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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #441
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Have you not noticed that May's government has no plan beyond kicking the issue into the long grass?

    Why should Britain leave, if as it is likely , going to be damaging to its interests? Parliament should decide, it is sovereign, wasn't that reason why Brexit was mooted in the first place, so it may gain control?
    This is of course the same parliament that has been surrendering legislative powers to Brussels without any reference to what the people wanted. Yes, of course they should be trusted in carrying out the wishes of those who voted to leave the EU.

    It seems to me the same broom that sweeps the country clean of the cobwebs of the EU, should do the same with the British electoral system to get governments that are truly representative. But given that the only ones being given the broom to do the job, are those same politicians such as Theresa May. Little wonder it remains a dusty silken mess. After two years of inaction, to have a PM announce today, that good progress has been made with negotiating a trade deal, but that all she needs is a further delay of many more months, is just insulting to the electorate's intelligence.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    But our President is elected for 5 years only. And while I don´t like him, he has no real power in our system and this is his last election possible and probable as his health is literally degrading...

    I respect British vote, it is their free will to do as they wish. I´m merely stating fact that even majority in democracy can change the mind. That is actually how debate and discussion should work in democracy right?
    There was still a majority by which Brexit was supposed to be implemented. If the outcome of this referendum was not honoured then the result would be to seriously undermine the confidence in the democratic system. The divisions in society between those who voted differently would become very sour indeed if another referendum was set. Admittedly the standard of debate at the time of the referendum was very poor indeed, which has only served to make the situation worse and cloudy the waters. However, the vote was to leave the EU not about trade deals or anything else. In practice there is insufficint time anyway for another prior to March, when the UK leaves the EU.
    Last edited by caratacus; October 22, 2018 at 05:51 PM.

  2. #442

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    There was still a majority by which Brexit was supposed to be implemented. If the outcome of this referendum was not honoured then the result would be to seriously undermine the confidence in the democratic system.
    Wouldn't tax increases, continued austerity and needless job losses resulting from a botched Brexit (rather than the promise of a paradise with £350 every week stuffing NHS coffers) have the same effect?
    Last edited by mongrel; October 22, 2018 at 08:04 PM.
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  3. #443
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Wouldn't tax increases, continued austerity and needless job losses rsulting from a botched Brexit (rather than the promise of a paradise with £350 every week stuffing NHS coffers) have the same effect?
    If we had left the EU two years ago, then there would be time to have had a change of government and changed policies, surely? What would a further two years delay create, in which the Country remains in limbo. A time in which there is even more business incertainty and an extra 25 billion payment to the EU and little left for the NHS or any other public expenditure. Those advocating another referendum want that delay to have one.

  4. #444

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    If we had left the EU two years ago, then there would be time to have had a change of government and changed policies, surely? What would a further two years delay create, in which the Country remains in limbo. A time in which there is even more business incertainty and an extra 25 billion payment to the EU and little left for the NHS or any other public expenditure. Those advocating another referendum want that delay to have one.
    One has already been informed that the UK cannot simply 'leave'. There is a tedious treaty process to follow. The cost of implementing Brexit is enormous. money better spent elsewhere.Not one single politician has articulated in clear and truthful terms what posssible benefit Brexit offers. There are some benefits to a tiny minority of the population, vulture capitalists and similar who would take advantage of any weakening oif employment rights, particularly TUPE , Whitehall civil servants (Brexit reversed cuts and has been great for promotion opportunities) and, preumably,smugglers.
    Last edited by mongrel; October 23, 2018 at 04:09 AM.
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  5. #445
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    There was still a majority..
    But is it now? For me the current majority has always the upper hand to anything old. Especially in politics...If you are building plans upon something as unstable something old, than you must take into account that opinion can easily change. I mean it in general, doesn´t matter which option won the vote...

    If we are not even 100% sure which side has current majority, there is probably something bad....
    Last edited by Daruwind; October 23, 2018 at 02:06 AM.

  6. #446

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    But is it now? For me the current majority has always the upper hand to anything old. Especially in politics...If you are building plans upon something as unstable something old, than you must take into account that opinion can easily change. I mean it in general, doesn´t matter which option won the vote...

    If we are not even 100% sure which side has current majority, there is probably something bad....
    Leavers are quite literally a dying demographic, wheras younger people who couldn't vote at the time of the referendum, but can now, are more likely to be remain. In that sense Brexit ideology has no future unless it delivers genuine material benefits to actual real people.

