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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #1821
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Other than bribing the DUP to prop up May's strong and stable government, I concur with you Caratacus.
    A little harsh though, as I think we might both be overlooking the tree changing thing as well. That is sure to counter the SNP, except nobody told the marketing team, that there mostly fir trees up there.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  2. #1822
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post

    @ Dante Von Hespburg, I think Change.uk overestimated the urgency of stopping May's plans, including the belief that May had every intention to go for a no-deal Brexit. They could not advocate to be the party to stop May when the Tories were doing such a good job themselves.
    I think you're spot on here. It also leads onto an interesting question about the fall of May, i'm wondering just how much Remain/Soft MP's in the Conservatives and among the opposition parties are regretting not helping prop her up. I get this would be a massive call and present a huge number of difficulties for them politically, but they are playing with fire. While Labour hope for a snap election, it might also be the 'Tory 'scrap working protections' brexit they have feared, for potentially at least until 2022, depending on how well the Conservative new leader can fend off the pressure for a GE. For the remain parties like ChUK and Lib-dems, it also essentially is a big gamble, as if they can't force a government fall, then their looking towards the brexit that they have fought against. Change UK particularly are between a rock and a hard place, as its either topple the government, and face being wiped out as a party at a snap GE, or keep quiet while a potential 'hard brexiteer' PM, but gives them more time to prepare (for their inevitable wipe out ).

    Quote Originally Posted by Alex-ander View Post
    Lets suppose for a moment that all parties agree for a rerun of the referendum.
    One of two things happen (a tie is possible but very very unlikely)

    The result is the same we leave
    The result changes we stay in Europe

    If the result is the same and we leave will the remainers be happy (very unlikely) or demand another rerun maybe best of five refendums
    If the result changes and we will stay in Europe will the millions who voted leave be happy no way they will demand another referendum.

    So where does it end.

    This is exactly it and perfectly said. Essentially it doesn't end, and now will not due to neither side having a sustainable majority and from the admittedly little that can be taken from the EU election results, at least among 36-38% of the British electorate, nearly 80% of them have decided that compromise sucks, and that either full remain or a 'true' leave or what is needed, with no time for the compromises (as bad as they arguably might be- i won't get into that ) as put forward by Labour or the Conservatives.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Wandering Storyteller View Post
    Many thanks Dante for your well informed information,

    However too all other commentators - what if this is a whole sticth up? I remember seeing a photo where Nigel was dining with Boris Johnson Father, Rees Mogg, and I believe BJ.

    They will put BJ as he has the best chance of beating Nigel. I'd say this is resonable enough, but even BJ is no fool. He can defeat Jezza yes, but there is one problem.

    BJ wants to give Nigel a cabinet position. Nigel wants to be part of the govt negotiation's team.

    Honestly I'll tell you this is all to put Nigel Farage as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. There must have been some back-door dealing. Feel free to proveme wrong.

    If Nigel gets a cabinet position (which would be a VERY big STEP) then what happens to the Brexit Party? I saw their twitter account when launched, and trust me they've included a lot of minorities - me thinks Farage is aiming to transform Brexit Party into a mainstream populist party. The Peterborough by-election is next week, and tbh - Lets see if Nigel Brexit Party DOES win.

    All of this is meant to take Nigel as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. You may even see a coalition between BP and Con, but unlikely. How Nigel will get a cabinet position - that will only depend on BJ. BJ and Nigel are very friendly with each other even if they have a facade of attacking each other.

    A bit bad for Jezza - he doesn't support a second referendum but its actually Tom Watson and Emily Thornberry - the self appointed messiah of the Labour Party that have been fudging on Brexit. Jezza has been forced to support something he doesn't believe in. Can Jezza now repeat the successof 2017? Hangs in balance.

    Labour's vote share wasn't that bad. They still retained 10 as opposed to Cons that got wiped out and now there's 3. 3 seats.

    And Gove? That idiot destroyed UK education system. The majority of the contenders of the Conservatives comproise of May's cabinet. Snakes. BJ had the common sense when he knew what was going to happen. BJ will become next PM - but it will be very difficult to avoid GE which is what Labour and Brexit Party want. If it happens, Labour will fight BJ, not Nigel Farage. Both parties want a core of the Conservative vote.

    Prove me wrong!
    Most welcome mate, likewise some very interesting questions and analysis here, It'll be interesting the responses.

