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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #41
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Legend View Post
    That is Europe's MO: hold one referendum after another until you get the result you want.
    And for the British government to do exactly that on the issue of Brexit would destroy whatever credibility they had. True. And because Labour is committed as well, Brexit is politically impossible to back out of. If I had to place a bet I'd say they're headed for an extremely watered down version of Brexit which they'll have to pay through the nose to get. A "worst of both worlds" deal, just to get a nominal Brexit.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  2. #42
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Adar View Post
    Personally I loath Jeremy Corbyn and even if I enjoyed Dantes in-depth description of events I disagree about Jeremy Corbyn being "nordic left". He is more similar to the moralist left wingers of the Social Democratic parties in the Nordic parties. These people carry influence in national politics but their contributions to any Nordic model are limited due to the same reasons that Jeremy Corbyn was a backbencher between 1983 and 2015. They lack the ability to compromise and only get into power in times when polarisation force more centrist politicians to collaborate with the fringes of the political spectrum.

    Currently it looks to me like Theresa May wanted to grab power by both hands and in doing so she have quickly established herself as unacceptable to most of the population. The Tory Brexiteers distrust her due to her lack of transparency and blame Brexit failures on her rather than Brexit being idiotic while the centre and left rallies around the only serious alternative they have, which unfortunately happens to be Jeremy Corbyn. Are the Liberal Democrats really that bad?
    That's a fair enough position mate. I think for me the concentration on economics, a mixed economy and national owned companies regulating strategic areas of infrastructure (Power, Water, Broadband, Rail) alongside a tax overhaul, creation of a national investment bank and provision of a National Education Service from birth to grave (The only sensible way to deal with the UK's unique structural issues stemming from automation and the gig economy as in essence the UK currently is a predominantly low-skilled emphasized service economy which is vulnerable to these rather radical changes over the short and mid-term as the Bank of England report summarized)- these from my stance are what makes a lot of what he is offering Social Democratic policy (Over socialism... or communism as some seem to imply) and are things that are found across Europe, but particularly Germany and the Nordics- though in fairness i understand that actually there is a fair bit of significant differences between you guys- iirc Sweden is more neo-liberalist from the 1990s, while Norway is rather more state orientated (The Sovereign oil fund they have was an amazing idea.... compare that to the UK that squandered most of our oil boom on short-term tax breaks courtesy of Thatcher that had no lasting wealth creating impact)- so i have no arguments if you place Corbyn as left-wing within a Nordic Social Democratic party, its more from the UK perspective whose right-wing economics are faltering in the face of structural issues (Social mobility has collapsed with the government not giving a hoot, home ownership and all those things i mentioned before) Corbyn offers an alternative that has a basis of working well for us potentially.

    Perhaps more to the point is Labour (and arguably the SNP in fairness) are the only two currently to actually offer any kind of in-depth solution. The Conservatives briefly tried to fall back on how 'free market capitalism' helps pull people out of poverty historically...which fair point indeed, if the current political context wasn't that their economic policies had just thrown more people than ever before in recent decades into the poverty line, and are actually with universal credit fiasco killing people (According to the University of Oxford- not my words i know they can be controversial!)- so the 'status quo' rings incredibly hollow.

    The Liberal democrats- are an interesting point. I was a supporter myself for a long time and they did some good it turns out in the coalition in constraining the Conservatives, alas they were awful spinners- thus all their victories the Tories claimed, and a lot of the disasters the Conservatives very smoothly blamed on them. But that doesn't avoid the fact that when in government they did put party and power before what they had been voted in for. Blank support for austerity was economically inept- particularly as we now know it was indeed an ideological choice- Osbourne the 'then' Chancellor has gone on record saying that Labour under Brown dealt with the recession incredibly well, their plan was working (Some austerity, borrowing and investment) and he almost decided to stick with it- but then saw that austerity was in his words 'an alternative' (A cynic might say the Conservatives saw an easy way to gut public services which they know electorally couldn't pass)- and i think its here (and the tuition fee fiasco) that really let them down and tarred them. They since have Vince Cable, who while i like- is tarred with that coalition brush, being the business secretary at the time. The student vote they relied on (and betrayed given the position of their manifesto) is too late to get back considering Corbyn's nabbed them. So for the foreseeable future their left floundering- taking such a hard stance against brexit also didn't really help- as Remainers would always flock to one of the big two due to the political system- Copperknickers II's analysis of this issue is very well put in regards to the globalists vs nationalists.