    According to polls, remain leads opinion right now, but perhaps not by enough to trouble the government.
    Last edited by mongrel; October 23, 2018 at 04:01 AM.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

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  7. #447
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Leavers are quite literally a dying demographic, wheras younger people who couldn't vote at the time of the referendum, but can now, are more likely to be remain. In that sense Brexit ideology has no future unless it delivers genuine material benefits to actual real people.

    According to polls, remain leads opinion right now, but perhaps not by enough to trouble the government.
    Yes, I gathered that's the plan, wait long enough for the old folks who voted Brexit to pop their clogs and then undertake another vote. How long though, another two, years, three, five perhaps? The same thinking that has had many of these buggers, who have worked all their lives, work until their 67 to qualify for a pension so as to pay for those that don't. Knowing full well that many more won't even get to such an age. Of course this will never be adnmittedly openly, such honesty is beyond those planning what is best for us!

    I agree the demonstration in London was impressive, but it did have some help from behind the scenes. European Alternatives helping to organise receiving 300,000 Euros from the EU Commission Citizen and Justice programme. The European Movement getting 350,000 from the Europe for Citizens programme of the EU commission. Whilst the National Union of Students got 20,000 of external funds, to bus students in from across the UK.

  8. #448

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    Yes, I gathered that's the plan, wait long enough for the old folks who voted Brexit to pop their clogs and then undertake another vote. How long though, another two, years, three, five perhaps? The same thinking that has had many of these buggers, who have worked all their lives, work until their 67 to qualify for a pension so as to pay for those that don't. Knowing full well that many more won't even get to such an age. Of course this will never be adnmittedly openly, such honesty is beyond those planning what is best for us!
    You can't compare this crop of old duffers to the heroic generation who not only fougt in the War and endured great hardship, before and afterwards, but voted for the NHS, nationalised utilities and the very pensions and job opportunities younger duffers enjoyed. Current oldies now have hippies in their ranks, demarcation jobsworths and those racist sods whose unions imposed colour bars on employers.People who enjoyed a fully funded NHS and free education who then decided to turn their backs on their parents and children by voting for policies that would deny the same for others, all for a handful of shares from Sid. But yes, if the Brexit ethos is largely swayed by the base prejudices of this group,who have no skin in the game, running a business or trying to earn a living, rather than living on benefits, which lets face it a state pension effectively is, then it is not going to last, is it?


    I invite any Brit who is not a venture capitalist , Whitehall Civil Servant or a hopeful fisherman, to describe in plain words what material benefit one can expect from Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    I agree the demonstration in London was impressive, but it did have some help from behind the scenes. European Alternatives helping to organise receiving 300,000 Euros from the EU Commission Citizen and Justice programme. The European Movement getting 350,000 from the Europe for Citizens programme of the EU commission. Whilst the National Union of Students got 20,000 of external funds, to bus students in from across the UK.
    Better these transparent sources than the 'assistance' of Russian trolls.
    Last edited by mongrel; October 23, 2018 at 12:27 PM.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

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  9. #449
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Russia and 20 other countries have moved to block the UK's WTO proposal to enjoy the same terms with the organization that we do now (As part of the EU) post-brexit. This essentially means that either we'll have to accept a much reduced position and schedule, or at best- we get it, but it takes years of wrangling. The 'No deal' brexit essentially is non-viable now.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...rade-m8025tqss

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...as-Brexit.html

    https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insigh...roposal-at-wto

    Sooo.... That's that then i guess. We're going to have to spend around a decade negotiating individually with each of the WTO members to accept either new terms, or try and get the current quotas we enjoy. The 'fast track' WTO option we'd hoped for has been cut off.

    EDIT: I wasn't going to make this political, but i couldn't resist... also kinda true, but the responsibility for this rather falls with the government. They've messed around for so long, back and forth with the EU (Actual potential allies) making silly whiny remarks and tying ourselves in knots domestically over unworkable plans (All factions needed to compromise essentially to get anything done and for it to be sustainable as i've banged on about before), that its almost as if they'd lost sight of what is essentially a rather hostile multi polar world out there, with a protectionist leaning environment, that has more difficulty for the UK than we are remotely prepared for as of yet.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; October 25, 2018 at 02:16 PM.
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  10. #450
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Russia and 20 other countries have moved to block the UK's WTO proposal to enjoy the same terms with the organization that we do now (As part of the EU) post-brexit. This essentially means that either we'll have to accept a much reduced position and schedule, or at best- we get it, but it takes years of wrangling. The 'No deal' brexit essentially is non-viable now.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...rade-m8025tqss

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...as-Brexit.html

    https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insigh...roposal-at-wto

    Sooo.... That's that then i guess. We're going to have to spend around a decade negotiating individually with each of the WTO members to accept either new terms, or try and get the current quotas we enjoy. The 'fast track' WTO option we'd hoped for has been cut off.

