Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2481

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Me arriving home and being told the news.

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  2. #2482

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It's not all that bad. Suspending Parliament doesn't really achieve anything for the PM; the Commons can simply call a vote of no confidence (which is now far more likely) when it reconvenes. And because Johnson is seen to have caused a "constitutional outrage" the odds that a government of national unity will be formed to delay A50 until after a general election have increased. I don't know why he didn't just let the remain contingent fail in their attempts to find a legislative solution.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; August 28, 2019 at 01:05 PM.

  3. #2483
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    A fair point, its certainly the extreme option of the all the routes Boris could have taken. I suspect though it is somewhat to do with the chance in tack that Boris is only seeking to remove the Irish back-stop announced yesterday, and the building fury of the 'No-deal' Brexiteers within the Conservative party, who want to see major changes to May's deal, or indeed it simply scrapped altogether. It might be then an attempt to save the Government falling into the 'May position' of two significant hostile groups, while Boris negotiates a deal during the suspension (as ostensibly he's said he will do) and then has time with Parliament still suspended to convince a suitable number of less-fantatic MP's to back it or face no-deal.

    This interpretation though requires that Boris is acting on good faith and intends to get a deal (one which simply removes the back-stop), which apparently is a perception that the EU have publicly with their '30 day challenge' to Boris- https://www.theguardian.com/politics...johnson-brexit

    Indeed in this context if everyone is doing as they've publicly stated, Boris might well come back with a mechanism that sees the back-stop removed and then accepts the rest of May's deal.

    The above though is a very generous interpretation of the situation, devoid of my usual cynicism .

    More cynically is that he's trying to prevent a 'legislative solution' that prevents him doing no-deal, by removing as much time as he could get away with. This i think has somewhat backfired, as while nothing is certain, its equally a gamble for Boris, if he could survive a VoNC, survive a 'humble address' if he refuses to resign after said VoNC, or indeed survive a subsequent GE. A GE that even if carried out after the 31st would be still politically hell for the Tories as any disruption from 'No-deal' due to lack of preparation will haunt his Government, and likewise might result in a very different Brexit direction that essentially 'scraps' no deal, by that an EU retroactive extension to a new Government, or Labour simply signing up to a close customs Union.

    So essentially, i agree its not really all that bad, but doesn't really make sense for Boris to do at this stage. Without this as a catalyst, you probably would have had continuing division from the opposition benches over what kind of legislative process etc. Now their being forced to group up.
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  4. #2484

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    A fair point, its certainly the extreme option of the all the routes Boris could have taken. I suspect though it is somewhat to do with the chance in tack that Boris is only seeking to remove the Irish back-stop announced yesterday, and the building fury of the 'No-deal' Brexiteers within the Conservative party, who want to see major changes to May's deal, or indeed it simply scrapped altogether. It might be then an attempt to save the Government falling into the 'May position' of two significant hostile groups, while Boris negotiates a deal during the suspension (as ostensibly he's said he will do) and then has time with Parliament still suspended to convince a suitable number of less-fantatic MP's to back it or face no-deal.

    This interpretation though requires that Boris is acting on good faith and intends to get a deal (one which simply removes the back-stop), which apparently is a perception that the EU have publicly with their '30 day challenge' to Boris- https://www.theguardian.com/politics...johnson-brexit

    Indeed in this context if everyone is doing as they've publicly stated, Boris might well come back with a mechanism that sees the back-stop removed and then accepts the rest of May's deal.

    The above though is a very generous interpretation of the situation, devoid of my usual cynicism .

    More cynically is that he's trying to prevent a 'legislative solution' that prevents him doing no-deal, by removing as much time as he could get away with. This i think has somewhat backfired, as while nothing is certain, its equally a gamble for Boris, if he could survive a VoNC, survive a 'humble address' if he refuses to resign after said VoNC, or indeed survive a subsequent GE. A GE that even if carried out after the 31st would be still politically hell for the Tories as any disruption from 'No-deal' due to lack of preparation will haunt his Government, and likewise might result in a very different Brexit direction that essentially 'scraps' no deal, by that an EU retroactive extension to a new Government, or Labour simply signing up to a close customs Union.

    So essentially, i agree its not really all that bad, but doesn't really make sense for Boris to do at this stage. Without this as a catalyst, you probably would have had continuing division from the opposition benches over what kind of legislative process etc. Now their being forced to group up.
    Don't be naive Dante. The PM doesn't expect for the United Kingdom to have left the European Union without an agreement in the run up to a general election; he's knows that if Parliament blocks no deal it absolves him of his pledge to leave by the 31st of October. He can then go back to the electorate as the leader who did everything he could to see an exit through (even going so far as suspend Parliament) but was thwarted by a Commons which refused to accept the 2016 referendum. That narrative is his best shot of getting back Brexit Party voters - and if he can do that the he wins the general election.