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    All your points are valid indeed, but still based on assumptions. The pattern of voting for Greens and LibDems follows eactly the same pattern seen across Europe. So any claim that their share of the vote increased directly because of remain voters, can still be challenged. As such attempts to lump that support into creating a graph charting the outcome of the election into Remain and Leave, as I'm seeing on the BBC website, is pure distortion.

    Nevertheless I acknowledge there are distinct divisions amongst the electorate between leave and remain, it's enevitable. But the one unifying factor is that people are deeply unhappy with politicians and the political system as it stands. Voting for a party which completely ignored its core pledge of changing the system in favour of proportional representation, when it had its chance in a coalition government, will not change anything. Their support will quickly fall away, as it always does. Look at the local election results in 2017 immediately following the referendum, A time which they also voiced their objection to Brexit.
    Indeed its fair to say i am too in my analysis, and i'd quickly reiterate your position is a valid one here. I think this will be the difficulty with this referendum, especially as what a lot of people are ignoring is that the electoral turnout is reported by some sources as low as 36%, though i'm thinking 38% is more likely based on what i've seen earlier. Either way, its clear that these are a specific type of the electorate, very different to a GE crowd (which is far larger), and indeed not close to all those who turned out for the brexit referendum itself. My feeling is that mainly the guys who turned out are firm remainers or brexiteers, or who care seriously about brexit (which is an assumption of course). Add to this that both sides can and are spinning victory, and that parties who do not advocate a brexit compromise all surged, we're looking as you say, at a very split group of the wider electorate at least. So its rather difficult overall i'd say for both sides to do as their doing currently, but the spin will be rampant for all its worth (partly because as i saw this morning with an interview with Raab iirc? (its a bit of a blur), that the Conservatives are not going to give into any of Farage's demands for representation in their negotiating team, so there's not much practically that the remain or leave 'winners' of the EU election can do on Parliament directly, and with its value as an opinion poll contested (and whether we agree or not, its more the perception of it for both sides) by both sides claiming victory, its not really helped brexit that much. Though i'm sure as we're seeing, Labour will be nudged a bit to 'second referendum' (which Corbyn wants to avoid i suspect), and the Tory 'brexiteer' candidates will achieve a little more force for their appeal (enough force to stave off Hammond and co making merry hell? I suspect not).

    But aye, overall, you hold a fair take on things here too, and i massively agree with you're point about the unifying factor being a wish for change among the electorate to the political system and how the country has been run. The lib-dems are to a similar extent the brexit party are indeed protest votes i suspect in terms of gaining this high a vote share, i think we'll see at a GE especially both will fall away- Lib-dems as you say, people will remember they are essentially 'Status quo' and helped create the current issues in a large way, while the brexit party will shed votes when it starts taking positions on the domestic situation, it currently has cross-spectrum support, but when questions arise about NHS, welfare, taxes, privitization, austerity, working protections for the 'gig economy', its going to be a tough time to retain this cross-spectrum unity.

    In the end i think this all comes back to Labour and the Conservatives as being the final and only two who can make meaningful decisions on brexit, but also whose real danger comes from supporting the status quo (the counter argument of course is that Corbyn is a radical, but he's not been in a position to prove that, and i think once in office Labour will indeed struggle to fulfil many of the 'campaign' promises they've laid out- nationalization, sure there's a clear plan, but the extent needs to be stable. Student fees and loans? As a heavily indebted postgrad i actually think this was a promise too far, There is no way the state can afford 'free tuition', while also having British Universities retain the role they currently play- as the drivers of research (and thus most economic potential). If you ever want to be shocked, compared Harvard's budget to Cambridge's or Oxfords...we already are not even in the same league. So aye, it'll be interesting to see if the UK will (as it needs to) change course and offer something new to people on both sides of the referendum, who as you rightly say are clearly crying out for it.

    I looked at the voting share right across Scotland regions, and it unfortunately shows a consistent rise in support for the SNP at the expense of Labour. You have to say that unless the Unionists are able to galvanise behind a single party in Scotland to counter that trend, Scottish independence will be a distinct likelihood. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives can offer that.

