Turkey's Local Elections 2019

[Odenat]

Does that mean you changed sides?
Did you turn after the Apo annoucement?

I never voted once in my life for Erdogan. I hate his stupid Cumhur alliance too. You are confusing supporting Turkish state with supporting Erdoğan.

Didn't Erdogan claim that the now new mayor of Constantinople is greek?
Curious to have a greek be part of the kemalist party. One would expect him to be like Kemal himself, ie jewish

Erdoğan and his AKP made huge mistakes during this campaign, it is like they want to lose the election. He said the new mayor Imamoglu is a Greek because he is from "Pontus". Of course this made everyone from Black Sea region very, very angry and he lost their votes. Imagine you have 2 candidates for Greek presidency and as one of them is born at Mustafa Kemal's city Selanik, the other accuse him of being Turkish. He also said stupid things like "even though they are Kurdish, they are still human." (for HDP voters) Then at the last day before election, Erdogan said PKK leader sent a letter asking for HDP voters to not vote for Imamoglu. This of course made every MHP voter (his own allies) very angry and he lost the majority of their votes too.

But we have a saying at the Toros mountains that i was born; an old wolf have many tricks. Erdoğan lost this election but he is still powerful. Central Anatolia is behind him, they see him as the greatest leader Turkish had since Suleiman the Magnificient.

[PointOfViewGun]

Biggest mistake of AKP was to cling to PKK leader Öcalan by having him draft a letter calling out HDP to stay neutral in the elections and service it on government mediums. Someone like Bahçeli, AKP's nationalist right wing coalition ally MHP's leader, defended that letter and got mad at HDP, a mostly Kurdic party, for not followıng Öcalan's call. The day after that they had Öcalan's brother, who was being seeked with an Interpol red notice for his ties to PKK, give an interview on state-run TV of Turkey. None of that sit well with MHP voters. AKP didn't just lose votes from Kurds through cheap tactics but they also lost votes from nationalists for trying to play both sides.

[Kyriakos]

they see him as the greatest leader Turkish had since Suleiman the Magnificient.

And he will take the country back to the medieval era, only everyone else is in the 21st century now

[AnthoniusII]

In Facebook i spoke with many Turks that agreed to a fact...Erdogan's stradegy was to emphasise in the fear... With his fiestas about the conquest of Constantinople he passed the message that Turks are still PROUD but invadors that need him to ensure that no one will claim the lands they live today. But west Turkey population that co-exsist with east Greece population does not feel such a threat. Instead they are willing to embrace the City's (Constantinople) past and be part of its history and most of all its future without going to bed every night with the fear of the Greek boogyman that will come and sent him to Mongolia! The fear Erdogan tries to implant with the neo Ottoman fiestas has impact only to uneducated people deep in anatolia but not in the west shores! Even today Turkish turists visit every day greek islands and make friendships. Also the noe Ottoman phase Erdogan tries to implant to the population has too many mistakes. As a friend of mine from Turkey posted as answer to my post

For the 1st time of the history of the city a Turkish Mayor embraces ALL human races they live in it plus for the first time a Turkish politician does not "feel" alien in the city but part of its past and its future the same time. Erdogan's story was a constant "fear" of a nation that conquered lands and went to bed with a fear that someone will come and get them back. He tried so hard with those rediculus celebracions of the city's conquest to make Turks feel strangers of where they lived. Its time for modern Turks to embrace the past of the land they live on , without any complex of fear and start thinking how they will continue that legecy with their own prospective. History is there and does not change but people have two choices. To embrace history or live in fear of it. The new mayor "seams" (we have to see) that embraces the City's communities as a common body of citizens that have the same propblems in every day living and have no room to fear that someone someday will coime to make them "refugees"! That prospective may boost the city's turism even more. By embracing its past and show it without any complex , turism will flow to show all those phaces the city passed in its history. A good mayor would secure to show the Greek Byzantion, the Roman New Rome and the Ottoman Instabul to turists to wellcome them in a journey to history. That what i would do in his place. Common people have similar every day life problems that are enough to add fear to them !