    In the event that Parliament isn't able to block a no deal exit (either because the legislation or the no confidence vote fails) the PM will come to an 11th hour agreement with the European Union which makes a few adjustments to the backstop but is effectively a reheated version of May's withdrawal agreement. Parliament will then be forced either to accept his deal or be held responsible for the United Kingdom exiting the European Union without an agreement. If they accept his deal then he's the all conquering hero who saved Brexit both from the "rabble alliance" and the WTO extremists and if they don't then the fallout of no deal is on them.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; August 28, 2019 at 01:58 PM.

  5. #2485

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    For once epicfail is right about something, we must be doomed.

    A GE is unavoidable at this point. The remain vote is split between labour and lib dem with a great deal of people distrustful of labour. Boris has nailed the leave vote and may be able to slide in to powerwith a labour vote share massacred by lib dems.

  6. #2486

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    For once epicfail is right about something, we must be doomed.

    A GE is unavoidable at this point. The remain vote is split between labour and lib dem with a great deal of people distrustful of labour. Boris has nailed the leave vote and may be able to slide in to powerwith a labour vote share massacred by lib dems.
    No he has not. If he'd "nailed" the leave vote he wouldn't be pratting around suspending Parliament and making disingenuous do or die statements about the United Kingdom exiting the European Union on Oct. 31st come what may. He'd simply call the election and win.

  7. #2487

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    But in order to call a general election, he needs a qualified majority vote in Parliament... what if he doesn't have it?
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  8. #2488
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    ’ What is ‘hard UK sovereignty’.... A hard border doesn’t make Northern Ireland any more or any less a British territory... A hard border doesn't break the GFA.
    The Belfast agreement does not prevent customs checks between N.Ireland and the Republic, but a hard border -hard British sovereignty- has the potential to break it. In doubt ask Tony Blair, John Major and Nigel Lawson: in 2016, Lawson, the chairman of the Leave campaign was asked during a debate at Chatham House about the effect of Brexit on the Irish border. He said that it would be great if the Republic of Ireland where to admit it made a mistake getting independence and come back within the UK.
    Here: Lord Lawson jokes Republic of Ireland 'may ask to rejoin UK' - BBC ...
    ---
    Read also Boris's letter to Tusk.
    He argues the the GFA is founded on the protection of minority rights, and that's not true, there is not a unionist majority and a nationalist minority. No,there is no such a thing as a unionist majority. In fact there is only one majority- the majority for backstop.
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  9. #2489

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elmetiacos View Post
    But in order to call a general election, he needs a qualified majority vote in Parliament... what if he doesn't have it?
    That's not relevant for two reasons:

    1. He would only want to call a general election in circumstances where he was the clear favourite in the polls. Since that isn't currently true, he can afford to wait until it's forced upon him.
    2. Corbyn has already committed himself to supporting a new general election and, given the circumstances, he won't have a better chance than this to get into power. Were he to refuse to back a motion for a new election he would lose all credibility.

  10. #2490
    JP226's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Me arriving home and being told the news.

    So you'd rather have a rogue parliament setup to defeat a democratic referendum, that had 72% turnout, to keep sovereignty from the British people? Love European's idea of "democracy." It's my fave.
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

  11. #2491
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Good question is, what will EU offer in case of being asked for yet another brexit extension. After 31th October, we will cross all the lines and UK basically should be participating in all EU agendas. It is against EU principles to keep UK citizen without appropriate representation in EU organs and that is basically what UK is +/- doing since EU election. ...It might be kinda choice "no-deal" or "you ed up so much,so you are part of EU till next EU election.." ...with possible ability to leave after agreement is found and agreed by both UK/EU. Basically what we have now...UK had opportunity to leave sooner but nothing changed in UK, agreement was not ratified by parliament and so on.

    So big question is the UK role in EU in case of extension. Can UK/EU accept that "UK is leaving wink wink wink" so basically UK will be without representation. Plus can we imagine another 6 month extension? We got two already and basically nothing changed in home Uk politics so EU should offer longer one or none to unlock the situation and lower the pressure.

    Simply saying here is 5years extension. You can leave as soon as you ratify any deal (and EU agrees) and now solve your home politics mess.....get GE, second referendum..whatever, solve Scotland, NI....