    EDIT: I wasn't going to make this political, but i couldn't resist... also kinda true, but the responsibility for this rather falls with the government. They've messed around for so long, back and forth with the EU (Actual potential allies) making silly whiny remarks and tying ourselves in knots domestically over unworkable plans (All factions needed to compromise essentially to get anything done and for it to be sustainable as i've banged on about before), that its almost as if they'd lost sight of what is essentially a rather hostile multi polar world out there, with a protectionist leaning environment, that has more difficulty for the UK than we are remotely prepared for as of yet.
    I understand that this was done from a single objection from one country out of 164 member states,. The other 19 are only stated reservations, NOT formal objections.

    Given the poor diplomatic relationship between the UK and Russia at the present time, this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. It is not insurmountable to overcome this objection if things improved and sanctions were used in negotiation. Developing good trading relations should always be the firm basis for diplomacy.

    This objection stemmed from a claim by them that as EU’s current tariff list hadn't been ratified by all WTO it could not be adopted by the UK.
    Russia blocks UK's post-Brexit tariff proposal at WTO
    https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insigh...roposal-at-wto

    The UK’s proposal to split its import quotas from those of the EU after Brexit has drawn an official objection from Russia at the World Trade Organization, MLex has learned.

    An objection from a single trading partner means that the WTO can’t certify the proposal until the problem is resolved. It might also force the UK to undergo the full procedure for changing its rates, rather than the simplified “rectification” procedure it has so far pursued.

    In a notice to the global trade body, Russia stated that the draft UK schedule of tariffs and quotas was inconsistent with its obligations “under several basic WTO provisions,” MLex understands.

    During a committee meeting at the WTO earlier this month, a Russian representative said that the EU’s current tariff list that hasn’t been ratified by all WTO members since Croatia’s accession to the bloc in 2013, therefore it can’t form the basis of a UK proposal for its post-Brexit schedule.

    “The Russian Federation reiterated that the resolution of the issue of certification of the EU schedule seems to be pivotal to proceed with the new UK schedule,” said a WTO official who was present at the meeting where Russia delivered its notice.

  11. #451
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    I understand that this was done from a single objection from one country out of 164 member states,. The other 19 are only stated reservations, NOT formal objections.

    Given the poor diplomatic relationship between the UK and Russia at the present time, this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. It is not insurmountable to overcome this objection if things improved and sanctions were used in negotiation. Developing good trading relations should always be the firm basis for diplomacy.

    This objection stemmed from a claim by them that as EU’s current tariff list hadn't been ratified by all WTO it could not be adopted by the UK.
    Not merely Russia objecting as far as i can see:

    Moscow along with more than a dozen other countries, which include the United States and New Zealand, have raised objections to the UK’s post-Brexit trade proposals.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...fs-theresa-may

    The rest your quite right have raised concerns. But the USA, Russia and NZ among others have objected according to the article.

    So its more than just a Russia-UK issue, though your quite right on reasons behind this regarding the deterioration of relations between us and them. Though whether its politically viable in terms of our future relationship with the US and EU to broach the issue of raising sanctions (Let alone domestically considering the response to the poisonings) is i'd say a key hurdle. This is probably one of the case studies that highlights the UK's lack of preperation, we're currently just entering into an era of mutli-polar powers and protectionist groups (China and Russia are both creating their own versions of the EU- or at least attempting to), It will be interesting the analysis of who the UK is going to hitch its cart to, particularly considering 'free trade' is in its cyclic regression (Though knowing this gov- i'd bet the analysis hasn't been engaged yet... and if it was, the findings are probably blocked...).