    This is indeed the issue, and i think with hindsight, its something that brexit was always going to force. The 'Unionist' parties by splitting amongst themselves and then also going at each other present a real issue for unionists, who are at a disadvantage to put it simply (in my view at least as a Unionist Scot) compared to the SNP, as they take interest in issues effecting the entirety of the UK- so will divide between remain, leave and then into the usual factions of remain federalists, remain reformers, leave soft, leave harder, leave hardest etc, while Indy supporters are all 'Sod the UK'. So yeah, Labour and the Tories have failed, the lib-dems do have a presence traditionally, but not a large one, and their are no 'Unionist' parties on the horizon for Scotland, who do tend to have a slightly different outlook on 'left and right' (If anyones looked at the Scottish Tories, you'll be forgiven for believing they are more like the lib-dems/a European Conservative party, than their southern counterparts). Its quite a trick situation we're in basically.

    Get some rest. I stayed up until 4am, but I'm used to working in the wee small hours.
    You have my absolute awe and respect for being able to cope with that . I'll follow your advice i think after falling asleep in the library for a solid 2 hours or so earlier (to my shame!), its clear i'm needing it.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; May 27, 2019 at 01:12 PM.
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  3. #1823

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Jezza's jumped off the fence and supports a second referendum now. Poor Chukka is left with nothing to show for his desertion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...r-voter-exodus
    Last edited by mongrel; May 27, 2019 at 03:17 PM.
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  4. #1824

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    What worries me is the political groups wanting to destroy democracy because they couldn't get what they want. Nobody seems to be thinking about the grave ramifications of a second referendum and what it actualy represents.

    It's not just the referendum, May won a vote of no confidence so the anti-May crowd blatantly fudged the rules to force out. She should of been safe for a year but then told "quit or we'll keep running votes till you lose."

    It's the same with the remain camp, they want to keep running referendums till they get the result they want. If they do get a second one and they win by 1 or 2 percent, they will say "right that's it, you've had the referendum" but then the leave camp can, with now established precedent, say "wait we have new information, we'll run it again."

    Also a second referendum means we will have to let the Scots have a second one and the merry go round never stops.

    Brexit has destroyed British faith in any democratic process.

  5. #1825

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    What worries me is the political groups wanting to destroy democracy because they couldn't get what they want. Nobody seems to be thinking about the grave ramifications of a second referendum and what it actualy represents.

    It's not just the referendum, May won a vote of no confidence so the anti-May crowd blatantly fudged the rules to force out. She should of been safe for a year but then told "quit or we'll keep running votes till you lose."

    It's the same with the remain camp, they want to keep running referendums till they get the result they want. If they do get a second one and they win by 1 or 2 percent, they will say "right that's it, you've had the referendum" but then the leave camp can, with now established precedent, say "wait we have new information, we'll run it again."

    Also a second referendum means we will have to let the Scots have a second one and the merry go round never stops.

    Brexit has destroyed British faith in any democratic process.
    Wasn't the Brexit vote part of the cycle of 'running referendums till they get the result they want'. Ted Heath and Harold Wilson held EEC referenda, why is this one sacred?
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

    "Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  6. #1826

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Wasn't the Brexit vote part of the cycle of 'running referendums till they get the result they want'. Ted Heath and Harold Wilson held EEC referenda, why is this one sacred?
    Put your idealogical partisanship on the backburner for a moment and seriously think this through.

    For a start we have only had one referendum on the old EEC and that was back in 1975. The EU changed and evolved and has become something completely different to what was voted for in 1975.

    Secondly that result was respected.

    In this case the remainers are trying to re-run the result before it's even been inacted. It's a blatant violation of democratic principles and people are being too partisan and the usual "I hate Tories so I'll support everything opposite the Tories without thinking it through.".

    Take Labour, they have happily thrown their leave voting heartlands to the dogs to follow this stupid "must oppose anything Tories support!" policy. If you get this precious referendum, do you think the next general election will be a labour win without those northern heartlands labor betrayed?

    Labour lost Scotland and now they will lose the north. This disgusts me, my Grandfather was an old labour man, back when the party gave a damn about the working man and not this champagne socialist circlejerk they have become.

    Politics today has become so extremist and partisan people can't even see what they have become. For crying out loud Mongrel, you publicly support throwing things at political figures you don't like, what happens when a right wing supporter throws and egg or milkshake at Corbyn?

    This madness has to stop or democracy in the UK will effectively end as voter apathy will stop most people voting and only the extremists from BOTH side will get candidates in.

  7. #1827
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Right diagnosis there @95thRifleman, but its the wrong cause. We already are and will continue to be stuck in the circle of 'brexit', even if we leave the EU, and indeed even if a second referendum is called. The referendum result was close and divisive, that would normally be fine, but instead of seeking compromise MP's banded together in their various remain or brexit camps and dug in. Not one of them bothered to create a groundswell of support that could equate to a sustainable parliamentary or electoral majority. The Rhetoric was the most damaging i can actually recall, the frequent use of the word 'traitors', the government attempting to weight committees that it traditionally as a minority government has no right to, dodging parliamentary questions and for the first year or more putting brexit under a cloud of secrecy aware from scrutiny. I'm not sure if people realize how broken Parliament has been because the government started ignoring its historic conventions (which are as close as rules as you'll get in the Westminster system). The unguarded rhetoric used by both leave and remain regarding each other also did not help. The press were and have been incredibly unhelpful and distorting throughout (as i said a few posts ago- they have 0 understanding of trade deals or the wider picture and instead provide a simplistic outlook that politicians also endorse because its 'easier').

    So you've had this whole cycle of polarization, because neither side were prepared to compromise on brexit, and from these EU election results, neither are the electorate who voted this time around.. Their are two fairly even camps regarding brexit, and neither of them has a 'sustainable' majority- for instance to use my example again. We brexit with Boris, the Tories in this case are likely to bring down their own party (As reported yesterday), snap election, Labour are set to win it, especially with the brexit party for one of the first times, dividing the Conservative vote share, which while not getting them any seats due to FPTP would mean the Conservatives already behind, lose potential voters they can ill afford. Corbyn's Labour win it (fairly likely currently), will they stick with Boris's WTO brexit? Nope, they'll implement their manifesto and go seek a customs union with regulatory alignment with the EU.

    Now those 'brexit party' voters are annoyed, this isn't the WTO they wanted (though it is still a brexit), is there scope for Farage or the Conservatives to re-represent that? Indeed. So they'll aim to try and get out the Customs Union and forge their own vision.

    None of this indeed requires even a second referendum (whose result would likely be as you say, a few percentage over the other part- be it remain or leave). Political parties will and indeed already have made brexit a political football that will disrupt Britain for the foreseeable future. Its even highly likely that if the Tories manage to hold on to 2022 somehow, that we'll still see a different party sweep in, and again it could even mean rejoining the EU, or going for single market Norway style.

    This is then made worse by the rubbish talked by both sides during the referendum campaign itself. Given voting demographics, to ensure we do not rejoin the EU within 10 years (which is actually rather likely, and i think would be a disaster), The expectations of brexit need to be met, it needs to prove it is a benefit to Britain. There has thus far been inadequate progress on other trade talks (not deals, just talks as with Japan- but also in terms of the content), WTO schedule is still an up in the air issue thanks to Argentina, Russia the USA and co, preparation for a WTO brexit is non-existent. Any economic hit from brexit (even if not caused by brexit, but say caused by the upcoming recession courtesy of Africa, or the rise of unacceptable protectionist demands- like the USA demanding Britain open its NHS to the market) is currently open to being spun as Brexit, and the government who delivers brexit's fault, as all either side of the referendum talked about was 'economic doom' vs 'roaring global britain, with more money to spend in areas that matter'- neither of these positions are true, but the UK domestically is doing poorly and is perceived as thus by the electorate (hence the cries for change, and the majority support across left-right divide for nationalizations etc). Given that younger voters predominantly support currently EU membership, its not going to wash when brexit has been so poorly prepared for (particularly WTO terms) when their prospects are screwed over even more and the easily blameable candidate is brexit (It won't be, as there are major structural issues to the UK's economy, brexit potentially might exacerbate these, but not 'cause' them- however try explaining complex economics to the public , its easier to blame clear events and resonates far better among them), we are looking at the lack of a sustainable majority for any party being a real issue- For leavers, because it means any brexit is time-limited and politically flawed (Due to polarization meaning any economic issues, can and will be easily jumped upon quite convincingly by the polarized 'other' side), but also remainers, who are so polarized that they will take us back into the EU more than likely, which will probably come replete with requirements for the Euro and the loss of our privileged position regarding opt-outs and rebate- but again that's complex politics that the majority of MP's and the electorate seemingly have had no time for currently.

    This is all possible, all of it because there is no sustainable majority for any option currently, as none of the different factions have even bothered to attempt to compromise and create a broad consensus- in Parliament, or more importantly among the electorate, and now its rather too late as the polarization, fed by their rhetoric has been established.

