Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Elmetiacos]

Brexit party will yield to Boris and if you think labour can renegotiate you are clearly ignoring what the EU have said. They gave us a deal, take it or leave it and with the anti-EU factions in Europe milking this for all it's worth I'm not entirely sure an extension is on the cards.

You're mistakenly assuming the Brexit "Party" is a serious political party rather than a bunch of chancer scrubs who are in it for the money and talk radio slots. The last thing they want is for the UK to leave on the 31st October because then they go poof! and lose their salaries as MEPs; they want Boris to fail so they can carry on raging against the failure of the evil, pro-remain establishment.

[TheLeft]

"Conservatives: We'll purge the ones who disagree and break the law to crash the UK out of Europe without a deal.


Lib-Dems: **** potential civil war, we'll just completely ignore the referendum and cancel Brexit altogether.


Labour: We'll hold a referendum with an option to accept a deal or remain. We'll stay neutral so it's up to the public.


Everyone: CoRbYn Is A eXtrEmIsT!!!1"

[95thrifleman]

"Conservatives: We'll purge the ones who disagree and break the law to crash the UK out of Europe without a deal.


Lib-Dems: **** potential civil war, we'll just completely ignore the referendum and cancel Brexit altogether.


Labour: We'll hold a referendum with an option to accept a deal or remain. We'll stay neutral so it's up to the public.


Everyone: CoRbYn Is A eXtrEmIsT!!!1"

You are forgetting that Labour' planned "deal" is to remain under all EU laws and regulations and have no power to change them Their options are to stay in the EU as a vassal state or not leave at all.

[Katsumoto]

Britain DID make up it's mind. The losers of the referendum decided democracy only applies when they win.....

Well, not really. Britain voted to buy a new car but won't/can't tell the car dealer what colour and model it wants.

[95thrifleman]

Well, not really. Britain voted to buy a new car but won't/can't tell the car dealer what colour and model it wants.

I take your point.

Our whole political system is a joke at this point.

[TheLeft]

You are forgetting that Labour' planned "deal" is to remain under all EU laws and regulations and have no power to change them Their options are to stay in the EU as a vassal state or not leave at all.

Vassal state?? HAHA... You really have been drinking the Brexiteer Kool-aid by parroting Jacob Rees-Mogg quotes. I thought you'd declared yourself 'impartial' only a few posts ago? I'm just surprised you didn't start with either 'Brexit means Brexit', 'you lost, get over it', or my personal favourite, 'remoaners'.

I'm sure you'll be able to explain to the forum how your personal favourite flavour of Brexit was so obviously what the people voted for when they ticked a box in a Yes/No referendum. I'm certain you'll be able to tell us how despite the Leave campaign telling us that they DIDN'T want a no-deal, that was obviously what they wanted. I mean, you're obviously able to disseminate the intricacies of what everyone meant when they ticked a box in a yes/no poll, right?

The big problem with Brexit is the divisiveness of it all. The Brexit headbangers won't ever be happy with anything less than a no deal, and the Remain ultras won't accept anything less than a complete revocation of Article 50. So. Surely the sensible path is one of compromise. Who knows, we may even be able to move on and try to repair the damage this whole sorry affair has done to our reputation...

[95thrifleman]

Vassal state?? HAHA... You really have been drinking the Brexiteer Kool-aid by parroting Jacob Rees-Mogg quotes. I thought you'd declared yourself 'impartial' only a few posts ago? I'm just surprised you didn't start with either 'Brexit means Brexit', 'you lost, get over it', or my personal favourite, 'remoaners'.

I'm sure you'll be able to explain to the forum how your personal favourite flavour of Brexit was so obviously what the people voted for when they ticked a box in a Yes/No referendum. I'm certain you'll be able to tell us how despite the Leave campaign telling us that they DIDN'T want a no-deal, that obviously what they meant. I mean, you're obviously able to disseminate the intricacies of what everyone meant when they ticked a box in a yes/no poll, right?

The big problem with Brexit is the divisiveness of it all. The Brexit headbangers won't ever be happy with anything less than a no deal, and the Remain ultras won't accept anything less than a complete revocation of Article 50. So. Surely the sensible path is one of compromise. Who know, we may even be able to move on and try to repair the damage this whole sorry affair has done to our reputation...