    The objection centers around that indeed, but also pragmatically is because there is no wish for the UK to enjoy the same privileges in the WTO that we've enjoyed with the EU's schedule. This is a rather large obstacle for us, pending a complete change of policy (Either accepting and renegotiating our own- which is lengthy, time consuming and will result in a far less favourable outcome than currently- so 'No deal' WTO terms is potentially is off-limits in the manner to which its been described, particularly if states want to make this difficult- also lets face it currently British negotiation has not been up to much as expected- though its natural given the botched together nature of our current apparatus).
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Russia and 20 other countries have moved to block the UK's WTO proposal to enjoy the same terms with the organization that we do now (As part of the EU) post-brexit. This essentially means that either we'll have to accept a much reduced position and schedule, or at best- we get it, but it takes years of wrangling. The 'No deal' brexit essentially is non-viable now.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...rade-m8025tqss

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...as-Brexit.html

    https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insigh...roposal-at-wto

    Sooo.... That's that then i guess. We're going to have to spend around a decade negotiating individually with each of the WTO members to accept either new terms, or try and get the current quotas we enjoy. The 'fast track' WTO option we'd hoped for has been cut off.

    EDIT: I wasn't going to make this political, but i couldn't resist... also kinda true, but the responsibility for this rather falls with the government. They've messed around for so long, back and forth with the EU (Actual potential allies) making silly whiny remarks and tying ourselves in knots domestically over unworkable plans (All factions needed to compromise essentially to get anything done and for it to be sustainable as i've banged on about before), that its almost as if they'd lost sight of what is essentially a rather hostile multi polar world out there, with a protectionist leaning environment, that has more difficulty for the UK than we are remotely prepared for as of yet.
    This is God's way of saying that the Foreign and Commonwealth Office should have led Brexit policy.
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  13. #453
    Diocle's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Seen what's currently happening in Europe (AfD in Germany, Salvini in Italy, Le Pen in France + Orban & C. in Austria, Hungary, Poland and others ..) I doubt in the next few months there'll still be any Union to which adhere ..

    .. but if the Britons will be kind enough, maybe the French would generously listen their proposals for a new defensive alliance against Mittelmächte.


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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    This is God's way of saying that the Foreign and Commonwealth Office should have led Brexit policy.
    Haha i approve of the phrasing . But yeah, i was reading an interesting article a few weeks ago on my now horrifically early and long commute to Landan, that the brexit department was created sucking in not the best talent, but was politically molded because of certain objections to branches and members of the civil service raised by brexit supporting MP's. Also of course because May wanted to neuter the Foreign Office so she could whip Boris (Though a fair move in terms of political rivalry, considering his abysmal showing in the post has effectively killed his political clout and chances of being the next PM among both the electorate and among Tory MP's).

    Quote Originally Posted by Diocle View Post
    Seen what's currently happening in Europe (AfD in Germany, Salvini in Italy, Le Pen in France + Orban & C. in Austria, Hungary, Poland and others ..) I doubt in the next few months there'll still be any Union to which adhere ..

    .. but if the Britons will be kind enough, maybe the French would generously listen their proposals for a new defensive alliance against Mittelmächte.

    I couldn't say here to the long term honestly, its' interesting how the EU will develop going forward. I think 'yes and no minister' to coin a phrase . I think the EU is set for changing, the Euro was (i feel) a bad idea without a centralized fiscal policy, and that its expansion (Led by Britain) to the East was premature, too much, too quickly. I think the most likely thing is that the EU will consolidate to its 'natural' state of being a North European power bloc, the links between France and Germany are fairly solid (They were indeed the EU's reason- German economic potential tied to French policy and protection- and essentially to stop the two natural rivals from screwing each other over internationally at every opportunity). Southern Europe will probably leave as will most of the East- which for the EU is probably a good thing in the long term due to the economic disparities and competing interests in terms of policy.

    The interesting thing of course about all this is China- heavily wooing some members like Greece currently. I wonder to what extent they'll manage to expand their sphere into Europe, and if we'll see a 'soft power' battle go on in Southern Europe between the EU and China for influence (as China successfully did in East Africa).

    Of course, i could be terribly wrong on predicting an EU break-up. Something that has been fascinating during the brexit process, is how even euro-sceptic politicians and groups are unified behind the EU in the negotiations (As they all have something to gain from brexit). 27 Member states have, despite Britain's best efforts (and to be fair to May she has tried incredibly hard to 'divide and conquer) have remained in lock-step, while its Britain that has spiraled into division. Whether this will last for the whole brexit process, i couldn't say. But its a level of EU unity that i never dreamed possible.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; October 25, 2018 at 03:18 PM.
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    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Not merely Russia objecting as far as i can see:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...fs-theresa-may

    The rest your quite right have raised concerns. But the USA, Russia and NZ among others have objected according to the article.
    The other countries did not register a formal objection, their issue relates to agricultural tarrifs, whereby the UK and the EU split the current tariff rate quota commitments that set import limits on sensitive goods such as beef, lamb and sugar. It would mean effectively reducing the amount that could be imported into Europe. Brexit should mean more trade with the rest of the world not less. One must therefore ask why would the UK government want to do this, unless it is a half hearted approach to Brexit. All this after all should have been examined two years ago! Leaving it to the absolute last minute seems very odd indeed.