    So yeah- Lib dems rather shot themselves in the foot- which was a shame as they more than any other party would have been able to force reform on the UK's political system- Labour for all its economic ideas will steadfastly refuse to change FPTP and allow the UK to become 'more democratic'- because the current system benefits them- same with the Conservatives. Indeed the latter are actually talking about cutting down the number of MP's by 50 and merging constituencies, which will give even less representation to regions and differing political viewpoints- its not officially stated, but i tend to agree with some commentators that the limiting of MP's is a way to 'make' FPTP 'work' again by lessening the likelihood of minority governments as now and prevent potential political instability by watering down regions.

    In other news- AN AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED -Removes in practice the option of a hard-brexit by tying the UK in a no-deal scenario to single market regulations, divorce bill is paying for the EU budget and not merely Britain's financial obligations as they see it- I mean essentially the UK's caved on nearly all things- we have managed to make sure that the European Court of Justice will not be indefinitely a court of last resort (duh?)...but according to Gove a few minutes ago- It will have oversight for a period of time- almost a decade in reality.

    https://www.ft.com/content/4ebcc00e-dbd4-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482


    So this mornings big news- an agreement reached...and boy is it interesting.

    May has effectively 'got rid' of the option for a so-called 'hard brexit'- there is now no way the UK can merely walk away and do its own thing, as we have signed up for in the case of a 'no deal' scenario abiding by all regulatory alignments to the single market indefinitely

    The deal text says if Britain and EU fail to settle the terms of their future relationship, the UK will maintain “full alignment” with key EU internal market and customs rules which underpin trade across the Irish border.
    So...while not being in the single market, we shall take on all of its regulation.

    For the N.Irish border issue, May has in essence kicked it down the road- the DUP have warned:

    Mrs Foster said the DUP had worked “right up until the early hours of this morning to secure changes to the document”. But she also made clear her reservations about the final text, saying it could “prejudge the outcome” of discussions among the cabinet, the Conservative party and the DUP about what a future trade relationship should look like.
    But the 'no deal' scenario that has us now in essence mirroring the single market basically means their shouldn't be too much of an issue (As unlike last time with merely N.Ireland having a different system mirroring the EU- it is now the whole of the UK that will do it).

    This is going to be erm...interesting to see just how she'll get this passed her own party, particularly the brexiteers. Gove has already been on this morning dodging questions about how this correlates with what the Conservative Leave group have been after. I suspect May has gone around and said 'This or Corbyn' to them to get them to toe the line.

    The UK will also pay the EU a divorce bill somewhere between
    While the net estimates for this settlement vary between €40bn and €60bn, the UK pledge in effect means no EU member state will lose out as the EU’s long-term budget is discharged. Mrs May started negotiations saying Britain had no legal obligation to pay any exit bill.Although agreement contains no figures, during talks the UK estimated a net payment of €40bn-€45bn while the EU put it at around €55bn. When contingent liabilities, such as loans to Ukraine, are added the bill rises to an estimated €55.5bn-€65.5bn.
    So far more than the £20 billion the UK advocated, and also not merely for our 'obligations'.