    So your on the right line of thinking (something i raised a year ago ), but your looking at the wrong cause, a second referendum is a symptom of this existing problem, not a new potential cause of division. The Westminister system itself (where voters lose control of their vote and how MPs interpret it in a referendum straight after their ballot has been cast- see how Labour, Conservatives, Lib-dems, SNP and the factions among the big two all used the first referendum to give themselves very different mandates regarding brexit, the other thing is that FPTP protects these guys quite significantly from the fallout of a single issue, both by FPTP- hence the Brexit Party's issues here, but also domestic issues tend to triumph and significantly water down brexit as 2017 saw), as well as the failure of MP's from all factions to build a sustainable majority and compromise means they've screwed over Britain politically rather significantly. While maybe not having a second referendum would be one more issue out of mind, the damage is already done.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Well, yes, being an associate member of some group usually entails something different than being a 'full' member of the group.
    Would a more correct statement be that: Norway is an 'associate member' not a 'full member' of the EU.?
    Sorry here, i missed this question.

    You could indeed fairly say that, however as noted, being an 'associate member' is not being a 'member of the EU' by any stretch of the imagination. Again Norway explicitly rejected EU membership. Similarly creating a customs union with the EU (As Corbyn and May wanted) is being affiliated with the EU, but not a member of it. Its a fair stance for a leave voter to have of course- that we should 'leave everything'- its why some leave voters want us to also leave the ECHR. However, leaving the EU, simply means we cease to be a full member and partake in the decision making process of the EU.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; May 28, 2019 at 04:45 AM.
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  8. #1828
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    In fairness Dante it was made clear before the referendum - and the Prime Minister said this - that a leave vote meant leaving the single market. Making our own trade deals also means leaving the customs union.





    They just cannot accept the result of the referendum.
    Last edited by Aexodus; May 28, 2019 at 06:07 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Makes me think when I share my porridge with Cyclops Jnr every morning what I'm really doing is celebrating twin genocide-by-replacement events. "The oats represent the Borging of Mesolithic Europeans, the milk is for the Yamnaya rapist-warriors, and the salt is the tears of their victims. We add honey at the end because screw the bees, right?"

  9. #1829

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    Put your idealogical partisanship on the backburner for a moment and seriously think this through.

    For a start we have only had one referendum on the old EEC and that was back in 1975. The EU changed and evolved and has become something completely different to what was voted for in 1975.

    Secondly that result was respected.

    In this case the remainers are trying to re-run the result before it's even been inacted. It's a blatant violation of democratic principles and people are being too partisan and the usual "I hate Tories so I'll support everything opposite the Tories without thinking it through.".

    Take Labour, they have happily thrown their leave voting heartlands to the dogs to follow this stupid "must oppose anything Tories support!" policy. If you get this precious referendum, do you think the next general election will be a labour win without those northern heartlands labor betrayed?

    Labour lost Scotland and now they will lose the north. This disgusts me, my Grandfather was an old labour man, back when the party gave a damn about the working man and not this champagne socialist circlejerk they have become.

    Politics today has become so extremist and partisan people can't even see what they have become. For crying out loud Mongrel, you publicly support throwing things at political figures you don't like, what happens when a right wing supporter throws and egg or milkshake at Corbyn?

    This madness has to stop or democracy in the UK will effectively end as voter apathy will stop most people voting and only the extremists from BOTH side will get candidates in.

    Oh yes we joined following a vote in a Sovereign Parliament.The Sovereign Parliament Brexit is supposed to revere. Well we had a referendum in 1975, that was good enough. Yes the EU evolved since, but what exactly is the emergency that requires Brexit now? Talk of so called democratic principles is just so much bollocks. Parliament is sovereign and as we have witnessed there is simply no majority for no - deal Brexit. The madness as far as I see it is wasting years of Parliamentary time and taxpayer's on a failed project to the near exclusion of everything else.


    Did I publically support the milkshaking of certain politicians or did I merely report on it? The fact you can't get this simple point right must mean that there are some obstacles preventing you from having a grasp of what unicorn-chasing is doing to political discourse in the UK.

    And what would happen if someone throws an egg at Corbyn? Nothing , given the result of the last egg throwing incident. I can remind you however that Jo Cox was murdered.

    Bored of the waving of the working class granddad flag. Brexit is the idea of a chauffeur-driven financier, financed by a mega rich businessman.




    If we need Brexit it needs doing properly. Than can only be done if this tainted excercise is scrapped and , after a suitable interval, the process is worked properly like any other major policy change.

