Turkey's Local Elections 2019

[Abdülmecid I]

You mean Kadiköy (ancient city of Chalcedon). İznik is located further to the south and faces a lake, not the Sea of Marmara. Istanbul, a commercial and business hub, is by far the wealthiest region of modern Turkey, both in relative and absolute terms. Its GDP is more than three times larger than that of the second contestant (Ankara) and is essentially more than ten times the size of Mersin, Adana and Bodrum (Muğla). To be honest, this is hardly surprising, considering the vast population of the city (approximately 20% of the total Turkish population), its uninterrupted service as the imperial capital for several centuries and the fact that it is found in the center of two trade routes, maritime and land, linking respectively the Black with the Mediterranean Sea and Asia with Europe, of crucial importance. Neither of the ports in the Eastern Mediterranean can enjoy such a privileged position of global influence, while oil pipes and rivers of moderate size in a mountainous environment can hardly affect the urban economy. The Bosphorous Straits indeed suffer from excessive traffick, but the issue of the Istanbul Channel is more nuanced than the benefits it may provide to merchant ships crossing the Sea of Marmara. It would cost an immense amount of money, to a budget already overburdened, it will create a myriad of legal and ethical problems, as private property (including entire communities) will necessarily be confiscated, it will totally destabilise the fragile environmental balance in an already heavily urbanised region and will even provoke a series of diplomatic troubles, as the Istanbul Channel, unlike the Bosphorus Straits, will not be covered by the Montreux Convention. Anyway, Caspian Report provides an informative summary of the possible implications of the Istanbul Channel:

[Morifea]

Sorry for the Offtopic, but when I see the modern Istanbul in relation to the old City, I can only think of a now obese women that was once a beauty to behold.

20% of the whole population? Good god....

[PointOfViewGun]

Sorry for the Offtopic, but when I see the modern Istanbul in relation to the old City, I can only think of a now obese women that was once a beauty to behold.

20% of the whole population? Good god....

There is still beauty in this city...

[Morifea]

@PointofViewGun: I know, I`m looking forward to the day of my visit of Istanbul.... My post was more about the insane growth of the City.

[alhoon]

It would be extremely idiotic. Most importantly, the channel would completely kill the ecosystem and disrupt sea currents. That could very well render Bosphorus a stinking river. For that fact alone it would be an idiotic project. The project itself is would be so costly that the benefits from it would be of no value. It's not like there are dozens of countries on each side. It's just Russia.

I completely disagree. Bosporous is already a stinking river and I disagree with treehuggers that value the lives of the few remaining fish over international trade routes. Sucks to be a fish, life is unfair.

Whatever the costs for the project are, the channel will be there in 100 years and I doubt it would take more than 20-30 years to recuperate the cost. I.e. next generation will benefit from this project. As for "not a dozen countries, just Russia"... well, "Just" Russia covers a good part of the globe and has a lot of resources that it trades. It is not "just" Russia, it is "Russia, capital of resources" as China's raw resources also pass through Russia.
While they could go by train over the Baltics and get in ships there, don't underestimate the potential trade revenue from Bosporous, that makes it much more important than the lives of a few fish.

EDIT: Abdulmecid I will watch that when I can, since it sounds interesting.
Still, from what I hear over here, the channel is sorely needed. At the very least, the straights should be expanded to allow more traffic.

[PointOfViewGun]

@PointofViewGun: I know, I`m looking forward to the day of my visit of Istanbul.... My post was more about the insane growth of the City.

You are right about that. The city expanded insanely and in a very disorderly manner. The current government acts as if Istanbul is the only city in Turkey. They do that because of its influence, hence, they act as if Istanbul should house everyone. That's also the major reason why AKP's loss of Istanbul is such a big deal.

[PointOfViewGun]

I completely disagree. Bosporous is already a stinking river and I disagree with treehuggers that value the lives of the few remaining fish over international trade routes. Sucks to be a fish, life is unfair.


Whatever the costs for the project are, the channel will be there in 100 years and I doubt it would take more than 20-30 years to recuperate the cost. I.e. next generation will benefit from this project. As for "not a dozen countries, just Russia"... well, "Just" Russia covers a good part of the globe and has a lot of resources that it trades. It is not "just" Russia, it is "Russia, capital of resources" as China's raw resources also pass through Russia.
While they could go by train over the Baltics and get in ships there, don't underestimate the potential trade revenue from Bosporous, that makes it much more important than the lives of a few fish.


EDIT: Abdulmecid I will watch that when I can, since it sounds interesting.
Still, from what I hear over here, the channel is sorely needed. At the very least, the straights should be expanded to allow more traffic.

What an ignorant response... How is the Bosphorus already a stinking river? Having a second channel between the Black sea and Marmara sea doesn't just concern a few fish. The entire Marmara sea where tourism occurs can smell rotten eggs if the new channel is built. There is a very delicate balance in the region. Two currents exists in the Bosphorus. The upper current brings back less salty water from the Black sea while the lower current brings salty water. The new channel will also eliminate a number of water sources for the city. The entire ecology of the region is under question.

Yes, just Russia. China is better off passing through Caucasus down to Adana and ship its goods from there. Going through Russia and then through Black sea, Marmara sea and the Aegean sea is a much longer route. Sure, Russia's trade is very important, but it's not important enough to create an island out of Istanbul while killing the whole region. It is an idiotic project beyond any imagination.

[alhoon]

Oh come on, you're overly dramatic. The "entire ecology" of the region is at risk if a new channel is made? The whole marmara Sea will stink up over a channel? Come on. Such changes don't happen that easily.

[PointOfViewGun]

Oh come on, you're overly dramatic. The "entire ecology" of the region is at risk if a new channel is made? The whole marmara Sea will stink up over a channel? Come on. Such changes don't happen that easily.

That easily? We're talking about opening a new channel between two large bodies of water.

Will you or will you not explain how the Bosphorus is already a stinking river?

[alhoon]

I will not, since it is an assumption based on the traffic these straights see. Also, I don't see how the new channel between two large bodies of water would "stink up" a sea with 3400 cubic kilometers of water.

[PointOfViewGun]

I will not, since it is an assumption based on the traffic these straights see. Also, I don't see how the new channel between two large bodies of water would "stink up" a sea with 3400 cubic kilometers of water.

Sigh... I would appreciate if you didn't make stuff up. The Bosphorus sees a lot of traffic but there is also active currents that clean up the routes. People are able to swim in the Bosphorus and it doesn't smell bad at all. The rotten egg warning was made by WWF. They warn that the new channel will ruin the chemical balance of the waters and suffocate the existing life with lack of oxygen, creating a hydrogen sulphide build up that will make Istanbul smell like rotten egg.

[alhoon]

The above picture seems photoshopped, but I believe you that people swim there. Can I see the warning by WWF please? I am still skeptical that a channel would completely obliterate the currents and drastically change the ecosystem. Of course, WWF guys know their stuff, but I would like to read it since I expect it to be "perhaps" or "might cause problems" instead of "Warning!" with big red letters.

And another thing: Assumptions (whether correct or not) is not the same as "making things up".

[PointOfViewGun]

The above picture seems photoshopped, but I believe you that people swim there. Can I see the warning by WWF please? I am still skeptical that a channel would completely obliterate the currents and drastically change the ecosystem. Of course, WWF guys know their stuff, but I would like to read it since I expect it to be "perhaps" or "might cause problems" instead of "Warning!" with big red letters.

And another thing: Assumptions (whether correct or not) is not the same as "making things up".

It's not photoshopped... The warning from WWF is in Turkish. The title of their warning reads: "Marmara Can Turn Into A Dead Sea When Kanal Istanbul Is Opened" Countless experts come out to warn about the consequences of opening up a new channel between Black sea and Marmara sea. You have presented no argument to suggest that their concerns are unfounded. Your skepticism means jack.

Assumptions are not making things up, yes, that's not what you did. You made things up. You made claims that were unfounded, you did not make assumptions.

[IMG]https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*we1ugd7ptSszBcWuzPWkUQ.jpeg[/IMG]

[alhoon]

Assumptions are not making things up, yes, that's not what you did. You made things up. You made claims that were unfounded, you did not make assumptions.

Nope, it was assumptions. I even said it was an assumption based on the maritime traffic before you mentioned the various currents that clean up the place.

PS. I would still avoid bathing there; many people avoid Sunio in Greece for example because it is too close to Athens and has too many hotels to be considered clean. And a blue flag won't convince me since I have seen blue flags, leftovers from 4-5 years ago in beaches where hotel sewage would make you swim next to used toilet paper when the currents were bad.

[PointOfViewGun]

It's not a crushing defeat for Erdoğan, but, as already mentioned, it is still a small positive step towards gradually undermining the kleptocratic mechanism of AKP. Its prestige is damaged and many precious opportunities of embezzling public money through shady contracting and corrupted management have just been lost. Meanwile, Maçoğlu's victory in Tunceli is also good news. The province is quite small, population-wise, but his success has at least broken HDP's monopoly of a leftist agenda in Turkey. The primary reason for which the Turkish left is currently found in such an infantile and weak state is that any talk about "socialism" or secularism is immediately hijacked by the revisionist, tribalist and frequently self-contradictory message of HDP populists. The fact that TCP is in fact one of the few remaining Communist Parties, whose manifestos, regardless of anyone's views towards Marxism, is at least founded upon some coherent ideas about economy, labour and society, means that the prospect of the Turkish left evolving from HDP's identity and reactionary politics towards something more scientific and mature is not completely unfeasible.

