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Thread: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

  1. #1001
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    I'm not talking about a single snowy day as you infer.
    Then you admit that posting about snowyday or two here is pointless. Thank you. You can spare us next time of such post like the one I was referring to.

    I asked if you had been drinking because I had to read your comment twice to try and find something coherent in it.
    Similar problems with your math/scintific/statistical/logical stuff.

    I've pointed out fallacies in the AGW predictions and all you can do is say they are irrelevant; that your "science is perfect".

    Well, it isn't and I've proved it. Instead of admitting that mistakes were made in the projections you brush them aside as unimportant.

    When you're talking about subverting the standard of living for all but the wealthiest of Earth's citizens, I expect perfection and clearly you don't have it. All you really have is failed predictions and a mass of manipulated data.
    With every decade we have newer data, newer better technology like sensors and pc and better models. So naturally predictions are going to be better and better. Predictions from 60 or 70 or 80 are long gone. I just don´t see reason to stick with old prediction when newer are around. The scientists at any given time will do the best they could, they are not evil just because things went little different. Actually we might be glad for that. But that is exactly reason for caring about global warming. If it doesn´t happen, good but what if it does? That would be super problem and that is what you are failing to adress. It is like any safety measures. You hope that you don´t need them, still you put them in if you can..

    You just keep screaming that any data is manipulating. By your altitude any work with data is manipulation. But actually putting emails out of context is the best you can do...

    Um. Not sure what were you smoking or drinking but I´m prety sure I said nothing about standard of living...
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Then you admit that posting about snowyday or two here is pointless. Thank you. You can spare us next time of such post like the one I was referring to.


    Similar problems with your math/scintific/statistical/logical stuff.



    With every decade we have newer data, newer better technology like sensors and pc and better models. So naturally predictions are going to be better and better. Predictions from 60 or 70 or 80 are long gone. I just don´t see reason to stick with old prediction when newer are around. The scientists at any given time will do the best they could, they are not evil just because things went little different. Actually we might be glad for that. But that is exactly reason for caring about global warming. If it doesn´t happen, good but what if it does? That would be super problem and that is what you are failing to adress. It is like any safety measures. You hope that you don´t need them, still you put them in if you can..

    You just keep screaming that any data is manipulating. By your altitude any work with data is manipulation. But actually putting emails out of context is the best you can do...

    Um. Not sure what were you smoking or drinking but I´m prety sure I said nothing about standard of living...
    Point 1.: A summer solstice snowstorm 2 years in a row is exactly what the models predicted would not happen. Thus the signs had to be taken down to eliminate any further embarrassment of the park officials who bought into this hoax.

    Point 2.: I haven't manipulated any data to fit my premise. Just stated the facts.

    Point 3.: All the models have been proven to be wrong.

    Point 4.: Making a prediction based on fraudulent data and then saying "what if you don't do something because it might be right" is in itself illogical.

    Point 5.: It is one thing to say that there are discrepancies in the data collection and we have to try and find a way to make sense of it and another thing altogether to say there are discrepancies in the data and we have to try and find a way to make it fit our projected outcome; Climate Gate, for example.

    Point 6.: Discovering that the models and projections have been proven to be inaccurate would ordinarily cause a worthy scientist to rework the whole theory, but instead you guys simply ignore it and go on fiddling with the data to make it export the desired outcome.

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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Point 4.: Making a prediction based on fraudulent data and then saying "what if you don't do something because it might be right" is in itself illogical.
    Repeating a lie very often does not turn it into truth. Aside from posting political blog links, you are not able to demonstrate it. I took the effort several times to counter the claim and the demonstration from your sources, you just ignored it. In the end it is simply a belief that you experience.

    The thing is: the huge majority of scientists doesn't share the same belief than you.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
    https://skepticalscience.com/joint-s...und-world.html

    Point 3.: All the models have been proven to be wrong.
    Actually they have been correct concerning the increase in global temperature:
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...global-warming

    But indeed they have underestimated sea level rise:
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/explaine...sea-level-rise
    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...sea-level-rise

    Point 1.: A summer solstice snowstorm 2 years in a row is exactly what the models predicted would not happen. Thus the signs had to be taken down to eliminate any further embarrassment of the park officials who bought into this hoax.
    The thing is, you have made very simple mathematical mistake in this thread, you had difficulties to understand the concept of temperature anomaly and you believe that any single cold event is a disproof of global warming.

    The issue is not the model but your own inability to understand the topic even from a basic perspective. You are arguing against a strawman, not against what the scientists are saying. This is why you are unable to back up the claims you are attributing to the IPCC models or any other models made by institutions studying climate change.

    Point 6.: Discovering that the models and projections have been proven to be inaccurate would ordinarily cause a worthy scientist to rework the whole theory, but instead you guys simply ignore it and go on fiddling with the data to make it export the desired outcome.
    As I already said in the past, the models and projections are only a part of the evidences supporting the theory.

    We can observe the increasing greenhouse effect from the ground:
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2009JD011800
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2003GL018765

    We can observe it from satellite:
    https://www.researchgate.net/publica..._1970_and_1997

    We can observe the role of CO2 as the trigger of this greenhouse effect rise:
    https://phys.org/news/2015-02-carbon...se-effect.html

    There are multiples evidences from a physical perspective:
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  4. #1004
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    I saw most of those years ago. The universities and people involved in the cover up were out in full force to protect their monetary baby. It reminds me of the early 1990s when Egyptologists were outraged that a geologist would re-date the construction of the Sphinx. Everyone of them had their reputation and livelihood at stake.

