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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #121
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: How 2 of 4 becomes 4 of 4 [why the EU can’t give in].

    Quote Originally Posted by Amorphos View Post
    I’m worried! Genuinely I can imagine Britain coming out of the EU and falling into chaos rather quickly. I hope that is not a ridiculous over estimation, but I don’t think it would take that much to break the already fragile economy. A trade war might not do us any good whatsoever as we don’t have all the connections we once did. Not to mention that places like China can very easily undercut us. This trade thing works both ways, we may have the world such that you can pay foreign workers less than it costs to feed a slave in England, but that also means that nations who’s money is worth much less [like up to 800% on cacao derivatives [if you believe BBC documentaries]], can massively undercut us on every front. The only thing we got is the deals we have.

    A look at history tells us that designations can change, and quickly.

    also. I don’t think its financially plausible that any benefit to any of us will be the outcome of a hard brexit [i'd spell that with an f and a u lol]]. I also cannot see how there are too many options here, a soft brexit will be viewed at least by the audiences of questiontime as a capitulation and weakness.
    I don’t get why people are even imagining some manner of return to colonial deals with the world. We might get new Zealand lamb and a few deals with Australia and the USA, possibly 1% of what we currently get from the EU [and already get from said parties].
    America as I see it is pretty much the big dog who’s got the bone, and we will be the little dog who’s looking at the dog with the bone. Since when have any dogs wanted to give up their bones?_

    Similar threads merged. ~Abdülmecid I
    The pessimism in your post is really depressing to read. I cannot say I blame you though, the headlines have been full of negativity and we have a government trying to expedite the wish of the people in the most cack handed and reluctant way possible.

    The UK has a huge potential to not only build trading links with countries around the World which we abandoned when entering the EEC, we have potential to influence structural change within the EU in these negotiations. The EU are scarred s...less of the implications of the UK leaving the EU and are actively working to undermine Brexit to reduce that impact. Meanwhile we have a government who are I believe assisting them in that process, but showing a different face to the public. Politicians are the biggest weakness of Brexit not trade. They are after all, the reason behind it!

  2. #122

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    According to Politico, Brexit means the britons will be massacred by the europeans; https://www.politico.eu/article/brex...what-it-means/

    In short, the U.K. better follow the rules and do what it’s told during transition. This and subsequent clauses make clear the EU will have the upper hand in any disputes during the transition period over alleged non-compliance by the U.K. with EU laws, rules and regulations. And if the U.K. refuses to implement a remedy of an alleged violation as ordered by the EU authorities, the EU will have a fast-track mechanism for imposing punishment — a “proportionate” suspension of certain benefits the U.K. receives from participating in the EU’s single market. This point first emerged in a footnote to a previous version of the legal text but it has been spelled out more explicitly and watered down slightly — although not much.
    About time too i must say; the british have sabotaged the EU project for far too long and must be taught a lesson.

  3. #123
    NorseThing's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Of course the EU will have the upper hand if anything is wanted to be negotiated. If Brexit was a clean break and to heck with complications, then the UK would have had the upper hand or at least an even keel with the EU. May and company were too timid to go with a clean break (probably because they were 'Remainers' at heart) and then talk to the EU knowing both sides had something in common to make a good post transition.

  4. #124

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    A clean break in not possible because May tgriggered article 50 too early (and did nothing for months afterwards) . THere are practical issues, like making a decision as to how may customs officials we need, replacing bodies like Euratom and most impotantly incorporating current EU directives into UK law. We've only provided the Impact assessments (in draft form) recently.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

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  5. #125
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    It's becoming clearer by the day that May will not be able to reconcile what is required to keep her government from sinking with negotiating an agreement with the EU. She's been tacking that decrepit little raft from one side to another to keep it from capsizing, never coming closer to either shore, yet drawing ever nearer to tipping over the waterfall. I wonder if the British people realise that a "bespoke" deal that will keep all factions on board is a myth. That there will be no deal unless one or the other side of their government gives in. That all atempts to prevent that are just stalling.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  6. #126

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Events are proving you right Muizer.

