Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2521

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I can't help but think the proroguing thing is a smokescreen. It's already had an injunction case thrown at it, Boris knows it'll never pass.

    I wouldn't be surprised if he's setting everyone up for a snap election on Tuesday.

  2. #2522
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Not home
    Posts
    1,368

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    I can't help but think the proroguing thing is a smokescreen. It's already had an injunction case thrown at it, Boris knows it'll never pass.

    I wouldn't be surprised if he's setting everyone up for a snap election on Tuesday.
    It's possible that BoJo simply wants to show he is fighting the good fight to his prospective voters yes. Thing is, no matter the outcome of this prorogation, it seems he wins.

  3. #2523
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    So as things appear it seems Boris (Or Cummings as it seems many are attributing the 'disruptive' plans to him) may have overestimated his reach:

    Boris Johnson seeks to avert defeat by accelerating Brexit talks
    https://www.ft.com/content/d75cbc18-...ocHqrEK2i25gaI

    As he is now promising to go 'all in' on Brexit talks. The context for this is potentially the realization that as summarized by Newsnight last night that 'anti-no dealers' (because they contain now genuine brexiteers too) are seeking an emergency debate Tuesday in which they'll during one day seek to implement and vote on legislation that legally prevents no-deal. The Government had hoped that there simply would not be enough Tory rebels backing this to make it a real threat, but as it turns out there now might be.

    Other 'anti-no dealer' plans include 'pulling a Letwin' (my term ), A humble address, the success of the fast-tracked Scottish court-case (Though i doubt the courts will want to weigh in on Politics so directly), Pulling a 'Civil War' (Not literally... though i have always wanted a feathered musketeer hat) in which they refuse to leave the Chamber (and indeed there has been wild talk of setting up a second Parliament if need be- again nuclear option or just talk i suspect/hope), The Lords may indeed take center role as they could filibuster any prorogation and are apparently prepared to do so, camping out in their chamber and going long speeches on nothing through if necessary the entirety of the suspension which will prevent the house from being closed. Apparently they also may block key Government legislation to prevent the suspension at all (though i'm not quite sure how that might work).

    For Boris, his moves would be to immediately ennoble hundred of 'Brexit supporting' Lords, in an attempt to swamp out the current anti-brexit majority there. A risky political move in itself. He may also create 'local bank holidays' in depopulated areas of England....a lot of them as if there is a Bank holiday, parliament cannot sit- again though this may not work and would probably be deemed an abuse of power. The nuclear option though to prevent a 'legislative' solution would be for Boris to refuse to present any legislation passed by a majority in Parliament to the Queen for Royal assent...

    ...This now would be dictatorship territory, and while a Tory back-bench MP who is now opposed to proroguing parliament has said that is what Boris plans to do. I don't believe this would be an option considered unless Boris is willing to destroy the functioning of UK democracy forever more, after such a move there is no going-back once that precedent of Parliamentary sovereignty is gone and we're essentially looking at Banana Republic with a complete overhaul the system from root to stem needed to rebuild democracy as it proves the Westminister system is democratically speaking, flawed (we knew), but also dead.

    The VoNC of course is the last option against Boris, and this is why i think there has been the scrambled assurances now that he's going to go and get a deal (Bearing in mind he merely needs to change the back-stop now, he apparently is not seeking anything else and in this context its likely it'll pass despite ERG opposition) because the Prorogation has essentially forced the dissipate opposition to come together. You now have a fair few Tories openly stating their fine with a Corbyn led caretaker regime ('Care taking' being the important point).

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-gran...er-pm-11797355

    This is the context where i think the Government assumed it might be safe due to Corbyn's toxicity to Tories and the Lib-dems, but with Conservatives now willing to back him (in a time-limited role) things are looking very dicey. Though dicey for both sides, as the Lib-dems have still not yet made clear their position on this. It indeed might be the thing that allows Boris to squeeze through this as there are so many options on the table to prevent him, it could see the opposition divided for a fair while on which approaches they might favour.

    The larger picture of course is does the attempted proroguing, as many of you have argued convincingly, help Boris regardless of its outcome in terms of creating far better prospects at a General Election. If anyone's been playing around with the electoral calculate, if Boris can get back the Brexit party vote- most of which are indeed former Conservatives, he'll potentially be able to get to where May after her 2017 result, which is still an improvement, though still DUP reliant. Hugely optimistically a majority in his own right could be scraped, that would is still fairly distant due it again needing remainer Tories, or stealing Labour brexiteers- which might happen, but Boris's domestic platform will need to mirror somewhat a Labour approach which currently it does not seem to (Again this is the issue with 'Global Britain' as its at odds domestically with what is cross-party popular for the electorate, and is something many brexit voters are implicitly against- these are factors that may rear its head during a GE providing Labour once again can seize the narrative and not allow this to be a '31st' dominated event, which is exactly what Cummings is attempting to do).

    Proroguing of course may also help mitigate the EU throwing the blame for a no-deal if one happens into Boris's court with their '30 day' offer to allow him to fix the Irish backstop with an alternative and detailed solution. I'm not sure how successful this might be as its still not quite a strong narrative to convince anyway, voters tend to lash out at even popular governments for things beyond that governments control despite damage limiting narratives. This again though provides evidence towards those who suspect Boris is going to provide as Epic said a 're-heated' May's deal and Parliament will this time probably agree to pass it. It indeed is due to this context that some of Bori's advisers are arguing that he should seek a General election prior to the 31st to get the brexit electorate support that he might otherwise lose to the Brexit party if he's just signed up to what is essentially May's deal and the ERG and Farage are shouting bloody murder about it.

    @Epic, just as a final comment- it might be me as a Scot Unionist, so bias But i just cannot imagine a UK Conservative PM being ok with his legacy being the loss of Scotland and break up of the Union. Though i suppose with the EU context, getting out of the EU will rather balance it out perhaps politically especially with the potential for a 'winds of change' esque style 'New Modern 21st Century British isles' speech which if anyone, Boris would be the Tory to pull off.

    EDIT: Almost forgot the key factor that may have seen the Government be far less bullish is this:

    Ben Wallace, a close ally of Boris and the current Defense Secretary, was secretly filmed stating that the whole prorogation was far from the 'official' line of being a normal suspension for the Queens Speech, in fact is due to the Government not having a majority and thus not being able to do as it wants due to our 'winner takes all' system- https://www.express.co.uk/videos/607...ent-suspension

    While this is something i think we all knew- its to do with Brexit, it paints the Government to both its own MP's (thus why more than expected are coming over to the Opposition side) and the public as being disingenuous (as well as some extreme calls stating they lied to the Queen to get the prorogation...which i'm not sure how anyone could know as the conversation is secret) and adds to the opposition narrative that this is a power-grab.

    Wallace also stated that he's unsure of what the outcome will be, which lends support to what everyone's said. That who might emerge 'victorious' from this is very much up on the air.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; August 30, 2019 at 04:24 AM.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  4. #2524

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Wandering Storyteller View Post
    Brexit has suddenly become a lot more interesting.

    Have musket, will travel.


    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

    "Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  5. #2525

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    According to the Commons Information Office, parliament merely "does not normally sit" on "public holidays" (not quite the same as a bank holiday) so it seems the route of creating more weird local holidays is just Dungeons & Dragons stuff. Packing the Lords hasn't ever been done since 1832, and then after a lot of argument; there is no clear precedent, unlike with prorogation, for the Queen to follow.
    Resident Language Geek
    Baseless Assertions on the Celts Since 1996

  6. #2526

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I seem to remember Tory MP's such as Matt Hancock, Amber Rudd, Sajid Javid & Nicky Morgan saying that prorogation would be a step too far.


    Q. Where are they now?


    A. They're Tories, so they're lying, hypocritical scumbags. Oh well, Tories gonna Tory...

  7. #2527
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Not officially confirmed yet, but Gordon Brown has stated from his talks with the EU that they are preparing to unilaterally offer an extension beyond the 31st to Britain.

    Gordon Brown has said the European Union will next week "withdraw" the current deadline for Brexit and remove any excuse for no-deal on October 31.The former Labour Prime Minister said his belief was based on talks with EU leaders in recent days.
    In particular, he said he understood that France’s President Macron, the prime mover behind the October 31 deadline when it was agreed in April, no longer insisted upon it.
    He said President Macron had demanded a six month extension rather than a year to “sound tough” to a domestic audience six weeks before the European elections.