:

... indeed, just on top of that i need to add this, Ottomans were calling this town mostly Konstantiniyye due to respect to their rival and it's historical grace. Today's Erdoğanist nationalist populism created another perception of history, as many other ethnicities never existed in Anatolia after 1071. But at the moment Turkish nation has a bigger problem than one particular municipality election, this problem is a concesequence of a century of fear and hate. I see the same intention amongs Greeks as well. This just has to stop.

A wise message from him indeed.

[dogukan]

Pinning the whole thing around the Greek issue would be too shallow.

To make a simple analysis:

Erodğan's AKP was a non-discriminatory, political islamist party that promised to change Turkey, to end the existing militaristic-secularistic rule which created its own elite. To save all the Kurds, Muslims even Alevites who were being excluded from the regime.
For this democratization process, they took the boost from
-EU institutions adaptations
-EU integration and the inflow of a lot of FDI (records in 2006)
-USA's support for a Turkey-led "moderate Islam" in the Middle East, that işs friendly to global capital under a democratic regime
-2000s commodity boom + mild impact of 2008 crisis due to 2001 banking reforms (pre-AKP) + post-2008 liquidification of global finance which gave a lot of cheap capital to developing world


AKP grew on these. Over time, they took over the state entity they struggled against. They created a new elite, a new set of business circle and finally had their shot at bureaucracy.

However, all these reforms had come to bite them as people demanded more democracy and we had the 2013 Gezi protests. From then on, AKP turned to a more authoritarian stance. They also gave a shot at the peace process with Kurds but it became clear that it was only to bolster their own votes rather than actual reforming as they needed Kurds for Islamification. When this backfied in 2015 elections, they took an even harsher route. This led to the 2016 coup attempts by one of the Islamist factions. The failure of the coup gave AKP a whole new identity.
From then on, AKP became the unquestionale system and Erdoğan the unquestionable leader. Even among themselves. AKP lost all its feedback mechanisms and its grassroots political structure. It became a party of power-lowers who were just there for their insincere demands. The system created extreme power inequality which gave a lot of room for anyone who wanted to gain easily by siding with AKP.

When combined with the brain drain, turning of global economic trends, rise of new Kurdish and secularist forms of opposition...AKP started to fail delivering. Unemployment soared, the sectors they relied on died out, the debt-led growth they caused started to bite back. They needed to ally with nationalists to cling power, which changed their identity. Meanwhile, they realized that the dream Ismalist society they wanted to achieve became impossible as the new generations rapidly secularized under powerful impact of a consumer society in a globally connected world with internet. The party became corrupter and corrupter, hurting the ones that struggled for it for decades.
They had to change political positions every couple months and lies simply built up and built-up.
To survive, they had to build their rule not on promising a new future like before but on polarizing, threats and hostility. They emphasized the idea that if they lose, Turkey will end. They kept saying this for all the last elections, and people got fed up. How many more elections do you want to make sure we are not going to be destroyed? They lost all their believability.

Ekrem İmamoğlu came at the right time with the right inclusive, democratic, anti-corruption attitude. He is far from a classic CHP-secularist identity. The Kurds see him like a second Demirtaş. The nationalists have no problem with his attitude. Secularists are ready to embrace a person that has Muslim but Democratic outlook.
The tiredness of people from AKP's threats and failures combined with their extremely unfair treatment of the opposition. And who doesn't love a good underdog?
And voila. A record in Istanbul.



Erdoğan is FAR from over. But the AKP-MHP system's best days are behind. Turkey will never catch the same Islamist dynamics in the future. The dreams of political system has been squashed all over the middle east. And new, more secular oriented identities(extreme nationalism vs liberal pluralism) are shaping the future of Turkey.
Erdoğan might get the the 2023, but this movement will AT MOST as much as Erdoğan's lifespan. And even that is questionable.

[PointOfViewGun]

İmamoğlu is the CHP identity. Just because some people tried their best to portray that identity as being something else for decades doesn't change that...

[dogukan]

He is hardly a typical CHP figure. In many ways, he is a center-right wing character, from a business background from a conservative family.

