Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Daruwind]

So in our middle Europe, opinion is changing to that UK is heading for hard brexit. My original article is not in English, but i found pretty similar one in English, main points are similar:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...brexit-in-june

So our expectation are, May will spend next 2-3 weeks by pretending or even trying to get new deal. But she cannot get better deal without some sacrifices. Plus looks like EU will prefer preparing for hard brexit than negotiation new deal without clear certainty of passing such deal in UK parliament. .. But even if May manages to get new deal or even push original deal, there is indeed tons of legislation to be passed. So either way one month is not enough. So extension is pretty much sure thing, however prediction are, May will not be able/have power to ask for longer extension..that would look like she is evading brexit and shorter extension is meaningless. So estimations are about June. Multiple extension are unlikely from EU side but even from UK side as brexiteers want to move on. And given current goverment record for past few months....it won´t be enough.
Comparison is Titanic. UK is heading towards iceberg, it is still a few meters away, however nobody is willing to drastically change course despite everybody seeing that film....

Of course it is just one possible scenario. However most likely given current course and unless something major happens...

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Brexit become more and more an Monty Python movie.

May travels to Brussels.

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/stat...32963543875584

[NorseThing]

I think you're misinterpreting the backstop. It's a guarantee by the UK to the EU that if the deal goes through, the Irish border issue is going to be resolved. To make do with a promise rather than an actual solution is a concession by the EU. Asking to drop the backstop just means demanding an even bigger concession.

I did not misunderstnd a thing. I simply stated that the UK needs to get agreement with Ireland and the backstop issue goes away. It should never have negotiated with the entire EU in the first place. The issue is with the UK and Ireland. I am not certain, but this seems to be the problem between PM May and parliament on the exit agreement that cause it to fail.

[Daruwind]

I did not misunderstnd a thing. I simply stated that the UK needs to get agreement with Ireland and the backstop issue goes away. It should never have negotiated with the entire EU in the first place. The issue is with the UK and Ireland. I am not certain, but this seems to be the problem between PM May and parliament on the exit agreement that cause it to fail.

I´m not sure it is so easy. You can change Friday Agreement but that could be tricky explosive stuff. Then you can have hard border with border checks and everything but who knows if that would not again spark violence. That is main issue everybody si trying to prevent.

Ireland is part of EU and UK is leaving EU. You cannot have open border. It is similar proposition like having open border with Ukraine, Belarus... not gonna happen. And UK nor Ireland can change EU27 norms. I hear Uk´s politician saying it is about goodwill but we are not talking about some charity but about trade, protecting customers in whole EU and such things. Sorry but you cannot have cake and eat it at the same time..

[Aexodus]

The EU’s dogma of indivisibility and inflexibility is the main stumbling block here.

[Elmetiacos]

The EU’s dogma of indivisibility and inflexibility is the main stumbling block here.

The main stumbling block is the "red lines" May adopted and refuses to shift from, which leaves the UK having to attempt to create a customs frontier without creating a customs frontier. There is no way round this logical impossibility.

[Mayer]

The EU has a hardline stance and wants to discourage leaving the union. Hence, i was certain that Hard Brexit was bound to happen.
I would have preferred giving the UK full access to the european common market without membership and open borders. This just means losses for both sides and alienates the british even more.
Also the german mainstream politicians are absolutely crazy, they think they can teach the UK what they should be doing and that they should ignore the will of the people.

[95thrifleman]

The EU has a hardline stance and wants to discourage leaving the union. Hence, i was certain that Hard Brexit was bound to happen.
I would have preferred giving the UK full access to the european common market without membership and open borders. This just means losses for both sides and alienates the british even more.
Also the german mainstream politicians are absolutely crazy, they think they can teach the UK what they should be doing and that they should ignore the will of the people.

It worked in Ireland. They hd a referendum the EU didn't like and under pressure re-run it and got the "correct" result.

The EU thinks they can do the same with brexit, play hardball till we cave in and run a second brexit referendum.