  12. #2492
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Well, it's a calculated gamble by Boris, but may entail unforeseen consequences...
    Sturgeon says shutting parliament 'is not democracy, it's dictatorship

    "Expect litigation – starting in Scotland" said Ros Kellaway, the head of Brexit and EU law.
    According to John Bercow... parliamentary suspension is a constitutional outrage
    For Philip Hammond, the move was "profoundly undemocratic".
    Corbyn agrees to prioritize legislation to stop no deal Brexit.
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  13. #2493
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Don't be naive Dante. The PM doesn't expect for the United Kingdom to have left the European Union without an agreement in the run up to a general election; he's knows that if Parliament blocks no deal it absolves him of his pledge to leave by the 31st of October. He can then go back to the electorate as the leader who did everything he could to see an exit through (even going so far as suspend Parliament) but was thwarted by a Commons which refused to accept the 2016 referendum. That narrative is his best shot of getting back Brexit Party voters - and if he can do that the he wins the general election.

    In the event that Parliament isn't able to block a no deal exit (either because the legislation or the no confidence vote fails) the PM will come to an 11th hour agreement with the European Union which makes a few adjustments to the backstop but is effectively a reheated version of May's withdrawal agreement. Parliament will then be forced either to accept his deal or be held responsible for the United Kingdom exiting the European Union without an agreement. If they accept his deal then he's the all conquering hero who saved Brexit both from the "rabble alliance" and the WTO extremists and if they don't then the fallout of no deal is on them.
    Fair points and a good interpretation. While i agree that Boris is by no means a 'real' brexiteer, i tend to allot a lot less agency to him than you do here (As i see him quite reliant on the 'brexiteer'/ERG base he's built up, and thus needs to listen carefully to those perspectives)- but there is indeed huge scope for him to essentially come back with a differently worded May's deal.

    I think importantly though, he would need more than Brexit party supporters to retain his seats, he somehow needs to grab back the Tory remainers from the lib-dems to have a clear success at winning (A point which complicates 95th Riflemans argument about the remain vote being split- it is, but not quite to the same extent as the leave vote, with a brexit party still not trusting Boris, especially as 'tactical voting' may play a greater role for 'remain' voters).

    I think also the Scottish factor may complicate this picture- Ruth Davidson is resigning reportedly tomorrow, ostensibly this was planned prior to the current mess, but its no coincidence she's had allies in the press talking about her 'differences' with Boris being a contributing factor, its likely that this suspension of Parliament will further thus undermine the Unionist case, which for Scotland Davidson was a key figure, being an 'appealing Tory' to Scottish Unionists as she's what Thatcher would call a 'wet'. He might get his brexit protection from this (and its a very good point about it being a shield from both sides fanatics), but i think the cost might be rather high in terms of undermining the Unions stability at an already precarious time.
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  14. #2494
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by JP226 View Post
    So you'd rather have a rogue parliament setup to defeat a democratic referendum.
    There is no such a thing as a rogue Parliament.
    Voters can change their minds on a second referendum. Examples: Denmark on the Maastricht Treaty, Ireland on the Nice Treaty and Ireland again on the Lisbon Treaty.
    ---
    Philip Allott: The Problem of Direct Democracy: Brexit and the Tyranny - UK Constitutional Law Association Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University.
    Excerpt,

    The development of parliamentary democracy, a form of indirect democracy, has been at the heart of British history for seven centuries. Direct democracy is decisive political power exercised by the people other than through established constitutional processes. In practice, the commitments in the election manifesto of a political party have not been regarded as binding, politically or legally, on an incoming government. Our established constitutional processes have not included referendums that are not legally binding but are treated as binding by a government.
    (...)It is interesting that the Brexit process, which might be seen as a deliberate violation of the centuries-long role of Parliament as the place where the voice of the people makes itself heard and takes legal effect, seems to have given a new lease of life to the House of Commons as the ultimate arbiter of a major and much disputed potential change in British constitutionalism, a change that could put at risk the constitutional unity of the United Kingdom, and would set dramatically different conditions for Britain’s participation in an international constitutional order which is itself living perilously close to the edge of chaos.
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  15. #2495
    JP226's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    There is no such a thing as a rogue Parliament.
    Voters can change their minds on a second referendum. Examples: Denmark on the Maastricht Treaty, Ireland on the Nice Treaty and Ireland again on the Lisbon Treaty.
    ---
    Philip Allott: The Problem of Direct Democracy: Brexit and the Tyranny - UK Constitutional Law Association Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University.
    Excerpt,
    Lol @voters changing their mind. Is this how we justify things? Votes don’t come out right, we do “do overs”?