This is NOT the "same" CHP that ulusalcıs(nationalist Kemalists) represent. It is a highly liberal side of the CHP. It is the same CHP that nationalists have been criticizing for years, both within and outside CHP. (the concept of Y-CHP which was embraced by AKP but also by the CHP base) You, Setekh, are included. You also have had a highly ulusalcı position throughout the years and was in fact critical of closeness of CHP to HDP.

This CHP is Kaftancıoğlu's CHP, the pro-HDP, pro-Demirtaş, CHP. It feeds from the same dynamics that fed the HDP in 2015 in its inclusivity.

This is not to say that this view was NEVER in CHP. But it has been rising significantly in the recent years with changes from Kılıçdaroğlu. It is not the "typical" CHP of the past 20 years.

In fact, the liberal-line did bad for a while and had to use a more nationalist/ulusalcı figure like Muharrem İnce, who was also becoming a lot more mild towards HDP in the recent years. - From my perspective, the HDP-CHP coming together was inevitable. I've been saying this for almost a decade at this point It is simply a natural alliance in the world of anti-West, anti-Liberal political-islamist + islamo-nationalists.

By now, the ulusalcı dynamics in CHP has died out to a larger extend as we have clearly seen ulusalcı figures like Feyzioğlu(who was thought for the position of CHP's leadership at some point) or Perinçek(though minor in voting base, his views show an extreme form of ulusalcı Kemalists) sided with the state-reflexes.
It shows a lot. Even the fact that DSP was used by the AKP-cooperating state against CHP due to "alliance with terrorists".

So let us be honest here.
İmamoğlu IS a CHP-figure, sure, he is a secular democrat. He is however, NOT, a typical CHP figure. Not at all. The leadership of CHP has shifted a lot more towards liberal-left in the recent years. Whereas in the previous era, CHP was associated with a nationalist-state reflex that was the iron hand of secularism and unitarian state.
Today, CHP have embraced many ideas of HDP like decentralized governance...etc.

I as an HDP supporter feel like my ideas are 100% represented in İmamoğlu. His new governance model for municipalities is pretty much that of HDPs. And now you will all see that this is not about "seperatism" or evil "imperialist tools"

[Tureuki]

You are exaggerating the CHP-HDP closeness. Keep in mind that neither Eko or CHP gave any daring promises to HDP. All they ever said was "PKK is a terrorist organization, but we are ready to embrace everyone, including the HDP." But will HDP stay okay with that? Eko and the "New CHP" still revolves around Ataturk and basic principles of nationalism with a shallow, undetailed "embracing" policy, if they somehow get into the power, HDP will have demands, but if CHP answers them, it is highly unlikely that they will survive it without a major impact to their already not that numerous vote base(compared to AKP base). So i would say the loose relationship between two parties is very fragile. The only way it would surely work is if the HDP changes its policy and cuts off the PKK from their official stance. There is also the IYI factor too, which makes it even more fragile.

[PointOfViewGun]

CHP was never a leftist party. It have never been a rightest party either. To try to explain it within these terms is to not understand it. Such a lack of understanding was often behind failed politics of certain CHP members. Imamoglu on the other hand succeeded greatly because he brought the party back to its roots in people's minds. dogukan, you should really stay away from making assumptions about people's past positions, especially when you fail to provide the slightest accuracy in your portrayal.

You are exaggerating the CHP-HDP closeness. Keep in mind that neither Eko or CHP gave any daring promises to HDP. All they ever said was "PKK is a terrorist organization, but we are ready to embrace everyone, including the HDP." But will HDP stay okay with that? Eko and the "New CHP" still revolves around Ataturk and basic principles of nationalism with a shallow, undetailed "embracing" policy, if they somehow get into the power, HDP will have demands, but if CHP answers them, it is highly unlikely that they will survive it without a major impact to their already not that numerous vote base(compared to AKP base). So i would say the loose relationship between two parties is very fragile. The only way it would surely work is if the HDP changes its policy and cuts off the PKK from their official stance. There is also the IYI factor too, which makes it even more fragile.