    The EU has now rejected the very idea of a 'bespoke' deal, Donald Tusk stating the bleeding obvious,that this will be the first free trade agreement in history that loosens economic ties

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8243721.html


    I think this put the UK back to we it was before the referendum, when Cameron promised to avoid a vote on EU membership by chasing an illusory deal. What a waste of time, money and energy this Brexit negotiation is becoming.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

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  7. #127
    NorseThing's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    The EU does not even understand the requirements for true free trade. Their 19th century thinking of free trade is about tariffs and not about movement of capital and people. Yes, May does not get it either. Trump on this side of the Atlantic also does not get it. Both sides have dug in and both sides are living in a fictional world. Politicians respond best to voters and at the moment the voters want tariffs and do not want free flow of people. The voters may be right in their thinking even if it is not really free trade.

    Jobs come before benefits of free trade. To most voters, free trade is what you can do after you have a good paying job to buy extra stuff over and above a warm home and food on the table. They do not see that the warm home and the food are helped by trade and they do not care.

  8. #128
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by NorseThing View Post
    The EU does not even understand the requirements for true free trade. Their 19th century thinking of free trade is about tariffs and not about movement of capital and people. Yes, May does not get it either. Trump on this side of the Atlantic also does not get it. Both sides have dug in and both sides are living in a fictional world. Politicians respond best to voters and at the moment the voters want tariffs and do not want free flow of people. The voters may be right in their thinking even if it is not really free trade.

    Jobs come before benefits of free trade. To most voters, free trade is what you can do after you have a good paying job to buy extra stuff over and above a warm home and food on the table. They do not see that the warm home and the food are helped by trade and they do not care.
    Two things. Firstly, the principles governing the EU, the common market etc, are what they are. They are agreed upon by its members and that is what gives it validity, not the degree to which they measure up to a theoretical free trade concept. In other words, whatever you want to call it is immaterial, what it is is operationally defined by its rules and regulations. It is, what it's supposed to be. Whether you think that's a good thing or a bad thing is another matter, but one that's certainly not part of the Brexit discussion.

    Secondly, as always with a yes-no vote on a de facto open-ended question in a referendum, there's going to be lots of discussion about what the outcome means. What do "the people" actually want. That debate still seems to be ongoing in the UK. What prompted my previous post is that there is no reason at all to think the EU's main principles are up for negotiation Yet from what I've seen on shows like Question Time or News Night I very much get the impression that in Britain this is still being presented as a possible outcome by people who ordinary folk might consider to be speaking with some knowledge/authority. May's mutterings too only make sense in that "thought space". It creates a semblance of negotiations towards a cherry-picked deal, when in fact the EU just considers the ball entirely in the British court and is waiting for something to come out of it that one way or another respects its ground rules.
    Last edited by Muizer; March 07, 2018 at 04:11 PM.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  9. #129
    NorseThing's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Respect for ground rules does not really matter if leaving the game. I do agree quite a bit with your recent posts so please do not take this as a debating or disagreement. May is in a hard place and her party and for that matter all political parties in the UK are probably stumped on how to proceed. The same can be said for the EU as well. Uncharted political territory and all want to stay with the familiar because they then now how to proceed. The problem is that the Brexit vote put all parties into the unfamiliar territory.