    Rather tired of politics being treated like some kind of cult. I prefer the old days when both major parties dealt with issues that workers actually should give a damn about, like eradicating poverty, ignorance, disease and want. What workers do not want is a vulture capitalist's Brexit.
    Last edited by mongrel; May 28, 2019 at 12:23 PM.
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  10. #1830
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    The fella who threw an egg at corbyn was jailed for 30 days.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Makes me think when I share my porridge with Cyclops Jnr every morning what I'm really doing is celebrating twin genocide-by-replacement events. "The oats represent the Borging of Mesolithic Europeans, the milk is for the Yamnaya rapist-warriors, and the salt is the tears of their victims. We add honey at the end because screw the bees, right?"

  11. #1831

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    The fella who threw an egg at corbyn was jailed for 30 days.
    Rightfully so. Besides an egg wasn't going to knock him off the fence he was sitting on over the last 3 years.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

    "Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  12. #1832

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    The workers voted to leave, most of the capitalist elite are the ones wanting to stay in the EU......

  13. #1833
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Actually come to think of it, is there a socio-economic analysis of the 2016 referendum? As in, what way did the working class, middle class, upper class vote etc, urban v rural, progressive v liberal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Makes me think when I share my porridge with Cyclops Jnr every morning what I'm really doing is celebrating twin genocide-by-replacement events. "The oats represent the Borging of Mesolithic Europeans, the milk is for the Yamnaya rapist-warriors, and the salt is the tears of their victims. We add honey at the end because screw the bees, right?"

  14. #1834

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Actually come to think of it, is there a socio-economic analysis of the 2016 referendum? As in, what way did the working class, middle class, upper class vote etc, urban v rural, progressive v liberal.
    I think it would be interesting reading.

    If brexit was this far-right, elitist conspiracy that the left re trying to paint then the tories wold of pushed it through by now.

  15. #1835
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I suspect that unless only a Brexit by Brexiteers, will resolve things for leave voters. Under any other circumstance there will be a Farage blaming whatever on Brexit not having been 'done right', not Brexit being a bad idea to begin with.

    And it will be bad, I have little doubt. It doesn't take much to push small to medium sized businesses under. These are the ones that have neither the means to prepare for Brexit even if they could predict from what direction the cascade of knock-on effects is going to hit them when the whole economy gets disrupted across the board.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  16. #1836
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    I think it would be interesting reading.

    If brexit was this far-right, elitist conspiracy that the left re trying to paint then the tories wold of pushed it through by now.
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/0...voted-and-why/


    • The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU.
    and here is a breakdown of what the social grades mean:



    So essentially, managers, administrators, and CEOs voted mostly to remain. Supervisors, junior managers, clerical officers (bottom rung civil servants), and ‘professionals’ which I assume includes junior doctors, desk workers etc were more or less 50/50. And that ends the middle class.

    As we get to C2, D (the working class) and E (working class + pensioners) we see more brexit support, with 64% of C2 and DE groups voting to leave.

    Interestingly, just over 50% of voters on a private pension voted to leave, whereas much more, two thirds of pensioners on state pensions voted to leave.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Makes me think when I share my porridge with Cyclops Jnr every morning what I'm really doing is celebrating twin genocide-by-replacement events. "The oats represent the Borging of Mesolithic Europeans, the milk is for the Yamnaya rapist-warriors, and the salt is the tears of their victims. We add honey at the end because screw the bees, right?"

  17. #1837
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    In fairness Dante it was made clear before the referendum - and the Prime Minister said this - that a leave vote meant leaving the single market. Making our own trade deals also means leaving the customs union.





    They just cannot accept the result of the referendum.
    I do appreciate that mate, but i refer you to my previous posts on this to you that are above somewhere... . It wasn't at all clear during the referendum, the message was confused, and see the BBC link i posted where a majority/near majority of brexit voters would not mind/supported single market access back in 2017.

    So its not really credible now (as indeed we're seeing among the Tory leadership contest) for a person to try and take the 'whole' leave voters and say 'they clearly wanted this', and part of the issue is you can't, and also the second part of that issue is that various leave and remain politicians are trying to do exactly that- fake a mandate...well in fairness, they are interpreting the referendum mandate as is their prerogative as MP's, they can and will spin it how they want. The issue being after that, they haven't actually built a 'sustainable majority' (or even an unstable one...) and thus whatever brexit/remain plan they've sought to implement collapses either shortly after they've relinquished office...or indeed during. Its why at its core and without the political emphasis, 'a' brexit is defined by leaving a decision making role within the EU, and that is it. Norway with its single market is not part of the EU, and voted against EU membership.

