Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Daruwind]

So a few news today:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...020-referendum
SNP looking to get 2020 Scotting referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eferendum-vote
Lib dem tabling Second referendum, might get Labour support?

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ion-eu-britain
Nice article where is Johnson weakness

And finally
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...er-concessions
We might have deal tomorrow. Looks like Bojo is doing major concessions to EU (NI technically staying in EU) so what will MPs say to that?

[Daruwind]

MPs likely to push for vote on confirmatory referendum on Saturday, says senior Labour MP

On the World at One Andrew Bridgen, one of the 28 Tory “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times, said he thought the pro-remain opposition would try to seize control of the Commons timetable for Saturday to allow MPs to vote for a referendum on any Brexit deal secured by Boris Johnson. He said:

What they want is to humiliate the prime minister by preventing him from even bringing forward a vote on his deal, and forcing him to send the letter in line with the Benn Act ... They may well bring forward a confirmatory referendum which, in my view, would be disastrous.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, was interviewed on the programme immediately after Bridgen. Asked if he knew whether what Bridgen was saying about opposition plans was correct, Benn at first did not answer the question directly. But he did say, if there were an agreement, he would expect to see it brought to the Commons on Saturday. When the presenter, Sarah Montague, asked a second time if Bridgen was right, Benn replied:

There are many MPs who are in favour of a confirmatory referendum, as am I. If the government brings a deal before the house on Saturday, then it would not surprise me at all if an effort were made to say, okay, but subject to a confirmatory referendum. That is not a surprise to anyone given the growing support that there is for that idea.

Asked if that would involved opposition MPs trying to take control of the order paper (by using standing order 24), as opposed to just tabling a confirmatory referendum amendment, Benn said that would depend on how the government planned to organise the vote for Saturday.

[Muizer]

Your quoting the Guardian probably means everything will be dismissed as "Mainstream Media doing the bidding of the Liberal Elites".

Now I would not disagree that the rapid expansion of the EU has had unpleasant side effects especially for those whose jobs were open to cheap competition from abroad but consider:

The original economic conception of Brexit is to make Britain a low-cost lure for investment. Brussels doesn’t like the sound of that. The more aggressively Britain intends to price itself relative to the rest of Europe, the harder the EU will make it for British goods and services to be sold within the single market. (What Johnson isn’t telling British voters is that the competitive edge he promises will be achieved by internal devaluation – shaving down wages, in real terms, and working conditions.)

But on the other hand "Take back control", "Sovereignty", "Fewer foreigners", " the Elites (but Boris is a great guy)".

It's not dissimilar to people willingly accepting spiffy uniforms, marching behind a flag and receiving medals as if they are meaningful compensation for being ordered about and risking life and limbs in someone else's war.

[Daruwind]

I actually believe Bojo will get some deal. But as usual, to get EU27 on board means worse conditions for UK and harder times in parliament. Plus how much time MPs will have in Saturday to study the actual deal? A few hours?

[Ludicus]

From the news,

Asked whether there could be a Brexit extension, MP Steve Baker said Boris Johnson confirmed the UK will leave the EU on 31 October.

But...There will be no deal tonight.
Jo Maugham QC has announced a legal action to ban the government from putting the withdrawal agreement before parliament,

Unless and until Section 55 is repealed by the UK Parliament it is simply not open, as a matter of law, for the United Kingdom to enter into such an agreement.We believe the Government's proposed Withdrawal Agreement is contrary to section 55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/22/section/55/enacted … (1)

(1) UK Public General Acts 2018 c. 22 PART 6 Section 55

Single United Kingdom customs territory
(1)It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain.
(2)For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended.

[Muizer]

DUP rejects deal 'as things stand'

So ... what now. As things stand, a deal might be reached but it will face the exact same situation in Parliament that May's deal did, with the DUP as well as a number of Conservatives voting against.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Indeed, it seems Brexit is now mired not due to the remain factions, but the different leave groups all wanting their own particular interpretation.

However, it appears (for now at least) that Labour and the Lib-dems may actually vote for Boris's deal, providing he puts it in a second referendum- that deal or remain.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-says-minister

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/br...es-vote-815468

It might be the only way out currently for Boris, however things change so fast its a bit difficult to say with certainty now- for instance there are reports over the last hour that Corbyn has said he won't support any second referendum that comes before a GE, however, that also he will not whip his party on this vote- so it looks like Boris may have to rely on Labour and Lib-dem remainers to get his deal passed and accept a second referendum, which is going to be fun especially as again no polling for it over this whole time gives anyone a 'sustainable majority', its likely remain might win now sure, but it doesn't matter as it'll still lead to political instability as in an era of small to no majorities since 2010, courting small groups of voters and backbenchers matter...and brexiteers (and remainers) are not a merely a 'small group' but a key potential pool to draw in support and voters from that traditionally parties might not be able to reach.

Incidentally Labour also may not vote for Boris's deal due to his removal of the commitment to keep working rights, protections and regulations up to EU standards. So there's that.

There is also the fact that from leaks so far, Boris has compromised....a lot. Some stuff coming out yesterday (though of course the full legal text is not available publicly nor has their been a 'proper' briefing to the public) implies that his deal is actually so much worse than May's in regard to the Irish backstop- some even said that he took her backstop and has instead made it permanent. Beyond the change in commitment for alignment to protect workers rights it seems essentially we might be looking at May 2.0 here in nearly all ways.

There is then of course the saga over the Benn act- in the courts and parliament the Government has admitted it will seek an extension and abide by its terms, however the propoganda is that we're still leaving on the 31st 'do or die'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur...8NOIAiF3OBfugc

However at the same time, as you can see above- the Conservatives printed leaflets for the coming snap-election all heavily imply that indeed Boris has asked for an extension, and feature a very specific attack on the Brexit party- so it seems currently Boris is going to in reality (behind the rhetoric that i suspect he's using to try and drum up support and scare wavering backbenchers on all sides of the house) he'll be sending the extension request and buckling down to face the fall-out politically, which potentially might be the loss of the snap-GE to Labour as the Brexit party eat up Conservative vote share (Another leak was of Downing Streets internal party polling- if Boris leaves with a deal before the 31st he may potentially get the biggest majority we've seen in a decade..not hard when the only comparison this decade is Cameron's majority of 12...likewise though leaving after the 31st has the real prospect of seeing the Conservatives back in opposition to the tune of 1997).

[Daruwind]

Labours said they might back up deal if it will be put to second referendum vs remain option.

Honestly I think even if Bojo gets the deal, there will be troubles down the road. Either it will be way worse than May´s deal abd thus have problems passing parliament or it will be subject to referendum. It simply won´t pass to allow 31st to be Brexit day.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Well speak of the Devil- Boris has just announced on twitter that we have a deal. No details beyond it 'takes back control', however...

The DUP have just said they still do not support it. It seems Boris is now decided to have a clash with them (and thus potentially the ERG who have stated that they take into account what the DUP say heavily...). It does seem this brexit deal will be fought over by the different factions who support Brexit.

Boris's only hope of getting this through Saturday (and even then it might be a knife edge) is to get officially Labour on board with that second ref amendment. It's literally May's position, we'll see if Boris can navigate it better than she did.

EDIT: Farage just on BBC News- he hates Boris's deal, feels its a betrayal of Brexit. There is not enough change to May's deal (indeed the new 64 page text is an addendum to May's withdrawal agreement, not a complete renegotiation) and that what has changed has essentially sold out Ireland to the EU and is still the EU having significant control over the UK ability to do rules, regulations and legal divergence. He's both right and wrong here (and misses the fact that domestic sovereignty is never absolute anyway when a state is engaged in the global economy)

[Muizer]

Heh, from Barnier's press conference I can see why the DUP don't like it. It looks as if NI will remain aligned with the EU, but the responsibility for maintaining that status will rest with the NI parliament. Thus, basically both the EU and Westminster have washed their hands of the sticky responsibility of maintaining the Good Friday agreement and are saying to NI: right, you better do as your told or any fallout of a returning hard border will be on you. That puts the DUP in the unenviable position of being pushed onto the defensive from all sides. How are they going to justify sinking a Brexit deal when their only argument is they don't want to take a responsibility that everyone else will accept is theirs.

[Elmetiacos]

EDIT: Farage just on BBC News- he hates Boris's deal, feels its a betrayal of Brexit.

Because if Boris gets the deal through, he has just ended Farage and his pals as a political force forever. The Brexit Party want us to stay in the EU so they can moan about us still being in the EU while getting paid to do so by Strasbourg. It seems that with no way of avoiding the "Benn Act" Boris has been forced to fall back on re-heating the Chequers Plan after all.

[caratacus]

Well speak of the Devil- Boris has just announced on twitter that we have a deal. No details beyond it 'takes back control', however...

The Devil is in the detail, and as yet we know hardly anything. Johnson making his way to the EU headquarters now for the meeting before anybody really knows what this deal is about, typical!

Lat minute triumph of negotiation or a rehashed reheated May's deal to be served to Parliament with a different garnish, we wait and see.

[Daruwind]

And probably the most important part -

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said the EU will grant another Brexit extension.
This is hugely significant, because, if the rest of the EU27 agree - and it is not clear yet whether he is speaking on their behalf - it means MPs will effectively be faced with a choice between this deal and no deal

EDIT: question is, if this is real thing in case parliament again ends in such way....Juncker is defending deal but it is not his say whether EU council (EU27) will or not grant extension..

[caratacus]

Question is, if this is real thing in case parliament again ends in such way....Juncker is defending deal but it is not his say whether EU council (EU27) will or not grant extension..

Is it in anybody's interest to extend this busiess any further? We have had a three years over which Brexit has dominated politics, both in GB and in Europe. There is real instability in global economics, Germany and France are both feeling the effects. This and problems with Turkey over Syria and migration, I think the 27 leaders will just be glad to get an agreement sorted so they can focus on other things.

I'm really not undertsanding Nigel Farge comments so far. Rather than look with anticipation at the contents of this deal or being critical of certain aspects. He's immediately jumped on Juncker ruling out another Brexit extension. Surely if he genuinly wanted to leave without a deal he would be pleased with that. It is in everybodies interests though that the UK leave with a good trade deal with the EU, many in parliament don't want to leave at all and will probably block it on Saturday.

"So an unelected bureaucrat says "NO extension, take the new treaty or just leave" He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itesef to be a thuggoracy power without accountability. Appaling people" Niger Farage

[Greyblades]

Only thing confirmed I have seen save ireland is the 38 billion still being in it, which bodes poorly for the content.

If this is chequers in all but ireland then farage and the dup are right to oppose it, this will get very nasty should such pass for the tories, hell theyre still not going to have a good time if chequers lite doesnt.

[caratacus]

Only thing confirmed I have seen save ireland is the 38 billion still being in it, which bodes poorly for the content.

To be realistc, without paying at least the greater part of that money you just aren't going to get a trade deal with the EU, even if the UK had left the EU without a deal. They need the cash! which is why it is a big incentive to get things sorted now. Yes, it is a huge payment, but if it pays for a good trade deal with the rest of the EU countries then it will be worth every penny.

[Greyblades]

Hence why the focus of my sentance was on the boding. If that is unchanged what else is as may intended, chequers was a disaster for much more than just ireland.

[mongrel]

Jeremy Corbyn says Labour is 'unhappy' with Boris Johnson's deal and 'as it stands' the party will vote against it. Looks like Theresa May mark 2.

[Daruwind]

Denmark/Ireland ministers saying they are ok with extension if UK asks, it is matter for council not Junker. Plus a few more comments around deal:

Starmer says changes to political declaration show Johnson's Brexit deal's 'far worse' than May's

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Hence why the focus of my sentance was on the boding. If that is unchanged what else is as may intended, chequers was a disaster for much more than just ireland.

According to earlier this morning essentially 90% of Mays 600 odd page deal is exactly the same. Boris has only changed these things (essentially stuff to do with the backstop and changing the already vague declaration of mirroring EU regulatory standards...though at the same time there is a specific commitment now for a 'level playing field' meaning that Britain can no longer change its working rights and regulations to be 'below' those of the EU for a competitive advantage)-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1571325181

This is why you have a fair few of the ERG not committing to the deal yet as essentially this is (And Caratacus gets the points for calling it earlier- potentially just a reheated May's deal. But we're all focused on the Irish question so currently no one is really noting that not much else has changed at all).

In some respects (like for those at the Economist, and the lib-dems) this deal actually is worse than May's because it takes May's Irish backstop and now actually makes it permanent (note we've given N.Ireland over to the EU for VAT totally, they set it, we simply collect it)- likewise we need further detail (I've read the 64 page legal text...dull, but also not exactly specific either) but it seems that N.Ireland is essentially for all intents and purposes staying in the EU customs union with all that entails in terms of being a rule taker, with Britain accepting this and having a again potentially (need more info) very complicated mechanism to judge the 'threat' of goods going into N.Ireland for re-export/export going to the EU or not and then slapping the right tariffs on them (if its coming to N.Irealnd to go to rUK - one set of tariffs, if its coming to N.Ireland for N.Ireland- tariffs depending on where its from EU or rest or UK, and if its coming from N.Ireland to EU- internal customs union prevails)- reimbursement is done after the fact, so small businesses particular are groaning. There also it appears will have to be physical checks somewhere.

The DUP have lost their veto over N.Irelands arrangements at Stormont, consent is now simply requiring a majority (nor qualification)- Stormont is fairly balanced between Unionists and Republicans so in the near future there could be the potential for trouble- no one for instance has said what happens if in 4 years Stormont reject to continue this arrangement, but for sure its essentially Britain washing its hands with the N.Irish issue.

So aye, while too early to fairly judge- its essentially the best Boris could ever be expected to do- take May's deal and change tiny parts that caused the most ruckus (The Irish border issue) and that's about it. In fairness to him the idea that he could start from scratch and renegotiate just was not and is not feasible given the mess Britain's domestic politics are in, the lack of political capital we actually have and the fact he backed himself into a corner through the 'do or die' (which we'll see what happens on that now Saturday as the EU have gone back and said Junkers comments about no extension are his opinion, not the EU's).