Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[NorseThing]

I agree that controlling the borders is important. Your link Ludicus with the Independent article seems to omit that such control should be nation to nation and not EU versus UK. A bit of a bias perhaps, but then this is the sticking point on the exit as well. I cannot see a united Ireland simply because of the UK exiting the EU. I can foresee that Ireland can be united in the future, but not because of who is a part or not a part of the EU. Or is it as simple as ignoring the wants and desires of the whole of Northern Ireland now?

[Aexodus]

Only 17% want a United Ireland. The long and short is NI wants to stay in the UK. The border issue isn’t enough to change that, it will not prevent us from crossing, and would only be the natural state between two countries.

[Elmetiacos]

Only 17% want a United Ireland. The long and short is NI wants to stay in the UK. The border issue isn’t enough to change that, it will not prevent us from crossing, and would only be the natural state between two countries.

That's a poll from February 2013.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Indeed, recent polling for Northern Ireland seems to indicate it being around on average the 50% mark

The five most recent opinion polls taken in the North show similar results, with support for the North staying in the UK ranging from 45 per cent to 55 per cent, and averaging around the 50 per cent mark.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/p...land-1.3645214

Though as i think the article rightly shows this doesn't mean a border poll called now will see a united Ireland by any means. However there has been a gradual shift- partly due to brexit, but also simply structurally-

“It’s a massive demographic shift. In five to 10 years there’ll be a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland,” said Peter Shirlow, director of the University of Liverpool’s Institute of Irish Studies. It will take longer for those numbers to translate into the electorate. “But a majority for a united Ireland is going to happen, no doubt about that.”Some unionists are overturning taboos by openly questioning the endurance and even desirability of the union with Britain.
The “battle for the union is on”, Peter Robinson, Northern Ireland’s former first minister, and former leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, recently warned. Unionists need to prepare for a border poll, he said: “I don’t expect my own house to burn down, but I still insure it because it could happen.” Unionists, in other words, need to act before the demographic clock ticks to midnight by selling the union’s merits to moderate nationalists and those who consider themselves neither unionist nor nationalist. Brexit, and unionist clumsiness in wooing allies, may immolate such insurance.

So essentially, unless as Robinson argues for here, the Unionists begin taking the initiative, demographic changes over the next few decades will see a majority for uniting Ireland. However in the short term, i don't think there's going to be much danger (pending a massive screw up with brexit...more screwed up than currently ) of Northern Ireland leaving the UK. Scotland is probably the key area brexit has put at risk-

TWO thirds of Scots who are "undecided" about independence, believe Brexit makes it more likely - and more than half would be more likely to vote Yes in a second independence referendum if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, according to a new poll.

According to the new figures, the issue of EU membership has gone from being of concern to just 22 per cent of voters at the time of the 2014 independence vote, to being the main concern at 43 per cent - above the economy and the NHS. And the poll, of more than 2000 people, found that of those "undecided" on independence, 63 per cent now believe Brexit will make it more likely, with just 13 per cent disagreeing. It also found that 45 per cent of formerly undecided voters have changed their view on independence as a result of Brexit. And while 49 per cent of the same cohort say they will wait to see the impact of Brexit before deciding how they would vote in any new independence referendum, that changed to 56 per cent saying they would be more likely to back independence in the event of a no deal Brexit.


Read more at: https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...lans-1-4897780

This is already a worry for the Union based on the 'steady' votes too for either side-

Almost half of Scottish voters - 47 percent - said they would now vote for independence if the UK leaves the European Union. Only 43 percent said they would vote for Scotland to remain part of Britain after Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8519526.html

So the Union threat is Scottish-centric, but the Northern Ireland issue is one that might have far more immediate political consequences if indeed there is a return of the violence. So far the indications to if that will happen are unknown, though there was the 'Real IRA' bomb scare, where an individual claiming to represent the IRA sent 5 bombs in packages to various UK institutions.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...t-another-one/

[Dante Von Hespburg]

EDIT: The link for the quote on Demographic change
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...back-on-agenda

Again edits not being kind to me.

[Aexodus]

Actually a catholic majority does not mean a United Ireland, as over half of catholics favour remaining in the UK. It’s simply a fantasy, only possibly unless the old tactics were again adopted. In 2016, only 22% supported Irish Unity, so there is not much support.