[Aexodus]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...deologues/amp/

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A group of top German economists has told the EU to tear up the Irish backstop and ditch its ideological demands in Brexit talks, calling instead for a flexible Europe of concentric circles that preserves friendly ties with the UK.

Brussels must “abandon its indivisibility dogma” on the EU’s four freedoms and come up with a creative formula or risk a disastrous showdown with London that could all too easily spin out of control.

A joint report by the influential Ifo Institute and universities across Germany and Europe warned that Brussels may be deluding itself in thinking that the EU has the upper hand in all respects or that the British will inevitably capitulate before March 29.

“In a standard game of chicken, the actor who loses the most will dodge first. Can the EU really be sure that losses are sufficiently asymmetrically distributed that it ‘wins’ this game?” the report asked.

“This is a very dangerous game, both for the UK and for EU. It is wiser to take the threat of a hard Brexit at face value and react accordingly. Recognising that a hard Brexit is in no one’s interest and that it would cause irreparable political as well as economic damage, we call both on the UK government and the EU Commission to rethink their ‘red lines’ and return to the negotiation table,” it said.

The report implicitly rebuked the European Commission for mishandling its negotiations with Britain and for trying to use the legal advantage of the Article 50 process to dictate a harsh settlement, with little regard for long-term strategic and diplomatic interests. “Since 2000, the United Kingdom paid a net contribution to the EU budget of €76bn. One may argue that this fact alone merits a fair treatment of the second-largest European economy,” it said.

The report is led by Clemens Fuest and Gabriel Felbermayr from the Ifo in Munich but includes the chairmen of the advisory boards of both the German finance and economics ministries.

It proposes a new supranational trade body in which the EU and Britain both are members with full voting rights. It would cover goods but exclude services, intellectual property, foreign investment, or social areas such as health.

This has features in common with Jeremy Corbyn’s proposals for a permanent customs union with an element of UK co-decision. The difference is that Britain would not be an adjunct to the EU’s arrangement.

Both sides would be joining a new entity, dubbed the "European Customs Association’". The authors suggested that the European Court might be the final arbiter but accepted that disputes could equally be resolved by a bilateral tribunal - akin to the EFTA court - if this was unpalatable to Parliament.

Such a customs association would amount to a revolution in EU affairs. Brussels would be giving up a degree of control over an area that is already part of the EU acquis. This would go against the teleological thrust of an ever more integrated superstate structure that has prevailed for half a century.

The EU’s trade officials are the shock troops of the European Project. The plan is unlikely to be accepted, but is indicative of the shifting mood in senior policy circles in Germany. There is a growing sense that the EU has been captured by an ideological priesthood.

It is failing to adapt to the realities of a complex Europe that is pulling in different directions and must be managed with supple statecraft. “We have two visions over what Europe is going to look like in the future and they are in conflict. This is what Brexit is all about,” said Prof Felbermayr, the lead author.

“I am very angry about what has happened. Everybody in Europe is pointing the finger at London and blaming Theresa May, but nobody has been questioning whether Brussels has been doing the right thing,” he said.

“From the German point of view we need Britain as hedge against countries with protectionist instincts like France and Italy. The British are closer to our liberal free-market tradition. We also need Britain in this customs association because it makes Europe’s GDP 20pc larger and gives us more bargaining power with China, India, and the US.”

Growing dissent in Germany also reflects worries that a no-deal Brexit could lead to a serious economic shock and crystallise the eurozone’s long-festering problems, starting with a pan-eurozone banking crisis and a fresh Italian debt drama.

Italy fell into recession in the second half of 2018. It is the third slump in a decade and each time the debt ratio climbs closer to the point of no return for a country with no sovereign currency or monetary instruments.