The ties between CHP and HDP are mostly strategic. It's welcomed by sound minded people to bring down AKP. However, HDP received an other chance with the latest election partially thanks to AKP as they used the Ocalan card. If they want to be a "party of Turkey" they need to publicly distance themselves from PKK. Otherwise, they will never be part of the table directly like they are not today.

[dogukan]

You are exaggerating the CHP-HDP closeness. Keep in mind that neither Eko or CHP gave any daring promises to HDP. All they ever said was "PKK is a terrorist organization, but we are ready to embrace everyone, including the HDP." But will HDP stay okay with that? Eko and the "New CHP" still revolves around Ataturk and basic principles of nationalism with a shallow, undetailed "embracing" policy, if they somehow get into the power, HDP will have demands, but if CHP answers them, it is highly unlikely that they will survive it without a major impact to their already not that numerous vote base(compared to AKP base). So i would say the loose relationship between two parties is very fragile. The only way it would surely work is if the HDP changes its policy and cuts off the PKK from their official stance. There is also the IYI factor too, which makes it even more fragile.

What will HDP want from Eko? He is everything we want. What OTHER thing can Hdp demand from Eko?

I am not exaggrating the chp-hdp closeness. This chp and hdp always cooperates behind the scenes. The reason for that is the irrational hate pf secular nationalists from everything kurd related.
This gives akp an opportunity to divide the opposition. The hdp doesnt have a problem with iyi, but its not the other way around.

Hence the formula is : chp-ip-saadet alliance + unofficial hdp support

HDP is fine with not getting full credit. We dont need it. We simply want a fair democracy with full representation and an emphasis on decentralization from the old unitarian all powerful fascist statist ideology. Where different identities can be represented fairly.

Leadership of all these groups are well aware that akp-mhp is the bigger threat for the future of this country.
However their bases are not fully compatible, so they go around it.


If chp goes loco and showes kemalist cultism-nationalism of ulusalcıs into the throats of its new following, it would disintegrate back to 25% and celebrations in caddebostan by chp teyzes.
It is a stupid undemocratic stance anyways.
This victory is the victory of new chp.
And with all these boosts, i am hoping it will entrench and institutionalize further as the liberal factions becomes stronger.

Even the IP leadership is aware that kurds are impossible to ignore at this point for instance. Not that this is a mere kurd issue...

[dogukan]

CHP was never a leftist party. It have never been a rightest party either. To try to explain it within these terms is to not understand it. Such a lack of understanding was often behind failed politics of certain CHP members. Imamoglu on the other hand succeeded greatly because he brought the party back to its roots in people's minds. dogukan, you should really stay away from making assumptions about people's past positions, especially when you fail to provide the slightest accuracy in your portrayal.

İmamoğlu brought the party to its "roots"?
Hows that?

[PointOfViewGun]

What will HDP want from Eko? He is everything we want. What OTHER thing can Hdp demand from Eko?

If HDP asks for Netflix membership for Öcalan they're not getting it. Sadly, that's a real concern for HDP...

[Tureuki]

So are you saying HDP just dropped all their usual demands, with an extreme autonomy being the primary one? Are they just fine with sweet speeches and handshakes? I'm talking about those. It is highly unlikely that CHP can answer such requests without losing IYI and a very significiant chunk of their own base. If HDP did drop those, that's fine.

[dogukan]

Chp is not the ruling party(and if they WANT to be the ruling party they ll need to compromise either with kurds or islamists) of Turkey and İmamoğlu is not the president.

The adress for demand for autonomy isnt there.
Decentralization is a major demand of HDP and the future of istanbul under eko will be an important experience. His idea of neighbourhood councils etc are all in HDPs progran too.
As a municipal governor, he is everything HDP wants.

As for autonomy and other stuff for Kurds. The solution for that is at other institutions.


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[Odenat]

You are forgetting how much the economic crisis and the fall of Turkish lira affected the middle class which are traditional AKP voters. And making the elections at March, which is when the vegetable/fruit prices are the highest was a huge mistake. Yes, AKP lost votes because of their rhetoric but the reason they lost 7 of 8 biggest cities is, as Bill Clinton said; "It's the economy, stupid".

