View Poll Results: Which party would you vote for?

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  • Likud (Conservative)

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Thread: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

  1. #521
    nhytgbvfeco2's Avatar Praefectus
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    You said that "Israel is not an ethno state." (sic)
    Israel is the ethno state of the Jewish people.
    No. It is a nation state. The definition of ethno-state is, according to the Oxford dictionary is as follows:
    A sovereign state of which citizenship is restricted to members of a particular racial or ethnic group.
    This is not, even remotely, the case in Israel, and you know it.
    I support the idea of Israel as a nation state of the Jewish people, condition sine qua non for its survival. Refusing to enshrine civil equality in the law that enshrines the Jewish character of the state is an inevitably side effect of this choice.
    Not every law has to enshrine equality. We have other laws that do that already, but had no laws enshrining Israel as a Jewish state, hence the law was passed.
    No, because they are not Jews, Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is 'not a state of all its citizens .


    It's crystal clear.
    Oh. My. God. Dude. Do I REALLY have to explain to you for the like 7th time what "state of all its citizens" means in Israel? I'm really tired of having this conversation over and over again, you not replying to it, and then making the exact same claim AGAIN.
    I'll keep it short: In Israel a "state of all its citizens" is the opposite to a nation state. Israel being "not a state of all its citizens" just means that it's a nation state. Portugal is also not a "state of all its citizens". Most of Europe's countries are not "states of all their citizens".
    Source: go to this wikipedia page and translate it to english.
    Can you actually read it this time and not bring this up again in a few months? Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I think that impression comes from a significant vocal minority, but it appears not to be the case:

    It almost certainly differs regionally. I assume that in Haifa, they're much more likely to identify as Arab-Israelis compared to the Triangle, where most probably consider themselves to be Palestinians. Nevertheless, as you mentioned:
    Oh, well, really should have double checked it before saying that lol.

  2. #522
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Portugal is also not a "state of all its citizens".
    Can you..not bring this up again in a few months
    ?
    Oops...
    Well,I only now noticed this..
    Not at all. Portugal is a state for all its citizens.The Portuguese Constitution grants to all its citizens (inside any state there are citizens and non citizens) full citizenship rights,ensuring complete equality of social and political rights to all our inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex. Constitution, Article 13 (Principle of equality)
    All citizens possess the same social dignity and are equal before the law.No one may be privileged, favoured, prejudiced, deprived of any right or exempted from any duty for reasons of ancestry, sex, race, language, territory of origin, religion, political or ideological beliefs, education, economic situation, social circumstances or sexual orientation
    Israel being "not a state of all its citizens" just means that it's a nation state.
    Portugal is one of the oldest nation-states in the world and -obviously- it is a nation state for all its citizens.How could it be different?
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  3. #523

    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Portugal is a state for all its citizens.
    In Hebrew, Portugal is definitely not a "state for all its citizens". Portugal recognizes no other national identity as of equal status to Portuguese within Portugal. It simply grants individuals with other national identities equal legal status as citizens, the same as Israel does. You referred to Portugal as a nation-state. In Hebrew, a nation-state and a "state for all its citizens" are mutually exclusive terms. You're continuing to (deliberately?) misunderstand the term as if its meaning can be derived from a literal word for word translation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  4. #524
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    In Hebrew, Portugal is definitely not a "state for all its citizens"
    "In Hebrew" Israel is not a state for all its citizens. In Israel, as far as 1966, the Supreme Court ruled that there was no contradiction between Israel's identity as a Jewish state and a state for all its citizens.But, even in Israel, its a highly controversial subject.According to the Haaretz, "Netanyahu surely knows that a state that only belongs to some of its citizens is not democratic" The proposed nation-state law is discriminatory and nationalistic
    -----
    In Portuguese, the Portuguese nation-state is a state of all its citizens, for all its citizens, whatever race its members belong to, or whatever religion they practice.Read the Portuguese Constitution: Article 4; article 12 (principle of universality), article 13 (principle of equality) and article 14 (Portuguese abroad).
    Here, a bill by the radical right-wing party "Chega/Enough" aimed to limit the exercise of the offices of prime minister, minister and secretary of state to those holding "original Portuguese nationality", changing the constitution. This bill was not approved- as expected. In Portugal the debate concerning national identity is very old.

    I fully understand that the fundamental condition for Israel and the Jews surviving is that Israel is a Jewish State-and the state plans to use nation-state law to defend outpost legalization- State plans to use nation-state law to defend outpost legalization-Times of Israel

    Israel will survive, Israel must survive, Israel has the right to survive, but the Palestinians also have the right to survive and for them the right of return is a gold standard. That's the position of the Portuguese left.
    Slightly of topic, let me tell you a little story.
    Here, the radical right is a one-man show. A. Ventura is the uncontested leader, and there is no far right party (Chega/Enough) without him. A few months ago, Ventura, openly racist, sparked outrage after saying the first black woman to head a leftist party list in a Portuguese legislative election- Joacine Moreira- should be "returned to her own country".

    So, ask me-what was the first legislative initiative presented by Joacine in the Parliament? a draft resolution proposed by Joacine in 2019 recommended the homage of the former consul Aristides de Sousa Mendes to the National Pantheon, housing the tombs of Portugal's major historic celebrities. The resolution was approved by a collective decision of all MPs from all the parties on the left and the right- except the leader of the far-right party. Yes,the same guy who calls for black MP Joacine Moreira to be ”sent back to her country of origin”.

    To conclude this story, just a few days ago- Portugal honors envoy who saved thousands from Nazis -Times of Israel.
    Leading Portuguese politicians and public figures attended the formal televised ceremony as the tomb was placed alongside other celebrated figures from Portuguese history at the landmark Lisbon building.
    It’s worth watching the video.A magnificent homage to Aristides and to victims of the Holocaust.In English from the 2.50 minute on.



    Food for thought: Israelis, do not diabolize the entire leftist spectrum.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  5. #525
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Oops...
    Well,I only now noticed this..
    Not at all. Portugal is a state for all its citizens.The Portuguese Constitution grants to all its citizens (inside any state there are citizens and non citizens) full citizenship rights,ensuring complete equality of social and political rights to all our inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex. Constitution, Article 13 (Principle of equality)
    Lud. Buddy. Pal. Amigo. I beg you, actually do what I said in the post you've quoted: go to the article I linked, and hit translate. Please. Obrigado.
    You're doing it on purpose at this point, aren't you? You have to be.


    Portugal is one of the oldest nation-states in the world and -obviously- it is a nation state for all its citizens.How could it be different?
    Because in Hebrew those terms contradict each other. Surely, being a non-native speaker of English, you can understand how a word for word translation from one language to another is not always accurate.

    "In Hebrew" Israel is not a state for all its citizens.
    Correct. And neither is Portugal, nor most of the EU.

  6. #526
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    No, sorry Portugal is a nation-state for all its citizens.
    1 The nation in Europe.

    Regarding the Portuguese case, we found that state and nation were early associated. José Mattoso(2001) argues that the shaping of both Portugal and the Portuguese is administratively done and it is a result of the king’s and the court’s sphere of action.Proof, according to the historian, is the fact that the country adopted a name that does not point to an ethnic referent (such as France, “land of the Franks” or Germany, “land of the Germans”), but to a political-administrative one, Oporto, which had the ability to baptize the whole country (Mattoso, 2001:60). Thus, Mattoso’s claim contradicts the one which has been popularized by the Portuguese nationalism: the assertion that there would be a Portuguese race or ethnicity.
    Also, Historical development of statehood and the Portuguese example - TWcenter
    Last edited by Ludicus; October 29, 2021 at 05:01 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  7. #527
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, sorry Portugal is a nation-state for all its citizens.
    Ludicus. Go. To. The. Article. I. Linked. And. Click. Translate. Seriously, this takes 3 seconds to do.
    Because there you will see that the literal first line in the definition for a "State of all its citizens", by the definition used in Israel, not the international definition, is as follows: "The state of all its citizens is a nickname for a state that is not a nation state"

    Last edited by nhytgbvfeco2; October 31, 2021 at 05:38 AM.

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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2 View Post
    the definition used in Israel, not the international definition, is as follows: "The state of all its citizens is a nickname for a state that is not a nation state"
    "its not the international definition..." I don't want to upset you, but Israel is also against the international consensus about the Palestinian question.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  9. #529
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    "its not the international definition..." I don't want to upset you, but Israel is also against the international consensus about the Palestinian question.
    Nice whataboutism, but not particularly relevant to what we were discussing.