    A final note Britain has:

    However, in a compromise that has alarmed some Brexiters, Britain did pledge to indefinitely pay “due regard” to relevant European court rulings on the citizen rights enshrined in the treaty.
    So basically i tend to agree with the Britian's own assessment that:

    Even British officials admit the overall terms are closer to opening demands made by the EU, including the size of Britain’s exit bill, the breadth of protected citizen rights and commitments made regarding the Northern Ireland border.
    The EU got its way. Now i don't think anyone here will be surprised by that honestly. What will be interesting now is the political fallout for May and the Conservatives in general- Will her own party accept this (Bearing in mind indeed, even yesterday Mogg's chastisement of his own leader to sticking to their red lines- while arguably this could be said to fulfill that- in practice its rendered a 'no deal-walk away' no longer an option and has drawn all over those lines)- moreover will those among the public who voted leave accept this. If we're honest this is very much thus far going to be the so-called 'soft brexit'. So will be interesting. Do the brexiteers fear Corbyn more than they want to stick to their principles? I think the fact so much has been kicked down the road is going to be an issue- as well as already differing interpretations of what this means being bandied around- while May argues that we won't be in the single market- leaked EU documents have stated that we will be during the transition- i think for May its a lot due to the fact that it will only be just before Christmas when the Cabinet all sits down and actually discusses for the first time what they want from brexit and what the future UK relationship will look like- talks that again have been kicked down the road much like the Irish border due to how divisive they are within the government.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; December 08, 2017 at 07:07 AM.
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  3. #43
    NorseThing's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    For those blasting the May government fro sitting still, you may now blast the May government for doing a deal with the EU to move a step closer to exiting the EU.

    The bargain came as May compromised on the biggest challenges facing Britain during its split. A disagreement over borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland nearly derailed the deal this week. British factions have also tangled over the amount of money they will have to pay as they leave the European Union as well as who will guarantee the rights of E.U. citizens after the divorce.
    On those issues and a host of others, Britain has been forced to capitulate to the European Union after saying earlier this year that it held the upper hand in the negotiations. Instead, British negotiators have found a largely united European Union that sees little need to give in to London's demands.
    article continued via link https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...D=ansmsnnews11

    My personal guess is that they should have made a clean break period. But then I am an American and I dislike the multilateral agreements in general.

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    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by NorseThing View Post
    For those blasting the May government fro sitting still, you may now blast the May government for doing a deal with the EU to move a step closer to exiting the EU.
    Indeed. All that capitulating and being stabbed in the back by Arlene Foster must have been very tiring. I'm sure her hard Brexiteer colleagues will be delighted that she's effectively just guaranteed the EU that we will have a soft Brexit. There are two things that might happen now:

    1. Theresa May has a meeting with her Cabinet, she tells them she's angling for a soft Brexit with de facto continued membership of the single market and customs union. Boris and co back down and bend the knee, and give Dame Theresa of Winterhold, mighty vanquisher of Brussels, free reign to make Britain another Norway, paying the EU for access to the market without having any say on EU law and policy. There may be some wiggle room for concessions to the hard Brexit wing, but May will still be out on her ear come 2019 and most likely Boris will end up prime minister, at least during the runup until the next election when he might be defeated by Jeremy Corbyn.

    2. The same meeting goes ahead, and Boris and co tell her to get stuffed and inform her that Boris is officially challenging her to a leadership election because she has betrayed the will of the people. He tries everything possible to negotiate a magic fairytale unicorn-land Brexit where we renege on most of the guarantees in this week's agreement (which is not legally binding and which explicitly says everything in it is subject to a successful negotiation including the Irish border guarantees). Boris withdraws us from the process when the EU tell him he can't have his cake and eat it, and we have no deal Farage-style hard Brexit.

    Number 2 would be as disastrous as Number 1 is unlikely. Laura Kuenssberg seems to be of the opinion that the Tories are rallying around May and have realised they can't get what they want and so her position is secure and a soft Brexit is now acceptable to the vast majority of Tories. I highly, highly doubt this is the case, because when Leave voters realised they have been conned and nothing is actually going to change as regards immigration and the money we send to Brussels, they will demolish the Tories, so there's a lot of pressure on hard Brexit MPs even beyond the crippling weight of their delusions about the potential for Brexit to be a success.

