Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2441

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    I think you'll find the problem isn't Labour, it's Corbyn. Nobody trusts him, he's an unprincipled flip-flopper who should of resigned when he lost a no confidence vote and when he lost an election. I love the hypocrisy of lefties saying Boris has to quit if he loses a vonc, which i don't think he will.

    Quite frankly if anyone should lead a remain coalition it's the bloody lib dems.
    The Lib Dems should lead a remain coalition? Really? Not the party with the majority of the popular support, 247 seats and which is actually Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition?? Riiiiight... you'd go for the party with minimal support and only 14 seats. Brilliant idea. I'm sure the Brexiteers will love that.

    As for the VONC thing, it triggered a leadership election which Corbyn won. The rules for a parliamentary VONC are quite different to that of the internal Labour Party rules. So I'm really not sure where the accusations of hypocrisy come from. Perhaps you'd like to share whatever Daily Mail/Express article you cribbed that from.

    It is very ironic that you call Corbyn a flip-flopper (Yuck, I hate Americanisms!) when Swinson was an vehement believer in Austerity when in coalition and now distances herself from it. While I may not agree with everything Corbyn says or does, he is at least consistent in his beliefs.

    Unlike Jo Swinson, who is utterly untrustworthy...
    Last edited by TheLeft; August 15, 2019 at 11:08 AM. Reason: wibble

  2. #2442

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Divorces can be messy, and Britain's exit from the EU is a divorce.

    What were the specific reasons for those who voted against remaining in EU to want to leave?
    - Is it the ease which allowed citizens of one EU country to move into another? ThAt does represent a partial loss of sovereignty which some might object to.

    - Or was the rejection of the EU on more economic grounds?


    Would the EU be willing to compromise on the principle of freedom of movement in the EU, to allow countries to be able to impose more restrictions than currently, or is that something the EU won't compromise on?

  3. #2443

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeft View Post
    The Lib Dems should lead a remain coalition? Really? Not the party with the majority of the popular support, 247 seats and which is actually Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition?? Riiiiight... you'd go for the party with minimal support and only 14 seats. Brilliant idea. I'm sure the Brexiteers will love that.

    As for the VONC thing, it triggered a leadership election which Corbyn won. The rules for a parliamentary VONC are quite different to that of the internal Labour Party rules. So I'm really not sure where the accusations of hypocrisy come from. Perhaps you'd like to share whatever Daily Mail/Express article you cribbed that from.

    It is very ironic that you call Corbyn a flip-flopper (Yuck, I hate Americanisms!) when Swinson was an vehement believer in Austerity when in coalition and now distances herself from it. While I may not agree with everything Corbyn says or does, he is at least consistent in his beliefs.

    Unlike Jo Swinson, who is utterly untrustworthy...
    Consistent in his beliefs? Have you seen his historic position on the EU? Suddenly he has a shot at power against a brexit opposition and he goes from one of the country's biggest opponents of the EU to trying to spin himself into the remain messiah.

  4. #2444
    Alastor's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Corbyn seems to be an extremely polarizing figure. On one hand he has loyal supporters, certainly in Labour, but much of the opposition doesn't trust him and as far as the conservatives go he is basically the Antichrist. I was just watching an interview with a conservative MP and he was effectively saying that should Corbyn become the PM the 10 plagues will ravage the UK. I'm curious why that came to be. It certainly feels a bit excessive. Even Boris Johnson is less polarizing and he's been called "Britain Trump" by the man himself.

  5. #2445

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I think Corbyn has over played his hand here. He's basicly stating that the aim of the vonc is for him to get into power, bypassing an election.

    Even the most die-hard Tory remainers would rather support Boris than risk losing power, especialy considering hat Corbyn could do, even under a limited care-taker government.

    The Lib Dems know that if Corbyn sweeps in and plays the remain messiah with a second referendum then there is no real point for many remainers to vote lib dem over labour, it's better for them to support Boris and avoid no deal by other means or go through with the vonc but force a general election by not allowing labour to form a government.

    The SNP can't afford to support labour and risk Scottish remainers voting labour to secure remain.

  6. #2446
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    So its two weeks to my thesis submission, so i'm afraid i haven't followed the discussion as well as i'd like. But summary of where things stand.

    The calls for the national unity government who would remain in power only temporarily, enact no party-based legislation and disband following 'dealing' with brexit has created something very interesting maneuvers. Some Conservative rebels are actually holding talks with Corbyn (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...j61lkgysp9Jeok), while the Lib-dems are not keen on the idea (role reversal ).

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ium=Social&utm

    Seems that regardless Boris may now lose his last MP- the guy has openly stated he would back Corbyn's suggestion over no-deal. There are now demands that the whip is removed from him.

    The other Tory rebels are yet to meet and disclose.