    Again, it’s laughable how “democracy” works in Europe.
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

  16. #2496

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Fair points and a good interpretation. While i agree that Boris is by no means a 'real' brexiteer, i tend to allot a lot less agency to him than you do here (As i see him quite reliant on the 'brexiteer'/ERG base he's built up, and thus needs to listen carefully to those perspectives)- but there is indeed huge scope for him to essentially come back with a differently worded May's deal.
    These people spend most of their lives scheming with teams of professionals on how to acquire power. Johnson had plotted his ascension to Downing Street for years; I think it's pretty obvious that he's thought through the risks - even if they do end up back firing on him.

    I think importantly though, he would need more than Brexit party supporters to retain his seats, he somehow needs to grab back the Tory remainers from the lib-dems to have a clear success at winning (A point which complicates 95th Riflemans argument about the remain vote being split- it is, but not quite to the same extent as the leave vote, with a brexit party still not trusting Boris, especially as 'tactical voting' may play a greater role for 'remain' voters).
    I doubt it. If he takes back the usual Conservative Party voters who have defected to the Brexit Party he will almost certainly win the election on account of Corbyn's woeful popularity and the remain split between the Liberals and Labour. The Kantar poll of a week or so ago found that the Conservative Party had a 14 pt. lead when the Brexit Party wasn't prompted in the questioning. There's a good 10+% of the voting electorate that Johnson can win from the Brexit Party, and I think it very unlikely that he won't win a majority if he's polling 12-14 pts above Labour in the general election.

    I think also the Scottish factor may complicate this picture- Ruth Davidson is resigning reportedly tomorrow, ostensibly this was planned prior to the current mess, but its no coincidence she's had allies in the press talking about her 'differences' with Boris being a contributing factor, its likely that this suspension of Parliament will further thus undermine the Unionist case, which for Scotland Davidson was a key figure, being an 'appealing Tory' to Scottish Unionists as she's what Thatcher would call a 'wet'. He might get his brexit protection from this (and its a very good point about it being a shield from both sides fanatics), but i think the cost might be rather high in terms of undermining the Unions stability at an already precarious time.
    Scotland is a lost cause as far as pro-exit Parliamentary seats are concerned irrespective of Ruth Davidson. Johnson really cannot pacify the Scottish nationalists and leave voters at the same time.

  17. #2497

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by JP226 View Post
    Lol @voters changing their mind. Is this how we justify things? Votes don’t come out right, we do “do overs”?

    Again, it’s laughable how “democracy” works in Europe.
    It's actually worse than you think. What he's not telling you is that voters in France and the Netherlands voted down the "Treaty for Establishing a Constitution for Europe" in 2005, so the Union simply rebranded it as the "Lisbon Treaty" and forced it through the European Parliament anyway (with the consent of the respective members of the European Council). In the United Kingdom, the then Labour government had pledged to hold a referendum to determine whether the the UK would agree to the new constitutional settlement but then called it off when it looked like the answer would be no. When the settlement was rehashed as the Lisbon Treaty, the British government also signed up to it without asking the electorate on the basis that it was technically different.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; August 28, 2019 at 03:36 PM.

  18. #2498
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Can anyone from the UK confirm that Johnson suspending parliament is essentially use of his royal mandate? I don't see how it could be derived from Parliament, even indirectly, if it allows him to prorogue or even dismiss said parliament.

    It's strange to see, because despite living in a constitutional monarchy myself, I find it somewhat unsettling that the UK parliament does not appear to reign supreme and seems subject to the whims of a Royal appointee.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  19. #2499
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Question is, why Johnson did not request proroguing parliament from today? Queen accepted it, so probably even today datum would be fine...so why is he shooting so far into future? Parliament has some time before it happens....time to react.

  20. #2500

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Can anyone from the UK confirm that Johnson suspending parliament is essentially use of his royal mandate? I don't see how it could be derived from Parliament, even indirectly, if it allows him to prorogue or even dismiss said parliament.
    It's normal when a new government comes in for there to be a short break before the Queen's Speech where the new government's policies are announced. What is weird about this one is the fact that it's 50% longer than any previous gap, particularly with what's going on at the moment. It looks a little dodgy. The Queen however, is supposed to stay non-political and acts on what the PM says. There might be some sort of legal case about what exactly can and can't be done in respect of this dodginess. Boris Johnson can't dismiss parliament; nobody since Charles I got his head cut off can do that.
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