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Thread: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

  1. #81

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    A bankrupt failed state, led by cowardly corruptocrats will risk an international incident
    Interestingly enough, this applies for both Greece and Turkey.
    Last edited by ioannis76; May 09, 2019 at 08:47 AM.

  2. #82
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by ioannis76 View Post
    Interestingly enough, this applies for both Greece and Turkey.
    Not exactly. You need to keep in mind that Turkey’s corruptocrat in charge happens to be of the bellicose autocrat variety. And he happens to be quite aware that failed state or not Turkey is still 8 times the size of Greece.

  3. #83
    AnthoniusII's Avatar XXI ARMORED BRIGADE
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Not exactly. You need to keep in mind that Turkeyís corruptocrat in charge happens to be of the bellicose autocrat variety. And he happens to be quite aware that failed state or not Turkey is still 8 times the size of Greece.
    Alastor posting in TW games site -atleast- you should know that numbers do not always define the outcome of a conflict.
    If all Greeks had the same opinion like you they would be propably still SLAVES.
    But if we talk about numbers you forget the following ones.
    Turkey has 78 million population with 50"% of them under the age of 30 that give it a HUGE advandage when Greece has 11 million population with 50% on an average age over than 50 years old.
    That is a clear advandage of Turkey indeed.
    But Turkey's 78 million population includes 23 million Kurds. Not to mention 1 million Assyrians and other smaller minorities.
    Turkey's delima wont be if a conflict will lead to a victory over Greece but if that victory will come so fast -that is douptable- to avoid a full scale revolution and not simply uprissing of the Kurds that now use Israely and US weapons! If Turkey would be so strong as it tries so hard to show you must have no doupt that she would inbade Greece long ago. I do not know if you served you military tour of duty but being a soldier my self to the notorius XXI Armored Brigade under the commands of Thallasas (search your internet to see who was he) you must be sure that if Greece will lose a war by Turkey it will be because of the existance of pesimistic Greeks like you that will accept any defeat inorder not to lose their siesta.
    EDIT: Greeks never had numbers on their sides by they never denied a Fight:
    Last edited by AnthoniusII; May 09, 2019 at 10:38 AM.
    There are moments (in history), in which a nation owes,
    if it wants to be considered as a great one, to be able to fight.
    Even without hope of winning. Just because it has to.
    Greek War motto.
    XXI Armored Brigade. Proud that served in that unit in 1996!
    "Spartans do not ask how many (enemies are) but where they are"!
    XXI Armored Brigade's motto.
    The Greek Secret (or why they will fight again if it will be necessary or why they do not sell their history).


  4. #84

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by AnthoniusII View Post
    That is the issue here. You missed my previus post. Since Cyprus and Turkey are not officialy at war, Coast Guard Ship is the propriate vessel to try arrest the crew (naval pollice) ...but ofcourse the Turkish Frigade may shoot at it...You forget that an S Class Frigade of Hellenic Navy is always near by too...In case of Turkish fire the Greek Frigade will respond by returning the fire because of the Greek-Cyprus Defence treaty. Also all greek submarines have already left their bases and no one knows where they are. Turkey needs 2 more years to enter in service its own version of Type 214T submarines. Untill then the Greek 214s with their 2 week under water surface capabillity can be anywhere attacking any Turkish ship that will try to exit it naval bases. Also the greek islands are too close to Turkish coasts allowing BOTH sides to use convantional artilery. The problem for Turkey is that all its naval bases are blocked by Land Exocet Block II launchers exept the convantional artilery. In every case we wil talk for a full scale war... Tha is why The US carrier that was suposed to stay in Croatia for a week stayed one day and not goes to Suda bay Base (too close to the possible incedent position). Cogress AGAIN with Congerssman Menendez was too clear "back off from Cyprus' EEZ".
    Iím not really in any position to get involved in the debate you guys are having about whether or not the Hellenic navy would get involved, but I donít think it matters. A Cypriot Sa'ar 62 could potentially survive a belligerent encounter with a Turkish G-class frigate at a distance due to its speed and countermeasures, but if it were to come in close in order to board the ship the frigate is escorting, it could easily be obliterated before help arrived (if help was indeed even on its way). More likely a few warning shots from the Turkish frigate would scare them off and amount to nothing, but itís not a course of action I expect the Cypriots to take. I donít see any outcome which would be in their favor.