Losing Istanbul really is a crushing defeat, both psychologically and financially. It is where Erdoğan started his career. He was the mayor of Istanbul between 94 and 98. Istanbul represent entirety of Turkey. For the past decades any party that won Istanbul also won Turkey. It is a tremendous loss for them. The opposition didn't just won Ankara but also Istanbul together in one election. Istanbul is also a city with a lot of population from other cities. If Imamoglu manages to create success in Istanbul than it will affect the entirety of Turkey as all those people passing through Istanbul will bring around the stories of change. Financially, its the major source of income for them. No other city comes even close. So, losing Istanbul can very well be a headshot if not well handled. In worst case, it is a shot on the knee that requires amputation.

Here is a nice little information to put things in perspective. Before the elections AKP-controlled provinces accounted for 74.5% of the Turkish economy. Today, that share went down to 30.1% while CHP's share went up to 62.1%. Istanbul's share is 31.23% by itself. Ankara, the next most important city, makes up of 9.03%.

[Tureuki]

To be honest they can easily change the system to limit the authority of major. Also they still hold more than half of the seats of municipality council, which means they can greatly hinder the work of new major if they want to.

This victory's impact is largely emotional.

[PointOfViewGun]

To be honest they can easily change the system to limit the authority of major. Also they still hold more than half of the seats of municipality council, which means they can greatly hinder the work of new major if they want to.

This victory's impact is largely emotional.

Not true. They didn't get more than 50% in the municipality council part.

[alhoon]

This victory's impact is largely emotional.

Elections and power are based largely on emotions though. I.e. the perception of weakness will lead opportunistic mid-rank officials to change sides. It would also invigorate the opposition and erode the government's base.

And it also proved to us outsiders that Erdogan is not the dictator he thinks he is. His power is still checked by the power of the people even if he puts his opponents in jail and gives positions to his lackeys.

[dogukan]

Losing İstanbul means a ton. They have still not given up on it and they are making it recount as we speak.

Its not just 20% of the population, it is also 50% of GDP, highest value land and the municipality that involves billions of dollars of procuments to be handed over to allies.
It is home to hundreds of thousands of municipality related jobs, which brings you millions of dependent voters that you have direct access to both ideologically and economically.

It has tens of institutions that generate huge amounts of revenue to be distributed. The municipality right now already funds many Islamist-related NGOs which allows them to spread their reach and ideology.

More important than that, it is where you shape the SPACE of a city. The space of a city is where future ideologies are generated. The neighnourhood you grow up in defines your lifestyles and worldviews. There is a reason that vote differences make a big impact from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
This is even more important in a country like Turkey where you have two clashing lifestyles fighting over space. (secular vs islamist)
This is most clearly visible as we speak with the construction of a mosque in the taksim square still going on and the Islamized-social life around center of the city.

AKP is built on many communities(mostly religious but also certain circles of elites from conservative-right wing background) that it feeds through networks and procurements. Such a loss suddenly changes their rhetoric built on them being the only legitimate entity.
Even today, I can see people becoming more vocal about their opposition in jobs they work(bureaucracy) because they feel emboldened. Even the little fact that people are more eager to speak their opposition views is a way to spread your biews. Because people were so scared of being extremely illegitimate.



Also, you guys are wrong about Maçoğlu. First of all, he is not from the "Turkish Communist Party". He is from DHF(I might be mistaken about exact organization), a Maoist organization local to Dersim that is also part of HDP alliance. The only mainstream party that represents something close to maçoğlu is HDP's. Maçoğlu's views are not identical to TCP. Most of his supporters are HDP people that sympathize with him. They do not see HDP as enemies. The whole issue is a PR disaster by HDP. They could have simply supported the guy and get the positive vibes coming from all over the country. HDP negotiated with him to remove him. Instead, because of some inner conflicts, they disagreed and HDP thought they can easily smash him.
Now HDP has apologized and promised to work together and help his works in Dersim. Both groups are basically revolving around the same base, ideology and methods.
As an HDP-activist, I am glad he won. I was tired of PKK wasting the quality energy of Dersim and causing people to die or run away. That is literally a "safe zone" for radical left in Turkey. And we should nurture it, not ruin it for the war.

[Darios]

@PointofViewGun: I know, I`m looking forward to the day of my visit of Istanbul.... My post was more about the insane growth of the City.

I just returned from a trip there last week. It is such an amazing city with very kind and helpful people! I was also the first one in line when Hagia Sophia opened at 9 am, so I literally had the entire place to myself for about 5 minutes. What an experience!

I had to deal with insane traffic jams and crowds in the Old City on the day of the Erdogan rally but it didn't last too long.

I already want to go back. I felt at home there.