    So its more than just a Russia-UK issue, though your quite right on reasons behind this regarding the deterioration of relations between us and them. Though whether its politically viable in terms of our future relationship with the US and EU to broach the issue of raising sanctions (Let alone domestically considering the response to the poisonings) is i'd say a key hurdle. This is probably one of the case studies that highlights the UK's lack of preperation, we're currently just entering into an era of mutli-polar powers and protectionist groups (China and Russia are both creating their own versions of the EU- or at least attempting to), It will be interesting the analysis of who the UK is going to hitch its cart to, particularly considering 'free trade' is in its cyclic regression (Though knowing this gov- i'd bet the analysis hasn't been engaged yet... and if it was, the findings are probably blocked...).
    Sanctions are not a very effective way of solving diplomatic wrangles and Russia has proved very robust in handling those undertaken by the West. However, I would say that the less than diplomatic language that was used by key members of the UK government have been as damaging as the sanctions themselves, and Putin has seen an opportunity for causing mischief, as is his way. Contrast this with the reaction to what happened in Turkey recently, for which comments have been quite wrongly muted. You are right the World is divided in major power blocs, but it has for some time. There is no reason to argue that a UK after Brexit cannot work closely with the EU when it suits our and their interests. In fact the country could act as a bridge bewteen countries outside especially if it became part of the Trans Pacific Trade bloc.
    The objection centers around that indeed, but also pragmatically is because there is no wish for the UK to enjoy the same privileges in the WTO that we've enjoyed with the EU's schedule. This is a rather large obstacle for us, pending a complete change of policy (Either accepting and renegotiating our own- which is lengthy, time consuming and will result in a far less favourable outcome than currently- so 'No deal' WTO terms is potentially is off-limits in the manner to which its been described, particularly if states want to make this difficult- also lets face it currently British negotiation has not been up to much as expected- though its natural given the botched together nature of our current apparatus).
    Given that there as so much kept from the press about these negotiations, I think you are reading too much into these resevations. It is obvious that countries are guarded about protecting their interests when it comes to a leading member of a competitive trading bloc deciding to break away and trade sepeartely, because there will obviously going to reamain strong tading links between the UK and the EU after Brexit. These member states seemingly were only given 3 weeks to lodge an objection! An attempt to cut and paste the existing EU tarrif rules has quite rightly been called out and one wonders what has been happening in those two years of May's government leading to this time.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    The other countries did not register a formal objection, their issue relates to agricultural tarrifs, whereby the UK and the EU split the current tariff rate quota commitments that set import limits on sensitive goods such as beef, lamb and sugar. It would mean effectively reducing the amount that could be imported into Europe. Brexit should mean more trade with the rest of the world not less. One must therefore ask why would the UK government want to do this, unless it is a half hearted approach to Brexit. All this after all should have been examined two years ago! Leaving it to the absolute last minute seems very odd indeed.
    Ahh cheers, i'll take that as several of articles have merely mentioned Russia with the rest complaining, while others imply rather slyly that they were also formal objections. The wanting to 'fast track' the split the quotas i assume was an attempt to dodge the bullet of the UK's short-term economic weakness, the power imbalances of some of the states we'll be looking to trade with (USA, China and co) and also i suspect to get around the expediency of time. Considering that such negotiations that have to happen now are going to take years.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUKKCN1MZ2CX

    So i'd say its a mix of domestic Conservative need, and attempt to protect Britain in the aftermath as best as possible. I'm fully agreed though that this is very much an issue that should have been looked at right at the beginning. I can't believe the government would be naive enough that given Britain's global presence their wouldn't be issues beyond the EU on the world stage- If not Russia, then even somewhere like Argentina who wanted a show of power for the domestic audience.