    Personally I think that we're going to see someone or something come out of the woodwork by the time the next election rolls around that will be a total gamechanger. I can't say exactly what, but a lot of MPs are keeping a low profile until all the chaos of Brexit negotiations blows over, and once everything is finalised in one direction or the other people are going to come out on full attack mode about all the other issues that Brexit has been deflecting attention from.
    Last edited by Copperknickers II; December 08, 2017 at 05:50 PM.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

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  5. #45
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    That's not how May will spin things. She will cling to the interpretation that the fact that it's agreed there's no deal until the whole thing is agreed actually means the UK got what it wanted all along, which was to include trade deals in the negotiations from the start, instead of settling the divorce first, and only then start talking about the new relationship like EU wanted. That might help keep the hard brexiteers quiet. But it's all postponing crunch time.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    That's not how May will spin things. She will cling to the interpretation that the fact that it's agreed there's no deal until the whole thing is agreed actually means the UK got what it wanted all along, which was to include trade deals in the negotiations from the start, instead of settling the divorce first, and only then start talking about the new relationship like EU wanted. That might help keep the hard brexiteers quiet. But it's all postponing crunch time.
    I think the key issue was the money. The EU must have surely known that the other issues, especially the Irish border, could not reasonably be confirmed before negotiations had taken place.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

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    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by NorseThing View Post
    My personal guess is that they should have made a clean break period. But then I am an American and I dislike the multilateral agreements in general.
    The Northern Irish border has been used as a way of keeping the UK in EU "Full Alignment" is in effect that Northern Ireland will remain within the Single Market. And as NI will not be separated from the rest of the UK , thanks to the DUP, it means that the UK will remain within the Singe Market not have a trading relationship with it from outside. We will need to comply with all of its requirements, including open borders but without the benefit of changing these requirements because we won't be part of the EU. Not only that, but because we are bound up so closely to the EU Single Market, we won't be able to negotiate any trade deals with any country outside the EU. Which presumably is the reason is that none have been attempted so far and Mr Davis hasn't commissioned any detailed studies!!

    The British people that voted for Brexit have been "sold a pup" by the Conservatives, something that may have been the intention from the inception of the referendum rather than making a detailed case as part of an election. The result of this so called "Soft Brexit" is that the City can break free of any new regulations on financial services which come about from the EU moving towards a federal model. However, much else about the detrimental impacts of membership will remain the same, be it that the British public will no longer have a voice in the EU.
    A complete scam!
    We adhere to European Laws, as well as any new ones created post Brexit for at least 8 years if not indefinitely. We adhere to the Customs union and it's existing regulatory framework. We adhere to the EU's security policy and proceed with its plans of military unification. And all this whilst we have no representation within Brussels and continue to pay them billions of pounds in a divorce settlement, whilst public service budgets in this Country continue to be cut.

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    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    The British people that voted for Brexit have been "sold a pup" by the Conservatives, something that may have been the intention from the inception of the referendum rather than making a detailed case as part of an election.
    Being critical of politicians is fine, but I don't like the innocent victim attitude. The electorate put the conservatives in power (sort of) and voted "yes" to an idea based on emotion rather than any reliable insight into the consequences.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Being critical of politicians is fine, but I don't like the innocent victim attitude. The electorate put the conservatives in power (sort of) and voted "yes" to an idea based on emotion rather than any reliable insight into the consequences.
    That's a good establishment way to spin it, "its all the fault of the dumb voters who put their cross in the wrong box, never mind there is always a way to give them a second chance" But perhaps, just perhaps these voters never really had a choice anyway and the referendum was a clever piece of manipulation, because the political establishment couldn't be as dumb as the voters, right!

    Here is one plan Mr Davis and his colleagues are sure not to have forgotten
    Brexit: Govt tells City it plans to break with EU regulation
    https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/bre...eu-regulation/
    Last edited by caratacus; December 09, 2017 at 09:05 AM.

  10. #50
    HannibalExMachina's Avatar Just a sausage
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Its not my fault my vote comes back to bite me, why am i not surprised. Nothing of what happens now is a surprise to remainers, so brexiters dont get to play dumb. Own your actions.