And he will take the country back to the medieval era, only everyone else is in the 21st century now

Maybe you'll be shocked but many islamists are perfectly fine with living at middle age conditions as long as they are ruled by a hardliner muslim. I know people who refuse to buy a TV at their home because it is "against the prophet's teachings". I had a friend who only listened to radio (he had a wife and 2 children and he forced them to do the same.) These people will vote for Erdoğan whatever he does.

[Tureuki]

Chp is not the ruling party(and if they WANT to be the ruling party they ll need to compromise either with kurds or islamists) of Turkey and İmamoğlu is not the president.

The adress for demand for autonomy isnt there.
Decentralization is a major demand of HDP and the future of istanbul under eko will be an important experience. His idea of neighbourhood councils etc are all in HDPs progran too.
As a municipal governor, he is everything HDP wants.

As for autonomy and other stuff for Kurds. The solution for that is at other institutions.


Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk

That's my point, at the moment everything is cool, but there is no need to exaggerate the situation because the future is vague. This unofficial, loose "alliance" thingy will run for the other institutions in the future, that is when the problems will arouse if HDP again draws out the autonomy and education in Kurdish demands. There are so many inconsistencies between three parties, middle ground is needed and HDP's primary demands are far from the middle ground.

[AnthoniusII]

I find my self agree with isolated points from all of you -posting after my post- for several reasons.
Its true that the nationalist party (the one that claims that Greece invaded and has under oqupation 16 Turkish islands) had to find a person that would unite non party members aiming ONLY the "fall" of the Sultan Erdogan.
That makes Imamoglou not a typical (yet) member of the nationalistic party. That remains to be seen IF that party takes the goverment again.
I also agree that Erdogan is far from over simply because he is playing the Turkish hero card to unite the masses. Many analists agree that if Erdogan will feel that loses the ground under his feet he wont hesitade to play the card of the "evil Greeks that try to take turkish lands" in order to unite all Turks against the common enemy. If he "activate" that threat , even military personel that is now in prison will ask to join the war against the old enemy under Erdogan's banner.
I remind you that nationalist party that ruled for decades NEVER tried to solve the Kurdish problem with negosiations. That card Imamoglou plays now is the same Erdogan played when a decade ago visited Kurdistan and promised Kurds more autonomy that never came!
If the "common war" game looks odd to your eyes let me remind you what happend in 1940 in Greece that had a Dictatorship that had only 5% of the population's tolerance!
But when Italy invaded Greece even the political exiles (40000) signed a paper that asked the one that exiled them , the chance to fight the country's enemy.
That is one of the most stable principals in human history. "When you have a domestic crisis you find a common enemy to unite your population".
Remember Foklands in 1982!

EDIT:
@Odenat
Kemal was NOT born in Selanik as you call it but in a small village 20 kms north from it , only 3kms frome where i live. So...do your homework and learn things better.
His fammily moved to Thesaloniki only when he was already 10 years old. Follow the star on the map. That village is today ruins but hundreds of Turks visit it every year.

[ioannis76]

Erdoğan might get the the 2023, but this movement will AT MOST as much as Erdoğan's lifespan. And even that is questionable.

Isn't there anyone to take over after him? Like any good Sultan, I think that he would make sure there is someone to succeed him. How about Albayrak? You know, the very fact that he made a pig's breakfast out of the economy may even count in his favour. He could advertise that the "evil west" is fighting him.

[Tureuki]

He is out of favor. It was a wrong move to appoint him as the minister of economy, people thought Erdo appointing his own son in law to a position that was unfit to his background was morally not right. And nobody thinks he is doing a good job in his position.

[Alastor]

He is out of favor.

Apparently big time. A Turkish colleague told me yesterday that not only did Albayrak cheat on Erdogan's daughter with some model. But he also got beaten up by thugs, allegedly tasked by Erdogan to teach him a lesson. In fact he told me off for having missed the juicy news. Unfortunately I haven't yet been able to find an English source. Does any of the Turkish members here have one? If even a small part of that is true it would make for another good cautionary tale for the dangers of nepotism and further discredit Erdogan.