and iron industries. These sanctions, which followed Iranís decision to follow Americaís lead and partially withdraw from the 2015 nuclear accords, are aimed at Iranís blue-collar workersóthe backbone of the Iranian regimeís popular support. In concert with sanctions on the regimeís nuclear-related industries, its energy, shipping, and financial sectors, and labeling the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist entity, resulting in financial proscriptions on one of Iranís largest public employers, the pressure on the Iranian economy and its currency is intense. If the White House is to be believed, outright hostilities between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic would derail these efforts. Indeed, war would only serve Tehranís interests.

    According to the intelligence that prompted this latest buildup of U.S. forces in the region, the only party that wants a conflict is the Iranian regime. Tehranís objective ďis to prod the United States into a miscalculation or overreaction,Ē the Times reported. American officials are reportedly aware that Iranís objective is to force the U.S. to execute a limited strike on Iranian targets while avoiding an all-out ground campaign the regime would not survive, thereby whipping up anti-American sentiment and increases internal political cohesion now strained by economic hardship.

  16. #96
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Where are you getting that it was in Iranian airspace?
    Maybe was not but probably was come on the US has been flying over other people airspace for decades its kinda our thing. Besides are not mare a couple disputed specks of land in Persian gulf sufficient for both sides to make their claims with an honest face. Although It does raise an issue I have with the US dependency on drones, we really don't build enough since they rather easy to shoot and don't survive long in contested environments.
    Last edited by conon394; June 20, 2019 at 10:41 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  17. #97
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Both sides have conflicting stories. Fortunately it was a drone shot down and not a manned aircraft.

  18. #98
    Carmen Sylva's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    I personally suspect this saudi arabian Hannibal Lecter like crownprince and his Secret Service.

    It would fit into his plans to become hegemon on the arabian peninsula ( Jemen war, Blockade of opposing Qatar...).

    A war between US and Iran would strengten SA influence there.

  19. #99
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    I personally suspect this saudi arabian Hannibal Lecter like crownprince and his Secret Service.

    It would fit into his plans to become hegemon on the arabian peninsula ( Jemen war, Blockade of opposing Qatar...).

    A war between US and Iran would strengten SA influence there.
    I not sure but I would not rule out the possibility. Although if where the case you would Iran would working hard to find evidence to that effect. But although Bolton has dying to try regime change in Iran I doubt Trump is up for it. He will talk aggressive, but I suspect he will find a way to get distracted and just declare well we showed them and ignore Iran. Really Iran could escalate the whole thing if somebody just sent Trump a great great pretty love letter.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  20. #100
    Carmen Sylva's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Iran stopping part of the implementation of the nuclear deal

    Atm it seems, he is busy with the millions of "illegals" , wich he want to deport from US. Tomorrow it is something else. Perhaps the new Harley Davidson Fabric in China.

    Hopefully he got distracted like a cat hunting a mouse, then suddenly distracted by a rolling ball of wool...

    The only thing i hope, is that the department of defence got a new head. I'm worried that Bolton could mix up things there.

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