  11. #51

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Remainers seem to be blind (some by choice, some by ignorance) to the fact that the problem is with UK's political establishment and its ineptitude, rather then with nation's wise and rational choice to abandon the sinking ship while they can.

  12. #52
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Remainers seem to be blind (some by choice, some by ignorance) to the fact that the problem is with UK's political establishment and its ineptitude, rather then with nation's wise and rational choice to abandon the sinking ship while they can.
    You can hardly celebrate the Brexit as the most rational and smartest of choices. They will end up depending on continental Europe just the same without having an official say regarding the matters at hand.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; December 09, 2017 at 12:08 PM. Reason: Offensive part removed.

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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    You can hardly celebrate the Brexit as the most rational and smartest of choices. They will end up depending on continental Europe just the same without having an official say regarding the matters at hand.
    Europe itself isn't likely to go anywhere, and so is then opportunity to establish trade agreements. But EU is quite unstable. With the utmost disregard for the interests of European population and native Europeans by pro-EU politicians and EU leadership, EU becoming thing of the past is in majority's best interest.

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    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Europe itself isn't likely to go anywhere, and so is then opportunity to establish trade agreements.
    What does that mean? You think there will be an alternative structure for trade, i guess. There will be. It will be called diplomacy and it will root in the times when countries woundrously survived without the EU.

    But EU is quite unstable. With the utmost disregard for the interests of European population and native Europeans by pro-EU politicians and EU leadership, EU becoming thing of the past is in majority's best interest.
    You say they have the utmost disregard for our interests? How can you be so cruel and insensitive, your sayings actually might cost the job of some learned 'Europolist'.

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    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    That's a good establishment way to spin it, "its all the fault of the dumb voters who put their cross in the wrong box
    You know you can put your own box on the ballot if you're not happy with the ones that are there. If you don't own your democracy, you kind of deserve to be bamboozled.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    What does that mean? You think there will be an alternative structure for trade, i guess. There will be. It will be called diplomacy and it will root in the times when countries woundrously survived without the EU.
    .
    Sadly, UK diplomacy rests with one Boris Johnson. I need say no more.
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    HannibalExMachina's Avatar Just a sausage
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    god save the queen, and the rest of you poor sods.

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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    You can hardly celebrate the Brexit as the most rational and smartest of choices. They will end up depending on continental Europe just the same without having an official say regarding the matters at hand.
    It's almost as if you've fallen for the rethoric that EU = European Continent and its Citizens and History.
    Take some time seeing European Continent as separate from EU (can be surprisingly difficult due to all the propaganda flooding the mind) but if doing this for long enough, the Brexit will seem a completly different thing.

    It was a middle finger towards EU Elites, not towards european citizens.
    It will be seen that, as used, the word ‘Fascism’ is almost entirely meaningless. In conversation, of course, it is used even more wildly than in print. I have heard it applied to farmers, shopkeepers, Social Credit, corporal punishment, fox-hunting, bull-fighting, the 1922 Committee, the 1941 Committee, Kipling, Gandhi, Chiang Kai-Shek, homosexuality, Priestley's broadcasts, Youth Hostels, astrology, women, dogs and I do not know what else.

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  19. #59

    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    You can hardly celebrate the Brexit as the most rational and smartest of choices. They will end up depending on continental Europe just the same without having an official say regarding the matters at hand.
    Interesting statement, given that the EU itself is completely dependent on other countries (not least Russia) for energy. One long fuel embargo from Russia would be enough to wreak havoc on all european industries.

    The Truth is Hate for those who hate the Truth.

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    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: Brexit-time to scrap it and start again?

    May just lost a crucial vote on the Brexit Bill in parliament. She's in a whole heap of trouble now. Doesn't necessarily mean Brexit won't go ahead but makes it a whole lot easier for parliament to sabotage things. I think hard Brexit is pretty much off the table now, the final bill will need to be scrutinised and agreed on by the whole government including rebels and the anti-hard brexit camp can hold the hard brexiteers to ransom.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

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