I leave childish descriptions to you with your "gammon" crap to be honest.

My personal flavour of brexit at this point is to remain actualy, however I'm not looking at this from a partisan perspective but at the wider picture and what it says about british democracy.

You are blinded by this view that labour and corbyn, by sitting on the fence, is the answer to all things despite the fact his own party is divided and the other parties refuse to even work with him. The PLP hate him and even his momentum attack dogs are starting to turn against him.

Just admit your messiah is toxic, get rid of him and put a decent leader in charge of labour. I'd vote for Hillary Ben in a heartbeat.

[TheLeft]

I leave childish descriptions to you with your "gammon" crap to be honest.

My personal flavour of brexit at this point is to remain actualy, however I'm not looking at this from a partisan perspective but at the wider picture and what it says about british democracy.

You are blinded by this view that labour and corbyn, by sitting on the fence, is the answer to all things despite the fact his own party is divided and the other parties refuse to even work with him. The PLP hate him and even his momentum attack dogs are starting to turn against him.

Just admit your messiah is toxic, get rid of him and put a decent leader in charge of labour. I'd vote for Hillary Ben in a heartbeat.

He's not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy!

Sorry couldn't resist that...

Firstly. Got a problem with the term Gammon? Fine, have a word with Charles Dickens...

Secondly. Both Labour and the Tories are divided on Brexit. Apparently it turns out that it's a really divisive issue. Who knew, right!

Let's look at the other Parties.

1. Boris's Tories
2. Jo Swinson's Yellow Tories (yeah they support remain, but they are Tories. Hell, they even want more austerity! If you want more proof look at Swinson's voting record)
3. Farage's Tories

Is it any wonder why they don't want to work with Corbyn? But if he does lose the election, he'll be gone.

I do find it strange that a position of compromise is now considered to be extreme.

[caratacus]

A most excellent speech by UK's Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, in a session which Opposition MPs thought they bring him to heel over yesterday's Supreme Court result. Parliament is indeed running scared of the electorate and it will interesting to see Corbyn's next move is.

[Big War Bird]

Glad to see Johnson is fighting back. There is nothing to gain by being meek in the face of the SC ruling.

[TheLeft]

A most excellent speech by UK's Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, in a session which Opposition MPs thought they bring him to heel over yesterday's Supreme Court result. Parliament is indeed running scared of the electorate and it will interesting to see Corbyn's next move is.

Sure, if shouting and raving like a demented baboon is your thing...

The faux outrage is laughable. Geoffrey Cox got it massively wrong and then still refuses to share the flawed legal advice he gave to the government. This second rate lawyer and fifth rate Brian Blessed impersonator needs to resign, now. He scored a massively costly own goal and then has the cheek to blame it all on the opposition. Imagine a football manager doing that:

"It's outrageous that the opposition didn't let us win!!"

I think by this point even my cat understands that until a no-deal is ruled out then there will be no election. It really isn't a difficult concept and I've got no idea why Brexiteers cannot grasp this point. BoJo can have an election whenever he likes, he just has to obey the law and either get a deal or send a letter to the EU demanding an extension. If it means that the opposition keep him 'hostage' until Oct 19th, then so be it...

[caratacus]

Sure, if shouting and raving like a demented baboon is your thing...

The faux outrage is laughable. Geoffrey Cox got it massively wrong and then still refuses to share the flawed legal advice he gave to the government. This second rate lawyer and fifth rate Brian Blessed impersonator needs to resign, now. He scored a massively costly own goal and then has the cheek to blame it all on the opposition. Imagine a football manager doing that:

His advice to the PM was based in law, the fact that the ruling of the Supreme Court runs contrary to that, doesn't make it wrong advice. We are talking about highly complex constitutional law which the English High Court had already ruled upon. The fact that the Supreme court in its summary contains very little reference to precedent, demonstrates how radical its findings were and how unexpected.

I think by this point even my cat understands that until a no-deal is ruled out then there will be no election. It really isn't a difficult concept and I've got no idea why Brexiteers cannot grasp this point. BoJo can have an election whenever he likes, he just has to obey the law and either get a deal or send a letter to the EU demanding an extension. If it means that the opposition keep him 'hostage' until Oct 19th, then so be it...

Without questioning the sensibility of your cat (because all cats are sensible creatures ) but it is obvious that the opposition don't want Brexit, deal or no-deal.

[mongrel]

His advice to the PM was based in law, the fact that the ruling of the Supreme Court runs contrary to that, doesn't make it wrong advice. We are talking about highly complex constitutional law which the English High Court had already ruled upon. The fact that the Supreme court in its summary contains very little reference to precedent, demonstrates how radical its findings were and how unexpected.

Without questioning the sensibility of your cat (because all cats are sensible creatures ) but it is obvious that the opposition don't want Brexit, deal or no-deal.

BAh , he couldn't help Boris write up a half-decent witness statement

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

My cat to neverending story of Brexit:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

More serious:

PM Johnson should take responsibility for this legal affair and step down, as the prorogation was obiously illegal by the ruling of the Supreme Court.

[Alastor]

At least with the circus back in town there is sth fun to watch on the telly again.

[Muizer]

Labour: We'll hold a referendum with an option to accept a deal or remain. We'll stay neutral so it's up to the public.

Ah no, it comes down to asking leave voters to play the part of 'the losers' in the "How we canceled Brexit" production. If labour wants to keep leave voters on-board, inviting them to their own humiliation isn't going to cut it. Actually, I do not think the EU would go along with this. After 3 years of dealing with one government than cannot get its MP's in line, they're not going to deal with another that does not even want to commit itself to the outcome.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

So it appears potentially Boris has just created another political mess for himself- his comments tonight about Jo Cox and arguments over the divisive rhetoric he used- his replies to which were not the best politically speaking to put it mildly, and in some cases quite damaging. Currently many commentators are highlighting that it seems Boris is in danger of losing support from the remaining Conservatives (beyond his clique) for his conduct, apparently the part are furious with him, and some Tory MP's talking 'off-record' (so naturally may come to absolutely nothing) about a move to censure Boris due to his remarks, conduct and contempt (Storming out of Parliament with Points of Order being addressed to him didn't help the optics)- this is from MP's who actually support his Brexit position, but are feeling ill at ease that he's the right man to lead (understandable given that he has failed to deliver the 'rock star' popularity that was expected).

I think it also (my view here) highlights the still boiling internal divisions in the Tories, the ERG are still not on the same page as Boris, though he's doing better than May at appeasing thus far, this though has come at the expense of Javid- who it seems has built significant support around him (and was a leadership rival) and has settled in to a slightly more toxic Brown-Blair rival with Boris. I suspect that even if Brexit happens with no-deal on the 31st as Boris promised, he'll still be one of the shortest serving Conservative leaders as i don't think the party will be willing to put up with him for long, he's too much of a liability and somewhat of an 'anti Conservative' in policy outlook
(the extent that's Boris or Cummings and his team is of course up for debate). It's been an interesting day, and tomorrow no doubt we'll see how this unfolds.

The key point to remember throughout all this is currently, polling puts the parties neck and neck or far short of the advantage May had, the fact there are consistent discrepancies in polling modelling highlights just how dicey things are for a GE- though the only polling we do have that presents a 'clear' picture of 'winner' and 'loser' is one that shows that its likely an election prior to the 31st gives Boris a better chance of winning, but an election after the 31st, particularly if we haven't left (though also even if we have and there is disruption from no-deal), crushes Boris and the Conservatives down to only being the third largest party (this is the You Gov poll i posted a few posts ago for those interested- also can be found on Britain Elects). While again i'd question such a radical change (thus my issues with poll), i think it does go to show that certainly an election after the 31st with no leaving, or bad leaving will see the Conservatives no longer in Government. While people currently quite rightly question the worth of polling of couse, Political Parties still almost entirely base their political strategies and projections around them (as there is literally nothing better- and polling methodology has made some fairly significant leaps thanks to the Brexit political environment)

Labour though likewise are stuck in a similar rut to the Conservatives- they could win big, they could lose- both the Tories and Labour are effected by Lib-dem and Brexit party surges- though the Tories more by the latter and Labour more by the former. However its important to note that for Labour to fend off the lib-dems poaching its remain-leaning voters, it will risk alienating its leave voters to the brexit party who while smaller in number could and will mean the difference between no majority and a majority at a time when even in 'good' political times parties are struggling to get proper majorities with FPTP. Likewise the Tories have the same issue with Lib-dems, while Boris is aiming to stamp out the Brexit party as they did to UKIP (its not working particularly well currently though), he risks bleeding remain-leaning Tories or Liberal Tories to the lib-dems, who could actually be the difference from a 'worse than 2017 May result' and an actual majority.