Brexit should not even mean a United Ireland, as Sinn Fein are themselves a fundamentally Eurosceptic party.

Edit: 22% support for united ireland https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...84882?mode=amp

[Dante Von Hespburg]

@Aexodus- glad its not just me whose suffering with the edits

I would point out though your poll there is from 2016 mate, mine are from 2018.

Likewise your point about Catholics supporting the Union is from polling in 2011, mine is from 2018 again- also its exactly what Professor Shirlow said, that immediately a rise in Catholics does not mean the Union is in danger, but overtime it certainly will be- as we're arguably seeing from your 2011 results to 2018 as Catholics arguably are looking to the ROI. Its still a process that i would expect to take another few decades, but union support seems to be steadily slipping into trouble- hence the DUP's warning about the need to defend the union more radically.

[Elmetiacos]

Actually a catholic majority does not mean a United Ireland, as over half of catholics favour remaining in the UK. It’s simply a fantasy, only possibly unless the old tactics were again adopted. In 2016, only 22% supported Irish Unity, so there is not much support.

That's the key to it: what earlier generations of sectarian politicians in Northern Ireland were always reluctant to admit was that there were and are now more than ever, a lot of "soft" Catholics/Nationalists who are content with the status quo as part of the UK, but also there are just as many "soft" Protestants/Unionists on the same side for the time being. If these latter "flip" in a bad Brexit scenario and instead go along with a united Ireland, then the Unionist game is up.

A lot of people, politicians and commentators don't seem to get the DUP. There's the hard right, some of them in the Conservative Party, who are obsessed with leaving the EU because they have a vision of a free market everything, Americanised Britain controlled by the men with the money, separated from those awful Continentals who insist of talking to Trade Unions instead of cutting them down with the sabres of the 15th Hussars as they should. The DUP supported Brexit, but for them it's just a nice bonus, a fifth wheel. What they really care about is maintaining Northern Ireland as just another part of the UK, no more no less. They would rather remain in the EU than jeopardise that, they won't be won over or bought over to supporting the backstop: Brexit isn't their Number One as it is the for ERG.

[Aexodus]

but also there are just as many "soft" Protestants/Unionists on the same side for the time being. If these latter "flip" in a bad Brexit scenario and instead go along with a united Ireland, then the Unionist game is up.

Actually Protestants are a lot more solidly Unionist than Catholics are nationalist, something like 97% of Protestants favour being in the UK, whereas it’s a much smaller percentage of Catholics who want to leave.

[caratacus]

I think there would be a lot more support for the UK amongst Catholics, if Northern Ireland actually had a proper system of political representation.
For two years now the Northern Ireland Assembly has been in limbo with no sign that it is ever going to manage NI affairs adequately. And what about the 7 Sinn Féin MPs that don't actually represent their constituents and attend the UK Parliament and haven't done so for years, why are they even allowed to stand! I hear nothing from Westminister or Brussels about how the people of Northern Ireland are not being served right with their current form of political representation. Yet when the UK votes to leave the EU, then suddenly the Irish border becomes an issue and the stability of the region.

[Aexodus]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland

There’s lots of information here, for example, polling data from 1998-2017

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/api/rest_...f20dba0c8d.png

[Copperknickers II]

For anyone wondering what the current options are, in today's vote... wow, this stuff is complicated, but this is my best shot at summarising:

Customs Union (Turkish Model)
- No tariffs on goods entering and leaving Britain when trading with EU countries.
- Goes some way towards solving Northern Irish issue, but only when combined with close regulatory alignment.
- I.e, UK has to accept many of the EU laws which the Leave campaign railed against.
- Makes it hard to sign international trade deals, i.e. ties Britain economically to Europe.

For anyone wondering what the current options are, in today's vote... wow, this stuff is complicated, but this is my best shot at summarising:

Customs Union (Turkish Model)
- No tariffs on goods entering and leaving Britain when trading with EU countries.
- Goes some way towards solving Northern Irish issue, but only when combined with close regulatory alignment.
- I.e, UK has to accept many of the EU laws which the Leave campaign railed against.
- Makes it hard to sign international trade deals, i.e. ties Britain economically to Europe.