  10. #530
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2 View Post
    Nice whataboutism, but not particularly relevant to what we were discussing.
    I have been saying that Portugal is a nation state for all its citizens, and that is true. In Israel, what is at stake is is the nation state law. The Haaretz share my point of view on this, Israel's nation-state law isn't 'declarative,' it does real damage
    --
    Have you ever heard about Y.K.? Yehudit Karp | Jewish Women's Archive
    She was involved was involved in the development of Israel’s Basic Law (essentially its constitution) and charter of rights. She says, "What I'm about to write will not come easily for me...Our Israel is what it has become: Apartheid".
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  11. #531
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    I have been saying that Portugal is a nation state for all its citizens, and that is true.
    By the international definition? sure, maybe. By the Israeli definition? no.

    In Israel, what is at stake is is the nation state law.
    It's not at stake at all
    The Haaretz share my point of view on this, Israel's nation-state law isn't 'declarative,' it does real damage

    I'm sure it does, but it's behind a paywall.
    Have you ever heard about Y.K.?
    No
    Yehudit Karp | Jewish Women's Archive
    She was involved was involved in the development of Israel’s Basic Law (essentially its constitution) and charter of rights. She says, "What I'm about to write will not come easily for me...Our Israel is what it has become: Apartheid".
    Her logic is flawed, to say the least:
    She defines Apartheid as an effort by an ethnic group/nationality to maintain control over another by implementing two systems in one geographic area. That is not, in fact, the definition of Apartheid. Apartheid is separation by race, not by ethnicity or nationality. Virtually every country in the world employs different standards based on nationality, i.e: whether or not the people are nationals of said country.
    Israel does not separate by race, it does not separate by ethnicity, it does separate by nationality.
    Also, he continues to use the term Jewish when really she should be using the term Israeli, for example when writing "One is priviliged for the Jewish citizens..". This is false, as an Israeli-Arab, an Israeli-Armenian, an Israeli-Circassian and an Israeli-anything will have the exact same priviliges and rights as an Israeli Jew would. She attempts to paint it as a distinction based on ethnicity. It is not.


  12. #532
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2 View Post
    By the international definition? sure, maybe. By the Israeli definition? no..Her logic is flawed,
    Well, she was involved in the development of Israel’s Basic Law , and charter of rights.She must know what she is talking about. You know,my friend, here, a long time ago, according to the national definition, in the context of an international anti-colonialist tide, any mention of the term "colonial" was to be altogether avoided. The 1951 constitutional revision provided precisely the much needed terminological make-up, so that the colonies were termed "overseas provinces" and the empire became simply " Portugal's ultramarine". Therefore there was no sense in decreeing the UN endorsed self-determination regime.
    A rough comparison, but I hope you get my point now. Bennet’s agenda on Palestine:No peace,no to a Palestinian state,yes to more colonates. I maintain that Israel has the right to exist as a free country, the same right I claim for the Palestinian people-but Israel does not want peace. It wants war, because definitely it does not want two states.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  13. #533

    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    but Israel does not want peace. It wants war, because definitely it does not want two states.
    Nah, the vast majority of Israelis want peace, they just see it as a delusion. They know that at least for the foreseeable future, the Palestinian hardliners, who hold significant support, won't agree to any two-state arrangement that isn't functionally a step toward the elimination of Israel. The whole notion of a two-state solution as you might imagine it, is irrelevant in Israeli politics. Yair Lapid supports a two state solution, but in practice that would mean something along the lines of the Trump/Kushner plan, and he is the closest there is to an Israeli politician who could put together a center-left coalition, though not close enough to actually make it happen. The reason this has become the Israeli view isn't because they don't want peace, it's because they aren't interested in making it easier for Palestinian militants to kill their citizens in exchange for nothing.

    In actual news, the new coalition has managed to pass a budget. Considering their diversity, many predicted this is where they'd falter, which would have triggered snap elections. The budget includes nearly $10 billion in funding to improve socioeconomic conditions for Israel’s Arab minority, which all Arab parties except Ra'am voted against, presumably because f... the Jews and anyone who would cooperate with them.

    More details from the second link:

    In his remarks from the Knesset podium on Wednesday evening ahead of the voting, Bennett said passing the budget was “the most important moment since the government was formed.”

    He said the new budget being introduced comes “after three and a half years of chaos, failed management and paralysis, years in which the country was a tool in a personal game, years of four election campaigns one after another at a dead end.”

    The diverse composition of the government led by Bennett — made up of right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties plus an Islamist faction — had, however, complicated the effort to pass a budget, with the opposition of a single lawmaker theoretically able to bring down the wafer-thin coalition.