    Moreover if we define being a 'rule-taker' as not achieving 'brexit' (which is the argument i think you are essentially using- that the EU will have control over elements of British sovereignty- which i get), then essentially the UK will not be able to make deals with the EU, US, China or other 'trade blocs' in any major form, as it will all involve the UK giving up elements of soverignty, with arbitration courts being set up between those trade partners (that historically are weighted towards the larger country anyway), or in terms of agreements that go into complex detail (such as the one we hope to get with the US), it will involve the US dictating the limits the British government can intervene in certain areas of its own economy, what standards it can and cannot have, even indeed the extent it can protect its own public goods.

    So adopting the position that Britain cannot be a 'rule-taker' is a difficult one as it opens up any future trade deals to a level of expectation that Britain just cannot deliver (Unless we avoid such detailed entanglements- which is possible, but economically painful, requiring a fundamental and major shift in our economy away from the global integration its been pursuing and towards a form of 'achievable autarky'- which is something no British political party is willing to try and achieve for obvious reasons).

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    Actually come to think of it, is there a socio-economic analysis of the 2016 referendum? As in, what way did the working class, middle class, upper class vote etc, urban v rural, progressive v liberal.
    There has been attempts as far as i recall, but naturally in the current brexit environment, no one liked their analysis . Was it Manchester Uni and Cambridge who did the one on class, and also there was another that i used years ago somewhere in this thread that highlighted the impact that austerity had had on creating a groundswell of people demanding change. This report was disputed fairly at the time as it implied that a significant portion of brexiteer voters did not really care about the EU, but hated the current political establishment and what it had done to their prospects, opportunities and communities.

    There are further reports i've only seen with passing glance that highlight as others have indeed identified here, that brexit was a strong anti-establishment vote across the spectrum from people fed up with what can be loosely termed 'neoliberalism'. Its more than just the usual rhetoric of 'left-behind' citizens, but more that universally, people were crying out for change- more than just austerity and the financial crash, it had deep connotations for the rise of the automated 'gig economy' and the decrease in social mobility and rise in wealth inequality that had been brewing for a while, but was brought starkly to the fore by the post 2008 environment.

    If anyone has access to JSTOR they should probably be up there by now, if not i'll try if i get the time to track them down again, though no promises, usually i'll just re-find them during the course of my readings.

    I think also for non-academic analysis (i.e. not pretentiously published in a journal, but available to all) i'm sure there are tons of this on economic or sociologist blogs. The issue here is that unlike the academic papers, brexit is 'too raw' to not have a load of bias The academic papers deal with this by trying to take the 'political angle' out of it mainly... which is also an issue, when i think its directly involved- for instance, without a Conservative government, desperate to get a majority and worried they may never achieve one, they needed those extra UKIP votes as at the time, 'New Labour' was i agree with Caratacus earlier, only 'down' during the coalition because they successfully spun the financial crash as being their direct fault to voters, a fantastic piece of political work sure, but it wouldn't last long, and bearing in mind the Conservatives had been out of a majority since 1997, it was a terrifying prospect it could slip from their grasp.

    I think we'll have to wait another couple of years post-brexit for a less charged study alas.

    EDIT: Kudos for those statistics posted above though, i'm devouring those down
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; May 28, 2019 at 04:17 PM.
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  18. #1838

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/0...voted-and-why/




    and here is a breakdown of what the social grades mean:



    So essentially, managers, administrators, and CEOs voted mostly to remain. Supervisors, junior managers, clerical officers (bottom rung civil servants), and ‘professionals’ which I assume includes junior doctors, desk workers etc were more or less 50/50. And that ends the middle class.

    As we get to C2, D (the working class) and E (working class + pensioners) we see more brexit support, with 64% of C2 and DE groups voting to leave.

    Interestingly, just over 50% of voters on a private pension voted to leave, whereas much more, two thirds of pensioners on state pensions voted to leave.
    I wonder how the far left will try to spin this one.

  19. #1839
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    I wonder how the far left will try to spin this one.
    They claim that voters were hoodwinked by racism. It’s not spin, they genuinely believe it.

    Vote Leave relied on racism

    Britain’s imperial fantasies have given us Brexit

    https://solidarity-us.org/site01/atc/184/p4771/
    The malevolent genius of the Leave campaign was that it managed to go one step further and direct the anger of many previous working-class targets of derision at the even more vulnerable immigrants.

