Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2321
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    I think firstly on the issue of deselection- the main caveat to that is that as in the case of Grieve the local associations are moving to indeed de-selection MP's already, so for a fair few Tories of the Hammond-Grieve block, this is not longer an issue- their careers are done essentially, it was arguably a mistake for threats of de-selection at this stage, as it takes away the incentive to stay.

    Also as i mentioned 6 Tory MP's are indeed in talks to jump ship right now.

    In regards to the law, as i said indeed it is. But the default position is not fixed, especially as Opposition Days can as we've seen be used alongside rather archaic mechanisms to force binding votes if the circumstances are deemed 'extraordinary'. Even as we saw with Letwin, the Government, especially with such a small majority can lose control of the order paper and essentially back-benchers can take charge. The Speaker brought it to an end last time as it was heading nowhere, but the precedent was set (and of course was allowed in the first place), the Government on having such a small majority (which essentially breaks the usual running of Westminster as we've seen with every 'minority' or 'near-minority' government historically) is open to quite a bit of difficulty, even if they try to do something as simple as let the clock run down.

    So the default position would be secure, if Boris had a significant majority that counteracted the disunity within his own party, he lacks this though, so currently we're in 'interesting times' in which essentially within the limits of what the Speaker will allow, anything goes.
    For clarity, it wasn't the party that threatened them with deselection, that was their local associations. Also note that CCHQ can squash local activity, as they did when Soubry was nearly deselected by her local association.

    One of those six was Philip Lee, who has mysteriously paused his long-trailed defection to the Liberal Democrats. I'll believe they're going when I see them actually do it. Same goes all those claiming they'll vote the government down.

    I agree we live in Interesting Times as far as the Parliamentary procedure goes - but I think the Speaker will find he has a much tougher opponent in Rees-Mogg than he did in Leadsome or Stride.

    And again, the clock is against any attempt to change course from outside the government.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Then why UK is still not out? UK had at least two deadlines (31st March + 12th April) yet UK is still not out....
    Because the previous PM (who never really wanted to leave, no matter how much she lied to the contrary) kept asking for an extension. If the current PM does not ask for one, that avenue is closed.

  2. #2322

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Because the previous PM (who never really wanted to leave, no matter how much she lied to the contrary) kept asking for an extension. If the current PM does not ask for one, that avenue is closed.
    There is a majority in the House firmly against No Deal. There will be another Cooper-Letwin Act if necessary.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elmetiacos View Post
    There is a majority in the House firmly against No Deal. There will be another Cooper-Letwin Act if necessary.
    May did nothing to stop them usurping the order paper, which enabled the Cooper-Letwin Act. I think we might find Johnson does rather more with the levers at his disposal.

    Makes a big difference whether or not the PM is actually trying to stop those sorts of unconstitutional ploys. Not to mention simply sending everyone home by proroguing.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Why am I not surprised?
    Sinn Féin: vote on Irish reunification must follow no-deal Brexit | UK
    ---
    Boris- the demagogue is crowned, the country burns.

    Last edited by Ludicus; August 03, 2019 at 05:12 PM. Reason: typo
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    John Oliver, that authoritative source on British politics...

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    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    For clarity, it wasn't the party that threatened them with deselection, that was their local associations. Also note that CCHQ can squash local activity, as they did when Soubry was nearly deselected by her local association.

    One of those six was Philip Lee, who has mysteriously paused his long-trailed defection to the Liberal Democrats. I'll believe they're going when I see them actually do it. Same goes all those claiming they'll vote the government down.

    I agree we live in Interesting Times as far as the Parliamentary procedure goes - but I think the Speaker will find he has a much tougher opponent in Rees-Mogg than he did in Leadsome or Stride.