An earlier study by IW Institute in Cologne warned that a worst-case hard Brexit could slash German exports to the UK by 57pc, with serious disruption to supply chains and a huge loss of sunk investments.Germany’s economy is already struggling with the slowdown in China and emerging markets. A blow on this scale at this juncture would push it over the edge into a sharp contraction.
The Ifo-led report said the EU must stop trying to shoehorn Britain into a customs territory where it is reduced to a rule-taker with no say. This is unworkable over time. It will lead to friction and must break down in acrimony. “If it is going to have any credibility, it must offer mutual benefits,” said Prof Felbermayr.

The EU’s current plan replicates the failed "Turkey model". Ankara has to accept tariff reductions whenever the EU does trade deals with other countries or blocs, but does not secure automatic reciprocation from these countries. “It is a colonial relationship and Britain would be in the same position,” he said.

The report said the EU needs a profound shake-up. Its habit of imposing a ‘one-size-fits-all’ integrationist regime on reluctant countries must be challenged. “In the long run, the current model may be inherently unstable,” it said.

Europe’s tut-tutting over cherry-picking or "cakeism" evades the core issue. If countries are not allowed to participate in the European economy on a partial footing, they will seek allies elsewhere and gravitate to hostile camps. “It is a question of economic self-interest. Putting obstacles is irrational and strategically unwise,” said the report.

The authors said the EU doctrine of the four indivisible freedoms - goods, services, capital and labour – is dogma with no grounding in economic science. Under the standard Heckscher-Ohlin and Mundell trade models, free movement is necessary only for currency unions.

The report has some shrewd observations as to what might actually happen in a no-deal rupture. Britain would not impose a hard border in Ireland. The EU would then be in an awkward predicament. If it compelled Dublin to erect border infrastructure against its will, it would face an Irish nationalist backlash.

It would also face demands for financial compensation at a time when it might not be able to count on all of the UK’s £39bn exit fee. Prof Felbermayr said Britain might immediately tear down its global customs barriers and opt for unilateral free trade - at least for a while - leaving European exporters struggling to compete in the UK markets against the cheapest products in the world.

If so, the chaos at customs posts would chiefly be on the EU side, at their ports. They would not be ready to handle rules or origin and clearance procedures on such a scale, causing havoc to EU supply chains.

Prof Felbermayr said European companies would be up in arms, blame their own governments and pressure the EU to drop the tariffs: “I don’t think anyone in Brussels has really thought this through.”

German economists have said that the EU’s dogma, the indivisible four freedoms (goods, capital, services and labour) needs to be scrapped in favour of a more flexible formula.

The 4F is too inflexible for a continent as diverse as Europe. A one size fits all policy does not work.\

I found this funny wee quip on reddit.

“I don’t think anyone in Brussels has really thought this through.”

The European Medical Agency is going to have to pay out for 25 yr lease because they did not include an early exit clause in their 2011 lease because they never thought the UK would leave.

There is a heck of a lot of hubris in Brussels.

You can read the think tank’s original press release here, advocating for dropping the backstop and instead having a customs association. Here is their full proposal: http://www.econpol.eu/publications/policy_brief_12

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

“We propose a model for the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union for the post-Brexit era that ensures close economic ties and avoids a hard Irish border,” they say. “Our aim is not to define a first-best solution but rather a politically feasible approach that minimizes economic costs.”

The model proposes:

1. The backstop provision in the withdrawal agreement is dropped.
2. The United Kingdom permanently delegates all trade policy matters in goods to a newly created European Customs Association (ECA) in which the EU is also a member. Neither the EU nor the UK pursue independent trade policies, and the ECA represents them the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the same way as the EU has done until now for all 28 EU members.
3. The UK has voting rights in the ECA, as do all other member states. Together with the other members of the ECA it mandates the EU Commission to negotiate trade agreements with third parties.
4. Decisions are taken with double majority as defined in the Lisbon Treaty, and the European Court of Justice (in extended form including all participating countries) continues to supervise all law- and policy making in the field of trade.
5. The ECA covers all ‘classical‘ areas of trade policy, such as tariffs, quotas, rules of origin, trade defense, etc. On these issues, the EU has exclusive competence.
6. Areas in which the EU has no exclusive competence and in which countries have veto rights (trade in services, intellectual property, direct foreign investment, audiovisual and cultural services, and social, educational and health services), should not fall under the ECA. During a transition period, the pertinent provisions in the EU treaties continue to apply. For the future, arrangements in these areas are made by means of one or several supplementary bilateral agreements.
7. In existing trade agreements with third parties, provisions pertaining to ‘classical‘ areas or areas covered by bilateral agreements continue to apply to the UK, as well as those currently or in future negotiated.