    The findings of the major polls taken during and after the referendum vote reveal strong xenophobic and anti-immigrant currents among Leave voters. When asked in the largest poll if they felt something was a force for “good” or “ill,” of those Leave voters who answered the question two-thirds thought multiculturalism a “force for ill” and 82% found immigration also “ill.”
    (3)
    The YouGov exit poll revealed similar attitudes, though slightly less severe, with 65% of Leave voters saying immigration was “bad” for the country, while 62% of Remain voters thought it “good.” Whatever the shortcomings of polls, the margins make it clear that anti-immigration sentiment was a major factor in the Brexit vote and not entirely absent among Remain voters.

    Dave Prentice the head of UNISON, the UK’s largest public employee union, argued that the entire campaign was “typified by hatred, vitriol and misinformation.” Weeks before the vote, Unison condemned the official (mostly Conservative) “Vote Leave” campaign for the “racist, xenophobic rhetoric employed by some leading campaigners for Brexit.” This included the claim that Turkey was about to join the EU, meant to stoke anti-Muslim prejudice.


    They also said that because most leave voters were middle class, most middle class voted leave.

    Who were the Daily Mail’s “quiet people of Britain” who voted for Brexit? Of the four nations that make up the UK, England (53.4%) and Wales (52.5%) voted Leave, while Scotland (62%) and Northern Ireland (56%) chose Remain.

    London favored Remain by almost 60%, as did other English cities with significant or large working-class populations, including Liverpool, Manchester, Leicester, and Leeds. A couple narrowly squeezed by for one side or the other, such as Newcastle for Remain (50.5%) and Birmingham for Leave (50.4%). Perhaps most interesting, however, is the social breakdown of the Brexit vote.


    Polling showed that the “Blue Collar,” skilled and unskilled lower-paid working class voted by 64% in favor of Leave compared to 51% of “Middle” class and 43% of “Upper” and “Upper Middle” class voters. This is usually the basis for seeing this as a working-class rebellion. But while the working class, defined here as manual skilled, unskilled and unemployed workers, make up 46% of the adult working-age population, they composed only 41.7% of the Leave vote.

    Economically well off upper- and upper-middle-class voters compose less than a quarter of the adult population, but counted for over a third of the Leave vote — not that far behind “the workers.” The “Middle Class” made up a quarter of Brexit voters, slightly less than their 31% of the adult population, but possibly enough to tip the balance toward “Brexit.”

    In short, the so-called “Revolt Against the Rich” came heavily from the “Upper” and richer social stratum itself, reinforced by much of the “Middle” class. Together, those from the upper half of society composed almost 60% of the Leave vote.

    This is shoddy projection and incredibly stupid. They literally divided the working class leave vote over the total leave vote, failing to realise that the middle class is over represented among leave voters, because middle class voters turn out more and are overrepresented among ALL voters. I say this as someone from a middle class family who all vote at every election.

    By that logic, every vote is middle class supported. In fact, they fail to mention that while working class voters make up 41% of the leave vote (according to Ashcroft polling data) they make up 24% of the remain vote.

    The Libertarian Left on the other hand back the idea that working classes support Brexit.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/0...ss-revolt/amp/
    So, despite what Mason, Campbell and Co might want us to believe, social class was one of the biggest determiners as to how people voted. Social classes A and B voted 59 per cent to Remain whereas social classes D and E backed Leave by a massive 64 per cent. Despite their efforts to portray leaving the EU as a narrowly elite, white, male project, the beliefs and ideas that drove so many of us to vote Leave – a desire for greater democracy and national sovereignty, to take control of our own country and destiny – do not favour one particular demographic. They are universal values and working-class people have most to gain by fighting for them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Makes me think when I share my porridge with Cyclops Jnr every morning what I'm really doing is celebrating twin genocide-by-replacement events. "The oats represent the Borging of Mesolithic Europeans, the milk is for the Yamnaya rapist-warriors, and the salt is the tears of their victims. We add honey at the end because screw the bees, right?"

  20. #1840

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Did I publically support the milkshaking of certain politicians or did I merely report on it? The fact you can't get this simple point right must mean that there are some obstacles preventing you from having a grasp of what unicorn-chasing is doing to political discourse in the UK.
    You called for more of it:
    "Milkshakes all round."
    https://www.twcenter.net/forums/show...1#post15789791

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