    We also have all the technical plans underway by around 40-70 Tory MP's apparently (20 of who came right out with the letter to Boris) to do things like seize control of Parliament (That precedent will really be a killer), and prevent Boris doing a no-deal. Apparently also the EU is willing to allow an extension retroactively, so even if Boris tries to 'draw out' an election, but subsequently loses, it doesn't matter.

    On the other hand, Boris has a core group of the ERG who will reportedly not accept any leaving of the EU that is not a no-deal. So i think its safe to call it that he's in May 2.0 territory now, between a rock and a hard place. It might turn out the only thing for him to do is roll the dice and do a GE before brexit, the Tories are leading in some polls by 5%, the Brexit Party would still be a factor limiting the Tory vote and May did the same with a far greater lead and got butchered. Domestic policy is look incredibly shakey (Rail, NHS funding has now been mired in controversy as it seems its merely Boris playing creative numbers with where the funding is coming from) so its not a great time for Boris to hold a GE. The Lib-dems may also come to regret their quick-fire rejection of Corbyn's offer as the basis of their argument that Corbyn could not get the support of needed Tories, is slightly undermined by the likes of Dominic Grieve wecloming the offer for talks, this has somewhat resonated among Remainers and will be interesting to see if it shifts away some of the support built up by the lib-dems back to Labour.

    On the other hand, Boris might still be able to hope for the Greens and Lib-dems taking enough of the vote to offset the Brexit Party. So it'll be up in the air, but certainly its not the circumstances any PM would want to have to thrown the dice on.

    EDIT: BBC News at 10- as i kinda suspected, Jo Swinson is now willing to meet and talk with Corbyn off the back of the Tory MP's also saying this. I think she realized the awkward political position she'd got herself in. Will anything come of these talks is now the main question. It could be Corbyn after 'initiating' has thus the got the Political kudos to then stand aside and let an 'impartial' leader take control over any National Unity government. However, equally likely (give Corbyn operates very differently to the typical game of politics- the amount of times i've got ffs at him...) is Corbyn demands its him. In this context he's got some Tories on board prepared to give him the go-ahead as they fear no-deal brexit more than him. But can the lib-dems support it? More importantly perhaps can the lib-dems afford NOT to support it? Given their whole premise is 'remain' how do they tell their current share of the electorate that they rejected the chance to topple Johnson due to party political differences? Interesting stuff ahead.

    EDIT EDIT:

    Ok, so might be of interest to everyone:

    https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2249

    It shows how polls would probably translate to seats (Because with FPTP you have issues like Labour's super-majority strongholds and geographical spread which just simply percentages leave out)

    The problem for the Conservatives here is that even with Boris, under every single recent poll bar one, they don't get enough to form a government. They also in nearly all even with a DUP alliance (that's with 10, but polling in N.Ireland recently shows the DUP would drop to 8 seats, so they become of no help) do not get over the line to form a government. A Labour-Lib-SNP block though would.

    The Brexit Party despite polling around 15-16% will only get 1 seat, at the expense of the Conservatives.

    The problem for Labour here is that under every single recent poll bar one, they also don't get enough to form a government, and creating that coalition would be incredibly difficult.

    However with brexit as the 'big context' (These polls assume an early GE of course, which is rather likely currently) its feasible that the results of this become that 'Government of National Unity' (only this time without needing the Conservatives at all) who hold a second ref on brexit.

    So the biggest threat to brexit is essentially Boris (As the 'bounce' has meant that in key areas the Conservatives lose to the Lib-dems) and the Brexit party who will split the vote by simply existing while due to FPTP bringing nothing to the table. Again Boris seems to be May 2.0, hes polarizing enough to push away traditional tory support of those like One-Nation conservatism to the lib-dems, but isn't trusted/liked enough to actually obliterate the Brexit party.

    Now of course as we saw with Corbyn and the last GE, a lot can happen on the campaign trail, it might be Labour pull another 'domestic first' or that Brexit Party voters realize the fact that if they don't support the Tories, Brexit may be imperiled (the issue here is that Brexit party voters are also of the left, which Boris' domestic platform pushes away). But i think this will provide the context for a lot of the moves that will happen- it galvanize 'moderate' Tories who are softies on Brexit to either get rid of Johnson or try and force him to moderate his position, while the ERG hardies will perhaps feel that Boris is not being 'tough enough' to obliterate the Brexit party. For Boris it will certainly make him warier of calling a GE. For the Opposition it might galvanize them to aim for exactly that- Labour has according to this at least some chance of getting a majority on its own steam, but its just as likely Boris will. What's most likely is a hung parliament in the Opposition parties as a whole favour.

    In terms of the smaller parties, the Lib-dems certainly would be raring to go for a GE under any poll.

