Turkey's Local Elections 2019

[Tureuki]

Normally, local elections pose little importance for politics, however, Erdogan was extremely ambitious this time, because in a detoriorating economy and prestige this was his best shot at declaring the world and his opponents that he was still solid and strong, results took unexpected turns though, they lost the capital in addition to several other big cities such as Antalya and Adana, but most importantly, they likely lost Istanbul too, that is a massive lose, they are denying to declare the final result since last night, but when they stopped the process the gap was around 4k votes and opposition candidate was rapidly closing it.

With the addition of Istanbul, opposition candidates has won 4 of 5 biggest cities and lost the fifth one with a very close margin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47764393

[dogukan]

The municipalities are crucial for them to distribute resources and procurements to allies.

In a non-transparent semi dictatorship like turkey, these losses are massive.

We should stick to prevent them from stealing istanbul now as they are already making plans for that.


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[Odenat]

I'm happy with the results; Erdoğan still won the elections with 45%. CHP took only 30% of the votes with all the support they got from the West and HDP. If this was a general election, Erdoğan would become president again. (AKP+MHP votes is 52%). Yet, AKP lost a few major cities which means they need to work harder and they will be less fanatic. I hope they will return to the days between 2002-2008 when they were really working hard.

Turkey does not have any more election for the next 4 years. As Erdoğan said, now is the time to work harder for our country. He specially mentioned "defence industry" when he was speaking about what they will do in the near future. I expect Turkey to focus more on the economy and defence industry in the next years.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

As long as inflation is so high, his powerbase will erode. His voters want in first line be able to afford food. Like everywhere else in the world. I think he is got "drunken" by his own success so far and has no counselors any more, who oppose him, when he is going to make a wrong, especially economical decision.

I'm thinking especially at his intervention in the plan of the turkish central bank to increase the interests to cool down the debts of the private economy and so cool down the inflation.

[tgoodenow]

I can't post pictures but if you look at the charts on the below article, you will see that the central bank is in a problematic area when it comes to raising interests rates because of their debt to GDP ratios. Higher interest rates will lead to more debt defaults. If they don't fix inflation, purchasing power will continue to erode. If they go after inflation through interest rates, they will hit all businesses with outstanding loans which will make the recession worse. They will likely suffer economically for some time regardless of what they choose.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2019/03/31/turkeys-bubble-is-bursting/#7145d1ac5103

[PointOfViewGun]

AKP lost Istanbul and Ankara. This means that they lost their access to major money generating schemes that they use to keep their funders alive. Going forward, they will have a really hard time keeping up their appearances. Today is a good day.

[alhoon]

The municipalities are crucial for them to distribute resources and procurements to allies.

In a non-transparent semi dictatorship like turkey, these losses are massive.

We should stick to prevent them from stealing istanbul now as they are already making plans for that.


Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk

I really don't have much love for Erdogan. I also think he's too authoritarian and his goal is to concentrate even more power.
However:
"non-transparent semi dictatorship " doesn't exactly fit with "massive losses in elections". I am pleasantly surprised that Erdogan's efforts to erode democracy in Turkey have not be successful. A dictator doesn't lose elections.

[Odenat]

Exactly. Calling Turkey as "non-transparent semi dictatorship" just the day Erdoğan lost Ankara, Istanbul, İzmir, Adana, Antalya is really funny. He lost 5 of the 6 biggest cities and is still being called a dictator.

The real winner of this elections is Turkish nationalists. MHP and IP won important municipalities and both AKP and CHP needs them at the future.

By the way, a communist won one of the Turkish cities (Tunceli) the first time in history.

[Aexodus]

Apparently local elections in Turkey are a big deal, so this is a big loss for Erdogan. Something like 90% of Turkey’s economy is now in CHP constituencies, so as someone above said AKP are going to have problems financially, and at grass roots level methinks.

[Tureuki]

That communist dude may improve the prestige and reception of communist/socialist politicians to a deal. Hdp's wannabe socialist Kurdish nationalists are going crazy over him, calling him names, threatening him etc.

[PointOfViewGun]

Modern dictators don't have the same luxuries of their ancestors. They can cling to power through manipulation and small alterations here and there. They do not control the process. They can only try to influence it through unethical and corrupt measures.

The primary winner of this election was CHP. They managed to win over all three of the most important Turkish cities. Winning Istanbul alone is a major victory. However, their biggest victory is that they broke the perception that they always lose. For a decade, even though CHP have been increasing its share in votes, they were failing to make substantial wins. They broke that record. However, their ally, IYIP, despite being crucial in CHP's win over big cities could not generate any win over big cities itself. Though it should be noted that it was their first local elections experience.

MHP was an other winner. They supported AKP and managed to win over a dozen municipalities with their support. AKP, however, lost substantially. MHP's help was not enough in big cities like Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara. They could only cling to many of the other municipalities through the support for MHP.

HDP, on the other hand, received a number of losses in its own backyard, in the south eastern regions. They made the tactical choice not to have candidates in various western cities, and that likely contributed greatly to CHP's wins.