    The fact remains that there is nothing fake or untrue in the video I posted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    You mean the dating of the Sphinx around 7000 BC?
    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    At least that early, but probably much older. It is a good example of how dogma and a lot of money can control the narrative. The debate on the age of the Sphinx still rages, as does this thread, regardless of how much data manipulation has taken place to support the AGW theory.
    About the small debate we had about the dating of the Sphinx and its relation to past climate changes at the page 47, I found a video of an archaeologist talking about the topic. In case you are interested:
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    About the small debate we had about the dating of the Sphinx and its relation to past climate changes at the page 47, I found a video of an archaeologist talking about the topic. In case you are interested:
    Just incredible! But the fact that you posted this as proof is a good example of how easily you consume deceptive material. I've seen Milo before. He's an academic wank.

    If you watch the video with curiosity you might notice that he says he shows Schoch twice, but he doesn't and to make matters worse Schoch is not standing where he says he is standing in the video.

    Milo tries to enhance his deception by claiming Schoch is wrong because rainfall was 3 times greater at the site 4,000 years ago. Three times mind you! Did you get that? Three times, I say! This was determined by ground core samples taken in Chad. Wow! Ground core samples taken in Chad can determine rainfall amounts at Giza 4,000 years ago!

    What he doesn't say is that the average rainfall at Giza is less than an inch per year, sometimes much less than an inch. So, even with three inches of rain a year it would be impossible to erode that many feet of limestone in that framework of time. The erosion rate of various types of limestone is known.

    I could go on, but it is off subject. I'll take a look at your other post later if I get time, but I've already warned you about posting a wall of links. I know you guys don't like staying with a singular issue because you can be boxed in. It's obviously the reason you haven't given a reasonable explanation for the summer solstice snowstorms that ruined AGW predictions. The best thing to do when your wrong is say I was wrong. I did it, so you can too. Go ahead, give it a try. You can do it and when you do you'll be a better scientist. Quit trying to believe you're infallible.

  6. #1006
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    I know you guys don't like staying with a singular issue because you can be boxed in. It's obviously the reason you haven't given a reasonable explanation for the summer solstice snowstorms that ruined AGW predictions.
    But so far you failed to explain how even two summer solstices snowstorms are contradicting Global Warming....So snowstorms in winter are okay? Like what about snowstorms in winter...in middle of Sahara maybe? that´s also okay? But summer solstices snowstorms on Artcita are also bad? Or just Idaho/Montana are special place on Earth? Go on, I would love to hear that...

    Or maybe show us any prediction saying there will be never ever ANY more snowstorms in Idaho/Montana...
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    But so far you failed to explain how even two summer solstices snowstorms are contradicting Global Warming....So snowstorms in winter are okay? Like what about snowstorms in winter...in middle of Sahara maybe? that´s also okay? But summer solstices snowstorms on Artcita are also bad? Or just Idaho/Montana are special place on Earth? Go on, I would love to hear that...

    Or maybe show us any prediction saying there will be never ever ANY more snowstorms in Idaho/Montana...
    You're dodging the subject again. There was high confidence that the glaciers would be gone by 2020. That was the prediction and it was so high that park officials put up signs in 2009 saying the glaciers would be gone by 2020. They took the signs down after last year's summer snowstorm. At least they had the sense to take the signs down last year, instead of waiting for the big meltdown that wasn't to come.

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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    It's obviously the reason you haven't given a reasonable explanation for the summer solstice snowstorms that ruined AGW predictions.
    I don't see how I could give an explanation to your argument that it proves it ruined AGW predictions since there is no support to your claim. As I said, you believe it should not be coherent and you haven't provided any support. As I also said, you are lacking basic understanding of the topic and you are clearly making up this starting point of your reasoning.

    Any scientific reference on the topic will give you a different picture than your claim about what we are expecting about snowfall with the ongoing climate change:
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...12096317301754
    https://www.climatecentral.org/news/...-shifting-snow

    I've seen Milo before. He's an academic wank.
    From someone saying he has a background in data analyses while failing to understand basic math, I find this comment ironic.

    Seriously, you are considering this guy as a wank: https://www.stefanmilo.com/

    And this guy as a legit expert? https://www.robertschoch.com
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    You're dodging the subject again. There was high confidence that the glaciers would be gone by 2020. That was the prediction and it was so high that park officials put up signs in 2009 saying the glaciers would be gone by 2020. They took the signs down after last year's summer snowstorm. At least they had the sense to take the signs down last year, instead of waiting for the big meltdown that wasn't to come.
    Aaaaaaaaand? Just because prediction were not met, Glowal Warming does not exist? Just because two seasons with snowstorms during solstices?

    https://www.nps.gov/glac/learn/natur...g-glaciers.htm
    Compare state before century and now....

    https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...national-park/
    Another sign that used to have the 2020 date now reads, “Some glaciers melt faster than others, but one thing is consistent: the glaciers in the park are shrinking.”

    Why were the predictions revised?

    The original estimates of the timing of glacier melt were based on two things: modeled projections of the glaciers’ response to warming, and direct observations of glacial retreat. A 2003 report was based on modeling a scenario of doubling pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels by 2030, which would have melted the park’s major glaciers – and presumably the minor ones, too – by 2030.

    After publication of that report, field observations showed glacier melt to be years ahead of the projections, causing scientists in 2010 to revise their “end date” to 2020.

    This 2020 date was then put on signs in the park, educating visitors about the observations of rapid ice loss resulting from global warming.
    Yes, they are thawing slower. But they are thawing...so sooner or later they will be gone unless current trend is changed. If there are some colder seasons with growth, it will just delay the thawing. You are B.W. focusing on single point which you try to defend because you cannot do so with anything else...admit it.
    Last edited by Daruwind; June 21, 2020 at 03:25 PM.
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    I don't see how I could give an explanation to your argument that it proves it ruined AGW predictions since there is no support to your claim. As I said, you believe it should not be coherent and you haven't provided any support. As I also said, you are lacking basic understanding of the topic and you are clearly making up this starting point of your reasoning.

