India and Pakistan clash over Kashmir

[caratacus]

Tension has been building up for years in Indian administered Kashmir, but the recent killing of 40 Indian paramilitary police by Kashmiri separatists has precipitated a direct conflict between both nations. An attack by the Indian Air force on a claimed operational base for the insurgents inside Pakistan, has now had a retaliation by the Pakistan air force, in which two Indian aircraft have been downed and at least one crewman held captive.

Details of this last encounter remain sketchy, but it seems that Pakistan may have tried to hit a target but been intercepted by the Indian air force who took the fight across the border back into Pakistan.

Is a wider conflict between these two countries inevitable or will both back step back from the brink, before it becomes a full on armed conflict?

India Pakistan: Kashmir fighting sees Indian aircraft downed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47383634

Pakistan says it has shot down two Indian military jets and captured a pilot in a major escalation between the nuclear powers over Kashmir.
India said it lost one MiG21 fighter and a pilot was missing in action. Pakistani PM Imran Khan said the two sides could not afford a miscalculation with the weapons they had. India and Pakistan - both nuclear-armed states - claim all of Kashmir, but control only parts of it.
They have fought three wars since independence from Britain and partition in 1947. All but one were over Kashmir.

The aerial attacks across the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Indian and Pakistani territory are the first since a war in 1971. They follow a militant attack in Kashmir which killed 40 Indian troops - the deadliest to take place during a three-decade insurgency against Indian rule in Kashmir. A Pakistan-based group said it carried out the attack.

[Papay]

I hope Birmingham has place for one billion Pakistani and Indian refugees

[athanaric]

I can't wait till someone blames "the West" for th...

I hope Birmingham has place for one billion Pakistani and Indian refugees

Oh, too late.

[95thrifleman]

This could escalate badly.

[caratacus]

This could escalate badly.

International pressure is being placed on both countries to descalate the tension, from the US, China, Russia etc However, there is still widespread anger in India. especially over the killing of tHose 40 servicemen, and with two shot down Indian aircraft and images of a blindfolded Indian pilot being held captive, the pressure upon the Indian government to undertake further military action must be very great. You wouldn't expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to be too resistant to that pressure, whatever the consequences. The decision to undertake an airstrike into Pakistan was incredibly risky, and so far it is India that has come off the worst for it.

[95thrifleman]

International pressure is being placed on both countries to descalate the tension, from the US, China, Russia etc However, there is still widespread anger in India. especially over the killing of tHose 40 servicemen, and with two shot down Indian aircraft and images of a blindfolded Indian pilot being held captive, the pressure upon the Indian government to undertake further military action must be very great. You wouldn't expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to be too resistant to that pressure, whatever the consequences. The decision to undertake an airstrike into Pakistan was incredibly risky, and so far it is India that has come off the worst for it.

I think the Indians have been influenced by the actions in the middle east, using air power for counter-insurgency. Problem is those ops where conducted against insurgents operating without air defence. Pakistan has equality to Indian so could protect their airspace.

[The Wandering Storyteller]

Generally nuclear bombs won't be used as the media is exaggerating it to be. Both sides are fully aware of this. Most likely India is fed up of its neighbour, and its no longer going to stand for any nonsense.

Quite literally, Pakistan's GDP is less than the GDP of than the state of Mahahastra. Indian Businesses and Indian Companies can literally buy out Pakistan's shares quite easily.

The real war is not being fought with the army/navy - that's already been done. The real war is economics and water. India's diplomatic circle is far stronger thanks to Modi building it for five years, and India is to gain from this conflict - certainly, by imposing 200% MFN status, water supply diversion - India has $350 million reserves, Pakistan doesn't even have a substantial amount.

And why condemn India for it? China threatened to stop the flow of the Bhramaputra River, and sent troops to intervene in Kashmir. When Xi Jingping visited in 2014, Chinese troops were walking into Indian border. Then in 2017 you saw a great escalation between India and China.

