UK Local Elections 2019

[Aexodus]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48157991

The Tories were positively slaughtered in the elections this week, losing over 1000 council seats. The main winners of the election was the Liberal Democrats who gained 700 seats. Independents as a group made gains of around 600 seats.

This looks like the public punishing the two big parties, that being Conservatives and Labour, the latter losing 70 seats who had expected to make gains.

In Northern Ireland, the Alliance Party has made considerable gains as the DUP, UUP and Sinn Fein were snubbed at the polls. For example, Alliance topped every poll in the Lisburn and Castlereagh area: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48137685

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Its been incredibly interesting the way these results have been interpreted. The Lib-dems of course are arguing this is a natural anti-brexit, pragmatic anti-austerity, social change want of the electorate emerging. The big two parties are of course going 'protest vote'. Remainers from them are arguing that it shows a clear wish for a second referendum/no brexit is emerging, enough to reconsider (as UKIP were essentially obliterated, even with them standing in fewer seats, as were the Tories and Labour being 'on the fence' means they were punished). There is something to commend this as any protest vote indeed went to the Lib-Dems, Independents and Greens- Independents seem to have been a mix of pro and anti-brexit, and some who just didn't give two and were genuinely concerned with local issues).

The leadership of the big two though have taken it to mean that brexit just needs to be 'done', it potentially now will no longer matter about red lines (though i can't see a compromise on the way at all), or that a customs union is potentially merely remaining. They just want that box ticked to move on. Partly i suspect in the hope that any remain-related backlash in the lib-dem vote/Greens (who also benefited of course from Climate change becoming a dominant political issue), will peter out 'after the fact' and thus they can go to business as usual once brexit is no longer on the political agenda (A wild desperate hope i'd argue, but you can't blame them for wishing ).

Actual brexiteers, have all been like 'this has no bearing on brexit, we're being punished for not doing brexit quickly/not doing a hard brexit. -Which honestly makes little sense considering how the vote share went down. Apparently they were punished by pro-remain (the standard bearers of remain) liberal democrats actually seizing control of Conservative Councils... and that somehow is because those voters who switched want a hard-brexit quickly. But again, i guess they have to say something. Its made worse by the fact that the 'spoiled votes' only apparently number (according to this mornings BBC), 30,000 ballot papers, across all councils holding elections, so essentially compared to the lib-dem and Green surge there is no equivalent 'pro-brexit' surge. I think it was Lewis who was the best though and implied that brexit voters are 'saving themselves' for the European elections (which has usually roughly a similar turnout to the locals- around 30%- indeed its worth noting the turnout for this local election was exactly the same as expected historically- 29-30%, there thus was seemingly no 'protest' by staying at home), which is amusing as apparently according to this view its very taxing to vote and thus you can only do one .

Saying that, i'll actually go against what every other political commentator is saying right now- that actually the local elections should not be taken as red as being an opinion poll on brexit by any means (nor should ironically the European elections). A factor few have talked about, but is relevant is that Conservative austerity has essentially destroyed many local councils ability to fund services, schools are having to crowd-fund for equipment and public goods are being limited or shut down. While Labour alongside the Lib-dems offer an anti-austerity, pro-funding platform, Corbyn is divisive still (and national parties have a significant degree of impact alas on local elections, much to the annoyance of every local Councillor from all parties). Thus it's foreseeable that while a peeved former Conservative voter, who have had a letter from their child's school about the need to raise funds for core classroom equipment, and who have had their council tax go up, in return for less services, would struggle to vote for Labour, Lib-dems are not too much of a leap ideologically. They represent the good parts of Labour, without the perhaps uncomfortable, for them, ideological leanings.

Saying that, Labour managed to outright seize a Council from the Conservatives too, so their are limits to my thesis here, though i'd argue that the seizure while having a degree of brexit-relatedness, would also primarily be about Tory austerity.

Some general thoughts too. While this has been nightmarish for the Conservatives, reviving the pressure on May to go, it also isn't 'great' for Labour, who being in opposition for 9 years are not making the significant break-through they ideally should be having now. However, in 2017 we saw a similar thing, where Corbyn's Labour lost out heavily in local elections, only to when the GE came win bigger than any previous Labour party (this was helped by Conservative weirdness over policy, but i'll give Corbyn his due about how good a campaigner he is), so i'd question if the traditional link between local elections and National still holds true, particularly in the face of this result (though hey, maybe we are about the see come the next GE a Liberal democrat swarm?).