    Sanctions are not a very effective way of solving diplomatic wrangles and Russia has proved very robust in handling those undertaken by the West. However, I would say that the less than diplomatic language that was used by key members of the UK government have been as damaging as the sanctions themselves, and Putin has seen an opportunity for causing mischief, as is his way. Contrast this with the reaction to what happened in Turkey recently, for which comments have been quite wrongly muted. You are right the World is divided in major power blocs, but it has for some time. There is no reason to argue that a UK after Brexit cannot work closely with the EU when it suits our and their interests. In fact the country could act as a bridge bewteen countries outside especially if it became part of the Trans Pacific Trade bloc.

    I'm actually with you that sanctions when not properly applied and with a clear remit are poor tools for exerting soft power (For instance Britain has not put financial pressure on key Russian figures and Putin supporters as part of this, because The City of London is an independent institution that is not directly answerable to parliament- something i've only found out of late when looking into how Britain's financial network and tax havens work, really interesting. If highly undemocratic to some of the privileges afforded. The power bloc issue is something i'd argue is a recent development of the past couple of years in a clear way- Certainly since the Second Iraq war. Though i'm willing to hear a case for the challenges to US hegemony before this, while i know China has been an 'issue' for a while its only been over the past 8 years or so that its actually started to flex its influence, likewise i'd argue goes for the EU.

    I'd be interested your take on the Trans Pacific Trade bloc, your pro joining i gather? I've been interested in the potential, however they have a very clear aim to create over time an EU style single market, with the trade restrictions that would imply, that would rather prevent the global free trading Britain that some people want. However i see it as a benefit that we'd be able to magnify our clout through such an organization. I'm still holding out for a proper relook at the Commonwealth ...despite its impossibility given both China in Africa and the way the UK has mishandled relations with key players. The other nagging doubt though is the potential iirc for working rights and state powers to be watered down by TPP in its current form, which given the UK's wider issues i don't think will go down too well.

    Given that there as so much kept from the press about these negotiations, I think you are reading too much into these resevations. It is obvious that countries are guarded about protecting their interests when it comes to a leading member of a competitive trading bloc deciding to break away and trade sepeartely, because there will obviously going to reamain strong tading links bewwteen the UK and the EU after Brexit. These member states seemingly were only given 3 weeks to lodge an objection! An attempt to cut and paste the existing EU tarrif rules has quite rightly been called out and one wonders what has been happening in those two years of May's government leading to this time.
    This is a fair point, i might be indeed. Though i think from a UK perspective its quite a blow. The key thing now is time and Britain's exposure to a series of bad deals when we're in a weak position. Both feed into each other indeed, as i've seen some commentators now talk about sorting out the WTO terms potentially taking up to 10 years, though most say at least several. That's a heck of a blow economically, it also feeds into the UK not getting a 'good' deal from the WTO due to the political and economic necessity to plug things quickly. Moreover it puts May's 'no deal' into a new world of economic pain for us. So i do agree that this is the result of the governments now seemingly consistent incompetence and lack of planning (all stemming i'd argue from pressing article 50 far too early when having absolutely no clear clue of the scale of the task), but its more that its one further issue that we've essentially bungled/are in the process of bungling. The end deal under this government i personally feel is quite a terrifying prospect given how things have gone (That's a Norway-Vassal or thrown to a no deal while renegotiating WTO terms, we'll be everyone's economic vassal in certain respects during that case).

    Still fingers crossed for a GE soon, though it seems May survived the 1922 committee once more, the numbers even said to favour her getting her back-stop and co through on just Conservative MP's. In other circumstances, i would genuinely be impressed at her survivability (or to be fair the fact her opponents on both sides are split into small competing factions).

    EDIT: Apologies- its late and i'm knackered But i should have finished the point about sanctions- essentially while yep poor tools, their more useful for propping up domestic support or that of international partners- its arguably more to show that we're 'on side' with the USA and EU, than it is to actually hurt Russia- the extent that's useful to us of course is debatable, but they'll be ramifications if we unilaterally decided to put sanctions on the appeasement table.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; October 25, 2018 at 07:51 PM.
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  17. #457
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    The key thing now is time and Britain's exposure to a series of bad deals when we're in a weak position. Both feed into each other indeed, as i've seen some commentators now talk about sorting out the WTO terms potentially taking up to 10 years, though most say at least several. That's a heck of a blow economically, it also feeds into the UK not getting a 'good' deal from the WTO due to the political and economic necessity to plug things quickly. Moreover it puts May's 'no deal' into a new world of economic pain for us. So i do agree that this is the result of the governments now seemingly consistent incompetence and lack of planning (all stemming i'd argue from pressing article 50 far too early when having absolutely no clear clue of the scale of the task), but its more that its one further issue that we've essentially bungled/are in the process of bungling. The end deal under this government i personally feel is quite a terrifying prospect given how things have gone (That's a Norway-Vassal or thrown to a no deal while renegotiating WTO terms, we'll be everyone's economic vassal in certain respects during that case).
    That is what I´m saying whole time. And time is tickling which is another weak spot for Britain. If the Brexit was aimed at years 2025,2030...there would be plenty time to negotiate better deals in everything, EU, WTO... Basically when I look how lenghty the process to join EU is, I would expect similar decade long procedure to leave as well. And I don´t think other states will try to harm Britain. It is jsut the lack of time that will limit the terms of any deals.

    Actually was there any particular reason to press article 50? The only reasons i can think off is either to get more political points for actually doing it (politicians are concern with current problems/polls not with what will happen in decade after they are long gone from office...) or that the weak result was in dagner of being negated by other elections, referendum, whatever...

  18. #458
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    That is what I´m saying whole time. And time is tickling which is another weak spot for Britain. If the Brexit was aimed at years 2025,2030...there would be plenty time to negotiate better deals in everything, EU, WTO... Basically when I look how lenghty the process to join EU is, I would expect similar decade long procedure to leave as well. And I don´t think other states will try to harm Britain. It is jsut the lack of time that will limit the terms of any deals.

    Actually was there any particular reason to press article 50? The only reasons i can think off is either to get more political points for actually doing it (politicians are concern with current problems/polls not with what will happen in decade after they are long gone from office...) or that the weak result was in dagner of being negated by other elections, referendum, whatever...
    I know i keep banging on about it, and haven't yet since a post made here years ago been able to find it again, but there was a full-blown plan by a British civil servant on how the UK could leave the EU successfully and take as little economic and political flack as possible, it won an award indeed. But the time-scale envisaged was 15 years- most of which article 50 was not activated.

    The reason article 50 was activated so quickly depends on who you ask- May i think did so to secure her position as PM- she's tied her legitimacy and survivability to brexit. She arguably was under pressure by certain Leave factions within the Conservative party, though most actually would say it would be better to get it right, than just charge straight in with no plan. Another factor was that it would expose the Conservative party- who held the referendum as being incompetent as neither the government or official Leave campaign had actually come up with a plan for brexit in any real way, shape or form. Instead there was some back and forth blaming between the two.

    This is rather backed up by the sheer levels of secrecy that the government has attempted to conduct brexit under. Its gone to huge lengths to keep the public in the dark about as much as possible (Anyone still remember the 'we won't show our hand'- turns out we had nothing), while in complete contrast the EU are doing weekly open briefings and sharing thoughts and plans publicly. I assume the close vote and domestic situation played partly into this- again the sustainable legitimacy issue is a factor- as seen by how completely rabid some brexiteers (not all) got towards any kind of continued debate or opposition about brexit- the Media and MP's calling others 'traitors' and such.

    So perhaps too in this rather tense atmosphere it was felt that again for party unity it was better to push the button sooner rather than later- despite no plans being in place and no real thought having been given to the issue.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; October 25, 2018 at 08:01 PM.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Anyway, i´m quite curious to see how will develop public opinion in Britain. How I see it, if everything was going according to the plan...deal with EU, WTO trade deals, no problems with Scotlans, North Ireland....probably majority of people would be like "What the heck, no problems, so leaving EU was probably not big deal after all.." Instead it is really more and more emanating aura of big mess, incompetence... And there is the beauty of politics, people..voters will always blame the politicians even if the same people voted for them the previous term.

    I still have the diabolic idea in had that will closing final date and probably growing unsatisfaction among people, someone would/could easily ride the hype with quick campaign "Vote for me,I will cancel all this nonsense and put the responsibles into Tower!" After all people are usually more active in negative campaigns..against something.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    I still have the diabolic idea in had that will closing final date and probably growing unsatisfaction among people, someone would/could easily ride the hype with quick campaign "Vote for me,I will cancel all this nonsense and put the responsibles into Tower!" After all people are usually more active in negative campaigns..against something.
    You'd need 326 such people. The only single individual with the sort of autonomy and power to do such a thing alone in britain is appointed by god.
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