    Likewise, the big thing regarding the Union is that the Tories get annihilated in Scotland, as do Labour, and the Lib-dems retain a minor presence. The SNP in nearly all these polls gain 46-52 seats- nearly all of Scotland. That's a big factor for the longevity of the UK's unity. Again due to Boris, the Tories lose Scotland, and the Unionist support has just gone- it hasn't even transferred to the lib-dems, who would make sense if it was simply a pro-remain factor. But its something i suspect earlier that Brexit and the Governments handling of it presented a huge amount of ammunition for the SNP to to drum up the perception of just how different the political cultures of England and Scotland have become, and brexit by Remain using the same arguments we unionists used, and EU membership being on the line, trashed the the basis for staying in the Union.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; August 16, 2019 at 02:26 AM.
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  7. #2447

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by 95thrifleman View Post
    Consistent in his beliefs? Have you seen his historic position on the EU? Suddenly he has a shot at power against a brexit opposition and he goes from one of the country's biggest opponents of the EU to trying to spin himself into the remain messiah.
    Actually his personal beliefs haven't changed. Corbyn is and always will be a Euro Sceptic. Unlike some political parties (and I'm looking at you Brexit Party!), The Labour Party is a democracy. The overwhelming groundswell of support from Labour members is for remain and hence the policy change. I think it actually reflects pretty well that a leader is able to put his personal beliefs aside and listen to the other people in his party. A No Deal will be a disaster and Corbyn trying to get a cross-party consensus to stop it bad because...?

    Oh yeah, sorry I forgot, Corbyn's a nasty Commie because the Daily Mail says so...

  8. #2448
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeft View Post
    Actually his personal beliefs haven't changed. Corbyn is and always will be a Euro Sceptic. Unlike some political parties (and I'm looking at you Brexit Party!), The Labour Party is a democracy. The overwhelming groundswell of support from Labour members is for remain and hence the policy change. I think it actually reflects pretty well that a leader is able to put his personal beliefs aside and listen to the other people in his party. A No Deal will be a disaster and Corbyn trying to get a cross-party consensus to stop it bad because...?

    Oh yeah, sorry I forgot, Corbyn's a nasty Commie because the Daily Mail says so...
    Either a clear case of Stockholm syndrome or they have something on him.

    It will be interesting how all this talk of setting up an emergency government will manifest itself. After what has been a extremely bad performance by Labour under Corbyn's leadership, he now sees the chance of being given the keys to No10 without even an election. Whilst the recent success of the Lib Dems looks set to be dashed by clipping their cart behind him to travel down a very rocky road indeed. This will not end well for either party.

    Meanwhile Brexit uncovers the genuineness of the "Special Relationship" between Britain and the States. After Nancy Pelosi said that the US Congress could well block a trade deal with "supposedly" its closet ally. I see this morning, a pension fund company for the Turkish army, is saving British steel and investing in its future development. It is good to know who your allies are, especially in a post Brexit world.
    No chance of US-UK deal if Northern Ireland peace at risk – Pelosi
    Senior US politician says Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil Good Friday agreement
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...at-risk-pelosi

  9. #2449

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?


    Jeremy Corbyn in 2009: "Don't scrap your posters...you're going to need them...because I've got a feeling they're just going to keep on voting until they get the answer they want".
    Jeremy Corbyn in 2019: "We need to keep on voting until they get the answer they want".

    Note: seems that embedding YT videos is broken for some reason.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; August 16, 2019 at 02:06 PM. Reason: Video fixed. Inside the YOUTUBE brackets, add only the part after "v=".

  10. #2450

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOUJADBo9zE

    Jeremy Corbyn in 2009: "Don't scrap your posters...you're going to need them...because I've got a feeling they're just going to keep on voting until they get the answer they want".
    Jeremy Corbyn in 2019: "We need to keep on voting until they get the answer they want".

    Note: seems that embedding YT videos is broken for some reason.
    Cool, I can play the quote game too, but only with far more recent quotes, and vastly more of them too...

    "There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside" - David Davis 10/10/2016
    "The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want" - Michael Gove 9/4/2016
    "Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards" - John Redwood 17/7/2016
    "The free trade deal we will have to with the European Union will be the easiest in human history" - Liam Fox 20/7/17
    "We will have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet being fired." - Nigel Farage a week after Jo Cox was shot and killed
    "Only a madman would actually leave the Market" - Owen Paterson
    "Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market" - Daniel Hannan MEP
    "I'd vote to stay in the single market. I'm in favour of the single market" - Boris Johnson 2013
    "“This is a market on our doorstep, ready for further exploitation by British firms. The membership fee seems rather small for all that access. Why are we so determined to turn our back on it?” - Boris Johnson 2013

    Want to keep playing? Or shall I continue?