    There are countries that have the power to do something about it that support the Cypriot claim, but not even remotely enough to go to war with Turkey. That said, Cyprus is free to exploit their EEZ themselves in collaboration with companies affiliated with major powers, such as ExxonMobil, and there isnít much, if anything, the Turks can really do about that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  5. #85
    AnthoniusII's Avatar XXI ARMORED BRIGADE
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I’m not really in any position to get involved in the debate you guys are having about whether or not the Hellenic navy would get involved, but I don’t think it matters. A Cypriot Sa'ar 62 could potentially survive a belligerent encounter with a Turkish G-class frigate at a distance due to its speed and countermeasures, but if it were to come in close in order to board the ship the frigate is escorting, it could easily be obliterated before help arrived (if help was indeed even on its way). More likely a few warning shots from the Turkish frigate would scare them off and amount to nothing, but it’s not a course of action I expect the Cypriots to take. I don’t see any outcome which would be in their favor.

    There are countries that have the power to do something about it that support the Cypriot claim, but not even remotely enough to go to war with Turkey. That said, Cyprus is free to exploit their EEZ themselves in collaboration with companies affiliated with major powers, such as ExxonMobil, and there isn’t much, if anything, the Turks can really do about that.
    You miss the point...The warning shots will open hell's doors! Because the Greek Frigade wont be able or wait to see the outcome of the Turkish shots results. Only yesterday Turkey made the most massive solid air intrution to greek airspace with 24 armed planes ALL TOGETHER in fight formetion...They tested the readiness of HAF , the respond was the scruble of 30 planes and we had 4 dog fights. Many experts worry that since Erdogan put the most expirient pilots in jail (over 800) the new ones have not the expirience nore the needed nerves to avoid a complicated situation that could easily lead to real fights from fear of survival...Greek pilots considered the best dog fighters in NATO but they are also humans with their nerves streched to the edge.
    Turkey has no long range AA system...It depends in the long AA SYSTEMS of its brigades. But M-2000.SCULP compination wont aim Frigades. A friend of mine told me that all EXOCET missiles and Sculp ones are loaded on planes waiting orders for counter attack...If the Turkish Captain of the Turkish Frigade will fire in the air for warning that will be the fuse for a HUGE bomb called Creco-turkish war... Despite the crisis Greece has a large army and that will make casualties of both sides enourmus. Turkey coasts are too close to Greek islands that have the old 8inch Guns...They do not need better range beacuse all Turkey main coastal cities are in that range! ON the other side 20 years now Turkey has its 4th Army with 100000 men 4000 land boats to land tank carrier ships and ofcourse a huge number of artilery too. The desision of that Turkish Captain main cause thousands of deaths in few minutes no matter if he shoot in the air or not. Armed forces has rules of engagement that do not distinquish warning shots from those direct to the target but the "existance" of those shots in any case... Since 1996 (that i was soldier) there is not a second closer to war and it will be a burden on the shoulders of a Turkish Captain's desision! That is what makes me worry so much...Erdogan needs something to rally even his opponets iun Turkey under his banner...Greece and Cyprus are the perfect targets. Remember what the Argentina Dictatorship did in 1982 when it felt a huge inner preasure! It rallied the Argentinian population ussing Focland islands war as excuse. That is what I am afraid from the despert Erdogan! He lost the two major city ellections and FORCED the Courts to repeat the ellections because he feel threatened. His economy crumble and he has too many open fronts. He needs something to unite Turkey's public opinion and population and who is the most comfortable enemy than "the evil Greeks"?
    There are moments (in history), in which a nation owes,
    if it wants to be considered as a great one, to be able to fight.
    Even without hope of winning. Just because it has to.
    Greek War motto.
    XXI Armored Brigade. Proud that served in that unit in 1996!
    "Spartans do not ask how many (enemies are) but where they are"!
    XXI Armored Brigade's motto.
    The Greek Secret (or why they will fight again if it will be necessary or why they do not sell their history).


  6. #86
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by AnthoniusII View Post
    Alastor posting in TW games site -atleast- you should know that numbers do not always define the outcome of a conflict.
    You just don't want to understand. It won't get there. Numbers may not end up deciding an actual conflict but for sure greatly influence one's willingness to risk one. Turkey is more willing to take risks, because numbers say it can afford to. Greece, or much more so Cyprus, not so much. Which is why all this is highly academic and has little bearing to reality.