  10. #130
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    This is just a gut-feeling, but i think a so called 'soft-brexit' will be coming up soon:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8251911.html

    The polling company that most accurately predicted the last 2015 and 17 elections has found Corbyn's Labour now have a 7 point lead over the Conservatives- and 42% of Conservative voters have found that austerity has gone 'too far' and also that key private services such be 'nationalized'. That's rather interesting. Further it seems the public being most concerned now about any furthering of austerity, the possibility of a recession under the Tories and with Hammond set to not ease it at his coming 'big budget announcements', we'll either see a u-turn there and the spending taps kicked on and Corbyn dictating the political agenda, or we'll see as opposed to that the so-called 'hard brexiteers' pushed aside as being electorally 'non-viable' now the polling situation has changed so drastically (Bearing in mind this is with the smear campaign against Corbyn and has changed and clearer brexit stance)- i suspect the latter is more likely, as for the Conservatives to reverse on an austerity line they were just touting last week would destroy the ideological foundations of their government and what they've been doing (badly in my view ) for the last 3 governments. But crunch time will have to be had, as while of course polling can be wrong (we've all seen that!), it does tend to hold weight in terms of policy decisions, and with a government technically unable to for numerous reasons make any actual serious policy decisions, they will be worried- particularly as the local elections in May are so far predicted across the political spectrum to see the Conservatives face quite a wipe. Of course for this point there is the argument of if local elections are a good gauge for national feeling being as some vote on actual local issues (as their supposed to) while others tie it to the national parties performance.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; March 12, 2018 at 04:57 PM.
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  11. #131

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    I don't think so, a hard Brexit acts to humiliate the uppity Anglos and their attempts at destroying holy roman empire v4.0

    Hell, even Bruxelles has issued an ultimatum that the Anglos must tremblingly obey,
    Tusk said he had offered the U.K. a robust free-trade agreement covering goods in all sectors, with zero tariffs, but added: “Services are not about tariffs. Services are about common rules, common supervision and common enforcement to ensure a level playing field, to ensure the integrity of the single market and, ultimately, also to ensure financial stability. This is why we cannot offer the same in services as we can offer in goods. It’s also why FTAs don’t have detailed rules for financial services.”
    “We should all be clear,” he said, summing up in blunt fashion: “When it comes to financial services, life will be different after Brexit.”
    Tusk also pushed back hard, and directly, at U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond, who gave a speech on Wednesday urging a deal on financial services and asserting it would also benefit the EU.
    “I fully respect the chancellor’s competence in defining what’s in the U.K.’s interest,” Tusk shot back. “I would, however, ask to allow us to define what’s in the EU’s interest.”
    https://www.politico.eu/article/dona...cial-services/

    Wake up Anglo, time to die. Yurop is coming and it will crush you like a worm.

  12. #132
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Indeed from the EU's side i couldn't say yet, they ironically indeed may be the ones who force a 'hard brexit' upon us- i know that currently they have frozen progress on trade talks until the Conservatives get their act together over what to do with the Irish border. Hammonds speech about 'finance is good as we offer cheap loans easily to businesses so the EU would be mad to ban us' (I'm paraphrasing naturally )- which ironically is incredibly bad as its essentially what partly caused the last financial crisis with debtors not being able to make good on loans that were given with little regard for how they could afford them, just wasn't a great pitch to allow Britain's finance the ease of access to European financial markets it needs to be as big a player as it is now.

    Again these are all issues i would lay at the door of the 'rush' to hit article 50 when there was no preparation or thought as to how to actually 'brexit'. It'll be interesting from a political perspective what deal the UK will actually get (Negotiations these are not, and never could be). The Conservative brexit plan and how they are implementing it, i feel will be viewed in much the same as Suez is now- a watershed moment for Britain's decline in the world.
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  13. #133

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Look, there's no easy way to put this but Anglos are gonna have to eat humble pie and come grovelling back to Europe. Admit that they did wrong and harboured traitors to the EU and offer up the heads of all the Brexit leaders and allow EU armies to set up bases on the island. Your very survival is at stake.