On the other hand the SNP are quite happy for an election given the predictions for Scotland, the Lib-dems are eager too as they can only gain (maybe even back to Clegg levels), the Brexit party too i suspect are quite happy for a GE, as while FPTP presents them with a far greater struggle than the Lib-dems, they still have a chance to gain seats, and every single seat will be precious as a majority is a rare thing these days.

Its with all this in mind- that the key battle for Brexit, isn't necessarily now the 31st (Even if we've left, if a 'soft/remain' leaning party wins the GE that will shortly follow, the EU have said they'll offer a retroactive extension which currently as was posted a while ago is a legitimate legal option). It's the battle over the date of when a GE should occur. People assuming that one side or the other are running scared (as they accuse Labour of) or Desperate (As they accuse the Tories of) are seeing things through their own bias. In a GE context that is too dicey to call for either, every tiny advantage is now important and the 'when' is the biggest advantage (though still potentially not enough) either side could have. The Tories need an election asap- hence their 'Labour are scared' spin, Labour need one after the 31st hence their 'Not until no deal is off the table' spin, its going to be the most important factor to watch, but its important to remember neither party are desperate beyond sense, or running scared from a GE- its empty pointless spin- though a side-note, if Boris did do as Labour demand and get an extension prior to the 31st, he also suffers a fairly significant blow, because he's come down so hard on the 31st October Leaving message, in some way's he's done May with her red lines by constraining himself by his own rhetoric. Anyway, what both sides are though is out of options, and needing to gain every little advantage for the GE, and so the tug of war over its date becomes huge.

I'm not willing yet to say who will win out, i suspect Labour may get their way for an election after the 31st- simply because the Opposition alliance seems to be holding (though the SNP from tonight's comments are somewhat of a wild card- they have all to gain by a GE happening asap, they're not enough though to make up for the deficit in the Governments numbers, let alone the 2/3d Parliament majority needed- so again i think pending some intense internal pressure, Labour can pretty much pick the date). It's harder to see how Boris at all wins, unless his spin of 'Labour are running scared' actually starts to take hold- i suspect it won't though as that message doesn't really resonate well when the counter is 'GE after you've prevented no-deal' from a party that has called a GE every other week for the past few years and can ostensibly claim to be simply 'putting country first' etc. While it'll annoy solid leave voters, it doesn't really matter as their already pissed at Labour so the political pressure behind the 'you're too scared na na na' just isn't there.

[Daruwind]

Great review Dante. It is leading me again into my older prediction. UK home politics is for near future constant mess, basically there is no prospect of long term solution either way. Especially for any solution to stick around for longer time.... so EU is holding major cards. While I think the EU and especially some states and politics will shame UK and talk about no deal, they will probably use is to gain their own home political points and build strong negotiation position and in the end they will allow UK another long extension. Once the extension is requested, accepted, once there is GE...there is no points in UK further obstruction in EU organs. And once EU push UK into 1-2-3 years long extension, due to UK own home political mess ther will be not much UK will do about it (UK can but probably won´t do ). Yeah, mean naughty EU is forcing us into long extenstion bad bad people..now back to our squabbling about our home politics..

[caratacus]

So it appears potentially Boris has just created another political mess for himself- his comments tonight about Jo Cox and arguments over the divisive rhetoric he used- his replies to which were not the best politically speaking to put it mildly, and in some cases quite damaging. Currently many commentators are highlighting that it seems Boris is in danger of losing support from the remaining Conservatives (beyond his clique) for his conduct, apparently the part are furious with him, and some Tory MP's talking 'off-record' (so naturally may come to absolutely nothing) about a move to censure Boris due to his remarks, conduct and contempt (Storming out of Parliament with Points of Order being addressed to him didn't help the optics)- this is from MP's who actually support his Brexit position, but are feeling ill at ease that he's the right man to lead (understandable given that he has failed to deliver the 'rock star' popularity that was expected).