    Any scientific reference on the topic will give you a different picture than your claim about what we are expecting about snowfall with the ongoing climate change:
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...12096317301754
    https://www.climatecentral.org/news/...-shifting-snow
    I understand that you cherry picked your data to fit the desired result.


    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    From someone saying he has a background in data analyses while failing to understand basic math, I find this comment ironic.
    I recall one of your teammates here posting a link with 50 charts and challenged me to go through them and determine which where viable. I did and I did it correctly. Don't I get at least a little credit for that? The big difference between you and I is the fact that I can admit making a mistake.

    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    Seriously, you are considering this guy as a wank: https://www.stefanmilo.com/

    And this guy as a legit expert? https://www.robertschoch.com
    I really don't know what Milo is. He doesn't say. I did point out the deceptive nature of his presentation though.

    Schoch on the other hand has a Doctorate in Geophysics. He has also written a number of books on geophysics and archaeology.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Aaaaaaaaand? Just because prediction were not met, Glowal Warming does not exist? Just because two seasons with snowstorms during solstices?

    https://www.nps.gov/glac/learn/natur...g-glaciers.htm
    Compare state before century and now....

    https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...national-park/


    Yes, they are thawing slower. But they are thawing...so sooner or later they will be gone unless current trend is changed. If there are some colder seasons with growth, it will just delay the thawing. You are B.W. focusing on single point which you try to defend because you cannot do so with anything else...admit it.
    Oh wait, I'm not claiming that global warming can't exist. I'm saying it isn't the issue you guys are saying it is. Your entire argument is based on the notion that CO2 increase precedes warming trends and it therefore must be the cause of the manipulated temperature trends.

    The data on the glaciers, as far as I know, only goes back to about 1850. That was a time when they were still close to the maximum extent they reached in the mini-ice age in the 1700s. Nevertheless, the signs based on the predictions have come down in spite of what the so-called "fact checkers" claim. The extent of the Glaciers before the mini ice age, as far as I know, hasn't been determined.

    The problem with you guys is that you are afraid to admit you made a mistake. Even Einstein made mistakes. He made a really big one, but Hubble fixed it for him. And you guys ain't no Einsteins'.

    The thing to do is go back and see where you made your mistake, not cover it up with a new report that says "there's more snow, but we still reached the same conclusion".

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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    The problem with you guys is that you are afraid to admit you made a mistake. Even Einstein made mistakes. He made a really big one, but Hubble fixed it for him. And you guys ain't no Einsteins'.

    The thing to do is go back and see where you made your mistake, not cover it up with a new report that says "there's more snow, but we still reached the same conclusion".
    Um. Nope. At least I have no problem with saying that the original model for glacier thawing was not perfect. Glaciers are there. But that is same with almost all models around. In next 20 years many will be improved, updated not because somebody had malicious intentions but because knowledge,wisdom,udnertanding of problem will be better.

    But you are putting outdated model into equation with altered data and thus discarting whole Global Warming. 1) Mistakes are happening, because people learn this way and simply human factor means mistakes 2) all data has to be processed and that is normal in any data processing 3) you keep attacking means thus negating where facts and models are pointing but you should discuss actual destination. +3 degree in long run are probably a lot troubles for humanity ;-) we should prevent that...or prepare. But preparation or prevention is simply out of usual politics of certain people..thus attacking whole thing. This is why politics should be kept out of scientific discussion..
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Let´s change focus onto Alpine glaciers
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16818-0

    Why? Because it is new study. We can easily see trend and if it continue, how much ice will remain by 2050/2100 +/-. So no, no claims "gone by 2020" but still the trend is quite worrying..

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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Um. Nope. At least I have no problem with saying that the original model for glacier thawing was not perfect. Glaciers are there. But that is same with almost all models around. In next 20 years many will be improved, updated not because somebody had malicious intentions but because knowledge,wisdom,udnertanding of problem will be better.

    But you are putting outdated model into equation with altered data and thus discarting whole Global Warming. 1) Mistakes are happening, because people learn this way and simply human factor means mistakes 2) all data has to be processed and that is normal in any data processing 3) you keep attacking means thus negating where facts and models are pointing but you should discuss actual destination. +3 degree in long run are probably a lot troubles for humanity ;-) we should prevent that...or prepare. But preparation or prevention is simply out of usual politics of certain people..thus attacking whole thing. This is why politics should be kept out of scientific discussion..
    Unfortunately politics are at the heart of the AGW hoax. China, which was basically given a pass in the Paris Climate Heist produces 90% of the plastic that pollutes the oceans. It all comes from Chinese rivers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Let´s change focus onto Alpine glaciers
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16818-0

    Why? Because it is new study. We can easily see trend and if it continue, how much ice will remain by 2050/2100 +/-. So no, no claims "gone by 2020" but still the trend is quite worrying..

    I've spent some time going over one of the "reports" cited by Genava and it seems, at least as reported, that there is both snowfall increase and snowfall decrease. So, inconclusive. The reading was difficult because I have cataracts and the fine print of those "charts" was extremely hard reading. I know I can blow up the print, but going back and forth is distracting.

    With that said, I think the AGW crowd is so focused on their particular issue that they are simply ignoring everything else. Personally, I think the sun and the ocean currents are the primary diviners of global climate. In that regard, the temperature of the global ocean currents would be extremely important.