  11. #2451
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

    So German´s counter threats to Boris seems that EU is willing to risk no-deal option and will not reopen the negotiations. I would say Boris last attempt on getting anything might be G7 summit else his only road is really no-deal option.

  12. #2452
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Meanwhile Brexit uncovers the genuineness of the "Special Relationship" between Britain and the States. After Nancy Pelosi said that the US Congress could well block a trade deal with "supposedly" its closet ally.
    The Congress in a bipartisan way has for months hinted that if Brexit damages the Good Friday accords there would be no easy slide into a US trade deal. If Pelosi said anything its only what congressional leaders on both sides have been saying for a while. Also relationships are two way street. A US friendly UK in the EU is realistically more valuable to the US than a lonely UK out.
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  13. #2453
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Leaked gov documets about expected no-deal scenario.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...whammer-report

  14. #2454

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    The Congress in a bipartisan way has for months hinted that if Brexit damages the Good Friday accords there would be no easy slide into a US trade deal. If Pelosi said anything its only what congressional leaders on both sides have been saying for a while. Also relationships are two way street. A US friendly UK in the EU is realistically more valuable to the US than a lonely UK out.
    I question that Pelosi's views represents both party's. Certainly Trump and many of the Republicans would support a trade deal with the UK, Good Friday accords not withstanding. Not sure where you get your idea that it would be a bipartisan rejection.

    However, the Democrats could block a trade deal, at least until how the next election comes out.

  15. #2455
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Leaked gov documets about expected no-deal scenario.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...whammer-report
    Exactly.
    The leaked document, detailing preparations under Operation Yellowhammer, argues that the most likely scenario is severe extended delays to medicine supplies and shortages of some fresh foods, combined with price rises, if there is a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.
    More food for thought: Ireland risks an economic crash, a post Brexit tech border is a complete nonsense, a surreal humor, and Scotland...

    Nicola Sturgeon warns Boris Johnson not to block independence vote ...
    Latest poll finds a majority in Scotland would vote yes in fresh referendum
    ------
    Obviously...Ireland tells Boris Johnson there will be no backstop ... - The Guardian

    Stefaan De Rynck, a lieutenant to the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, retweeted claims that British farmers would need to engage in mass culling of livestock in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
    He wrote: “You may believe this story or not. But clearly, Brexit means an adaptation for UK economy. Brexit disrupts.
    EU agreed to UK ask for a transition period in withdrawal agreement that eases adaptation"
    And there you go- given the circumstances,the sensible choices are: 1) a transition period to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit, or 2) a new referendum.
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  16. #2456

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I'm wondering if Boris assessed the situation properly before running for PM.
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  17. #2457
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    I'm wondering if Boris assessed the situation properly before running for PM.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-brexit-talks

    there you go....

    Boris Johnson has claimed that EU leaders will change their positions and allow the UK to scrap the Brexit backstop in the withdrawal agreement.

    As the prime minister prepares for face-to-face talks with Angela Merkel of Germany and Emmanuel Macron of France this week, he acknowledged there would be “bumps in the road” before any agreement to drop the plan to prevent a hard border in Ireland.

    It follows the leak of cabinet papers this weekend warning that carrying out Johnson’s threat of a no-deal Brexit would cause “incredibly serious” economic harm.

    “We will be ready to come out on October 31, deal or no deal,” Johnson said during a visit to Truro on Monday. Now of course our friends and partners on the other side of the Channel are showing a little bit of reluctance at the moment to change their position.

    “That’s fine – I’m confident that they will – but in the meantime we have to get ready for a no-deal outcome. I want a deal. We’re ready to work with our friends and partners to get a deal, but if you want a good deal for the UK, you must simultaneously get ready to come out without one.”
    Only thing that I will give to Boris is, he is playing harder than May. But the real question is, is he really willing to do no-deal and what the rest of country/parliament? If I remember correctly parliament voted that UK should leave with a deal and three time voted down no-deal option...

    EDIT:

    So Boris wrote to Tusk and is going to ask FR/Ger to ditch backstop once more.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rexit-backstop
    Last edited by Daruwind; August 19, 2019 at 08:25 PM.

  18. #2458

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

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    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  19. #2459
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    So Tusk,Merke say no to reopening/scrapping backstop. And No.10 will stop sending UK ministers and officials to EU meetings unless something important (security) and the voting right of UK are to be given to current EU presidency holder - Finland. If this is not giving up control, then i don´t know what is....Like only in do-deal scenario this make sense right? Because in case of any deal, UK should want to influece things...
    Last edited by Daruwind; August 20, 2019 at 09:40 AM.

  20. #2460
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Maybe Boris is the Second Coming.
    The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
    When a vast image out of Viz
    Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
    A shape with bloated body and the head of a man,
    A gaze blank and out of the front page of The Sun,
    Is moving its slow thighs
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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