The draw length of Ming Chinese crossbows becamed considerably shorter than the draw lengths of the earlier crossbows from the Song and Han dynasties. This would have made the Ming much less powerful than the crossbows of the earlier dynasties for the same draw force. Why would the Chinese make their crossbows so much less powerful?
The arguments I have seen put forward don't seem to stand up under close scrutiny. The Yao Kai Nu Ming crossbow had a dras force of up to 1041 lbs, and a prod span of 2 meters, with a 26 cm/10" powerstroke, but still had a short stock of 54 cm. So the argument that the Chinese triggers became simpler waw somehow the cause doesn't stand up - If you could make a trigger standup for 10" at a 1000 lbs, it will stand up for 20" at a 100 lbs. As far as I can tell, the Chinese did not adopt the long trigger levers you find on European crossbows, so the argument you could not place the trigger at the back of the stock for a longer draw does not seem valid.
Nor do guns seem the complete answer. Until you rifle the the barrel and had a tight fit, the old smooth bore muskets only had an effective range of around 100 yards, not because the ball wasn't powerful enough to reach further, but because they became too inaccurate to hit things further out. I see any evidence the Ming used rifled barrels with tight fitting musket balls. And matchlocks became inerfective in wet weather. A crossbow will still work it wet weather, even if it looses power. The Spanish still used steel crossbows for a century after the matchlocks were introduced, so for the early part of the Ming dynasty at least, before matchlocks were introduced, you should have seen more active use of crossbows than you do.
And with a 2 m prod, and a 1041 lbs draw, the Yao Kai Nu hardly small. While the Yao Kai Nu was as powerfu. as the most powerful handheld European crossbows, most of the other Ming crossbowss were far weaker. The Jue Zhang Nu had a draw of 390 lbs but only a 16 cm (6.3") draw lengrth, a draw length not longer than the European windlass crossbows which had much higher draw forces. The Han and Song had crossbows with comparably high draw forces, but much longer draw lengths, making them far more powerful. If you are going through the trouble of making something as larg as the Yao Kai Nu, why not just build some of the old Han style crossbows, and make them really powerful?
Perhaps the real reason we don't see crossbows as powerful as those in the Song dynasty is not that secret of making trigger mechanisms was lost, but the secret of making a prod with very high draw force, but also with a high draw length at the same. In European crossbows we see an inverse relationship between draw force and draw length - the higher the draw force, the shorter the draw length. Steel crossbows with very high draw force had shorter draw lengths than simple crossbows with lower draw forces. Stiffer materials materials are usually less flexible than less stiff materials. To make a prod with the draw length of a hand bow, but much greater draw force would be difficult without making the prod excessively large, and it might have required a secret that was lost by Ming times. Unlike the trigger mechanisms, which could be reversed engineered from old samples, once the secret of making stiff but flexible prods was lost, it could not be recaptured.
Another possibility is perhaps the Song/Han crossbows with the high draw force had much shorter draw lengths than we think. We know that some Han/Song Chinese crossbows had clearly much longer drawlengths than Ming and European crossbows, but perhaps those were only crossbows of lower draw forces. Perhaps the Song high force crossbows simply had less draw length, more comparable to the Ming Yao Kai Nu crossbow, in which case the mystery disappears. As I mentioned, there is an inverse relation between the draw force and draw length in European crossbows, and would not be surprising if a similar relation existed in the Han/Song crossbows.
It must be noted, that the Ming crossbows could have been more powerful than they were. If you just mounted a powerful 200 lbs hand bow, which the Ming could make, in a crossbos prod, and kept a 24" draw length, you could make a pretty powerful crossbow. Yet the Ming didn't seem to do that. The Ming went to the shorter draw lengths more typical of European crossbows but mostly without the high draw forces used by the medieval European war crossbows. Unless you have mechanical mechanisms like goats foot levers and windlasses with ropes and pulleys, it is hard to make high draw force crossbow with a short prod, and for whatever reason the Chinese did not used goat's lever or cranequin, or pulley windlass systems (the spoked wheel windlass used on siege crossbows would have been far too slow for a hand held crossbow). I am kind of surpised the Ming did not use some kind of windlass rope system like the Europeans for the Yao kai Nu - the draw length was short enough, and by the time you sat on the ground, carefully pulled back the string, then got up, I don't think it would be that much faster than using a pulley windlass similar to European crossbows. Did the Chinese know of the principle of mechanical advantages of using multiple pulleys? I haven't seen any pre-European contact Chinese illustrations showing the use of multiple pulleys, and if the Chinese weren't aware of mechanical advantage of multiple pulleys, that could explain the lack of use of windlasses with ropes and pulleys.