    Note here, that all the summer snow is going to melt late summer resulting in river flooding and cooler water reaching the gulf. If this occurs continuously for several years then the result will be a cooler climate for Europe.

    As an example, in 1548 the Chinese built a gigantic levee on the Yangtze River, which increased current flow resulting in cooler water flowing into the western Pacific where most of the earth's climate originates. This was two years prior to the beginning of the mini-ice-age that lasted from about 1550 to 1850. Of course I'm not saying that it caused the ice age. What I am saying that there are many factors that contribute to the intensity of seasonal climates.

    You can make of this map whatever you like, but note the increased snowfall in the higher latitudes:

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring...r/snow1804.gif
    Last edited by B. W.; June 25, 2020 at 06:52 PM.

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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    The reading was difficult because I have cataracts and the fine print of those "charts" was extremely hard reading. I know I can blow up the print, but going back and forth is distracting.
    Sorry for your cataracts. I hope you will be able to schedule an operation and to treat it.

    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    I've spent some time going over one of the "reports" cited by Genava and it seems, at least as reported, that there is both snowfall increase and snowfall decrease. So, inconclusive.
    That's something I have already said in this thread, the increase in the air temperature brings also more humidity. What the models and the climate scientists are saying is that there will be a decrease in the snow cover and in the length of the snow season in average. But increasing air temperature doesn't mean that the condition for snowfall will decrease strongly enough to make it a rare event.

    There will be snow in the mountains whatever the path we choose in our global emissions and which increase in the temperature we reach. Because the topography is locally a very very strong driver of weather events. So if the condition for snowfall will remains something usual in winter in higher altitudes, any increase in the humidity transported by the air can potentially results in very intense snowfall.

    This is why there is this paradox where snow can both decrease and increase at different location.

    And the IPCC has been clear on this matter, they always reached a careful position:

    Quote Originally Posted by IPCC AR1 WG2 CH7 (1990)
    Seasonal snow cover, ice and permafrost will be significantly affected by the suggested GHG-induced climatic changes. The projected climate warming and changes in precipitation will, in general, decrease the global areal extent and masses of the seasonal snow cover, ice and permafrost. For most locations which currently experience a seasonal snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, the projected climate changes suggest a decreased duration of snow cover and increased length of the frost-free season and, in some cases, a complete withdrawal of snow.
    [...]
    Computer-generated climate scenarios provide some indications of possible impacts of GHG-induced climate changes on seasonal snow cover at a continental scale (Schlesinger, 1986). When interpreting these results it should be noted that current versions of these models have rudimentary simulations of the exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere including the impact of sea ice and, because of their spatial resolution, limited representation of potential regional impacts and elevation differences. As would be expected under the influence of global warming, the simulations indicate that the area covered by snow will decrease in both the southern and northern hemispheres. In terms of the mass of snow, however, the responses are less uniform. In general, within the Northern Hemisphere, a decrease in the mass of snow is indicated, whereas an in-crease occurs within the Southern Hemisphere. These changes in mass, however, are not uniform but, to some degree, depend on latitude, elevation and season. Throughout the year, snow mass north of 30°N latitude and north of 68°S latitude is expected to decrease in response to climatic changes, while snow mass is expected to increase over Antarctica, south of 68°S latitude.
    Quote Originally Posted by IPCC AR5 WG1 CH4 (2013)
    Long-duration, consistent records of snow are rare owing to many challenges in making accurate and representative measurements. Although weather stations in snowy inhabited areas often report snow depth, records of snowfall are often patchy or use techniques that change over time (e.g., Kunkel et al., 2007). The density of stations and the choice of metric also varies considerably from country to country. The longest satellite-based record of SCE is the visible-wavelength weekly product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) dating to 1966 (Robinson et al., 1993), but this covers only the NH. Satellite mapping of snow depth and SWE has lower accuracy than SCE, especially in mountainous and heavily forested areas. Measurement challenges are particularly acute in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), where only about 11 long-duration in situ records continue to recent times: seven in the central Andes and four in southeast Australia. Owing to concerns about quality and duration, global satellite microwave retrievals of SWE are of less use in the data-rich NH than in the data-poor SH.

    By blending in situ and satellite records, Brown and Robinson (2011) have updated a key indicator of climate change, namely the time series of NH SCE (Figure 4.19). This time series shows significant reductions over the past 90 years with most of the reductions occurring in the 1980s, and is an improvement over that presented in AR4 in several ways, not least because the uncertainty estimates are explicitly derived through the statistical analysis of multiple data sets, which leads to very high confidence. Snow cover decreases are largest in spring (Table 4.7), and the rate of decrease increases with latitude in response to larger albedo feedbacks (Déry and Brown, 2007). Averaged March and April NH SCE decreased 0.8% [0.5 to 1.1%] per decade over the 1922–2012 period, 1.6% [0.8 to 2.4%] per decade over the 1967–2012 period, and 2.2% [1.1 to 3.4%] per decade over the 1979–2012 period. In a new development since AR4, both absolute and relative losses in June SCE now exceed the losses in March–April SCE: 11.7% [8.8 to 14.6% per decade or 53% [40 to 66%] total over the 1967–2012 period and 14.8% [10.3 to 19.3%] per decade over the 1979–2012 period (all ranges very likely). Note that these percentages differ from those given by Brown and Robinson (2011) which were calculated relative to the mean over the 1979–2000 period, rather than relative to the start-ing point. The loss rate of June SCE exceeds the loss rate for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections of June SCE and also exceeds the well-known loss of September sea ice extent (Derksen and Brown, 2012). Viewed another way, the NOAA SCE data indicate that, owing to earlier spring snowmelt, the duration of the snow season averaged over NH grid points declined by 5.3 days per decade since winter 1972–1973 (Choi et al., 2010).