    And again, the clock is against any attempt to change course from outside the government.
    Indeed it was, though the mistake i'd refer to was that CCHQ has not for instance quashed the threat to de-select Grieves for instance, that its still hanging over him is something of an issue when the majority is 1. I think indeed it is very much a wait and see regarding Tory rebels and what they might do. For my part, i think if it becomes clear in a few weeks that No-deal is the course that we're on (I.e. Boris's proposed re-negotiation as current does not get off the ground) then we'll see moves being made by Tory remainers. This is partly because most of them genuinely feel that a Tory party who delivers brexit will no longer be electable due to the aftermath (which is a toned version of my analysis that 'brexit' regardless of if its leave or remain, will remain a politically contentious issue long after we've left or stayed, especially as realistically the post-brexit adjustment phase is a political battle for the 'type' of Britain they varying factions wish to see, one of those visions is bound to be rejoining or close alignment, the same also goes though if we remain or Soft brexit it, its not a decision that will be accepted or secure for years) then we'll see action. However if Boris get's a deal (Which in all likelihood will be nothing more than a re-worded May's deal), he might stave off any action to topple him, but its not something that would endear him to his current support base.

    Though who knows currently, historically we've never had a less secure government (even with previous minority governments the party in Governance has never been so fractured), nor though has at the same time the main opposition been so fragmented. With the lib-dems and brexit party confronting the big two with at best, diminished vote share, and at worst the loss of seats, its hard to say what will happen. For instance even on the 31st with No-deal, with such a slight majority, the next phase of shaping brexit will be hellish for all parties, perhaps even more so than now. The Lib-dems certainly will campaign to rejoin (which i suspect at that point would be very bad for the UK considering the loss of our opt-outs and privileged position), Labour's close alignment will be in contrast to Boris 'Global Britain', so there is no chance of a meeting of minds, and polarization may simply become more pronounced. The Brexit Party if it still is a force after a no-deal brexit will also suffer internal issues due to its members while all wanting brexit, all having a very different vision of a post-brexit UK. So the current main 4 influences on this process will potentially disintegrate further (because of course too not all Tories want 'Global Britain' and not all of Labour are happy with Corbyn's vision). With all that mess still to come, we're in for a lot of discussion i suspect .
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    John Oliver, that authoritative source on British politics...
    John Oliver is spot on, and clearly explains what is at stake.Video, Minute 19:15, please. General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.The Andrew Neil interview: the paragraph 5C article 24 makes it clear that it is impossible to trade freely with the EU under the article 24.

    Andrew: "How do you handle the paragraph 5C?"
    Boris stutters:" I would..I would...confide entirely in paragraph 5B."
    Andrew:" how would you get around what's in 5C?
    Boris:" I...would confide entirely in paragraph 5B"
    Andrew: " Do you know what purposes the paragraph 5C? "
    Boris, the demagogue, feeling uncomfortable: "No"

    --
    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    my part, i think if it becomes clear in a few weeks that No-deal is the course that we're on
    Absolutely.Here's the thing:it's a no deal or a new referendum.
    As the the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, has said: "Brexit was caused partly by nostalgia for the past,the hope for a return to a powerful global Britain"


    Last edited by Ludicus; August 03, 2019 at 05:59 PM.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Why am I not surprised?
    Sinn Féin: vote on Irish reunification must follow no-deal Brexit | UK
    ---
    Boris- the demagogue is crowned, the country burns.

    So, liberals support ethno-nationalism now?

  9. #2329
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    ???
    This is not the right place to discuss your favourite- and almost exclusive subject: the White Europe.Please don't derail this thread.
    ---
    No, Boris/UK: you can't have the best of both worlds, being inside and outside of the EU simultaneously.
    And- Irish politics needs to wake up to the consequences of a no-deal Brexit
    The main threat from a crashout is political and constitutional
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Harry Truman Oct. 10th, 1952

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    ''United Ireland''--- unites Irish people, aka an ethnic group (not ''all whites'' that's a liberal obsession).

    You are merging two countries according to one criteria and that's ethnicity; or not? What else are uniting?