    Also yet again you are making this personal and assume you know who I am. Don't make it personal, don't assume.

  7. #87

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Turkey is more willing to take risks
    No, Turkey is anything BUT willing to take risks. You don't seem to realise (and many analysts have said time and time again) Turkey cannot afford to lose a war. That country is a mosaic of various cultures, nationalities, etc (the best example is the Kurds), that are held together only by means of the terror of the turkish state. If this state loses a war, then these nationalities will start demanding independence (the Kurds are already doing so). Who will be next? The Alevites?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/22/w...p-erdogan.html

    Wary of Sunni dominance of public life, Alevis are key stakeholders in the secular Turkish state, and yet have suffered under staunchly secular governments, too. They exemplify the parts of Turkey that feel most threatened by Mr. Erdogan — secularists and minorities like the Kurds and Alevis — while highlighting both the authoritarianism and religious nationalism that predated him, as well as the disparate nature of the coalition that opposes him.
    Things are not as simple as some may think, or may want us to think, when it comes to Turkey.

    Turkey will only fight if the outcome is CERTAIN. What we see here is Turkey bullying Greece and Cyprus, because she knows that we are going to back down. If we were to call their bluff and shoot down an aircraft (as we did back in 1996), they would RUN. They would never risk an all out war with Greece. They won't even risk an all out war with Syria.
    Last edited by ioannis76; May 09, 2019 at 01:29 PM.

  8. #88
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by ioannis76 View Post
    No, Turkey is anything BUT willing to take risks.
    Someone needs to inform Erdogan then. Because he seems to have not gotten the memo. Hell Turkey even shot down a Russian fighter plane a couple of years ago. And you are telling me Turkey doesn't take risks? Not to mention you keep talking about war. From an escalation to a war there is quite the distance.

  9. #89
    AnthoniusII's Avatar XXI ARMORED BRIGADE
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Someone needs to inform Erdogan then. Because he seems to have not gotten the memo. Hell Turkey even shot down a Russian fighter plane a couple of years ago. And you are telling me Turkey doesn't take risks? Not to mention you keep talking about war. From an escalation to a war there is quite the distance.
    Universal rule in politics: When you face internal problems make them external ones (Argentina).
    Erdogan HAS NO CHOICE than to RISK...Otherwhise Turkey will be trabsformed in a huge Venezuela if we count the Kurdish problem , the economy that gets worst every day, that his political opponets won crusial cities in the last ellections and closed the gap in the votting population and most of all Turkey will be left with no ENERGY. 90% of energy in Turkey of 78 million people is imported. So Turkey needs energy despertly and Erdogan seams to have the will to risk the indegrity of his country to have that energy. Do not be surpriced if a turkish "Guaido" will apear and USA and EU suports him telling the Erdogan punishes his own people. That is how politics work. So Erdogan like an old politician knows well that time is against him. If he wont move fast and with force inorder to "convince" the great powers to allow him have access to energy he may become the next Sadam Husein (from the most loyal ally to the "tyrant" of his people). Erdogan needs fast moves because you can always start a war but no one ensures you when it will stop. Israel wants a Kurdistan but its not alone to that plan. Turkey has cut the water supply to "messopotamia" and Levante by building river dams blackmailing all those that need that water (you can not dring oil). That was the first hostile move on his behalf that forced Jordan, Israel, Iraq, Syria to talk about an autonomus Kurdistan giving away some lands but ensuring plenty of water they despertly need. Erdogan blackmailed too many countries and now he knows that the time is up. So he needs to move fast. History repeats its self , only the names change. Info that came from Turkey is that Erdogan's last card in that poker game would be the unification of the northern Cyprus with Turkey and so the north Cypriot EEZ will become automaticaly Turkish. But that would make Russia that now suports him his most hated enemy..Because Erdogan is not trasworthy (you mentioned the shoting down the russian plane) and Russia wont put in risk its naval bases in Syria if Erdogan "change friends" once again! Erdogan believes that a short war with Cyprus and Greece will force USA and EU to give him what he wants inorder to stop his aggresion to EU MEMBERS and make EU look humiliated. The problem is that the victims will be Cyprus and Greece. But Erdogan may make a fatal mistake...A short war may not have the results he wants...If he fails to conquer a large Greek Island or Greece counter attacks and take a tiny Turkish village instead then he will face a huge uprissing and may have Mousolini's end....Remember that Italians loved Mousolini when he promised them a new Roman Empire but when he failed Italians hanged him and danced on his dead body...Those are the risks Erdogan must make FAST...he knows that he has not the luxury of failing.
    There are moments (in history), in which a nation owes,
    if it wants to be considered as a great one, to be able to fight.
    Even without hope of winning. Just because it has to.
    Greek War motto.
    XXI Armored Brigade. Proud that served in that unit in 1996!
    "Spartans do not ask how many (enemies are) but where they are"!
    XXI Armored Brigade's motto.
    The Greek Secret (or why they will fight again if it will be necessary or why they do not sell their history).