    Some individual lawmakers used the coalition’s tiny margin of 61 seats in the 120-person Knesset to force their issues, such as New Right’s Zvi Hauser, who threatened to boycott the plenum unless more money for the National Library was included in the budget.

    In another incident, Housing Minister Ze’ev Elkin agreed to postpone and reconsider the planned eviction of a family from public housing in the town of Gan Yavne, after two coalition lawmakers said they would leave the plenum Thursday morning to observe the removal of the family.

    As the marathon session began, it became clear that the Joint List, a predominantly Arab Israeli party, was voting with the rest of the opposition against the budget, meaning that the coalition would likely need all of its lawmakers present for the entire voting process. However, the Joint List voted with the coalition on objections raised by Likud, giving the coalition a bit of breathing room.

    Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu also helped the coalition along at one point, accidentally voting with the government. The same mistake was also made by Shas head Aryeh Deri, though their votes did not change the outcome in either case.

    While failure to pass the bill could have seen the government collapse, passage of the economic plan is expected to stabilize the coalition for the near future at least, amid attempts by the opposition to drive wedges between the coalition’s various ideologies.

    Throughout the night, MKs fortified themselves with candies and sweets to stay awake and alert as they sped through votes, while also aiming bitter accusations across the aisle at each other.

    In a speech ahead of the voting, Netanyahu lauded anti-government protesters who gathered in Tel Aviv’s HaBima Square Tuesday, saying they came to “drive out the darkness “of the current government.

    Digging into the ruling coalition, Netanyahu denounced the “government of lies,” which, he asserted, would raise the costs of living for Israelis.

    Earlier, Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman said it would be the first budget passed in three and a half years “because of the personal interests of one man, who was willing to sacrifice Israel’s economy” for that interest — another reference to Netanyahu.

    Netanyahu is widely believed to have torpedoed the most recent budget under his power-sharing government with Benny Gantz, in order to bring down that coalition and avoid passing the premiership on to him as had been agreed between the two as part of their deal.

    That fight led directly to the collapse of the last government and the most recent election, the results of which saw Netanyahu ousted from office.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  14. #534
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    the vast majority of Israelis want peace
    Certainly. Allow me to rephrase: "Israel's new government does not want peace"

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    any two-state arrangement that isn't functionally a step toward the elimination of Israel..they aren't interested in making it easier for Palestinian militants to kill their citizens in exchange for nothing.
    I beg to disagree, a one-state solution is even harder. According to a 2020 poll, only 10% of Jewish Israelis supported a one-state solution in which Palestinians and Jewish Israelis are equal citizens. It is also true that only 13% of Israel's Arab citizens supported such an option.But- by contrast- 42% percent of Jewish Israelis and 59% percent of Arab Israelis supported a two states solution.The Palestine/Israel Pulse, a Joint Poll Summary Report
    A two states solution is desirable and possible, according to the Center for a New American Security. A New US Strategy for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
    And the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Breaking the Israel-Palestine Status Quo
    Who is Michael Barnett
    Viewpoint: Good-Bye Two-State Solution, Hello Apartheid?
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  15. #535
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Well, she was involved in the development of Israel’s Basic Law , and charter of rights.She must know what she is talking about.
    Apparently she doesn't.
    You know,my friend, here, a long time ago, according to the national definition, in the context of an international anti-colonialist tide, any mention of the term "colonial" was to be altogether avoided. The 1951 constitutional revision provided precisely the much needed terminological make-up, so that the colonies were termed "overseas provinces" and the empire became simply " Portugal's ultramarine". Therefore there was no sense in decreeing the UN endorsed self-determination regime.
    I do not see the relevance. The argument here is because you've quoted Netanyahu saying "Israel is not a state of all its citizens", and by the definition of the term in Israel, it isn't, because what that term in Israel means is "the opposite of the nation-state". Simple as. Feel free to provide the definition of the term as is internationally used and we can discuss if it fits or not, because I can't seem to find such a term outside of the Israeli context on google.
    A rough comparison, but I hope you get my point now. Bennet’s agenda on Palestine:No peace,no to a Palestinian state,yes to more colonates.
    Bennet isn't opposed to peace, he just has a different way of achieving it (one that I disagree with). He is indeed opposed to a palestinian state, instead opting for a palestinian autonomy.
    I maintain that Israel has the right to exist as a free country, the same right I claim for the Palestinian people-but Israel does not want peace. It wants war, because definitely it does not want two states.
    What Bennet wants isn't what Israel wants. He is the leader of a party of 7 (6 really) seats in a parliament of 120, and is currently PM due to a political compromise to oust Netanyahu. There is only one other party in parliament opposed to a palestinian state, and it too has 7 seats (and is in the opposition). the other 104 seats are held by parties that support a two state solution, as do 55 of the 61 members of the ruling coalition.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    I beg to disagree, a one-state solution is even harder. According to a 2020 poll, only 10% of Jewish Israelis supported a one-state solution in which Palestinians and Jewish Israelis are equal citizens. It is also true that only 13% of Israel's Arab citizens supported such an option.But- by contrast- 42% percent of Jewish Israelis and 59% percent of Arab Israelis supported a two states solution.The Palestine/Israel Pulse, a Joint Poll Summary Report
    A two states solution is desirable and possible, according to the Center for a New American Security. A New US Strategy for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
    And the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Breaking the Israel-Palestine Status Quo
    Who is Michael Barnett
    Viewpoint: Good-Bye Two-State Solution, Hello Apartheid?
    You've missed his point. The two state solution you in the west always assume when you hear the term isn't the one Israelis support; it's not the 67 borders, it's something closer to the Trump plan.