[Abdülmecid I]

It's not a crushing defeat for Erdoğan, but, as already mentioned, it is still a small positive step towards gradually undermining the kleptocratic mechanism of AKP. Its prestige is damaged and many precious opportunities of embezzling public money through shady contracting and corrupted management have just been lost. Meanwile, Maçoğlu's victory in Tunceli is also good news. The province is quite small, population-wise, but his success has at least broken HDP's monopoly of a leftist agenda in Turkey. The primary reason for which the Turkish left is currently found in such an infantile and weak state is that any talk about "socialism" or secularism is immediately hijacked by the revisionist, tribalist and frequently self-contradictory message of HDP populists. The fact that TCP is in fact one of the few remaining Communist Parties, whose manifestos, regardless of anyone's views towards Marxism, is at least founded upon some coherent ideas about economy, labour and society, means that the prospect of the Turkish left evolving from HDP's identity and reactionary politics towards something more scientific and mature is not completely unfeasible.

[PointOfViewGun]

It's not a crushing defeat for Erdoğan, but, as already mentioned, it is still a small positive step towards gradually undermining the kleptocratic mechanism of AKP. Its prestige is damaged and many precious opportunities of embezzling public money through shady contracting and corrupted management have just been lost. Meanwile, Maçoğlu's victory in Tunceli is also good news. The province is quite small, population-wise, but his success has at least broken HDP's monopoly of a leftist agenda in Turkey. The primary reason for which the Turkish left is currently found in such an infantile and weak state is that any talk about "socialism" or secularism is immediately hijacked by the revisionist, tribalist and frequently self-contradictory message of HDP populists. The fact that TCP is in fact one of the few remaining Communist Parties, whose manifestos, regardless of anyone's views towards Marxism, is at least founded upon some coherent ideas about economy, labour and society, means that the prospect of the Turkish left evolving from HDP's identity and reactionary politics towards something more scientific and mature is not completely unfeasible.

Losing Istanbul really is a crushing defeat, both psychologically and financially. It is where Erdoğan started his career. He was the mayor of Istanbul between 94 and 98. Istanbul represent entirety of Turkey. For the past decades any party that won Istanbul also won Turkey. It is a tremendous loss for them. The opposition didn't just won Ankara but also Istanbul together in one election. Istanbul is also a city with a lot of population from other cities. If Imamoglu manages to create success in Istanbul than it will affect the entirety of Turkey as all those people passing through Istanbul will bring around the stories of change. Financially, its the major source of income for them. No other city comes even close. So, losing Istanbul can very well be a headshot if not well handled. In worst case, it is a shot on the knee that requires amputation.

[alhoon]

Why is Constantinople so important financially? Sure, it controls the Dardanelles but I would expect the various big cities on the Coast, especially those on South-Western Turkey that see towards the Middle East to be (in total) more important than one megacity.

[PointOfViewGun]

Why is Constantinople so important financially? Sure, it controls the Dardanelles but I would expect the various big cities on the Coast, especially those on South-Western Turkey that see towards the Middle East to be (in total) more important than one megacity.

Constantinople has no financial value. Sure, it has a lot of historical, hence touristic, value, but it's a tiny portion of Istanbul making up only the Golden Horn area.

[Love Mountain]

It's Istanbul alhoon. Nice slip.

[Abdülmecid I]

South-western Turkey faces the Dodecanese, not the Middle East. Anyway, even in what concerns the south-east, geopolitics are not relevant at all to purely domestic issues, like the party conflict in municipal, parliamentary and presidential elections. What matters is not the control of the Dardanelles or the Atatürk dam in Euphrates, but the number and wealth of a city's citizens. Istanbul is amazingly richer and more densely populated than eastern Anatolia, which is basically the poorest and most isolated region of the Republic. Moreover, the defeat of the AKP candidate will also undermine the extravagant infrastructure projects the government planned, like the Istanbul channel and the Sultan Selim bridge. So, I understand Setekh's arguments, but I am still skeptical at how successfully İmamoğlu and generally the opposition will manage to handle their new responsibilities.

[PointOfViewGun]

South-western Turkey faces the Dodecanese, not the Middle East. Anyway, even in what concerns the south-east, geopolitics are not relevant at all to purely domestic issues, like the party conflict in municipal, parliamentary and presidential elections. What matters is not the control of the Dardanelles or the Atatürk dam in Euphrates, but the number and wealth of a city's citizens. Istanbul is amazingly richer and more densely populated than eastern Anatolia, which is basically the poorest and most isolated province of Turkish Republic. Moreover, the defeat of the AKP candidate will undermine the extravagant infrastructure projects the government planned, like the Istanbul channel and the Sultan Selim bridge. So, I understand Setekh's arguments, but I am still skeptical at how successfully İmamoğlu and generally the opposition will manage to handle their new responsibilities.