    Mr Brown said that although EU leaders could not unilaterally annul the deadline, he now expected them to say they were ready and willing to extend it, adding to the pressure on Boris Johnson to avoid no-deal.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...o-deal-option/

    If this happens Boris's current position is very much undermined, If Boris is planning on bringing back a re-heated May Deal, this extension if offered undermines that getting through Parliament. His position is also undermined as it means no-deal will be directly the British governments fault, and their will be no way of passing the blame back on to them in any politically realistic way that would stick. The government instead faces the prospect of taking any such offer to continue negotiations and alienate the ERG and brexit voters who may turn to the Brexit party, or to continue to drop out on the 31st with no deal and be totally exposed to the whole blame from any and all problems that may arise from it- which will also fundamentally weaken his electoral prospects.

    If such a game changing offer is made (and again no confirmation, we'll have to wait and see) expect to see i suspect an early GE due to this fact, but also the game-board changes rather significantly for everyone.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; August 30, 2019 at 02:15 PM.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  8. #2528

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeft View Post
    I seem to remember Tory MP's such as Matt Hancock, Amber Rudd, Sajid Javid & Nicky Morgan saying that prorogation would be a step too far.

    Q. Where are they now?

    A. They're Tories, so they're lying, hypocritical scumbags. Oh well, Tories gonna Tory...
    What they denounced was a prorogation that would cover the period from the end of the summer recess to beyond the A50 deadline (31st October). The current prorogation still leaves MPs with plenty of time to act prior to the deadline. The answer you gave yourself is wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Not officially confirmed yet, but Gordon Brown has stated from his talks with the EU that they are preparing to unilaterally offer an extension beyond the 31st to Britain.



    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...o-deal-option/

    If this happens Boris's current position is very much undermined, as it means no-deal will be directly the British governments fault, and their will be no way of passing the blame back on to them in any politically realistic way that would stick. The government instead faces the prospect of taking any such offer to continue negotiations and alienate the ERG and brexit voters who may turn to the Brexit party, or to continue to drop out on the 31st with no deal and be totally exposed to the whole blame from any and all problems that may arise from it- which will also fundamentally weaken his electoral prospects.

    If such a game changing offer is made (and again no confirmation, we'll have to wait and see) expect to see i suspect an early GE due to this fact, but also the game-board changes rather significantly for everyone.
    The Withdrawal Act insists that a date must be included for any extension. Parliament would either have to change the act or override it with new legislation in order to have an open ended time limit, irrespective of what the EU does.

    European Union (Withdrawal Act) 2019

    Duties in connection with Article 50 extension

    (1)On the day on which this Act receives Royal Assent or on the day after that day, a Minister of the Crown must move a motion in the House of Commons in the form set out in subsection (2).

    (2)The form of the motion set out in this subsection is –

    “That this House agrees for the purposes of section 1 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2019 to the Prime Minister seeking an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union to a period ending on […]”

    (3)A motion in the form set out in subsection (2) must include a date in the position indicated by the brackets in that subsection.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; August 30, 2019 at 02:17 PM.

  9. #2529
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    That is not at all in dispute. An extension doesn't stop a no-deal by any means, or Britain pursuing one. What it would do is as i've stated, politically shift the blame for any no-deal fall-out upon Boris's government alone to grapple with, potentially an election after a no-deal brexit is now much harder, than one prior to the 31st.

    It also does impact any influence proroguing might have to force MP's to agree a re-done May deal, as well as MP's plans for tackling Boris. A VoNC might now be more likely, Boris can no longer attempt to 'boss one out' with an election after the 31st, because as mentioned a few pages ago, any offer of an extension can apply retroactively if necessary for a new government legally (Pending of course that A) the EU do offer this and B) they'd agree to that too and C) A new government somehow commands a majority to push it through Parliament). Again though we'll have to wait and see if this isn't just the interpretation of Brown.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; August 30, 2019 at 02:24 PM.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  10. #2530

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    That is not at all in dispute. An extension doesn't stop a no-deal by any means, or Britain pursuing one. What it would do is as i've stated, politically shift the blame for any fall-out upon Boris's government alone to grapple with.
    Any negative affect of a no deal exit would be his to grapple with anyway Dante. Unless Parliament insists on an extension (which it could do anyway) the 31st deadline date remains in place - meaning that the European Union will be forced to negotiate on the basis of that date irrespective of whether it has shifted its own timeline.

  11. #2531
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Any negative affect of a no deal exit would be his to grapple with anyway Dante. Unless Parliament insists on an extension (which it could do anyway) the 31st deadline date remains in place - meaning that the European Union will be forced to negotiate on the basis of that date irrespective of whether it has shifted its own timeline.
    In reality i think you're spot on, but the Government have been attempting to store up a political narrative of counter ammunition which blames the EU or Opposition parties for any negative consequences of no-deal that might provide some shield from any electoral impact (For instance the repetition of 'should have voted for a deal', or just a few days ago the emphasis that the EU was the one being unfair regarding the back-stop prior to Merkel's counter-narrative shift of a 30 day offer). This of course is only important if an election is provided after the 31st, but i suspect the Government is still toying with when it wants to call one. I know Johnson's advisers are by all accounts pretty divided on 'before vs after'.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  12. #2532
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Prague
    Posts
    2,202

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    delete, Dante said it much better
    Last edited by Daruwind; August 30, 2019 at 03:07 PM.

  13. #2533
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    U.K.
    Posts
    3,789

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    A row develops between the PM and the Chancellor over the sacking of a special adviser. Although the real row is with the former Chancellor.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



    Sajid Javid 'voiced anger' to PM over adviser sacking

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49532243
    Chancellor Sajid Javid "voiced his anger" to Boris Johnson over the sacking of one of his special advisers by No 10, the BBC has learned. On Thursday, Sonia Khan was escorted from Downing Street by police after her security clearance was withdrawn. It came after she was summoned to a meeting with the prime minister's senior aide Dominic Cummings, about government leaks.

    The BBC's political correspondent, Iain Watson, said there appeared to be an informal investigation being conducted into the leak of the Operation Yellowhammer documents - commissioned under the previous regime at Downing Street - setting out the potential consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

    A Downing Street source had previously pointed the finger for the leak at an unnamed former minister, prompting the then chancellor, Philip Hammond, to write to Mr Johnson and ask him to "apologise for the misleading briefing from No 10".

    At the meeting with Mr Cummings, Ms Khan, who worked under Mr Hammond, handed over both her personal and work phones, and her phone logs were checked. Evidence was found that she had been in touch with former colleagues who had worked for Mr Hammond, but not that she had been involved in leaking any sensitive government information. No reason was given for her dismissal, but the BBC's Iain Watson said it was suggested the issue was about whether she could be trusted to be transparent with No 10.

    He added that the dismissal - the second from Mr Javid's team within the month - comes amid efforts to impose greater staff discipline in Whitehall under the new PM, including a crackdown on leaks.
    From what we know, this meeting of special advisers to government ministers, was called to investigate leaks of information from government and evidence was found that Khan had been feeding information to those outside cabinet most notably those close to her former boss Phillip Hanmmond. Given Hammond's former position within government as Chancellor and his actions (in actions) and words this past three years. It wouldn't need too much of a stretch of the imagination to seem him as central in a plot to scupper Brexit.
    Boris Johnson accuses Philip Hammond and other ex-ministers of undermining Brexit ahead of EU trip
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...hilip-hammond/
    Boris Johnson accused a group of Remain-supporting ex-ministers led by Philip Hammond of attempting to undermine his bid to negotiate a new Brexit deal from the EU.

    The Prime Minister’s team accused the group of “deliberately leaking” details of Government no deal planning ahead of crucial talks this week with Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel. The war of words escalated as Mr Hammond denied he or his allies had leaked the “Operation Yellowhammer” document and accused Mr Johnson of having “no negotiating strategy and no serious plan for a no-deal”.
    Last edited by caratacus; August 31, 2019 at 07:39 AM.

  14. #2534
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
    Citizen

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    10,818

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by JP226 View Post
    Votes don’t come out right...”?
    That's the opinion of many Anti EU/ right wing ultranationalist/pro-Trump Americans and ultranationalist Europeans. Fine, let's talk about "votes": the so-called "Brexit" votes.

    The United Kingdom includes Northern Ireland but Northern Ireland is not British. It's "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



    The UK, a country constituted by three and a half nations (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) seems to forget what Prof. Timothy Garton Ash called the "post imperial negligence of the Brexit supporters".