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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    It seems that the leader of the opposition, MK Netanyahu, mr.there won't be nothing because there wasn't nothing, has opted to go forward with trying to reach a plea bargain, meaning that he did, after all, do something wrong. This is a substantial development, which could have massive political ramifications. If Netanyahu admits guilt and is forced to leave politics, for a minimum of 7 years according to current law (although there are proposals submitted by MK's to double it to 14), this would lead not only to a battle for the succession of Netanyahu's Likud party, but could also very well dismantle the current governing coalition, held together only by mutual opposition to Netanyahu.
    Election round 5, I hear you ask? Well not neccesarily. If the current coalition breaks up a new one could easily rise with the absence of Netanyahu: a right wing - ultra-orthodox coalition. After all, Yamina was willing to join Netanyahu's coalition already, and New Hope only refused to do so under Netanyahu. Under a new leader this could very well happen.

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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2 View Post
    It seems that the leader of the opposition, MK Netanyahu, mr.there won't be nothing because there wasn't nothing, has opted to go forward with trying to reach a plea bargain, meaning that he did, after all, do something wrong. This is a substantial development, which could have massive political ramifications. If Netanyahu admits guilt and is forced to leave politics, for a minimum of 7 years according to current law (although there are proposals submitted by MK's to double it to 14), this would lead not only to a battle for the succession of Netanyahu's Likud party, but could also very well dismantle the current governing coalition, held together only by mutual opposition to Netanyahu.
    Election round 5, I hear you ask? Well not neccesarily. If the current coalition breaks up a new one could easily rise with the absence of Netanyahu: a right wing - ultra-orthodox coalition. After all, Yamina was willing to join Netanyahu's coalition already, and New Hope only refused to do so under Netanyahu. Under a new leader this could very well happen.
    Thx for the update, by golly at least its never boring.

    I have no doubt most politicians have to break some law or do some shonky deal just to get near the podium for some gatekeeper or other (I think that's why old mate Bernie can't get the nom in the US, but that's another kettle of fish). Netanyahu certainly said some strident things about the legal system and the "deep state" (which sounded odd as he was a fixture in the state forever).
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  18. #538
    nhytgbvfeco2's Avatar Praefectus
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
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    Israel
    Posts
    6,444

    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Well it has been a year.. ish.. which frankly is too long, so time for another election.
    The coalition's whip has defected to the opposition, her official reason being.. the minister of health complying with a ruling by the Israeli supreme court that people will be allowed to bring bread into hospitals during passover. Yes, you've read that correctly.

    Why is 1 defection important? Well, because the ruling coalition had 61 members, and the opposition had 59. Now both have 60. The coalition has lost its majority.
    So is that it? an election is guaranteed? Well, not yet. While the coalition no longer has a majority and is now unable to pass any laws, the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) is currently in a time out so no votes can happen either way. Said time out is until the 8th of May, so it probably has at least another month in it. Even then the opposition doesn't have the majority required to disband the coalition via a vote of no confidence, however all it takes is 1 member of the coalition being unable to attend a vote for that to happen. However all of this is assuming there aren't more defections, and there well could be.