  10. #90
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by AnthoniusII View Post
    Erdogan HAS NO CHOICE than to RISK...
    Good, then we agree. Turkey is willing to risk a confrontation. Greece/Curpus is not.

  11. #91
    AnthoniusII's Avatar XXI ARMORED BRIGADE
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Good, then we agree. Turkey is willing to risk a confrontation. Greece/Curpus is not.
    You REFUSE to see the reality....Turkey will TAKE THE RISK but on the other side Greece and Cyprus WILL HAVE NO CHOICE THAN TO FIGHT...
    That is what I am trying to tell you these days...No one said that Cyprus or Greece will be foolish enough to start a war! But from the momment Erdogan will take that risk Greece and Cyprus will have to fight for their survival.
    Unless you think that they will stand still and will agree to lose -Greeks some of their islands to save Athens- and Cyprus to completly become under Turkish yoke. For Cypriots the situation is more complicated THEY HAVE NO WHERE ELSE TO GO so they will fight to the end! Understand now what I am trying to tell you so many days? Prepaired or not both they will be forced to fight.
    There are moments (in history), in which a nation owes,
    if it wants to be considered as a great one, to be able to fight.
    Even without hope of winning. Just because it has to.
    Greek War motto.
    XXI Armored Brigade. Proud that served in that unit in 1996!
    "Spartans do not ask how many (enemies are) but where they are"!
    XXI Armored Brigade's motto.
    The Greek Secret (or why they will fight again if it will be necessary or why they do not sell their history).


  12. #92
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by AnthoniusII View Post
    You REFUSE to see the reality....Turkey will TAKE THE RISK but on the other side Greece and Cyprus WILL HAVE NO CHOICE THAN TO FIGHT...
    That is what I am trying to tell you these days...No one said that Cyprus or Greece will be foolish enough to start a war! But from the momment Erdogan will take that risk Greece and Cyprus will have to fight for their survival.
    Unless you think that they will stand still and will agree to lose -Greeks some of their islands to save Athens- and Cyprus to completly become under Turkish yoke. For Cypriots the situation is more complicated THEY HAVE NO WHERE ELSE TO GO so they will fight to the end! Understand now what I am trying to tell you so many days? Prepaired or not both they will be forced to fight.
    Only that is evidently wrong. You seem quite confused over what risk means to begin with. Because Turkey already took the risk and you seem to have missed it. Another risk for that matter. Turkey started drilling inside the EEZ claimed by Cyprus. That is a risk. Did Greece and/or Cyprus start fighting? No. Therefore they do have other options. And yes indeed it is my belief that especially Greece will choose to effectively do nothing about it. Its leadership is too cowardly to risk an escalation and too inept to use proper diplomatic means to apply effective pressure. Because it could, that is the sad reality here. Greece has the means to apply a lot more pressure than the zero pressure it currently applies, but neither the will nor competence to use those means. So what option is left? Complain a little here and there and effectively do nothing. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong. Though recent history informs otherwise. But until I am, there isn't much to discuss.
    Last edited by Alastor; May 10, 2019 at 04:05 AM.

  13. #93
    AnthoniusII's Avatar XXI ARMORED BRIGADE
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    It seams the tention with IRAN and the huge US force gathered in the gulf , made Turkey to make some under the table negasiations.
    A german newspaper claims that a Russian Diplomat revealed that Turkey will "use" her bad economy as excuse to cancel S-400...That made Russians furius...It seams that Turkey tries hard to re-aproach USA since IRAN is the next target of US forces and as close partner of IRAN does not wish to become the next target! Fatih is stable in its position but does not make any actions, trying to put its future actions, as a reward from USA inorder to brake down Turkey's relations with IRAN!
    That is what happens when a leader thinks that he can manipulate both Big Global Forces....
    There are moments (in history), in which a nation owes,
    if it wants to be considered as a great one, to be able to fight.
    Even without hope of winning. Just because it has to.
    Greek War motto.
    XXI Armored Brigade. Proud that served in that unit in 1996!
    "Spartans do not ask how many (enemies are) but where they are"!
    XXI Armored Brigade's motto.
    The Greek Secret (or why they will fight again if it will be necessary or why they do not sell their history).


