Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

[Aexodus]

Yeah I was gonna say why is Meretz so popular on TWC? Perhaps we are more out of touch with Israel/middle east issues than I thought.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Well, I assume those who politically lean left don't have a lot of options on the list that are left-wing so they go for Meretz. Israel just doesn't have that many leftists anymore, they're a dying breed.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

With the election mere days away the final pre elections polls have been released, and the picture they paint is as follows:
Pro-Netanyahu: 51/50
Anti Netanyahu: 60/60
Yamina: 9/10


61 to win. Yamina would join either side, though would prefer to create its own coalition, but at this size it’s highly unlikely.


What does this mean? It means that, at least in my humble opinion, Netanyahu won. Why? Well first of all historically Likud has usually over performed polls, so it’s quite likely the pro-Netanyahu side will gain an extra seat which is all it needs. While the anti-Netanyahu side boasts an impressive number of seats, it all collapses when you begin looking into the makeup: the joint list (and Ra’am if it passes) won’t join a coalition, any coalition, meaning while they oppose Netanyahu they don’t support anyone. That’s 12 seats.

Another point to keep in mind: 5 parties are at risk of not obtaining the minimum number of votes required, and of those 4 are in the anti-Netanyahu camp. If one or more of those fails to pass Netanyahu has an easy path to 61.


Now to why I think Netanyahu won even if the polls do prove accurate and it looks even: Netanyahu has successfully painted yesh atid, and it’s leader Yair Lapid, as his main rival this election. When new hope had formed it had gained a substantial number of seats from Yesh Atid, but those have by now all gone back. Why does this matter if both are anti-Netanyahu? Because now Netanyahu can shift the narrative: it’s right vs left again. It doesn’t matter that lapid isn’t actually left, he’s the only major candidate left of Netanyahu. Where as Sa’ar (new hope) or Bennet (Yamina) had a chance to form a coalition by gaining the support of some pro-Netanyahu parties Lapid does not, and he knows it. To this day he still has not declared candidacy for prime minister, but with him getting up to 20 seats in some polls while Yamina and new hope are now struggling to gain double digits he seems to have no choice but to do so. Yesh atid’s campaign has been almost non existent, but Netanyahu did all the work for them, and now in the last moment initiated a blitz on new hope and yamina voters with outright lies stating that yamina wouldn’t join his coalition in an effort to gain a few more seats at their expense from right wingers afraid of a left wing government.


All in all Netanyahu has played the center and left like a damn fiddle. Rather than realize that the only hope to replace Netanyahu would have to be on the right wing they once again have coalesced around the lame duck Yesh Atid, just as Netanyahu told them to do, and they’re none the wiser.

To summarize: It’s either straight up a Netanyahu victory, or a fifth election. There is no other option.

[sumskilz]

As of 4pm, voter turnout was the lowest it has been since 2009. Not really any way to know what that means yet. Depends on who isn't turning out.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

As of 4pm, voter turnout was the lowest it has been since 2009. Not really any way to know what that means yet. Depends on who isn't turning out.

It means gains for the Ultra-orthodox parties who always have a higher turnout, and quite possibly a wipeout for Meretz.
Though really it could just be today's obnoxious weather and maybe people are waiting for the evening when the air is not sand.

[Cyclops]

It means gains for the Ultra-orthodox parties who always have a higher turnout, and quite possibly a wipeout for Meretz.
Though really it could just be today's obnoxious weather and maybe people are waiting for the evening when the air is not sand.

Is someone deploying the space lasers to make sandstorms? BIBI!

Seriously good luck, I hope a stable government is elected.

People have raised the concern about the one prime Minister being in power "too long", and I know in my country it would be a real concern. I think our "easy" geopolitical position means corruption sets in pretty quick once a government is elected (the current one is very rotten, a similar dominant Labor part in the 80's and 90's got very rotten by the end too) but my impression is there are robust democracies capable of withstanding the risks of a long tenure, especially if there's changes to the coalitions they head.

Germany and Israel are a couple of states with enough external threats and enough parties to keep leaders more or less honest. Of course those conditions aren't sufficient, (look at old mate Berlusconi in Italy, rotten from day 1).

Is Netanyahu's use by date a real concern? My uninformed impression is that its not.

[Macunaíma]

Anyone reasonably informed on Israeli politics can say if these elections can have an impact in the ongoing Palestinian genocide?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

The length of the term isn't much of a factor, the corruption charges for which he is on trial are.

Exit polls are out: Netanyahu has a coalition if he can just get Yamina to join him. Of course, these aren't final results as real counting only begins now.
Update: Now all exit polls show either a 60-60 stalemate or the anti-netanyahu bloc potentially getting a 61 seat majority.

Anyone reasonably informed on Israeli politics can say if these elections can have an impact in the ongoing Palestinian genocide?

Yes: There will continue to not be one.
EDIT: On a more serious note: if it's a solution for the palestinian conflict you're looking for the election to watch will be the one the PA intends to hold in a few months, for the first time since 2005.
When it comes to this (Israeli) election no party campaigned on the palestinian conflict at all. The Israeli public has grown disinterested in that topic as the majority are convinced that no peace is possible with the current PA government.

[Cyclops]

The length of the term isn't much of a factor, the corruption charges for which he is on trial are.

That's been my impression. Not commenting on Bibi's alleged corruption of course, would not have a clue, just in my country it tends to grow over the life of a government pretty steadily, and after the second term it tends to really blossom. Somethng about nappies and politicians being the same, I'm sure there's some equation to express the type, initial intensity and inevitable increase of corruption in Australian government but I'm not STEM so I'll have to do a finger painting instead.

Exit polls are out: Netanyahu has a coalition if he can just get Yamina to join him. Of course, these aren't final results as real counting only begins now.
Update: Now all exit polls show either a 60-60 stalemate or the anti-netanyahu bloc potentially getting a 61 seat majority.

So if I've been following the course of this thread, almost certainly another election? Bloody hell.

Yes: There will continue to not be one.
EDIT: On a more serious note: if it's a solution for the palestinian conflict you're looking for the election to watch will be the one the PA intends to hold in a few months, for the first time since 2005.
When it comes to this (Israeli) election no party campaigned on the palestinian conflict at all. The Israeli public has grown disinterested in that topic as the majority are convinced that no peace is possible with the current PA government.

I hope they can, I'd love Palestine to be able to move forward.

I had an interesting conversation with my step daughter recently. She's a pretty standard uni student, socially activist, save the trees etc (I'm hugely proud of her volunteer work and that she cares about politics) and we were discussing what "institutional racism" actually means in our country (relevant as my footy club recently got smashed for this, and we have some apartheid here). She mentioned Israel as a example of racist government.

I changed the subject to Ottoman society (as an example of a violent aggressive empire, albeit one with some interestingly progressive ideas about tolerance-all slaves of the caliph are equally slaves!) we got around to concepts like the Millet system, and the raya class/classes, and how these concepts translated into post Ottoman states, and then I popped in how Israel retained some of these features. To her credit she observed she actually didn't know a lot about the history of Israel. Added one last truth bomb about the founders being atheist socialists and I left it to stew. I know she's a smart woman, so she'll hopefully do a bit more reading.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

With 88% of the vote counted so far the results are.. terrible. Fifth election? too early to say, but unless Netanyahu pulls something out of his sleeve I don't see any coalition forming here, save for a very terrible one I'll elaborate on after the results:
Likud 30 (Netanyahu)
Yesh Atid 17 (Anti-Netanyahu)
Shad 9 (Ultra-orthodox pro Netanyahu)
Blue and white 8 (Anti-Netanyahu)
United Torah Judaism 7 (Pro-Netanyahu)
Labour 7 (Anti-Netanyahu)
Israel Beitenu 7 (Anti-Netanyahu)
Yamina 7 (Neutral)
Religious Zionist Party 6 (Pro-Netanyahu, is a merger that contains 1 member of a far-right party and 1 member of an anti-LGBT party)
Joint list (Arab party, refuses to join coalitions)
New Hope (Anti-Netanyahu)
Meretz 5 (Anti-Netanyahu)
Ra'am 5 (Arab Islamist party, said would consider joining coalitions)

Don't like maths? to summarise:
Pro Netanyahu: 52 Yamina: 7
Anti Netanyahu: 50 Ra'am: 5 Joint List: 6

This means making a coalition will be hard, and will have to include very much opposing parties. What's the most plausible coalition? well, it's the pro-Netanyahu block+Yamina+Ra'am, and that would be horrible.

A few takeaways from the results so far: The joint list went from 16 down to 6. Ra'am's wager clearly paid off, and although they'll probably drop down to 4 seats they are practically guaranteed to have the votes to pass. Likud also made gains amongst Arab voters, gaining 6% in the entirely Bedouin city of Rahat (worlds biggest Bedouin city).
The small parties all passed and a lot of them overperformed expectations, from Blue&White surviving somehow and doubling the results predicted by polls to Labour managing 7 seats. Well, other than the New Economic Party, but it never really had a chance. Also noteworthy that Meretz managed to survive and gain a seat. Just as a side point for those unaware of how wacky Israeli politics are: other than in Tel-Aviv Meretz is largely only popular in small rural Kibbutz's, gaining hardly anything in big urban cities. For example, in my city of Ashdod (Israel's 6th biggest) Meretz gained a pathetic 0.72% of the vote. In nearby Ashkelon they performed a bit better with 0.82% of the vote, 1.5% in Be'er-Sheva etc.
The biggest letdown hands down has to be New Hope. From being the hope of the election predicted to gain 20 seats just after the party was formed to a measly 5 seats. Ouch.

That's been my impression. Not commenting on Bibi's alleged corruption of course, would not have a clue, just in my country it tends to grow over the life of a government pretty steadily, and after the second term it tends to really blossom. Somethng about nappies and politicians being the same, I'm sure there's some equation to express the type, initial intensity and inevitable increase of corruption in Australian government but I'm not STEM so I'll have to do a finger painting instead.

There are multiple ways to look at this. Say you have a stack of gold and you hire a guard to guard it. You can keep the same guy for 20 years and either don't notice he stole or maybe he didn't steal at all. Or you can keep replacing the guard every month. On the one hand the guy you keep might have just gotten really good at stealing so you don't notice him stealing. On the other hand the more people you let guard your gold the likelier it is that one of them will eventually steal it. Reminds me a bit of a guy who I used to know whom I asked about who he plans to vote for in the mayoral election as our mayor had basically always been our mayor, and he said something along the lines of "whatever damage he could do he would have already done by now, better the crook we know than the one we don't".
Personally I don't know, I guess some kind of term limit would likely be better, 20 years is a bit much. But you also don't throw out a winning horse so.. I'm neutral on the subject. Unless of course he is found guilty, in which case off to jail.

So if I've been following the course of this thread, almost certainly another election? Bloody hell.

With results like these? I hope so.

I had an interesting conversation with my step daughter recently. She's a pretty standard uni student, socially activist, save the trees etc (I'm hugely proud of her volunteer work and that she cares about politics) and we were discussing what "institutional racism" actually means in our country (relevant as my footy club recently got smashed for this, and we have some apartheid here). She mentioned Israel as a example of racist government.

I changed the subject to Ottoman society (as an example of a violent aggressive empire, albeit one with some interestingly progressive ideas about tolerance-all slaves of the caliph are equally slaves!) we got around to concepts like the Millet system, and the raya class/classes, and how these concepts translated into post Ottoman states, and then I popped in how Israel retained some of these features. To her credit she observed she actually didn't know a lot about the history of Israel. Added one last truth bomb about the founders being atheist socialists and I left it to stew. I know she's a smart woman, so she'll hopefully do a bit more reading.

Yeah, people who don't know much about Israel and Zionism picture some kind of evil religious nuts when they hear the word Zionist, hardly any of them realise it was mostly a bunch of Socialist Shlomo's about as religious as your neighbour Ralph (unless Ralph is religious, in which case, nothing at all like him). Not to mention that most Jews in Israel aren't European.

[Papay]

The results are bad for Netanuyahu but unless he resigns as the leader of Likud, i predict he will become prime minister again at some point.

[conon394]

What is the point of the joint list if they don't join coalitions? What is appeal to their voters. Cast a pointless protest vote and pat yourself on the back? They seem as an American about as pointless as voting for Nader back when he cost Gore the election and handed it to a candidate antithetical to more or less his whole platform.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

What is the point of the joint list if they don't join coalitions? What is appeal to their voters. Cast a pointless protest vote and pat yourself on the back? They seem as an American about as pointless as voting for Nader back when he cost Gore the election and handed it to a candidate antithetical to more or less his whole platform.

Yeah, it's pretty pointless. Though it has more impact than not voting: makes it harder for all other parties to form coalitions as there are fewer seats to work with. effectively rather than 120 there are 114 seats right now, but you still need 61 to form a coalition, if you get what I mean. If their voters instead didn't vote at all Netanyahu would have had a coalition.

And the pointlessness of it is why the split occurred, and why Ra'am managed to gain seats while the Joint list lost almost 2/3rds of their seats: Unlike the Joint List, Ra'am is now willing to work with the other parties and join coalitions, even Netanyahu's. Unfortunately for Netanyahu his other coalition members however refuse to sit with Ra'am, in part because they are an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and because they demand cancelling the nation-state law as a pre-requisite for joining a coalition.

[sumskilz]

The nation-state law is a contentious issue between Ra'am and the rightwing parties. LGBT rights are a contentious issue between Ra'am and the leftwing parties. The other items on their agenda are more investment in infrastructure and law enforcement in Arab majority areas, which is where they might be able to make some progress. If they can strike a deal whereby they have independent voting rights on LGBT issues and soften their demands on the nation-state law, it seems possible they could work with the anti-Netanyahu coalition.

[conon394]

Yeah, it's pretty pointless. Though it has more impact than not voting: makes it harder for all other parties to form coalitions as there are fewer seats to work with. effectively rather than 120 there are 114 seats right now, but you still need 61 to form a coalition, if you get what I mean. If their voters instead didn't vote at all Netanyahu would have had a coalition.

And the pointlessness of it is why the split occurred, and why Ra'am managed to gain seats while the Joint list lost almost 2/3rds of their seats: Unlike the Joint List, Ra'am is now willing to work with the other parties and join coalitions, even Netanyahu's. Unfortunately for Netanyahu his other coalition members however refuse to sit with Ra'am, in part because they are an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and because they demand cancelling the nation-state law as a pre-requisite for joining a coalition.

Thanks I did not quite see the fewer available seats view. But it still seems weak. I may be an outsider looking in but hard to think sans the corruption issues Netanyahu would not have government now (or would have had in one of the last elections).

----

@sumskilz

"anti-Netanyahu coalition"

When you say it that way it seems like a a very weak potential deal one that could collapse as soon as Netanyahu were to be theoretically shuffled of the stage.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

"anti-Netanyahu coalition"

When you say it that way it seems like a a very weak potential deal one that could collapse as soon as Netanyahu were to be theoretically shuffled of the stage.

True, but with Neanyahu gone Likud could easily form a right-wing government by adding New Hope and Yamina to the bloc. The only thing preventing Israel from having its most right wing government, perhaps ever, is Mr.Benjamin Netanyahu.


Some interesting news meanwhile: The president has announced his intention to name the candidate who will first attempt to form a coalition next Wednesday, and the parties are fighting over who it should be. For the pro-Netanyahu camp the choice is easy: Netanyahu. For the anti-Netanyahu bloc however it's not quite as simple.
Yair Lapid, head of Yesh Atid (the largest party in the anti-Netanyahu block) insists it should be him, at least initially, even if he wouldn't be the prime minister just to deny Netanyahu the opportunity. Most of the block rallied behind him, but then there's Gideon Sa'ar of New Hope.
Sa'ar, whose parties performance was a huge letdown, insists the prime minister should be.. none other than Naftali Bennet, head of Yamina. Or at least or Bennet to be first in a rotation agreement with Lapid (and we've all seen how rotation agreements work out in Israeli politics).
What does the rest of the block have to say? You'd expect the most opposition from Meretz, the anti-settler party, who are in many ways the opposite of Yamina which is sometimes seen as a settler party, and indeed Meretz has announced that it will not join.. oh wait, my bad, they announced that they would be willing to recommend Bennet for prime minister.
Well, what does Lapid have to say? He states that he is willing to make painful concessions and not ruling out that he wouldn't even be the prime minister first in a rotation agreement. He just wants to make sure that it's not Netanyahu who gets the mandate from the president to form a coalition.
Oh.

What does this all mean? Well ladies and gentlemen, it seems likely that the prime minister (if there is one) will be Naftali Bennet. Now that's a shocking turn of events if I've ever seen one.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Netanyahu's term for forming a coalition has come and gone and today the president gave the task to opposition leader and head of Yesh Atid: Yair Lapid.
Lapid's only path to a coalition is a unity coalition he had already agreed to in principle that would include a rotation for the post of prime minister with Naftali Bennet, leader of Yamina. The remaining hurdles are due to Bennet demanding an equal share of power between the right wing parties of such coalition (Israel Beitenu, Yamina, Star Wars episode IV) and the centre-left (Yesh Atid, Labour, Meretz, Blue&White). The left is not so keen seeing as they'd be holding 38 seats vs the 20 of the right wing parties. Another issue is that it's not quite enough, as it would net 58 seats when the desired number is 61. This is where the Arab parties, especially Ra'am, come in: by abstaining from voting they could allow this coalition to have enough votes to form. Bennet meanwhile wants to leave the door open for other right wing parties, and the Ultra-Orthodox, to join the coalition later.

[enoch]

The sheer number of parties is awesome. I wish the US and most of Europe was like this. But people couldn't cope with it.

[Condottiere 40K]

Depends on how robust your democracy is, and how tolerant the electorate is of differing viewpoints.

[Cyclops]

Depends on how robust your democracy is, and how tolerant the electorate is of differing viewpoints.

In my country we like our politics pre-prepared. Nice neat parties, they match certain demographics, often a narrow slice of swinging voters determine elections because so most are rusted on. Now the bloody greens are complicating things and a few independents are asking us to think, seriously, we like to fuss about beer and coffee and the 6-6-6 rule not policy settings and macroeconomics.

Countries with all these little parties are the sort of people who like jigsaws and confetti, bloody intellectuals. We like football. Two teams, a winner and a loser. Keep it simple for us could you?