So as far as I am concerned, this is a very new India compared to 2011.

My opinion only. I do not use sources because this conflict is already covered up with sources.

No, they’re not. The Pakistani Air Force is constantly ranked in the top 5 worst air forces in their world. They have inferior training and inferior equipment. India is ranked in top 10.

What's amazing is how the pilot with an old outdated MIG managed to take down an F16.

I remember an American commenter amazed at this irony.

This could escalate badly.

It won’t. China is the more serious threat to India.

[Prodromos]

These air strikes are wrong. India and Pakistan have acted in a reckless and provocative manner. After today's actions I urge both sides to put aside the rhetoric, get round the negotiating table and stop this kind of thing happening again.

[athanaric]

These air strikes are wrong. India and Pakistan have acted in a reckless and provocative manner. After today's actions I urge both sides to put aside the rhetoric, get round the negotiating table and stop this kind of thing happening again.

It would help if Pakistan didn't send terrorists into India, who proceed to murder random Indians and foreign tourists alike.

[caratacus]

It would help if Pakistan didn't send terrorists into India, who proceed to murder random Indians and foreign tourists alike.

There has been an increasingly level of radicalism in Kashmir which is creating a toxic situation that was bound to escalate into violence, Street clashes are now common and with that a increasing build up of Indian security forces. A situation the world has largely chosen to ignore.

This is a good video showing the situation in Kashmir in which religious faith has become the foremost point of division, rather than self determination and national identity.

An immersive look into today's Kashmir
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uciDmBrN0II
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHqTS8YbXgA

[tgoodenow]

The video of the Pakistani civilians beating the captured Indian pilot while the Pakistani soldiers don’t intervene is only going to harden the resolve of the Indian public. Dumb move especially during an election year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mir...n-14060130.amp

[Love Mountain]

Crickets from the Indian MoD. They are probably reviewing their options. India is stronger than Pakistan. They can choose to escalate.

1. A war will probably boost Modi’s position since he draws on Indian nationalism.
2. They may create an opportunity to take all of Kashmir.

[95thrifleman]

Crickets from the Indian MoD. They are probably reviewing their options. India is stronger than Pakistan. They can choose to escalate.

1. A war will probably boost Modi’s position since he draws on Indian nationalism.
2. They may create an opportunity to take all of Kashmir.

I don't think outside players would let that happen.

[Papay]

Crickets from the Indian MoD. They are probably reviewing their options. India is stronger than Pakistan. They can choose to escalate.

1. A war will probably boost Modi’s position since he draws on Indian nationalism.
2. They may create an opportunity to take all of Kashmir.

Pakistan has better army. The irony is that they have practiced against their own people plus they have american weapons

[tgoodenow]

Pakistan has better army. The irony is that they have practiced against their own people plus they have american weapons

Their air force is a laughing stock though which is all that really matters in this day and age.

[95thrifleman]

Their air force is a laughing stock though which is all that really matters in this day and age.

Two downed planes suggest decent air defence

[tgoodenow]

Two downed planes suggest decent air defence

I doubt India was targeting Pakistani air defenses in their strike. With the inevitable air superiority the Indians would quickly achieve, air defenses would quickly be known Ed out.

[Papay]

Their air force is a laughing stock though which is all that really matters in this day and age.

Their air force is American made lol

[Love Mountain]

Their air force is American made lol

No it isn't... The vast majority of their fleet relies on Chinese aircraft.

Pakistan's air defences are really. Their best SAM is the LY-80 a Chinese copy of the Buk missile system.

Which is a potent platform from what I can tell. Against 4th gen aircraft anyway. I don't know what kind of SEAD and EW capabilities India has. They probably run pods on Su 30s.

[Winston Smith]

Pakistan has better army. The irony is that they have practiced against their own people plus they have american weapons

Terrorising one's own people does not an effective military make, and one wonders how well they maintain their weapons.