For a man who flew all the way back from New York and then rushed immediately back to the Commons to face a hostile House, and stand for nearly three hours fending off a barrage of criticism, I thought was really something, whether you agree with him or not. Granted it isn't the strategy of contrition, but how could it be. The opposition wanted to humiliate him and rub his nose in the Supreme Court’s decision, without moving a vote of no confidence.

For those sat on the opposition benches who this past months with their snearly and contorted faces and taunts, constantly gesticulating with pointed fingers and screeching voices, to be now trying to play the victim card is a bit much. Truth is Johnson came out of yesterday looking defiant in the public eye in support of Brexit, which is what he sought to achieve. I think the behaviour of this Parliament this past year especially, indicates that it will never pass any withdrawal agreement with the EU whatever its contents and whatever the attitude of the PM.

.. so EU is holding major cards. While I think the EU and especially some states and politics will shame UK and talk about no deal, they will probably use is to gain their own home political points and build strong negotiation position and in the end they will allow UK another long extension.

Do you really think the EU holds the cards?

German recession alert after worst factory slump in a decade
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-slump-decade/
Germany is on red alert for recession following the biggest collapse in activity for its mighty industrial sector since the financial crisis.

The eurozone’s largest economy relies on exports but its car industry has been punished by a slowing global economy and the fallout of the trade war between the US and China. Financial data provider IHS Markit’s latest snapshot of Germany’s manufacturing growth – where a score under 50 signals contraction – slid to 41.4, the worst reading since June 2009, as demand from overseas slumped.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

For a man who flew all the way back from New York and then rushed immediately back to the Commons to face a hostile House, and stand for nearly three hours fending off a barrage of criticism, I thought was really something, whether you agree with him or not. Granted it isn't the strategy of contrition, but how could it be. The opposition wanted to humiliate him and rub his nose in the Supreme Court’s decision, without moving a vote of no confidence.

For those sat on the opposition benches who this past months with their snearly and contorted faces and taunts, constantly gesticulating with pointed fingers and screeching voices, to be now trying to play the victim card is a bit much. Truth is Johnson came out of yesterday looking defiant in the public eye in support of Brexit, which is what he sought to achieve. I think the behaviour of this Parliament this past year especially, indicates that it will never pass any withdrawal agreement with the EU whatever its contents and whatever the attitude of the PM.

As i said though, politically the opposition won't VoNC until they can get some political benefit, likewise Boris wants one asap as that is where his best political benefit lies.

Regardless of the stamina and pressure he was under, which indeed was intense- his political screw up in his conduct is having the effect now. I think the issue with Boris was he was trying to goad Labour into losing its rag with him, but instead/as well as he also worked himself up too much (as he often does) and started saying things that have once more undermined his position- Parliament currently are on their drumming up his use of language, conduct and Jo Cox, and the Governments spokesperson has adopted contrition and has shifted to essentially agreeing that 'divisive' language both in politics, media and the public discourse has to now be stamped out over Brexit. If the Government continues having to dance to the oppositions narrative as it currently is, this could be quite interesting (and potentially damaging from my view of freedom of expression, as once more online regulation is back on the agenda). It also directly attacks the Parliament vs People aspect that Cummings wants- Boris may have toxified the strategy he was reliant on, by being forced now to 'tone down' what needed to be rip-roaring 'evil establishment' type rhetoric now and for any GE. Its again been a self-blow.

In terms of looking defiant, the issue here is it doesn't matter nor help. Its much as Labour finds with Corbyn- he only looks definant to those who already support him or can align with his goals. There was no political capital to be had last night, it did not do what all parties and the two sides of the Brexit battle line need to do to lever advantage in a GE- that being reach across to voters they can't currently get, and instead Boris has undermined himself and potentially scuppered the optics of Parliament vs People that would make that strategy most effective (For instance if he'd have toned down his more silly comments, made when he'd clearly riled himself and wasn't thinking sensibly- he would be able to unleash a Parliament vs people campaign with a huge media strike of 'Traitorous, insidious parliament etc- now he can't, as the language and tone of political discourse is under scrutiny already pre-empting the flashback and heading off the potential for the gains it could have made).

Your point about the opposition is correct too, the issue again is that Boris, by losing his rag has given them the entire narrative, instead of Stoic PM vs mob it was petulant PM vs angered Parliament- the Opposition are at fault, but as we've seen today, no one is concentrating on that, because Boris's actions outweighs there's. What's worse is that Boris has far more to lose by the current context being created of a drive for 'respectful discourse' as it prevents the polarizing, though politically useful language that Cummings relies on.

I think partly to bring this back to broader terms, i think Boris hasn't (perhaps weirdly) got a thick enough skin for this. He's very like Corbyn in being great at 'off cuff' pieces, but every official speech he's given whether in Parliament or at the Podium has been either 'meh' for impact, or a complete mess- if anyone saw his entire UN speech it was absolutely terrible- rambling, parts not making sense, he got lost in places clearly and repeated himself. His whole point about automation was completely lost, i think to himself too, which is a shame as its a very important issue. This inability is something we saw at the Foreign Office too. He's not very good at being constrained in officialdom- Rather like Corbyn any time he's at the despatch box. They're both clearly uncomfortable. The difference is Boris lacks control of his temper and is likely to as he did yesterday, when riled make a hash of things. Corbyn's issue is that he's often disinterested in large swathes of what he's saying, until he gets on about the things that have always been close to his heart. It'll be fantastic i suspect to see both of them on the campaign trail when a GE finally comes- Either Boris winning the advantage of an early one, or Corbyn for late. But until then they both are rather handicaps to their parties in the 'official' setting (This is partly the reason i think why Boris's team have had him until recently on such a tight leash comparatively regarding appearances- their were reports of them avoiding television and radio interviews and trying to play to his strengths- hence the ad-hoc stuff like the tour)

@The recession discussion- this is something i've been...well not waiting for , but following for the last year or so- essentially cheap loans to African states who have used them to modernize, but without a stable economic base (i.e. relying on consistent access to cheap loans, loans that are becoming more expensive now) as well as the threat (and somewhat of the impact) of the US v China v EU trade war has been drumming up the context for an impending recession. The point i would really ram home to everyone though is that if Germany goes into recession, Britain will too (Honestly though its more that if China or the US did as well- same thing happens, we're currently getting over the 'boom' phase since roughly 2013). The issue for Britain is that we are not at all robust currently to tackle another recession. In many ways we haven't actually recovered from 2008 yet in any meaningful way- High employment, but with low productivity and rising working poverty coinciding with a spiraling private debt crisis that really should be talked about more in the public eye, but again brexit dominates- is a very poor mix. Not to mention social stability is at a dangerous low. Politically any further or new implementation of an austerity program would be economically and politically suicidal, there just is not the base there to sustain it, especially with the nation-wide budget crunch at all levels. The only way out is to do as both Boris and Labour want- spend- while that makes economic sense, it also totally destroys the whole point of Cameron and Osborne austerity, undoing the work on the deficit and debt reduction (Yes austerity was a stupid way to do that, but its literally destroying the one thing it did do while it destroyed everything else), it rends the entire past 10 years of coalition and then Tory economic policy absolutely pointless. Not a great situation.

So the recession factor isn't a 'Your're going under, we win' kind of tool as some papers have tried to portray it, its more a 'your going under first, we'll follow' deal. In this context the effect it would have on brexit and negotiations should be for both sides to be galvanized to get the hell over this current mess and prepare to support each other for when the slump hits, because everyone is negatively affected, and actually Germany is in a better position than Britain currently is to weather it (Their domestic crisis has been compared to ours far more nuanced than the absolute paralysis the brexit back and forth has caused the UK political body that has meant pressing economic issues have been ignored and allowed to fester without effective policy treatment).

EDIT: The Government have just lost a motion that Parliament break up for the Conservative Party conference 306-289, there will be no recess next week. Parliament will now be sitting while that goes on. Reese-Moggs read out the business for this time period- lots of Brexit related stuff and the Abuse Bill. The Government despite the earlier back down and contrition are still getting heavy flak over the language floodgate Boris opened- their now calling for the Attorney General to apologize for his remarks- this honestly is rather ridiculous in reality, the AG's speech was 'robust' (is i believe the parliamentary term they would use), and elegant- but again this is the issue with Boris's actions, the narrative will be hammered at him for quite some time yet.