    Hard facts: 62% of the Scottish people voted against the Brexit. More than 58% of the Irish people voted against the Brexit. Let's keep in mind that neither N.Ireland, Wales or Scotland are not constitutionally empowered to express a voice on the matter.
    In 2016, Wales voted alongside England to leave the EU (52%), but is now a Remain nation again: Wales’ remain-supporting parties outstripped their Brexit-backing counterparts in 26 May election results.
    With that being said, what we are really seeing is the Brexit of the English people, in which Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland appear as complications or afterthoughts.The strategy of Domenic Cummings- the Vote Leave strategist-is an eminently English centric phenomenon, and doesn't take into consideration the fragile truce of the G.F.A. To sum up, the English nationalism has played a big role in Brexit.
    Expect violence, British government expect violence to return to North with ... - IrishCentral
    Expect deep divisions, Labour would support second Scottish independence referendum
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Socialism is the epithet they have hurled at every advance the people have made in the last 20 years.
    Harry Truman Oct. 10th, 1952

  15. #2535
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Prague
    Posts
    2,202

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Dante, what you think about lower video? Gordon Brown talking to EU leaders, they are ready to drop the deadline and make the offer perhaps next week. Plus sounds like Bojo is threatening any conservative MP with deselection/kick out in case of voting for extension...If I understand it properly, EU offered before short extension mainly due to Macron before EU election, which are no longer problem so basically EU is fine with longer extension...year perhaps? And what will happen if Eu simply offers such extension...the video is suggesting it will basically go straight to parliament who has to decide on it? Will parliament manage to discuss it even before prerougation? Basically even Bojo cannot fill enough agenda to keep such offer offlimit before 31st October..


  16. #2536

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Dante, what you think about lower video? Gordon Brown talking to EU leaders, they are ready to drop the deadline and make the offer perhaps next week. Plus sounds like Bojo is threatening any conservative MP with deselection/kick out in case of voting for extension...If I understand it properly, EU offered before short extension mainly due to Macron before EU election, which are no longer problem so basically EU is fine with longer extension...year perhaps? And what will happen if Eu simply offers such extension...the video is suggesting it will basically go straight to parliament who has to decide on it? Will parliament manage to discuss it even before prerougation? Basically even Bojo cannot fill enough agenda to keep such offer offlimit before 31st October..
    I like Phil, but he does tend to get overly optimistic. Macron and Merkel have both either hinted or outright mentioned to give a long extension to UK. The idea is polarizing in the EU and there's no guarantee that the idea will take off in the EU. It certainly would kill Johnson's plot, essentially holding everyone hostage, but only if the EU actually goes through with something like that.

  17. #2537
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
    Citizen

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    10,818

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    basically EU is fine with longer extension...year perhaps?
    Absolutely.
    Or years and years..
    ------
    I have already said it before,it's the Brexit of the Britons.
    The majority of Britons don't care if Northern Ireland leaves the UK

    Adults in Great Britain have probably never visited Northern Ireland, and are fine if it leaves the UK
    Brexit: this poll reveals a sad truth about Britain and Northern Ireland

    Recent polling (1) from Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft suggests that two-thirds of pro-Brexit voters would rather leave the Customs Union than avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, and that six out of ten people surveyed “would not mind either way” if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK.
    This shouldn’t actually come as a great surprise.
    Brexiteers believe passionately in their project. .. Nor is it affected by the fact that indicators from credible sources suggest the UK is heading for a disastrous economic outcome. Brexiteers are determined it seems, reminiscent of Alfred Lord Tennyson’s Charge of the Light Brigade, to keep “Charging an army while all the world wondered”.

    But there is another explanation for Ashcroft’s poll finding. This is less flattering..for the country as a whole. It reflects a belief about the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It is Team GB you see flying the flag at the Olympics –- not Team UK, despite the fact that Northern Ireland competes under that flag – and what goes on in the Olympics mirrors a broader public consciousness of the “nation”. Northern Ireland’s invisibility in sport is a painful metaphor for those of a unionist persuasion. Put bluntly, Northern Ireland is different. It exists on the political, economic and cultural periphery of the UK, rather than being an integral component of Britain’s understanding of its own self-interest or self-image.
    (1) Brexit, the Border and the Union - Lord Ashcroft Polls
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Socialism is the epithet they have hurled at every advance the people have made in the last 20 years.
    Harry Truman Oct. 10th, 1952

  18. #2538
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Dante, what you think about lower video? Gordon Brown talking to EU leaders, they are ready to drop the deadline and make the offer perhaps next week. Plus sounds like Bojo is threatening any conservative MP with deselection/kick out in case of voting for extension...If I understand it properly, EU offered before short extension mainly due to Macron before EU election, which are no longer problem so basically EU is fine with longer extension...year perhaps? And what will happen if Eu simply offers such extension...the video is suggesting it will basically go straight to parliament who has to decide on it? Will parliament manage to discuss it even before prerougation? Basically even Bojo cannot fill enough agenda to keep such offer offlimit before 31st October..

