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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #1281
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    And May lost once again

    So tomorrow free vote on "no-deal scenario" , possible extension vote on Wendesday...

    Question is, what will UK tell EU now. Comments from Brussels are, that avoiding brexit at all cost but at the same time there should be good reason why grant extension and that many have problem with possible extension after EU elections. UK will be able to affect EU while heading outside...
    Well essentially if the votes go as expected (No deal voted down tomorrow) i think we're heading towards 'remain' overall now. If Thursday vote on the extension is passed- May has essentially summarized Parliaments options in her defeat speech earlier 'Second Referendum, Cancelling Article 50, or seek a totally new deal'. If the Vote on Thursday is not passed (The granting of an extension for the ERG is politically difficult- though they might vote for it, just so their is still the chance that 'A' brexit will happen), then i suspect the most likely thing is that Article 50 will be revoked- the political justification being either 'We tried' or it will be revoked and the reason given is that a general election will be undertaken for a clear way forward. During the GE the factors i bang on about will come into play , and its unlikely that a majority for a 'brexit' will emerge from the mire.

    Pending a radical change in policy (highly unlikely- even with a change of leader for the Tories) i think we'll end up seeing on this path either a very soft brexit (Regulatory alignment, customs union etc) or the option that would make more logical sense (given that sovereignty in a soft-brexit is far less than actually staying in the EU) revoking article 50 (The political argument most effective here would indeed be that sovereignty- that key concept for many is better served staying in the EU as 'rule-maker' than 'rule-taker').

    After that, i won't dare predict Opinion polling seems more in favour of remain now, however as i mentioned i think 'No-deal' and 'Remain' are the two political options that might have an actual electoral consequence (though depending on context and time, not necessarily a major one) so i suspect at the next GE we might see some seats lost from the big two- though i wouldn't put money on it as what will dominate the next election cycle is the response to the impending recession, social-care funding and sustainable domestic investment (plus working protections and nationalisation of key services)- i say all that, as this is currently what even the Conservatives are starting to debate and put out and based on the precedent of the 2017 GE where a brexit-emphasis essentially was a complete failure. I think due to this drawn out process of essentially ending most likely in no brexit at all, instead of any actual anger, the vast majority of the public won't give a damn. It was a brexiteer commenting on QT last week iirc who said his biggest fear is that public disinterest will see brexit never happen. He's probably right. A fair few leave voters i know have stated (fairly) that they would never vote again if brexit is not followed through. I respect that, but its also futile as a political gesture, because the British political system does not recognize it as such, instead your literally just removing your voice from the voting pool.
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  2. #1282
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I wonder whether, if no deal is taken off the table with opposition support, the Government can actually stay on. It might put the nail in the coffin of any prospect for common ground amongst its supporting factions. The fact that it's inconvenient for electoral reasons to abandon the government may mean it won't come to a VonC, but the government may just have no option but to resign simply because it won't be able to do anything going forward.
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  3. #1283

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I was surprised how heavy the defeat was: I expected the fudginess would give at least some Brexiteers justification for changing and voting for the deal and it would be closer this time. I don't have the voting breakdown yet, but it looks as if the Labour MPs who abstained or voted with the government didn't do it this time. Under normal circumstances the PM would resign, but these are far from normal circumstances.
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  4. #1284
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    And if there are new elections, will the ERG form it's own party running on a Brexit platform, knowing the soft-brexit/remain vote will be split.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Tomorrow with putting "no deal" off table, that will be the final nail in the coffin. Hopefully EU will not let UK fall into "no deal" chaos accidentaly. But probably at cost of lengthy extension. EU says the deal is deal, even future negotiations will probably have very similar results. Heck even I heard some comments that London should first talk with London, not with Brussel as essential problem lies in UK itself.

    So hopefully this lenght extension will return question back to UK internal politic discussion and remove unnecessary pressure from EU/UK, UK/world things... As soon as there is no pressure, May will go because with all her failings up to now. What else she can manage? Essentiaty UK should produce any plan with majority to move forward. So far there were only majorities against particular plans. Majority against May´s deal, probably tomorrow majority against "no deal" and of course there was majority against EU during referendum.

    Question is, can EU trade lenghty extension for for example request that next possible leave scenario will be put to the referendum public vote? Because giving UK 21 months to come with brexit agreement 2.0 which will be very similar to May´s deal is basically for nothing...
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  6. #1286

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Mays deal wont pass, seems the ball is firmly in the EU's court now; refuse to extend and force no deal or allow an extension and go through the same crap in however many months time.

    I suppose they could propose a deal that could actually go through parliament without spelling electoral suicide forfor the conservatives to agree to, but that would require concessions, which I think is about as likely as junker going cold turkey for more than a week.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Mays deal wont pass, seems the ball is firmly in the EU's court now; refuse to extend and force no deal or allow an extension and go through the same crap in however many months time.
    I suppose they could propose a deal that could actually go through parliament without spelling electoral suicide forfor the conservatives to agree to, but that would require concessions, which I think is about as likely as junker going cold turkey for more than a week.
    Actually the ball is in UK. Well actually that´s the problem, EU is waiting for UK to play the ball while UK is playing dumb and clock is ticking....

    Reading today news:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/13/u...gbr/index.html
    The Prime Minister, unsurprisingly, will vote against a no deal. And yet, regardless of the outcome of Wednesday's vote, Britain is heading for a no deal Brexit anyway -- because that is the default position, unless a deal can be agreed by both Brussels and the UK parliament. In one sense, after Tuesday night's so-called meaningful vote, Wednesday's is the meaningless vote.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ys-donald-tusk
    “Should there be a UK reasoned request for an extension, the EU27 will consider it and decide by unanimity,” a spokesman for Tusk said. “The EU27 will expect a credible justification for a possible extension and its duration. The smooth functioning of the EU institutions will need to be ensured.
    A spokesman for the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, echoed Tusk’s position in a coordinated statement.
    I think the major issue is now UK is heading for no-deal scenario by default. Imagine Uk asking Eu for extension so Corbyn might prepared his brexit 2.0 (custom union etc.) I can easily imagine EU27 asking him why they should waste any more time. UK had now 2+ years and in next two years we can easily be in the very same situation. Plus it is getting probably harder and harder to convince whole EU to yet again back off and let UK having some time..Especially when nobody has any plan in hand. As soon as EU grants the long extension, GE will be upon Uk as current situation is locked. We have no idea who would win, who would get majority and goverment and IF any plan will be produce in next two years with major support..

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47549607
    Michel Barnier @MichelBarnier
    The EU has done everything it can to help get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line. The impasse can only be solved in the #UK. Our “no-deal” preparations are now more important than ever before.
    UK might find itself in situation that even with no-deal being voted off today and asking EU for extension, it would be denied and only possible option will be no-deal or revoking article 50 before end of March...

    I personally hope for long extension and that the brexit will slowly die off as Dante said a few post above. However it is not up to me and cannot decide it for Uk. Uk has to put forward some kind of plan. Or admit defeat or at least something do else the no-deal scenario is happening...
    Last edited by Daruwind; March 13, 2019 at 07:44 AM.
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  8. #1288

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Not happening, the only option available that May can take is delay and pray. Everything else she could do wont happen because she wouldnt stay in office throughout it and at this point she's in survival mode.

    Hence the ball is in the EU's court.
    Last edited by Greyblades; March 13, 2019 at 11:08 AM.
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  9. #1289
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Uk is not Vatican...you cannot ask EU27 for extension just to pray
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  10. #1290

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    These people think they can legislate crimes and opinions away, they will try.
    Last edited by Greyblades; March 13, 2019 at 11:52 AM.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    UK might find itself in situation that even with no-deal being voted off today and asking EU for extension, it would be denied and only possible option will be no-deal or revoking article 50 before end of March...
    If parliament votes against no deal and for asking an extension and the EU were to reject that request, May's deal may be back on the table. I kid you not. It would be the only out left that doesn't mean cancelling Brexit alltogether.
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  12. #1292

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I want to say its impossible they will agree to her worse-than-no-deal deal, but to be honest I have no such confidence in the intelligence of the conservative party.

    Edit: apparantly the vote isnt legally binding, so three huzzahs for posturing.
    Last edited by Greyblades; March 13, 2019 at 02:33 PM.
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  13. #1293
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    So the rejection of no-deal amendment passed (again ), and thus the amended motion put forward that the UK should leave with a no-deal was resoundingly defeated. Both were significant majorities in terms of the parliamentary factions.

    What is most likely now is that tomorrow an extension will be voted on. The type of extension (as said by May herself) is most likely to be one that delays brexit for a significant amount of time (She has stated the UK would have to participate in the EU elections).

    The alternative is a short extension is sought specifically for May's deal... So its more than a given that we're going to get the long-version of the extension (or at least seek it, remember its for the EU to decide).

    The most likely outcome then for the reason for the long-extension (especially now the Malthouse compromise has been shown to have not nearly enough support- with brexiteers who had formally supported it, ditching it) will be as May has alluded to- Time for a second referendum. The question for that is likely to be May's deal vs Status Quo. What May is avoiding saying is also a General Election could also be called potentially. She is avoiding this though as a GE means she has to step down (Though whether she will...is up in the air)- thus for her the second referendum is more likely (bearing in mind she has stated she wants to stay on for a year after the brexit issue is resolved to do something domestically linked for her legacy- much to the annoyance and opposition of some in her party).

    The only significant way this track could be upset is if May is toppled prior to a GE being called. As her being toppled because of an impending GE implies the 'long' extension has already been secured and thus brexit essentially is dead unless its in some really soft pseudo-form.

    EDIT: Interestingly according to Kenneth Clarke, tonight would have even been a bigger defeat for the government. It was meant to be a free vote, but apparently at the last minute, May put a 3-line Whip on the vote... incredibly devious- but shows in reality, any support for no-deal is actually far smaller than even this result shows.

    But yeah, overall remain is looking more likely from an objective viewpoint as a way out for May and the Government (unless the Tories topple her literally in the next week- might happen) or some very soft version of brexit, that is some kind of customs union with single market access (and being a rule-taker).

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Edit: apparantly the vote isnt legally binding, so three huzzahs for posturing.
    This is true, however as the speaker has just read out about tomorrows business- the government have accepted the amendment and the result of the amended motion. So now unless you have essentially a change in leader for the Tories (or a change in government), the amendments are now policy, and we're following that track (seen by the fact that their now also preparing to get an extension- which most likely will be the long extension, as the government 3-line whip failed tonight so the alternative of the short-extension for May's deal is really a no-go).
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; March 13, 2019 at 03:13 PM.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    May must be a grandchild of Admiral Scheer. After leading the Hochseeflotte out of the line of fire of the Grand Fleet in Crossing-the-T-Formation, course reversed back in the line of fire, only to fall after additional hits taken back into course into the night. May is the most luckless and shortsighted PM after Chamberlain.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    And we will probably see vote#3 on the same matter next week before EU council....That would allow her to go to Brussel seeking only short term extension to put her deal in motion else it is long term extension and her end....
    Last edited by Daruwind; March 13, 2019 at 05:41 PM.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    What is most likely now is that tomorrow an extension will be voted on. The type of extension (as said by May herself) is most likely to be one that delays brexit for a significant amount of time (She has stated the UK would have to participate in the EU elections).

    The alternative is a short extension is sought specifically for May's deal... So its more than a given that we're going to get the long-version of the extension (or at least seek it, remember its for the EU to decide).

    The most likely outcome then for the reason for the long-extension (especially now the Malthouse compromise has been shown to have not nearly enough support- with brexiteers who had formally supported it, ditching it) will be as May has alluded to- Time for a second referendum. The question for that is likely to be May's deal vs Status Quo. What May is avoiding saying is also a General Election could also be called potentially. She is avoiding this though as a GE means she has to step down (Though whether she will...is up in the air)- thus for her the second referendum is more likely (bearing in mind she has stated she wants to stay on for a year after the brexit issue is resolved to do something domestically linked for her legacy- much to the annoyance and opposition of some in her party).

    The only significant way this track could be upset is if May is toppled prior to a GE being called. As her being toppled because of an impending GE implies the 'long' extension has already been secured and thus brexit essentially is dead unless its in some really soft pseudo-form.

    EDIT: Interestingly according to Kenneth Clarke, tonight would have even been a bigger defeat for the government. It was meant to be a free vote, but apparently at the last minute, May put a 3-line Whip on the vote... incredibly devious- but shows in reality, any support for no-deal is actually far smaller than even this result shows.

    But yeah, overall remain is looking more likely from an objective viewpoint as a way out for May and the Government (unless the Tories topple her literally in the next week- might happen) or some very soft version of brexit, that is some kind of customs union with single market access (and being a rule-taker).

    This is true, however as the speaker has just read out about tomorrows business- the government have accepted the amendment and the result of the amended motion. So now unless you have essentially a change in leader for the Tories (or a change in government), the amendments are now policy, and we're following that track (seen by the fact that their now also preparing to get an extension- which most likely will be the long extension, as the government 3-line whip failed tonight so the alternative of the short-extension for May's deal is really a no-go).
    I'm going to respectfully disagree with you Dante, and here's why: the simple fact is, there is only one way out of a No Deal Brexit, and that is the British parliament deciding collectively on an alternative course of action within the next two weeks. Something that for two YEARS, they have abjectly failed to do. The vote tomorrow, like today's vote, will be purely indicative, because it's the EU which makes the decision to grant an extension not Westminster. And they won't grant anything unless we have already decided what we will use it for. Unless there's a very good reason for a longer one, which in real terms means one thing and one thing only - May announcing a second referendum. May is not going to do that until she's tried at least one more meaningful vote because she still genuinely believes that her deal is viable, an idea which has been given a major boost tonight. In essence, the only realistic scenarios now are:

    1. The authority of the government totally collapses. This is a very dangerous and unpredictable scenario, which could lead to anything from a majority vote for a Norway model soft Brexit, to no deal by accident, to a new GE, to a People's Vote. All of those could lead to a delayed departure date, except of course No Deal.

    2. The DUP and rebels finally fall into line (something which very nearly happened on Tuesday) and the deal is voted through at the last possible moment.

    I personally think the latter is ultimately what will happen, because I can't see a path to a GE (for obvious reasons), a second referendum (seriously, we want to go through the last three years again? Everyone will realise that this was the only sensible choice but only when it's already too late), or a Norway model (which would be completely pointless as it's Brexit in name only), which are necessary prerequisites of an extension.

    So basically, it will either be No Deal, or May's Deal, and there won't actually be a real extension at all despite tomorrow's vote. That is the way things are headed imo. And No Deal is unthinkable. There is of course one major curveball that could be thrown, and that would be May resigning before the 29th. Given the state her health is in, I actually think this is a real possibility - she could announce her resignation date for a couple of months' time, but in reality her successor could take the reins way before then. That could be a pathway to her deal, this time headed by a more persuasive and calculating leader, passing.
    Last edited by Copperknickers II; March 13, 2019 at 05:44 PM.
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  17. #1297

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Why do you say the capitulation of the rebels and dup are close?
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    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Well if anything, UK will know after EU council summit. Nothing will change before it. All information are known...May still have chance to put up the deal after summit for yet another vote. In case EU will not offer her any kind of extension....
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Copperknickers II View Post
    I'm going to respectfully disagree with you Dante, and here's why: the simple fact is, there is only one way out of a No Deal Brexit, and that is the British parliament deciding collectively on an alternative course of action within the next two weeks. Something that for two YEARS, they have abjectly failed to do. The vote tomorrow, like today's vote, will be purely indicative, because it's the EU which makes the decision to grant an extension not Westminster. And they won't grant anything unless we have already decided what we will use it for. Unless there's a very good reason for a longer one, which in real terms means one thing and one thing only - May announcing a second referendum. May is not going to do that until she's tried at least one more meaningful vote because she still genuinely believes that her deal is viable, an idea which has been given a major boost tonight. In essence, the only realistic scenarios now are:

    1. The authority of the government totally collapses. This is a very dangerous and unpredictable scenario, which could lead to anything from a majority vote for a Norway model soft Brexit, to no deal by accident, to a new GE, to a People's Vote. All of those could lead to a delayed departure date, except of course No Deal.

    2. The DUP and rebels finally fall into line (something which very nearly happened on Tuesday) and the deal is voted through at the last possible moment.

    I personally think the latter is ultimately what will happen, because I can't see a path to a GE (for obvious reasons), a second referendum (seriously, we want to go through the last three years again? Everyone will realise that this was the only sensible choice but only when it's already too late), or a Norway model (which would be completely pointless as it's Brexit in name only), which are necessary prerequisites of an extension.

    So basically, it will either be No Deal, or May's Deal, and there won't actually be a real extension at all despite tomorrow's vote. That is the way things are headed imo. And No Deal is unthinkable. There is of course one major curveball that could be thrown, and that would be May resigning before the 29th. Given the state her health is in, I actually think this is a real possibility - she could announce her resignation date for a couple of months' time, but in reality her successor could take the reins way before then. That could be a pathway to her deal, this time headed by a more persuasive and calculating leader, passing.
    That's a fair argument there mate and well reasoned too. But i'm working on the assumption that their will be some kind of consensus on what the 'long extension' (which will be voted on, but the EU has to agree to indeed) will be for. I say this because the rhetoric of May and the brexiteers has radically changed over the last 2 or so months. Her big emphasis is that Parliament is in danger of 'not respecting the will of the people' (i.e. long delay and then referendum). This i suspect is because that is her fall back option (Considering the legacy issue here too), essentially throw the thing back to the public after 'trying' and presenting them with her deal vs remain.

    In this context May cannot be blamed (again in terms of legacy) for not following through with the referendum as its still 'her' deal that will come to epitomize brexit. She may indeed (depending on how nice historians are to her ) come out looking like the noble pm, fighting against the odds to deliver the will of the people, who in a last ditch attempt went 2nd ref and lost/won it. Its not a politically bad move, especially as we're seeing brexiteers now accepting that a second referendum could be the way forward so that they get 'a' brexit.

    Also you have to bear in mind a lot is waiting on this tomorrow-
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8821716.html

    Commons speaker John Bercow has indicated he will rule on whether Theresa May is allowed to repeatedly make MPs vote on her Brexit deal after it was twice defeated.On Wednesday Mr Bercow said “a ruling would be made” on the matter with parliamentary convention barring a government from bringing the same motion back to the house over and again.
    His comments set him on course for another clash with Ms May’s administration, with government advisors believing they could “disapply” any ruling he makes if they win a commons vote on it.


    Read more



    It comes after cabinet ministers and Ms May’s aides suggested she will bring the withdrawal agreement she negotiated with Brussels back to the house for a third time after it was defeated by 149 votes on Tuesday.
    Mr Bercow made his comments after he was questioned about the matter by Labour MP Angela Eagle, who said it would be “out of order” for the government to bring the deal back for a third vote.
    The Speaker said: “There are historical precedents for the way such matters are regarded. I don’t need to treat of them now and no ruling is required now.




    Bercow could potentially block May from bringing back her deal to Parliament. This essentially means that a 'new way' will HAVE to be found in parliament, or May takes her deal back to the people in a second referendum. I don't know what will happen here honestly, but if Bercow does allow May to bring back her same deal (Which is now up in the air in fairness, as technically constitutionally a government bringing back the same legislation over and over would set a rather bad precedent for future circumstances if not blocked now- i.e. a Corbyn government and re-nationalization of the energy sector- i make no political stance on this, but parliament isn't exactly going to be happy if he could just keep barraging the same legislation over and over without any actual real changes) even then, its likely the default option will be 'second ref' or GE (for use of the time) as the fall-back. So the conversation with the EU from May's point will be to offer up the need for more time to get her deal through, and the back up to reassure the EU is promise some kind of vote (at GE or Ref level).

    I think 'no-deal' now is politically nightmarish (let alone the actual consequences), but when you have parliament clearly saying 'no', the EU doing its best (in reality or perception, it doesn't matter) to also in that circumstance say 'we tried and gave so much lee-way' a no-deal would be entirely the fault of the Conservative government- and then we can que up the factors that make this politically toxic for them as a party (especially now with the 'Independent group' waiting to welcome centrists with open arms- indeed that Groups survival politically relies on one of the big two parties have a major split from brexit) and for May as her legacy. These are things that she won't let happen i suspect given how all her recent moves and stubborness are concentrating on legacy.

    So hence her now frequently bringing up the second referendum (as you rightly say a GE is problematic for her and her position), its laying the groundwork by controlling the narrative of it to say 'i didn't want this, but you forced me and like a good servant of the public i obeyed' as the second ref is THE only real way she could get her deal through right now. In that context of May's deal being brext vs status quo remain, well. It would be harder for her to get on board both leave voters (considering public hostility to her deal) and what opinion polling seems to indicate is the swing group of now remainers. She might be able to, but its an up-hill struggle, and May has so far been absolutely terrible in any kind of public debate/vote.

    EDIT: Something perhaps unpopular, but May's deal for the record i think is from a purely theoretical (in practice its worse for the UK than now) perspective is actually the best shot brexiteers have of achieving a brexit. A no-deal would likely see them politically marginalized in short order and EU membership back on the table asap due to the lack of preparation and ongoing issues with us trying to secure trade agreements. Thus she does offer the only alternative that does not see the UK tied into the EU in a 'serious' way. Again i think her deal is objectively terrible, but its interesting to see how both Brexiteers and Labour (who still technically support respecting brexit, though Corbyn has been under mounting pressure since the Indy Group formed and Tom Watson formalized his 'social democratic/blairite' faction of 140 MP's within the Labour party) are playing their own political games with this (So is May of course). But May's deal is probably the 'best' option for those who want brexit, and want in a post-brexit UK to not promptly be kicked out of office due to the consequences of a no-deal and the other issues that will inevitably be blamed on brexit despite perhaps not having much to do with it (Global slowdown for instance- but we all saw how effectively that can be wielded politically by how Cameron controlled the narrative for Labour).
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; March 13, 2019 at 07:19 PM.
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  20. #1300
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It's amazing how some conservative politicians over there are still saying that taking no deal off the table is a "bad bargaining strategy". I guess they have difficulty coming to terms with what has proven to be a massive error of judgement on their part regarding the UK's bargaining position.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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