    Over Eurasia, in situ data show significant increases in winter snow accumulation but a shorter snowmelt season (Bulygina et al., 2009). From analysis of passive microwave satellite data since 1979, signif-icant trends toward a shortening of the snowmelt season have been identified over much of Eurasia (Takala et al., 2009) and the pan-Arctic region (Tedesco et al., 2009), with a trend toward earlier melt of about 5 days per decade for the beginning of the melt season, and a trend of about 10 days per decade later for the end of the melt season.
    [...]
    AR4 stimulated a review paper (Brown and Mote, 2009) that synthesized modelling results as well as observations from many countries. They showed that decreases in various metrics of snow are most likely to be observed in spring and at locations where air temperatures are close to the freezing point, because changes in air temperature there are most effective at reducing snow accumulation, increasing snowmelt, or both. However, unraveling the competing effects of rising temperatures and changing precipitation remains an important challenge in understanding and interpreting observed changes.
    You said before:

    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    I understand that you cherry picked your data to fit the desired result.
    So now you see I wasn't cherry-picking anything and your opinion was based on a fallacious vision of what is said in climate science.

    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    With that said, I think the AGW crowd is so focused on their particular issue that they are simply ignoring everything else.
    Again that's a fallacious vision of what climate scientists are doing. See following.

    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    Personally, I think the sun and the ocean currents are the primary diviners of global climate.
    I already gave you these links from the NASA about the Sun's role on the climate:
    https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2949/w...rrent-warming/
    https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/w...limate-change/

    I already gave you this figure comparing solar irradiance and global temperature:


    And I already gave you this figure in which you can see the decrease in solar irradiance in the Arctic (which suggest a cooling period in the Milankovitch theory):


    So clearly on this topic, everything suggests the Sun is not the driving force of the current warming.

    The very topic of the Sun's role in the current warming is a very long debate that reached a conclusion decades ago, there is little evidence for a major role of the Sun in the current warming and there is evidence suggesting the contrary.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer R. Weart
    A stronger claim to explain climate came from the seemingly most unworldly of sciences, astronomy. It began with a leading eighteenth-century astronomer, William Herschel. He noted that some stars varied in brightness, and that our Sun is itself a star.Might the Sun vary its brightness, bringing cooler or warmer periods on Earth? Speculation increased in the mid-nineteenth century,following the discovery that the number of spots seen on the Sunrises and falls in a regular eleven-year cycle. It appeared that the sunspots reflected some kind of storminess on the Sun’s surface—violent activity that had measurable effects on the Earth’s magnetic field. Perhaps sunspots connected somehow with weather—with droughts, for example? That would raise or lower the price of grain,so some people searched for connections with the stock market.The study of sunspots might give hints about longer-term climate shifts too.Most persistent was Charles Greeley Abbot of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory. The observatory already had a program of measuring the intensity of the Sun’s radiation received at the Earth, called the “solar constant.” Abbot pursued the program single-mindedly, and by the early 1920s he had concluded that the solar constant was misnamed. His observations showed large variations over periods of days, which he connected with sunspots passing across the face of the Sun. Over a term of years the more active Sun seemed brighter by nearly 1 percent. As early as 1913 Abbot had announced that he could see a plain correlation between the sunspot cycle and cycles of temperature on Earth. Self-confident and combative, Abbot defended his findings against all objections,meanwhile telling the public that solar studies would bring wonderful improvements in weather prediction. Other scientists were quietly skeptical, for the variations Abbot reported teetered at the very edge of detectability.The study of cycles was generally popular through the first half of the twentieth century. Governments had collected a lot of weather data to play with, and inevitably people found correlations between sunspot cycles and selected weather patterns. If rainfall in England didn’t fit the cycle, maybe storminess in New England would. Respected scientists and enthusiastic amateurs insisted they had found patterns reliable enough to make predictions.Sooner or later, though, every prediction failed. An example was a highly credible forecast of a dry spell in Africa during the sunspot minimum of the early 1930s. When the period turned out wet, a meteorologist later recalled, “the subject of sunspots and weather relationships fell into disrepute, especially among British meteorologists who witnessed the discomfiture of some of their most respected superiors.” Even in the 1960s, he said, “for a young[climate] researcher to entertain any statement of sun-weather relationships was to brand oneself a crank.”[...]
    The variations of sunspots and cosmic rays were negligible compared with the Sun’s total output of energy. How could such trivial variations possibly have a noticeable effect on climate?In 1975 the respected meteorologist Robert Dickinson took on the task of reviewing the American Meteorological Society’s official statement about solar influences on weather. He concluded that such influences were unlikely, for there was no reasonable mechanism in sight—except, maybe, one. Perhaps the electrical charges that cosmic rays brought into the atmosphere somehow affected the way cloud droplets condensed on dust particles? Dickinson hastened to point out that this was pure speculation[...]A 1994 National Academy of Sciences panel estimated that if solar radiation was now to weaken as much as it had in the Little Ice Age of the seventeenth century,the effect would be offset by only two decades of accumulation of greenhouse gases. As one expert explained, the Little Ice Age “was a mere ‘blip’ compared with expected future climatic change.”
    Quote Originally Posted by 1994. Detecting Climatic Change Signals: Are There Any "Fingerprints"? Published in Science
    Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes, as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus, validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving "fingerprint" of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving, combined, multiple, and heterogeneous forcing factors, the best global climatic change "fingerprint" will probably remain a many-decades average of hemi-spheric- to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5°C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years—perhaps only once or twice a millennium, as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5 ± 0.2°C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation.
    Quote Originally Posted by 1995. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Published in Geophysical Research Letters
    Solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiances are reconstructed annually from 1610 to the present. This epoch includes the Maunder Minimum of anomalously low solar activity (circa 1645–1715) and the subsequent increase to the high levels of the present Modern Maximum. In this reconstruction, the Schwabe (11‐year) irradiance cycle and a longer term variability component are determined separately, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre‐industrial period from 1610 to 1800, implying a predominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970.
    Quote Originally Posted by 1997. Dependence of global temperatures on atmospheric CO2 and solar irradiance.*Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Changes in global average temperatures and of the seasonal cycle are strongly coupled to the concentration of atmospheric CO2. I estimate transfer functions from changes in atmospheric CO2 and from changes in solar irradiance to hemispheric temperatures that have been corrected for the effects of precession. They show that changes from CO2 over the last century are about three times larger than those from changes in solar irradiance. The increase in global average temperature during the last century is at least 20 times the SD of the residual temperature series left when the effects of CO2 and changes in solar irradiance are subtracted.[...]Consider the null hypothesis that the observed temperature fluctuations and atmospheric CO2 levels are independent: The probability that the hemispheric temperatures would fluctuate purely by chance in such a way to produce the observed coherences with CO2 is exceedingly low. Given that the records encompass more than a century, the probability is so low that one would not expect to see such an event by chance during the age of the earth.
    Quote Originally Posted by 2003. Can solar variability explain global warming since 1970?.*Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
    The magnitude of the Sun's influence on climate has been a subject of intense debate. Estimates of this magnitude are generally based on assumptions regarding the forcing due to solar irradiance variations and climate modeling. This approach suffers from uncertainties that are difficult to estimate. Such uncertainties are introduced because the employed models may not include important but complex processes or mechanisms or may treat these in too simplified a manner. Here we take a more empirical approach. We employ time series of the most relevant solar quantities, the total and UV irradiance between 1856 and 1999 and the cosmic rays flux between 1868 and 1999. The time series are constructed using direct measurements wherever possible and reconstructions based on models and proxies at earlier times. These time series are compared with the climate record for the period 1856 to 1970. The solar records are scaled such that statistically the solar contribution to climate is as large as possible in this period. Under this assumption we repeat the comparison but now including the period 1970–1999. This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) cannot have been dominant. In particular, the Sun cannot have contributed more than 30% to the steep temperature increase that has taken place since then, irrespective of which of the three considered channels is the dominant one determining Sun‐climate interactions: tropospheric heating caused by changes in total solar irradiance, stratospheric chemistry influenced by changes in the solar UV spectrum, or cloud coverage affected by the cosmic ray flux.
    Quote Originally Posted by 2004. Solar variability and global warming: a statistical comparison since 1850. Published in Advances in Space Research
    The magnitude of the Sun's influence on climate has been a subject of intense debate. Estimates of this magnitude are generally based on assumptions regarding the forcing due to solar irradiance variations entering climate modelling. Given the complexity of the climate system, however, such modelling is perforce based on simplifying assumptions, which leaves it open to criticism. We take a complementary approach. We assume that the Sun has been responsible for climate change prior to 1970 and that their interrelation remained unchanged afterwards. Then, employing reconstructions and measured records of relevant solar quantities as well as of the cosmic-ray flux, we estimate statistically which fraction of the dramatic temperature rise after that date could be due to the influence of the Sun. We show that at least in the most recent past (since about 1970) the solar influence on climate cannot have been significant.
    Quote Originally Posted by 1995. IPCC AR2 WG1 CH8
    There is little evidence that the observed pattern of stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming is due to either solar variability and/or volcanic effects (Wetherald and Manabe, 1975; Hansen et al, 1978). Model-predicted responses to changes in the solar constant do not show stratospheric cooling, while our best information from observations and relevant model experiments indicates that volcanically injected stratospheric aerosols tend to warm the stratosphere and cool the troposphere - a response that is the inverse of an expected greenhouse gas signal. The vertical structure of atmospheric temperature changes might therefore prove to be a fingerprint that is highly specific to anthropogenic forcing.
    Quote Originally Posted by 2007. IPCC AR4 WG1 CH1
    Measurement of the absolute value of total solar irradiance (TSI) is difficult from the Earth’s surface because of the need to correct for the influence of the atmosphere. Langley (1884) attempted to minimize the atmospheric effects by taking measurements from high on Mt. Whitney in California, and to estimate the correction for atmospheric effects by taking measurements at several times of day, for example, with the solar radiation having passed through different atmospheric path-lengths. Between 1902 and 1957, Charles Abbot and a number of other scientists around the globe made thousands of measurements of TSI from mountain sites. Values ranged from 1,322 to 1,465 W m–2, which encompasses the current estimate of 1,365 W m–2. Foukal et al. (1977) deduced from Abbot’s daily observations that higher values of TSI were associated with more solar faculae (e.g., Abbot, 1910). In 1978, the Nimbus-7 satellite was launched with a cavity radiometer and provided evidence of variations in TSI (Hickey et al., 1980). Additional observations were made with an active cavity radiometer on the Solar Maximum Mission, launched in 1980 (Willson et al., 1980). Both of these missions showed that the passage of sunspots and faculae across the Sun’s disk influenced TSI. At the maximum of the 11-year solar activity cycle, the TSI is larger by about 0.1% than at the minimum. The observation that TSI is highest when sunspots are at their maximum is the opposite of Langley’s (1876) hypothesis.As early as 1910, Abbot believed that he had detected a downward trend in TSI that coincided with a general cooling of climate. The solar cycle variation in irradiance corresponds to an 11-year cycle in radiative forcing which varies by about 0.2 W m–2. There is increasingly reliable evidence of its influence on atmospheric temperatures and circulations, particularly in the higher atmosphere (Reid, 1991; Brasseur, 1993; Balachandran and Rind, 1995; Haigh, 1996; Labitzke and van Loon, 1997; van Loon and Labitzke, 2000). Calculations with three-dimensional models (Wetherald and Manabe, 1975; Cubasch et al., 1997; Lean and Rind, 1998; Tett et al., 1999; Cubasch and Voss, 2000) suggest that the changes in solar radiation could cause surface temperature changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree Celsius.
    Finally on the topic of the ocean, indeed they could contribute easily to the warming because they have a far bigger heat capacity than the atmosphere. But that would mean the oceans are losing some thermal energy in favor of the atmosphere. Actually, we are observing ocean warming as well as atmospheric warming ! So the driver of the actual change is warming both ocean and atmosphere.That's the point of this video between 21 to 27 minutes:


    You can see on data the warming of the ocean:
    https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...n-heat-content

    And the introductory statement of the IPCC:
    Quote Originally Posted by 2007. IPCC AR4 WG1 CH5
    The ocean has an important role in climate variability and change. The ocean’s heat capacity is about 1,000 times larger than that of the atmosphere, and the oceans net heat uptake since 1960 is around 20 times greater than that of the atmosphere (Levitus et al., 2005a). This large amount of heat, which has been mainly stored in the upper layers of the ocean, plays a crucial role in climate change, in particular variations on seasonal to decadal time scales. The transport of heat and freshwater by ocean currents can have an important effect on regional climates, and the large-scale Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC; also referred to as thermohaline circulation) influences the climate on a global scale (e.g., Vellinga and Wood, 2002). Life in the sea is dependent on the biogeochemical status of the ocean and is influenced by changes in the physical state and circulation. Changes in ocean biogeochemistry can directly feed back to the climate system, for example, through changes in the uptake or release of radiatively active gases such as carbon dioxide. Changes in sea level are also important for human society, and are linked to changes in ocean circulation. Finally, oceanic parameters can be useful for detecting climate change, in particular temperature and salinity changes in the deeper layers and in different regions where the short-term variability is smaller and the signal-to-noise ratio is higher. The large-scale, three-dimensional ocean circulation and the formation of water masses that ventilate the main thermocline together create pathways for the transport of heat, freshwater and dissolved gases such as carbon dioxide from the surface ocean into the density stratified deeper ocean, thereby isolating them from further interaction with the atmosphere. These pathways are also important for the transport of anomalies in these parameters caused by changes in the surface conditions. Furthermore, changes in the storage of heat and in the distribution of ocean salinity cause the ocean to expand or contract and hence change the sea level both regionally and globally.
    A summary of a recent IPCC report:


    So if I return to your excessive claim:
    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    With that said, I think the AGW crowd is so focused on their particular issue that they are simply ignoring everything else.
    That was BS. Absolute BS. They are not ignoring anything, they simply don't share your own view and you can't stand it.

    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    As an example, in 1548 the Chinese built a gigantic levee on the Yangtze River, which increased current flow resulting in cooler water flowing into the western Pacific where most of the earth's climate originates. This was two years prior to the beginning of the mini-ice-age that lasted from about 1550 to 1850. Of course I'm not saying that it caused the ice age. What I am saying that there are many factors that contribute to the intensity of seasonal climates.
    Do you have any reference of a study quantifying this effect on the oceanic currents or on the global climate?
    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    You can make of this map whatever you like, but note the increased snowfall in the higher latitudes:

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring...r/snow1804.gif
    You took the map for the year 2018 but if you look at all the years to see the trend you see something else:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0012-1
    Quote Originally Posted by Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US
    Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying much of the water used for irrigated agriculture, and municipal and industrial uses. Updating our earlier work published in 2005, we find that with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US now show declines, of which 33% are significant (vs. 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs. 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. We find a large increase in the fraction of locations that posted decreasing trends, and averaged across the western US, the decline in average April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15–30% or 25–50 km3, comparable in volume to the West’s largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead
    Quote Originally Posted by B.W.
    The data on the glaciers, as far as I know, only goes back to about 1850. That was a time when they were still close to the maximum extent they reached in the mini-ice age in the 1700s. Nevertheless, the signs based on the predictions have come down in spite of what the so-called "fact checkers" claim. The extent of the Glaciers before the mini ice age, as far as I know, hasn't been determined.
    Actually there are plenty of studies on the glaciers in general to assess their extent in the past.

    An example with an ice field:
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/....1002/jqs.1111

    Quote Originally Posted by Ice‐borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations
    During the hot summer of 2003, reduction of an ice field in the Swiss Alps (Schnidejoch) uncovered spectacular archaeological hunting gear, fur, leather and woollen clothing and tools from four distinct windows of time: Neolithic Age (4900 to 4450 cal. yr BP), early Bronze Age (4100–3650 cal. yr BP), Roman Age (1st–3rd century AD), and Medieval times (8–9th century AD and 14–15th century AD). Transalpine routes connecting northern Italy with the northern Alps during these slots are consistent with late Holocene maximum glacier retreat. The age cohorts of the artefacts are separated which is indicative of glacier advances when the route was difficult and not used for transit. The preservation of Neolithic leather indicates permanent ice cover at that site from ca. 4900 cal. yr BP until AD 2003, implying that the ice cover was smaller in 2003 than at any time during the last 5000 years. Current glacier retreat is unprecedented since at least that time. This is highly significant regarding the interpretation of the recent warming and the rapid loss of ice in the Alps.
    And I already put this figure about the isotopic signal we found in Greenland glaciers for the past millenium, the current warming seems really uncommon:
    Last edited by Genava; June 28, 2020 at 09:19 AM.
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    There was an interesting interview on Australian state TV (ABC), I can't find it on the web though, where they interviewed a climate scientist about sceptics. IIRC he made sensible point that a lot of sincere opposition seems to come from economists Now economics has a lot of faith based premises ("capitalism good/communism bad" or its reverse, "invisible hands" and "market forces"). there's some harder more scientific elements too, stuff from maths and so on but really the heart matters in economics, its rather tribal. This may explain the inability of economists to surrender their scepticism, when their own world is so much an area of opinion and faith rather than logic or science.
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Genava
    I already gave you these links from the NASA about the Sun's role on the climate'
    Both NASA & NOAA have been caught manipulating data. These graphs have as much truth to them as a graph I (or anyone else) can draw using GIMP or any similar program, then posting it here.

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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Both NASA & NOAA have been caught manipulating data. These graphs have as much truth to them as a graph I (or anyone else) can draw using GIMP or any similar program, then posting it here.
    Well then it should be quite easy to prove it for you, picture by picture with some right ones yes?

    Here, picture for you. I probably put in it more effort than you in your recent posts

    Last edited by Daruwind; June 30, 2020 at 01:06 AM.
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Global Warning, the unsolvable scam that requires you to handover everything aspect of your life to corrupt politicians, why do people still believe in it ?

    For the killer points are just as below:
    1- Hotter and Colder periods have already existed during mankind stay on earth, the last 30.000 years included a Ice Ages and Hot periods, how come this modest warming is gonna kill us all ? Africa was more liveable in Warm Climate periods
    2- Rising sea levels: China is reclaiming coral reefs to make military bases in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, I don't see them burning money with BS so they must know something.
    3- The same politicians that scare us into compliance would not use a climate scare because they discovered gezuz ?
    4- the giant thermonuclear reactor known as the sun is just "ignored" in these apocalyptic previsions, while it has a cycle of power output which is probably what drives global Warming. Any discussion about this topic that doesn't include historical Solar data is a scam with in thermometers in ovens.

    Edit:
    Would you accept to pay to fix for a problem in your lifetime, then your grandson might see the result or not of the proposed solution ?

    This is not digging up a canal or building a pyramid where you can count and see your progress, this is literally trusting people watching thermometers, which guarantees them billions is they show warm numbers.
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Quote Originally Posted by Menelik_I View Post
    Global Warning, the unsolvable scam that requires you to handover everything aspect of your life to corrupt politicians, why do people still believe in it ?

    For the killer points are just as below:
    1- Hotter and Colder periods have already existed during mankind stay on earth, the last 30.000 years included a Ice Ages and Hot periods, how come this modest warming is gonna kill us all ? Africa was more liveable in Warm Climate periods
    2- Rising sea levels: China is reclaiming coral reefs to make military bases in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, I don't see them burning money with BS so they must know something.
    3- The same politicians that scare us into compliance would not use a climate scare because they discovered gezuz ?
    4- the giant thermonuclear reactor known as the sun is just "ignored" in these apocalyptic previsions, while it has a cycle of power output which is probably what drives global Warming. Any discussion about this topic that doesn't include historical Solar data is a scam with in thermometers in ovens.

    Edit:
    Would you accept to pay to fix for a problem in your lifetime, then your grandson might see the result or not of the proposed solution ?

    This is not digging up a canal or building a pyramid where you can count and see your progress, this is literally trusting people watching thermometers, which guarantees them billions is they show warm numbers.
    Wow there si much material!

    So first, it is exactly this frontmost connection to politics that is bad. This should be discussion just about science. It is up to scientific debate whether global warming is or is not and what factor have humans to play in it. Then of course there is whole debate whether natural cycles will in time restore balance quickly enough without any major problems or not. But this question will ultimately lead to scientific conclusion. That is fact and no political or other nonsense will change facts. We will ultimately see the result and one theory will prove real no matter what people believe... (unless politicians starts WW3 and we all die in nuclear winter right? ) I admit, there is in my eyes very slim chance that no global warming exist. But I´m admitting that only as scientist should always try to stay obejctive. In my eyes majority is supporting human drive global warming theory and that is exactly the problem. All those natural cycles, they are great but working on long time scales while we human are quite extreme and fast that is what is causing toublems with all graphs etc...

    And after all of this politicians or people can still decide that nope, we will enjoy party and don´t care about future. But after all we should never ever jump the scientific debate and jsut put up political discussion. Because historically one side will pick one positions and opposition will pick what? Totally contrary position....Extreme retards at both end of spectrum, great. (like green parties, usually are pretty on left-ish side, so naturally any conservative opposition on right side will say what? No warming what so ever...extremist at both sides without ability to discuss even base facts...)

    Second, I like how you put up some scientific facts and then just cancel other theories and other stuff just like that. I like how you are the authority on what matters!

    As I said, having opinion that is saying " descendants" is still valid political course. It is probably more saying about you as person than about state of Global Warming Because with your altitude, why should civilization ever try some long lasting projects? Colonization of Mars? Nuclear fusion? Space travel.
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    Default Re: Is it Game Over on the climate front?

    Second, I like how you put up some scientific facts and then just cancel other theories and other stuff just like that. I like how you are the authority on what matters!
    I like how you and your buddy Genava keep referencing/spamming the same 'shoddy' NOAA + NASA junk; then calling it scientific fact. :->
    NOAA/NASA has been caught manipulating data; they have lost any credibility they might have had...come on Daruwind try HARDER!

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