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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #1701
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    May continues the political ineptitude- despite essentially now being able to pull a 'Peel' in regards to brexit (Work with opposition MP's). She for whatever reason has decided that actually she wants Conservative support and unity (Despite it being clear now that she does not have long left in office, and also that Tory unity will be ruined regardless as their is no current successor candidate who could unify them, indeed Boris or a hard brexiteer in her place would see Tory remainers leave the party which would force a GE essentially https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...aab-ITV-Peston)

    So May has pulled her bill (for now- though other newspapers report its probably gone for good)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48374841

    And apparently the 1922 committee have held another vote (It seems to be once a month now this happens) on if they should change Tory party rules, to allow a VONC to be called again so soon (iirc its a years time limit between them)- this is a dangerous move though, as again bearing in any replacement candidate isn't going to be able to unify the party- if it passed, there would be a key tool to remove a PM the party did not like, very easily, or more likely- its threat to be brandished as a political weapon.

    The reason why i don't comment on if the vote has passed or not, is because while its already been held, they have not opened the results yet. They are using it as a threat against May when they meet her later as they demand her to 'speed up' her departure. It could be indeed the Party has voted to not change the rules, in which case they will have 0 ability to actually do anything.
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  2. #1702
    The Wandering Storyteller's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Nigel's going to have a smashing night isn't he?

    The man just destroyed whatever shattered reputation the Tories and Labour held.

    He didn't even need to do anything!





















































  3. #1703

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    I don't understand the logic of May floating a second referendum days before the EU vote, as it will only drive undecided leave voters to embrace the Brexit party. At the same time, the inability of the Remainers to coalesce around a single party in this election is baffling to me.
    Remainers who still think the referendum can be overturned are split between those who want to keep playing for time pretending to negotiate with the EU (some Labour and most of the Conservatives); those who want another referendum, which will be rigged to omit a genuine Leave option (some Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP); and those who are brazen enough to simply revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit (CUKs all of a sudden).

    There is a tiny caucus of honourable Remainers who accept the result and wish it to be carried out, but I don't see many of those. They're certainly not the most vocal.

  4. #1704
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Danny Kennedy by the way, is one of those who voted remain, his party the Ulster Unionist Party also publicly supported remain. However, I don’t see them calling for Brexit to be stopped.

    The UUP is fielding veteran Danny Kennedy as its candidate.

    The former Stormont minister, who lost his seat at the last assembly election, is hoping to succeed Jim Nicholson, who has retired.

    The party said a no-deal Brexit has to be avoided, and it is against a second referendum.


    It says any fresh poll on EU membership would be "a travesty for British democracy".

    Mr Kennedy told journalists that after Brexit there should not be a border in the Irish Sea, or a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

    In the EU referendum of 2016, the former MLA, like his party, backed remain.

    He said people now need to move on.
    He told the BBC: "I am at heart a democrat, I am at heart a unionist. And I know I can represent all of the people of Northern Ireland. I know I can represent those who in the past voted to remain and those who voted to leave.

    "That debate is over. We have to concentrate on what works best for Northern Ireland."


    Even Vince Cable was against a second referendum, saying it was ‘disrespectful to voters’ in 2016 the very same week that People’s Vote was launched.



    I recall he started being against a second referendum, then he talked about a confirmatory vote on the deal, now he’s openly saying ‘stop Brexit’.

    Like Danny Kennedy, you don’t need to be a Brexiteer to point out this sheer hypocrisy and shamelessness.
    Last edited by Aexodus; May 23, 2019 at 09:17 AM.
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  5. #1705

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    May continues the political ineptitude- despite essentially now being able to pull a 'Peel' in regards to brexit (Work with opposition MP's). She for whatever reason has decided that actually she wants Conservative support and unity (Despite it being clear now that she does not have long left in office, and also that Tory unity will be ruined regardless as their is no current successor candidate who could unify them, indeed Boris or a hard brexiteer in her place would see Tory remainers leave the party which would force a GE essentially https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...aab-ITV-Peston)

    So May has pulled her bill (for now- though other newspapers report its probably gone for good)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48374841

    And apparently the 1922 committee have held another vote (It seems to be once a month now this happens) on if they should change Tory party rules, to allow a VONC to be called again so soon (iirc its a years time limit between them)- this is a dangerous move though, as again bearing in any replacement candidate isn't going to be able to unify the party- if it passed, there would be a key tool to remove a PM the party did not like, very easily, or more likely- its threat to be brandished as a political weapon.

    The reason why i don't comment on if the vote has passed or not, is because while its already been held, they have not opened the results yet. They are using it as a threat against May when they meet her later as they demand her to 'speed up' her departure. It could be indeed the Party has voted to not change the rules, in which case they will have 0 ability to actually do anything.
    The worst thing about this is that we all knew the deal was undeliverable before Xmas. Since then 5 months of chaos. Boris said ' business' . well business is indeed being ed over.


    Quote Originally Posted by The Wandering Storyteller View Post
    Nigel's going to have a smashing night isn't he?

    The man just destroyed whatever shattered reputation the Tories and Labour held.

    He didn't even need to do anything!
    He even gets free milkshakes.............
    Last edited by mongrel; May 23, 2019 at 01:46 PM.
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  6. #1706
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Theresa May announces resignation.

    Theresa May has said she will quit as Conservative leader on 7 June, paving the way for a contest to decide a new prime minister.

    In an emotional statement in Downing Street Mrs May said she had "done my best" to honour the 2016 EU referendum result.

    It would remain a matter of "deep regret" that she had been unable to deliver Brexit, she added.

    But a new PM was "in the best interests of the country".
    Now we can all get excited about who will be the next leader to run down that same dead-end street.
    Last edited by Muizer; May 24, 2019 at 04:26 AM.
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  7. #1707
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Indeed May has been the end of May

    She emphasized the need for compromise for any new PM...which is the one thing we will not get. Boris Johnson is set to be in the lead, however as has been pointed out by various political commentators this morning, the Conservatives have a habit of stabbing their leads. Dominic Raab is also there... and so are around 20 other candidates. Its going to be messy. The ERG is purporting that a new PM should renegotiate essentially everything with the EU (and also are arguing they had nothing to do with May's fall...). 'Soft Brexiteers' and Remain leaning Tories are making noises that if a 'hard brexiteer' becomes PM, they'll walk.

    On top of this internal split (Conservative leadership contests are nearly always brutal), there will be huge pressure for the new PM to call a GE asap. If they do not, they essentially lack a mandate that could come in very useful post-brexit to not shoulder all the blame and have a government collapse. This however, would be very bad for the Conservatives- as any new leader is more than likely not going to be a unifying candidate, and to the electorate would not be 'broad appeal enough' (for instance Boris would have little hope of getting a majority in a GE), not to mention Conservative finances look bad, and a GE for leadership would still be too near the EU election results, not to mention brexit, which means their would not be enough distance for the brexit party to lose its momentum on the Tory core vote. So i suspect the Conservatives will try and play the 'national emergency card' for all its worth to stave off needing to go for a GE for as long as possible. This however, as mentioned could be very bad though in the long-term as it means they lack the typical protections for their decisions, which tends to lead to GE slaughter (See May who called one too late) and also Parliamentary arithmetic and party unity would essentially remain the same.
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  8. #1708

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Theresa May announces resignation.



    Now we can all get excited about who will be the next leader to run down that same dead-end street.
    Woo hoo!


    If, as I suspect, the Euro polls show Britain split down the middle, we will get a repeat, if a no-deal candidate is picked.
    Last edited by mongrel; May 24, 2019 at 05:04 AM.
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  9. #1709

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    I'll believe she's gone, when she's actually gone. May is a pathological liar, as long as she's still PM, she can still carry on doing her utmost to pervert Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Now we can all get excited about who will be the next leader to run down that same dead-end street.
    The cul-de-sac is of May and Barnier's making. May because she doesn't really want to leave, so has been trying to engineer so minimal an exit that it isn't anything of the sort; Barnier because he's tried to create so awful a deal the UK would rather Remain. The solution isn't to keep trying to drive down the same street, but to back out and start again.

  10. #1710
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    I'll believe she's gone, when she's actually gone. May is a pathological liar, as long as she's still PM, she can still carry on doing her utmost to pervert Brexit.



    The cul-de-sac is of May and Barnier's making. May because she doesn't really want to leave, so has been trying to engineer so minimal an exit that it isn't anything of the sort; Barnier because he's tried to create so awful a deal the UK would rather Remain. The solution isn't to keep trying to drive down the same street, but to back out and start again.
    Indeed i think an attempt at renegotiation is now very likely from any successor. However Parliamentary arithmetic and in nearly all likely outcomes, party disunity remains, so essentially whoever gets in, even if they manage to renegotiate a new deal, unless remainers, soft-brexiteers and hard-brexiteer MP's accept it (not to mention the factions within those three groups), it'll just be May mk.II (Now in Boris/Raab/Rudd/Whoever form ). The GE needed to resolve this though, i doubt will be called given polling for the Tories- May waited far too long to get her GE mandate (and thus it was too late), but the incoming PM will be stuck between a rock and a hard place in this respect- too early, the Tories will bleed votes to a still 'fresh' brexit party, who has some momentum from the EU elections (though due to FPTP will not actually gain any MP's i suspect- the 'UKIP issue' of doing well in vote share, not translating into seats rearing its head), and even if they don't, a new candidate will be unlikely to get on-side voters from the 'other side' to secure a majority (Unless they can do as Labour did in 2017 and make it about domestic policy, which is far easier for the opposition to do than the incumbent government).

    I can't actually at the moment see a change of leader actually changing much- beyond perhaps if they come in and force parliament as a whole to choose an option through ranked indicative-style voting where you cannot discount any option. A new leader would have the support and mandate to do this 'new broom, compromise vision etc etc' at first. Though also i doubt a new leader would want their first action to be 'throw it to Parliament, i can't deal' .
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  11. #1711
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    May is thinking of her place in history.

    Cameron goes down as being the idiot who thought a Brexit vote would never happen, and made it so.

    Whoever comes next gets to put their name to the no-deal Brexit mess that now seems likely.

    May will be the PM in the middle who people either forget, or think: "well she tried to moderate the mess, but everyone was too busy showing off for their twitter followings to do anything substantive".

    Either way... it's hard to see history looking on her as anything other than the person minding the bridge of the Titanic while the captain is having a drink at the VIP table.
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  12. #1712
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Indeed i think an attempt at renegotiation is now very likely from any successor
    While I understand May resigning and a new leader coming in may be quite something in terms of British politics, it needs stressing that for the EU it's an internal British affair and it is simply inconceivable that the EU will start negotiating afresh because of something like that. Indeed, a GE might perhaps make it possible, depending on the outcome, provided it produces a government that has a unified strategy with wide support in parliament. Otherwise, the EU just won't trust the UK government not to continue wasting its time.
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  13. #1713
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    While I understand May resigning and a new leader coming in may be quite something in terms of British politics, it needs stressing that for the EU it's an internal British affair and it is simply inconceivable that the EU will start negotiating afresh because of something like that. Indeed, a GE might perhaps make it possible, depending on the outcome, provided it produces a government that has a unified strategy with wide support in parliament. Otherwise, the EU just won't trust the UK government not to continue wasting its time.
    Oh indeed, my comment was meant from purely the internal British political angle and the rhetoric around it, any actual attempt at renegotiation i think is probably doomed to fail, it probably won't even get off the ground as the EU have been firmly against it. Maybe the GE indeed, though again i don't think that any new Tory leader will try and do one too soon, they'll probably want to stave that off as long as possible alas.
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  14. #1714
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    And honestly i think the majority in Germany and i guess in Europe would even don't care for a no deal exit.

    Better a end with horror than those endless horror.

    I think EU was patient enough with the british midlife crisis.
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  15. #1715
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Heh I wrote almost something similar to Dante and Muzier but felt asleep....

    -No deal scenario - well EU is as much ready as is possible. Definitely the shock value of this card is lower with each day. It is still an issue but way lower than before. And one more crucial part. Allowing UK to blackmail constantly EU with that..well may it is really better to let it happen. Let´s be honest the brexit discussion might take a few more years. And there is no assurance that no deal scenario will not happen so why not trigger it now and try to build atop of it? UK should understand that sooner or later, EU will have enough and will move...

    -Any deal will require very similar withdrawal treaty. For example UK/Ireland. The long problematic relationship is still there and it will be exposed once more no matter what kind of treaty Uk will try to get. Either the treaty change nothing, then Uk is effectively still in EU of it will change things and then there are problems...

    -Well question is, what will happen next. Like with Farage around, probably not many people (PMs) would like idea of GE..but it might be necessary to move forward With or Without GE...sooner or later we will get more or less sane PM. It takes some time, anyway my point it, this new guy (or girl) will probably say "woah, let´s start newly or at least revisit and double check everything" which is actually quite sense things to do. Make some order here. Even if he is aiming for hard brexit But from Uk side...what about EU side? What have been changed from EU perspective? Does UK finally know which precise path is going forward?

    -Plus there is question of how fast there will be somewhat stable goverment in UK...month? Summer? Autumn? And there lies my problem....EU is still somewhat waiting for what will happen next in UK. But can you imagine somebody as new PM going to Brussel to ask to start everything anew? New negotiations? After three years and half year after original brexit date? Especially without GE backing his positions? Because if May´s deal is now throw off the table, what is the assurance, the new deal won´t end up in the same spot? The main issue is, the new leader without GE ..what he can offer to EU? There is zero reason to re-open negotiation as the deal will be very similar unless UK asks for something way different.....no deal scenario, particular combaination of custom union - particular scenario. But we have no idea which final solution will be picked in Uk itself... And reading about EU https://www.theguardian.com/politics...te-brexit-deal it si super fun.

    Anybody trying to re-negotiate things will need another year(s) at best. Convincing EU27....While EU27 is probably super bored. Hard brexit probably being the quickest way out. (Except that part, that will happen after that, that won´t be quick negotiation...)

    Tl dr; I think we have pre-ordered fun for looong time ahead.

    From my central EU perspective, the only reasonable option would be to postpone brexit. Just vote that the brexit date is next EU elections. Get back to current problems, prepare GE and have enough time to solve and prepare everything....But we all know, this is too much sane approach to happen. Nonono that won´t be as much fun as we would have with current chaos.
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  16. #1716

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    While I understand May resigning and a new leader coming in may be quite something in terms of British politics, it needs stressing that for the EU it's an internal British affair and it is simply inconceivable that the EU will start negotiating afresh because of something like that. Indeed, a GE might perhaps make it possible, depending on the outcome, provided it produces a government that has a unified strategy with wide support in parliament. Otherwise, the EU just won't trust the UK government not to continue wasting its time.
    It's only an "internal British affair" insofar as the cowardice and complicity of our political class who don't want to follow through with the instruction they were given. There was a ComRes poll earlier in the week (usual caveats on polling apply) which showed 63% of respondents were in favour of no deal if an agreement couldn't be reached. The electorate are a long way ahead of Parliamentarians, and when they say they want it done, that includes leaving without a deal if one can't be reached.

    Frankly, I can't see the point in further negotiations before an actual exit, no deal the EU is willing to offer would be in the UK's interests. Leave first, then negotiate afresh from a starting position of complete separation.
    Last edited by QuintusSertorius; May 24, 2019 at 07:28 PM.

  17. #1717

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    It's only an "internal British affair" insofar as the cowardice and complicity of our political class who don't want to follow through with the instruction they were given. There was a ComRes poll earlier in the week (usual caveats on polling apply) which showed 63% of respondents were in favour of no deal if an agreement couldn't be reached. The electorate are a long way ahead of Parliamentarians, and when they say they want it done, that includes leaving without a deal if one can't be reached.

    Frankly, I can't see the point in further negotiations before an actual exit, no deal the EU is willing to offer would be in the UK's interests. Leave first, then negotiate afresh from a starting position of complete separation.
    Actually the issue is that the Government knows that Brexit is an undeliverable policy, but hasn't got the means of telling the public without immolating what is left of its reputation. It's pointless referring to the electorate's so-called will, when dealing with the unravelling of 4 decades worth of complex treaty obligations, just as it would be pointless to ask random and unqualified members of the public to conduct a major war or build a space programme. They have not a clue as to what a forced EU exit means to the country. Not one single country operates solely on WTO terms, for good reasons.Look at how the UK has had to kiss Turkey's, Saudi's, the US's and China's arse of late. Without Brexit for example, Yemenis might be safer in their beds, in the absence of UK made ordnance raining down on them and we would have told Huawei 'no way' when building 5G. There is also the reality on the ground in Parliament. The Tories are entirely dependent on the votes of MPs from the sectarian DUP in Northern Ireland, a place whose people had strongly voted to remain in the EU.

    There are only two real options, ditch Brexit or make Brexit or revoke Article 50, start again and do it properly without buggering around.


    I stumbled across this vid, dated October 2017 discussing the possibility of there being no agreement. Interesting how things developed since then.


    Last edited by mongrel; May 25, 2019 at 02:55 AM.
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  18. #1718
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    It's only an "internal British affair" insofar as the cowardice and complicity of our political class who don't want to follow through with the instruction they were given. There was a ComRes poll earlier in the week (usual caveats on polling apply) which showed 63% of respondents were in favour of no deal if an agreement couldn't be reached. The electorate are a long way ahead of Parliamentarians, and when they say they want it done, that includes leaving without a deal if one can't be reached.

    Frankly, I can't see the point in further negotiations before an actual exit, no deal the EU is willing to offer would be in the UK's interests. Leave first, then negotiate afresh from a starting position of complete separation.
    It wasn't exactly a simple instruction. In the leave camp there are at least four different distinct positions: leave without a deal, leave but maintain a Norway style relationship, the same but Canada plus, and finally leave with something similar to what May has negotiated. So what were the actual instructions that the 17m people who voted leave were giving to the government? Because it could be anything from the above options and a range of other alternatives as well. The remain voters' wishes are entirely unambiguous, however.

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  19. #1719

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jom View Post
    It wasn't exactly a simple instruction. In the leave camp there are at least four different distinct positions: leave without a deal, leave but maintain a Norway style relationship, the same but Canada plus, and finally leave with something similar to what May has negotiated. So what were the actual instructions that the 17m people who voted leave were giving to the government? Because it could be anything from the above options and a range of other alternatives as well. The remain voters' wishes are entirely unambiguous, however.
    The leave campaign's position was unambiguously predicated on the United Kingdom exiting the European Union, the Single Market and the Customs Union; the instruction given by the British electorate in 2016 was to leave all three of these institutions.
    Last edited by Cope; January 26, 2020 at 07:30 AM.



  20. #1720
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    It's only an "internal British affair" insofar as the cowardice and complicity of our political class who don't want to follow through with the instruction they were given. There was a ComRes poll earlier in the week (usual caveats on polling apply) which showed 63% of respondents were in favour of no deal if an agreement couldn't be reached. The electorate are a long way ahead of Parliamentarians, and when they say they want it done, that includes leaving without a deal if one can't be reached.

    Frankly, I can't see the point in further negotiations before an actual exit, no deal the EU is willing to offer would be in the UK's interests. Leave first, then negotiate afresh from a starting position of complete separation.
    My sole point was that a change of leadership in the Tory party or even the cabinet does not wipe the slate clean on British-EU negotiations It means nothing to the EU other than yet more confirmation of the lack of authority with which the British government negotiates.

    The reason I felt it needed to be said is that you have people saying things to that effect on national television. Things like 'we negotiated badly under May. Her successor can get a better deal'.

    Negotiations will not start over. May's successor will take over negotiations where she left them and will be faced by the same parliamentary divisions and EU red lines. The deadlock remains.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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