It will be interesting though the political fallout in the Conservative party from this, between this slaughter and the Gavin Williamson issue starting to rear its head (rather than abating), May might actually be in some serious trouble, partly of her own making. It might also galvanize something from May-Corbyn talks in an attempt to avoid the Euro elections and also kill Farage's party before it exists. However i doubt anything will come of these talks though.

[Greyblades]

Any stats on spoiled ballots?

[alhoon]

I would actually agree with most of the parties opinions - to a degree. To me, an outsider, it seems that all of them have some version of the truth that corresponds to some part of the electoral shift. I don't disagree that some voted as a "no Brexit" protest vote, but I am also sure some voted as "do the Brexit deal already!" vote and even some as "hard Brexit! No that lukewarm thing!" protest vote.

[Aexodus]

Around 30,000 spoiled ballots greyblades

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Any stats on spoiled ballots?

Aexodus has it right, around 30,000 according to the BBC commentators this morning. Some brexiters have commented on facebook (reliable source i know) that it might be as high as 33,000.

However despite the hype as the Daily Mail has rightly said 'higher than usual' number of spoiled ballots- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...n-results.html

Its not in any actually significant numbers. Especially when not compared to the Lib-dem, Green surge. If anything the pro-brexit presence just isn't really 'here' at this election as the 'punishment' for the big two has been a swelling for pro-remain parties (if we are to follow a brexit narrative for this, which as i mentioned earlier i would unlike every other commentator be hesitant to do ). What their certainly isn't though is as May, Corbyn and some brexiteer MP's and papers are spinning it as- this weird idea that because the Lib-dems had an astounding night, that brexit needs to be done asap (though maybe its because they perceive public support to be slipping for it/ many going 'i don't care'). The UKIP vote suffered so their wasn't even a protest element there, likewise turnout was typical for a local election so no seeming protest boycott from brexit supporters. Thus the May, Corbyn and Brexiteer narrative is kinda just weird (Again though i'm commenting on the political narrative being spun, not making assumptions about the extent of support for remain or brexit, which a Local election will not show especially well, nor will the European elections).

[Aexodus]

We really shouldn’t take the local nor european elections as accurate indicators for Brexit support, or as some kind of Brexit mandate. My prediction is that the Brexit party will win the Europeans, at which point you’ll have two sides chattering about who won what election and who has the ‘will of the people’.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

We really shouldn’t take the local nor european elections as accurate indicators for Brexit support, or as some kind of Brexit mandate. My prediction is that the Brexit party will win the Europeans, at which point you’ll have two sides chattering about who won what election and who has the ‘will of the people’.

Spot on, we'll essentially be back to right where we are right now .

The interesting thing though is that this could mean the Conservatives, both remain and brexiteers are going to be in serious trouble come the GE. If local elections are taken to be about not brexit (which as i mentioned is a weird thing to draw lines about considering how the votes fell), but is about Austerity (which given what happened in the shift in vote share i think it absolutely is), the Conservatives are not offering, or going to offer any remedies to austerity. Instead, their all discussing how brexit should be quicker, or softer, or harder. ahem. This blind spot could really cost them going forward.

[NorseThing]

Spot on, we'll essentially be back to right where we are right now .

The interesting thing though is that this could mean the Conservatives, both remain and brexiteers are going to be in serious trouble come the GE. If local elections are taken to be about not brexit (which as i mentioned is a weird thing to draw lines about considering how the votes fell), but is about Austerity (which given what happened in the shift in vote share i think it absolutely is), the Conservatives are not offering, or going to offer any remedies to austerity. Instead, their all discussing how brexit should be quicker, or softer, or harder. ahem. This blind spot could really cost them going forward.

This is exactly correct in my opinion. Local elections are first of all mainly about local issues. How this translates into support fro a national party is sometimes confused at best. When the major nation parties are in some manner in favor of Brexit but seem to toddle a bit and lack hast on implementation of exiting from the EU, it gets even more confusing. I will leave it to the 'experts' and their black magic bags of tools to 'explain' the results. In the end, the local election winners are stuck with dealing with local issues. Voters who do not understand this may be 'wasting' their vote.