In other news the EU has scrapped 99% of all duties with Japan. Why can’t we get that kind of deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47086737

[mongrel]

In other news the EU has scrapped 99% of all duties with Japan. Why can’t we get that kind of deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47086737

Because the UK has immovable red lines aimed at solving political rather than trade imperatives and set a ridiculous deadline by invoking article 50 far too early. Now if we were to scrap Brexit and start again............

[neoptolemos]

In other news the EU has scrapped 99% of all duties with Japan. Why can’t we get that kind of deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47086737

You already have as part of the block of 28 countries that have a collective projective power as a trade partner. You will leave this agreement though because some of your countrymen are leaving in a dream with these "Rule Brittania", and other nationalistic nonsense....

[Dante Von Hespburg]

In other news the EU has scrapped 99% of all duties with Japan. Why can’t we get that kind of deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47086737

Mongrel summed it up pretty well, add to this that we have a government which by all accounts is genuinely rubbish at its job seemingly and a lack of trained negotiators. Also as with everything, trying to mimic terms of trade that the EU has gotten is nigh impossible for the UK considering the large power imbalance, add to this that in the short-term a post-brexit UK with the way things are heading (I.e. totally inadequate preparation and 0 actual deals being made and not remotely enough time now left to properly do anything about this) will be in a significantly weaker position that a post-brexit UK would be if we'd have actually taken the time to prepare, but instead the Conservatives chose 'attempt to stop party from splitting' as the key goal.

So we could...if we just were *insert hipster accent here* 'beeetter' . Which given current contexts is not set to happen for at least through the next GE and beyond (Lets not pretend even a Labour win will result in a unified government considering a very similar divide between Corbyn wanting brexit and his version and Labour Centrists/Blairites demanding the opposite of ever-closer alignment with the EU from the outside now...or indeed new referendum to take us back).~

EDIT: It would appear the 'Malthouse compromise' is gaining traction with meetings having taken place between Conservative leavers and remainers. It essentially is a 'we need more time but want to dodge having to take the political flak for extending article 50- so we're going to beg for a 'standstill' period instead possibly up until 2021, where we continue to pay in and be part of the EU, but prepare to leave after 2021' Ooooor we put forward May's same deal only this time try and get the EU to agree to remove the backstop issue.

Someone who is cynical would call the Malthouse compromise merely more 'kicking the can down the road'. However its clear the UK needs far more time to get its act together. So either this or extending article 50 (Pragmatically the same thing- but politically a 'standstill period' sounds better to brexit voters it is deemed than an 'extension period'.

[Aexodus]

David Trimble, former leader of the UUP, the first First Minister of NI and architect of the Good Friday Agreement, is taking the government to court because he believes the backstop violates the GFA. Personally this has merit, as integration into the Republic and away from the UK is legally only allowed with NI’s consent.

It’ll be interesting to see where this goes.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/new...-37781408.html

[NorseThing]

IF this causes the Backstop to be dropped from the EU agreement, good for Trimble. This was the fundamental error of the P May negotiation with the EU. The negotiation should have always be to acknowledge what has happened, but to not incorporate other agreements into the exit agreement.

[Cyclops]

The EU’s dogma of indivisibility and inflexibility is the main stumbling block here.