  14. #94

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Purchase of S-400 cannot be cancelled, that would be a stupid move. They should be purchased but should not be entegrated into Turkish NATO oriented systems, "temporarily" they should be put on Azerbaijani soil. Afterwards we should watch for the US moves, if the political climate becomes warmer and their war on our economy ends, S-400's wait on Azerbaijan can be extended for an indefinite time(but of course meanwhile Turkish engineers would examine it and scrap any info they can get).

  15. #95
    AnthoniusII's Avatar XXI ARMORED BRIGADE
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tureuki View Post
    Purchase of S-400 cannot be cancelled, that would be a stupid move. They should be purchased but should not be entegrated into Turkish NATO oriented systems, "temporarily" they should be put on Azerbaijani soil. Afterwards we should watch for the US moves, if the political climate becomes warmer and their war on our economy ends, S-400's wait on Azerbaijan can be extended for an indefinite time(but of course meanwhile Turkish engineers would examine it and scrap any info they can get).
    My friend its not my claim or words:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tu...sia-2019-05-10
    If the S-400 will be delivered in June their crews would be already in Russia learning the system. Such a complicated system requires long training in full build same systems. When Cyprus bought those S-300 their crews arrived in Russia a year earlier.
    EDIT: If Erdogan retreats from his hostile attidute against USA because of IRAN crisis Russia wont be stupid to deleiver S-400 to its enemies (NATO). That is the problem with Erdogan , no one trusts him any more. One day he accuses USA , the next day shot down a russian plane, the other day makes Russia his best ally, the turns to EU for help , then accuses EU that conspires against him and so on...You see the delima both Russia and USA now have? Even tommorow Erdogan cancels for ever S-400 is not certain that Turkish ready made F-35s will be automaticaly delivered. Erdogan has been accused the sold Venezuela's gold deposits to IRAN allowing IRAN to use that gold for his army developing!!
    Last edited by AnthoniusII; May 10, 2019 at 02:10 PM.
    There are moments (in history), in which a nation owes,
    if it wants to be considered as a great one, to be able to fight.
    Even without hope of winning. Just because it has to.
    Greek War motto.
    XXI Armored Brigade. Proud that served in that unit in 1996!
    "Spartans do not ask how many (enemies are) but where they are"!
    XXI Armored Brigade's motto.
    The Greek Secret (or why they will fight again if it will be necessary or why they do not sell their history).


  16. #96

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tureuki View Post
    Purchase of S-400 cannot be cancelled, that would be a stupid move. They should be purchased but should not be entegrated into Turkish NATO oriented systems, "temporarily" they should be put on Azerbaijani soil.
    USA aside i donīt think that NATO will allow such a Trojan inside their Integrity - Itīs not about the F35 or the S-400 <--- These are just funny excuses to blame each other nothing else.

  17. #97

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    It has been denied already, fake news.

    Learning how it works is one thing, entegrating it into NATO systems is another. USA complains about the latter. Best solution is what I suggested but in either way it will be bought, it cannot be cancelled, it is a matter of pride now and AKP will face a serious setback in inner politics if they cancel it, they can't be that stupid.

  18. #98

    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tureuki View Post
    It has been denied already, fake news.

    Learning how it works is one thing, entegrating it into NATO systems is another. USA complains about the latter. Best solution is what I suggested but in either way it will be bought, it cannot be cancelled, it is a matter of pride now and AKP will face a serious setback in inner politics if they cancel it, they can't be that stupid.
    I donīt really take claims from individuals serious - oftenly Official from an State representative after an serious Meeting with all those "individuals" should be taken more serious.

  19. #99
    Ybbon's Avatar The Way of the Buffalo
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    Default Re: Drumms of war in eastern mediteranean.

    Gentlemen, this thread is getting a little out of control. We're closing this down for 24 hours for a cool down and any clean up if required. We will reopen this tomorrow at which point if you coud all try to follow the pit rules it will be much appreciated.

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