    So okay, say the coalition is disbanded, then it's an election right? Well, not yet. Another coalition could in theory still be formed in the current Knesset. While Netanyahu failed previously even when he had the support of the party of the current Prime Minister, Naftali Bennet. The defecting member of Knesset is from Bennet's party, so on that front there is little change. Unless Netanyahu can convince Ra'am, the Islamist party part of the ruling coalition, do join his side he will remain unable to create a coalition. However an interesting development following the defection today came from, of all places, the new head of the "United Torah Judaism" party, Moshe Gafni. Gafni came out with a statement saying that the opposition too must ask itself who is the most likely candidate for forming a coalition. The meaning is clear: It doesn't have to be Netanyahu.

    Could a non-Netanyahu coalition happen? Yes. Netanyahu is able to scrounge up 59 supporters, which is just shy of the neccesary 61. This is in part because our favourite definitely-not-star-wars-party, "A new hope", a party built entirely from people who defected from Netanyahu's Likud party, refuse to sit in a government led by Netanyahu. A coalition led by a different Likud member, or heck even Bennet again, could work. Is this likely to happen? No.

    So are we headed for an election? I'd say yes. Unless the coalition can miracoulously pick up a member of the opposition to join it I cannot see it lasting any longer. It may attempt to survive as a dead coalition, forced to vote against opposition laws and votes of no confidence all day every day for the following three years, but that I don't see lasting at all. I also don't see a non-Netanyahu led right-wing coalition rising, although a Netanyahu led one is possible though very unlikely. I think in all likelihood, at about 90% confidence, that we are headed for an election.

    "Elections now, elections tomorrow and elections forever!"

  19. #539
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    May 2015
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    Deep within the dark german forest
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    8,422

    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    The coalition's whip has defected to the opposition, her official reason being.. the minister of health complying with a ruling by the Israeli supreme court that people will be allowed to bring bread into hospitals during passover.
    I'm no expert in jewish religion, but is passover not all about breaking bread after fasting?
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  20. #540
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
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    Default Re: Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2 View Post
    Well it has been a year.. ish.. which frankly is too long, so time for another election.
    The coalition's whip has defected to the opposition, her official reason being.. the minister of health complying with a ruling by the Israeli supreme court that people will be allowed to bring bread into hospitals during passover. Yes, you've read that correctly.

    Why is 1 defection important? Well, because the ruling coalition had 61 members, and the opposition had 59. Now both have 60. The coalition has lost its majority.
    So is that it? an election is guaranteed? Well, not yet. While the coalition no longer has a majority and is now unable to pass any laws, the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) is currently in a time out so no votes can happen either way. Said time out is until the 8th of May, so it probably has at least another month in it. Even then the opposition doesn't have the majority required to disband the coalition via a vote of no confidence, however all it takes is 1 member of the coalition being unable to attend a vote for that to happen. However all of this is assuming there aren't more defections, and there well could be.

    So okay, say the coalition is disbanded, then it's an election right? Well, not yet. Another coalition could in theory still be formed in the current Knesset. While Netanyahu failed previously even when he had the support of the party of the current Prime Minister, Naftali Bennet. The defecting member of Knesset is from Bennet's party, so on that front there is little change. Unless Netanyahu can convince Ra'am, the Islamist party part of the ruling coalition, do join his side he will remain unable to create a coalition. However an interesting development following the defection today came from, of all places, the new head of the "United Torah Judaism" party, Moshe Gafni. Gafni came out with a statement saying that the opposition too must ask itself who is the most likely candidate for forming a coalition. The meaning is clear: It doesn't have to be Netanyahu.

    Could a non-Netanyahu coalition happen? Yes. Netanyahu is able to scrounge up 59 supporters, which is just shy of the neccesary 61. This is in part because our favourite definitely-not-star-wars-party, "A new hope", a party built entirely from people who defected from Netanyahu's Likud party, refuse to sit in a government led by Netanyahu. A coalition led by a different Likud member, or heck even Bennet again, could work. Is this likely to happen? No.

    So are we headed for an election? I'd say yes. Unless the coalition can miracoulously pick up a member of the opposition to join it I cannot see it lasting any longer. It may attempt to survive as a dead coalition, forced to vote against opposition laws and votes of no confidence all day every day for the following three years, but that I don't see lasting at all. I also don't see a non-Netanyahu led right-wing coalition rising, although a Netanyahu led one is possible though very unlikely. I think in all likelihood, at about 90% confidence, that we are headed for an election.

    "Elections now, elections tomorrow and elections forever!"
    For all these elections does any real basic bits of either Domestic or Foreign policy actually change?
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

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