How dare they insist a country leaving the Union leave the Union? UK wants RoI to have open borders with a non union state, while insisting on the inviolability of its own borders (will Dublin have to enforce ULK immigratio fro m its own side? Its a seriously stupid policy). Mate your post makes no sense, like most of the British players in this farce.

The EU has a hardline stance and wants to discourage leaving the union. Hence, i was certain that Hard Brexit was bound to happen.

I think you are right.

I would have preferred giving the UK full access to the european common market without membership and open borders. This just means losses for both sides and alienates the british even more.

Its true but I think Brussels is playing a longer game, and there's more to come. They will probably proceed against the numerous royal tax havens the UK protects.

Also the german mainstream politicians are absolutely crazy, they think they can teach the UK what they should be doing and that they should ignore the will of the people.

I think they don't care about the will of the British people, I think they want to scare the PIGS who might want to renegotiate membership for debt relief. They are probably prepared to take financial pain to inflict worse on the UK so Greece etc don't get any clever ideas.

[Elmetiacos]

As predicted, Operation Blame Johnny Foreigner has commenced with the latest snarl from Arlene Foster, in preparation for when May comes back yet again having got nothing of consequence.

[mongrel]

As predicted, Operation Blame Johnny Foreigner has commenced with the latest snarl from Arlene Foster, in preparation for when May comes back yet again having got nothing of consequence.

Much of the British elecorate is daft enough to fall for it too. I provide evidence of one person who genuinely thought that one would use more petrol if one mneasured distance in km instead of miles.. That is level of daftness that still exists in this country.Like that young person who felt it was much better for us to divide the £ into 240 pennies instead of 100 and further organise them into 20 groups of 12 pennies, before adding another 12 pennies (48 farthings) to round it up to a guinea. Damned foreigners inventing a way of counting out exact change in a couple of seconds. Wonder what he's saying now that millions of Britons don't even have two pennies to rub together?.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Interesting stuff today:

May's speech- for anyone who saw it, is not going to remove the back-stop, but is instead merely seeking to edit it- This stabs the Conservatives coalescing around the 'Malthouse Compromise' in the eye and has upset the DUP and brexiteers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

This is in the context of this- Which honestly i think is something we all expected (at least i did) given that the EU is concerned with internal stability.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...ar-Theresa-May

In the case of 'no-deal' there now essentially will be a hard-border. In reality. Its no longer a case of 'no-one will put one up' (which never was the case honestly anyway given again the concerns that a no-deal Britain be put into as damaging a position as possible due to the geopolitical and stability implications- the EU would not accept Britain still benefiting from its single market booms, and Britain would also not allow it due to immigration issues- i.e. an open backdoor).

So with this in mind, a hard-border will likely indeed lead to problems. The Government could have had some political capital from this to spin it as the EU hounding Britain...if the government hadn't already been so damn incompetent and quite frankly a disgrace with how its conducted its negotiations and domestic policy. You are starting to see now the Conservatives realize that they will get blamed (regardless of what happens), and so are chugging up to try and blame the EU (Ala Graylings moronic comments...which in fairness was actually him trying to blame the EU for why the British public hated him... he was wrong of course, he is just and needs to go, but whatever helps him sleep at night) for the fallout.

Its rather too late though, and with a UK public still polarized one way or the other it won't have the clout it needs to save them.

[Aexodus]

If we leave with no deal? Who will put in place a barrier? The EU? Irish Nationalists won’t like that.

[mongrel]

If we leave with no deal? Who will put in place a barrier? The EU? Irish Nationalists won’t like that.

We don't have all the necessary vires or regulations to leave in March and impose the necessary duties taxes, immigration, fishery and border controls. I've mentioned this before. The EU does because nothing will have changed. Brexit isn 't Europe's problem , it's ours. The solution in my view, ditch Brexit for now and get a Royal Commission or something to work out the feasibility of leaving outside of party politics. That or a Citizen's Assembly.

May is literally wasting time on an issue which can't be touched because the Good Friday Agreement presumes EU border controls exists between the UK and Eire.