  14. #134
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Exarch View Post
    Look, there's no easy way to put this but Anglos are gonna have to eat humble pie and come grovelling back to Europe. Admit that they did wrong and harboured traitors to the EU and offer up the heads of all the Brexit leaders and allow EU armies to set up bases on the island. Your very survival is at stake.
    I don't think you'll find many people in the UK who would be distraught if we gave up to the EU the entire current cabinet, even just as a good will gesture expecting nothing in return .
    I would hazard though that while the EU overall has said they would welcome the UK back, Some individual members such as those darn French would not be so quick to, considering what they can gain politically from the UK's departure. We might see a De Gaulle all over again!
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  15. #135

    Default UK Humiliated As EU Orders N. Ireland To Stay Out Of Union

    Despite PM May attempting to curry favour with the rest of the EU by bringing up the spectre of Russia and trying to look as pathetic as possible, Brussels has now put the nail in the coffin of any notion of a soft Brexit style free flow between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland-EU:
    EU diplomats tell May to back down over post-Brexit Irish border



    Downing Street told it must rethink prospect of Northern Ireland staying in customs union
    Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...rthern-ireland

    Allow me to remind people here why Brexit happened:


    So basically, the treacherous Anglos tried to use N. Ireland as a backdoor into the rest of the EU market but brussels was having none of that; effectively if NI wants into EU it'll have to rejoin the rest of mother Ireland.

    Similar threads merged. ~Abdülmecid I
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; March 18, 2018 at 06:18 AM. Reason: Clarification added.

  16. #136
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: UK Humiliated As EU Orders N. Ireland To Stay Out Of Union

    As Ireland imports 32% of its goods from the UK, it's a shame how they so willingly surrender their sovereign prerogative of their own best interest to the EU. Northern Ireland should and likely will leave the EU with the rest of the UK. Why? Because Irish Unity is an entirely different debate, separate to the Brexit question. The common travel area pre-1973 I believe Ireland would be welcomed into along with the rest of the British Isles (Man, Britain, Ireland, Scilly etc). NI is Mrs May's sovereign territory at present, she would do well to act with what little authority she possesses over it. But alas, she is no Thatcher?

    It's the Republic of Ireland's duty to deal with their neighbour's decision as much as it is the UK's, with Varadkar poking his nose around like he has a mandate for U.K. policy. The EU is not the default position, whereas much of the debate hinges on this. It's Ireland would do well out of Irexit, with their 2 largest trading partners already being outside the EU post Brexit.

    The EU is a protectionist customs union, it forces supposedly sovereign states to act in the interest of the EU establishment, and not their own. The South of Ireland is rife with this Europhilia, so blind to the fact that it is the EU, not Brexit causing the border problems.
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  17. #137
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: UK Humiliated As EU Orders N. Ireland To Stay Out Of Union

    What a tendentious topic title. I need hardly remind you it was the UK's initiative to leave. May's government is humiliating itself by begging for a 'special deal' the EU is under no moral or legal obligation to grant. Framing it as if it's somehow the EU doing any ordering around, or being unreasonably uncooperative is simply dishonest, above all to the British public.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  18. #138

    Default Re: UK Humiliated As EU Orders N. Ireland To Stay Out Of Union

    What's Russia got to do with this?
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
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    Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable. Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if we may not eff it after all.

  19. #139
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: UK Humiliated As EU Orders N. Ireland To Stay Out Of Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    What's Russia got to do with this?
    Just the OP muddying the already muddy waters.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  20. #140
    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    So the current situation is, everything's moving forward at pace because the EU and UK have once again agreed to kick the can down the road. Northern Ireland may yet prove to be the undoing of Theresa May's Brexit plans, as they have now decided that should negotiations hit a brick wall then the default position will be either de facto Norway-style EU 'rules without representation', or a hard border in between the island of Ireland and Great Britain, i.e. a quasi-united Ireland. In other words, once again Theresa May is between a rock and a hard place - if she agrees to a soft Brexit she will be ousted by her own party and be punished at the next election by Brexit voters for having changed pretty much nothing that they wanted changed; if she agrees to hard Brexit then the DUP will pull support and her government will collapse. Either way the Tories are screwed and we're looking at a Labour victory unless we can come up with an agreement for a Switzerland-style cherrypicking deal within the next few months.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

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