Free Market 2.0 (Norway Model/EFTA plus possible customs union)
- Very soft Brexit, with UK remaining in single market AND maybe also customs union.
- Contrary to what I thought, single market actually has the advantage of making us MORE free to negotiate international trade deals, if we opt out of customs union as Norway does.
- Also means we leave common agricultural/fisheries policy.
- But means we have to pay into EU and accept freedom of movement.
- Also goes some way towards solving the Irish border issue on condition that it's actually allowed, which it might not be thanks to EFTA rules.


Different stages of economic integration between countries No Internal Trade Barriers Common External Tariff Factor and Asset Mobility
Free Trade Area X
Customs Union (X) X
Single Market X X X

[Aexodus]

I don’t see how a customs union rules out a regulatory border. There were custom checks and border posts between the UK and RoI from when they both joined the EU in 1976 at the same time, until they both dropped them in 1993, when the single market was established.

A customs union does not rule out a physical border, it just doesn’t. There are still regulatory checks in a customs union that are needed. http://theconversation.com/would-sta...-ireland-92485

tldr without the UK remaining in the single market a physical border is inevitable.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

All Quiet on the Brexit Front.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Well tonight edged Parliament closer to some kind of consensus. Clarke's option of what is essentially being in the Single market while negotiating a customs union was the most popular. Potential of combining votes when they come back for indicative voting round 3.

Though a lot will now depend on whatever is happening tomorrow. May has called a 6 hour cabinet meeting (Other reports say its a 3 hour one). Unusually no civil servants are being invited (they normally are present to advise, take notes etc). Which indicates whatever is happening will be party-political (As the Civil Service cannot be party to...party business hurr hurr). Rumours abound that May might decide to call a snap election, others that she's standing down, others yet that the letter signed by 150 Tory MP's (Which they kept hidden from the rest of their party- the splits deepen) to her stating that we should leave before taking part in the EU elections might be something she's going to do.
The length of the meeting is to determine a Tory party consensus on what exactly to do next with brexit- that specifically will keep the party 'alive'. Apparently their are also a lot of concerns that as Labour more and more are adopting the 'centrist' position on brexit (I.e. softer version) that in the context of any snap election, the Conservatives will bleed voters to Labour at far greater rates and be left reliant on those who support a hard brexit, but who are mostly pissed at the way the Conservatives have handled things so far- hence i suspect their will be vocal opposition to any calling of a snap election.

We'll see what happens then tomorrow chaps.

[Ludicus]

@NorseThing

such control should be nation to nation and not EU versus UK

Impossible, the Republic of Ireland is an EU member state, the Irish border is the EU border between EU and the UK.Leaving the EU ( with or without a customs union) means there would have to be border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
--------
And again, a couple of hours ago, the House of Commons again votes against all options.
As Juncker put it:"if I were to compare Great Britain to a sphinx, the sphinx would be an open book by comparison"

[Love Mountain]

Well as one Youtube comment put it,

"So, a second referendum is a threat to democracy... But forcing parliament to vote for the same thing 4 times is just democracy as intended eh?"

[NorseThing]

@ Ludicus

The EU versus UK as opposed to UK relations with Ireland is the whole point of Brexit. The EU insisting on the backstop is simply designed to sabotage any exit other than a hard break. Of course the members of parliament are hopelessly split on any exit or remain, so the EU backstop insistence is simply a convenient stab against sovereignty of any independent actions by any member of the EU. This is a line drawn by the EU bureaucrats. I wonder if it would be so popular if put to series of national votes by all members of the EU in terms that it affects not simply the UK, but every single country within the EU.

[JP226]

Brits are being grossly irresponsible. They can not handle sovereignty and thus must give it up for the sake of their people and all Europeans.

[Jom]

Brits are being grossly irresponsible. They can not handle sovereignty and thus must give it up for the sake of their people and all Europeans.

Missing the point that all EU members have sovereignty anyway and parliament's powers have neither increased nor diminished since the referendum, but don't let that stop you putting forward meaningless sound bites. There have been enough of them thrown out during this whole sorry process, almost all of them equally vapid.