Yavuz Sultan bridge, the third bridge on the Bosporus, is already built. The new airport is already built as well. The new channel project is an extremely idiotic project that even the government have been back paddling over. There was no real mega project this time. Opposition managed to keep the topics at a much more realistic level with emphasis on parks, transportation projects and fees, employment, etc. Perhaps the largest projects are subway oriented. I doubt AKP can withhold much from investing in infrastructure of Istanbul. For years they talked about how the central government was investing in Istanbul. If they stop know they'll give the impression that the lack of projects is due to AKP withholding funds. That will also make future voters to get disinterested in an AKP government. Istanbul alone accounts for about 20% of the votes in Turkey. Changes there can change a presidency. So, AKP needs to choose between allowing Imamoglu to appear as a successful mayor or to hurt him in the expense of hurting themselves. Imamoglu, on the other hand, is a candidate like no other. He won his district, Beylikduzu, from AKP in 2014. Because of his success there, apart from winning Istanbul, he also won with over 50% in Esenyurt which is the adjacent district to Beylikduzu with a quite conservative AKP base. He appears to be very well prepared and very well mannered. Even CHP voters are quite impressed by him and expect him to head CHP after a term or two.

[alhoon]

Constantinople has no financial value. Sure, it has a lot of historical, hence touristic, value, but it's a tiny portion of Istanbul making up only the Golden Horn area.

What? Well, we call the whole thing as Constantinople, even the parts that over the Dardanelles to what was (I think) Nicaea. Instanbul then. Why is it so important financially? More than the large cities of the Mediterranean cost that see Egypt, Syria etc? I.e. where the oil pipes end up at?

South-western Turkey faces the Dodecanese, not the Middle East. Anyway, even in what concerns the south-east, geopolitics are not relevant at all to purely domestic issues, like the party conflict in municipal, parliamentary and presidential elections. What matters is not the control of the Dardanelles or the Atatürk dam in Euphrates, but the number and wealth of a city's citizens. Istanbul is amazingly richer and more densely populated than eastern Anatolia, which is basically the poorest and most isolated region of the Republic. Moreover, the defeat of the AKP candidate will also undermine the extravagant infrastructure projects the government planned, like the Istanbul channel and the Sultan Selim bridge. So, I understand Setekh's arguments, but I am still skeptical at how successfully İmamoğlu and generally the opposition will manage to handle their new responsibilities.

No, I mean the parts that were Halicarnassus to Cilicia. Look, I don't want to start dropping names of settlements from Attila Total War or Rome 2 Total War but you should know what I mean. I don't know how those places are called.
Turkey has Antioch next to Syria for the oil pipes and ports and I see in the map some cities called Antalya, Mersin etc that seem to me to be important coast cities for tankers to go to. Add in Smyrna and Halicarnasus for trade with the EU and those five alone should have more "rich people" and projects and ports than Constantinople.
Also, the Euphrates should be a very rich place. It is a very big and important river.

The new channel project is an extremely idiotic project that even the government have been back paddling over.

Is that by chance the suggested new channel to give easier access to the Black Sea?
I have a friend that works in a refinery in Corinthos, well educated and all which I trust, and he tells me that there is a very long waiting time to cross the Dardaneles and that such a project would be very very welcome as it would allow the big ships to go through faster with oil from the Black Sea.

Making a channel that would improve Trade with Northern Asia and Russia is IMO very important and not idiotic.
As I said, I have no love for Erdogan at all, but many of those "idiotic" projects you talk about seem very sensible to me.

[PointOfViewGun]

What? Well, we call the whole thing as Constantinople, even the parts that over the Dardanelles to what was (I think) Nicaea. Instanbul then. Why is it so important financially? More than the large cities of the Mediterranean cost that see Egypt, Syria etc? I.e. where the oil pipes end up at?

Dardanelles is part of Çanakkale province while Nicaea is part of the Bursa province. The are you speak of is made of multiple provinces and various major cities, including Istanbul. Constantinople, on the other hand, is merely a historic city that doesn't go beyond 1/100th of the area that Istanbul occupies.

Modern city importance is not dependent on oil pipes or trade. What's important is where company HQs are, where the population is, where consumption occurs. Istanbul is a city of about 20 million people. It's where most major companies have their operations run from. It's where the new Amazon HQ for Turkish operation is located.

Is that by chance the suggested new channel to give easier access to the Black Sea?
I have a friend that works in a refinery in Corinthos, well educated and all which I trust, and he tells me that there is a very long waiting time to cross the Dardaneles and that such a project would be very very welcome as it would allow the big ships to go through faster with oil from the Black Sea.

Making a channel that would improve Trade with Northern Asia and Russia is IMO very important and not idiotic.
As I said, I have no love for Erdogan at all, but many of those "idiotic" projects you talk about seem very sensible to me.

It would be extremely idiotic. Most importantly, the channel would completely kill the ecosystem and disrupt sea currents. That could very well render Bosphorus a stinking river. For that fact alone it would be an idiotic project. The project itself is would be so costly that the benefits from it would be of no value. It's not like there are dozens of countries on each side. It's just Russia.