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Indeed it was, though the mistake i'd refer to was that CCHQ has not for instance quashed the threat to de-select Grieves for instance, that its still hanging over him is something of an issue when the majority is 1. I think indeed it is very much a wait and see regarding Tory rebels and what they might do. For my part, i think if it becomes clear in a few weeks that No-deal is the course that we're on (I.e. Boris's proposed re-negotiation as current does not get off the ground) then we'll see moves being made by Tory remainers. This is partly because most of them genuinely feel that a Tory party who delivers brexit will no longer be electable due to the aftermath (which is a toned version of my analysis that 'brexit' regardless of if its leave or remain, will remain a politically contentious issue long after we've left or stayed, especially as realistically the post-brexit adjustment phase is a political battle for the 'type' of Britain they varying factions wish to see, one of those visions is bound to be rejoining or close alignment, the same also goes though if we remain or Soft brexit it, its not a decision that will be accepted or secure for years) then we'll see action. However if Boris get's a deal (Which in all likelihood will be nothing more than a re-worded May's deal), he might stave off any action to topple him, but its not something that would endear him to his current support base.
    I'm afraid Tory Remainers are utterly divorced from both the party membership and the voters. They might "feel" no deal would be a disaster, but that's the only thing that will save the party from annihilation at the next election. The general public isn't anywhere near as agitated about no deal (and let's drop the pretence, what they really object to is genuinely leaving the EU) as some vocal Remainer Parliamentarians. BRINO will mean the end of the Conservatives, given 70% of their voter base are Leavers and won't be fobbed off with May's pretend exit. Even worse if they try to revoke Article 50.

    What the Remainer MPs pretending to be worried about no deal (but really concerned about a real exit) are most exercised about is that a clean break will not result in the Armageddon they have hysterically over-hyped, but instead not be much to talk about by comparison. Which will make all the arguments for rejoining hollow.

    Tory Remainers are wrong. They are the threat to the party's long-term survival, not Johnson and not no deal. Because if they get their way, the Brexit party will split their vote and it will be a wipeout for them. I've voted Conservative at every single election of every kind for almost 20 years. This year was the first time I didn't. If the Remainers succeed, they definitely won't be getting my vote ever again, and I'm far from alone.

    Let's remember what the "One Nation" soft-left wing of the party has brought us in this century. Two hung Parliaments, and only one majority when they stole UKIP's clothes. No one wants a "conservative" party trying to be liberals. There are real liberal parties who can do that much more authentically.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Though who knows currently, historically we've never had a less secure government (even with previous minority governments the party in Governance has never been so fractured), nor though has at the same time the main opposition been so fragmented. With the lib-dems and brexit party confronting the big two with at best, diminished vote share, and at worst the loss of seats, its hard to say what will happen. For instance even on the 31st with No-deal, with such a slight majority, the next phase of shaping brexit will be hellish for all parties, perhaps even more so than now. The Lib-dems certainly will campaign to rejoin (which i suspect at that point would be very bad for the UK considering the loss of our opt-outs and privileged position), Labour's close alignment will be in contrast to Boris 'Global Britain', so there is no chance of a meeting of minds, and polarization may simply become more pronounced. The Brexit Party if it still is a force after a no-deal brexit will also suffer internal issues due to its members while all wanting brexit, all having a very different vision of a post-brexit UK. So the current main 4 influences on this process will potentially disintegrate further (because of course too not all Tories want 'Global Britain' and not all of Labour are happy with Corbyn's vision). With all that mess still to come, we're in for a lot of discussion i suspect .
    I agree, it's all up in the air. Both main parties could be facing their end very soon. And I'm with you that leaving isn't the end, because Brexit is about more than just leaving the EU. We've had a fundamental re-alignment of politics in this country, and the existing parties are playing catch-up.

  12. #2332

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    So, liberals support ethno-nationalism now?
    How did you get that?

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Basil your posts here are starting to become parodies of themselves.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There is nothing to suggest dramatically that his heart is giving out. His heart attack is a testament to how well he can recover from something like that.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It is pretty simple. While both Rep. of Ireland and UK in EU, it covered a lot things....or make them not issue. Like Good Friday Agreement, possible future unification (there will be referendum if the support for it is big enough). And Brexit, especially no-deal can be cataclysm. It is cluster up to now. Circus. I´m not discussing UK right to govern itself or leave EU but the style in which previous three years were conducted. Cameron´s call for referendum followed by his resignation due to bad result, badly prepared referendum without any real majority for long term planning (66-75%), construct long term plan on 2% difference is bad idea, al the negotiation under May, lies everywhere (NHS money..), Actually missing twice deadline (29th March, 12th April), completely no preparation and ability to get trade deals.....and now Boris. Sorry guys, If I was from northern Ireland, I would jump the ship.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    It is pretty simple. While both Rep. of Ireland and UK in EU, it covered a lot things....or make them not issue. Like Good Friday Agreement, possible future unification (there will be referendum if the support for it is big enough). And Brexit, especially no-deal can be cataclysm. It is cluster up to now. Circus. I´m not discussing UK right to govern itself or leave EU but the style in which previous three years were conducted. Cameron´s call for referendum followed by his resignation due to bad result, badly prepared referendum without any real majority for long term planning (66-75%), construct long term plan on 2% difference is bad idea, al the negotiation under May, lies everywhere (NHS money..), Actually missing twice deadline (29th March, 12th April), completely no preparation and ability to get trade deals.....and now Boris. Sorry guys, If I was from northern Ireland, I would jump the ship.
    Cameron, fresh from his victory in the Scottish referendum, assumed he couldn't lose. The whole establishment though they had a Remain win in the bag. When that didn't materialise, he didn't have the stomach to do the honourable thing and do as the people had instructed him.

    May is a pathological liar who never intended to leave the EU (see here - which mirrors the stance of Barnier who wanted so awful a "deal" that the UK would prefer to Remain). The chaos of the last three years was by design, an attempt to show just how impossible it was to leave, with the hope people would give up. That includes deliberately preventing preparations for a no deal exit until the last possible minute to "prove" how unready we were. Never mind that preparations have been going on in the meantime and have been amped up in the last week.

    As for trade deals, we're not allowed to sign any under the terms of reference May agreed at the start of the process.

    You clearly don't know anyone from Northern Ireland to make such a silly statement as your last one.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Cameron, fresh from his victory in the Scottish referendum, assumed he couldn't lose. The whole establishment though they had a Remain win in the bag. When that didn't materialise, he didn't have the stomach to do the honourable thing and do as the people had instructed him.
    So tell me which brexit option people voted exactly for? I usually get the reply, that that is up to politics to get it up and running however devil is in the details. As soon as I start asking if majority is for hard brexit or something else, no one option got the majority.

    Cameron left because he realized what cluster is ahead...2%. That´s not viable majority for decade long plan. We are three years in and brexiteeers are afraid of repeating referendum because they could lose this time. Three years...how often there are elections?

    May is a pathological liar who never intended to leave the EU (see here - which mirrors the stance of Barnier who wanted so awful a "deal" that the UK would prefer to Remain). The chaos of the last three years was by design, an attempt to show just how impossible it was to leave, with the hope people would give up. That includes deliberately preventing preparations for a no deal exit until the last possible minute to "prove" how unready we were. Never mind that preparations have been going on in the meantime and have been amped up in the last week.

    As for trade deals, we're not allowed to sign any under the terms of reference May agreed at the start of the process.
    Of course May talked primary with Ireland, France and Germany. But you fail to realize one important factor. All EU27 had to agree. So you are saying you cannot convice single EU state to back you up or be easy on UK? What I see is complete fail of UK diplomacy. What was supposed to be easiest negotiations ever (all neg together as there are no other diplomats for other areas like trades, it is fail of diplomacy and negotiators as whole)...Real issue is the referendum is simple question - yes/no. But real like is rarely so simple. I don´t like May and her style but one thing I cannot deny her, she was either brave or dumb enough to try it. I´m just curious what we will be talking about in October once UK will again not leave...

    You clearly don't know anyone from Northern Ireland to make such a silly statement as your last one.
    Actuall I do. My friend and co-worker family is from Northern Ireland, what´s more, mother side originally from UK moved to NI and father from Ireland itself. You know what? He returned like 3 weeks ago from summer holidays and was buffled. For first time in history both parts of family agreed upon one thing. UK goverment sucks a lot and is driving country without real goal. He thinks the doomsday is behind corner I don´t know, maybe they are special or unique. Cannot tell you that...

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    This feels like the Battle of France. UK is France in this situation, and Theresa May is Wayguard and her cabinet full of cowardly leaders that lost the enthausim for the war.

    Only Boris feels like Petain, while Nigel is Charles de Gaulle.





















































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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Wandering Storyteller View Post
    This feels like the Battle of France. UK is France in this situation, and Theresa May is Wayguard and her cabinet full of cowardly leaders that lost the enthausim for the war.

    Only Boris feels like Petain, while Nigel is Charles de Gaulle.
    Except Nigel is more like..I don´t know who. Chamberlain?

    I have theory about him, that he is only person in his political party who really doesn´t want to leave EU. Why? Because he has such good living out of it. He has work for life, still preaching against EU, having MEP seat, he is easily re-elected every time and can troll people over and over. I simply don´t think he is the savior so many have him for. He can sell his words, that´s true..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    So tell me which brexit option people voted exactly for? I usually get the reply, that that is up to politics to get it up and running however devil is in the details. As soon as I start asking if majority is for hard brexit or something else, no one option got the majority.

    Cameron left because he realized what cluster is ahead...2%. That´s not viable majority for decade long plan. We are three years in and brexiteeers are afraid of repeating referendum because they could lose this time. Three years...how often there are elections?
    The only one on the ballot, to leave the EU and become a third country. As Cameron said during the referendum campaign, if you vote to Leave, you accept that we leave the single market and customs union. The whole notion of "hard" and "soft" Brexit is nonsense invented by Remainers after the fact, to attempt to salami-slice the Leave vote.

    Over a million more people voted to Leave than Remain. It has a larger mandate than any government there has ever been in this country, so spare me the legitimacy waffle.

    Carry out the results of the first referendum before attempting to walk it back with a second.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Of course May talked primary with Ireland, France and Germany. But you fail to realize one important factor. All EU27 had to agree. So you are saying you cannot convice single EU state to back you up or be easy on UK? What I see is complete fail of UK diplomacy. What was supposed to be easiest negotiations ever (all neg together as there are no other diplomats for other areas like trades, it is fail of diplomacy and negotiators as whole)...Real issue is the referendum is simple question - yes/no. But real like is rarely so simple. I don´t like May and her style but one thing I cannot deny her, she was either brave or dumb enough to try it. I´m just curious what we will be talking about in October once UK will again not leave...
    No, May colluded with Merkel to stitch up something that looked a bit like leaving, but would enable a smooth re-entry after 2020. It certainly was a failure of UK diplomacy, largely due to the collusive way May's team worked with the EU, rather than representing the UK's interests. Funny how the messaging suddenly seems to have changed in tone now someone else is in charge.

    I think we might have a rather different conversation in November when the UK has left without an agreement. As Cummings said in the Telegraph today, Parliament has missed its chance to stop no deal. If they VONC the government, the general election will take place in November and we'll leave by default.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Actuall I do. My friend and co-worker family is from Northern Ireland, what´s more, mother side originally from UK moved to NI and father from Ireland itself. You know what? He returned like 3 weeks ago from summer holidays and was buffled. For first time in history both parts of family agreed upon one thing. UK goverment sucks a lot and is driving country without real goal. He thinks the doomsday is behind corner I don´t know, maybe they are special or unique. Cannot tell you that...
    OK, so you have some token representation. I know more than one person in and from Ulster.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Except Nigel is more like..I don´t know who. Chamberlain?

    I have theory about him, that he is only person in his political party who really doesn´t want to leave EU. Why? Because he has such good living out of it. He has work for life, still preaching against EU, having MEP seat, he is easily re-elected every time and can troll people over and over. I simply don´t think he is the savior so many have him for. He can sell his words, that´s true..
    Not exactly Cameron was Chamberlain.

    Dislike Farage, but he has the same tenacity that De Gaulle had. De Gaulle was hated by most of the French political and military staff. Same with Farage who is completely disliked by the Conservative Party and UK higher political class.

    De Gaulle insisted on an independent france like Nigel has been doing.

    Nigel is no saint of a politican, and he's just as globalist as the rest of the UK politicans are. The only difference is they ignored him and that's why he adopted this populist image.

    Nigel's made a big fat pension out of his whole career, he's become a multi-millionaire.

    And no John Oliver is no expert. He's a comedy late night show host that's clearly showing where he gets so much funding from so he can spout lies.

    Same with Steven Colbert etc. Political issues before Trump never mattered at all.
    Last edited by The Wandering Storyteller; August 04, 2019 at 03:26 PM.





















































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