    Its really interesting stuff. I know there has already been a leak on the Brown statement that essentially Boris's Gov has rejected any chance of it happening (however for an election and a new gov, it means its on the table).

    Essentially prorogation i suspect has failed now- Tomorrow we'll see for sure, but essentially i'm sure we've all caught Boris's 'non-speech' today?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...auke-live-news - Guardian so you know, remain/liberal bias. But its the speech that is important, any speech shows the same though. This was a Boris off his game slightly. Some suspect its because of the crowd- despite two mics for Boris, they can still be heard, and its very hostile to him. I suspect more though that he announced earlier in the afternoon an emergency cabinet meeting- a snap election was expected to be called- he wanted one, but his advisers who want to wait won out- thus the kind of weird non-announcement, where he threatens the prospect of a snap GE, but doesn't do it- its instead a last ditch attempt to try and go Tory 'Anti-No dealers' to not back the Opposition tomorrow and thus prevent him from doing no-deal.

    Its as i think we all essentially mentioned earlier basically, Boris overreached with proroguing- it rallied them all together, even the threat of de-selecting these rebel Tories has not seemingly worked (we'll know tomorrow of course for sure).

    But proroguing doesn't matter now really because i kinda suspect tomorrow, the opposition will manage a legislative solution (or later in the week VoNC) and Boris will be forced to call a snap GE (That i suspect he wanted, but his advisers didn't). Now everyone has said the GE date (from a gov source- its all over brexiteer and remain leaning press) will be the 14th October.

    That's right, all the funny business and under-hand stuff ends. It'll be a straight up fight. A fight which anything could happen.- That is of course though IF the opposition allow him to do a GE (Fix term and all that), i think they will, this is what Corbyn has wanted, but who knows. A GE on the 14 October though means that the consequences of any no-deal, are not their yet, the brexit party will be an issue. Its unlikely Boris, who still publicly only wants to change the back-stop, will deal with Farage who is demanding no-deal be actively pursued.

    A GE though also splinters the 'remain alliance' as Labour and Lib-dems are both vying to win. It also makes it harder for Labour to target where they are strong and the Government is weak (Domestic policy- Johnson is essentially offering a spending platform like Labour...only less than Labours, not properly costed and that already has hit trouble with being rather misleading) as a very near brexit is looming. It'll be the key issue. 2017 Labour did manage to shift the focus onto domestic, but this time it will be harder to pull off.

    Essentially an early GE will favour Boris more than one after the 31st October, but not by much. Expect things to get messy, and for neither side to go quietly into that good night.

    But Proroguing has become essentially (for now at least) a background issue compared to the weeks events. Essentially the proroguing the government underestimated i suspect the back-lash and also just how quickly the opposition could properly get together across-party to push through legislation or VoNCs.

    EDIT: This is why a Snap GE is so dicey for Boris, but also the other too:


    On the face of it, the Tories face an uphill struggle. It is likely to lose many of its 13 seats in Scotland to the Scottish National party, where the public is strongly anti-Brexit, and faces a real threat from the Liberal Democrats, or possibly Labour, in some of its southern Remain constituencies.

    As a result, the Conservatives need to seize dozens of seats in Leave-voting heartlands, for example in the Midlands and South Yorkshire, where many families have a longstanding attachment to the Labour party.
    https://www.ft.com/content/0ca93f62-...W9yHyqB5JcvVlo

    It'll essentially be down to if Boris's brexit for traditional Labour voters is going to be enough to make them vote for Tory, and likewise for Labour if typical Tory and Lib-dem voters cna be brought to them through remain. It is here where essentially the domestic stuff comes into play- as if that is at all emphasized the straight decision of 'i support brexit/remain, so i vote for a Tories/Labour/Brexit Party/Lib-dem' becomes far more complicated.

    Currently with polls (which change radically of course during a GE- See Corbyn making up most of a 20 point lead vs May in 2017), the Tories best bet is that Boris will get around the same number of MP's May achieved last time in 2017- so more than any other party, but short a majority. The DUP though are expected to lose at least two currently. So things get a bit tight again. Its not a safe bet though.

