With the Israeli election roughly 2 months away, it promises to be an interesting one, already full of drama and twists. The election itself comes in an "interesting" timing. It was announced quite suddenly some time after one of the coalition members, the party "Israel Beitenu" (Israel our home) quit the coalition, leaving it in a precarious position with just 61 seats out of 120 in the Knesset (Israeli parliament). The coalition was one of the longest lasting in Israeli politics (with an average of an election every 2.9 years, Israel has one of the highest election frequencies in the OECD), and many suspect that it was called so as that it could be finished in time before the corruption investigation into prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu can be completed.
The scene is already a mess. On the former coalitions side of the political map we have the Likud, the party of prime minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, which is projected to earn a number of seats either slightly lower than their current (30) or preserve their strength, with some polls even providing the possibility of gaining a handful more seats.
The former coalition partner, "Habait hayehudi" (Jewish home) under Naftali Bennet plunged into chaos as its now former leader and his 2nd in command announced that they are leaving and the creation of a new party, "the new right". The party will supposedly distance itself from the former parties religious policies and concentrate on matters of security and the conflict. The former party, Jewish home, plunged even further into chaos when the person next in line, Uri Ariel, quit politics after he had lost the party primaries to Bezalel Smotrich, who is considered by many to be an extremist and who has had several controversies due to homophobic statements he had made in the past, and now doubt is cast as to whether the party will even manage to get seats in parliament, with some polls showing them not passing the voter threshold (3.25%).
Another coalition partner, the party "Kulanu" (all of us) under Moshe Kahlon is expected to lose a significant chunk of it's former power, with some polls showing them gaining as few as 4 seats (the minimum in Israeli politics) compared to the 10 they currently hold.
The two ultra orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (Sepharadi ultra-orthodox and Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox respectively) are projected to lose a few seats aswell, with Shas fighting for its life due to the fact that one of the former leaders of the party, Eli Yishai, had left the party and started his own, "Yahad" (Together) which during the last election fell about just short of the threshold to get into parliament, and many wonder whether they will get into parliament this time or not.
On the oppositions side, things are even more chaotic. The largest party, The Zionist Union, which dominated the opposition was the result of the merger of two parties, the Israeli Labour party and "Hatnuah" (the movement), however after the parties recent primaries and change in leadership the union was split after the new leader of the Labour, Avi Gabbay, announced out of the blue the ending of the partnership in front of live audience and reporters without even telling the surprised leader of Hatnuah, Tzipi Livni, beforehand, leaving her to sit in shock for the rest of the speech. Virtually all polls predict that Hatnuah will not pass the voter threshold and likely vanish from the political map, just like Livni's last party, Kadima. Labour too however is in trouble, projected to lose the majority of its power. While the zionist union held 24 seats, Labour is projected to win 6 seats.
Another opposition member, the United list, is also the subject of some drama. The party is the union of what used to be 3 Arab parties who joined forces after the voter threshold was raised some years ago. The party holds 13 seats in the current Knesset, but recently one of the primary former partners, Ahmad Tibi, announced that he is splitting off together with his party Ta'al, with both parties now projected to win 6 seats each.
But wait, you say. If all of those parties are projected to lose so many seats, where do they all go? Well, in come the new parties.
The biggest new kid on the block is the party "Hosen Le Israel" (resilience for Israel) led by former chief of staff for the IDF, Benni Gantz. Despite having not revealed any political stances up until very recently, the party polled highly and was projected to be the 2nd biggest after the election. The party gained even more support recently after the announcement of the merger of the party with another new party led by Moshe "Bugi" Yaalon, another former IDF chief of staff and former Likud member and defence minister in Netanyahu's government. After the merger Gantz finally revealed some of the party platform, promising to work towards a peace deal with the Palestinians while vowing to preserve a united Jerusalem, the "settlement blocks" (a common name for the largest settlement groups, meaning the abandonment of most smaller and isolated settlements)and vowing never to leave the Golan heights, placing him somewhere in the centre-right. The party is projected to earn about 25 seats or possibly more, meaning it is the greatest threat to Netanyahu's position as prime minister.
Another new party is "Gesher" (bridge), led by Orli Levi-Abaksis, was created after splitting off from Lieberman's "Israel Beitenu" sits on the edge with some projections showing it either not making the threshold, or making it just barely. However her odds seem better than Lieberman's, who according to many polls won't be returning to the Knesset.
Finally there is "Zehut"(identity) led by further Likud member Moshe Feiglin, Which is rarely projected to get into parliament, although it's leader promises to be the "surprise of the election". The party is a secular one, calling for legalisation of Marijuana and a free market.
With dramatic developments happening almost on a daily basis, the election promises to be an interesting one, with Netanyahu's future in question.
Explanation about the parties for the poll:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read: