Originally Posted by
Copperknickers II
I'm going to respectfully disagree with you Dante, and here's why: the simple fact is, there is only one way out of a No Deal Brexit, and that is the British parliament deciding collectively on an alternative course of action within the next two weeks. Something that for two YEARS, they have abjectly failed to do. The vote tomorrow, like today's vote, will be purely indicative, because it's the EU which makes the decision to grant an extension not Westminster. And they won't grant anything unless we have already decided what we will use it for. Unless there's a very good reason for a longer one, which in real terms means one thing and one thing only - May announcing a second referendum. May is not going to do that until she's tried at least one more meaningful vote because she still genuinely believes that her deal is viable, an idea which has been given a major boost tonight. In essence, the only realistic scenarios now are:
1. The authority of the government totally collapses. This is a very dangerous and unpredictable scenario, which could lead to anything from a majority vote for a Norway model soft Brexit, to no deal by accident, to a new GE, to a People's Vote. All of those could lead to a delayed departure date, except of course No Deal.
2. The DUP and rebels finally fall into line (something which very nearly happened on Tuesday) and the deal is voted through at the last possible moment.
I personally think the latter is ultimately what will happen, because I can't see a path to a GE (for obvious reasons), a second referendum (seriously, we want to go through the last three years again? Everyone will realise that this was the only sensible choice but only when it's already too late), or a Norway model (which would be completely pointless as it's Brexit in name only), which are necessary prerequisites of an extension.
So basically, it will either be No Deal, or May's Deal, and there won't actually be a real extension at all despite tomorrow's vote. That is the way things are headed imo. And No Deal is unthinkable. There is of course one major curveball that could be thrown, and that would be May resigning before the 29th. Given the state her health is in, I actually think this is a real possibility - she could announce her resignation date for a couple of months' time, but in reality her successor could take the reins way before then. That could be a pathway to her deal, this time headed by a more persuasive and calculating leader, passing.