    I know this too is a factor that has been pushed away by brexit/is no longer important to Boris's government, but a GE would see Scottish independence be almost a certainty. Its likely Conservatives and Labour will be wiped out by the SNP, with only a tiny-lib dem presence left. This is because brexit is the SNP's tool for reaching across to Scottish unionists (who mainly are pro-remain), its why brexit and its mandate as talked about a year ago now, means a lot of different things and opportunities in interpreting its 'mandate' from a lot of different sides underneath the primary EU- leave remain question.

    This is also why things will be dicey for the Government-

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1567409033

    It is essentially Boris and others show- forgetting about the PM, his top Cabinet is essentially still very much the 'B team' that May employed, who have been lackluster in policy and just kinda.... well thick.

    The above example is the current Home Sec Priti Patel-

    The government has been forced to scrap plans for a law that would end freedom of movement at midnight on 31 October in a no-deal scenario, according to reports.
    In a shift of policy, the home secretary, Priti Patel, had planned secondary legislation to stop freedom of movement for EU citizens into the UK, but has been forced to accept that the move could have landed the government in court.

    Patel thought she could get around this using a so-called “Henry VIII power” but experts including Alexandra Sinclair, a fellow at the Public Law Project, cited by House of Commons library researchers in a report on the issue that any such move “might run into difficulties”.
    The Institute for Government’s programme director for Brexit, Joe Owen, said it would be “wide open to judicial review”.
    “To do that [end freedom of movement on 31 October] in any meaningful way would cause major disruption – employers, citizens and universities are completely unprepared for this last-minute U-turn,” he said.
    “On a practical level the plan is so close to impossible – if not entirely impossible – that one wonders whether the government is serious about making it work.”
    The Sunday Times reported that the government’s no-deal cabinet, known as the XO committee, was told last week that it would have a 70% chance of losing a court case, as the move gave no consideration to the pre-acquired rights of EU citizens.
    The shift in policy did not involve any assessment of how employers, landlords or Border Force officials would be able to distinguish between EU citizens already legally resident in the UK and those coming to the UK for the first time after a no-deal exit from the EU.
    She's incompetent (the whole secret trips to promise government support to foreign states without actually informing the government got her fired under May). But to actually be doing 'policy on the fly' no analysis prior, and worse- actually trying to use the Henry VIII to force things through into legislation (which are so very clearly flawed- that's the big issue with this, without parliamentary scrutiny for this idiots, things are going half arsed), we nearly had an immigration policy that would have cost the UK Government millions in legal fees, was unenforceable and genuinely seemingly had 0 real thought put into it.

    Its debatable if like May, Boris actually has the Cabinet team capable of pulling off a GE victory.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; September 02, 2019 at 06:48 PM.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  19. #2539
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
    Citizen

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    10,818

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    brexit is the SNP's tool for reaching across to Scottish unionists (who mainly are pro-remain)
    In fact, the Brexit is an English problem.
    I have been saying it...repeatedly
    Long read | Brexit is an English problem | LSE BREXIT - LSE Blogs

    To win a majority government, a party need only win roughly 60% of seats in England, even if all other seats in other nations are won by another or other parties.

    There are no significant political counterweights to English political dominance.

    The ‘unwritten constitution’ does not correct for this dominance but simply expresses and reinforces it.
    The referendum was predominantly an English question. It was forced by a party that was increasingly English-centric, and whose leaders were responding to challenges from factions inside their party and from UKIP and more recently the Brexit Party. UKIP and the Brexit Party are almost exclusively an English electoral phenomenon.

    The referendum results show significant, unsurprising national differences. They also show the contemporary vacuity of British identity, which seems to have had historical resonance primarily as an imperial identity. As a post-imperial identity, however, ‘British’ has lost meaning and is now (if not always has been) code for English dominance. Northern Ireland is Irish and not British. Scotland is not British. ‘Britain’ has been reduced to England and Wales.
    Brexit may hasten Irish unification and Scottish separation. These are the limits of English dominance. Brexit may spell the end of English dominance of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Socialism is the epithet they have hurled at every advance the people have made in the last 20 years.
    Harry Truman Oct. 10th, 1952

  20. #2540
    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Location
    NI
    Posts
    6,453
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Brexit was an English problem yet constituencies in Wales and Northern Ireland voted for it
    Patronised by Pontifex Maximus

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There is nothing to suggest dramatically that his heart is giving out. His heart attack is a testament to how well he can recover from something like that.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •